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Canada’s Natural Gas & Oil
Resources on a Global Stage

Vancouver Board of Trade
November 5, 2013

1

#233082
Enabling Responsible Development

2
Canadian Crude Oil

Source: Cenovus
Global Crude Oil Reserves by
Country

Oil Sands

141
102

100

92

80
48

Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec. 2012

4

Russia

...
Canadian Crude Oil Production Forecast

5
2012 Canada and U.S. Demand for Crude Oil by
Source
Thousand Barrels per Day

6
Changing Global Oil Import Needs
Net oil imports in the New Policies Scenario
14
12
10

mm
d
/
b

8

2005
2011

6

2020

4...
Access to Markets – Pipeline Expansions in
Development
WCSB Takeaway vs Supply Forecast

9
Canadian
Natural Gas

10
North American Unconventional Gas Resources

11
Current Disposition of W. Canada’s Natural Gas Production (2012)

TransCanada
Alberta (NGTL)

Westcoast
ANG/
Foothills
Nor...
Natural Gas – Market Opportunities
●
●
●
●

LNG for export
Oil Sands growth
Gas-fired power and cogeneration
Vehicles – CN...
Imports to Asian Economies with Growing Natural
Gas Requirements (Bcf/d)
50
45
40

2
h of
t
row
G

35

6
or 1
Bcfd
7

7%

...
Canadian LNG export projects in development
●

●

●

●

●
●

●

●

●

Kitimat LNG (Chevron, Apache)

1.4 Bcf/d

Permits ...
Canada’s Export Opportunity
● Ports of Kitimat and Prince
Rupert are closer to Asia
than any other North
American port
 8...
Canadian Production – Market Constrained Case
and New Market Opportunity Case
Market
Constrained
Case

Eastern Canada
CBM
...
B. C. Production –– Market Constrained Case and
New Market Opportunity Case

Market
Constrained
Case

New Market
Opportuni...
Safe,
Environmentally
Responsible

● Production
 GHG emissions reductions
 Water – oil & natural gas
 Land & wildlife
●...
Jobs and
Economic Benefits
What’s in it for us?
Investment in B.C.’s natural gas sector
●
●
●
●

$5.2 billion invested in 2012
$6.7 billion invested in 2011
$82 billion i...
BC Benefits

Watson Gloves

23

Ideal Welders

Wright’s Food
Service

Northern Lights
College
Direct Suppliers in British Columbia

Current survey shows just under 400 companies
Being Part of the Discussion

@oilgascanada
www.facebook.com/OilGasCanada
25
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Vancouver board of trade oil & gas markets

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  • Energy Supply and Security
    Global scale supply and investment
    Access to Markets
    Access to Global Prices and Markets
    Environmental Performance
    Demonstrate commitment and improvements
    Economic Benefits
    Across Canada
    What does it mean to me?
  • This chart shows the growing international markets that Canadian producers would like to serve. Significant growth in net imports is anticipated for China and India; of around 12 million bpd.
    Although the US has declining import needs Canada can still increase its exports to this market if imports from other countries are displaced
    Even so this chart clearly shows why Canadian producers are looking to serve markets beyond the traditional north American markets we serve today.
  • Here is more detail on some of these projects exiting the basin. In blue are of course the Enbridge and Kinder Projects to take W. Canadian crude to the BC coast. In red are all the Enbridge projects that have an upstream component (Clipper and Southern Access) and downstream components such as Flanagan South/Seaway to Gulf Coast and Line 6B expansion In purple is the Enbridge Line 9 reversal to take crude as far east as Montreal and the TransCanada Energy East project. Keystone XL is shown in Green. The Gulf Coast portion of the project is being built first and we will be looking for approval for the upstream portion of this project to be granted so that it can go into service by 2015.
  • This chart shows the current pipeline infrastructure that transports gas within and beyond western Canada.
    Currently the exclusive focus of Western Canadian producers is to serve domestic and US markets.
  • Not surprising then the attention of western Canadian producers is turning to other markets where there is expected to be a strong growth in natural gas demand with associated growth in natural gas imports.
    The economies of S.E Asia fall under this category. Net imports of natural gas (which includes pipeline gas as well as LNG) to these four Asian economic powerhouses alone is expected to more than double over the next 30 years.
  • There are a number of projects that have been announced which are in various stages of development.
    Just as there are many LNG export projects world-wide that will not be developed as their sponsors currently envisage, it is unlikely that all these projects will proceed as currently contemplated.
    There are, however, a sufficiently large number of projects under development that suggests that a significant amount of LNG export capacity should be in place by the end of the decade.
  • Canada’s natural gas production less constrained by resource base more constrained by market
    Growing US gas production means more competition for traditional markets (less US Exports & Greater US Imports)
    Canadian gas production projected under two scenarios
    Scenario 1:Market Constrained
    No LNG Export Development
    Little New Gas-Fired Power Generation added in Ontario post 2012
    Limited Growth in NGV market
    Scenario 2:New Market Opportunities
    LNG Exports – 1 train of 5 mtpa in 2018, 5 such trains by 2023
    Natural Gas replaces some Nuclear Power Refurbishment in Ontario Power Generation
    Higher Growth in NGV Market
  • Growth in BC really ramps up post 2017 when LNG exports commence and production reaches 7 bcfd by the end of the forecast period
  • Transcript of "Vancouver board of trade oil & gas markets"

