Samuel Oben Djan, Lead Geoscientist at GNPC - Upstream challenges & opportunities
•
3 likes•1,098 views
Samuel Oben Djan, Lead Geoscientist at GNPC spoke at the Oil & Gas Event June 2013
Recommended
Recommended
More Related Content
What's hot
What's hot (20)
Similar to Samuel Oben Djan, Lead Geoscientist at GNPC - Upstream challenges & opportunities
Similar to Samuel Oben Djan, Lead Geoscientist at GNPC - Upstream challenges & opportunities (20)
More from Global Business Events
More from Global Business Events (6)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
Samuel Oben Djan, Lead Geoscientist at GNPC - Upstream challenges & opportunities
- 1. Upstream Opportunities & Challenges Ghana in a global context, the future & the challenges of the oil and gas industry S. Obeng-Djan Lead Geoscientist
- 2. ©GNPC 2013 Outline • Ghana in a global context • Global production outlook • Peak Oil? • What The Future Holds – Sedimentary basins of Ghana – Recent Discoveries – Future Opportunities & Time Lines • Upstream Challenges • Conclusion
- 3. ©GNPC 2013 Ghana in a global context
- 4. PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES ROBERTSON 0 500 1000 1500 2000 LIQUIDS GAS USGS (2000) CAMPBELL (1998) MASTERS et al (1994) (2000) Robertson
- 5. ©GNPC 2013
- 6. AUSTRALASIA Source: Global Deepwater forecast of oil production from 1987 – 2050 (Energyfiles) Global Deep-water forecast of oil production from 1987 – 2050
- 7. ©GNPC 2013 PEAK OIL REALLY? • ‘Peak oil is a misleading idea’ • Technology is the key. • Oil reserves have more than doubled since 1980 – more than the increase in production: oil is not running out.
- 8. ©GNPC 2013 Peak Oil Really? • A variety of new technologies is creating new reserves outside the traditional oil-exporting countries: in pre-salt reservoirs, ultra- deepwater, impermeable deposits (such as shale), accessed by a combination of horizontal drilling and ‘fracking’ • Reserves are also increasing in many traditional exporting countries, with new technology focused on their particular conditions, e.g. enhancing ultimate recovery from mature reservoirs.
- 9. ©GNPC 2013 10 discoveries in the world - 2011 Name of basin Operator Block/ basin Discovery Onshore Argentina Repsol YPF Vaca Muerta basin 927MMbbl Offshore Australia Apache WA-290 – P Exploration Permit 427ft(130m) of net gas pay Barents Sea Total EP Norge AS Production License 535 10-50Bscm (recoverable gas) GOM ExxonMobil Keathley Canyon block 919, 918 recoverable resource of more than 700 MMboe combined Onshore Iraq Heritage Oil Kurdistan Region 6.8-9.1 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) with 42-71 MMbbl of condensate and 53-75 MMbbl of oil. Offshore Malaysia Petronas NC3 and Spaoh-1 wells in Blocks SK316 and SK306 offshore Sarawak." 2.6 trillion standard cubic feet (tscf) of net gas in place. Offshore Mozambique Eni Mamba South 1 prospect, 696 feet (212 m) of continuous gas pay Onshore US Anadarko Wattenberg field, 500 MMbbl to 1.5 Bboe
- 10. ©GNPC 2013 WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR GHANA
- 11. ©GNPC 2013 SEDIMENTARY BASINS OF GHANA VOLTAIAN BASIN
