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Economics of Solar: PG&E Focus

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This class helps PV dealers, installers, and salespeople make the best and most accurate financial case to their customers to help them make more sales and open more eyes to the value of solar …

This class helps PV dealers, installers, and salespeople make the best and most accurate financial case to their customers to help them make more sales and open more eyes to the value of solar systems.

Andy Black will provide an overview of solar electric (PV) system costs and approximate savings for residential systems. He will provide detailed information on state & federal incentives available and how to apply and use them. These include rebates, performance based incentives, and tax credits. He will explain the choices for electric rate structures and the advantages of each relative to building load profile, system design, and site specifics (shading, orientation, etc). Andy will discuss the various methods of performing financial analyses in conjunction with the savings realized. Financial analysis methods presented will include Simple Payback, Total Lifecycle Payback, Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Cash Flow analysis, and Appraisal Resale Value. Interactive examples of residential sites will be provided, including discussion of the salient differences and advantages of each method. The assumptions and variables that affect each analysis will also be presented including inflation, maintenance expenses, and interest rates.

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  • 1. Andy Black “Economics of Solar: Solar Financial Analyst (408) 428 0808x1 Making The Financial Case” andy@ongrid.net Check-in (15 minutes before listed start time) Introductions Solar Financial Payback - Overview of the Variables Economics Break, Q & A, Networking Overview of the Variables (con’t) Rate Structures ~12:00 Lunch, Q & A, Networking (~45 minutes) Overview of the Variables (con’t) System Performance Financial Analysis Methods Break, Q & A, Networking Tools: Solar Financial Analysis, Sales, and Other Tools ~4:30 Formal Conclusion, Break, Q & A Interactive Examples (for those who wish to stay) Using the OnGrid Solar Financial ToolDiligence: Heights by great men reached and kept were not obtained by sudden flight, but they, while their companions slept, were toiling upward in the night. - Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
  • 2. Andy Black “Economics of Solar: Solar Financial Analyst (408) 428 0808x1 Making The Financial Case” andy@ongrid.netAbstract:This class helps PV dealers, installers, and salespeople make the best and most accurate financial case totheir customers to help them make more sales and open more eyes to the value of solar systems.Andy Black will provide an overview of solar electric (PV) system costs and approximate savings forresidential systems. He will provide detailed information on state & federal incentives available andhow to apply and use them. These include rebates, performance based incentives, and tax credits. Hewill explain the choices for electric rate structures and the advantages of each relative to building loadprofile, system design, and site specifics (shading, orientation, etc). Andy will discuss the variousmethods of performing financial analyses in conjunction with the savings realized. Financial analysismethods presented will include Simple Payback, Total Lifecycle Payback, Internal Rate of Return(IRR), Cash Flow analysis, and Appraisal Resale Value. Interactive examples of residential sites will beprovided, including discussion of the salient differences and advantages of each method. Theassumptions and variables that affect each analysis will also be presented including inflation,maintenance expenses, and interest rates.An overview of the various tools available on the market for assisting the dealer, installer or salespersonin making the case and the sale to a customer will conclude with an in depth look at the OnGrid Toolthat Andy created for use by the industry. If time allows, group exercises using OnGrid will be availableto try cases and see how a powerful presentation can be created.All students will receive a copy of the demo version of the OnGrid Tool (licensing agreement will berequired). Focused on residential, serves as a prerequisite for “Commercial Solar Economics &Financing with PPAs and Leases.”Biography:Andy Black is a Solar Financial Analyst and the owner of OnGrid Solar. OnGrid Solar providesfinancial analysis and sales education & software to solar installers to help them make a strong salescase for solar electricity to their customers. Andy has more than a dozen years of design, consulting,teaching, sales, and research experience in solar. He specializes in demonstrating the financial paybackof solar electricity systems. He is a former NABCEP certified solar installer.Andy Black is a recent member of the Board of Directors of the American Solar Energy Society andserved as Chapters Representative. He is also a member of the Advisory Board of the NorthernCalifornia Solar Energy Association.Andy’s formal education includes a Bachelor’s in Electrical Engineering from Penn State University, aMaster’s in Electrical Engineering from University of Southern California, and a Marketing Certificateat the University of California. His training in solar electricity includes Solar Energy International’sintensive photovoltaic coursework and more than a dozen specialty courses in solar electric and relatedfields. He presents regularly on the financial analysis of solar electricity to audiences nationwide.Andy is also the groundskeeper and servant for a cat at his home in San Jose, CA.Contact Info: Andy Black, CEO OnGrid Solar 4175 Renaissance Dr #4, San Jose, CA 95134 (408) 428 0808x1 andy@ongrid.net www.ongrid.net
  • 3. SOLAR ECONOMICS: Introductions & Thanks MAKING THE FINANCIAL CASE !  Solar Power International ‘10 Andy Black !  Solar Electric Power Association Solar Financial Analyst "  Stuart Raper & Julia Hamm & Sales Software Creator !  Yennie Solheim !  Andy Black, OnGrid Solar "  Solar Financial Analyst & OnGrid Tool Creator Solar Power International 2010 !  You for coming! © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 2 NIMBY A Volunteer Please? !  Who’s hear of NIMBY? !  You are BANANAs! "  Plague to many large or public projects from garbage dumps & oil refineries to renewables such as wind farms !  You are all BANANAs!© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 3 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 4 Add picture of classroom full of bananas Quick Survey – What BANANA Variety of Good Bananas Are Here? !  Anyone know what BANANA means? !  Existing dealer / installers "  Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near !  Salesperson for dealer / installer Anything "  Including owners if you do sales !  You are good BANANAs !  New or hopeful dealer / installers "  Small & rooftop solar is exempt from !  New or hopeful salespeople BANANA scrutiny !  Government, Utility "  Your future is more secure because the !  Customers / end users public supports and doesn’t protest this kind of renewable energy !  Manufacturers ….so, go BANANAs! !  Others?© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 5 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 6
  • 4. Quick Survey - Instructor Background Your Goals for Today? !  Electrician’s Helper 3 summers !  Learn about payback for general knowledge !  M.S. Electrical Engineering !  Want to use payback in selling / grow !  SEI graduate business !  NABCEP Certified Solar PV Installer Emeritus !  Want to learn about / have the OnGrid Tool !  Involved with Solar since 1991 !  Want to increase your knowledge to develop !  Studying, writing, & presenting about Solar your own tool Financial Issues since 2000 !  Other goals? !  Solar Salesperson 2001-2006 !  Networking list? !  Now a Solar Financial Analyst & Economics of Solar PV - 7 Creator of the “OnGrid Tool” solar sales software8 - Economics of Solar PV© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Resources Decorum Resources available at www.ongrid.net !  Questions: Please focus on Solar Economics & Payback !  Articles & papers on solar “Payback” !  Good environment: !  Upcoming classes & events "  Cell phones to fun mode "  Financing Solar PV including PPAs & Leases "  Side conversations: Yes or No? "  Sales & Marketing for Solar "  Please help each other !  Slides from past classes !  Site Logistics & Breaks !  Free demos of the OnGrid Tool "  Facilities "  Lunch & 2 breaks: Networking© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 9 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 10 Agenda Prepare Interactive Examples !  Overview of the Variables !  Examples in Solar Financial Analysis Tool !  Financial Analysis Methods !  Please prepare some cases !  Parameters: !  Solar Tools !  Interactive Examples "  Usage, System Size, Price "  Inflation Handouts & Acronyms "  Starting & Ending rate schedule Questions preferred at points marked: "  % on-peak usage "  Please focus on Payback Questions? !  Free Demo - License Agreements© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 11 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 12
  • 5. Financial Payback !  Payback on solar isn’t the most important thing… Solar Financial Payback !  … it’s the only thing the vast majority of potential solar purchasers care about© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 13 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 14 Right or Wrong Attractive Economics PV systems can be financially attractive to !  95% see energy as a commodity customers using enough electricity: !  Few will pay more > $80/mo in CA !  Must meet them on their terms: > $60/mo in NJ > $90/mo in CT $$ FINANCIAL! $$ Attractive defined as: "  Rate of Return > 10% "  Property Value Increase > System Cost "  Bill Savings > Loan Cost© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 15 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 16 Payback Analysis Agenda Why is it Needed? !  Overview of the Variables If we’re going "  Costs & Incentives to put solar on "  Rate Structures every roof, it "  System Performance needs to make !  Financial Analysis Methods $ense. !  Solar Tools Courtesy Sharp Electronics !  Interactive Examples© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 17 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 18
  • 6. Agenda Incentives Pre-Exercise !  Overview of the Variables !  Common “up-front” incentives (2): "  Costs & Incentives _________________________________________ "  Rate Structures "  System Performance !  Common incentives received when taxes are filed (3): _________________________________________ !  Financial Analysis Methods !  Solar Tools !  Common incentives received over time (3): !  Interactive Examples _________________________________________© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 18 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 19 System Costs System Costs - Size Depend on: !  Typical range $7-$11/ CEC AC watt thru 10/2008 "  = $6-$9/ STC DC watt (1 W DC ! .83 W AC) !  System size (per watt) "  Includes parts, installation labor, profit, warranty "  Simplest composition shingle roofs: Doesn’t include !  Mounting: roof, ground, trellis “adders” for harder jobs (tile, steep, etc). !  Special factors !  Commercial & Municipal: $5-$8 /CEC AC watt "  $4.00-$6.50/Watt STC DC (1 W DC =~ .83 W AC) "  $4.00/W STC is typical for 500kW+ !  Most residential now: $6-$9/CEC AC watt !  Some economies of scale© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 20 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 21 California Price Trends 2000-2010 System Costs - Ongoing? $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 Top Line Average Price !  Maintenance: 0.25% of system gross cost per year, $ / CEC Watt $8.00 increasing with inflation $6.00 Net Cost to Consumer after "  It’s in there one way or the other (cost of cleaning, Rebate (excluding ITC) $4.00 vs. loss in performance from dirty system) $2.00 Rebate !  Inverter Replacement: ~$700/kW at year ~15 $- !  Property Tax 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 "  Often exempt for original purchaser !  Price Trends 2003-2008 "  Germany & Spain Questions? !  Fire/Loss Insurance !  Price Declines Since 11/2008 and Predictions "  Ask your insurer, sometimes = $0 "  Down ~$1 by 5/2009; Down ~$1.50-$2 by 12/2009, but varies Questions?© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 22 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 23
  • 7. Incentives Performance Related Incentives !  Feed-In Tariffs !  Types of Performance Related Incentives: !  PBIs & RECs "  FITs – Feed-In Tariffs "  PBIs – Performance Based Incentives !  Rebates "  SRECs – Solar Renewable Energy Certificates !  Tax Benefits & Issues !  Incentives paid for actual kWh produced !  Net Metering (in Electric Rates section) "  Missed production reduces incentive received "  Motivates attention on the system !  For incentives in other states see the "  Monitoring – A Must! DSIRE database: www.dsireusa.org© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 24 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 25 Residential Incentives FITs: Feed-In Tariffs !  FITs are the only ongoing payment for owning the system "  No Net Metering savings (no savings on the electric bill, which makes FITs different from PBIs and SRECs) "  FITs do combine with the Federal Investment Tax Credit !  Very popular in Europe, Ontario. Becoming popular in U.S. (FL,VT, … national?) !  Risk losing Net Metering© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 26 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 27 Commercial Incentives PBIs & RECs !  PBI: Performance Based Incentive !  REC: Renewable Energy Credits (Green Value - more later), usually called SRECs !  Paid in addition to Net Metering savings on the bill (which makes them different from FITs)© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 28 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 29
  • 8. Residential Incentives© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 1 Commercial Incentives© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 2
  • 9. SRECs, Green Tags, TRCs REC / SREC Value !  SRECs = Solar Renewable Energy Credits/Certificates !  TRC = Tradable Renewable Certificates !  SRECs have value to other consumers !  Green Tags = RECs = TRCs = SRECs "  Those who can’t/won’t get solar directly #  Green-e Certified RECs: www.green-e.org !  What are these? "  Utilities who need to get into compliance with "  The green value part of a solar kWh government RPS requirements "  The legal rights to greenness Electricity (kWh) #  Programs or government authorized trading boards Generating Plant !  Value ranges from 1¢ to 68¢/kWh (kWh) "  Depends on location, type & term "  Depends on state mandate for S-RECs Green Tags (kWh)© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 30 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 31 Residential Incentives Rebates !  Up-Front Reductions in System Cost !  Rebates are paid in addition to savings on the bill "  Typically received 30-120 days after inspection© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 32 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 33 CSI PBI: CSI EPBB Rebate Performance Based Incentive !  EPBB: Expected Performance Based Buydown "  Adjusted for Expected Performance: !  Paid for all kWh produced for first 5 years #  Tilt, Orientation, Shading, Location, Module "  Actual performance (risk) Temperature (due to lack of air flow) !  Does not reduce upfront cost (in lieu of rebate) #  EPBB Design Factor Calculator: www.csi-epbb.com #  Design Factor allows up to 100% of base incentive "  Still get savings on electric bill "  Upfront payment to reduce initial cost !  Monitoring requirements: Add’l 2% accurate "  Popular option for systems under 30kW "  Add’l cost ~$30/mo + $1,000-$2000 for meter !  Energy Efficiency Audit required !  Option for systems up to 30kW !  Only CSI incentive for systems over 30kW !  Meter Required: Inverter built-in (5% accurate) is ok Questions?© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 34 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 35
  • 10. CSI Trigger Tracker Step Statewide MW in Step EPBB Payments (per Watt) Residential Commercial Government / PBI Payments (per kWh) EPBB Payments (per Watt) Residential Commercial Government / Tax Benefit Overview PBI Payments (per kWh) Non-Profit Non-Profit 1 50 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Government Government 2 70 $2.50 Statewide $2.50 $3.25 $0.39 $0.39 $0.50 Step Residential Commercial / Residential Commercial / !  State Tax Credits 3 100 $2.20 $2.20 $2.95 $0.34 $0.34 $0.46 4 130 $1.90 MW in Step $1.90 $2.65 $0.26 $0.26 $0.37 5 6 160 190 $1.55 $1.10 $1.55 $1.10 $2.30 $1.85 $0.22 $0.15 $0.22 $0.15 $0.32 $0.26 Non-Profit Non-Profit 7 8 215 250 1 $0.65 $0.35 50 $0.65 $0.35 $1.40 $1.10 n/a $0.09 $0.05 $0.09 $0.05 $0.19 $0.15 n/a n/a Federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) & 1603 !  n/a n/a n/a 9 285 2 $0.25 70 $0.25 $0.90 $2.50 $0.03 $0.03 $2.50 $0.12 $3.25 $0.39 $0.39 $0.50 10 350 3 $0.20 100 $0.20 $0.70 $2.20 $0.03 Issued $0.03 $0.10 $2.20 $2.95Treasury Grant $0.34 $0.34 $0.46 Unused MW Revised MW 4 Step in Step130 Previous Total MW in Reservation Remaining Customer Current Initial MW $1.90 Conditional MW $1.90 $2.65 $0.26 $0.26 $0.37 !  Federal & State Depreciation Administrator from Under Class * Steps Step Review 5 7 Residential 31.00 160 0.99 31.99 $1.55 (MW) Letters 27.38 4.61 $1.55 6.40 $2.30 $0.22 $0.22 $0.32 PGE Non- 6 8 Residential 73.20 190 2.18 75.38 $1.10 14.61 60.76 $1.10 12.85 $1.85 $0.15taxable entities (not schools, !  Only apply to $0.15 $0.26 Non- 7 215 1.89 $0.65 $0.65 $1.40 $0.09 $0.09 $0.19 Residential 5 24.30 0.37 24.67 11.78 12.89 1.49 SCE Residential 8 7 Residential 7 66.30 7.30 250 0.20 68.19 7.50 $0.35 37.96 5.53 30.23 1.96 21.99 $0.35 0.81 $1.10non-profits, gov’t, etc) $0.05 $0.05 $0.15 CCSE 9 7 14.80 285 3.22 18.02 $0.25 $0.25 $0.90 $0.03 $0.03 $0.12 Non- 15.90 2.12 1.59 Residential Trigger Tracker website: 350 10 http://www.csi-trigger.com As of 10/9/10 $0.20 $0.20 Disclaimer: I’m $0.03CPA or lawyer, and am not providing $0.70 not a $0.03 $0.10 Program Data & Statistics: http://csi.powerclerk.com tax advice. Seek qualified professional help© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 36 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 37 Residential Incentives State & Local Tax Incentives !  Tax Credit vs. Tax Deduction "  E.g.. HI: 35% State ITC NY: 25% State ITC up to $5K or 10kW "  !  In practice, worth about 65-80% of face value due to reduced federal deduction of the now reduced state taxes "  Effectively “federally taxed” !  Property Tax Exemption: CA - Com & Res to 2016© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 38 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 39 Federal Investment Federal Investment Tax Credit - Residential 2009+ Tax Credit - Commercial !  30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC), Sect 25D !  30% Investment Tax Credit - Extended 10/2008 "  No Cap (unlimited) "  Must be “placed in service” during 2006-2016 "  Residential not eligible for conversion to "  10% if installed 2017+ “Section 1603 Treasury Grant” treatment “There is no feast which does not come to an end.” - Chinese proverb ! !  Systems “placed in service” in 2009-2016 !  IRS Form 3468 (Sect 48 of Internal Revenue Code) !  IRS Form 5695 !  Unused credit can be carried forward 20 years !  Received on “next year’s” tax return (1 year delay) !  Commercial !  Unused credit can be carried forward thru at least 2016 "  Including home businesses > 20% sqf - with caution !  Not limited by AMT (Alternative Minimum Tax) !  Not limited by AMT (Alternative Minimum Tax) !  Important negative tax interaction with Rebates !  Vests at 20% per year (over 5 years)© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 40 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 41
  • 11. CSI Trigger Tracker EPBB Payments (per Watt) PBI Payments (per kWh) Step Statewide MW in Step Residential Commercial Government / EPBB Payments (per Watt) Residential Commercial Government / Non-Profit Non-Profit 1 50 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Govern 2 70 $2.50 Statewide $2.50 $3.25 $0.39 $0.39 $0.50 3 100 Step $2.20 $2.20 $2.95 Residential $0.34 $0.34 Commercial $0.46 / 4 130 $1.90 MW in Step $1.90 $2.65 $0.26 $0.26 $0.37 5 6 160 190 $1.55 $1.10 $1.55 $1.10 $2.30 $1.85 $0.22 $0.15 $0.22 $0.15 $0.32 $0.26 Non-P 7 8 215 250 1 $0.65 $0.35 50 $0.65 $0.35 $1.40 $1.10 n/a $0.09 $0.09 $0.05 $0.05 $0.19 n/a $0.15 n/ 9 10 285 350 2 $0.25 $0.20 70 $0.25 $0.20 $0.90 $0.70 $2.50 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $2.50 $0.12 $0.10 $3. 3 100 $2.20 Issued $2.20 $2. Unused MW Revised MW Administrator Class *4 Step in Step130 Previous Total MW in Reservation Remaining $1.90 Customer Current Initial MW from $1.90 Conditional MW Under $2. Steps Step Review 5 7 Residential 31.00 160 0.99 31.99 $1.55 Letters (MW) 27.38 4.61 $1.55 6.40 $2. PGE Non- 6 8 Residential 73.20 190 2.18 75.38 $1.10 14.61 60.76 $1.10 12.85 $1. Non- 7 215 0.37 $0.65 $0.65 $1. Residential 5 24.30 24.67 11.78 12.89 1.49 SCE 7 66.30 1.89 68.19 37.96 30.23 21.99 Residential 8 7 Residential 7.30 250 0.20 7.50 $0.35 5.53 1.96 $0.35 0.81 $1. CCSE 9 14.80 285 3.22 18.02 $0.25 $0.25 $0. Non- 7 15.90 2.12 1.59 Residential Trigger Tracker website: 350 10 http://www.csi-trigger.com As of 10/9/10 $0.20 $0.20 $0. Program Data & Statistics: http://csi.powerclerk.com© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 3 Residential Rates * Best Rate for Solar if PV is large enough compared to load and depending on consumption and production patterns© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 4
  • 12. 1603 Federal Treasury Grant 1603 Treasury Grant Limitations !  Commercial systems only !  2009-2010 ITC can be converted to Treasury Grant "  Limited to IRC Sec 48 and some Sec 45 !  Section 1603 Grant in ARRA (Recovery Act) !  Same general features and intended functionality as the !  Pass-thru entities (partnerships, LLCs, S-corps) can ITC, but better: use grant, as long as none of the recipients is non- "  Paid < 60 days of “placed in service” or application taxable (and therefore disqualified) "  Usable even if no tax appetite (effectively a refundable ITC "  I.e. One disqualifies all, regardless of small % or Federal Rebate) "  ‘Blocker’ C-Corporations can allow !  Commercial systems only !  Allows transfer of ownership !  “Placed in service” in 2009-2010 only, or !  Recapture of Grant or ITC on permanent cessation "  Construction Initiated 2009-10, completed by 2016 !  May be state taxable in certain cases, see: #  5% non-refundable cost spent by 2010 http://www.reznickgroup.com/sites/reznickgroup.com/files/ !  Treasury application: https://treas1603.nrel.gov/ papers/rg1078_section1603_state_matrix.pdf© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 42 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 43 “Placed In Service” Rebate Tax Interactions SEIA “Guide to Federal Tax Incentives for Solar Energy” Sec 136(b) - No “Double Benefit” Available free to SEIA members at: www.seia.org! !  If the rebate is non-taxable, the federal ITC is on !  Equipment delivered and construction / installation amount after rebate completed! "  Minor tasks like painting need not be finished ! !  If rebate is taxable, then federal ITC is on amount !  Taxpayer has taken legal title and control ! before rebate !  Pre-operational tests demonstrate the equipment functions as intended ! !  CA PV Rebates are not state taxable in CA, not !  Taxpayer has licenses, permits, and PTO (permission sure about other states; check w/ enacting law, local to operate)! SEIA chapter, state energy office© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 44 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 45 Rebate May Be Federally Taxable Rebate Tax Residential Exercise !  1099 tax forms have been issued to recipients !  Section 136(a) of IRS Code: !  Is it better to have a taxable or non-taxable "  ‘Utility (ratepayer funded) direct or indirect rebates residential rebate? for energy conservation for dwellings (i.e.. residential) are not taxable’ !  Why? #  PV is ‘energy conservation’ by precedent !  What does it depend on? !  IRS hasn’t publicly ruled on PV rebates for: "  CCSE & CEC "  Oregon private letter ruling isn’t precedent !  Many residential rebates may be tax exempt because of Section 136, but not necessarily all Info courtesy Mark Bolinger, LBL© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 46 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 47
  • 13. What If: Non-Taxable Rebate? What If: Taxable Rebate? (Residential) (Residential) $100K System Cost $100K System Cost -$20K Rebate -$20K Rebate $80K Net Cost After Rebate +6K Rebate Tax ($20K * 30% Fed Tax)* -$24K Tax Credit Value (30% of $80K)** -$30K Tax Credit Value (30% of $100K)** =$56K Net Cost =$56K Net Cost Rebate Tax Due even if rebate goes to the installer *30% federal marginal tax rate (30% tax bracket) *30% federal marginal tax rate (30% tax bracket) **30% federal ITC rate **30% federal ITC rate© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 48 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 49 Tax Credit Example 1 Tax Credit Example 2 30% Tax Bracket (Residential) 20% Tax Bracket (Residential) Non-Taxed Rebate Taxed Rebate Non-Taxed Rebate Taxed Rebate $100K System Cost $100K System Cost $100K System Cost $100K System Cost -$20K Rebate -$20K Rebate -$20K Rebate -$20K Rebate +$6K Rebate Tax* +$4K Rebate Tax* $80K Net Cost After Rebate $80K Net Cost After Rebate -$24K Tax Credit Value** -$30K Tax Credit Value** -$24K Tax Credit Value** -$30K Tax Credit Value** =$56K Net Cost =$56K Net Cost =$56K Net Cost =$54K Net Cost *30% federal marginal tax rate (30% tax bracket) *20% federal marginal tax rate (20% tax bracket) **30% federal ITC rate Questions? **30% federal ITC rate© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 50 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 51 Tax Credit Example 3 PBI & REC Taxation: Residential 40% Tax Bracket (Residential) Non-Taxed Rebate Taxed Rebate !  PBI probably taxable* "  Would prefer non-taxed PBI, but get full ITC $100K System Cost $100K System Cost "  Otherwise IRS would require NPV of future -$20K Rebate -$20K Rebate PBI payments to calculate reduction in ITC +$8K Rebate Tax* basis? $80K Net Cost After Rebate #  Unknown - How to calculate? -$24K Tax Credit Value** -$30K Tax Credit Value** =$56K Net Cost =$58K Net Cost !  RECs probably also taxable *40% federal marginal tax rate (40% tax bracket) *Suggested by Mark Bolinger, LBL **30% federal ITC rate Questions? Each 1% in tax bracket is worth 1% of the rebate© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 52 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 53