    1. 1. Canada’s Natural Gas & Oil Resources on a Global Stage Vancouver Board of Trade November 5, 2013 1 #233082
    2. 2. Enabling Responsible Development 2
    3. 3. Canadian Crude Oil Source: Cenovus
    4. 4. Global Crude Oil Reserves by Country Oil Sands 141 102 100 92 80 48 Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec. 2012 4 Russia Abu Dhabi Kuwait I raq I ran Canada Saudi Arabia Venezuela 50 0 Other 44% 37 30 26 25 21 United States 150 56% Qatar 155 Open to Private Sector Restricted (81%) 173 200 Open to Private Sector China billion barrels 250 Kazhakhstan 265 Nigeria 298 World Oil Reserves Libya 300 ls rre a n b v es lio bil eser 9 16 ds r es an lud oil s I nc of
    5. 5. Canadian Crude Oil Production Forecast 5
    6. 6. 2012 Canada and U.S. Demand for Crude Oil by Source Thousand Barrels per Day 6
    7. 7. Changing Global Oil Import Needs Net oil imports in the New Policies Scenario 14 12 10 mm d / b 8 2005 2011 6 2020 4 2035 2 0 China India Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012, EIA 7 European Union United States Japan Korea
    8. 8. Access to Markets – Pipeline Expansions in Development
    9. 9. WCSB Takeaway vs Supply Forecast 9
    10. 10. Canadian Natural Gas 10
    11. 11. North American Unconventional Gas Resources 11
    12. 12. Current Disposition of W. Canada’s Natural Gas Production (2012) TransCanada Alberta (NGTL) Westcoast ANG/ Foothills Northwest SoCal TransCanada Transmission Mainline Foothills PGT Northwest West 2.5 bcf/d PG&E Kern River Great Northern Lakes Border Trailblazer Transwestern ANR NGPL Mid West Panhandle El Paso 4.8 bcf/d NGPL El Paso 12 Domestic 5.3 bcf/d Alliance ANR East TQ&M 1.1 bcf/d M&NE IroquoisPNGTS t or ec CNG V Texas Eastern Transcontinental Algonquin
    13. 13. Natural Gas – Market Opportunities ● ● ● ● LNG for export Oil Sands growth Gas-fired power and cogeneration Vehicles – CNG/LNG NATURAL GAS DEMAND BY SECTOR - 2035 Oil Sands 20.3% LNG 19.2% Vehicles 0.2% Electricity Generation 13.4% 13 Industrial 21.5% Residential 13.3% Commercial 12.1% Source: The Conference Board of Canada December 2012
    14. 14. Imports to Asian Economies with Growing Natural Gas Requirements (Bcf/d) 50 45 40 2 h of t row G 35 6 or 1 Bcfd 7 7% 30 China 25 Taiwan 20 India South Korea 15 Japan 10 5 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: EIA 2013 International Energy Outlook, Press reports, CAPP 14 2035 2040
    15. 15. Canadian LNG export projects in development ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Kitimat LNG (Chevron, Apache)  1.4 Bcf/d  Permits received; awaiting investment decision BC LNG Export Co-operative  0.125 Bcf/d  Permits received LNG Canada (Shell, KOGAS, Mitsubishi, PetroChina)  2.0 – 3.2 Bcf/d  Feasibility stage; applied for some permits Pacific Northwest LNG (Progress/Petronas, Japex)  2.0 Bcf/d (Merger approval granted)  Completed feasibility, progressing to pre-FEED Nexen/Inpex  Conducting feasibility Prince Rupert LNG (BG Group)  3.0 Bcf/d  Advancing feasibility, applying for permits AltaGas/Idemitsu Kosan  0.27 Bcf/d  Conducting feasibility ExxonMobil/Imperial Oil (WCC LNG Ltd)  4.0 Bcf/d  Applied for export licence Woodfibre LNG  0.3 Bcfd  Applied for export licence Expressions of interest to proceed with a project have also been made by; Woodside Petroleum & South Korea E&S 15 Total potential new demand ~ 13.0 Bcf/d
    16. 16. Canada’s Export Opportunity ● Ports of Kitimat and Prince Rupert are closer to Asia than any other North American port  8 sailing days to Japan  9 sailing days to Korea  11 sailing days to China Source: Apache Corporation 16
    17. 17. Canadian Production – Market Constrained Case and New Market Opportunity Case Market Constrained Case Eastern Canada CBM New Market Opportunity Case 17 Western Canada Unconventional Western Canada Conventional
    18. 18. B. C. Production –– Market Constrained Case and New Market Opportunity Case Market Constrained Case New Market Opportunity Case 18
    19. 19. Safe, Environmentally Responsible ● Production  GHG emissions reductions  Water – oil & natural gas  Land & wildlife ● Transportation  Pipelines & Rail • Integrity & operations  Marine • Prevention, response and recovery – tankers/ports ● Regulation and Monitoring  Enhanced monitoring – more sites, more transparency & reporting 19
    20. 20. Jobs and Economic Benefits
    21. 21. What’s in it for us?
    22. 22. Investment in B.C.’s natural gas sector ● ● ● ● $5.2 billion invested in 2012 $6.7 billion invested in 2011 $82 billion invested up to 2012 $13.5 billion spent on acquisitions in B.C. gas plays by foreign companies from 2010 to date 10 8 Capital Investment in British Columbia 6 s r a d n o l i B 4 2 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 22
    23. 23. BC Benefits Watson Gloves 23 Ideal Welders Wright’s Food Service Northern Lights College
    24. 24. Direct Suppliers in British Columbia Current survey shows just under 400 companies
    25. 25. Being Part of the Discussion @oilgascanada www.facebook.com/OilGasCanada 25
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