Climate Change     Lecture given by Duncan Green     Head of Research at Oxfam GB Notre Dame University, September 2009Par...
Main messages   Climate change is fundamentally a development crisis:    the central poverty issue of our time   The sci...
Suffering the Science:The human costs of climate change                Climate change is affecting every                 ...
Hunger, agriculturalproductivity and water availability                  Rice and maize face significant drops           ...
Disasters and displacement                             Climate-related disasters – storms,                              f...
Health, labour productivity and trade                       Diseases like malaria and                        dengue fever...
The Science  Atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases        and global average temperatures
The Urgency              Greenhouse gas              emissions are              rising faster than              even worst...
So what do we do?   Adaptation: helping people to build their resilience    to climate change     – Adaptation is good de...
Adaptation in practice: Sahena’s story
Mitigation:If they lived like us…                              …and we lived like them Wouldn’t we expect them to cut thei...
Bali Action Plan                                   SHARED VISION                         Global emissions reduction pathwa...
The crunch moment: Copenhagen COP-15: 15th meeting of the 192 countries that signed the  UN Framework Convention on Clima...
Climate Change: make or break issues Financing offer from rich countries for mitigation and  adaptation in developing cou...
What do we need at Copenhagen?A SAFE and FAIR dealSAFE:  To reduce emissions sufficiently to avoid   catastrophic climate...
SAFE: Keep global warming well below 2ºC<2ºC target long-sinceaccepted by EU; G8 andMEF agree in L‟Aquila,July 2009450ppm-...
Who Pays? Responsibility and capability    Top 20 world polluters: per capita pollution and income
A fair share of the global mitigation effortOxfam say:Based on responsibility for historic emissions andcapability to pay,...
How much cash are we talking about?   Additional costs of mitigation in developing    countries:    $100 billion (c.€70 b...
How do we get emissions down?    Standards (e.g. emissions standards)    Subsidies    TaxesExamples of „market mechanis...
A FAIR and SAFE deal     Annex I countries have a DOUBLE DUTY:   - Reduce emissions by at least 40% by 2020   - Provide at...
Are there any Plan Bs?   Maybe 1500+ scientists are all wrong   Carbon apartheid and a New Dark Age   Geo-engineering
The Urgency of Now
Further Reading from the Blog   CC and Flooding in Bangladesh,    http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=676   Organic farmin...
Further Reading and Links   UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,    http://www.ipcc.ch   „What is the Economics...
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Climate Change, From Poverty to Power Lecture

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Part of a series of lectures by Duncan Green, Head of Research at Oxfam GB on key issues raised in his book From Poverty to Power.

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Climate Change, From Poverty to Power Lecture

