Successful Adaptationto Coastal Climate ChangeIdentifying Effective Process andOutcome Characteristics and Practice-Relevant Metrics
The all-star, all-female, three-state Project Leadership Team Dr. Pamela Matson (PI)Stanford University Dr. Susanne Moser (lead co-PI)Susanne Moser Research & Consulting/Stanford Dr. Amy Snover (co-PI)University of Washington Dr. Hannah Gosnell (co-PI)Oregon State University
Central Question What does successful adaptation look like? …in different physical, ecological, socio- economic, institutional and cultural contexts that characterize coastal communities• Scientific perspective: What process and outcome elements could be considered?• Ethical/normative perspective: Which process and outcome elements should be considered?• Practical perspective: How can communities measure progress towards successful adaptation, both in the near and long-term?
An Increasingly Pressing Question Global sea level rise expected to accelerate with climate warming ~7-8 in 1900-2000 ~16 in by 2050 ~55 in by 2010
RationaleWhy do coastal managers want to know? To decide on a particular course of action To garner the necessary political and social support to commit scarce resources to adaptation To define defensible and measurable goals To assess trade-offs among different options To agree with coastal stakeholders on a preferable strategy To illustrate reasonable progress and be
Alignment with Sea GrantGoals National Sea Grant Program Vision: “people live along our coasts in harmony with the natural resources that attracted and sustain them” Sea Grant Core Values: - strong partnerships - integration of scientific expertise and research - active engagement of stakeholders - extension and education Touches all focal areas in the 2009-13 Strategic Plan
Project Approach Rooted in existing literature Stepwise engagement of scientists, and coastal practitioners Comparative approach ◦ WA, OR, CA practitioner workshops ◦ Perspectives from science and practice ◦ Extensive stakeholder engagement during and after project
Approach: Step-by-step1. Literature review - Scientific literature - Plans, policy documentsQuestions: What has been said to-date about adaptation success? What intentions about desirable processes or endpoints can be discerned? What dimensions of success are commonly delineated? What timeframes are (implicitly or explicitly) considered relevant for the determination of success? What criteria and metrics have been proposed to measure progress toward adaptation success? Over what temporal and geographic scales is success defined? What social, economic, and ecological endpoints and process aspects are considered? Are trade-offs recognized, and if so, how are they being discussed or handled? Is the prospect of unavoidable loss raised, and how is it treated? What, if anything, is unique concerning the coastal adaptation context?
Approach: Step-by-step (cont.) 2. Workshops ◦ - Science experts ◦ - Practitioners in each state (incl. preparatory interviews) ◦ - Capstone: Science and practitionersDay-long interaction and discussion:◦ Tabletop (pair and small group) activities, and group discussion to elicit participants’ mental models or top-of-mind elements of successful adaptation◦ Focus on persistent and vexing CZM challenges◦ Discuss success through various theoretical lenses◦ Explore metrics of success◦ Consider different time horizons◦ Examine trade offs◦ Explore possibility of developing guidelines, delineating principles, and providing a set of indicators (scorecards)
Expected OutcomesSpecific results of the project include: Clear categorization of “desirable” and undesirable” outcomes of coastal climate adaptation actions; Sophisticated articulation of desirable process characteristics (generically, or for particular stakeholders), and why; Guiding principles on how to assess adaptation options as to their traits, desirability, and potential trade-offs; Practical success metrics (e.g., existing or new “performance measures”)
Stakeholder Engagement Pre-workshop interviews with practitioners ◦ identify existing mental models ◦ support development of useful workshops Practitioner Engagement in Workshops Outreach to Coastal and Other Stakeholders after the Workshop Series ◦ Network of Sea Grant programs and extension ◦ Network of coastal and climate-focused organizations in each West Coast state ◦ Network of adaptation-focused organizations nationwide ◦ Local, state, federal and tribal policymakers through existing connections ◦ National Climate Assessment
Outputs 3 Practitioner workshops Peer-reviewed publications Lay audience publications (coastal magazines, etc.) Presentation templates for professional and lay audiences p/vodcasts for public and stakeholders Conference presentations Briefings with policymakers
Acknowledgments:•Steve Adams, AdinaAbeles, Stacy Vynne,and Lara Whitley-Binderin developing andexecuting this project.•The West Coast Sea YOUR QUESTIONS?Grant programs for corefunding, and all partnerinstitutions for matchingfunds.