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After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models
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After One Hundred Years of Solitude: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models

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My master’s thesis drafts the futures of Finnish trade magazines with Delphi, scenarios and business model innovation. Feel free to download the thesis here: http://bit.ly/trademag

My master’s thesis drafts the futures of Finnish trade magazines with Delphi, scenarios and business model innovation. Feel free to download the thesis here: http://bit.ly/trademag

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  • 1. AFTER ONE HUNDRED YEARS OF SOLITUDE: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models<br />A Master’s Thesis presentation<br />Johannes Koponen2.3.2011<br />johannes.koponen@gmail.com<br />
  • 2. AGENDA<br />
  • 3. Goal and research problem<br />Business Models: a theoretical approach<br />Trade Magazine Business Models<br />Scenario<br />Out of the Frying Pan<br />Empirical research process<br />Scenario<br />Together We Can<br />Scenario<br /> Rip ’em Apart<br />Conclusions<br />
  • 4. GOAL<br />
  • 5. Foresight about futures strategic business landscape<br />In fast-moving environments companies need mission, vision and strategy to keep the focus<br />However, vision – where we are going – is not enough. Companies also need insight about where everyone else is going<br />Everyone else meaning not only competitors but also all stakeholders that have a say in shaping the future<br />
  • 6. RESEARCH PROBLEM<br />How different media business environment futures are <br />related to the Finnish trade magazine business model?<br />
  • 7. BUSINESS MODEL<br />
  • 8. Reveals the value creation and delivery logic of a specific company<br />Is built from choices and the consequences of these choices, linked by a hypothesis<br />It is useful if consequences form self-reinforcing loops<br />Sterman 2000, Picard 1989, Doyle 2002, Casadesus-MasanelljaRicart 2007; 2009; 2010 and Teece 2010; Giesecke et al. 2010; Fetscherin &amp; Knolmayer 2004; Aaltonen 2010; Itami and Nishino 2009; Wirtz et al. 2010; McGrath 2010)<br />Loops typically have certain amount of intrinsic delay<br />Business models are highly contextual, and at the same time different business models might fit to a same situation<br />Business models are representations that are constructed in a representation of an environment (current or future)<br />
  • 9. TRADE MAGAZINE BUSINESS<br />
  • 10. 1) Dual market model<br />According to sources (esim. Sterman 2000, Picard 1989, Doyle 2002, Casadesus-MasanelljaRicart 2007; 2009; 2010 and Teece 2010)<br />2) Economies of scale and scope<br />Trade magazine business model: Seven self-reinforcing loops that create the growth and diminishing of trade media business<br />And taking into account the nature of the reference organization<br />3) Media company dominates in the value network<br />
  • 11. 1) Dual markets<br />
  • 12. 2) Economies of scale and scope<br />
  • 13. 3) Market powers<br />
  • 14. STRATEGIC LANDSCAPE<br />
  • 15.
  • 16. &quot;What does he say?” he asked. <br />“He’s very sad,” Ursula answered, “because he thinks that you’re going to die.” <br />“Tell him,” the colonel said, smiling, “that a person doesn’t die when he should but when he can.&quot; <br />— Gabriel Garcia Marquez (One Hundred Years of Solitude)<br />
  • 17. RESEARCH PROCESS<br />
  • 18. Topics to Delphi panel from an earlier media scenario research (Giesecke et al. 2010)<br />Delphi: 8 person iterative expert interview with two argument rounds<br />Current trade magazine business model from literature and with discussions<br />Based on Delphi opinions, futuribles were constructed (argument-based single events in the future)<br />The functionality of the current business model was analyzed in each scenario environment <br />Three scenarios were constructed using the Field Anomaly Relaxation analysis<br />Intrinsic coherence of the futuribles were analyzed with Field Anomaly Relaxation analysis<br />In addition, novel business opportunities were analyzed in each scenario<br />
  • 19. SCENARIO:1) OUT OF THE FRYING PAN<br />
  • 20. Delphi panel was worried about the advertisement revenues<br />Another fear was that media companies lose the direct customer relationship<br />What happens if both threats are realized?<br />
  • 21.
  • 22. New business opportunity from lack of trust within the media field: <br />
  • 23. SCENARIO:2) TOGETHER WE CAN<br />
  • 24. Socialization of media was a very important topic in Delphi interviews<br />Can inter-expert communities create enough value to themselves?<br />Communities challenge the power within the established media<br />
  • 25.
  • 26. There are lucrative business opportunities in facilitated communities<br />
  • 27. SCENARIO:3) RIP ’EM APART<br />
  • 28. Digital content is easily tailored. <br />How could a media company compete against easily deliverable and completely personated media service?<br />Tailoring challenges the economies of scale<br />
  • 29.
  • 30. It is possible to change the business system so that it supports hyperlocalized content production<br />
  • 31. SCENARIO CONCLUSIONS<br />
  • 32.
  • 33. Fascinated by the discovery, Aureliano, read aloud without skipping the chanted encyclicals that Melquiades himself had made Arcadio listen to and that were in reality the prediction of his execution - - -<br />— Gabriel Garcia Marquez (One Hundred Years of Solitude)<br />
  • 34. REMEMBER FROM THIS PRESENTATION<br />
  • 35. There are at least three grave threats to trade magazine business models<br />New business opportunities do not seem lucrative in the beginning<br />(when environment changes, the self-reinforcing loops turn to vicious circles)<br />(but it is easier to try and fail now than have a must succeed situation later)<br />There are many business opportunities in professional-specified media markets<br />Using futures studies methodologies in business model assertion and innovation is useful<br />(most of them are found from the outside of the current business field)<br />(This research used Delphi and scenarios)<br />
  • 36. Images with Creative Commons licence:<br />Darkness Falls on Gastown By ecstaticist<br />Shell by The Wandering Angel<br />Milan Train Station at Midnight By Stuck in Customs<br />Train Station By nolifebeforecoffee<br />Wallancarra By Garry - www.visionandimagination.com<br />Lost in Structuration (VII) : Ultra Design Solitude By Gilderic<br />Lost In Structuration (X) : Oblique Chaos by Gilderic<br />Lost In Structuration (XIX) : Leaving or Staying by Gilderic<br />Lost In Structuration (i) : by Gilderic<br />Train : by ELIOTH<br />When it all blows over By davebluedevil<br />Feel free to ask questions or give feedback<br />johannes.koponen@gmail.com<br />

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