Environmental impacts of electricmobility and interactions with the electricity            sector in Germany      4th Germ...
OPTUM research project»   Title: “Optimising the environmental benefits of electric vehicles –    An integrated considerat...
What factors determine the environmentalbenefits of EVs?»   Starting points:    »   EVs cause no direct emissions    »   G...
Modelling approach OPTUM                           4
Deriving a market scenario»   Definition of scenario assumptions     »   e.g. technology development, energy prices»   Max...
Electric mobility scenario for 2010-2030»   Scenario is developed within a series of workshops with    representatives fro...
Acceptance of electric vehicles»   Methodological approach:     »   Survey of approx. 1,500 new car buyers in Germany     ...
Simulation of vehicle purchase in 2030Choosing between conventional, battery-electric and plug-in-hybridvehicles100% 90% 8...
Results of acceptance analyses»   Approx. 60 % of users would use electric vehicles, choosing either    PHEV or BEV»   Eng...
Market scenario for electric vehicles                                                                                     ...
Electricity demand of EVs»   Average annual kilometres travelled:     »   Conventional passenger cars: 13,700 km     »   I...
PowerFlex – Functionality of electricity    market model»   Optimisation model which minimises objective function of elect...
German electricity market without EVs     in 2030     100.000                                                             ...
German electricity market with EVs &     load management in 2030     100.000                                              ...
Electricity production for EVs by energy source           Additional electricity production for EVs in 2030               ...
Electricity production for EVs:        GHG emissions                    Specific CO2 emissions for additional electricity ...
GHG balance of a mid-size passenger car in 2030                       200                       180                       ...
Development of kilometres travelledin Germany                                        800                             billi...
GHG balance for passenger carsin Germany                        140                        120                        100 ...
Project findings»   Electric vehicles (BEV & PHEV) can have approx. 15 %    share of car stock in Germany in 2030»   Scena...
Electric mobility as a possible triggerfor a change in paradigm?»   Changed usage characteristics of EVs:     »   Still cu...
Thank you for your attention!                                   Florian Hacker                       Infrastructure & Ente...
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Environmental impacts of electric mobility and interactions with the electricity sector in Germany

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4th German-Japanese Environmental Dialogue Forum
Electric Mobility and Smart Grids: Strategies and Technologies
Tokyo, 17 and 18 November 2011
Florian Hacker, Oeko-Institut e.V., Berlin

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Environmental impacts of electric mobility and interactions with the electricity sector in Germany

  1. 1. Environmental impacts of electricmobility and interactions with the electricity sector in Germany 4th German-Japanese Environmental Dialogue Forum Electric Mobility and Smart Grids: Strategies and Technologies Tokyo, 17 and 18 November 2011 Florian Hacker, Öko-Institut e.V., Berlin 1
  2. 2. OPTUM research project» Title: “Optimising the environmental benefits of electric vehicles – An integrated consideration of vehicle use and the electricity sector in Germany”» Consortium partners: Öko-Institut e.V., ISOE» Funded by: German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety» Duration: 09/2009 – 09/2011» Overall project value: € 782,760» Main goals: » Market potential of electric vehicles (EVs) » Interaction of EVs with electricity market » Effect on GHG emissions of German vehicle stock 2010 - 2030 2
  3. 3. What factors determine the environmentalbenefits of EVs?» Starting points: » EVs cause no direct emissions » GHG balance of EVs is determined by source of electricity generation» Necessary analytical steps: » acceptance of EVs » mobility behaviour » market potential of EVs » interactions with the power plant fleet » electricity demand & GHG emissions 3
  4. 4. Modelling approach OPTUM 4
