José Cordeiro
www.cordeiro.org
Director, Venezuela Node
The Millennium Project
www.millennium-project.org
Enclosed CD contains over 6,000 pages:
The State of the Future is an
informative publication that
gives invaluable insight...
 Introduction (Jerome Glenn)
 The Millennium Project
 Objectives of the study
 The Method (Theodore Gordon)
 Real Tim...
1. Creates a global and on-going capacity to improve
thinking about the future
2. Makes that thinking available through a ...
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct
interviews, special research, workshops, sy...
 The factors that made such changes are
changing faster now, than 20 years ago
 Therefore, the next 20 years should make...
 Possibilities of improving efficiency, access,
and depth of education and learning, in
areas such as:
 Transferring kno...
 Likelihood of occurrence by 2030
 Narrative comments on encouraging
and inhibiting developments
 Potential consequence...
 A method of collecting and synthesizing
expert judgments
 Not an opinion poll
 Involves sequential questionnaires
 Us...
 Stems from a DARPA study
 Displays inputs in real time
 Permits revisits during the study
 Web based
 Some applicati...
“As you answer questions about the likelihood of
future developments, please consider what has
happened in the last 25 yea...
Number Possible Development Likelihood by 2030 (%)
1
National programs for improving collective
intelligence
Some richer a...
6. Improved individual nutrition
Self-administered diagnostic tests identify individualized nutrition requirements
for imp...
1. What might encourage this possibility? What positive consequences might follow?
Please enter positive developments and ...
Number of Responses
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
29-
Nov
9-Dec 19-
Dec
29-
Dec
8-Jan 18-
Jan
28-
Jan
7-Feb
Date
Number
Total S...
Employment
Author, 3.2
Consultant, 15.8
Private Sector,
12.1
Government, 9.2
NGO, 5.5
University, 33
IO, 3.3
Other, 17.6
A...
1. National programs for improving collective intelligence
2. Just in time knowledge and learning
3. Individualized educat...
Web 17.0
Integrated life-long learning systems
Chemistry for brain enhancement
Just in time knowledge and learning
Use of ...
 Most Likely:
 Web 17.0
 Integrated life-long learning systems
 Chemistry for brain enhancement
 Just in time knowled...
 The average judgments about likelihood range:
 from 79 percent (Web 17.0, an advanced form of
Internet)
 to 30 percent...
1 2 3 4 5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percent of Responses in Each Quintile
Artificial Microbes
Web 17
Synapse Mapping
MIT: Laptop US$100 (€100, £100)
 Curriculum (e.g. teach morals, rational scientific
thinking)
 Methods and Tools (e.g. universal translators, contests
i...
1. National programs for improving collective intelligence
encouraging and positive
I recently discussed this with senior ...
 Teaching of morals, futures, and if possible, wisdom.
 Routine measurement of characteristics other than intelligence
...
 The costs and distribution of advantageous
possibilities.
 How the developments might conflict with culture and
thus af...
 Can simulations be so real and captivating that real life
loses its significance?
 Will intelligent machines think and ...
 Special attention needs to be given to the method of
introducing these advances so that gaps and negative
consequences a...
 A shift to a collective intelligence appears underway, (e.g.
”mass on-line collaboration, open source software, knowledg...
 Just in time information can make everyone who has access
more expert and people who are not deeply expert can
appear to...
The brain:
The final frontier?
 Reptilian (primitive):
instincts
 Limbic (paleomammalian):
emotions
 Neocortex (neomammalian):
intelligence
Riken Brain Science Institute
www.brain.riken.go.jp
Riken Brain Science Institute
www.brain.riken.go.jp
What can a brain do?
 1 brain
 1011
neurons
 1014
synapses
 1017
operations
(per second)
 And the mind?
 And the spi...
Connecting all humanity
Singularity University
www.singularity.com
Bill Gates
Hwang’s Law (Samsung)
NBIC (Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno)
National Science Foundation
Department of Commerce
Neurones
Cogno
NBIC
Bio
Info
Cells
Technological convergence NBIC
Nano
Bits
Atoms
2008
2029
2050
Wikipedia
 First Law: When a distinguished but elderly
scientist states that something is possible, he is
almost certainly right. W...
Enclosed CD contains over 6,000 pages:
The State of the Future is an
informative publication that
gives invaluable insight...