  • 14. PBI & REC Taxation: Commercial Depreciation - Federal !  Depreciation = Commercial tax deduction spread over time MACRS 5-Year Accelerated Depreciation (1/2 yr conv.) !  PBI & RECs probably taxable !  MACRS: Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System "  !  Section 136 is residential only IRS Form 4562 "  Equivalent of tax deducting system’s ‘basis’ over 5.5 years !  No known commercial exemptions !  Net Value = Basis * Tax Rate Net Value = (System ITC basis - 1/2 ITC) * Tax Rate Net Value = System ITC basis * 85% * Tax Rate !  Regular Schedule: 20%, 32%, 19.2%, 11.52%, 11.52%, 5.76% !  2008-10 Schedule: 60%, 16%, 9.6%, 5.76%, 5.76%, 2.88% "  2008-10 Gets 50% “Bonus Acceleration of Depreciation” !  Commercial only (including home businesses >50% by sqf) !  Up to 20 year carry-forward© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 54 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 55 Depreciation - CA State Financial Hazards & Gotchas !  Corporate: 12 Year Straight Line method !  Federal Tax on Rebate !  Non-Corporate: MACRS 5-Year !  1099 tax forms have been issued to "  (Sole-Proprietors, LLP, etc) recipients !  Section 136 applies only to residential !  State Depr Basis is Top Line Cost minus Rebate & State Tax Credit !  Commercial only (including home businesses) Questions?© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 56 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 57 Rebate Tax Commercial Exercise Tax Credit & Depr. Example Non-Taxed Rebate (Commercial) !  Is it better to have a taxable or non-taxable $150K System Cost commercial rebate? -$50K Rebate !  Why? $100K Net Cost After Rebate !  What does it depend on? -$30K Tax Credit Value (30% of $100K) -$35K Depr Value (85% of $100K * 41%) =$35K Net Cost 41% = combined net federal & state tax rate (35% Federal, 8.84% CA State)© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 58 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 59
  • 15. Commercial Tax Credit & Depr. Example Tax Credit & Depr. Example Taxed Rebate (Commercial) Non-Taxed Rebate Taxed Rebate $150K System Cost $150K System Cost $150K System Cost -$50K Rebate -$50K Rebate -$50K Rebate +17.5K Rebate Tax ($50K * 35% Fed Tax) +17.5K Rebate Tax $100K Net Cost After Rebate -$45K Tax Credit Value (30% of $150K) -$30K Tax Credit Value -$45K Tax Credit Value -$52K Depr Value (85% of $150K * 41%) -$35K Depr Value (85K * 41%) -$52K Depr Value (127.5K * 41%) =$20.5K Net Cost =$35K Net Cost =$20.5K Net Cost If commercial, want rebate taxable (no choice) Then tax credit and depreciation are on amount before rebate "  Worth more to pay tax on rebate, then get 30% credit and "  depreciation on rebate© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 60 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 61 Section 179 Expense Section 179 Not in OnGrid!  Section 179 converts some small business depreciable !  Conflicting language, not 100% clear if available property into 1st year expense (deduction) with ITC or Treasury Grant!  Deduction limit: $500K for 2010 & 2011 !  Few project & customers qualify "  Enhanced in 2010 Small Business Jobs & Credit Act of 2010 "  Must fit within limits & "  Drops to $25K in 2012 (unless extended) "  Aren’t already using it for other property!  Phase-out begins at 4x limit: ~$2,000,000 in 2010-11 !  Can hurt customer too – could cause loss of Sec. "  $1 for $1 reduction, so at 5x, Sect. 179 has no value 179 on other eligible property "  Phase-out basis is sum of all 179 eligible property put in !  Examples that don’t qualify: service in that year "  Already using for other purchases "  If sum > 5x (>$2.5million), then can’t use 179 at all "  Projects over $500K depending are limited!  Can including PV in Home Businesses if >50% "  Phased out if total of all is >$2,500,000 business Rights Reserved.© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All use of asset (ie > 50% of sqf is for Economics of Solar PV - 62 business) !  Kept out of OnGrid to stay conservative © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 63 Small Business Carry-Back of NOL Tax Benefits !  In 2009(+?), small businesses can carry !  ITC & MACRS reduce customer cost, but not back Net Operating Losses up to 5 years up-front "  $15 Million Gross Receipts limitation !  Not available to all customers – MACRS Depr. is affected by AMT "  Normally only 2 year carry-back "  Ask about customers “tax appetite” !  2009 Economic Stimulus "  More in Lease & PPA section !  Customers - beware of optimistic sales claims© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 64 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 65
  • 16. Agenda !  Overview of the Variables "  Costs & Incentives Questions? "  Electric Rate Structures Electric Rate Structures "  System Performance !  Financial Analysis Methods !  Solar Tools !  Interactive Examples© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 66 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 67 Electric Rate Structures Overview Net Metering !  Options for Solar - Net Metering Sell Power to the Utility by Day !  3 Customer Classes (Res, Com, Ag) !  2 Types of Rate (Flat, TOU) "  TOU: Time of Use Buy Power at Night and Winter . !  Demand Charges for Commercial • Exchange at Retail • 100% Efficient Battery • Annual Cycle • $0 minimum bill*© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 68 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. *Different with Calif. AB 920 Economics of Solar PV - 69 Average monthly usage Average monthly usage kWh/mo PV system production kWh/mo PV system production $/mo The surplus covers the shortfall, 750 Roll over 750 and your yearly bill is zero. 500 500 250 250 May October April May October April “SUMMER” “WINTER” “SUMMER” “WINTER” Gets more complicated with TOU and Net Metering and AB920 Slide courtesy Pete Shoemaker, PG&E Pacific Energy Center Slide courtesy Pete Shoemaker, PG&E Pacific Energy Center© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 70 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 71
  • 17. Electric Rate Structures Overview Residential Tiered Rates !  Three Customer Classes Residential only (in !  general) "  Residential, Commercial, Agricultural !  Types of Rate Penalizes larger !  residential users "  Flat: Simple rate, not time or usage dependent "  Tiered: Rates increase with usage Excellent motivator !  of efficiency, "  Time of Use (TOU): Rate varies during day - conservation & PV depends on when energy is used "  Tiered-TOU: Varies with usage & time of day ! Tiers cause Tears - of Joy! "  Demand © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 72 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 73 ! ! !"#$%&()!*+,-.#()-+!/0-1#)! ! 23-10! *+,4!56*!"&%!7#4 89:99;/!2#1<+0=!*+,-.#()-+!!!!!!!>6!??:;/@! ! *+)A,,-)B 23-10! *+,4!56*!"&%!7#4 :?C8;/!! ! ! !! DE5!"FGHI7J! "&%!C! ! ! ! KE"/LI7/!2/JIG7"! ! ! SCE Baseline ! MG2!N/O/2DI7I7J!KE"/LI7/!P6E7OIOI/"! ! ! ! Territories PG&E Residential Tiered Rates !  Variations: " Locations: 5-10, 13-16 29¢/kWh surcharge Coast to High Desert #  Season: Summer or "  Winter 11¢/kWh " Type: Electric Only or base charge Both Electric & Gas !  Baseline = Tier 1 = 70% of average user’s usage Tiered Rates: !  !  Tier 1 + Tier 2 = Avg "  Base is 11¢/kWh Examples http://www.sce.com/CustomerService/billing/tiered-rates/baseline-chart-map.htm "  Top is 40¢/kWh (Surcharge currently +29¢/kWh for Tier 4) http://www.sce.com/NR/rdonlyres/02FE720D-956D-44C7-B204-D48F830B79CC/0/Baseline.pdf © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 74 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 75 ! ! ! ! ! !!>O#!Q!-)1(%0!QR!$%-,-%R@! I11$0!QR! >O#!Q!-)1(%0!QR!*+,4!56*@!E03-A!! S?:T;/! EUQ+(!V+W+R(-! N+%!M-,0! "X!?Y=!SYYZ! !NA-1-#)!! YZ;Y:;YS:! [-A!5(1-0)%! /..A%-3! ! !!"!#$ ! ! 21#,$%-#)! ! !! NJ Residential Tiered Rates Reverse Tiers !  PA – Allegheny Power : !"#$%&!"#"(&!"#") Commercial rate "  ! PA – PECO: !"#%*&!"#$+&!"#",&!"#"- ! NY – ConEd: !"#%$&!"#$. ! JCP&L "  Base is 16.7¢/kWh "  Top is 22.5¢/kWh ! PSE&G and ACE are also tiered on Residential Examples © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 76 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 77
  • 18. CSI Trigger Tracker EPBB Payments (per Watt) PBI Payments (per kWh) Step Statewide MW in Step Residential Commercial Government / EPBB Payments (per Watt) Residential Commercial Government / Non-Profit Non-Profit 1 50 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Govern 2 70 $2.50 Statewide $2.50 $3.25 $0.39 $0.39 $0.50 3 100 Step $2.20 $2.20 $2.95 Residential $0.34 $0.34 Commercial $0.46 / 4 130 $1.90 MW in Step $1.90 $2.65 $0.26 $0.26 $0.37 5 6 160 190 $1.55 $1.10 $1.55 $1.10 $2.30 $1.85 $0.22 $0.15 $0.22 $0.15 $0.32 $0.26 Non-P 7 8 215 250 1 $0.65 $0.35 50 $0.65 $0.35 $1.40 $1.10 n/a $0.09 $0.09 $0.05 $0.05 $0.19 n/a $0.15 n/ 9 10 285 350 2 $0.25 $0.20 70 $0.25 $0.20 $0.90 $0.70 $2.50 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $2.50 $0.12 $0.10 $3. 3 100 $2.20 Issued $2.20 $2. Unused MW Revised MW Administrator Class *4 Step in Step130 Previous Total MW in Reservation Remaining $1.90 Customer Current Initial MW from $1.90 Conditional MW Under $2. Steps Step Review 5 7 Residential 31.00 160 0.99 31.99 $1.55 Letters (MW) 27.38 4.61 $1.55 6.40 $2. PGE Non- 6 8 Residential 73.20 190 2.18 75.38 $1.10 14.61 60.76 $1.10 12.85 $1. Non- 7 215 0.37 $0.65 $0.65 $1. Residential 5 24.30 24.67 11.78 12.89 1.49 SCE 7 66.30 1.89 68.19 37.96 30.23 21.99 Residential 8 7 Residential 7.30 250 0.20 7.50 $0.35 5.53 1.96 $0.35 0.81 $1. CCSE 9 14.80 285 3.22 18.02 $0.25 $0.25 $0. Non- 7 15.90 2.12 1.59 Residential Trigger Tracker website: 350 10 http://www.csi-trigger.com As of 10/9/10 $0.20 $0.20 $0. Program Data & Statistics: http://csi.powerclerk.com© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 3 Residential Rates * Best Rate for Solar if PV is large enough compared to load and depending on consumption and production patterns© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 4
  • 19. Residential Rates PG&E Tiered Rate System Residential Tiered Usage Before Solar Residential Tiered Usage With Solar 35.0¢ 35.0¢ 30.0¢ 30.0¢ 25.0¢ 25.0¢ Cents per kWh Cents per kWh 20.0¢ 20.0¢ 15.0¢ 15.0¢ 10.0¢ 10.0¢ 5.0¢ 5.0¢ 0.0¢ 0.0¢ Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5 Net Usage Net Usage Production Use/Bill Before Solar Small “Net” Use After Solar Marginal Use at 49¢ Marginal Use at 11.4¢ - 13.3¢ . Solar systems offset the most expensive usage first * Best Rate for Solar if PV is large enough compared to load and depending on Examples consumption and production patterns© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 78 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 79 Typical Customers & Loads Break? !  What kind of customers are: !  Break – Networking & Questions "  High in the tiers? !  Reminder: "  Low in the tiers? "  Side conversations !  What types of loads, appliances, & devices "  Cell phones to fun mode cause high tiers? !  How do we profile our customers for Target Marketing?© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 80 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 81 Simplified Time of Use (TOU, East) Simplified Time of Use (TOU,West) !  Total kWh Usage in each Time Period !  Total kWh Usage in each Time Period!  Peak rates are Summer All Day - high cost !  Peak rates are Summer Afternoons - high cost!  Off-Peak rates are Nights & Weekends - low cost !  Off-Peak rates are Nights, Mornings & Weekends!  Hours are usually Daylight Savings (vs. Solar Time) !  Hours are Daylight Savings (vs. Solar Time)!  Types vary, and not available for all utilities or customers !  Types vary, and not available for all utilities or customers© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 82 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 83
  • 20. Time of Use with SCE Time Of Use Residential TOU-D-T Annual Net Metering Residential Time-of-Use Pricing Periods !  Net Metering on an annual basis Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Combined with Midnight - 10am Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak !  Time Of Use metering 10am - 6pm Off-Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Off-Peak 6pm - Midnight Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak !  Sell at high rate; Buy at low rate !  Advantage in customer’s favor !  33% of the day is Peak !  Can reduce system size … when most people are away from home "  Reduction depends on % on-peak usage & rate schedule Off-Peak rates are Nights, Mornings & Weekends !  shading and orientation … when most people are home & using "  Vote Solar – votesolar.org can help Questions?© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 84 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 85 NY, NJ, PA, CT Time Of Use TOU Exercise 1 Residential Time-of-Use Pricing Periods Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Midnight - 8am Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak !  Switching a customer to a TOU rate schedule with 8am - Noon Off-Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Off-Peak net metering and solar (helps / hurts) their results if Noon - 8pm Off-Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Off-Peak 8pm - Midnight Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak they use a lot of electricity during peak hours and their solar system is (small / large) compared to !  Peak rates are Summer Afternoons ~22-33¢/kWh until 8-10pm … when people are mostly away from home their usage. !  Off-Peak rates are Nights, Mornings & Weekends ~3-11¢/kWh !  Ideally, the solar system will cause their electric … when most people are home & using meter to spin (forward / backward) at night and !  NY: ConEd: ~10am-10pm !  NJ: JCP&L - 8am-8pm; PSE&G: 7am-9pm (forward / backward) during most of any peak time !  PA: MetEd, Penelec 9am-9pm; PPL, PECO 8am=6pm or 7:30pm period. !  CT: UI, CL&P – 12pm-8pm© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 86 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 87 TOU Exercise 2 Go TOU? High !  If electricity costs 50¢/kWh in Chicago (45 N No On-peak Lat) from 7am-11am and 1¢/kWh the rest of the usage day from November thru February, and 1¢/kWh Med at all times the rest of the year, the best orientation (direction, such as N, NW, etc) for a Low Maybe solar system to maximize value of electricity Yes produced would be ______ and the best slope would be ______ (within 20°) up from 0 25% 50% 75% 100% horizontal. Percentage of yearly usage covered by solar© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 88 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Courtesy, Pete Shoemaker, PG&E PEC Economics of Solar PV - 89
  • 21. TOU & Solar Estimating Peak Usage How Is Energy Used? !  Solar can only produce during day What should we ask about? !  TOU hours subject to Daylight Savings Time !  Who’s home during Peak? "  Noon-6pm clock time on meter = 11am-5pm solar time "  10am-6pm on meter = 9am-5pm solar !  What are they doing? !  Solar production peaks during Peak !  Air Conditioning Climate? Into the evening? !  Sufficient PV sizing (but less than total usage offset) must turn meter backwards on peak. !  Ability/willingness to shift usage? "  At some point in PV size, customer only pays “off-peak” !  Solar Pool Heating? rates "  TOU is better if “off-peak” is lower than customer’s !  Large Base-load usage is good: average non-TOU rate "  Refrigeration, electronics, servers, hot tub© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 90 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 91 Getting Perspective (West) Getting Perspective (East) !  Only 6 to 8 hours are peak: 25% - 33% !  8-12-14 hours are peak: 50-60%, including evening !  Even w/ AC, what’s a reasonable peak % !  With AC & evening activity, what’s a reasonable "  40-50%-60% max in homes peak %? #  Much higher in businesses "  50%-60%-80% in homes "  Note: The other 67-75% of the day also needs energy #  Higher in many businesses !  Impact of being off 5-10% in peak estimation "  Note: The other 20-50% of the day also needs energy !  Impact of being off 5-10% in peak estimation Examples Examples© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 92 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 93 Residential Rates Common Commercial Electric Rate Schedules * Best Rate for Solar if PV is large enough compared to load and depending on consumption and production patterns© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 94 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 95
  • 22. Commercial Rates (PG&E) Commercial Rates (SCE)© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 96 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 97 SCE Commercial Time Of Use Electric Rate Structures Overview SCE Commercial Time-of-Use Pricing Periods !  Options for Solar - Net Metering Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 11pm - 5am Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak !  3 Customer Classes (Res, Com, Ag) 5am - 8am Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak 8am - Noon Off-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Off-Peak !  2 Types of Rate (Flat, TOU) Noon - 6pm Off-Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Off-Peak 6pm - 11pm Off-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Off-Peak "  TOU: Time of Use !  Use and/or Sell On-Peak @ 24-32¢/kWh on Option R !  Demand Charges for Commercial "  Part-Peak @ 14-19¢/kWh !  More usage on peak, less benefit from TOU Questions?© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 98 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 99 Demand Profile vs. Demand Charges !  Usually applies only to Large users Solar Production "  Commercial and Agricultural !  On a per kW basis (load, not usage) TYPICAL "  Size of the wire, power plant for peak usage BUILDING DEMAND DEMAND & PRODUCTION IDEAL SOLAR PRODUCTION 7am 12noon 5pm !  Based on highest 15-30 minute peak load average any HOUR time during the last 1-12 billing months Questions?© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 100 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 101
  • 23. Reducing Demand Charges Reducing Demand Charges !  Difficult for solar to offset demand "  Clouds, spikes in usage not during solar hours, inverters tripping offline !  Add control systems ~$30K+ !  Some rates have no/low demand charges "  And sometimes high peak (sell) rates "  Benefits depend on Size: Usage ratio and demand & usage patterns with respect to rate schedule hours Questions?© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 102 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 103 California PUC Time of Use with Loading Order Least GHG, Least Total Cost Annual Net Metering (including new power plants) 1a. Customer Awareness via Energy Audits and !  Net Metering on an annual basis 1 - Energy Efficiency & Conservation Analysis 1b. Efficiency Rebates Combined with Eg: programmable thermostats and lighting controls, CFLs, etc. !  Time Of Use metering 2a. TOU & Super-Peak Rates 2b. Demand Charges 2 - Demand Response 2c. Utility Control Systems & Load Control with large critical !  Sell at high rate, Buy at low rate Greater customers 2d. Advanced Metering !  2:1 or 3:1 in customer favor System 3 - Renewables 2e. “Flex Your Power” Ads 2f. PV !  Can reduce system size 0-30% Reliability 3. California Solar Initiative (PV), "  Reduction depends on % on-peak usage & rate schedule & other RE programs #  Commercial is usually small reduction Overall 4 - Clean Cost Fossil #  Shading and orientation There are and will be lots of Effectiveness Questions? incentives for Energy Efficiency© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 104 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 105 Electric Rate Escalation & Inflation !  CA Electric Rate Compound Annual Average Increases: Inflation & Other "  6.7% /yr from 1970-2001 Factors "  2.9% /yr from 2001-2010 !  U.S. Average: Rates Grew 3.8%/yr from 2001-2010 !  Large Shale Bed Methane discoveries may limit escalation !  CPI/Inflation has been 3.1% /yr since 1982 "  CPI-U: Urban Consumer Price Index© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 106 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 107
  • 24. 2010 Average Residential Electric Rates & Escalation (East, partial) 2008 U.S. Average Retail Price per kWh is 9.74 Cents Average Retail Price (Cents per Kilowatt-hour) Source: DOE Energy Information Administration.© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 5 2010 Average Residential Electric Rates & Escalation (West, partial) 2008 U.S. Average Retail Price per kWh is 9.74 Cents Average Retail Price (Cents per Kilowatt-hour) Source: DOE Energy Information Administration.© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 6
  • 25. California Electric Rates 2010 Average Residential, Small Business, and Large Business Sectors 1970 to 2001 for SCE and PG&E 16.0 Residential Electric Rates & 14.0 Residential Escalation (East, partial) 2008 U.S. Average Retail Price per kWh is 9.74 Cents 12.0 Cents per kilowatt-hour 10.0 1982 Small Business 8.0 6.0 Large Business 4.0 2.0 / Average Retail Price (Cents per Kilowatt-hour) !"#$% !"&% !""(% !""&% $$!% %#%+ 0123415678 )#.) $$#.$ $$#+% $*#*" $#)$ 9:788;<235122 )#*+ $"#%. ,#)( $*#+) "#,, =7>?1;<235122 )#%- )#+) .#,+ $$#*% Source: DOE Energy Information Administration.Source: California Public Utilities Commission: Prepared by the CPUC Energy Division. Dataset from Energy Information Administration (EIA), DOE/EIA-0376(95),State2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights 1995, Tables 36-38. 1996 through 2000 reflects AB 1890 frozen rates. 2001 rates include 4 cent increase inof Solar PV Rates. © Energy Price and Expenditure Report, Reserved. Economics SCE and PG&E - 108 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 109 2010 Average California Electric Rates What Happened Residential 1970 to 2001 Residential Electric Rates & 16.0 2001 to 2010? Escalation (West, partial) 14.0 Residential 2008 U.S. Average Retail Price per kWh is 9.74 Cents 12.0 Cents per kilowatt-hour 10.0 1982 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Average Retail Price (Cents per Kilowatt-hour) - !"#$% !"&% !""(% !""&% $$!% %#% 0123415678 )#) $$#. $$#+ $*#* Source: DOE Energy Information Administration. Source: California Public Utilities Commission: Prepared by the CPUC Energy Division. Dataset from Energy Information Administration (EIA), DOE/EIA-0376(95), © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 110 Economics SCE and PG&E - 111 State2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights 1995, Tables 36-38. 1996 through 2000 reflects AB 1890 frozen rates. 2001 rates include 4 cent increase in of Solar PV Rates. © Energy Price and Expenditure Report, Reserved. @17A14B*,C California Electric Rates asa s Residential 1970 to 2001 plus 2001 to 2010 tiers asf Cost / Value Overview sf asdf •  Deregulation in 1995 froze Tier 1 & 2 D31>*E-&*"C •  AB1X during 2001 Power Crisis created Tier - System Cost 3-5, which have risen 5x faster than ‘average’ D31>+&%,C rates needed to rise to compensate for Tier 1&2 f f + Rebate / PBI / State Tax Credits •  SB 695 (Kehoe) unlocks and raises Tier 1 & 2 - Federal Tax on Rebate / PBI / State Tax Credits rates 1% faster than ‘average’, up to 5% per year •  Tier 3,4,5 might now drop + 30% Fed Tax Credit / Treasury Grant Questions? $.#" df + ~41% Depreciation * 85% (Commercial only) $*#" D31>%&$+#-C + Savings & Inflation on savings (pre-tax value if Residential) )*+,-%.*/%01234567839/% Residential asf $%#" a D31>$&$$#,C @FEG%"$" $"#" 1982 sdf - Lost Electric Bill Tax Deduction (Commercial) (#" .#" Be cautions about - Maintenance & Inflation on maintenance *#" future rate hikes – %#" 2-3% max - Inverter Replacement Cost / !"#$% !"&% !""(% !""&% :;<=%$$!% :;<=%$!$% + REC Value (less taxes), Green Marketing, Morale D31>-&%.C D31>*&%*C D31>-&*,C D31>*&*$C ------------------------------------------ Source: California Public Utilities Commission, EIA, PG&E D31>+&$)C D31>+&%)C = Net Cost (needs to be net benefit %#%C 0123415678 )#)C $$#.C $$#+C D31>%&$+C D31>$&$$C D31>%&$+C Questions? D31>$&$$#-C including the SRECs to be attractive) © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 112 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 113
  • 26. *+,-+."/"&01" California Electric Rates asa s Residential 1970 to 2001 plus 2001 to 2010 tiers asf sf asdf •  Deregulation in 1995 froze Tier 1 & 2 23+4"&"5"67"&%1" •  AB1X during 2001 Power Crisis created Tier 3-5, which have risen 5x faster than ‘average’ f 23+4"87"#01" rates needed to rise to compensate for Tier 1&2 f •  SB 695 (Kehoe) unlocks and raises Tier 1 & 2 rates 1% faster than ‘average’, up to 5% per year •  Tier 3,4,5 might now drop Questions? )$%" df )&$%" 23+4"#7")8$61" !"#$%&"(&)*+,-./01,2(& Residential asf )#$%" a 23+4")7"))$01" *95:"#%)%" )%$%" 1982 sdf ($%" $%" Be cautions about &$%" future rate hikes – #$%" 2-3% max !" 9:;8& 9:<7& 9::=& 9::<& 3456&7889& 3456&7898& 23+4"67"#1" 23+4"67"&01" 23+4"&7"#&1" 23+4"&7"&)1"Source: California Public Utilities Commission, EIA, PG&E 23+4"87");1" 23+4"87"#;1" 23+4"#7")81" 23+4"#7")81" "#$#1" <+=3.+>?,@" ";$;1" "))$1" "))$81"" 23+4")7"))1" 23+4")7"))$61"© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 7 Residential Total Lifecycle Payback© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 8
