© World Energy Council 2013
World Energy Scenarios
Composing Energy Futures to 2050
Prof. Karl Rose, Senior Director, WEC ...
© World Energy Council 2013
The scenarios are designed to
help a range of stakeholders to
address the “energy trilemma” –
...
© World Energy Council 2013
What are scenarios?
►portray a range of conceivable
outcomes and aid the
understanding of how ...
© World Energy Council 2013 4
Scenario Building Process
© World Energy Council 2013
 Two Scenarios stories, exploratory, different and equally
probable rather than good and bad
...
© World Energy Council 2013 6
Jazz
Highlighted results:
The share of fossils fuels in the total primary energy supply:
• I...
© World Energy Council 2013 7
Global total primary energy supply
JAZZ:
• Upstream liberalized;
• technology
development,
•...
© World Energy Council 2013 8
Electricity production by primary energy
JAZZ:
• coal: expected to
remain dominant
• gas: sh...
© World Energy Council 2013 9
Renewable electricity production
Jazz Symphony
Renewables undergo rapid
development, account...
© World Energy Council 2013 10
The global economy will be challenged to meet the 450 ppm target
without enormous economic ...
© World Energy Council 2013© World Energy Council 2013
Results for Europe
© World Energy Council 2013 12
Total primary energy supply: Europe
JAZZ:
• Functioning carbon
markets (albeit low
prices)....
© World Energy Council 2013 13
Electricity production by primary energy: Europe
JAZZ:
• Gas and coal to remain
an integral...
© World Energy Council 2013 14
Investment in Electricity Generation in Europe
Cumulative 2010-2050 in GW
0
1000
2000
3000
...
© World Energy Council 2013 15
Investment needs: Europe
Total investment is roughly 3 trillion in Jazz and 4 trillion in S...
© World Energy Council 2013
► Energy efficiency and energy conservation are absolutely
crucial in dealing with demand outs...
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World Energy Scenarios: Composing Energy Futures to 2050

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Presentation held by Karl Rose Senior Director of the World Energy Council, London regarding the publication made about the world's energy scenarios.

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World Energy Scenarios: Composing Energy Futures to 2050