- 12. ©GNPC 2013 Ghana Offshore Activities ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! " ª ª ªª ª ªªªª ªªª ª ª ª ª ªªªªªª ª ª ª ª ª ª ª ª ª ª ª ª ªªª ª ª ª ªª ªª ªª ª ª ª ª ªª ª ª ª ª ª ª ª ªª ª ª ª ª ªªª ª ª ª ª ª ªª ª ª ª ª ª ª ªª ª ª ª ª ªª ªªªªªªªª ª ª ª ª ªª ª ªª ª ªªªª ª ª ª ª ª ª ª -50m -3500m -4000m -500m -200m -4500m -2500m -2000m -5000m ADA AXIM KETA TEMA APAM ACCRA ANLOGA ELMINA ESIAMA ATUABO WINNEBA DIXCOVEBONYERE SALTPOND CAPE COAST PRINCE'S TOWN KUMASI J-06 J-05 J-01J-07 TP-1 ST-8 ST-6 ST-9H CTP-1ODUM-2 ODUM-1 NAK-1X KETA-1 GH5-B1 CUDA-1 SANKOFA DZATA-1 WCTP-1X TEMA -1 DZITA-1 NUNYA-1X SAPELE-1 SHAM 9-1S.DIX-1X DOLPH-1X DIX 4-2X ATIAVI-1 AXIM 4-3X PARADISE-1 KOMENDA-2X CHAOS 13-2 AMOCO 16-1 TAKORADI 11-1 2°0'0"W4°0'0"W 2°0'0"E1°0'0"E0°0'0"1°0'0"W3°0'0"W 7°0'0"N 7°0'0"N 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N 5°0'0"N 5°0'0"N 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N 3°0'0"N 3°0'0"N
- 13. ©GNPC 2013 Recent Discoveries besides Jubilee in Ghana
- 14. ©GNPC 2013 Post Jubilee Discoveries and Status 14
- 15. ©GNPC 2013 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! " ª ª ªª ª ªªªª ªªª ª ª ª ª ªªªªªª ª ª ª ª ª ª ª ª ª ª ª ª ªªª ª ª ª ªª ªª ªª ª ª ª ª ªª ª ª ª ª ª ª ª ªª ª ª ª ª ªªª ª ª ª ª ª ªª ª ª ª ª ª ª ªª ª ª ª ª ªª ªªªªªªªª ª ª ª ª ªª ª ªª ª ªªªª ª ª ª ª ª ª ª -50m -3500m -4000m -500m -200m -4500m -2500m -2000m -5000m ADA AXIM KETA TEMA APAM ACCRA ANLOGA ELMINA ESIAMA ATUABO WINNEBA DIXCOVEBONYERE SALTPOND CAPE COAST PRINCE'S TOWN KUMASI J-06 J-05 J-01J-07 TP-1 ST-8 ST-6 ST-9H CTP-1ODUM-2 ODUM-1 NAK-1X KETA-1 GH5-B1 CUDA-1 SANKOFA DZATA-1 WCTP-1X TEMA -1 DZITA-1 NUNYA-1X SAPELE-1 SHAM 9-1S.DIX-1X DOLPH-1X DIX 4-2X ATIAVI-1 AXIM 4-3X PARADISE-1 KOMENDA-2X CHAOS 13-2 AMOCO 16-1 TAKORADI 11-1 2°0'0"W4°0'0"W 2°0'0"E1°0'0"E0°0'0"1°0'0"W3°0'0"W 7°0'0"N 7°0'0"N 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N 5°0'0"N 5°0'0"N 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N 3°0'0"N 3°0'0"N Future opportunities & timelines
- 17. ©GNPC 2013 Upstream Challenges • The upstream oil and gas industry faces a complex set of conflicting issues, including: • Increasing energy demand, • Reserves increasingly difficult to locate and produce • Environmental challenges • Shortage of qualified professionals and the Impact
- 18. ©GNPC 2013 Upstream Challenges-Increasing Energy Demand • Energy demand is projected to increase 40– 50% by 2035. • Global consumption of natural gas is forecast to rise 52 percent, to 169 trillion cubic feet, from 2008 to 2035. • Economic growth continues to look good in emerging nations like Ghana, • China and India will consume 31 percent of the world’s energy by 2035 (IEA)
- 19. ©GNPC 2013 Upstream Challenges-Reserve Optimization • Uncertain reservoir parameters – Prognosis vrs actuals • foreseeable and unexpected events such as maintenance and intervention
- 20. ©GNPC 2013 Upstream Challenges - Environmental • Energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide will rise. • Oil Spill contingencies & Management
- 21. ©GNPC 2013 Upstream challenges: Shortage of qualified professionals - The Impact
- 22. THE CHALLENGE-PRODUCTIVITY “GAP” STARTING UNIVERSITY PRODUCTIVE GEOSCIENTIST 8 Years Modified from Kaldi, 2004 Photo by Bennett, 1885, from Wolf, 1983 cac 2006, photo by Wolf 1983
- 23. ©GNPC 2013 Upstream Challenges- Professionals • In the next 7 years, 40 – 70% of experienced Geoscientist will be eligible to retire. [New York Times] • Need for technology and skill transfer • Role of government & IOCs