  • 27. Agenda !  Overview of the Variables "  Costs & Incentives "  Rate Structures Questions? System Performance "  System Performance !  Financial Analysis Methods !  Solar Tools !  Interactive Examples © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 114 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 115 System Performance Pre-Exercise Component Performance !  What are the 5 major and 4 minor solar system !  STC (DC) Size adjusted to CEC rating: loss factors, and what are their typical ranges? "  A: Module Temperature (PTC rating) ~ 89% "  B: Inverter (new CEC rating as of 4/1/05) Major: (range) Minor: (range) #  Typically 93-96%, See CEC web page _______________________ _______________________ _______________________ _______________________ "  A*B * # modules = CEC AC system rating _______________________ _______________________ !  CEC AC rating is ~ 83% of the STC rating _______________________ _______________________ "  5kW CEC AC = 6kW STC DC (approximately) _______________________ !  Equipment listed at: Major means possibly greater than 10% loss "  http://www.gosolarcalifornia.org/equipment/pvmodule.html "  http://www.gosolarcalifornia.org/equipment/inverter.php © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 116 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 117 Sun Hours Unavoidable Location- !  Sun Hours = equivalent noon sunlight hours by month or year round averages Specific Performance Factors of 30 years of data !  Dust & Dirt for location: 7% (5-20%) "  Varies by tilt & tracking (fixed, 1 axis, !  Manufacturer Fudge: 5% (0-5%) 2 axis) !  Sun Hours for location (Redbook) ;<R78J&STK*#$ !  Module Mismatch: 2% "  http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/pubs/redbook/ @3U2V<>?&@NK*#% !  AC & DC Wiring: 3% (1-5%) "  Weather varies +/- 11% LO3I7?J&W=K*#* S1X7>A&SYK*#- !  Temperature in location (as varies from Davis, CA) !  Examples: (hours equivalent) ;J2ZJ5&[NK*#. "  Temperature Performance loss: 0.5% per °C temp rise 975H>75I32IJK-#* ^_%"` ;786:J>1&[K*#. ;J<841>&LMK-#- 07813?O&SLK-#" !  See CEC publication for more: =J2N5?1812K-#. A Guide to Photovoltaic (PV) System Design and Installation [37:3&H=K-#% @OJ153P&NQK.#- N<265&D]K-#+ http://www.energy.ca.gov/reports/2001-09-04_500-01-020.PDF © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 118 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 119Add HI, OR, MT, IL
  • 28. Reliability & Monitoring Customer or Designer Related Performance Factors Influenced Performance Factors !  Module Degradation (~0.5% to 0.75%/year) !  Uptime: 98% (2% loss) !  Customer aesthetics preferences: !  Reliability: "  Orientation (Tilt Angle & Azimuth) "  If monitored: ~100% "  Temperature by mounting type "  If not monitored (after 3+ years): ~0% #  Up to 10% loss if <6” clear venting behind array !  Shading Solmetric SunEye 210 Solar Pathfinder© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 120 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Courtesy Solmetric, Inc. Economics of Solar PV - 121 Summary of Performance Loss Performance Variable Factor Factor Time of 7-14% 4-11% 86-93% 89-96% Module Temperature (PTC) Inverter Efficiency day 5-15% 85-95% Dust & Dirt 7-15% 85-93% Module Degradation over 20 years shading 1.5-5% 95-98.5% Wiring (AC & DC) analysis 1.5-2.5% 2-10% 97.5-98.5% 90-98% Module Mismatch System Availability (uptime) 0-5% 95-100% Manufacturer Production Tolerance 25-35% 65-75% Typical Totals for the Best Systems 0-40% 60-100% Orientation & Tilt (N @ 20° = 70%) 0-100% 0-100% Shading Questions?© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 122 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 123 Agenda Financial Analysis Pre-Exercise !  Overview of the Variables !  Alternative analyses/answers to the “Payback” "  Costs & Incentives question (4): "  Rate Structures _________________________________________ "  System Performance _________________________________________ Questions? _________________________________________ !  Financial Analysis Methods _________________________________________ !  Solar Tools !  Interactive Examples© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 124 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 125
  • 29. The Ideal Situation Agenda !  Overview of the Variables !  Electric bill large enough to require a 2.5kW+ system to be practical !  Financial Analysis Methods "  Typically > $50-90/month (up in the tiers) "  Simple Payback !  No Shade "  Total Lifecycle Payback "  Return On Investment (ROI) !  Facing South (SE & SW are good too) "  Rate of Return analysis (IRR) !  3:12 to 5:12 roof pitch (easy install, good "  Increase in Appraisal Valuation production) !  Grid tied (no battery) in IOU/Public Utility areas !  Solar Tools (higher rates than municipal utilities) !  Interactive Examples© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 126 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 127 Financial Analysis Methods & Tests Overview !  Simple Payback: In reasonable time !  Total Lifecycle Payback "  Gives back lots more than cost over time Watt’$ the Payback? !  Rate of Return analysis: 4-10%+ returns !  Increase in Appraisal Valuation "  Appraises for more than it cost© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 128 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 129 Simple Payback Simple Payback - A Poor Test !  Time to “Payback” - how quickly do you get your money back !  Assuming electric inflation in savings Payback Year !  Typical results: 8-13 years Initial Cost "  What’s a “reasonable period”? !  Not a good measure !  Doesn’t value savings after “payback” !  Isn’t comparable to other investments (stocks, etc) Not interest rate based Questions? "  "  Taxable vs. non-taxable earnings© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 130 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 131
  • 30. *+,-+."/"&01" California Electric Rates asa s Residential 1970 to 2001 plus 2001 to 2010 tiers asf sf asdf •  Deregulation in 1995 froze Tier 1 & 2 23+4"&"5"67"&%1" •  AB1X during 2001 Power Crisis created Tier 3-5, which have risen 5x faster than ‘average’ f 23+4"87"#01" rates needed to rise to compensate for Tier 1&2 f •  SB 695 (Kehoe) unlocks and raises Tier 1 & 2 rates 1% faster than ‘average’, up to 5% per year •  Tier 3,4,5 might now drop Questions? )$%" df )&$%" 23+4"#7")8$61" !"#$%&"(&)*+,-./01,2(& Residential asf )#$%" a 23+4")7"))$01" *95:"#%)%" )%$%" 1982 sdf ($%" $%" Be cautions about &$%" future rate hikes – #$%" 2-3% max !" 9:;8& 9:<7& 9::=& 9::<& 3456&7889& 3456&7898& 23+4"67"#1" 23+4"67"&01" 23+4"&7"#&1" 23+4"&7"&)1"Source: California Public Utilities Commission, EIA, PG&E 23+4"87");1" 23+4"87"#;1" 23+4"#7")81" 23+4"#7")81" "#$#1" <+=3.+>?,@" ";$;1" "))$1" "))$81"" 23+4")7"))1" 23+4")7"))$61"© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 7 Residential Total Lifecycle Payback© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 8
  • 31. Total Lifecycle Payback !  Total amount saved over 25 year life of system compared to system net cost Assuming electric inflation in savings Total Lifecycle Payback "  "  A better measure !  Usually shows savings of 2x to 4x times initial cost !  Shows the future savings better than Simple Payback - a more fair test !  Drawback: Doesn’t reflect the time value of money: "  Today’s $ are worth more than future $© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 132 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 133 Residential Total Lifecycle Payback Total Lifecycle Payback Total Savings Initial Cost !  Total Savings (whole area) is much larger than Initial Cost© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 134 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 135 General Residential Utility Specific Variables & Assumptions Residential Assumptions !  28% federal tax bracket, corresponding state tax bracket !  Facing south, 22° pitch, simple composition shingle roof by full service provider, no complications !  Slightly conservative real system performance, no shade !  Final Net Cost = total installed system costs - Rebate (if any) - 2010 Fed 30% ITC + $500 Permit + $0 Utility Fee !  System maintenance cost is 0.25% of gross system cost per year, adjusted for inflation !  3.0% electric inflation !  Module: Sanyo Electric HIP-215NKHA5, degradation: 0.5%/yr !  Inverter: SMA America SB3000US (240V), Replacement costing $700/kW occurs in year 15© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 136 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 137
  • 32. General Residential Variables & Assumptions !  28% federal tax bracket, corresponding state tax bracket !  Facing south, 22° pitch, simple composition shingle roof by full service provider, no complications !  Slightly conservative real system performance, no shade !  Final Net Cost = total installed system costs - Rebate (if any) - 2010 Fed 30% ITC + $500 Permit + $0 Utility Fee !  System maintenance cost is 0.25% of gross system cost per year, adjusted for inflation !  3.0% electric inflation !  Module: Sanyo Electric HIP-215NKHA5, degradation: 0.5%/yr !  Inverter: SMA America SB3000US (240V), Replacement costing $700/kW occurs in year 15© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 9 Utility Specific Residential Assumptions© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 10
  • 33. General Commercial Variables & Assumptions !  35% federal tax bracket, corresponding state tax bracket !  Facing south, 14° pitch, simple composition shingle roof by full service provider, no complications !  Slightly conservative real system performance, no shade !  Final Net Cost = total installed system costs - Rebate (if any) - 2010 Fed 30% ITC + $800 Permit + $0 Utility Fee !  System maintenance cost is 0.25% of gross system cost per year, adjusted for inflation !  3.0% electric inflation !  Module: Sanyo Electric HIP-215NKHA5, degradation: 0.5%/yr !  Inverter: SMA America SB3000US (240V), Replacement costing $700/kW occurs in year 15 !  Solar only - no Energy Efficiency included Economics of Solar PV - 11© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Utility Specific Commercial Assumptions© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 12
  • 34. General Commercial Utility Specific Variables & Assumptions Commercial Assumptions !  35% federal tax bracket, corresponding state tax bracket !  Facing south, 14° pitch, simple composition shingle roof by full service provider, no complications !  Slightly conservative real system performance, no shade !  Final Net Cost = total installed system costs - Rebate (if any) - 2010 Fed 30% ITC + $800 Permit + $0 Utility Fee !  System maintenance cost is 0.25% of gross system cost per year, adjusted for inflation !  3.0% electric inflation !  Module: Sanyo Electric HIP-215NKHA5, degradation: 0.5%/yr !  Inverter: SMA America SB3000US (240V), Replacement costing $700/kW occurs in year 15 !  Solar only - no Energy Efficiency included Economics of Solar PV - 138 Economics of Solar PV - 139© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Commercial Total Lifecycle Payback Lifecycle Payback Exercise !  Lifecycle Payback analysis is superior to Simple Payback because it shows ( current / future) savings (after Payback) in the analysis, which is important because savings (grow / shrink ) over time due to (rate escalation / module degradation ).© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 140 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 141 Return On Investment Analysis !  Misused, misleading analysis method !  Wrong method: Annual Electric Bill Savings from Investment Watt’$ the Return On Incorrect ROI = Cost of Investment Attempts to calculate “1st year ROI” (then repeats Investment or ROI? "  with 2nd year ROI, etc) ! "  On a simple 10 year payback, would show 10% !  Correct method: (Gain from Investment - Cost of Investment) ROI = Cost of Investment "  The true 1 year ROI of this is -90% "  Solar is not a 1 year investment Questions?© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 142 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 143 !
  • 35. Commercial Total Lifecycle Payback© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 13 IRR Timeline & Analysis Year X Year: Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 … … (12-15-20) System -System Cost Cost +Incentives Rebate PBI 1 PBI 2 PBI 3 … PBI X … +Bill Savings Savings 1 Savings 2 Savings 3 … Savings X … Maint. X -Maintenance Maint. 1 Maint. 2 Maint. 3 … … Inverter +Fed Tax Credit Fed ITC +State Tax Credit State ITC -Fed Cost of Fed Cost State Tax Credit State ITC +Fed Depr. Fed Depr Fed Depr Fed Depr … +State Depr. State Depr State Depr State Depr … - Fed Cost of Fed Cost of Fed Cost of … State Depr State Depr State Depr =Net Net 0 Net 1 Net 2 Net 3 … Net X … !  IRR is function of Net0 : Net25 line [ example formula: =IRR(F10:F36) ] !  Inverter replacement: $700/kW in yr ~ 12-20 !  PBI, Savings, Maintenance adjust for inflation and/or module degradation© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 14
  • 36. Best Tests of Solar’s Viability !  Tests for financial viability: " Simple Payback Watt’$ the Rate %f Return " Total Lifecycle Payback or IRR? " Return on Investment Questions? " Rate of Return analysis " Increase in Appraisal Valuation© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 144 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 145 Rate of Return Analysis Set Up & Inclusions !  Means: Finding the effective interest rate !  20-25-year timeline - yearly cash flows yield on the solar investment !  Include cost and benefit components "  Uses Internal Rate of Return (IRR) analysis "  System cost & rebates !  Compound Annual Rate of Return (CARR) "  Tax benefits and consequences !  Useful for comparison with other "  Electric bill savings, Inflation investments w/ known Rates of Return "  Cleaning, maintenance, inverter replacement, "  I.e. Stocks panel degradation !  Assume $0 terminal scrap value or disposal Questions? cost© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 146 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. - 147 Economics of Solar PV IRR vs. MIRR IRR vs. NPV !  MIRR is Modified Internal Rate or Return !  NPV is Net Present Value !  IRR provides free cash during term !  Discount Rate – what to use? "  Doesn’t stay fully invested, OR… "  WACC – weighted average cost of capital "  Assumes reinvestment at IRR rate to stay "  Best alternative investment fully invested (main criticism of IRR) "  Must ask customer what they think it is – slows !  MIRR allows for reinvestment at ‘safe’ rate analysis "  Considered more conservative !  NPV = $0 when the Discount Rate is set equal to the IRR !  IRR more commonly used "  If IRR > Discount Rate, NPV will be positive© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 148 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 149
  • 37. IRR Timeline & Analysis Year: Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 … Year X (12-15-20) … Residential Analysis System -System Cost Cost +Incentives Rebate +Bill Savings PBI 1 Savings 1 PBI 2 Savings 2 PBI 3 Savings 3 … PBI X … … Savings X … !  Ideal residential customers can see pre-tax -Maintenance Maint. 1 Maint. 2 Maint. 3 … Maint. X Inverter … IRRs in the 7% to 16%+ range +Fed Tax Credit +State Tax Credit Fed ITC State ITC "  Comparable to long-term stock market -Fed Cost of State Tax Credit Fed Cost State ITC # ~8.5% compounded annually over the last +Fed Depr. Fed Depr Fed Depr Fed Depr … 80 years to Dow Jones 13,500 in 2007 +State Depr. State Depr State Depr State Depr … - Fed Cost of Fed Cost of Fed Cost of # ~7.5% to Dow 8,000 in 2009 … State Depr State Depr State Depr =Net Net 0 Net 1 Net 2 Net 3 … Net X … # Total returns, dividend reinvested, pre-tax !  IRR is function of Net0 : Net25 line [ example formula: =IRR(F10:F36) ] !  Inverter replacement: $700/kW in yr ~ 12-20 !  Adjust for “pre-tax” conditions !  PBI, Savings, Maintenance adjust for inflation and/or module degradation© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 150 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 151 Residential Pre-Tax Residential Pre-Tax Conversion Convert all costs & benefits to pretax value as appropriate !  Most investments are taxable !  Initial capital cost is not increased "  "  Stocks, Bonds, Savings interest, etc. This is the “principal” "  AfterTax "  (the 8.5% yield is pre-tax) !  All other values get adjusted: PreTax = 1" TaxRate !  Convert solar analysis to pre-tax value so !  Example: Tax Rate = 50% (unrealistic, but easy) all investments are on even playing field After-tax savings = $100 and are comparable AfterTax ! $100 $100 $100 PreTax = = = = = $100 * 2 = $200 !  Must convert to the appropriate pre-tax 1" TaxRate 1" 50% 1" .50 .50 values for savings, tax benefits, etc. !  More realistically $100 after-tax => $140-$160 pre-tax© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 152 ! © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Questions? Economics of Solar PV - 153 Residential Rates of Return Commercial Analysis !  Ideal commercial customers can see after- tax IRRs in the 3% to 8% range "  Comparable to other business investments "  Plus has green marketing and morale benefits "  Depends heavily on system cost !  Must properly factor all benefits and costs© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 154 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 155
  • 38. Residential Rates of Return© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 15 Commercial Rates of Return© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 16
  • 39. Commercially Attractive? Complete Commercial Analysis !  IRR must exceed a hurdle rate !  Proper commercial analysis is after-tax "  > “Risk Free Rate” + ~1-2% !  A. Extra incentives: = Risk Free Rate + Sum of Risks (more later) "  Federal Tax Credit & Depreciation #  Source: Photon International, Aug 2007, p114 !  B. Loss of electric expense tax deduction !  “Risk Free” interest rates: !  A & B approximately offset each other "  1 Year LIBOR ~ 0.8% As of September 2010 "  Net results are comparable to residential, but "  Treasury: 10yr = 2.5%, 30yr = 3.4% As of 10/4/2010 are “after tax” values, so sometimes appear !  " Commercially Attractive >= 4-6%? smaller. !  PPA & Lease investors were getting 6-8% Questions?© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 156 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 157 Commercial Rates of Return IRR Exercise The IRR of a project gets better when: !  Top-line cost of the project is (higher / lower). !  Incentives & tax benefits are received (sooner / later) (timeframe) because of the ?____Value of Money. !  The system produces (more / less) kWh and generates (greater / lesser) savings on the electric bill. !  Electric rates (rise / fall ) consistently and rapidly but maintenance costs don’t.© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 158 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 159 Best Tests of Solar’s Viability !  Tests for financial viability: " Simple Payback Watt’$ the Resale Value? " Total Lifecycle Payback " Return on Investment " Rate of Return analysis Questions? " Increase in Appraisal Valuation© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 160 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 161
  • 40. Commercial Equity Increase Commercial Resale !  Based on actual savings and cost of borrowing - Cash Flow in disguise !  Also known as “Cap Rate” or “Capitalization Rate” "  Cap Rate varies from 4% to 10% by client & market climate Annual Savings Resale Increase = Cap Rate Annual Savings = .06 !  No commercial data or studies are known for solar, but is a ! standard commercial real estate valuation mechanism !© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 162 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 163 Residential The Rationale Increase in Appraisal Valuation !  Solar electric systems add value to homes by: !  The $1,000 not spent on electricity, is "  Reducing/eliminating electric energy operating costs available to be spent on an equity loan payment… !  Nevin in the Appraisal Journal states: ‘The … at no net change in the cost of living increase in appraisal value for a home is about (to the future owner) twenty (20) times the annual reduction in operating !  Analysis from ‘98 and ‘99 costs due to energy efficiency measures.’ !  Electric bill savings: $1,000 per year "  Seems Dated "  Rationale is timeless… = Increased appraisal value: $20,000© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 164 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 165 Residential Equity Increase 20:1 Ratio !  Based on 5% after tax cost of money "  Interest on $20K = $1K/yr at 5%/yr !  Typical long term mortgage average rates (~8.3% before tax) !  Depends on mortgage loan rates !  Has varied from 10:1 to over 25:1 !  Rates are <8% now, so ratio is >20:1, but !  Unfair to assume high ratio in future when home will be sold !  Use 20:1 to be conservative Questions?© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 166 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 167
  • 41. Commercial Equity Increase© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 17 Residential Equity Increase© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 18
  • 42. Other Home Improvements Comparison to Solar (PG&E) Remodeling Online capital recovery rates Source: www.remodeling.hw.net, 2009-2010 Cost vs. Value Report !  Would a homebuyer pay 106%-153% more for a used solar system on an existing home? !  Geographic dependence? Questions?© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 168 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 169 Factors in Resale Value Over Time Resale Value Exercise !  The immediate increase in the property’s resale value (does / does not ) depend on system cost and . . up-front incentives received, reducing net cost, and . (does / does not ) depend on how fast electric rates go up in the future. .© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 170 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 171 Price Support Proof May Take A While !  Resale calculation is theoretical !  Most systems are new (< 8 years old) "  No proof yet "  90% installed in last eight years !  Theory supports resale price up to value of !  Average home owner occupancy is 11 years "  http://www.census.gov/population/www/pop-profile/geomob.html net cost of a new system "  (Excluding renters who move more often) !  New system net prices actually rising "  Most have not been offered for sale "  Most solar homeowners seem to be planning on staying longer than average Questions? !  Few comparables & documented cases "  Need a comprehensive study and more evidence© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 172 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 173
  • 43. Biases If It’s Weird… !  It has to look good too Courtesy Sharp Electronics © Alan Wood!© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 174 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 175 Best Tests of Solar’s Viability Agenda !  Tests for financial viability: !  Overview of the Variables " Simple Payback !  Financial Analysis Methods " Total Lifecycle Payback !  Solar Tools " Return on Investment "  Analysis / Database Tools " Rate of Return analysis "  Sales / Proposal Tools " Increase in Appraisal Valuation !  Conclusion !  Interactive Examples Questions? Economics of Solar PV - 176 Economics of Solar PV - 177© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Analysis Tools Sales / Proposal Tools !  Clean Power Estimator - general customer educ. http://www.consumerenergycenter.org/renewables/estimator !  Home grown / proprietary company tools !  RETscreen - a standard model http://www.retscreen.net !  QuickQuotes !  PV Watts - the standard performance model http://www.nrel.gov/rredc/pvwatts/ !  CPF Tools !  PV Design Pro - hard core analysis http://www.mauisolarsoftware.com !  The OnGrid Tool !  PVSYST - study, sizing, simulation and analysis http://www.pvsyst.com !  OnGrid Tool - design & analysis portion© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 178 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 179
  • 44. Sales / Proposal Tools Home Grown/Proprietary !  Most companies have something !  Home grown / proprietary company tools !  Most control & customizable !  Must be maintained !  The OnGrid Tool "  Electric Rates "  Rebate, PBI, REC & other incentive info "  Tax incentive info "  Module & inverter info !  Accuracy & completeness Questions?© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 180 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 181 QuickQuotes CPF Tools !  Product of Clean Power Research !  Product of Clean Power Finance "  Makers of the Clean Power Estimator http:// "  http://www.cpftools.com www.clean-power.com/quickquotes/products.aspx !  Web Based (requires internet connection) !  Designed to produce high quality, credible quotes !  Provides customizable quotes, in a simple, easy-to-use, streamlined process !  Associated with Lead services !  Web Based (requires internet connection) "  Has some offline capabilities !  Based on Clean Power Estimator engine !  Provides customizable residential & commercial analysis & quotes© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 182 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 183 OnGrid Calculates The OnGrid Tool Cost & Performance !  Sales Tool !  Costs, Adders, all Incentives, Net Cost "  Quickly Identify & Screen Leads !  System Performance including Shading Data Upload: !  TOU kWh Performance "  Organizes Client Info $12,000 Annual Savings Before and After Payback !  Electric Bill $ savings $10,000 $8,000 Annual Savings $6,000 Design Tool $4,000 !  Performs Financial Analyses: $2,000 !  $- 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Year Annual Savings Before Payback Payback Year (Occurs at 9.7 Years) Annual Savings After Payback "  Size Systems Optimally "  Simple & Lifecycle Payback !  Proves the Payback "  Rate of Return analysis "  Cash Flow when financing $250,000 !  Automatically Creates Quotes & Proposals $200,000 Resale Value $150,000 "  Increase in Appraisal Valuation $100,000 $50,000 !  Prepares Documents & Paperwork $- Years 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 Provides spreadsheet proof Effective Resale Value (lesser of 20x annual or remaining 25yr savings) 20 times Annual Savings !  Remaining savings within 25 years© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 184 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 185
