Canada’s Energy Future Canadian Responsible Investment Conference Victoria – June 20, 2011 Dave Collyer, President
The Global Energy Context <ul><li>Significant energy demand growth: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Population, standards of living ...
Canada’s Energy Circumstances <ul><li>Abundant resources.  </li></ul><ul><li>Energy development / production key economic ...
Global Crude Oil Reserves by Country Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec. 2010 Includes 170 billion barrels of oil sands reserve...
Canadian Oil Sands and Conventional  Oil Production Forecast (2011-2025) Actual Forecast In Situ Mining Conventional Heavy...
Canadian & U.S. Jobs & Economic Benefits  <ul><li>Construction & operations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Upstream </li></ul></ul>...
Canadian Public Opinion - Oil & Gas Is it in Canada’s best interest to have a strong oil and gas sector? 78% - Yes, in Can...
Canadian Public Opinion   Which is the best goal when it comes to the oil sands?
Social License & Oil Sands <ul><li>Oil Sands Social License = </li></ul><ul><li>Performance  +  Communications </li></ul><...
Responsible Canadian Energy <ul><li>Oil Sands Report </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Principles & Performance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul...
Global Energy-Related GHG Emissions <ul><li>GHG emissions from oil sands: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>~ 1/1000th of global GHG e...
North American GHG Emissions (2009):   Coal-Fired Power and Oil Sands 15 megatonnes 50 megatonnes 100 megatonnes FL GA TX ...
Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions <ul><li>Energy Efficiency </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Using less energy input </li></ul></ul><...
CAPP Climate Policy Principles <ul><li>Principles </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Balance - “3Es” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Efficie...
Canada’s Energy Future  <ul><li>“ Parallel Paths Approach” -  Prosperity from growth in responsible hydrocarbon production...
Key Enablers for “Parallel Paths” <ul><li>“ 3E” policy framework – environment, economy, energy </li></ul><ul><li>New para...
 
Royal Society of Canada Report Environmental & Health Impacts of Canada’s Oil Sands Industry <ul><li>Science-based, indepe...
Full Cycle GHG Emissions Source: Jacobs Consultancy,  Life Cycle Assessment Comparison for North America and Imported Crud...
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June 20, 2011 - Canadian Responsible Investment Conference, Victoria

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June 20, 2011 - Canadian Responsible Investment Conference, Victoria