  5. 5. Deriving a market scenario» Definition of scenario assumptions » e.g. technology development, energy prices» Maximum potential of electric vehicles » Analysis of current usage profiles and mobility patterns» Acceptance of electric vehicles » User survey (conjoint analysis)» Consideration of market development » Diffusion of technological innovations in automotive sector» Market scenario for electric vehicles » Determining new vehicle entry for 2010-2030 » Modelling the passenger car fleet for 2010-2030 5
  6. 6. Electric mobility scenario for 2010-2030» Scenario is developed within a series of workshops with representatives from energy sector & transport sector» Key assumptions: » Segments: BEV up to mid-size segment, PHEV in all segments » Electric range: BEV 160 km, PHEV 50 km » Battery costs: 280 €/kWh (2020), 230€/kWh (2030) » Additional efficiency improvements in PHEV, BEV & CV up to 2030 » Moderate increase in fuel and electricity prices » Charging infrastructure: increase in charging points in private and public areas, increase in charging power » Mobility behaviour: requirements for passenger car usage remain unchanged 6
  7. 7. Acceptance of electric vehicles» Methodological approach: » Survey of approx. 1,500 new car buyers in Germany » Conjoint analysis: Simulation of car purchases based on 8 criteria and 3 propulsion system types » Criteria: motor type, performance, purchase costs, fuel and electricity costs, charging time, electric range, CO2 emissions, parking privileges » Motor type: CV, BEV, PHEV » Combination of parameters in several simulated cycles » Range of example vehicles to choose between» Purchase decisions are realistically simulated based on a combination of different parameters» Significance of different parameters is implicitly determined» Market shares are derived based on different vehicle types 7
  8. 8. Simulation of vehicle purchase in 2030Choosing between conventional, battery-electric and plug-in-hybridvehicles100% 90% 80% 35% 36% 37% 37% 70% 60% CV 50% 41% PHEV 40% 42% 44% BEV 30% 63% 20% 10% 24% 22% 19% 0% Klein Mini City-BEV Small Klein BEV Mid-size Mittel Large Groß Source: OPTUM 8
  9. 9. Results of acceptance analyses» Approx. 60 % of users would use electric vehicles, choosing either PHEV or BEV» Engine type is highly significant – electric motors are regarded as environmentally friendly» Changes to purchase price have lower effect than expected» Consumption costs are important factor in choice of vehicle» Improvements to charging time and electric range lead to significant increase of BEV share – however, almost exclusively at cost of PHEV share» Highly environmentally conscious people with good local transport connections show a high affinity to BEV» People without their own parking spaces tend to show a greater interest in electric vehicles 9
  10. 10. Market scenario for electric vehicles German government targets: 2020: 1 million electric vehicles 2030: 6 million electric vehicles 7Passenger cars in millions PHEV (large) PHEV (mid-size) Passenger cars 2030: 6 PHEV (small) 5,080,000 PHEV BEV (mid-size) 700,000 BEV 5 90,000 City BEV BEV (small) Total: 5,870,000 City-BEV (mini) 4 Passenger cars 2020: 3 473,000 PHEV 57,000 BEV 2 8,000 City BEV Total: 538,000 1 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1 million electric cars Source: OPTUM 10
  11. 11. Electricity demand of EVs» Average annual kilometres travelled: » Conventional passenger cars: 13,700 km » Important: Annual kilometres travelled for BEV are approx. 40 % lower than for CV» Electric driving share: » (City-)BEV: 100 % » PHEV: about 67 %» Electricity demand profiles for electric vehicles: » Electricity demand of BEV and PHEV is simulated in combination with EV fleet based on 60 different vehicle usage profiles » Electricity demand profiles take into account necessary minimum battery level and passenger car usage » Hourly resolved electricity demand varies depending on assumptions for charging infrastructure and charging patterns of passenger car users » Input in POWERFLEX electricity market model is hourly resolved electricity demand 11
  12. 12. PowerFlex – Functionality of electricity market model» Optimisation model which minimises objective function of electricity generation costs and determines merit order Source: OPTUM 12
  13. 13. German electricity market without EVs in 2030 100.000 Wind offshore unused Unused REG: 3.1 % p.a. Wind onshore unused PV unused 80.000 Pumped storage (production) Wind offshore Wind onshore PV 60.000 Run-of-river Imports BiomassMW 40.000 Heavy fuel oil Light fuel oil Natural gas Hard coal 20.000 Lignite Must run power plants Pumped storage (storage) 0 Battery charging EVs Electricity consumption Overall electricity production SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI Thermal and must run power plants -20.000 5-Oct 6-Oct 7-Oct 8-Oct 9-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 13 Source: OPTUM