  • 45. OnGrid Tool OnGrid Calculates & Proposals & Documents Prepared: Shows Environmental Benefits !  60+ fully customizable pages OnGrid Solar 4175 Renaissance Dr #4 San Jose, CA 95134 Quotation & Contract for a Renewable Energy Power System Salesperson: Andy Black Phone: (408) 428-0808 Email: andy@ongrid.net Levels of detail & language Contractors License Number: Cont. Lic. # July 4, 2006 Contractors License Type: Cont Lic Type "  Your Logo Here P.S. State incentives will decline at the Client: Site Address: 117 So Mary Ave, #30 Mr. Sunny Customer and Ms. Happy Buyer Sunnyvale, CA 94087 Solar User Inc. SUBMITTED TO THE FOLLOWING. AUTHORIZATION TO: RECEIVE CUSTOMER INFORMATION (408) 111 1111H, (408) 222 2222C, (408) 333 3333x333W Mailing Address: 117 So Mary Ave, #30 Area of Equivalent Number of Trees Planted Area of Equivalent Polar Ice Saved cust@buyer.com Please check allSunnyvale, CA 94087 that apply: OR ACT ON A CUSTOMERS BEHALF Page ordering, logos, contact info, ! PG&E ! SoCalGas Relative to a Typical 6000 sqft House Lot (.14 acre) Relative to a Typical 2000 sq ft House Size PROJECT DESCRIPTION and MAJOR COMPONENTS: ! SCE Size (kW DC, SDG&E12.272 kW System ! STC) "  A 10.2 kW PV System, with turn-key installation at customers site address stated above. Pacific Gas and Electric THIS IS A LEGALLY BINDING CONTRACT _ READ IT CAREFULLY Mounting type: Composite roof. Company Major System Components: INTERCONNECTION AGREEMENT FOR DISTRIBUTION (Please Print or Type) Billing System Size (kW AC, CEC) System Pricing Details Customer-Generator 10.220 kW I, Sharp Corporation Sunny Customer Mr. ND-208U1 modules. 59 NET ENERGY METERING FOR Installed Systemowner $ 91,433 colors, text, graphics, etc. Price including Sales Tax & Shipping (before Rebate) Business Customer Center Module STC rating: 208W NAME TITLE (IF APPLICABLE RESIDENTIAL AND SMALL Estimated Buy-Down Program Rebate at $2.60/W** $ (26,572) to be paid to the installer of COMMERCIALMr. Sunny Customer SOLAR OR WIND REFERENCE Contract Price (Customer) have the following mailing address$ Net to Customer 64,861 ELECTRIC GENERATING FACILITIES OF NAME OF CUSTOMER OF RECORD 10 KILOWATTS OR LESS 3 SMA America SB3800U (240V) inverters. Current Payment ______________________ Acct No. Schedule: 117 So rating: 3800W each Inverter Mary Ave, #30 Sunnyvale CA 94087 Event do hereby Amount Approximate Date , and (%) appoint MAILING ADDRESS CITY STATE ZIP Initial Deposit (10% or $1,000) $ 1,000 July 17, 2006 DECLARATIONS Free support Upon ordering of materials (49%) $ 44,717 July 31, 2006 California Energy Commission Standard Components: of Upon 1516 Ninth materials to the jobsite (40%) $ delivery of St. MS-45 36,573 October 23, 2006 "  NAME OF THIRD PARTY MAILING ADDRESS Racking and mounting components per Uniform Building Code $ - AC and DC disconnects per National Electric Code and Utility $ - Sacramento CA 95814 Mr. Sunny Customer Wiring, conduit, and overcurrent protection per National Electric Code Upon municipal building/electrical inspection* (10%) $ ("Customer-Generator") and Pacific Gas and 9,143 November 6, 2006 CITY STATE ZIP Roofing sealant or flashings as needed Total Sale Price**: $ 91,433 Electric Company, also referred to as “Utility”, referred to collectively as "Parties" and individually as "Party," consistent with, and andorder to effectuate, the provisions of Sections the categories indicated below: to act as my agent in consultant (Agent) for the listed account(s) and in 2827 and 2827.7 of the California Public Utilities Sales Docs auto-prepared: Time for Completion: Code and Pacific Gas and Electric Company’s electric rate Schedule E-NET (“E-NET”), enter into this “Interconnection ACCOUNTS INCLUDED IN THIS AUTHORIZATION: Additional Components: The work to be performed by Contractor pursuant to this Agreement shall be commenced Agreement for Net Energy Metering For Residential and Small Commercial Solar or Wind Electric Generating Facilities !  within ________ days from this date or approximately on: October 23, 2006 of 10 KilowattsMary Ave, #30 1. 117 So or Less” (“Agreement”)1. This Agreement applies to theand shall be substantially completed within 14 days or approximately on: November 6, 2006 Sunnyvale Customer-Generator’s generating facilities Util Acct # identified below with the specified characteristics and generating capacity, and does not allow interconnection or NUMBER SERVICE ADDRESS Monitoring: CITY Construction Commencement Schedule: SERVICE ACCOUNT operation of facilitiesmonitor/display builtthose described. Accordingly, the Parties agree as follows: be defined as Standard different than into inverter Commencement of work shall 2. X Delivery of material to site, or SERVICE ADDRESS CITY SERVICE ACCOUNT NUMBER ____ __________________________________________________________ 1. DESCRIPTION Labor: Standard OF CUSTOMER-GENERATOR’S SOLAR OR WIND ELECTRIC GENERATING Contract/Quote 3. FACILITY (“Facility”) Design system and secure basic building or electrical permit Contractors failure to substantially commence work without lawful excuse, within twenty "  (Architectural, planning commission or other reviews are extra) CITY SERVICE ADDRESS (20) days from the date specified above is ACCOUNT NUMBER Contractors License Law. SERVICE a violation of the Install specified system in good workman like manner Complete and submit utility interconnection documents Additional Contract Provisions: (For more than three accounts, please list additional accounts on a separate sheet and attaceh it to this form) Project Coordinate building, electrical and utility inspections 1. All payments are due Net 10 days. 1% interest per month carrying charge. Identification Number: __________________________ 2. *System Completion occurs upon building or electrical inspectors permit signoff. Utility INFORMATION, ACTS AND FUNCTIONS AUTHORIZED-This authorization provides authority to the to 14 days after permit signoff. Additional Work: (Utility Log Number) inspection typically occurs 4 Agent. The Agent must thereafter CSI Applications provide specific written instructions/requests (e-mail is acceptable) about the particular account(s)rebate toany information days of receipt from the State 3. **Installer will refund before customer within 3 is released or 4. Quoted price includes electric utility fees, but not permit fees Interconnected Equipment: action is taken. In certain instances, the requested act or function may result in cost PV you, the customer. Requests for information California Energy Commission. 5. This to system includes athe 5-year warranty required by the may Equivalent Area of Trees Planted Typical 6000sqf Residential Lot Area Equivalent Area of Polar Ice Saved Typical 2000sqf Home Area "  be limited to the most recent 12 month period. Table 1. - List of generating equipment interconnecting with Pacific Gas and Electric Company’s Distribution ALLOWANCES: I (Customer)The followingmy Agent an act on my behalfthoseincluded in the contract price as actswithout an inverter, write in “N/A” System with, or without,specific prices as indicated are generators interconnecting and functions (initial all applicable boxes): authorize items or to inverter. (For to perform the following specific allowances. The contract price shall be adjusted based upon actual amounts rather than estimated amounts herein: in the rightnone or columns. If an inverter is shared by more than one generator, write “shared” on the same line _X_ three (1) _____________________________________________ > as that generator under the manufacturer column and do not enter used inverter rating. Attach account(s), as specified herein, 1. (2) ________________________________________________________ Request and receive billing records, billing history and all meter usage data the for bill caclulation fo all of my list of additional 3rd Party Authorization (3) ________________________________________________________ 1 equipment if applicable.) furnished by the Utility . regarding utiltiy services "  2. This quotation price is valid for 14 days from the above date, quotedmy account(s) concerning (initial all that apply): Request and receive copies of correspondence in connection with schedule is valid for 3 days. Trees > CO2, NOx, SOx, Particulates Salesperson Signature: Date: Type of Generator Verification of rate, date of rate change, and related information; Inverter > a. Generator Manufacturer for Inverter Rating !  (Solar / IfWind / b.decidesRating Servicegoods and services outlined above, this document shall become part of the Agreement for Supply and Installation > a Renewable Contracts and System Agreements; Inverter used with Model the customer to purchase the !  of Energy Power (watts) 2 which specifies additional terms and boilerplate consumer rights as part of a Home Improvement Contract. Hybrid) (watts) Generator c. Previous or proposed issuance of adjustments/credits; or Number Customer Acceptance Signature: Date: NEM/Interconnection Agreements 1 d. Other previously issued or unresolved/disputed billing adjustments Solar 11,400 W SMA America (to be signed when customer decides to purchase) SB3800U (240V) 10,773 W "  3. Request investigation of my utility bill(s). Generator Rating: =# of inverters * Inverter Rating 2 - W - W Inverter Rating =# of inverters * Inverter Rating * Inverter CEC efficiency 4. Request special metering, and the right to access interval usage and other metering data onmy account(s). !  Bags of Coal It is possible that the inverter rating might be the nameplate rating, rather than the CEC rating. For example, the IG3000 might be 3000W instead of 2700W. !  Equivalent Miles not driven 5. Request rate analysis. 16+ letter templates to use at various 1 6. Request rate changes. Additional forms are available upon request by telephoning 415-972-5676 or on PG&E’s website at "  http://www.pge.com/gen). 7. Request and receive verification of balances on my accounts(s) anddiscontinuance notices. 1 The Utility will provide standard customer information without charge up to two times in a 12 month period per service account. After two requests in a year, I undertstand I may be 2 The inverter rating equals: (the CEC efficiency for each installed inverter) TIMES (the nameplate rating, responsible for charges that may be incurred to process this request. stages of the sale in kW, of each inverter). The CEC efficiency is obtained on the CEC website at !  Arctic Ice Area http://www.consumerenergycenter.org/erprebate/eligible_inverters.html as listed on the date the !  Cars taken off the road application is reviewed. Enter the total of all inverter ratings for multiple inverter installations in the Table Revised 1/11/00 above. Page 1 of 2 Page 1 of 9 Form 79-854 Tariffs and Compliance Data entered once Revised November 6, 2003 Effective January 1, 2003 !  Advice 2373-E-B© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 186 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 187 Rates & Incentives !  Commercial, Residential, Agricultural The OnGrid Tool: !  West: CA, AZ, CO, HI !  East: PA, NJ, NY, DE, CT, MA, OH !  Always Up-to-date Rates, Incentives, etc !  Southeast: NC, FL, GA !  Coming soon: TX, OR, NV, MI, WA, !  Free Training & Support Web Conferencing MN, IL "  Learn Tool, ask Financial Analysis Questions !  Version 4_0 released March 2010 !  Low Cost: $100/mo (includes 2 users) "  No gimmicks "  Free for students, teachers, & non-profits !  No Risk - Money-Back guarantee© 2009 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics Solar PV - 18 Economics ofofSolar PV - 188 Economics of Solar PV - 189© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Scenario Options Use OnGrid Credibility With Your Customers !  User Customizable to Any Situation: !  8+ years of study of Solar Financial Analysis & Finance "  Commercial, Residential, Government !  NABCEP Certified Solar PV Installer Emeritus & Non-Profit !  Peer Reviewed Papers (12) & Published Articles (10+) "  Any size system: 0-1000MW !  Classes coast to coast (dozens) at PG&E/PEC, CCSE, SLI, SEI, NCSC, NESEA and at major conferences "  Any Rate Structure !  Conergy, AEE, & Solar Depot dealer events, etc "  Any Incentive: FIT, Rebate, PBI, REC, !  Linked on CSI GoSolarCalifornia official state website !  500+ subscribing users in Cal. & U.S. Tax Credits & Depreciation !  SEI Graduate, now instructor "  Any Insolation Location !  M.S. Electrical Engineering Marketing Certificate with emphasis in Finance !  Excel-based: Fast, Portable, non-web !  !  Newspaper, Radio & TV appearances & interviews© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 190 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 191
  • 46. Results with OnGrid Agenda !  Faster, Easier, More Accurate Selling !  Overview of the Variables !  Credible Financial Analysis !  Financial Analysis Methods "  More Effective Selling !  Solar Tools !  Faster & Easier Paperwork Completion "  Analysis / Database Tools "  Sales / Proposal Tools Questions? = More Sales Closed, Less Effort !  Brief Final Q&A Free Trial Available - License Agreement !  Conclusion Class Special – 15-Day Bonus Use !  Interactive Examples© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 192 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 193 Conclusion Notes !  Challenging topics - Congratulations! !  Good questions on: System Performance, Conclusion Electric Rates, Estimated Savings, Incentives and Net Costs !  5 Analysis Methods: Payback, Lifecycle Payback, Return on Investment (ROI), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Resale Value© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 194 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 195 Continue Learning Your Success My Goal: !  Free at OnGrid.net: Papers and Publications, !  Help you understand the topics better Slides, upcoming Classes and the OnGrid Tool. !  Be more confident in front of the customer !  OnGrid Tool Free Trial is an excellent learning vehicle to practice !  Know which customers to target, avoid timewasters !  Includes free Q&A sessions twice a week !  Make the best case to each customer, avoid !  Firmly root the knowledge that is is key to your mistakes, present strong info and analyses success !  I’m counting on you to go out and sell lots of systems© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 196 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 197
  • 47. Thanks Andy Black !  Solar Power International 10 The OnGrid Tool !  Solar Electric Power Association Solar Financial Analysis & Sales Software "  Stuart Raper & Julia Hamm !  Yennie Solheim !  Contact me with any questions or concerns !  Please turn in your feedback forms "  What you did/didn’t you like/want changed? (408) 428-0808x1 !  Stick around for the interactive session next! andy@ongrid.net !  Thank you for coming! www.ongrid.net - Tools, Classes, Articles & Papers …now go out and go BANANAs with your sales© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 198 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 199 Residential Interactive Example !  Give me the parameters and we’ll Interactive OnGrid Tool Examples look at the results in OnGrid model (for those who wish to stay) " Usage, system size, price, rebate " Tax bracket, inflation " Starting & ending rate schedule " % on-peak usage© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 200 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 201 Residential Interactive Example Andy Black The OnGrid Tool !  Notice sensitivity to variables: Solar Financial Analysis & Sales Software "  Inflation "  Tax bracket "  Usage & system size "  Price, rebate, tax credit (408) 428-0808x1 "  Rate schedule andy@ongrid.net "  % on-peak usage www.ongrid.net - Tools, Classes, Articles & Papers© 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 202 © 2010 OnGrid Solar, All Rights Reserved. Economics of Solar PV - 203
  • 48. !"#$#%&"(#)(*#+,-(!+."/-&"(*0/.%()#-(1#$2%.-3( 4,05,"6(,$7(#/8.-(9&$,$"&,+(:./( By Andy BlackSolar electric systems can be a good financial WHY DOES SOLAR PAY OFF NOW?investment for homeowners and businesses, Good system performance, high electric rates, Net Meteringdepending on a variety of factors including system and Time-Of-Use rate structures, Solar Renewable Energyperformance, electric rates, favorable utility rate Certificates (SRECs) and government incentives havestructures, and incentives. Several US states have the contributed to the financial viability of solar electricity. Howright combination of conditions to strongly encourage these factors come together varies significantly by location.end-consumer investment in solar electric systems Some locations have the combination of factors that yieldbased on economics alone. excellent results; in others, it makes no economic sense to go solar, especially when including the maintenance and inverter In places where solar is economically attractive, rates of return replacement costs.from 9% to 15% or better are common. If financed, the monthly The key element for most analyses is the ongoing valuenet loan cost is usually less than the monthly utility bill savings. generated by the solar system (the savings on the electric utilityAnd if the home is sold, the solar system should increase the bill or the monetary value of system output that can be sold). Aresale value by more than the system cost to install. properly sited, sized, designed, and installed solar system can The above claims are big, so rigorous treatment and critical usually eliminate most or all of a customer’s total annualanalyses from several angles including Compound Annual Rate electric bill.of Return, Cash Flow, Lifecycle Payback, and Appraisable The next pages will discuss system performance, electric rateResale Value need to be considered to do a fair assessment. structures, and incentives. The pages following will detail howUsing the above analysis methods helps compare the solar the economics can then be analyzed using Rate of Return,investment to other investments on an even basis. Payback and Lifecycle Payback, Property Value Increase, and Cash Flow when Financing.IN THIS ARTICLE: SYSTEM PERFORMANCE: ! What factors need to be considered to determine the Lots of Sunlight is just one of the many factors that must beeconomic payoff of solar, including rates, rate structures, included in a system performance calculation. Across much ofsystems performance, solar RECs, and incentives the United States, the amount of available sunlight is ! How to test the economic value in the ways listed above surprisingly uniform, with most areas within ± 20% of the This article also includes “Policy Discussion” paragraphs to sunlight level of Miami, Florida, as can be seen in Fig. 1. Thehelp individuals and policy makers in locations without strong National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has data oneconomics understand the issues around creating solar-friendly 239 locations across the U.S. and its territories available at:policies, which motivate and leverage individual investment. http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/pubs/redbook/ and its PVWatts calculator will determine performance for a user specified PV Equivalent Noontime Sun Hours per Day (Annual Average): Portland, OR 4.0 Buffalo, NY 4.1 Chicago, IL 4.4 Newark, NJ 4.5 Boston, MA 4.6 Baltimore, MD 4.6 Raleigh, NC 5.0 Miami, FL 5.2 Austin, TX 5.3 San Francisco, CA 5.4 Boulder, CO 5.5 Los Angeles, CA 5.6 Phoenix, AZ 6.5 Fig. 1. Most U.S. locations are ± 20% of Miami’s sunlight level. Sources: NREL: http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/pubs/redbook/ and http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.htmlEconomics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 1 of 19
  • 49. system: http://www.nrel.gov/rredc/pvwatts/. related problems (long wires can have a kind of ‘voltage buildup’ in the wiring causing the inverter to think the utility is There are numerous loss factors that affect real system not safe to connect with, requiring it to shut down for at least 5performance including component performance, wire losses, minutes). The only way to know if a system is operatingsoiling, module degradation, module mismatch, system uptime reliably is to monitor it as often as possible. Monthlyand reliability, manufacturer production tolerance, and system observations via the electric bill savings are a crude minimumdesign factors such as tilt, orientation, shading, and air flow. but can take 45 days or longer to make even a simple problemThe California Energy Commission has produced “A Guide To (sometimes only requiring a simple reset of the inverter) visible,Photovoltaic (PV) System Design And Installation” available at: resulting in over 12% of a year’s energy to be lost. Activehttp://www.energy.ca.gov/reports/2001-09-04_500-01-020.PDF continuous real-time monitoring and automated alertingand is an excellent overview of system design considerations. solutions are available that should more than pay for themselvesFig. 2 lists performance loss factors, and the significance of in increased savings, peace of mind, and owner satisfaction.potential relative losses from tilt, orientation, and shading. System Performance Factors Policy Discussion: Including Inverters aren’t 100% efficient, with most achieving 94-96% predicted or actual system performance in determining the levelefficiency. Similarly, PV modules in operation put out of incentive to be paid (then actually verifying compliance withapproximately 7-14% less power at realistic operating the approved design) is an excellent way for incentive agenciestemperatures compared to the Standard Test Conditions (STC) to improve system quality. Before California adopted thecommonly measured in factory or laboratory settings. The State requirements of the new California Solar Initiative (CSI)of California provides lists of module and inverter ratings at: program, a significant fraction of sold and installed systemshttp://www.gosolarcalifornia.org/equipment. had major shading or other site-selection design problems, Soiling, module degradation, and module mismatch also must often only disclosed to the customer with a hand-wave ofbe accounted for. The designer and installer have some control “you’ll lose a little performance due to shading…” The CSI hasover wire losses, but by code, must not exceed 5%. received a lot of criticism because of the increased level ofManufacturer production tolerance losses result from some paperwork, scrutiny and repercussions for “failures” frommodules having a performance specification of +X%, -Y%. If those who would rather do things the old, easy, loosey-gooseythere is a negative tolerance, the customer can be sure she will way, but in the author’s opinion, the new level of accountabilitybe on the losing end of that bargain to at least some extent. is the best thing that could have happened to raise the quality of installations in the state. This higher level of quality is nothing The system designer in coordination with the property owner new to those in some other states such as Colorado and in somehas control over how the modules are mounted, especially how municipal utilities like SMUD. Going forward, the author hasfar off the roof, affecting how much airflow occurs. Thermal grave concerns about the quality of systems that will bestagnation starts to occur with less than 6” clear airflow space installed as a result of the expansion of the federal Investmentbehind the modules and can reduce performance up to 10% at Tax Credit, which has no performance or quality safeguards.0” air gap. Typical Loss and Performance Factors: The designer and property owner also have control of solarsystem orientation (tilt angle or ‘altitude’ above horizontal and Loss Performance Variabledirection or azimuth), and usually some control over shading. Factor FactorShading and/or orientation are usually the #1 9-12% 88-91% Module Temperatureunderestimated system performance loss factors except inlocations where incentive programs specifically (directly or 3-11% 89-97% Inverter Efficiencyindirectly) include these in the calculation of the incentive to be 1.5-5% 95-98.5% Wiring (AC & DC combined)paid. It is critical that the site analyst / installer use a shadeanalysis tool to accurately determine shade. Quality shade tools 5-15% 85-95% Dust & Dirtinclude the Solar Pathfinder (http://www.solarpathfinder.com/), Module Degradation over 20Solmetric SunEye (http://www.solmetric.com/), and the Wiley 5-10% 90-95% yearsASSET (http://www.we-llc.com/ASSET.html). It is impossible 1.5-2.5% 97.5-98.5% Module Mismatchto estimate shading by eye, and even a few percent can besignificant. Avoiding shading is often the most important Manufacturer Production 0-5% 95-100%criteria, even over selecting a south-facing roof. Tolerance ~27-33% ~67-73% Typical Totals for the System availability (uptime) is dependent on system Best Systemsreliability and monitoring. A well-designed system withknown reliable components (particularly the inverter) is Additional Design-Dependent Factors:important. Placing inverters in shaded, well-ventilated locations 0-10% 90-100% Air Flowthat won’t accumulate ventilation-inhibiting debris willeliminate many common overheating-related problems (reduced 0-40% 60-100% Orientation & Tiltpower output due to thermal protection or shortened component 0-100% 0-100% Shadinglifetime). Placing the inverter close to the utility connection 2-100% 0-98% System Availability (uptime)point will eliminate many common utility interconnection Fig. 2. Summary of Performance and Loss FactorsEconomics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 2 of 19
