Big Questions Facing
Western Canadian Oil
and Gas
Jackie Forrest, Senior Director, IHS CERA
10 December 2013
Calgary, Albe...
Big Questions Facing Western Canadian Oil and Gas
•

How big is North America’s oil revival, and will it all fit?

•

West...
1) How big is North America’s
oil revival, and will it all fit?

3
US crude oil supply and demand
Even with Canadian imports growing, offshore imports are still required

18,000
Total crude...
2) Western Canadian crude
oil pipelines: where to and
when?

5
New pipeline projects planned in three directions –
east, west, and south

© 2013 IHS

6
Note: Not to scale. Not exact rou...
Western Canadian Supply for Pipeline Export
versus Pipeline Capacity
IHS CERA
outlook for
Western
Canadian
Supply

7,000

...
3) Is rail a short-term bridge
or long-term solution?

8
Outlook for Rapid Growth in Western Canada
crude-by-rail
Rail Crude Movements from Western Canada - History

1,000,000

Ra...
4) What’s the potential for
North America’s shale gas
expansion?

10
North American natural gas supply outlook
140

120

100

80
Bcf
per
day

60

40

20

0
2011
Conventional

2015

2019

Coal...
5) How big will Canadian
LNG be?

12
North American LNG potential projects
compared with IHS CERA outlook

IHS CERA North American LNG export outlook
2020

© 2...
Oil Sands Dialogue, a
resource for fact-based
information

14
Oil Sands Dialogue researches critical issues
Now available for download at
http://www.ihs.com/oilsandsdialogue
• Critical...
Big Questions Facing Western Canadian Oil and Gas
•

How big is North America’s oil revival, and will it all fit?

•

West...
For more information about this presentation or
IHS CERA in general, please contact
Jackie Forrest
+1 403 770 4403
Jackie....
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CAPP Speaker Series - Jackie Forrest, IHS CERA

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Big Questions (and Answers) on Market Access and Production Growth for Oil and Natural Gas Producers

Both Canada’s natural gas and oil industries are facing key uncertainties with regards to market access and production growth. These questions include:

How big is North America’s oil renaissance, and will it all fit?
Western Canadian crude oil pipelines: where to and when? What factors will impact ultimate timing?
Is rail a short-term bridge or long-term solution?
What’s the potential for North America’s natural gas shale expansion?
How big will Canadian LNG be?

If any of these questions resonate with you, you won’t want to miss Jackie Forrest’s CAPP Speaker Series Luncheon on December 10. Ms. Forrest may not have all the answers, but as senior director for IHS CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates), a leading international research group that performs in-depth analyses on key industry issues and trends, she has the latest research and forecasting data related to North American oil and gas supply, economics, policies and markets.

Presentation delivered on December 10, 2013

Published in: Business
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CAPP Speaker Series - Jackie Forrest, IHS CERA