  1. 1. Climate Change Lecture given by Duncan Green Head of Research at Oxfam GB Notre Dame University, September 2009Part of a series of From Poverty to Power lectures.
  2. 2. Main messages Climate change is fundamentally a development crisis: the central poverty issue of our time The scientific battle has been won – the debate now is over what to do about it A global framework for responding has now been agreed, but time is short to agree specifics The elements of this framework are Mitigation; Adaptation; Finance and Technology Key decisions are who acts, who pays and when Copenhagen meeting in December is make or break Plan Bs look pretty unattractive!
  3. 3. Suffering the Science:The human costs of climate change  Climate change is affecting every issue linked to poverty and development today, from access to food and water to health and security.  Without immediate action 50 years of development gains in poor countries will be permanently lost
  4. 4. Hunger, agriculturalproductivity and water availability  Rice and maize face significant drops in yields  Maize yields forecast to drop by 15% or more by 2020 in most of sub- Saharan Africa and India  South African government scientists predicting 50% drop in all cereal yields by 2080  Water supplies running out  Several major cities (Kathmandu, La Paz) which depend on glaciers may soon be unable to function  The Ganges basin alone is home to 500 million people
  5. 5. Disasters and displacement  Climate-related disasters – storms, floods, droughts and wildfires – increasing in frequency  375 million people at risk each year by 2015 – a 50% increase which could overwhelm humanitarian systems 26 million people already displaced 1 million more people displaced every year by weather-related events
  6. 6. Health, labour productivity and trade  Diseases like malaria and dengue fever are creeping into new areas  Heat stress a massive risk to farmers and outdoor workers  Uneven impacts on agriculture  US agricultural profits to rise by $1.3bn per year  Sub-Saharan Africa to lose $2bn per year as viability of just one crop - maize - declines
  7. 7. The Science Atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and global average temperatures
  8. 8. The Urgency Greenhouse gas emissions are rising faster than even worst case scenarios
  9. 9. So what do we do? Adaptation: helping people to build their resilience to climate change – Adaptation is good development – Best way is to build human security – Who pays? How much? Mitigation: cutting global emissions – Who cuts? How fast?
  10. 10. Adaptation in practice: Sahena’s story
  11. 11. Mitigation:If they lived like us… …and we lived like them Wouldn’t we expect them to cut their emissions faster?
  12. 12. Bali Action Plan SHARED VISION Global emissions reduction pathway and key principles of future action to confront climate change Mitigation Adaptation Finance TechnologyBinding emission Globally increased Search for new Increased co-operationreduction targets efforts to adapt the financial for the uptake and wide world to climate resources to help diffusion of cleanfor rich (Annex I) change, esp. in developing technologies countries developing countries both to countries mitigate and to Actions by adaptdeveloping (Non-Annex I) countriessupported by rich countries
  13. 13. The crunch moment: Copenhagen COP-15: 15th meeting of the 192 countries that signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) UNFCCC (drawn up at 1992 Rio Earth Summit): – Aims to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at levels that prevent dangerous climate change; effort to be shared based on principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” – Rich countries (Annex I) shall reduce their emissions first and fastest, and support developing countries in both mitigation and adaptation, by providing financial support and technology transfer – Developing countries‟ (Non-Annex I) actions to address emissions contingent upon support from rich countries
  14. 14. Climate Change: make or break issues Financing offer from rich countries for mitigation and adaptation in developing countries 2020 mitigation targets for rich (Annex I) countries
  15. 15. What do we need at Copenhagen?A SAFE and FAIR dealSAFE: To reduce emissions sufficiently to avoid catastrophic climate changeFAIR: So that rich countries finally take responsibility for the crisis they have created, committing to: - cut emissions first, furthest and fastest - financing for mitigation and adaptation in developing countries
  16. 16. SAFE: Keep global warming well below 2ºC<2ºC target long-sinceaccepted by EU; G8 andMEF agree in L‟Aquila,July 2009450ppm-eq gives 50/50chance of 2.0-2.4ºC riseEmissions must peakwithin next 5-10 years anddecline steeply thereafter to stay below 2ºC
  17. 17. Who Pays? Responsibility and capability Top 20 world polluters: per capita pollution and income
  18. 18. A fair share of the global mitigation effortOxfam say:Based on responsibility for historic emissions andcapability to pay, Annex I must: – Reduce emissions by at least 40% by 2020 AND – Provide financing for the additional costs of limiting emissions growth in developing countries
  19. 19. How much cash are we talking about? Additional costs of mitigation in developing countries: $100 billion (c.€70 billion) per year by 2020 Additional costs of adaptation: $50 billion (c.€40 billion) per year from today cf. global aid budget of about $100bn (or one AIG per year)
  20. 20. How do we get emissions down? Standards (e.g. emissions standards) Subsidies TaxesExamples of „market mechanisms‟ Cap and Trade (e.g. European Emissions Trading Scheme) – Issues: government will; free auctions; carve- outs; price volatility Offsetting – Issues: credibility; monitoring; leakage
  21. 21. A FAIR and SAFE deal Annex I countries have a DOUBLE DUTY: - Reduce emissions by at least 40% by 2020 - Provide at least $150 billion (€110 billion) in climate finance to developing countries to: - Limit the emissions growth in developing countries to the equivalent of Annex I reductions by 2020 - Adapt to the impacts of climate change
  22. 22. Are there any Plan Bs? Maybe 1500+ scientists are all wrong Carbon apartheid and a New Dark Age Geo-engineering
  23. 23. The Urgency of Now
  24. 24. Further Reading from the Blog CC and Flooding in Bangladesh, http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=676 Organic farming and CC, http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=395 What has CC done to the seasons?, http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=387 CC and natural disasters, http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=232 Building a low carbon economy, http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=187
  25. 25. Further Reading and Links UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://www.ipcc.ch „What is the Economics of Climate Change?‟ Stern Review, 2006 Oxfam America climate change campaign, http://www.oxfamamerica.org/issues/climate- change
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