  • 50. 2007 U.S. Average Retail Price per kWh is 9.13 Cents 2008 2004- 2001- 1990- State Rate 2008 2008 2008 ¢/kWh CAGR CAGR CAGR US 11.4 6.1% 4.1% 2.1% AZ 10.3 4.9% 3.1% 0.7% CA 14.4 4.2% 2.5% 2.1% CO 10.1 4.8% 4.5% 2.1% CT 19.4 13.6% 8.5% 3.7% DC 12.7 12.2% 7.2% 4.1% DE 13.9 12.2% 7.1% 2.8% FL 11.7 6.8% 4.5% 2.3% GA 10.1 6.4% 3.4% 1.7% HI 32.5 15.8% 10.3% 6.6% MA 17.5 10.5% 5.0% 3.4% MD 13.8 15.4% 8.8% 3.7% MN 9.8 5.4% 3.7% 2.0% NC 9.7 3.6% 2.6% 1.2% Average Retail Price (Cents per kWh) NJ 16.0 9.2% 6.6% 2.4% NM 10.0 3.7% 2.0% 0.6% NV 11.9 5.3% 4.0% 4.2% NY 18.8 6.6% 4.3% 2.8% OH 10.1 4.6% 2.8% 1.3%Fig. 3. The graphic above shows the 2007 U.S. average electric rates for all OR 8.5 4.4% 4.4% 3.3%sectors. The table at right shows 2008 average residential electric rates for PA 11.4 4.4% 2.4% 1.2%selected states and their Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) for threetime periods before 2008. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration: TX 12.8 7.2% 5.4% 3.3%http://www.eia.doe.gov/fuelelectric.html WA 7.6 4.4% 4.2% 3.1%ELECTRIC RATE STRUCTURES: efficient with how she uses electricity is to charge more for it, High Electricity Rates are an expensive fact of life in a but there are limits to how this can be appliednumber of US states and can be worse still in other countries. without disadvantaging lower incomeHawaii has the highest electric rates in the U.S. topping out at consumers. Many utilities have adopted a32¢/kWh for the average residential consumer (certain islands tiered pricing structure, as can been see in Fig.are higher), however, rates are also very high in Connecticut, 5, where the first part of a consumersCalifornia, New York and other states (Fig. 3). consumption is charged at a lower rate, but if the consumer uses more than a Rates have risen fast across the land since 2001 and especially “baseline” allocation (an amount deemedfast since 2004 (Fig. 3). Electric rate increases will likely be to be required to cover a consumer’stempered by the Great Recession of 2009. Future rate hikes can “basic needs”) she will pay more foronly be guessed at, as they depend on many factors. the next part of her usage. The In comparison, the Consumer Price index (CPI-U) has been more she uses, the more eachincreasing at 3.1% on average since 1982. One might ask, how kWh costs. The more tiers thereis it that electric rates have continuously increased faster than are in the system, the more thethe CPI – wouldn’t electricity become a bigger and bigger ratesportion of our consumerexpenses, until eventuallysomething brought it intocheck? The answer lies inthe fact that we arecontinuously getting moreefficient with how we useelectricity, so we are ableto produce more economicvalue per unit of electricity.We are therefore able tospend more per kWh. Fig. 4. Residential electric rates in California from 1970 to 2001 increased at a 6.7% compound One of the ways consumers annual rate (source: CPUC “Electric Rate Compendium” Nov. 2001 from EIA data). Since 2001,can be motivated to be more there has been no change in Tiers 1 & 2, but an exaggerated increase in Tiers 3-5. Enactment of AB413 and expiration of AB1X may alter these trends. Note: this graphic is to scale.Economics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 3 of 19
  • 51. $269/mo $127/mo $59/mo $43/mo bill at top of Tier 1 Fig. 5. Progressive tiered rate pricing penalizes large users most with a marginal electricity cost at ever increasing rates. In these cases, solar offsets the highest tier usage first, making the solar customer look like a smaller user with a lower marginal cost. The graphic on the left indicates which tier a user is in for a given monthly electric usage (1650 kWh) and bill ($499) in San Jose, CA. On the right, the green area represents how much is offset by solar (1225 kWh and $463 out of $499).can be fine-tuned, but also, the more complicated billing Rates in Tier 3, 4 & 5 have gone up and down dramaticallybecomes. Fig. 5 illustrates a “progressive” pricing model for since 2001, with a recent average rate of increase that has beenrates (similar to progressive tax structures), which attempts to very high (double digit). This high average will not continuediscourage large use while protecting smaller using consumers. forever because of the eventual expiration of California AB1XThe progressive model encourages conservation, efficiency, and (the date of this is unknown for a variety of complicatedconveniently for the solar industry, solar installations as well. reasons, but may be soon, depending on what happens withThe graphic in the right half of Fig. 5 shows how a solar system AB413). When this happens, it is anyone’s guess how themakes a user look like a smaller consumer (the green area is politics will fall, but one of three possibilities is likely: 1. Ratessolar generation, the red area is the remaining net usage), and in all tiers will move in lock step at a more normal rate ofoffsets the most expensive electricity first, yielding the greatest escalation, 2. Rates in Tier 3-5 will be frozen while Tier 1 & 2savings first, boosting the economics of solar. This particular catch up, or 3. Rates in Tier 3-5 will be reduced and rates incase is saving 44¢/kWh for the first set of production, 38¢/kWh Tier 1 & 2 will move up to compensate.for the next set, and so on. Not all utilities use the above A conservative approach to electricity escalation suggests a“progressive” pricing model. Some utilities offer discounts for 5% annual escalation – anything more than that might bebuying in bulk – the larger the use, the less expensive the cost of viewed as “optimistic” which may cause customers to becomethe next kWh. This may be rational in some utility cost models, concerned. The scenario examples depicted later will assumebut it doesn’t encourage conservation, energy efficiency or solar 5% except as noted. The goal of this article is to provide ainstallation. conservative set of assumptions and a “bullet-proof” analysis Fig. 4 shows the California rate history since 1970. From 1970 methodology, that if followed, will be acceptable to the broadto 2001, rates increased at a compound annual average rate of majority of serious potential customers, and provide them and6.7%, as can be seen in the lower left portion of the graphic. their financial advisors a solid basis for making an informedThings got considerably more complicated in 2001 because of decision.the California Power Crisis in conjunction with the deregulation Tiered Rate Policy Discussion: Progressive Tiered Rates areprocess that affected rates starting in 1996. excellent motivators of conservation and energy efficiency (and During the power crisis California’s AB1X legislation froze conveniently, solar), but they may also be the government andthe rates for residential users using at or below the average utility officials ‘public relations friend’ as well. By creatingusage for their local climate zone (which equals usage at or multiple tiers, policy makers can shift some of the burden ofbelow the top of Tier 2), but at the same time, created Tiers 3, 4 future rate increases to the larger (above average), moreand 5 at much higher rates (17-26¢/kWh). The users using well wasteful users (residential only) and thereby lighten the burdenabove average found their bills almost doubled upon on the users who are at or below average consumption. Thisimplementation of the change. It had the desired effect: high works well for residential usage, because it is easy to quantifyusing residential consumers quickly became motivated to the average consumption per typical household, howeverreduce their usage by conservation, efficiency, and some turned average consumption per business would be meaningless in thisto solar systems, dramatically increasing the solar market. context, since most communities want their local business to grow (efficiently) from year to year, so penalizing ever growing Rate escalation in California got more complicated thereafter usage would be counterproductive.as well. Because state law AB1X prohibits changes to the ratesfor Tier 1 and Tier 2, all the increase must be borne in Tiers 3, 4 High electric rates are among the most important factorsand 5. If revenue needs to increase by 10%, Tier 3, 4 & 5 rates determining who will have the best economics with solar,must increase approximately 50%. That happened on January however, high rates are only valuable if the customer can also1st, 2006 to PG&E residential customers, as seen in Fig. 4. enjoy Net Metering, a regulatory structure set up for solarEconomics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 4 of 19
  • 52. Time-Of-Use (TOU): Most residential electricity is billed to customers on a flat (or time independent) rate schedule, where electricity costs the customer the same at any time of the day. However, utilities often have increased demand for electricity during certain times of the day and certain days or months of the year. When this “Peak” demand occurs usually depends on local climate factors. For example, Arizona and California have their peak times near 4-6pm Monday thru Friday during the summer, because that’s the overlap of the workday and home activity, which both use air conditioning, which is one of the largest loads. At night and in the morning, because of the dry climate, it cools off, so the load is less. Eastern U.S. utilities see their peak demand all day long because the humidity keeps consumers using their air conditioning 24/7 in the home, and during the workday at work, so a typical peak period is 9am-9pm. To solve the increased demand regardless of when it occurs, utilities could build more power plants, but those plants would only run during peak times, which is only a relatively few hours of the year, and would therefore be an expensive solution on a per kWh produced basis because of the capital costs. Another solution is to encourage conservation during or load-shifting away from those “Peak” time periods. To create this encouragement, some utilities offer Time of Use Fig. 6. Net Metering allows the exchange of electricity (TOU) or Time of Day (TOD) rates, where the cost of produced or purchased to be valued at retail rates allowing electricity depends on the time of day and sometimes on the the grid to act like a 100% efficient battery for the consumer season of year. The TOU time periods and rates are usually to “store” her excess production during the day or over a labeled something like “Peak”, “Part-Peak” and “Off-Peak” and season until she needs it at night or during another season. often have a “Summer” and a “Winter” season.electricity producers (and sometimes certain other renewable The upper graphic in Fig. 7 shows the TOU pricing periodsproducers depending on the state) in 42 of the 50 U.S. states. for the PG&E E6 rate in California illustrating peak, part-peak, Under Net Metering, full retail value is credited when excess and off-peak time periods. Notice that there are also part-peakelectricity is produced and “sold” back to the utility, offsetting rates on weekends. The lower graphic shows the typicalthe customer’s electric bill (Fig. 6). There are a variety of Net (approximate) time periods of many Eastern U.S. utilities, suchMetering forms, the implementation of which vary by state and as in New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania.utility. An older form is “Monthly Net Metering,” whereby a High rates during peak periods encourage consumers to usesolar producer can eliminate her monthly electric bill, and any less or to change behavior and instead, consume the electricityexcess production would typically be paid to the producer at the during off-peak periods. Easy ways to shift usage are changingutility’s “avoided cost” or “fuel cost” per kWh (approximately what time of day laundry is done or when the pool filter pumps1-3¢/kWh). The problem is that solar production varies run at home. Small business sometimes have choice oversubstantially by season, so it is hard to design a system that whether to take service under a TOU rate schedule, and if so,balances a user’s needs in each of the 12 months without under- they may be able to save money by shifting how or when theyproducing in one season (usually winter) and over-producing in do things, such as change to 2 or 3 shifts of work hours, orthe other. Under-production results in large bills charged at high change when they make ice or pump water or do other energyretail costs of electricity. Over-production creates small credits intensive activities. Large businesses and many agriculturalbased on the “avoided cost” value of the excess energy. (pumping and refrigeration) operations have no choice and must The solution is the newer “Annual Net Metering,” which take TOU service, so are always encouraged in a financial way.allows summer excess production to offset winter shortfalls, TOU rate differentials between Peak and Off-Peak can rangewith the goal of allowing the customer (or her knowledgeable from just a cent or two, to up to 20¢/kWh or more, dependingand experienced designer/installer) to right-size the system to on the utility’s need to motivate change. In PG&E territory infully offset the annual electric bill, but not over-size it. With California, a further twist is that the tiered rate structure isannual Net Metering, the utility ends up looking like a 100% applied on top of the TOU rates (residential only), so off-peakefficient battery that can store energy for up to a year at no loss Tier 1 rates are as low as 9-10¢/kWh depending on season, butor penalty. The other half of this compromise is that any excess the summer peak Tier 5 rate can be over 61¢/kWh. That sounds thproduction credit after the 12 month is given to the utility, expensive, and it is, and one might question the wisdom of evendiscouraging over-sizing of systems and simplifying the utility’s considering switching to a TOU rate schedule, but there is aaccounting and saving them the processing costs of sending a convenient opportunity that solar customers can apply in theircheck or carrying a credit. favor.Economics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 5 of 19
  • 53. Residential PG&E "E6" Time-of-Use Pricing Periods Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Midnight - 6am Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak 6am - 10am Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak 10am - 1pm Off-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Off-Peak 1pm - 7pm Off-Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Off-Peak 7pm - 9pm Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak 9pm - Midnight Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Eastern U.S. Typical Residential Time-of-Use Pricing Periods Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Midnight - 9am Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak 9am - Noon Off-Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Off-Peak Noon - 9pm Off-Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Off-Peak 9pm - Midnight Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Fig. 7. Time-of-Use rate structures showing typical peak, part-peak and off-peak time periods for Western and Eastern U.S. utilities. Combining Net Metering with TOU allows a solar customer between peak and off-peak, the more motivated the user will beto take advantage of the benefits of Net Metering on a TOU rate (solar or not) to conserve during peak pricing periods. Effectiveschedule and, if timing and consumption patterns allow, “sell” TOU rate implementations help flatten out the utility’s loadenergy to the utility during peak periods at the high rate, then profile, requiring fewer “peaker” power plants which operatebuy energy during off-peak hours. The customer gets credited or at very high cost per kWh delivered (once capital costs/debtcharged for the value of the electricity when it is bought or sold service are included), because such plants run only a few hours(at its prevailing retail rate at that time). The utility then looks per year. In the right locations, solar can provide some of thislike a >100% efficient battery because in many cases, most “peaker” benefit. Solar advocates can use this to encouragesolar electricity is produced during peak hours, and most is their Public Utility Commissions and Legislatures to adopt pro-consumed in a residence during part-peak and off-peak hours. TOU policies.The customer gets more value for the same kWh produced, and Rate Structure vs. (Cash) Incentives Policy Discussion:therefore needs a smaller solar system to offset her electric bill. Economically viable solar systems are incentivized thru bothThe greater the differential in peak to off-peak rates, and the cash or cash equivalent (tax saving) payments and electric rate-better the solar production matches peak hours, and the better based (or regulatory) savings. Solar-friendly rate structures arethe homes consumption matches off-peak hours, the greater the incentives because they provide a higher value benefit to solarbenefit of opting for the TOU rate schedule upon adding the customers compared to the “commodity” value of the electricitysolar system. producers could otherwise sell into the power pool at This approach often (but not always) works well in utility commodity rates (as QFs or Qualifying Facilities). Using cashareas that have large daytime summer peak loads (often due to incentives to encourage solar is easy to understand, but it isair conditioning load), such as in the Eastern, Southern, and also highly visible, and there are several drawbacks comparedSouthwestern U.S., because this usually matches solar with solar-friendly rate structure incentives. Cash and cashproduction well. However, some northern utilities are winter equivalent incentives can and do come and go depending on thenight peaking because their peak load is caused by electric political winds. Even long-term incentive programs, such asheating loads of homes. In these cases, solar is a poor match. German EEG law or the California Solar Initiative could be overturned or modified with a change in government or its TOU Net Metering works best if the customer can mount her attitude. Spain is learning this the hard way after the summersolar array in a way that maximizes production during the peak and fall of 2008. The U.S. solar market became painfully awareperiod, for example facing southwest or south at an angle near of its dependence on the extension of the 30% Federal25 degrees up from horizontal (equal to a 6:12 roof). Slopes Investment Tax Credit which was due to expire at the end offrom 5 to 40 degrees and southeast and west arrays generally 2008 but was passed at the last moment as part of thealso work quite well. Note: it is usually not economically Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008. Regulatoryfeasible to tilt a solar array away from parallel with the roof’s incentives are much more difficult to achieve, however, oncesurface to optimize performance, because the gain in production won, they are also much more difficult to lose. Any state with(bill savings) is often not worth the additional mounting Net Metering, TOU, or Tiered rates is likely to have them for ahardware and labor cost or the aesthetic penalty. long time and it will be a huge battle to take them away. TOU Policy Discussion: Time-of-Use rates are a powerfultool to motivate customers to voluntarily use less power duringpredictable times of shortage. The greater the differentialEconomics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 6 of 19
  • 54. INCENTIVES: ! Equipment delivered and construction / installation There are several ways the government (in its various forms) completed. Minor tasks like painting need not be finishedcan provide incentives for solar. Already discussed were the ! Taxpayer has taken legal title and controlregulatory forms of incentive via favorable rate structures. Here, ! Pre-operational tests demonstrate the equipment functionswe discuss the various “Cash” or “Cash Equivalent” incentives, as intendedwhich include: ! Taxpayer has licenses, permits, and PTO (permission to ! Tax Credits and the U.S. Treasury Grant operate) ! Accelerated Depreciation Both the residential (Sec. 25D) and commercial (Sec. 48) ITC ! Sec. 179 Tax Deduction interaction with the ITC & Grant are one-time credits received when filing taxes for the year the ! Cash Rebates and Buy-downs system was placed in service. If not completely useable in the ! Performance Based Incentives (PBIs) system installation tax year, in theory, the residential ITC can be ! Feed-In Tariffs carried forward indefinitely but may run into the practical ! Tax abatements (waivers of sales and/or property taxes) difficulty that the 5695 tax form may no longer exist after the ! SRECs (Green Tags) mandated by state law 2016 tax year unless the IRS makes it available. SEIA is The Database for State Incentives for Renewable Energy (The working to address this with the IRS. The ITC can be carriedDSIRE database, http://www.dsireusa.org/solar/) is a database forward only by necessity, and must be claimed as soon asof all state and federal incentive programs around the country possible (i.e. can’t be carried forward simply for convenience).for all types of renewable energy and also energy efficiency, The business credit can be carried forward 20 years and may beand provides specific details and links state by state and at the able to be carried back for certain businesses under the Netfederal level. Operating Loss rules. The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) has put As part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act oftogether an excellent and well researched “Guide to Federal Tax 2009 (ARRA), in order to stimulate the economy, and inIncentives for Solar Energy”, available free to members as a particular, the solar industry, commercial solar systems (Sec. 48membership benefit. Learn more at: http://www.seia.org/. ITC only) are able to convert the ITC that would normally be received at the end of the tax year, and only if there was tax Tax Benefits such as Tax Credits and Depreciation may be appetite, into a U.S. Treasury Grant that can be received asavailable to certain taxpayers who install solar energy early as 60 days after project completion or applicationequipment. The information in this article regarding taxes, tax (whichever is later). Only projects placed in service in 2009 orcredits and depreciation is meant to make the reader aware of 2010, or projects started in 2009 or 2010 and placed in servicethese benefits, risks and potential expenses, and help avoid before the end of 2016 are eligible for Grant treatment. Thisoverblown claims by aggressive salespeople. It is not tax solves the lost “time value of money” due to lengthy carry-advice, and the author is not a qualified tax professional. forwards for taxpayers with limited ability to use the ITC.Please seek professional advice from a qualified tax advisorto check the applicability and eligibility of incentives for a Most of the rules and eligibility for the Grant are the same asparticular situation. for the ITC, except as noted above. More information is available at: http://www.treasury.gov/recovery/ and Tax Credits come in several forms: Federal, State and Local. http://www.treasury.gov/recovery/1603.shtml.Thru the end of 2008, the Federal Investment Tax Credit(ITC) for Residential (individual tax filers) was 30% of system Although the ITC is received effectively “up-front” when thecost basis, capped at $2,000 for systems installed before the end system is installed (or at the end of that tax year), it is actuallyof 2008. From 2009 thru 2016 it is a full 30% (without cap). earned over 5 years in equal 20% increments. If the propertyThe residential ITC can be found in Sec. 25D of the Internal becomes ineligible for the ITC (is disposed of or sold by theRevenue Code (IRC) and can be claimed using IRS form 5695. taxpayer, taken out of service, or taken outside of the U.S.), IRC Sec. 50(a)(1) stipulates that the taxpayer must repay the The residential ITC will expire at the end of 2016 if not unearned portion via the recapture mechanism. For example, ifextended. Federal taxability of state, local, or utility rebates the taxpayer sells the system after 2.8 years of ownership, sheaffect the ITC system cost basis significantly, so please see the has only earned 2 of 5 years (40%) of the ITC, and must repay“No Double Benefit” section of this article (below) that 60%.discusses Sec. 136(b) of the IRC. The U.S. Treasury Grant has the same recapture mechanism, The Federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for Business but is slightly more relaxed. If the property is sold to anotherowned systems (IRS Schedule C business tax filers) is 30% of eligible party, the original party receiving the grant is notnet system cost with no cap for systems that are “placed in subject to recapture as long as the receiving party maintains theservice” by the end of 2016 (IRC Sec. 48). After 2016, if not property’s Grant eligibility for the remainder of the 5 years. Ifextended, the tax credit will revert to the previous permanent they don’t, the original party will suffer the recapture event.level of 10%. The IRS current federal form is 3468 available athttp://www.irs.gov/formspubs/. In 2008, home-based businesses (if >20% business allocation of the home) typically qualified for the ITC as well. Because the “Placed in service” as defined by the SEIA “Guide to Federal credit applies on both individual (residential) and business taxTax Incentives for Solar Energy” occurs when all of the returns, but was capped on residential, it needed to be properlyfollowing have occurred:Economics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 7 of 19