  14. 14. German electricity market with EVs & load management in 2030 100.000 Wind offshore unused Unused REG: 2.0 % p.a. Wind onshore unused PV unused 80.000 Pumped storage (production) Wind offshore Wind onshore PV 60.000 Run-of-river Imports BiomassMW 40.000 Heavy fuel oil Light fuel oil Natural gas Hard coal 20.000 Lignite Must run power plants Pumped storage (storage) 0 Battery charging EVs Electricity consumption Overall electricity production SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI Thermal and must run power plants -20.000 5-Oct 6-Oct 7-Oct 8-Oct 9-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 14 Source: OPTUM
  15. 15. Electricity production for EVs by energy source Additional electricity production for EVs in 2030 Imports 19 28 4.7 % 18.7 % 76.5 % 98.7 % 85.6 % 108.9 % 96.9 % 108.9 % PV 17 26 15 24 Wind offshore 13 22TWh Wind onshore 11 20 9 18 Run-of-river 7 16 Vegetable oil 5 14 3 12 Solid biomass 1 10 Biogas -1 8 -3 6 Heavy fuel oil -5 4 Light fuel oil -7 2 TWh -9 0 Nuclear power -11 -2 Natural gas w/o LM* w/ LM-Biogas w/ LM-PV w/o LM-Wind w/o LM-PV w/ LM w/o LM-Biogas w/ LM-Wind Hard coal Lignite Pumped storage (production) Source: OPTUM 15
  16. 16. Electricity production for EVs: GHG emissions Specific CO2 emissions for additional electricity production in 2030 1 CO2 overall CO2 overall 0,8 0,752 0,713 0,6kg CO2/kWh 0,4 0,2 0,062 0,080 0,042 0,046 0,017 0 -0,012 -0,2 w/o LM* w/ LM-PV w/ LM-Biogas w/ LM w/o LM-Wind w/ LM-Wind w/o LM-PV w/o LM-Biogas *LM = Load management Source: OPTUM 16
  17. 17. GHG balance of a mid-size passenger car in 2030 200 180 160 140CO2 emissions [g/km] 120 100 80 indirect 60 direct 40 20 0 CV PHEV BEV PHEV BEV PHEV BEV PHEV BEV Without add. REG With add. wind Add. biogas German electricity plants plants production mix 2030 (752 g/kWh) (17 g/kWh) (46 g/kWh) (490 g/kWh) Source: OPTUM» Note: GHG emissions of additional electricity production for EVs are considered 17
  18. 18. Development of kilometres travelledin Germany 800 billions 700 600Kilometres travelled [km] 500 PHEV (petrol) PHEV (electricity) 400 BEV (electricity) 300 CV (diesel) CV (petrol) 200 100 0 2010 2020 2030 Source: OPTUM Share of total kilometres travelled in 2030: • 8 % kilometres travelled with electricity • 11 % kilometres travelled by BEV & PHEV overall 18
  19. 19. GHG balance for passenger carsin Germany 140 120 100 GHG emissions [mt/a] 90 87 80 82 60 40 Reference scenario Electric mobility scenario (without add. REG) 20 Electric mobility scenario (with add. REG) 0 2010 2020 2030 Source: OPTUM » Note: GHG emissions of electric vehicles are determined by the additional electricity production for EVs (see PowerFlex) 19
  20. 20. Project findings» Electric vehicles (BEV & PHEV) can have approx. 15 % share of car stock in Germany in 2030» Scenario without additional REG in 2030: » Electric vehicles have similar emission levels to comparable conventional vehicles» Therefore: » Electric vehicles can only make a positive contribution to climate protection if additional renewable capacities are made available.» “Surplus” renewable electricity is by no means sufficient in Germany in 2030 to cover electricity demand of EVs.» Load management is required for an integration of electric vehicles that is beneficial to the electricity market & the environment. 20
  21. 21. Electric mobility as a possible triggerfor a change in paradigm?» Changed usage characteristics of EVs: » Still currently regarded as a barrier to their market success » Starting point for new mobility concepts and a changed “mobility culture” of the future? » It is conceivable that the effects of electric mobility on future mobility will be much greater.» Embedding electric vehicles in alternative mobility concepts could have large potentials for a more sustainable transport sector.» Because: Only a combination of technology, increased renewable power generation and changed mobility behaviour will enable the long-term climate protection targets to be achieved and ensure sustainable mobility in the future. 21
  22. 22. Thank you for your attention! Florian Hacker Infrastructure & Enterprises Division Berlin office Schicklerstraße 5-7 10179 Berlin f.hacker@oeko.de www.oeko.deIllustration: Drushba Pankow 22
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