- 24. Katz, 2003 AAPG Data normalized to exclude non-geoscience employment Post Graduation Jobs for Geoscientists, US & Canada
- 25. ©GNPC 2013 The impact • The impact of this shortage of skilled staff has effect on two key areas within the industry: – ƒ Direct employee costs – ƒ Lost profits from lack of experienced staff
- 26. ©GNPC 2013 Direct Employee Cost • ƒHiring and replacement costs • ƒTraining and lost productivity costs – More time needed to train to appreciable level for effective production • Compensation; including the cost of: – Salary increases – Annual and long–term bonus increases
- 27. ©GNPC 2013 Lost profits from lack of experienced staff • Delayed or cancelled projects • An inability to implement growth and expansion plans • Costs related to safety issues – A lot of expensive mistakes on the job • Costs of alternative staffing methods (consultants)
- 28. ©GNPC 2013 Another Ugly Situation!
- 29. ©GNPC 2013 29Source: Deloitte, 2005 AGING WORKFORCE
- 30. ©GNPC 2013 Case study: Geology Dept. (GNPC)
- 31. ©GNPC 2013 So why not attract more? 31
- 32. ©GNPC 2013 Salary levels - UK • Range of typical starting salaries: £28,000 - £35,000, depending on level of qualification on entry. This usually increases significantly following completion of necessary training. • Range of typical salaries at senior level: £35,000 - £70,000 rising up to £130,000 at management level with over ten years’ experience. Source: http://www.prospects.ac.uk/geoscientist_salary.htm
- 33. ©GNPC 2013 Salary levels - USA Source: AAPG Explorer
- 34. ©GNPC 2013 Salary Comparisons by Region Assistant Geologist $106,229 $113,337 $91,864 $109,461 $107,103 $88,505 $92,981 $99,296 $79,772 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 Africa Australia & Oceania Central Asia Europe Far East Middle East North America South America Southern Asia Annual Salary Continents Salary/p.a Salary/p.a Source: http://www.rigzone.com/jobs/salary/
- 35. ©GNPC 2013 Addressing the issue! • Redesign recruiting efforts to accommodate mature workers • Industry must be attractive with incentives • Retain talented mature employees through special programs • Preserve critical knowledge before it’s lost • Industry should be interested in academia (school systems) 35
- 36. ©GNPC 2013 Conclusions • The potential of the oil & gas business in Ghana has just began. • The potential for future oil production depends on the application of technology, economics and sound investment practices • The long term Impact of the workforce crisis should be addressed by all interested parties in the oil & gas industry
- 37. ©GNPC 2013 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION IT REQUIRES COLLECTIVE THINKING
Editor's Notes
- Commensurably on the global scene, Ghana is a new entrant in the club of oil and gas producing countries. Our industry is now emerging from the doldrums when the notion was that our sedimentary basins were dangerous geologically to invest and that it did not hold any promise. And after Jubilee some have asked what’s next?The recent discoveries and producing fields have negated those axioms. And there are still yet to find resources in our sedimentary basins indicating that the future of the hydrocarbon industry in Ghana is still bright!
- Various estimates have been made as to remaining resources and this keep changing as the years pass by.So what is the point? Is there a peak oil really?