  • 55. apportioned on each part of the tax return to ensure the right $85K ($100K minus one half of the $30K ITC). If thecredit amount is claimed. Home-based businesses are typically customer’s federal tax rate were 28%, the federal depreciationapportioned based on percentage of square footage attributed benefit would be approximately $24K ($85K times 28%).exclusively to the business. To figure the credit, one typically The state depreciation benefit is the state tax rate times theapplies the percentages to the two separate calculations then state depreciation basis, which may be different from the federalsums the results. From 2009 to 2016 with the uncapped ITC, depreciation basis, and may be affected by any state rebatesthis distinction is probably no longer relevant. received. Unfortunately, for the same reasons that state income Beginning in 2009 taxpayers (individuals and businesses) will tax credits aren’t really worth their face value, similarly, thebe able to claim the federal ITC even if they are subject to the state depreciation net benefit must factor in the effective federalAlternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Systems placed in service taxation effect of reducing state taxes.before the end of 2008 can suffer AMT limitation because the Federal depreciation for solar uses the MACRS 5-yearsolar ITC (and Accelerated Depreciation discussed in the next Accelerated Depreciation schedule and is calculated on IRSsection) are ‘Tax Preference Items’ that can cause AMT and form 4562. MACRS stands for Modified Accelerated Costlimit the enjoyment of the ITC benefit, even if the taxpayer Recovery System, and is a way of allowing businesses towasn’t subject to AMT before getting the solar system. Even depreciate some property more quickly than the normalwith the ITC “AMT relief” starting in 2009, the Accelerated schedule, to receive the write-off sooner (accelerate the benefit).Depreciation may still cause an AMT situation for businesses. Though it is called “5 year MACRS” it generally uses the “half- There is an open question in the solar industry about the year convention” assuming the property is placed in service inapplication of the ITC to “property used for lodging”. Sec. the middle of the tax year, which allows a lesser share of the50(b)(2) indicates that the Federal ITC is not available for write-off in the first year and extends the write-off into the 6th“property used for lodging”. This sentence has created a fair bit year. Different numbers may apply if the property was placed inof concern for the solar industry, because it appears to exclude service late in the tax year. Home-based business systems mayhotels/motels and rental property. However, Sec. 50(b)(2)(D) also qualify for proportional depreciation (if the business use ofseems to exempt “Any energy property” (which solar is as the property is greater than 50%).defined in Sec. 48(a)(3)(A)(i) “equipment which uses solar In 2008 and 2009 only, as part of the Economic Stimulus Actenergy to generate electricity”) from this exclusion. The author of 2008 and the ARRA of 2009, businesses can also receivehas not received a definitive answer from a qualified tax ‘50% Bonus Depreciation’ meaning that they can furtherprofessional or the IRS as to whether hotels and rentals are accelerate half the future depreciation amounts into the firsteligible. Thanks to Chad Blanchard and Michael Masek for year (2008 or 2009) the project was placed in service (it doeshelping research this. not mean they are getting 50% extra depreciation, just getting Please seek qualified tax advice before accepting anyone’s half of it even sooner). The 5-Year MACRS schedules (half-claims of applicability of these or other tax benefits to a year convention) are:particular situation. State Income Tax Credits are available in several states, Year 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6thsuch as Oregon, Hawaii, New Mexico, and New York, and can Not 2008 20% 32% 19.2% 11.52% 11.52% 5.76%be quite generous. However, potential recipients should be or 2009aware that if they itemize their federal tax deductions, a state tax 2008 and 60% 16% 9.6% 5.76% 5.76% 2.88%credit isn’t worth its full face value. When itemizing, state taxes 2009 onlyare usually deductible off federal taxable income. Reducing Fig. 8: MACRS Federal Depreciation Schedules for 2008 andstate taxes by the state tax credit means that federal taxable net 2009 and years other than 2008 or 2009.income will go up. In effect, federal income tax will be paid onthe value of the state tax credit. For most people, a state tax State depreciation sometimes depends on the type of business.credit is worth about 65-85% of its face value. In California, it is split between “Corporate” and “Non- Corporate” businesses. Non-Corporate businesses use the Depreciation and Accelerated Depreciation may be a regular federal MACRS 5-year accelerated depreciationpossibility for business owned systems. Depreciation is a (without the 50% bonus). California corporate businesses usemethod of ‘writing-off’ expenses for long lasting (durable) 12-year straight-line depreciation for state depreciation. Pleasegoods such as cars, computers, etc. The ‘write-off’ is generally check the DSIRE database for the applicable depreciation forrequired to be spread over several years, depending on the type other states.of property. Since depreciation is a write-off, it reduces taxableincome, and thus reduces tax liability. The net federal benefit of The Sec. 179 Deduction has a negative interaction with thedepreciation is the federal tax rate times the federal depreciation federal ITC and U.S. Treasury Grant. If the taxpayer uses eitherbasis. The federal depreciation basis amount is the federal ITC the ITC or the Grant for part or all of the property, they may notbasis, minus one-half the federal ITC amount (85% of the ITC also claim the Sec. 179 deduction for that part. The ITC orbasis in the case of the current 30% ITC). For example, a Grant benefit, combined with MACRS depreciation are muchsystem costing $100K (ignoring any rebate for this example) more valuable than the Sec. 179 Deduction. In previouswould have a tax credit basis was $100K, and thus receive a situations (typically Commercial Economics classes), the author$30K federal ITC (30%). Its federal depreciation basis would beEconomics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 8 of 19
  • 56. incorrectly suggested that Sec. 179 may also be available and at either the federal or state level, or both. Contrary to what wasmight be able to be used with caution in certain situations. written in previous versions of this article, there appear to be significant grounds for individual (residential) taxpayers in Rebates, Buy-downs, and Grants provide direct cash some states to claim the rebate payment is non-taxable. Sec.incentives to purchasers or their installers. These types of 136(a) of the IRC specifies that ‘direct or indirect utilityincentives are usually proportional to system size based on the payments (i.e. from ratepayer funds) for energy conservationrated wattage of the system, and are often limited to a measures may be excluded from taxable income, where energypercentage of total system cost and/or a fixed total dollar conservation measures reduce the consumption of energy in aamount. The rating systems vary by program, using the CEC, dwelling.’ PV systems are energy conservation measuresPTC, or STC rating systems. In cases where a rebate is received, (source: Wiser & Bolinger, Lawrence Berkeley Lab - LBL).the customer can usually also enjoy savings via Net Metering on Therefore it seems clear that utility direct paid rebates for PV toher electric bill. homeowners are non-taxable, such as in most of California, Rebate programs are usually run and/or overseen by either a Colorado, New Jersey, and some other states.state agency or a utility, often in compliance with a state law or Other states, such as Florida, or cities such as San Francisco,voter initiative. pay rebates from general funds collected from taxpayers (not Rebate payments are paid and received up front, and are not ratepayers). In these cases, Sec. 136 would probably not apply,based on actual system performance. At best, they can be and the rebate payments would probably be taxable.adjusted to account for expected performance. Expected Less clear are rebates that are funded from ratepayer sources,performance rebates may be adjusted by the expected relative but paid by non-utility administrators, such as the Californiasystem performance compared to an optimal or ideal system, Energy Commission or the Energy Trust of Oregon. In a privatetaking into account reductions in performance due to shading, letter ruling an IRS administrative law judge found that thetilt, orientation, and/or geographic location (to account for Energy Trust of Oregon rebate was indeed tax exempt, but thevariations in sunlight levels due to location). reader is cautioned to note that private letter rulings are not Performance Based Incentives (or PBIs) provide incentive precedents and do not bind a different IRS administrative lawpayments based on actual delivered system performance, and so judge to the same finding, nor do they apply to any otherautomatically account for shading, tilt, orientation, and taxpayer than the one named in the ruling. It is not expected thatgeographic location, as well as the other factors mentioned in the IRS will make a public ruling, so it’s likely to remain a greyFig. 2. The PBI amount is usually a set value in cents per kWh area for now.(commonly 10-40¢/kWh) paid for each kWh produced, Some state agencies, such as the California Energymeasured, and reported by the system for a set number of years Commission have issued 1099 tax forms to rebate recipients.(commonly 1, 3, 5, 10, 15, or 20 years) from the date the system Simply receiving a 1099 tax form may not require payment ofis first placed in service. Usually PBIs are received in addition tax on the amount. Such a 1099 may be advisory and a way forto the customer savings via Net Metering of her electric bill. the issuer to cover itself and ensure compliance with IRS rules, Since PBI payments are paid over time the customer must even if Sec. 136 applies. On the other hand, not receiving await for payment, and bear the risk that something will interfere 1099 doesn’t excuse the taxpayer from tax liability if due (i.e. ifwith system performance. Because of the time value of money, Sec. 136 doesn’t apply). Please check with a qualified taxand this additional risk, the total of the PBI payments must be professional when making these important decisions.more than a rebate would have been in order to provide an equal It was mistakenly suggested in previous writings of this articletime- and risk-adjusted incentive. This increases the cash cost of that if the installer accepted the rebate on the customer’s behalf,the incentive program to the incentive provider, but increases it might eliminate the customer’s rebate tax liability. The authorcustomer attention to her system (in order to receive payment), has been informed that this is not true, and that tax is due whenso per kWh delivered, PBIs may be more cost effective to the value is received (including non-monetary value in the form ofincentive providing agency and funding parties than rebate-type part of a PV system), unless specifically exempted (as may beincentives. the case if Sec. 136 applies) (source: Wiser, LBL). There is a major marketing benefit to PBI programs as well. Despite this, there are other reasons why it is still better forUnlike rebates, which are received one-time up-front when the the customer to have the installer accept the rebate as part ofcustomer is already excited about her system, PBIs are received payment for the project: 1. Less cash is required (by theat regular intervals (usually every 1, 3, or 6 months) providing customer) during the project, and 2. The customer has greaterthe customer a reminder of her solar system and a reason to leverage over the installer should the installer do a substandardsmile (or call for warranty service). A smart installer or job (if either the customer or inspector doesn’t sign off on thesalesperson will time her follow-up communications to the job, the rebate may be withheld). This is less attractive for thecustomer to ensure the customer got her PBI check, and also to installer because it hurts her cash flow, but might provide her amake sure she is remembered for referrals. This residual benefit sales advantage over a competitor. It doesn’t impact thecan last for years, generating many new sales. installer’s tax return because the rebate is part of the job’s Taxability of Rebates and PBIs: Depending on the structure revenue whether received directly or thru the customer, and allof the program, and the type of taxpayer (residential or job revenue minus expenses is already subject to taxation.commercial), rebates, PBIs, and grants may be taxable incomeEconomics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 9 of 19
  • 57. A sales and cash flow optimization strategy is to have the were lower than 30%, then she would prefer the rebate becustomer pay full price and receive the incentive directly unless taxable (if she had a choice or if she and her tax advisor feelshe requests otherwise, optimizing installer cash flow on as there is enough uncertainty in the applicability of Sec. 136)many jobs as possible, while providing the sales flexibility to because she would then pay less in rebate tax than she wouldmatch the competition upon customer request. gain in getting the full ITC. On the other hand, a taxpayer in a tax bracket over 30% would prefer the rebate to be non-taxable. Non-profits, governments and schools don’t pay income taxes, Each 1% of difference between the customer’s tax bracket andso incentives received are generally not taxable. 30% makes 1% difference in the net value of the rebate to them. Business/commercial solar system rebates are likely subject to For most taxpayers, this isn’t going to be very much in absolutetaxation, as Sec. 136 applies only to systems installed on the dollars either way compared to the total cost of a PV system, asdwellings of individual taxpayers. There is no known exemption is evidenced by the examples.for business taxpayers, but it turns out that, in general, a For business taxpayers, Sec. 136 does not apply, and there isbusiness wouldn’t want to use it – more on this later. no other known section of the IRC that might exempt the rebate No Double Benefit: Sec. 136(b) states that if the rebate is tax from federal taxation. This turns out to be convenient, becauseexempt, then the taxpayer will need to reduce the tax credit while paying tax on the rebate is a cost, not only does it allow abasis for any related ITC, and will then get less tax credit. On larger ITC to be enjoyed, but since the depreciation basis isthe other hand, if she does pay tax on the rebate, then she does proportional to the ITC basis, it allows more depreciation to benot deduct the rebate amount when she calculates the tax credit enjoyed as well. The larger amounts of both ITC andbasis (and therefore get relatively more tax credit benefit). depreciation far more than compensate for the tax on the rebate. See Fig. 10 for a comparison of the two results. For residential taxpayers, the above interaction and theimportance that Sec. 136 apply to any rebate she has received Even when the rebate is taxed, it is usually only taxed by thewas much more significant before 2009, because the Federal federal government. State governments that have enactedITC was capped at $2,000. Now that the Federal ITC is an rebates in support of solar generally don’t tax their ownuncapped full 30%, the impact is usually far less, and depends incentives, however, tax laws vary by state, so check with youron the marginal tax rate of the customer. If the taxpayer’s state taxing authority.bracket is 30%, then it makes no difference to the customer PBI Taxation: Since PBIs are paid over time and the totalwhether the rebate is federally taxable or not, since she will gain value that will be received is unknowable at the time the federalthe same amount either in no tax on the rebate or in higher ITC ITC needs to be calculated, the interaction between them andvalue. See the 4 cases illustrated in Fig. 9. If her tax bracket the ITC is less straightforward. For businesses, PBIs are almost certainly taxable. Case 1: Non-Taxable Rebate For residential customers however, one might be able to argue $100K System Cost that Sec. 136 should also make PBIs paid from ratepayer funds -$30K Rebate for PV systems non-taxable, but this would create the difficulty -$21K Tax Credit Value (30% of $70K after rebate cost) of calculating how much to reduce the ITC basis by, since it =$49K Net Cost would require the impossible task of calculating the present value of the unknowable stream of PBI payments that will be Case 2: Taxable Rebate at 30% Federal Tax Bracket received as and if the PV system produces electricity. Even if $100K System Cost -$30K Rebate +9K Rebate Tax ($30K * 30% Fed Tax) Case 1: Non-Taxed Rebate -$30K Tax Credit Value (30% of $100K) $150K System Cost =$49K Net Cost -$50K Rebate -$30K Tax Credit Value (30% of $100K) Case 3: Taxable Rebate at 20% Federal Tax Bracket -$35K Depreciation Value (85K * 41%) $100K System Cost =$35K Net Cost -$30K Rebate +$6K Rebate Tax ($30K * 20% Fed Tax) Case 2: Taxed Rebate -$30K Tax Credit Value (30% of $100K) $150K System Cost =$46K Net Cost -$50K Rebate +17.5K Rebate Tax ($50K * 35% Fed Tax) Case 4: Taxable Rebate at 40% Federal Tax Bracket -$45K Tax Credit Value (30% of $150K) $100K System Cost -$52K Depreciation Value (127.5K * 41%) -$30K Rebate =$20.5K Net Cost +$12K Rebate Tax ($30K * 40% Fed Tax) -$30K Tax Credit Value (30% of $100K) 41% = combined net federal & state tax rate (35% Federal =$52K Net Cost & 8.84% CA State) Fig. 9. Residential examples of rebate/ITC interactions. Fig. 10. Commercial examples of rebate/ITC interactions.Economics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 10 of 19
  • 58. you could agree with the IRS on a discount rate for PBI industry (which was over 40% of the world solar market inpayments to be received in the future, no one can know how 2008) is effectively completely shut down as of 2009.many kWh will actually be produced until it has happened, ! Solar benefits some customers much more than otherswhich is usually well after the ITC needs to be calculated and (customers high in the rate tiers, those with avoidablesubmitted with a tax return. Guidance from Mark Bolinger at demand charges, and/or those who can benefit from Time-of-LBL (not a qualified tax professional, but someone who has Use rates), each of which is a hidden artifact of Net Metering.studied this in greater depth than the author, see “Further Losing the Net Metering benefit levels the playing field, whichReading” at end for more info) is to assume PBIs are taxable for is democratic, but removes a lot of existing salesresidential customers as well as businesses, to be on the safe opportunities for those who know where to look, and mayside. completely eliminate the market if the FIT is set too low. Of course, the ideal and much more valuable result would be ! FITs have no ‘End Game’ unless the customer can switchfor the IRS to accept an argument that the PBIs are non-taxable back to Net Metering (without other incentive) at her choice.to homeowners due to Sec. 136, but also not challenge the This means that if only FITs are available (without Nethigher claimed amount of the ITC since there was no rebate Metering), the FIT payment can never be reduced to 0¢/kWhreceived up front to reduce it. The author is not advocating this because the customer will always need some payment to makepotentially risky strategy, and a competent qualified tax it worth going solar (since she won’t be saving on her electricprofessional should be consulted before considering this bill). This makes the solar industry perpetually dependent onmaneuver. However, it is fairly certain that even if the IRS the existence of FITs and their future renewal. If the customerwould to approve such an approach, they aren’t likely to chase can always choose between a FIT or Net Metering, then thisthe taxpayer around attempting to provide a refund unless she problem goes away, because once the Net Metering benefitfiles her taxes in this way. becomes greater than the FIT payment, customers will chose Feed-In Tariffs (FITs) are very similar to PBIs in that they Net Metering.provide a payment to the customer for each kWh delivered to Tax Abatements are offered by some taxing jurisdictions inthe grid. The difference being that usually a Feed-In Tariff is the the form of Sales Tax or Property Tax exemptions. Many statesonly benefit received from owning the solar system – there is no exempt solar systems from being included in the assessed valueNet Metering benefit, so the customer continues to pay her of a home, so installing a solar system doesn’t cause theregular electric bill. In order to make Feed-In Tariffs attractive, homeowner’s property taxes to increase. For example, solarthe payment per kWh needs to be higher than a comparable PBI systems installed in California between January 1, 1999 andbecause of the lost Net Metering. Common feed-in tariff terms January 1, 2017, are exempt from triggering Property Taxare 10, 15, and 20 years. reassessments (California Taxation Code, Sec. 73). Sales Tax Gainesville, Florida and Ontario, Canada have implemented exemptions help reduce the up-front cost of the solar system.feed-in tariffs. Gainesville’s tariff of 32¢/kWh for 20 years was Solar Renewable Energy Credits/Certificates (often knownvery popular and used up the first allocation of money quickly. as SRECs, S-RECs, sRECs, RECs, or Green Tags) are a newOntario’s first attempt at CAD 42¢/kWh for 20 years was not and growing way to value the greenness of the energy from ahigh enough to be strongly popular, so in May 2009 revised solar energy system. SRECs represent the bundle of legal rightsincentives of CAD 44-80¢/kWh depending on system size and to the green part of each kWh produced by a solar system. Thismounting type were proposed (not yet finalized). green part can be sold for a value, which generates additional Feed-In Tariff Policy Discussion: Feed-In Tariffs (FITs) are revenue for the seller.very simple incentives for solar, and are very popular in SREC value is created in two common ways. The first is theGermany and Spain because they have very quickly created “voluntary” market, where individuals buy SRECs as a way oflarge markets in each of those countries. There are a number of “greening” their world by paying extra to someone else torisks associated with FITs however: install some new solar capacity, often because they can’t or! The incentive is 100% visible, and makes solar look chose not to make the large, long-term investment themselves. expensive, making it an easy target for solar detractors, This is common for apartment dwellers and business renting the whereas Net Metering ascribes value to the publicly received space they occupy. Business such as Kinko’s, Wal-Mart, Whole benefit of the electricity generated and delivered when the Foods, and White Wave (the makers of Silk soy milk) have utility needs it. The cost to the ratepayer is equal, so it’s a bought SRECs to offset some of the emissions from their matter of perceptions and visibility, however Net Metering operations. better reflects the public benefits. Voluntary SREC purchases do actually “green” the grid if! The entire incentive for solar becomes vulnerable to political they result in net new solar (or wind or other renewable changes – FITs can come and go with a change of elected or generation depending on the type of REC or Green Tag appointed officials, creating potentially large changes in purchased) that wouldn’t have been installed if the SRECs fortunes of the solar industry. Germany and Spain both found weren’t purchased for the agreed price. For example, a solar their incentives aggressively cut back in the summer of 2008 ‘farmer’ wants to build a solar farm on some open land or on when they started to be viewed as too expensive. Spain’s solar the roof she has access too. If the value of the electricity she will be getting from the utility (via sales or Net Metering),Economics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 11 of 19