  1. 1. Canada’s Energy Future Canadian Responsible Investment Conference Victoria – June 20, 2011 Dave Collyer, President
  2. 2. The Global Energy Context <ul><li>Significant energy demand growth: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Population, standards of living </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Need all forms of energy: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing role for renewables </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Continuing reliance on hydrocarbons </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing role for non- conventional crude oil & natural gas </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Technology is a key lever for sustainable growth </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Production </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cost competitiveness </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Environmental performance </li></ul></ul>Current Policies Scenario Global Primary Energy Demand
  3. 3. Canada’s Energy Circumstances <ul><li>Abundant resources. </li></ul><ul><li>Energy development / production key economic driver. </li></ul><ul><li>Competitiveness challenges. </li></ul><ul><li>Large exporter (particularly compared to OECD). </li></ul><ul><li>Regional diversity in energy production & consumption. </li></ul><ul><li>High per capita energy consumption. </li></ul><ul><li>Relatively “clean” electricity generation sector. </li></ul><ul><li>Mixed track record on value added and “clean tech”. </li></ul><ul><li>High level of connectivity with U.S. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Global Crude Oil Reserves by Country Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec. 2010 Includes 170 billion barrels of oil sands reserves World Oil Reserves Open to Private Sector Restricted (79%) Open to Private Sector Oil Sands 56% Other 44%
  5. 5. Canadian Oil Sands and Conventional Oil Production Forecast (2011-2025) Actual Forecast In Situ Mining Conventional Heavy Conventional Light Pentanes/Condensate
  6. 6. Canadian & U.S. Jobs & Economic Benefits <ul><li>Construction & operations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Upstream </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pipelines </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Upgraders & refineries </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Employment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Direct & indirect </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Supply of goods and services </li></ul><ul><li>Economic benefits (CERI study - over 25 years) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic impact generated $2.1 trillion (Canada) & $520 billion (U.S.) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Employment 11.7 million person-years (Canada) & 5.7 million person-years (U.S.) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Federal & provincial tax ~ $400 billion; provincial royalties $300 billion </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Canadian Public Opinion - Oil & Gas Is it in Canada’s best interest to have a strong oil and gas sector? 78% - Yes, in Canada’s Interest 14% - Not in Canada’s Interest 8% - Don’t Know
  8. 8. Canadian Public Opinion Which is the best goal when it comes to the oil sands?
  9. 9. Social License & Oil Sands <ul><li>Oil Sands Social License = </li></ul><ul><li>Performance + Communications </li></ul><ul><li>“ 3E” policy framework </li></ul><ul><li>Robust regional planning: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>System-wide metrics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Effective monitoring </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transparent data </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3 rd party validation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>World class regulation </li></ul><ul><li>Technology & innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Collaboration </li></ul><ul><li>Proactive </li></ul><ul><li>Transparent </li></ul><ul><li>Verifiable </li></ul><ul><li>Visible leadership </li></ul><ul><li>Broad portfolio: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>mainstream </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>social media </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>directly & via 3 rd parties </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Canada, U.S., Europe, Asia </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. Responsible Canadian Energy <ul><li>Oil Sands Report </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Principles & Performance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Measurement & Reporting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transparency </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. Global Energy-Related GHG Emissions <ul><li>GHG emissions from oil sands: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>~ 1/1000th of global GHG emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>6.5% of Canada’s GHG emissions </li></ul></ul>Global Emissions Canada’s Emissions
  12. 12. North American GHG Emissions (2009): Coal-Fired Power and Oil Sands 15 megatonnes 50 megatonnes 100 megatonnes FL GA TX NC MI AL MO KY IN OH NE NM ND CO SC KS IA TN WV WY VA MN UT OK WI AZ AR AK LA IL NV OR MT SD NJ NY NH MS Legend U.S. Coal fired power generating plants Canadian coal-fired power generating plants Canadian oil sands Sources: U.S. DOE/EIA & Environment Canada
  13. 13. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions <ul><li>Energy Efficiency </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Using less energy input </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reducing energy waste/losses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Capturing waste heat </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cogeneration power/steam </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Improved recovery processes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lower temperature extraction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Additives to reduce use of both water and energy (steam) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Use of electricity rather than steam </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Underground combustion rather than steam </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Carbon capture & sequestration </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Most effective at upgraders </li></ul></ul>Oil Sands GHG Emissions/bbl 29% g co2 eq./mj 1990 2009
  14. 14. CAPP Climate Policy Principles <ul><li>Principles </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Balance - “3Es” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Efficiency – efficient actions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology – stimulate investment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Predictability & stability – support investment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Competitiveness – compatibility w/ major trading partners </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Distributional Fairness – share cost burden equitably </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Harmonization – across jurisdictions in Canada </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Administrative simplicity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>National carbon policy framework consistent with above principles </li></ul>
  15. 15. Canada’s Energy Future <ul><li>“ Parallel Paths Approach” - Prosperity from growth in responsible hydrocarbon production and renewable energy……. </li></ul><ul><li>Why? </li></ul><ul><li>Recognizes need for change </li></ul><ul><li>Recognizes Canadian reality </li></ul><ul><li>Takes “best of both” approach </li></ul><ul><li>Keeps options for future open </li></ul><ul><li>Provides an opportunity to find common ground among diverse interests </li></ul><ul><li>Market- Based Principles </li></ul><ul><li>Primary reliance on market forces to drive energy production and consumption (targeted intervention to address barriers to entry and enable market-based solutions) </li></ul><ul><li>Costs of transformation of energy system should ultimately be borne by consumers making informed choices </li></ul>
  16. 16. Key Enablers for “Parallel Paths” <ul><li>“ 3E” policy framework – environment, economy, energy </li></ul><ul><li>New paradigm in technology & innovation - collaboration </li></ul><ul><li>Fiscal competitiveness and regulatory reform </li></ul><ul><li>Market diversification & growth (commodities + technology) </li></ul><ul><li>Unwavering commitment to continuous improvement in environmental and social performance across the energy system </li></ul><ul><li>Progressive shift to lower carbon domestic energy supply and use - enabled in part by a balanced, pragmatic carbon policy </li></ul><ul><li>Action on energy conservation and efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Broad and sustained commitment to energy education </li></ul><ul><li>A step change toward developing the workforce of the future </li></ul>
  17. 18. Royal Society of Canada Report Environmental & Health Impacts of Canada’s Oil Sands Industry <ul><li>Science-based, independent analysis of the environmental aspects of Canada’s oil sands </li></ul><ul><li>Addresses many of the issues and perceptions of oil sands development: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reclamation is not keeping pace, but sustainable reclamation is achievable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Water use does not threaten viability of the Athabasca River </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No impact on Athabasca water quality/ecosystem and no evidence of impact on human health in downstream communities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tailings technologies are emerging, but tailings inventory is growing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GHG emissions per barrel are reducing but growing production creates a challenge in meeting international commitments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Minimal impacts on regional air quality </li></ul></ul>December 2010
  18. 19. Full Cycle GHG Emissions Source: Jacobs Consultancy, Life Cycle Assessment Comparison for North America and Imported Crudes, June 2009 98 102 102 102 106 102 107 <ul><li>On a life cycle basis, oil sands have similar GHG emissions to other sources of oil </li></ul><ul><li>Full cycle emissions or “wells to wheels” is the appropriate measure to use in setting carbon policies </li></ul>104 114 Range of Common U.S. Imported Crude Oils

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