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Presentation by Greg Stringham, CAPP Vice President, Oil Sands and Markets

Presentation by Greg Stringham, CAPP Vice President, Oil Sands and Markets

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Association of unversities and colleges of canada   oil sands Association of unversities and colleges of canada oil sands Document Transcript

  • Canada’s Oil Sands On A Global Stage Association of Universities and Colleges of Canada April 21, 2013 1 Photo: Cenovus Enabling Responsible Development 2
  • Global Primary Energy Demand 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 million tonnes oil equivalent Other Renewables Bioenergy Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Coal 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2010 Source: International Energy Agency – New Policies Scenario World Energy Outlook 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2012 Global Crude Oil Reserves by Country Restricted (81%) 173 155 150 141 102 100 92 80 48 Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec. 2012 Libya Russia Abu Dhabi Kuwait Iraq Iran Canada Saudi Arabia Venezuela 50 0 Other 44% 37 30 26 25 21 United States 200 Oil Sands 56% Open to Private Sector Qatar billion barrels 250 Open to Private Sector China 265 Kazhakhstan 298 Nigeria 300 World Oil Reserves ls rre ba on rves li bil se 69 s re s 1 and e lud il s Inc of o 2035
  • Canada’s Oil Sands Resource Photo: ConocoPhillips - Surmont Two Methods of Oil Sands Recovery Drilling: 80% of reserves Schematic: Devon - Jackfish Mining: 20% of reserves
  • Canadian Oil Sands (Bitumen and SCO) & Conventional Production Forecast Light/Tight Oil Production Thousand b/d 1,800 1,600 1,400 + 750,000 b/d in 2 years 1,200 Eagle Ford (Texas) N. Dakota 1,000 800 SK Light 600 AB Light 400 200 Jan-2012 Jul-2011 Jan-2011 Jul-2010 Jan-2010 Jul-2009 Jan-2009 Jul-2008 Jan-2008 Jul-2007 Jul-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2006 Jul-2005 Jan-2005 0
  • 2011 Canada and U.S. Demand for Crude Oil by Source Thousand Barrels per Day Changing Global Oil Import Needs Net oil imports in the New Policies Scenario 14 12 TRADITIONAL MARKET FUTURE MARKETS? mmb/d 10 8 2005 2011 6 2020 4 2035 2 0 United States Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012, EIA China Japan Korea India European Union
  • Access to Markets – Pipeline Expansions in Development WCSB Takeaway vs Supply Forecast
  • Western Canada Crude Oil Rail Exports • • • Q3/2012 = 70,000 b/d Q1/2013 ~ 120,000 b/d Q4/2013 ~ 200,000 b/d • ~4% of WCSB production • Opportunities: • • • • Relatively quick Flexibility – different markets – East Less diluent Use rail in both directions • Challenges: • • Higher costs Limited loading and tank car availability 13 Oil Sands Environmental Performance
  • Environmental Performance • Production § § § § COSIA GHG emissions Water – oil sands/tight oil Land/tailings • Regulation and Monitoring § Enhanced oil sands monitoring – more sites, more transparency § Up to $50M/yr paid by industry Global GHG Emissions Global Emissions Canada’s 2% Agriculture 8.0% U.S. 18% Solvent & Other Product Use 0.0% European Union 12% India 7% Oil Sands 6.9% Industrial Processes 7.4% Japan 4% China 25% Waste 3.2% Other Oil & Gas 15.2% Canada 2% Australia/New Zealand 1% Other 26% Russian Federation 5% Energy Transport 28.0% Other Energy Stationary 31.2% GHG emissions from oil sands: Sources: 1. United Nations Statistics Division (2009 Data) 2. Environment Canada (2010 Data) § just over 1/1000th of global GHG emissions § 6.9% of Canada’s GHG emissions § 26% reduction in intensity from 1990
  • Greenhouse Gas Emissions 25 Oil Sands GHG Emissions/bbl • Carbon regulation 20 g co2 eq./mj § Provincial Regulation Covers 100% of oil sands Mandatory 12% reduction Carbon price since July 2007 • • • Alignment with US (17% target and vehicle emissions standards) Coal sector done, moving ahead with oil sector regulation in 2013 • 10 5 § Federal Regulation • 26% 15 0 1990 2010 • Reducing GHG Emissions § Using energy more efficiently • Capturing CO2 § Governments investing over $3 billion – partners with industry § Shell Quest CCS proceeding North American GHG Emissions (2011) for Coal-fired Power and Oil Sands AK MT ND MN OR WY SD NE MI MO NY IA KS NV NH WI UT IN CO OH WV IL AZ NM OK NJ VA KY NC TN Canadian oil sands AR SC Legend 51-100+ mtonnes 16-50 mtonnes 0-15 mtonnes AL GA Canadian coal-fired power generating plants TX LA MS FL Sources: U.S. DOE/EIA & Environment Canada U.S. Coal fired power generating plants
  • Full-cycle GHG Emissions Oil Sands & U.S. Refined Crudes U.S. Barrel Refined in the U.S. (2005) Venezuela - Petrozuata US -Kern River Cdn Oil Sands: Mining SCO Nigeria - Bonny Light Canadian Oil Sands: SAGD Dilbit Iraq-Basra Light +5% Cdn Oil Sands: Low SOR SAGD Dilbit US - Mars Venezuela Bachaquero Mexico - Maya +2% Cdn Oil Sands: Mining Dilbit (PFT) Iraq - Kirkuk Blend US Barrel Refined in the U.S. (2005) Well-to-tank Saudi Arabia - Arab Light Refined product Combustion Brazil - Tupi North Sea - Forties 0 100 200 300 400 kgCO2e per barrel of refined product 500 600 Source: IHSCERA Oil Sands Dialogue Getting the Numbers Right 2012 Less Energy, Less Water and Less Land • Alternatives to reduce the need for both water and energy (steam) § § § § Cogeneration – steam and electric power Solvent/steam injection Alternative well configurations for SAGD Electro-thermal technology • Water reduction and recycle Ceramic membranes for water treatment § Use of saline (non-fresh) water for steam § Faster waste water recycle § Water technology development centre • Land reclamation § Faster Forests – 600,000 seedlings in 2011 § Winter wetland planting Faster Forests 20
  • Jobs and Economic Benefits The Oil and Natural Gas Industry A Key Driving Force in the Canadian Economy • • • • • Investing $61 billion in Canada in 2012 $21 billion to governments in 2011 (Royalties and Taxes) 20% of the value on Toronto Stock Exchange Approx. 18% of Canada’s exports Employs more than 550,000 in Canada Upstream Oil & Gas Auto Manufacturing Forestry & Logging 22 Wheat & Barley Uranium
  • Suppliers across Canada Oil Sands Employment Outlook to 2021 In a “most likely” scenario, oil sands employment is projected to expand by 73 per cent over the next decade. Source: Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada
  • Jobs in High Demand • Engineers and Geoscience Professionals § Geologists, petrophysicists, exploitation engineers, mining engineers, facility engineers, petroleum engineers (drilling and completions, development and production, reservoir and process engineers) • Technologists and Technicians § Instrumentation & electrical technicians, instrumentation technologists, field service technicians • Field specialists, operators and supervisors § Operators (thermal, plant, control room), operations (service, field, construction) supervisors, truck drivers, rig managers and operators • Trades § Mechanics, welders, rig technicians • Business and Operations Support § Compensation experts, sales and technical professionals, business development representatives 25 Improving Environmental Performance Generating Economic Benefits
  • Enabling Responsible Development 27