  • 59. combined with the incentives discussed (excluding SRECs) assurance of long-term agreements, the customers (homes andabove isn’t enough to provide the rate of return the ‘solar businesses) installing solar don’t need to be paid as much forfarmer’ is looking for, the investment won’t happen. If the their SRECs because they know the value is locked, which also‘farmer’ can sell the SRECs to a buyer for enough extra value saves the utilities in the short term, and probably also in the(1-5¢/kWh is common in ‘voluntary’ locations), the total long term, because the risk-premium is eliminated.investment may become attractive, and the ‘farmer’ will invest Maryland has a 2009 ACP of 40¢/kWh which will declinethe money and effort to make it happen, and Voila! – net new over time (see the DSIRE Database for current details).generation happened in part because of the SREC value. Pennsylvania and other states will likely also have similar The second common (and very important) way SREC value is arrangements. There is no guarantee that actual value will becreated is thru the regulatory “compliance” market where state anywhere near the ACP unless the ultimate buyer (the utility)law or voter initiative has required that a certain percentage of agrees to it.electricity in a given geographic or territorial area must come Colorado has an RPS as well, but rather than paying for eachfrom solar sources. Often, the percentage is set to rise over time. SREC as it is produced, the two main utilities, Xcel and BlackFourteen states have Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) with Hills Energy (formerly Aquila) buy 20 years worth of the SRECsuch a requirement. In these states, the utilities must either build output from smaller systems for $1.50/W STC of installedand own solar installations (if allowed), or buy SRECs from capacity (looking more like a rebate) in addition to the regularproducer/owners. Usually, there is an Alternate Compliance $2/W rebate. This equates to an approximate SREC value of 5-Payment (ACP) that sets a maximum on the value of the SREC 7¢/kWh depending on sunlight levels and system performance.value, whereby, if the utility isn’t able to buy SRECs for lessthan the ACP, they can pay the ACP as a penalty for failure to California and several other states have Renewable Portfoliodo so. Standards too, but these RPSs don’t have requirements that any of the energy be sourced from solar, so it is likely that most will New Jersey is the best known of the states where its solar come from wind and other sources, which are currently lessprogram is supported mostly by SREC value. Currently, the expensive. That means that the SREC market in these states isACP in New Jersey is the equivalent of 71.1¢/kWh. The market voluntary (including some speculators buying or trading SRECsin which the NJ utilities can buy SRECs is set up as a bid- on the bet that they will become more valuable if/as theauction market, so supply and demand rule the price of SRECs government and industry take on global warming). Currentat any given moment, with the artificial cap of the ACP. As of voluntary SREC values are estimated to be in the range of 1-June 2009, the auction market in NJ had set the price of SRECs 5¢/kWh, which is not insignificant compared to Net Meteredat 60-65¢/kWh. This value may continue for the short-, mid- or electricity value that is sometimes as low as 6-20¢/kWh.long-term, but there is no assurance of it. The price could alsocollapse if an oversupply of SRECs becomes available, The only way an SREC has any real value though, is to ensuredepending on the rate of installation of solar systems compared that the bundle of legal rights to the greenness it represents hasto the increasing requirements of the NJ RPS. only been sold once to its ultimate consumer for “retirement”, the same way as a publicly traded company can only sell a fixed SREC Policy Discussion: The New Jersey style incentive number of shares of its stock. Within a state RPS complianceusing SRECs is one of the author’s favorites, because it allows market, this is usually done by an administrator who tracks allmarket mechanisms to automatically readjust the incentive the production, sales, and retirements. In voluntary markets,(SREC) level to changes in market conditions. For example, the SRECs should be certified by a certifier such as Green-e (auncapping of the federal ITC provided a lot more federal service of the Center for Resource Solutions) http://www.green-incentive for solar, and so would require less state support and e.org/, which is the nations leading independent consumerwould allow the SREC level to decline, all things being equal. protection program for the sale of renewable energy andSimilarly, the recent rapid decline in solar module prices has greenhouse gas reductions in the retail market. Only then canlowered end-customer costs, again requiring less support to be the consumer be sure she is buying something of value.required in the form of SRECs. The U.S. economy of 2009 is insuch bad shape that the above two have not actually manifested One should take care to consider whether she really wants toin substantially increased solar purchasing and supply of sell the SRECs her system generates. By selling them, she losesSRECs yet, but the Rate of Return on a solar investment in NJ the right to claim she is using any of the clean green energyhas been increasing due to the two events. Eventually, the generated by the system. That right would belong to the newreturn will get good enough, and the economy will get stable SREC owner. The system owner could claim she is a host forenough, that individuals will start to buy systems and put new the generation, but not a user. The distinction is important inSRECs on the market, creating more supply to satisfy an order to prevent double counting of the SRECs, which isinelastic demand, causing SREC values to come down at least important to maintaining their value.somewhat. The missing element in the New Jersey program has beenlong-term contracts whereby solar customers can get anassurance of future SREC value. Without such an agreement, apotentially oversupplied SREC auction market could cause thetraded price to plummet, so customers installing systems needto insist on a risk-premium. This is starting to shift. With theEconomics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 12 of 19
  • 60. HOW IS THE SOLAR PAYOFF PROVEN? after-tax savings of $100. The example would then be Independent tests of the financial viability of solar energy calculated as follows:include:! Rate of Return for comparison to other interest rate based AfterTax $100 $100 $100 investments PreTax = = = = = $100 * 2 = $200 1" TaxRate 1" 50% 1" .50 .50! Payback in a reasonable time! Total Lifecycle Payback! Net increase in property value compared to solar system cost Meaning that $100 after-tax is equivalent to $200 pre-tax at a! Positive cash flow when financing the project ! 50% tax rate. To put it in context of a solar system: if a customer were choosing between investing $15K in a solar All of the analyses and analysis methods presented here apply system that would save them $100/month on her electric billonly to residential scenarios. Different mechanisms, (tax-free), vs. $15K in a taxable investment, the taxableassumptions, and accepted financial and accounting practices investment would need to earn them $200/month so that afterapply to commercial cases, which are not discussed here. For she paid taxes on the $200, she would have $100 left over toexample, commercial analyses must be done on an after-tax pay the electric bill, for the two choices to be consideredbasis, which has important consequences relating to the loss of equivalent. In reality, combined federal and state tax rates arethe electric bill tax deduction a business otherwise would have currently lower than 50%, with an effective rate of 20-40% forenjoyed, and commercial property resale valuation is done using most taxpayers. At these rates, $100 after-tax savings would beCapitalization Rate, rather than the method discussed here. equal to $125-$165 pre-tax equivalent.Future versions of this article may include this material, socheck back later please. Once the value of the savings, maintenance costs and other amounts are properly adjusted to their pre-tax values, they canRATE OF RETURN: be inserted into a 25-year financial timeline (the warranted life Compound Annual Rate of Return on an investment is of most solar electric/PV modules) representing the cash flowsanother term for effective interest rate or yield, which is a way for each year, to calculate the Compound Annual Rate ofof comparing one investment to another. For example, a savings Return. This allows the accurate inclusion of all relevant costaccount might pay 0.5%-1% interest, and the long-term (80 and benefit components.year) Dow Jones Industrial Average of the stock market,assuming dividend reinvestment had earned 8.5% per year The initial capital cost is the only amount that doesn’t get(CAGR) to its height of 13,500 in 2008. At its level of 8,000 in adjusted. That amount is the net system up-front cost (total outJune 2009, the long-term CAGR of the Dow has been 7.5%. of pocket), and is unaffected by the taxation or lack thereof of future savings in the utility bill. Consider it the same as The author chose 10% as the test point for solar, because that principal that is invested anywhere. The principal is not taxedcompares favorably to other long term investment average upon its departure or return.returns from common, readily accessible, higher yieldinginvestments such as stocks and bonds and provides a slight Tax savings and consequences, inverter replacement,premium to compensate for solar’s lack of familiarity to much maintenance, and other significant financial events can beof the public. included at their appropriate places on the timeline. Inflation, escalation, and module degradation are also easily included. For To properly value the savings from a solar system, it should each year, the values can be summed, creating a 25-yearbe noted that solar saves after-tax expense, while most other timeline of net expense or net savings by year. The Internal Rateinvestments earn pre-tax income. In order to compare solar to of Return (IRR) function in most spreadsheets can thenother investments, all investments should be placed on the same calculate the IRR, which is the same as the Compound Annualside of the tax equation. Since most investments are taxable (i.e. (interest) Rate of Return (CARR) for the investment.stocks, savings interest, etc.), and because most people thinkabout their investments on the pre-tax side, it is most One should note that there is a significant and very importantmeaningful to convert solar savings to its taxable equivalent difference between Compound Annual Rate of Return andvalue (i.e. PreTax value). average return or total return divided by the number of years an investment is held. Average return does not factor in AfterTax dollars are worth more to a taxpayer than the same compounding of interest, and may make an investment looknumber of PreTax dollars, because PreTax dollars are subject to more attractive than it really is. This article uses CARR for alltaxation. Therefore, an AfterTax dollar saved (with solar) is items under consideration (solar, stocks, savings, etc).worth more than $1 on a PreTax basis, by an amountproportional to the taxation rate. To make this conversion from The difference becomes more visible the longer the timeAfterTax value to PreTax value, the following equation can be horizon. A brief example: Suppose an investment doubles everyused (where TaxRate is the net total effective income tax rate): year. Its CARR would be 100% because you get 100% increase each year on your investment. No matter how long you hold it, AfterTax its CARR is 100% because you need to compound for the PreTax = number of years it’s held. Alternatively, if you were to look at (1" TaxRate) the “average rate of return”, over 1 year, it would still be 100%. However, if you held it 3 years, your investment would be To illustrate this with an example, let’s assume a Tax Rate of 800% of the original, or a total return of 800%50% (unrealistically high, but easy to illustrate with) and an !Economics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 13 of 19
  • 61. (100%>200%>400%>800%). The average annual return wouldbe 800%/3years-100% or 167%, which looks great, but isn’trepresentative, because it isn’t factoring in the compounding.This faulty method of analysis is highlighted here becauseunfortunately there are several inaccurate (misleading) solaranalyses and sales presentations being given to the public thatuse averaging, rather than compounding. Total Lifecycle Savings is Please see Fig. 14 for example analyses from several states several timesand their Compound Annual Rates of Return. These cases are Initial Cost paid Initial Cost back in 8 yearsfor full service residential system installations, using typicalinstalled system costs on a simple composition shingle roof.Utility & state specific assumptions for the examples are listedin Fig 13. General variables and assumptions are: ! 28% federal tax bracket, corresponding state tax bracket Fig. 12. Simple Payback vs. Total Lifecycle Payback. Total ! Facing south, 22° pitch, simple composition shingle roof by Lifecycle Savings over 25 years is several times the initial cost full service provider, no complications represented by the area up until year 8. Year 15 shows ! Slightly conservative real system performance, no shade diminished savings due to inverter replacement. ! Final Net Cost = total installed system costs - Rebate (if any) - 2009 Fed 30% ITC + $500 Permit + $0 Utility Fee residential long-term investment; it does not properly include ! System maintenance cost is 0.25% of gross system cost per the tax savings and consequences, it does not account for year, adjusted for inflation maintenance or inverter replacement expenses, and it makes it ! 5.0% electric escalation (2.2% in CO) difficult to compare to other investments such as stocks, savings, etc. because of inflation and other factors. ! Module degradation 0.5% per year ! Module PTC/STC Ratio: 89.6%, Inverter Efficiency: 95.0% TOTAL LIFECYCLE PAYBACK: ! Inverter replacement costing $700/kW occurs in year 15 Comparing the savings of a solar electric system over 25 years These analyses were performed using the OnGrid Tool, of operation to its initial cost is a better way of looking at payback, because it more fairly values the savings due to theavailable at http://www.ongrid.net/payback. Other tools are compounding effect of electric rate escalation. Because of thislisted in the Design and Analysis Tools section at the end. effect, the savings in the later years is much greater than thePAYBACK: savings in the first few years. Typical systems give back 1.5 to 3 What about calculating the payback? Payback is a simple but times their initial cost. See Fig. 14 for several examples and Fig.crude tool for comparing investments. Solar is an inflation- 12 for an illustration. One drawback to this analysis is it fails toprotected investment but many others are not. This improves the account for the time value of money. A dollar saved in thepayback for solar (electric rates double every 15 years at 5% future isn’t worth as much as a dollar saved today, so that a totalescalation). To properly calculate the solar payback, it is lifecycle payback isn’t worth quite as much as it might initiallynecessary to add in the rate escalation adjusted savings of each appear. The better methods of comparing solar as an investmentsuccessive year, less the reduction due to module degradation are the Compound Annual Rate of Return, Increase in Propertyand maintenance costs, until payback has been achieved. Value, and Cash Flow.Savings in the latter years are larger than savings in the first INCREASE IN PROPERTY VALUE:years, so the payback is faster than simply dividing the cost by Solar electric systems increase property value by decreasingthe savings. See Fig. 12 for an illustration. utility operating costs. According to the Appraisal Journal Payback analysis on an after-tax basis does not reflect the true (Nevin, Rick et al, “Evidence of Rational Market Valuations forvalue of the saved utility expense, because after-tax savings are Home Energy Efficiency,” Oct 1998 (available at variousworth more on a pre-tax basis. However, trying to do payback locations on-line, including atusing the pre-tax value gives an unrealistically optimistic view http://www.icfi.com/Markets/Community_Development/doc_filof when “payback” has occurred. The examples in Fig. 11 show es/apj1098.pdf), a home’s value is increased by $20,000 forhow long paybacks on other investments really are in every $1,000 reduction in annual operating costs from energycomparison to solar, when taken on an after-tax basis. efficiency. There are numerous other flaws in using payback for a Net Interest Earned or After-Tax After-Tax Payback / Time-to- Investment Type Investment Net Electric Bill Value the Value the Doubling including Amount Savings First Year Eighth Year taxes & inflation Savings $30,000 $300 (at 1% rate) $196 $196 153 years Stocks $30,000 $2,400 (at 8% rate) $1,567 $1,567 19.1 years Solar – CA PG&E 5.5 kW $30,000 $2,321 (1st year) $2,321 $3,176 10.4 years Fig. 11. Investment Payback Comparisons: Solar savings grow due to escalation (4.5% net w/ degradation). Assumed 28% federal & 9.3% state tax rates play a big role in the different outcomes. Stocks & savings are more liquid, but it’s clear why Wall Street and banks don’t talk “Payback”.Economics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 14 of 19
  • 62. AC kWh Production Installed Cost per Staring/Ending Rate Utility Insolation per rated kW per rated Watt Incentives Schedule, Peak % year (~October 2008) $2.40/W Rebate (net) AZ - APS Phoenix 1660 / STC kW $8.25 STC E-12 / ET-2, 50% 25% State Tax Credit CA - PG&E San Francisco 1630 / CEC kW E1XB / E6XB, 35% $1.55/W Rebate 3kW: $9.50 CEC D-10-Basic / CA - SCE Los Angeles 1675 / CEC kW 6kW: $9.25 CEC $1.90/W Rebate TOU-D-1, 36% 9kW: $9.00 CEC DR-Coastal-Basic / CA - SDG&E San Diego 1700 / CEC kW $1.55/W Rebate DR-SES, 28% CO - Xcel Boulder 1398 / STC kW $8.25 STC R $3.50/W Rebate & SREC CT - UI Hartford 1262 / PTC kW $8.75 PTC R / RT, 45% $1.75/W Rebate FL – FPL Miami 1345 / ST kW $8.25 STC RS-1 $4/W Rebate HI - HECO Honolulu 1460 / STC kW $8.25 STC Res 35% State Tax Credit $1.20/W Rebate (net), MD – BGE Baltimore 1236 / STC kW $8.25 STC R / RL-2, 65% SRECs: 10¢/5yrs, 5¢/10yrs NC - Progress Raleigh 1260 / STC kW $8.25 STC RES / R-TOUD, 60% 35% State Tax Credit SRECs: 48¢/1yr, 30¢/12yrs, NJ - JCP&L Newark 1140 / STC kW $8.25 STC RS / RT, 58% 10¢/12yrs; $1.55/W Rebate Rate I / Rate II TOU, $2.81/W Rebate (net) NY - ConEd New York City 1178 / STC kW $8.25 STC 75% 25% State Tax Credit $2.25/W Rebate, PA – PPL Philadelphia 1217 / STC kW $8.25 STC RS / RTD R, 70% SRECs: 10¢/5yrs, 5¢/10yrsFig. 13. Utility specific residential assumptions. Module prices have dropped since October 2008, and selling prices are declining,but still in a state of flux. For now, the analyses assume 10/2008 pricing. Before Solar Size & Net Cost Results, Savings, and Benefits Cumulative Net Monthly Cash Flow Final Net Appraisal kWh Savings Pre- PV System Cost w/ Lifecycle Years Pre-Tax Compared to 8% 30-yr Equity / Usage Over First Loan Annual Utility Solar Size & Tax Payback To Annual Resale per 25 Years Savings Bill Rating Benefits Ratio Payback Return In First In Fifth Increase in Month (including & Rebate Year Year First Year inflation)AZ - APS $77 800 5 kW STC $18K $22K 1.2x 22.2 6.6% $-31/mo $-38/mo $539 $11KCA - PG&E $74 550 3 kW CEC $17K $28K 1.7x 18.6 10.0% $-11/mo $-15/mo $671 $13KCA - PG&E $258 1100 6 kW CEC $33K $120K 3.6x 9.7 19.5% $100/mo $123/mo $2,761 $55KCA - PG&E $499 1650 9 kW CEC $48K $234K 4.9x 7.8 24.6% $259/mo $320/mo $5,355 $107KCA - SCE $85 550 3 kW CEC $16K $36K 2.2x 15.5 12.9% $6/mo $6/mo $835 $17KCA - SCE $414 1650 9 kW CEC $45K $193K 4.3x 8.5 22.1% $193/mo $238/mo $4,446 $89KCA - SDG&E $97 550 3 kW CEC $17K $38K 2.2x 15.4 12.9% $6/mo $7/mo $877 $18KCA - SDG&E $455 1650 9 kW CEC $47K $206K 4.4x 8.4 22.4% $207/mo $255/mo $4,722 $94KCO - Xcel $72 800 5 kW STC $17K $13K 0.7x 31.9 3.1% $-47/mo $-46/mo $521 $10KCT - UI $183 800 5 kW PTC $25K $57K 2.3x 15.2 11.9% $-20/mo $1/mo $1,333 $27KFL – FPL $89 800 5 kW STC $15K $24K 1.6x 19.3 7.5% $-35/mo $-25/mo $591 $12KGA - GaPwr $88 800 5 kW STC $21K $20K 0.9x 27.0 6.9% $-80/mo $-67/mo $493 $10KHI - HECO $164 800 5 kW STC $25K $62K 2.5x 13.2 15.1% $-10/mo $16/mo $1,442 $29KMD – BGE $131 800 5 kW STC $25K $39K 1.6x 18.4 9.3% $-25/mo $-30/mo $1,262 $17KNC-Progress $80 800 5 kW STC $21K $25K 1.2x 23.2 9.6% $-66/mo $-51/mo $601 $12KNJ - JCP&L $143 800 5 kW STC $24K $66K 2.8x 9.3 19.4% $71/mo $85/mo $2,947 $22KNY – ConEd $134 800 5 kW STC $16K $40K 2.6x 12.4 16.5% $-2/mo $16/mo $956 $19KPA – PPL $95 800 5 kW STC $21K $32K 1.5x 18.9 8.5% $-22/mo $-30/mo $1,100 $14KFig. 14. Example residential cases with their net costs and financial benefits.Economics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 15 of 19
  • 63. add more than 215% of their value upon resale (Alfano, Sal, “2003 Cost vs. Value Report”, Remodeling Online – www.remodeling.hw.net downloaded March 5, 2004). Other types of remodels like kitchens and bathrooms had similar results related to geography. So it makes sense that in certain geographies where the sun shines brightly and the electric rates are high, solar would return more than its installed cost, while in other states with less sun and lower rates, the return might be much lower, with a national average comparable to other types of remodel. Fig. 16 lists projected resale value of various solar systems, compared with nationwide averages for some other home improvements. The increase in property value is currently theoretical. A very high fraction of the grid-tied solar electric systems in California were installed since the state’s Power Crisis and the Fig. 15. Resale value increases over time because savings get Deregulation fiasco in 2001. Most of these homes have not been larger each year. Total remaining lifetime savings in the sold and there are no broad studies of comparable resale values system declines annually, putting a limit on the increase in available. However, some evidence is beginning to emerge that resale value after year 11. there are significant jumps in resale value being realized by The rationale is that the money from the reduction in some solar home sellers.operating costs can be spent on a larger mortgage with no net It is also interesting to note that PV systems will appreciatechange in monthly cost of ownership. Nevin states that average over time, rather than depreciate as they age. The appreciationhistoric mortgage costs have an after-tax effective interest rate comes from the increasing annual savings the system will yieldof about 5%. If $1,000 of reduced operating costs is put towards as electric rates and bill savings rise. All the calculations in thisdebt service at 5%, it can support an additional $20,000 of debt. article assume electric rate escalation will be 5%. If so, the PVTo the borrower, total monthly cost of home ownership is system will save 5% more value each successive year, and thusidentical. Instead of paying the utility, the homeowner (or future gain from the 20:1 multiplier effect. The resale value will thenhomeowner) pays the bank, but her total cost doesn’t change. increase 5% per year compounded, less 0.5% moduleSince the Nevin article is from 1998, is it dated? No more than degradation.2+2=4 is dated - the rationale is mathematical, not based onmarket whims, so it is timeless. This cannot continue forever, as the increase in resale value runs into the second limit, which relates to the remaining life Please see the column labeled “Appraisal Equity Increase” in left in the system. For these analyses, the system is assumed toFig. 14 for examples of the increase in home value. In some be worthless at the end of 25 years. This is probably verycases, a solar system can increase home value by more than its conservative, since the panels are warranted to be working atcost to install. This effectively reduces the payback period to 0 least 80% of their new performance. So if the system isyears if the owner chose or needed to sell the property worthless at the end of 25 years, the only value the system hasimmediately. It could even lead to a profit on resale. as it nears that time, are the remaining savings it can generate th There are two limits to the increase in resale value over before the end of the 25 year. Fig. 15 shows both thesystem net installed cost. First, why should a homeowner pay in increasing value due to increasing annual savings and thetotal more for a home with a solar system, when she could buy a remaining value limitation that takes over at approximately yearnon-solar home, and solarize it for less money? Yet this 11. If the system does have additional resale value, so much thehappens with other remodels. Decks, on average across the better.nation, return 104% of their cost upon resale. However, in Still, the skeptical homebuyer might question the abovecertain markets like St. Louis, San Francisco, and Boston, decks assertions in light of the lack of hard evidence. Perhaps the best evidence to present would be a stack of old bills showing usage Investment and cost before solar, and a stack of new bills showing a Resale Home Improvement Amount / % substantial savings. The question might be posed, “What are a Value Type Net System Return continuous, if not growing, stream of these savings worth to the Increase Cost prospective buyer?” That sort of evidence can’t easily be CA PG&E Solar 3 kW $17K $13K 76% ignored. Of course, other factors will weigh heavily in the CA PG&E Solar 6 kW $33K $55K 167% value. How attractive is the home? A tidy, attractive installation CA PG&E Solar 9 kW $48K $107K 223% should add all of the value shown above, but like a spa, some Deck Addition $6.3K $6.7K 104% prospective buyers may not care or value it, while others may Bathroom Remodel $10.1K $9.1K 89% love it. Window Replacement $9.6K $8.2K 85% Kitchen Remodel $44K $33K 75% Fig. 16. Resale value comparison of various home improvements.Economics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 16 of 19