  1. 1. Big Questions Facing Western Canadian Oil and Gas Jackie Forrest, Senior Director, IHS CERA 10 December 2013 Calgary, Alberta
  2. 2. Big Questions Facing Western Canadian Oil and Gas • How big is North America’s oil revival, and will it all fit? • Western Canadian crude oil pipelines: where to and when? • Is rail a short-term bridge or long-term solution? • What’s the potential for North America’s shale gas expansion? • How big will Canadian LNG be? • Oil Sands Dialogue, a resource for fact-based information © 2013 IHS 2
  3. 3. 1) How big is North America’s oil revival, and will it all fit? 3
  4. 4. US crude oil supply and demand Even with Canadian imports growing, offshore imports are still required 18,000 Total crude runs 16,000 14,000 Offshore imports 12,000 Thousand 10,000 barrels per day 8,000 Canadian imports 6,000 US domestic production 4,000 2,000 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: IHS CERA. © 2013 IHS 4
  5. 5. 2) Western Canadian crude oil pipelines: where to and when? 5
  6. 6. New pipeline projects planned in three directions – east, west, and south © 2013 IHS 6 Note: Not to scale. Not exact routings.
  7. 7. Western Canadian Supply for Pipeline Export versus Pipeline Capacity IHS CERA outlook for Western Canadian Supply 7,000 Thousand barrels per day 6,000 Northern Gateway Crude-by-rail required Energy East 5,000 Trans Mountain Expansion 4,000 Keystone XL 3,000 Enbridge Mainline Capacity 2,000 1,000 Keystone Trans Mountain - Existing Rangeland/Milk River/Express 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 0 Source:IHS © 2013 IHS Notes: Effective pipeline capacity is assumed to be 100% of announced project capacity. New pipelines ramp up to effective capacity in first full year of operation (exception is Energy East, assumed to ramp-up to full capacity in 2018 when Atlantic Canada is accessed). Keystone XL, Enbridge Mainline, and Energy East effective capacity from Western Canada has been adjusted to account for downstream terminals that on-load crude oil. Source IHS CERA 7
  8. 8. 3) Is rail a short-term bridge or long-term solution? 8
  9. 9. Outlook for Rapid Growth in Western Canada crude-by-rail Rail Crude Movements from Western Canada - History 1,000,000 Rail Crude Movements from Western Canada - Outlook (assumes new pipelines are constructed as planned) 900,000 barrels per day 800,000 Rail Crude Movements from Western Canada - Outlook (assumes no new pipelines) 700,000 Western Canadian Rail On Loading Capacity 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Q2 2016 Q3 2015 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Oct-13 Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 © 2013 IHS Source: IHS CERA, Stats Canada. 9
  10. 10. 4) What’s the potential for North America’s shale gas expansion? 10
  11. 11. North American natural gas supply outlook 140 120 100 80 Bcf per day 60 40 20 0 2011 Conventional 2015 2019 Coalbed methane 2023 Tight sands 2027 2031 Associated gas 2035 Shale Source: IHS CERA. © 2013 IHS 11
  12. 12. 5) How big will Canadian LNG be? 12
  13. 13. North American LNG potential projects compared with IHS CERA outlook IHS CERA North American LNG export outlook 2020 © 2013 IHS Canada 1.4 Bcf/day 3.6 Bcf/day United States Source: IHS CERA 2035 5.2 Bcf/day 5.5 Bcf/day 1 3
  14. 14. Oil Sands Dialogue, a resource for fact-based information 14
  15. 15. Oil Sands Dialogue researches critical issues Now available for download at http://www.ihs.com/oilsandsdialogue • Critical Questions for the Canadian Oil Sands, October 2013 • Keystone XL Pipeline: No Material Impact on US GHG Emissions, August 2013 • Assessing Marine Transport for Oil Sands on Canada’s West Coast, June 2013 • Extracting Economic Value from the Canadian Oil Sands – Upgrading and Refining in Alberta (or Not)?, March 2013 • Future Markets for Canadian Oil Sands, January 2013 • Oil Sands, Greenhouse Gases, and US Oil Supply, November 2012 • Assessing Environmental Regulations in the Canadian Oil Sands, December 2011 • Major Sources of US Oil Supply: The Challenge of Comparisons, October 2011 © 2013 IHS Upcoming research: Oil Sands Economic Benefits: With or Without Growth – Q4 2013 15
  16. 16. Big Questions Facing Western Canadian Oil and Gas • How big is North America’s oil revival, and will it all fit? • Western Canadian crude oil pipelines: where to and when? • Is rail a short-term bridge or long-term solution? • What’s the potential for North America’s shale gas expansion? • How big will Canadian LNG be? • Oil Sands Dialogue, a resource for fact-based information © 2013 IHS 16
  17. 17. For more information about this presentation or IHS CERA in general, please contact Jackie Forrest +1 403 770 4403 Jackie.Forrest@ihscera.com

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