Thank you! Muchas gracias!
jose.cordeiro@singularityu.o
rg
Cordeiro education2030berkeleyopensciencesummit2010
Cordeiro education2030berkeleyopensciencesummit2010
Cordeiro education2030berkeleyopensciencesummit2010
Cordeiro education2030berkeleyopensciencesummit2010
Cordeiro education2030berkeleyopensciencesummit2010
Cordeiro education2030berkeleyopensciencesummit2010
Cordeiro education2030berkeleyopensciencesummit2010
Cordeiro education2030berkeleyopensciencesummit2010
Cordeiro education2030berkeleyopensciencesummit2010
Cordeiro education2030berkeleyopensciencesummit2010
Cordeiro education2030berkeleyopensciencesummit2010
Cordeiro education2030berkeleyopensciencesummit2010
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Cordeiro education2030berkeleyopensciencesummit2010

  1. 1. José Cordeiro www.cordeiro.org Director, Venezuela Node The Millennium Project www.millennium-project.org
  2. 2. Enclosed CD contains over 6,000 pages: The State of the Future is an informative publication that gives invaluable insights into the future for the United Nations, its Member States, and civil society. Ban Ki-moon Secretary-General United Nations 15 Global Challenges Education and Learning 2030 State of the Future Index Environmental Security 700 Annotated Scenario Sets and much more futures intelligence on technology, environment, governance, and the human condition
  3. 3.  Introduction (Jerome Glenn)  The Millennium Project  Objectives of the study  The Method (Theodore Gordon)  Real Time Delphi  Application to Education in 2030  The Results (Jerome Glenn)  Key Possibilities  Conclusions  Comments (José Cordeiro)  Figures and observations
  4. 4. 1. Creates a global and on-going capacity to improve thinking about the future 2. Makes that thinking available through a variety of media for consideration in: • policymaking • advanced training • educational curricula • public education 3. Responds continually to feedback, in order to accumulate wisdom about potential futures
  5. 5. Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training. Cyber Node Washington, DC Buenos Aires Cairo London Prague Moscow Rome Madurai Tokyo Beijing Tehran Sao Paulo Caracas Helsinki Paris New Delhi Calgary Silicon Valley Berlin Kuwait Pretoria/Johannesburg Sydney Mexico City SeoulIstanbul Tel-Aviv Baku Bogotá Ottawa Lima
  6. 6.  The factors that made such changes are changing faster now, than 20 years ago  Therefore, the next 20 years should make the speed of change over the last 20 years seem slow  This acceleration and volume of change… SHOULD change what we believe is possible for the next 20 years
  7. 7.  Possibilities of improving efficiency, access, and depth of education and learning, in areas such as:  Transferring knowledge  Improving intelligence  Training  Socialization  Technology  Institutional change  Delivery methods
  8. 8.  Likelihood of occurrence by 2030  Narrative comments on encouraging and inhibiting developments  Potential consequences of these possibilities  Other possibilities
  9. 9.  A method of collecting and synthesizing expert judgments  Not an opinion poll  Involves sequential questionnaires  Usually time consuming
  10. 10.  Stems from a DARPA study  Displays inputs in real time  Permits revisits during the study  Web based  Some applications to date  Global Energy Scenarios 2020  Millennium Project Priorities  Decision making  Education and Learning 2030
  11. 11. “As you answer questions about the likelihood of future developments, please consider what has happened in the last 25 years: the acceleration of systems that transfer information, growing knowledge of the functioning of the brain and the genetic basis for development. Things not dreamed of 25 years ago are commonplace today. You are encouraged to be adventurous in your thinking and speculate about the futures of education and learning that are based on an acceleration of today's acceleration.”
  12. 12. Number Possible Development Likelihood by 2030 (%) 1 National programs for improving collective intelligence Some richer as well as lower income countries have (by this year of 2030) made improving collective intelligence a national goal; this includes improving individual as well as intelligence for their nations-as- whole. Click here to see references Likelihood by 2030 The average group answer: 61,7 Respondents: 195 Comments on this possibility (page 2) click here 2 Just in time knowledge and learning Rote learning has diminished in importance. With ubiquitous computing and education for life-long learning, 'just in time knowledge' has become the norm. Reasoning, problem solving, and learning strategies form the core focus of public educational systems. Click here to see references Likelihood by 2030 The average group answer: 71.1 Respondents: 185 Comments on this possibility (page 2) click here
  13. 13. 6. Improved individual nutrition Self-administered diagnostic tests identify individualized nutrition requirements for improved cognitive development. These tests are used in the more affluent areas and are beginning to be used in lower income areas with government and insurance company support. 7. Genetically increased intelligence Genes that contribute to increasing intelligence and learning have been identified and used by many parents in the upper and middle classes of the world to change the potential intelligence of their future children. Treatments have been subsidized for many people in the poorer regions. 8. Use of global on-line simulations as a primary social science research tool Virtual realities like Second Life (which in 2006 had more than a million and a half inhabitants) are used by leading cognitive scientists, curriculum experts, behavioral scientists to evolve the equivalent of natural laws for social behavior and new tele-virtual educational simulations. In these e-universes, people act as societies, form laws, build new cultures and provide a means to experiment with the glue of society without concerns that might accompany human experimentation.