- This picture is based on Esson Mobil’s revisions from 2002. if this is a true reflection of future discovery,Then the future really looks bleak. But just look at the next slide
- This is the global picture of oil production to 2100 the resource based production forecast. By describing oil as a fossil fuel, everyone admits that it was formed in the past, which means that we started running out when we consumed the first barrel. That much can surely be agreed, even if opinions differ about how far along the depletion curve we are. The global trend shows that we are at the peak production. Despite this assertion, Many new discoveries continue to be unearthed. It could also be indicated that, the West African Gulf of Guinea is a virgin area in terms of exploration and that with improved exploration technology and data, new discoveries holds sway. This is so because the Gulf of Guinea has not seen the aggressive exploration in terms of drilling that has occurred in other parts of the world and this is attested to by the recent activities unearthing discoveries. Global deepwater oil production forecast indicates Africa, in general, as producing a larger percentage of oil. The graph shows a comparison of the world production of deepwater oil and the contribution from Africa. Certainly, Africa is the destination for future investment opportunities especially, GHANA!!
- I agree with John Mitchel, who said that Peak oil is a misleading idea!!.The potential for future oil production depends on resources being converted into reserves by the application of technology, economics and investment.
- These are but a few of the discoveries made in just 2011.The implication is that the potential for future discoveries are there and hence the idea of peak oil is indeed misleading.
- The story has now began. These recent discoveries which are all at various stages of appraisal and development.
- Inland Voltaian Basin – 103,600sqkm after Phase I of the initial reconnaissance study.At the moment, an aggressive exploration activity in the Voltaian Basin is underwayTo unearth the potential of this basin. This is being done in phases. The initial Phase IIs expected to be completed early next year and investors will then be invited to partake in the Exploration activities. Farm-in/ Joint venture partnerships still existValue addition to hydrocarbon resources especially in the downstream sector – Production Of Fertilizer, Methanol, petrochemicals etc
- Meeting the energy demand of Ghana is a challenge. Increasing energy demand puts pressure on the Upstream industry to produce moreOil & gas needed in thermal Power generators as reliance on hydro is becoming more and more insufficient.
- The ramification of this will translate into the economy here in Ghana.
- Uncertain reservoir upstream operators have largely implemented production optimization processes in an isolated and independent manner at different levels of the production process. For example, production is optimized at the business level by focusing on maximizing recovery and net present value of the asset or reservoir. Or a producer may focus on the installed or operational levels of the production chain by optimizing specific wells, gathering networks, or surface facilities. Each of these efforts can improve production, but it isn’t until these divided processes are fully integrated that operators will realize the true value of production optimization.
- The industry has just began in Ghana. Emissions of carbon dioxide management Managing properly the environment may seem to be in order. Maintenance and drills may be in order So that in the event of any such disaster, we will not be taken unawares.Certainly managing offshore hazards should be a team responsibility.
- This is a global statistics but reflects well on the condition in Ghana as well.Improved methods of exploration, such as directional drilling, completion engineering, and purification technologies have all dramatically improved, thereby intensifying the need for highly qualified technical specialists.
- Direct Employee costs are the costs related to identifying, hiring, training, and retaining qualified employees and include the following:1. Hiring and replacement costs 2.Training and lost productivity costs 3.Compensation; including the cost of: - Salary increases - Annual and long–term bonus increases
- The petroleum industry lost almost half a million jobs between 1982 and 2000 (API 2004 survey). The cyclical nature of the industry contributed to increased layoffs while hiring has been at an all time low since the early 1990s. Currently, the average age of an experienced employee in a management or technical position (e.g. petroleum engineer) is approximately 48 to 50 years. The Average Age of a Technical Employee is 48-50 Years As evident in the graph, the impact of workforce reductions is not being addressed from the strategic viewpoint of long-term succession planning. The current domestic workforce composition reveals that the majority of employees are Baby Boomers. The Oil & Gas Industry on the edge of a demographic Cliff.
- 35000/12= 2916.66 = GHC 8749.98130,000/12= 10,833= GHC 32,500
- The high salary levels makes it difficult to employ and pay such highly qualified professionals for the industry.
- 1. The potential of the oil & gas business in Ghana has just began. There is still yet to be found resources both in the inland Voltaian Basin, and the offshore deepwater sedimentary basins.2. Peak oil is a misleading idea. The potential for future oil production depends on the application of technology, economics and sound investment practices3. The long term Impact of the workforce crisis should be addressed by all interested parties in the oil & gas industry to prevent damage in the form of market corrections and diminished domestic energy security.