  • 64. Utility Bill w/o Solar at 5% escalation Accumulated 8% Loan (net cost), New Savings Smaller Bill, & Maintenance Fig. 18. Accumulated net savings of solar system financed over 20 years, including all costs, thus showing pure cash profit accumulated over time with no additional expense. has 2 parts: principal and interest. As the balance is paid down, the interest portion of each successive payment is reduced, so the tax deduction benefit is also reduced. In after-tax terms, the loan is least expensive in the first year when the borrower is Net Annual enjoying the maximum tax deduction for interest paid. Savings The difference between the two lines in the top of Fig. 17 is the amount the scenario is cash-positive (or cash-negative) for the customer, and is reflected in the lower graphic, which showsFig. 17. Effect of a solar system financed at a fixed 8% interest “Net Annual Savings” by having purchased a solar system withrate over 20 years showing a cash-positive result from the a loan (put no money down). In this case, the savings arefirst day of ownership, including maintenance costs and the substantial even before the loan is paid off in the 20th year, andinverter replacement at year 15. gets even better after that. The Net Annual Savings can be accumulated as shown in Fig. 18 to show how much extra cashCASH FLOW WHEN FINANCING: a purchaser will have in her pocket before the inverter needs to Financing a solar system makes the purchase achievable to be replaced in year 15, or before the loan is paid off in year 20,more consumers. If the situation is right, the savings on the or before the equipment is out of warranty in year 25.electric bill can more than compensate for the cost of the loanand maintenance, making it a cash-positive maneuver. That is, The uncapping of the residential federal ITC has made it morecompared to the occupant’s current cost of energy (her current difficult to figure out how much a customer should borrow. Theelectric bill), going solar but paying for it entirely with a loan problem is that the ITC is a significant incentive, but it isn’t(no money down) can actually be less expensive on a monthly received until the customer files her taxes, which can be a yearbasis. or more after the system needs to be paid for. Electric rates and electric bills are subject to electric rate In what one might call the “Optimistic Loan” scenario, theescalation, as can be seen in the top graphic in Fig. 17, where customer would borrow the net cost after all incentivesthe cost of energy increases steadily over the years, doubling (including the ITC) have been received. This would produce theapproximately every 15 years. While interest rates might vary lowest loan payments, and have the best chance of being cash-depending on the loan type, loans are not subject to inflation or positive from the start, making the salesperson happy. However,rate escalation, so the loan payments do not increase the customer would need to have the cash to cover the ITCcontinuously. This means that the difference between what the amount or get a bridge loan until the ITC is received because ofelectric bill will become and what the loan & maintenance costs the optimistically low loan & payments.will become continues to move in the customer’s favor. Even if In an “Inefficient Loan” scenario, the customer would borrowa customer didn’t start out cash-positive in the first year, she the net cost after all other incentives, except the ITC. This willmay become cash positive after a few years. allow them to acquire the system with no money down. In the top graphic of Fig. 17, the lower line labeled “8% Loan However it will also result in a lot of cash on hand once the ITC(net cost), New Smaller Bill, & Maintenance” represents all the is received, which she is paying interest on, which is expensivenew costs compared to the old Utility Bill cost. While the loan and not very efficient. It is also less likely to be cash-positive,rate is fixed at 8% and the monthly loan payments are steady, which will be a disadvantage for the salesperson.there are 3 components to this new set of costs that do increase The solution is what OnGrid Solar calls “Smart Financing”over time: 1. The new maintenance cost will rise with inflation. where the customer uses a “line of credit” financing source that2. The new small electric bill will rise with electric rate she can borrow from and repay without pre-payment penalty.escalation. 3. In fixed amortization loans, each loan payment Assuming the ITC will be received in a year, and that she canEconomics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 17 of 19
  • 65. apply it to the principal of the loan at that time, one can partnership with cities, whereby a citizen property owner cancalculate the necessary loan payment that allows them to pay off receive a loan for a solar system and have it collateralized andthe loan in the desired number of years including interest. The paid back on her property tax bill. The program was pioneeredcalculation is complex, and is not a standard function in most in Berkeley, California, and is now available in several citiesspreadsheets, but can be done. The resulting loan payment will thanks to AB811, the “Community Financing” bill.be somewhere between the Inefficient Loan and the Optimistic The loans are obligations to the city, the interest is taxLoan, typically tending to be pretty close to, but slightly more deductible, and the property tax bill shows the itemization of theexpensive than the Optimistic Loan. loan amount, the principal and interest. The interest rate is set Results of Smart Financing can be seen in Fig. 17. A subtle by the city and their partner bank and is generally at marketfeature of it is the slight dip in savings in the 2nd year. In the 1st rates. However, even if the financing was at what might beyear the loan principal is very high because it includes the ITC considered a subsidized level, because of the ARRA of 2009,amount causing the interest cost to be quite high. This allows there is no longer any negative interaction with the ITC (therefor a large 1st year tax deduction benefit, even though the loan used to be a tax rule that allowed one but not both of an ITC orpayments are fixed and steady. Once the ITC is received and subsidized energy financing to be enjoyed). The loans areapplied to reduce the principal, the interest is reduced, so the tax generally transferable to a future buyer of the property if she isdeduction shrinks, effectively raising the cost of the loan willing to agree to assume the loan payments.compared to the fixed loan payments. These loans pose little risk to the city and their funding Refer to Fig. 14 for several examples showing the initial and partner, because property taxes are considered to be in “1st5th year monthly cash flow assuming 100% Smart Financing of position” to get paid in cased of a foreclosure. This has caused aa solar system using a 30-year loan. Because of the 2nd year dip, controversy in the banking community because this now placesthe 5th year monthly cash flow isn’t always better than the 1st more risk on the holder of the 1st mortgage (who is in 2ndyear’s, but is a basis for continuous improvements in cash flow position), and the lawsuits have started. The mortgagees insistgoing forward. Note, we use the 5th year because most these loans be in at least 3rd position to protect their mortgages.depreciation (in commercial systems) and PBI benefits (both of Depending on how they are structured, that may work for thewhich are applied to loan principal in the same way as the ITC) cities. Stay tuned, it’s developing as this is written.have been received and included by then. There are also two commercial financing products being Sources of financing funds can include: applied to residential situations: Power Purchase Agreements ! Unsecured (PPAs) and leases. PPAs are the agreement for one party to sell ! Home equity power to another at agreed upon terms. The sale is for kWh of ! Community Financing energy only. The leases for solar are rentals, where a customer ! Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) rents (leases) a solar system from another party. In both ! Leases products, the parties owning the systems have large investors who have money to finance systems and who can use both the Unsecured financing can include credit cards or other types of ITC and depreciation.unsecured loans. These are generally a terrible idea for any kindof long term financing because they usually have high interest In the typical PPA scenario, the site occupant agrees to a PPArates and the interest is not tax deductible. It may be reasonable for electricity kWh at a certain price and in exchange allows ato consider them to temporarily finance the rebate or tax credit solar system to be placed on her roof. In residential applicationsuntil it is received, however, it requires discipline to ensure the of a PPA, the homeowner usually pays a deposit of anywhereloan is paid off as soon as the incentive is received. from $2,000 to 25% to 50% of the cost of the system in addition st to the price she will pay for the electricity. Naturally, the more Home equity sources of funding can include 1 mortgage nd she puts down as a deposit, the lower the price of the electricity.refinances, 2 mortgages, Home Equity Loans, and Home The contract lengths are typically 15-20 years, and there may beEquity Lines of Credit (HELOCs). In general, home equity a buyout cost at the end if the homeowner wishes to purchase itborrowing is tax deductible, has the best unsubsidized interest at that time, or she may have to pay a removal fee if she doesn’t.rates, and has the longest repayment terms, all of which allow The price of electricity may be fixed by the agreement, or itfor lowest monthly costs. However, the decline in real estate may have an escalator, causing it to get more expensive overvalues have hurt Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratios for most time. There is usually a guaranteed minimum performance, buthomeowners, and the tight credit market in 2009 have put strict the customer must purchase any extra electricity, whether shelimits on LTV ratios, credit scores, and income requirements, wants it or not.making use of home equity difficult. Only the Line of Credit islikely to work with Smart Financing. Other loans tend to be less A typical residential solar lease is similar, in that there is oftenflexible on borrowing and repayment term. Attractive FHA a deposit paid and a long-term agreement to rent a system forEnergy Efficient Mortgages (EEMs) may be available from the placement on the customer’s roof. The monthly rent mayU.S. Dept of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) at: include an escalator, increasing costs over time, and mayhttp://www.hud.gov/offices/hsg/sfh/eem/energy-r.cfm. include a buyout clause and termination costs. The buyout clause must not allow the system to be purchased for less than A new idea and source of funds are local loan programs called Fair Market Value (FMV) at the end of the term, and that the“Community Financing” developed by funding sources in FMV must be determined at the end of the term, otherwise theEconomics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 18 of 19
  • 66. lease will fail to satisfy IRS tax rules. The system usually comes o Property Tax Assessments as a Finance Vehicle forwith a performance guarantee, and the homeowner enjoys any Residential PV Installations: …extra production at no extra charge. o Exploring the Economic Value of EPAct 2005s PV Tax Credits Things a customer should watch out for regarding leases & ! SEIA “Guide to Federal Tax Incentives for Solar Energy”PPAs: 1. High escalators in the contracts and their compounding http://www.seia.org, Solar Energy Industries Associationnature. These vehicles can be good hedges against future rate ! Utility Tariff and Rate Tables (see desired utility’s website) –inflation, but a customer should be cautious about overpaying great for insomniafor that hedge. Rates may not rise fast in the future for anynumber of reasons, and are certainly not likely to rise much DESIGN & ANALYSIS TOOLS:faster than 6% per year over the long term. Currently, state or ! OnGrid Tool, which incorporates all of the elements of thisfederal government does not regulate these products, so there is paper, plus up-to-date rates and incentives, to allow the usera lot of risk of customers agreeing to very expensive terms over to design and analyze PV systems at a high level. It alsothe long term. 2. Large deposits without performance guarantees produces proposals and sales documentation:and without clarity in the contract on what happens to the http://www.ongrid.net/paybacksystem in the event of the provider’s bankruptcy. 3. Large ! Clean Power Estimator:buyout charges or removal costs at the end of the term. http://www.consumerenergycenter.org/renewables/estimator. ! PVWatts: http://www.nrel.gov/rredc/pvwatts Leases and PPAs with $0 deposits are easy to understand and ! PVSyst: http://www.pvsyst.comsell if the monthly costs or $/kWh are less than the customer’s ! RETscreen: http://www.retscreen.netcurrent costs. Otherwise the customer must figure out how soon ! PV Design Pro: http://www.mauisolarsoftware.comthe deposit amount will be recovered. ! QuickQuotes: clean-power.com/quickquotes/products.aspx Leases and PPAs can be attractive to customers who have no ! CPF Tools: http://www.cpftools.comother way of financing a system, or who can’t use the ITC. But ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:if she has her own cash, or can get her own financing, she can Thank you to the following that have provided invaluableusually do better and keep more of the benefits for herself, insights knowledge, corrections, and review:rather than sharing them with the financing party and the Michael Bishop, OnGrid Solarprovider. Customer shouldn’t be taken in by claims that these Chad Blanchardproducts are a lot less expensive because of the depreciation – Mark Bolinger, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL)effectively the depreciation offsets the taxability of the revenue Keith Martin & John Marciano, Chadbourne & Parke LLPreceived the provider. These deals are currently a goldmine to Ryan Wiser, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL)developers and providers, but are just “ok” for the consumer,and will be until more competition comes along. !Copyright 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. This information changes periodically. The author maintains anCONCLUSION: updated version of this article at: It is important to compare the solar investment to other http://www.ongrid.net/papers/PaybackOnSolarSERG.pdf. Forinvestments on an even basis. Rigorous treatment and critical more info on solar payback, analysis tools, upcoming classes,analyses from several angles including Compound Annual Rate and other papers and articles, see http://www.ongrid.net.of Return, Cash Flow, and Resale Value need to be consideredto do a fair assessment. Andy Black is a Solar Financial Analyst and CEO of OnGrid Solar, creator of the OnGrid Tool, and educator on the Solar will make economic sense for many, but only a hard financial aspects of solar electric systems. He is a formerlook at the numbers will tell. The reader is encouraged to check NABCEP Certified PV Installer, is on the Advisory Board of theit out. Run the numbers, get evaluations and proposals from at NorCal Solar Association, and is a recent past board member ofleast 3 solar providers, and take them to a CPA to check them the American Solar Energy Society. He can be contacted atout. That way the smile on your wallet can be as big as the (408) 428-0808x1 or andy@ongrid.net for questions about thesmile on your face! payback on solar.SUGGESTED ADDITIONAL READING:! OnGrid Solar’s papers, publications, and presentation slides: http://www.ongrid.net/papers! “A Guide To Photovoltaic (PV) System Design And Installation” http://www.energy.ca.gov/reports/2001-09- 04_500-01-020.PDF, California Energy Commission! Bolinger, Wiser, et al, LBL papers and presentations at: http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/emp/re-pubs.html, particularly: o Shaking Up the Residential PV Market: … o The Impact of Retail Rate Structures on the Economics of Commercial Photovoltaic Systems in California And at: http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/emp/cases/EMP_case.htmlEconomics of Solar Electric Systems ! 2009, Andy Black. All rights reserved. July 2009 - 19 of 19
  • 67. Andy Black, CEO Solar Financial Consultant (408) 428-0808 andy@ongrid.net www.ongrid.net Sell PV Systems More EffectivelyEconomics is the strongest driver in selling PV systems.Residential & Commercial PV systems can have very good economics. Example Residential Results: Final Net Pre- kWh System Pre-Tax Appraisal Lifecycle System Cost w/ Tax Solar per Gross Annual Equity Payback AC Size Benefits & Bill Month Cost Return Increase Ratio Rebate $100 665 3.0 kW $28K $20K 11.4% $20K 221% $254 1150 6.0 kW $55K $39K 15.3% $57K 314% $457 1700 9.0 kW $81K $58K 18.1% $102K 383%Prove it to your customers with independent 3rd party resources toboost your credibility. The OnGrid Solar website has: Upcoming Classes: www.ongrid.net/classes.html Payback, Economics & Financing of Solar Systems: Understand the variables and ways to maximize the economics, then learn 5 ways to prove the financial results for Residential, Commercial & Non-Profit customers. The Commercial class includes Lease & PPA financing. Sales & Marketing for PV Systems: Learn OnGrid’s secrets to success in building a powerful and effective sales organization & marketing strategies for residential customers. Articles & Papers: www.ongrid.net/papers Use OnGrid published and peer-reviewed articles to enhance your credibility with customers, and help them understand for themselves why solar is attractive (Please use articles unedited and including attribution. Contact OnGrid at 408 428 0808 if you’d like to use excerpts). Tools: www.ongrid.net/payback The OnGrid Solar Financial Analysis & Sales Tool is a powerful design, quoting, proposal, and forms tool that will save you tremendous time and improve your closing ratio, helping you make more sales and money with less time and effort. Try a FREE demo and see examples of the output at: www.ongrid.net/payback ! 2008 OnGrid Solar 1.6.08
  • 68. The OnGrid Solar Financial Analysis & Sales Tool Simplify Solar Sales: (866) 966-5577 Qualify and Close in www.ongrid.net Less Than a Day! Show Your Customers Simplify Your Sales! Their internal rate of return ! Identify and screen hot leads (solar vs. stock market or interest-based investment) (guides salespeople through the entire sales process)! Their cash flow for financed systems ! Size PV systems accurately (positive and increasing over time) (time of use, shading, tilt, orientation, incentives and more)! System’s total lifecycle payback and savings ! Price systems considering all factors (show how much they save over time) (e.g., tile roof, custom mounting, etc.)! Their increased resale value ! Create proposals, price quotes quickly, onsite (often is more than system cost & increases over time) (one button form generation, documentation, includes CSI) Use customer data to paint them a picture. Example Output*: Cash Flow: Cash Flow: Annual Costs: Solar with Loan vs. No Solar Net Annual Savings When Financed Annual Savings Utility Bill w/o Solar at 5% rate escalation Loan cost, Maintenance, Inverter Net Annual Replacement, & new small electric bill Savings Lifecycle Payback: Resale: Annual Savings Before & After Payback Resale Value Over Time Resale Value Lifetime savings are typically 2-3.5 times system cost Payback Resale Value increases due to increasing annual savings *See website for detailed description and comprehensive list of customizable outputs and displays. 9:00 a.m. 9:30 a.m. 11:00 a.m. 12:00 p.m. 12:30 p.m. 1:00 p.m. 1:30 p.m. Receive Qualify, Site Update Present Bid, Close Turn in Incoming Gather Data, Visit Estimate Contract & the Closed Sales Call Email Print All Docs Docs Sale Sale Estimate (on site) Example Sales Call FREE Demo / Examples: www.ongrid.net/payback ! 2008 OnGrid Solar
  • 69. The OnGrid Solar Financial Analysis & Sales Tool for Commercial & Residential PV Sales A Time-Saving, (866) 966-5577 Comprehensive Tool for Solar Sales www.ongrid.net Helps Create & Close More Sales Calculates TOU Value with Shading Proves Payback for the Customer Prepares Rebate & Utility Docs Easily The OnGrid Solar Sales Tool Helps Commercial & Residential Salespeople: (See www.ongrid.net for comprehensive lists of all details and options) Perform Multiple Solar FinancialIdentify and Screen Hot Leads, Analyses, option to generate a Develop Accurate Price Quotes, guide them successfully thru Variety Of Proposals including all material, the entire sales process regulatory and job-site factors Fill out Closing Sales Paperwork and Documents (including CSI) with the touch of a button Size PV systems based on customer needs, incentive programs and site data Solar Pathfinder ® Upload shading device data for SunEye ® accurate Time-of-Use value analysis Demonstrate the financial benefits of a solar electric system to your customer with customized calculations. Tailor and brand your printouts. Use them for direct presentations as your sales materials. ! PV System Size & Production ! Financing & Cash Flow ! Current & Future Electric Bills ! Resale Calculations & Graphics ! Cost, Rebate & Tax breakdowns ! Rate of Return CalculationsThe OnGrid Tool is offered on a subscription basis and is updated frequently with current Rate Schedules,Incentive, Tax and Product information, and periodically with new tool features and benefits. Download thefree demo. Then, contact Andy Black at andy@ongrid.net or (866) 966-5577 to start closing more sales. (866) 966-5577 FREE Demo / Examples: www.ongrid.net/payback ! 2008 OnGrid Solar Net Annual Savings
  • 70. Andy Black OnGrid Solar Feedback for Solar Financial Analyst Sales, Marketing & Economics Classes (408) 428 0808 andy@ongrid.netPlease Rate the Following: Excellent Very Good Good Fair PoorInstructor’s knowledge of the subject matter? ! ! ! ! ! Comments: ___________________________________________________________________Instructor’s ability to communicate effectively with the class? ! ! ! ! ! Comments: ___________________________________________________________________Effectiveness of the handout materials & overhead slides? ! ! ! ! ! Comments: ___________________________________________________________________Relevance of the subject matter? ! ! ! ! ! Comments: ___________________________________________________________________Overall rating of this instructor’s part of the class? ! ! ! ! ! Comments: ___________________________________________________________________ Too Short Just Right Too LongGive the topic, this workshop was: ! ! ! Comments: ___________________________________________________________________ Introductory Intermediate AdvancedIn your opinion, this workshop was? ! ! ! Comments: ___________________________________________________________________ Yes NoWould you recommend this workshop to others? ! ! Comments: ___________________________________________________________________How would you improve this workshop? ___________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________What did you like LEAST about this class? ___________________________________________________________________________What did you like MOST about this class? ___________________________________________________________________________Please share any additional comments: ___________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________Your Name (optional):__________________________ May we quote you? YES NO
  • 71. Andy Black Acronyms Used In Sales, Marketing & OnGrid Solar Solar Financial Analyst Economics Classes (408) 428 0808 andy@ongrid.netAC: Alternating Current (standard AC wall power) kWh: kilowatt-hourACP: Alternative Compliance Payment LADWP: Los Angeles Department of Water & PowerACEEE: American Council for an Energy Efficient LBL: Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Economy: www.aceee.org LTV: Loan-To-ValueAMT: Alternative Minimum Tax MACRS: Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery SystemARRA: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act NABCEP: North American Board of Certified EnergyASES: American Solar Energy Society PractitionersCA: California NCSC: North Carolina Solar CenterCAD: Computer Aided Design NESEA: North-East Sustainable Energy AssociationCalSEIA: California Solar Energy Industries Assn NJCEP: New Jersey Clean Energy PartnershipCAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate NLP: Neuro-Linguistic ProgrammingCARR: Compound Annual Rate of Return NOL: Net Operating LossCCSE: California Center for Sustainable Energy NOx: Nitrous OxidesCEC AC: The California Energy Commission AC NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (Alternating Current) Power Rating NSHP: New Solar Homes PartnershipCEC: California Energy Commission PACE: Property Assessed Clean EnergyCEO: Chief Executive Officer PBI: Performance Based IncentiveCFO: Chief Financial Officer PEC: PG&E’s Pacific Energy CenterCHEERS: California Home Energy Efficiency Rating PG&E: Pacific Gas & Electric System PPA: Power Purchase AgreementCL&P: Connecticut Light & Power PSE&G: Public Service Electric & Gas (NJ)COO: Chief Operating Officer PTC: PVUSA Test ConditionsCO2: Carbon Dioxide PUC: See CPUCCoSEIA: Colorado Solar Energy Industries Assn PURPA: Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978CPI-U: Consumer Price Index-Urban PV: Photovoltaics (Solar Electricity)CPUC: California Public Utilities Commission PVUSA: PV for Utility Scale ApplicationsCRES: Colorado Renewable Energy Society QF: Qualifying FacilityCRM: Customer Relationship Management REC: Renewable Energy Certificate/CreditCSI: California Solar Initiative ROI: Return On InvestmentDC: Direct Current (what comes out of PV modules) ROR: Rate of ReturnDER: Distributed Energy Resource/Renewable RPS: Renewable Portfolio StandardDGR: Distributed Generation Resource SB1: CA Senate Bill 1, the law that created the CSIDOE: Department of Energy (U.S.) SCE: Southern California EdisonDSIRE: Database for State Incentives for Renewable SDG&E: San Diego Gas & Electric Energy: www.dsireusa.org SDREO: San Diego Regional Energy Office (now calledDWR: Department of Water Resources CCSE)EPBB: Expected Performance Based Buydown SEI: Solar Energy InternationalEEM: Energy Efficient Mortgage SEIA: Solar Energy Industries AssociationEIA: Energy Information Administration (of DOE) SLI: Solar Living InstituteEPBI: Expected Performance Based Incentive SMUD: Sacramento Municipal Utility DistrictFASB: Financial Accounting Standards Board SOx: Sulfur OxidesFICA: Social Security Payroll Tax S-REC, sREC: Solar Renewable Energy CertificateFMV: Fair Market Value STC DC: Standard Test Conditions DC (Direct Current)FIT: Feed-In Tariff ratingHELOC: Home Equity Line of Credit STC: Standard Test ConditionsHERS: Home Energy Rating System SVP: Silicon Valley PowerIDR: Interval Data Recording (meter) SWOT: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, ThreatsIID: Imperial Irrigation District TOD: Time Of DayIRC: Internal Revenue Code TOU: Time Of UseIRR: Internal Rate of Return TRC: Tradable Renewable Certificate (= sREC = REC =IRS: Internal Revenue Service Green Tag)ISO: Independent System Operator UI: United Illuminating Co. (CT)ITC: Investment Tax Credit URG: Utility Retained GenerationJCP&L: Jersey Central Power & Light WIIFM: What’s In It For Me