  14. 14. 1. What might encourage this possibility? What positive consequences might follow? Please enter positive developments and consequences. If you wish to change your prior input, type it here: There is a great need for this I believe ***1. In our opinion, knowledge is the result of the epistemological process of human brain triggered by information from the surroundings. What i possible is that a group of persons, preferably comprehensively developed, in a community with shared goals work together, a syne generated yielding results greater than the sum of its parts, often awesome. We firmly believe that this cooperation will be widely spr around the world by the year 2030. ***I believe that public and private investments in social aspects an in education of the members of the society they can contribute. ***complex and urgent national and international problems and disa
  15. 15. Number of Responses 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 29- Nov 9-Dec 19- Dec 29- Dec 8-Jan 18- Jan 28- Jan 7-Feb Date Number Total Sign-ins Answ ering at Least 1 question
  16. 16. Employment Author, 3.2 Consultant, 15.8 Private Sector, 12.1 Government, 9.2 NGO, 5.5 University, 33 IO, 3.3 Other, 17.6 Author Consultant Private Sector Government NGO University IO Other Region Europe, 26.7 Latin America, 20.5 Middle East, 2.6 North Africa, 0.7 North America, 34.3 Pacific Asia, 4.8 South East Asia, 6.2 Sub Sahara Africa, 4 Europe Latin America Middle East North Africa North America Pacific Asia South East Asia Sub Sahara Africa
  17. 17. 1. National programs for improving collective intelligence 2. Just in time knowledge and learning 3. Individualized education 4. Use of simulations 5. Continuous evaluation to prevent instability and/or becoming mentally ill. 6. Improved individual nutrition 7. Genetically increased intelligence 8. Use of global on-line simulations as a primary social science research 9. Use of public communications to reinforce pursuit of knowledge 10. Portable artificial intelligence 11. Complete mapping of human synapses to discover how learning occurs 12. Means for keeping adult brains healthier for longer 13. Chemistry for brain enhancement 14. Web 17.0 15. Integrated life-long learning systems 16. Programs aimed at eliminating prejudice and hate 17. e-Teaching 18. Smarter than human 19. Artificial microbes enhance intelligence
  18. 18. Web 17.0 Integrated life-long learning systems Chemistry for brain enhancement Just in time knowledge and learning Use of public communications to reinforc Use of simulations e- Teaching Means for keeping adult brains healthier Individualized education Improved individual nutrition Global on-line simulations National programs for improving collecti Portable artificial intelligence devices Smarter than human computers Programs aimed at eliminating prejudice Continuous evaluation of individual learn Complete mapping of human synapses t Genetically increased intelligence Artificial microbes enhance intelligence 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Likelihood
  19. 19.  Most Likely:  Web 17.0  Integrated life-long learning systems  Chemistry for brain enhancement  Just in time knowledge and learning  Use of public communications to reinforce pursuit of knowledge  Use of simulations  Least Likely  Genetically increased intelligence  Artificial microbes enhance intelligence
  20. 20.  The average judgments about likelihood range:  from 79 percent (Web 17.0, an advanced form of Internet)  to 30 percent (artificial microbes for enhancing intelligence)  Almost all items had at least a respondent or two who:  thought that the likelihood was zero  thought the likelihood was about 100 percent  A relatively high order of agreement  with standard deviations ranging from 17.5 percent (the likelihood of an advanced Internet, Web 17.0)  to the highest standard deviation, 27% (the likelihood of smarter than human computers)
  21. 21. 1 2 3 4 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Percent of Responses in Each Quintile Artificial Microbes Web 17 Synapse Mapping
  22. 22. MIT: Laptop US$100 (€100, £100)
  23. 23.  Curriculum (e.g. teach morals, rational scientific thinking)  Methods and Tools (e.g. universal translators, contests involving student projects)  Administration and Institutions (e.g. tapping the capacity of groups, tele-commuting)  The Students (e.g. early childhood development, flattening of the demographic pyramid)
  24. 24. 1. National programs for improving collective intelligence encouraging and positive I recently discussed this with senior officials in South Korea, who agreed that this would be a good goal to add to the Ministry of Education. It may not happen, but this increases the likelihood that it will occur before 2030 Venezuela had such a program in the 1980's, which was unfortunately discontinued by the following governments. The opportunities are incredible, not just to increase human potential, but also human-machine capabilities. Leadership that respects and encourages free thought and the rights of the individual (male and female, and of all religious and political backgrounds) is necessary to foster the improvement of collective intelligence. I doubt that this will occur on a national basis in the USA. It may occur in some Asian countries as they will likely determine that this is a method to improve their standing in the world, both in terms of respect and economic power.