  1. 1. © World Energy Council 2013 World Energy Scenarios Composing Energy Futures to 2050 Prof. Karl Rose, Senior Director, WEC London
  2. 2. © World Energy Council 2013 The scenarios are designed to help a range of stakeholders to address the “energy trilemma” – of achieving environmental sustainability, energy security and energy equity. WEC’s latest scenarios study: Comprises of two scenarios Stories quantified by Paul Scherrer Institute (project partner)
  3. 3. © World Energy Council 2013 What are scenarios? ►portray a range of conceivable outcomes and aid the understanding of how different factors can interact and shape the future. ►identify robust trends; „what-if‟ assumptions about future. Scenarios are not forecast. - Plausible, pertinent, alternative stories of the future which: Figure: The uncertainty funnel: WEC Scenarios are explorative, rather than normative
  4. 4. © World Energy Council 2013 4 Scenario Building Process
  5. 5. © World Energy Council 2013  Two Scenarios stories, exploratory, different and equally probable rather than good and bad  Jazz: Trade based, consumer driven, focussed on access and affordability. achieving growth through low cost energy. Governments facilitate GHG actions.  Symphony: Government led, voter driven, focussed on environmental goals and energy security, national and regional measures to increase share of renewables in energy mix. Binding international agreement on GHG emissions WEC Scenarios Deriving the scenario stories 5
  6. 6. © World Energy Council 2013 6 Jazz Highlighted results: The share of fossils fuels in the total primary energy supply: • In Jazz in 2050: 77% • In Symphony in 2050: 59% (cf. share of fossils in 2010: 80%) Global final energy demand: • Jazz 2050: 629 EJ • Symphony 2050: 491 EJ (cf. the demand in 2010: 373 EJ) Per capita electricity consumption will roughly double: • In Jazz by 2050: 5440kWh/y • In Symphony by 2050: 4600kWh/y (cf. consumption in 2010: 2580kWh/y) The cumulative CO₂ emissions are for 2010 to 2050: • Jazz: 2000Gt • Symphony: 1400Gt (cf. roughly 1000Gt from the period 1900-2004, source: www.wri.org)
  7. 7. © World Energy Council 2013 7 Global total primary energy supply JAZZ: • Upstream liberalized; • technology development, • supply surge/more producers • Coal remains dominant in some regions SYMPHONY: • Tighter supply (lower E&P) • Higher infrastructure costs • Energy security drives reduced fossil use 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050 EJ/y Renewables: output of electricity and heat; Biomass: primary supply incl. waste; Nuclear: 33% efficiency Renewables Hydro Biomass Nuclear Gas Oil Coal
  8. 8. © World Energy Council 2013 8 Electricity production by primary energy JAZZ: • coal: expected to remain dominant • gas: share increases (esp. N. America), • nuclear: mainly non- OECD SYMPHONY: • coal: share drops, CCS increasingly required • nuclear: increasing; led by governments • Renewables: stable & quicker transition0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050 TWh/y Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass (with CCS) Biomass Hydro Hydrogen Nuclear Gas Gas (with CCS) Oil Coal
  9. 9. © World Energy Council 2013 9 Renewable electricity production Jazz Symphony Renewables undergo rapid development, accounting for almost 50% of total electricity generation in 2050 (cf. 20% in 2010) Hydro and wind electricity are competitive. Renewables account for roughly 30% of total electricity generation by 2050.
  10. 10. © World Energy Council 2013 10 The global economy will be challenged to meet the 450 ppm target without enormous economic costs Resulting CO₂ emissions (black lines)
  11. 11. © World Energy Council 2013© World Energy Council 2013 Results for Europe
  12. 12. © World Energy Council 2013 12 Total primary energy supply: Europe JAZZ: • Functioning carbon markets (albeit low prices). • Biomass, wind and solar play a key role after 2030. SYMPHONY: • Energy policy implemented via a central mechanism • specific technologies chosen for investment (incl. CC(U)S) • The share of fossil fuels drops to 52% in 2050. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050 EJ/y Renewables Hydro Biomass Nuclear Gas Oil Coal
  13. 13. © World Energy Council 2013 13 Electricity production by primary energy: Europe JAZZ: • Gas and coal to remain an integral part of the electricity generation mix • Share of wind to increase SYMPHONY: • Significant share of nuclear in the electricity generation mix • Coal with CCS to emerge 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050 TWh/y Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass (with CCS) Biomass Hydro Hydrogen Nuclear Gas Gas (with CCS) Oil Coal Coal (with CCS)
  14. 14. © World Energy Council 2013 14 Investment in Electricity Generation in Europe Cumulative 2010-2050 in GW 0 1000 2000 3000 JAZZ SYMPHONY Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass (with CCS) Biomass Hydropower Hydrogen Nuclear Gas Gas (with CCS) Oil Coal Coal (with CCS) Symphony cumul. undiscounted investment: Jazz cumul. undiscounted investment: 4.4 3.3 trillion US$2010 trillion US$2010 JAZZ: • Investment needs are highest in wind, gas and coal SYMPHONY: • Investment needs in wind even higher than in the Jazz scenario, followed by gas and solar
  15. 15. © World Energy Council 2013 15 Investment needs: Europe Total investment is roughly 3 trillion in Jazz and 4 trillion in Symphony in European electricity generation, (2010-2050, USD2010, undiscounted)
  16. 16. © World Energy Council 2013 ► Energy efficiency and energy conservation are absolutely crucial in dealing with demand outstripping supply ► Coal remains a dominant fuel (especially in China and India), increasing challenges around CCS ► Natural gas will gain more importance in the energy share ► Oil will continue to be a dominant fuel in transport globally, but e-mobility will be strong in Europe ► Nuclear is not a game changer ► Wind: great economic potential of wind power in both scenarios ► Renewables: overall share will increase significantly Energy mix in 2050
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