  25. 25.  Teaching of morals, futures, and if possible, wisdom.  Routine measurement of characteristics other than intelligence  The capacity to discard the unnecessary and transform useful information into effective and productive realities.  Cross-cultural and cross-religious teaching if only to enable young minds to build their own opinions and make their personal decisions.  Training in rational scientific thinking : truth will not come from religion but from science.  Future studies, since human action is future-oriented.
  26. 26.  The costs and distribution of advantageous possibilities.  How the developments might conflict with culture and thus affect their acceptability.  The threat of unexpected consequences (particularly for biologic possibilities)  The use of the developments to promote evil intent  The reactionary impediments of existing institutions
  27. 27.  Can simulations be so real and captivating that real life loses its significance?  Will intelligent machines think and reason in ways that are different than human thinking?  Will people migrate to countries that offer a means of increasing intelligence?  Does everybody become smarter, or does the gap grow?  Are the less intelligent made smarter, thereby raising the average or is everybody boosted?
  28. 28.  Special attention needs to be given to the method of introducing these advances so that gaps and negative consequences are reduced.  The lack of universal availability may be due to cost, political pressures or reactions from existing institutions.  Some political regimes will view new educational capacities as a threat to their power.  The advent of learning enhancing drugs may result in a drug competition race and raise questions about the distribution and the ethics of charging for so important a commodity.  It is possible that an international competition in intelligence may develop.
  29. 29.  A shift to a collective intelligence appears underway, (e.g. ”mass on-line collaboration, open source software, knowledge creation communities…”)  The drive to collective intelligence may give rise to its counterforce: an effort by outstanding individuals to opt out of the “collective” (anti-borg)  Developments lead to counter developments; e.g. portable artificial intelligence devices may lead to anti-artificial intelligence devices to protect individuality.  Improvements in intelligence will make even the bad guys smarter.  When teaching goes on line, computer hacking into the curriculum and will be an issue.
  30. 30.  Just in time information can make everyone who has access more expert and people who are not deeply expert can appear to be so.  Since nutrition is "natural" compared to cognition enhancement drugs, it is likely to be easier to accept.  Cultural differences may lead one nation to adopt technologies that lead to increased intelligence while other countries reject them based on cultural taboos or beliefs.  Genetic techniques might be used to remove or modify genes that result in lower intelligence
  31. 31. The brain: The final frontier?
  32. 32.  Reptilian (primitive): instincts  Limbic (paleomammalian): emotions  Neocortex (neomammalian): intelligence
  33. 33. Riken Brain Science Institute www.brain.riken.go.jp
  34. 34. Riken Brain Science Institute www.brain.riken.go.jp
  35. 35. What can a brain do?  1 brain  1011 neurons  1014 synapses  1017 operations (per second)  And the mind?  And the spirit?  And the soul?
  36. 36. Connecting all humanity
  37. 37. Singularity University
  38. 38. www.singularity.com Bill Gates
  39. 39. Hwang’s Law (Samsung)
  40. 40. NBIC (Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno) National Science Foundation Department of Commerce
  41. 41. Neurones Cogno NBIC Bio Info Cells Technological convergence NBIC Nano Bits Atoms
  42. 42. 2008 2029 2050 Wikipedia
  43. 43.  First Law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.  Second Law: The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.  Third Law: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
  44. 44. Enclosed CD contains over 6,000 pages: The State of the Future is an informative publication that gives invaluable insights into the future for the United Nations, its Member States, and civil society. Ban Ki-moon Secretary-General United Nations 15 Global Challenges Education and Learning 2030 State of the Future Index Environmental Security 700 Annotated Scenario Sets and much more futures intelligence on technology, environment, governance, and the human condition
  45. 45. Thank you! Muchas gracias! jose.cordeiro@singularityu.o rg
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