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Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
Environmental Outlook
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Environmental Outlook

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  • 1. OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of InactionMarch 15, 2012
  • 2. Environmental Outlook to 2050: Introduction What is it? • Projects demographic and economic trends to 2050, and their impacts on the environment without more ambitious policies = the “Baseline” scenario • The “Baseline” scenario is… – not an acceptable future – calls for urgent action now to avoid the costs and consequences of inaction • The Outlook examines policies that could change that picture for the better (via policy simulations) • Joint economic-environment modelling by the OECD and the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 2
  • 3. Environmental Outlook to 2050 Structure of the Report• Executive Summary• 1. Introduction• 2. Socioeconomic Development• 3. Climate Change• 4. Biodiversity• 5. Freshwater• 6. Health and Environment• Annex on the Modelling Framework 3
  • 4. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: World economy will nearly quadruple by 2050 Projections for real gross domestic product: Baseline, 2010-2050 OECD BRIICS RoW US China India 350 000 Billions of constant 2010 USD 300 000 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Note: values using constant 2010 purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates. 4 Source: (OECD, 2012) OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from ENV-Linkages.
  • 5. CLIMATE CHANGE: GHG emissions to increase by 50% by 2050 GHG emissions by region, Baseline OECD AI Russia & rest of AI Rest of BRIICS ROW 90 GtCO2e 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 5 Source: (OECD, 2012) OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from ENV-Linkages.
  • 6. CLIMATE CHANGE:Global temperature to increase by 3-6°C by 2100 CO2 atmospheric concentrations Source: (OECD, 2012) OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection using IMAGE model suite 6
  • 7. CLIMATE CHANGE: Human and economic costs of more extremeweather events, crops & infrastructure at risk, etc. Change in annual temperature between 1990 and 2050 Source: (OECD, 2012). OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from 7 IMAGE model suite
  • 8. HEALTH & ENV : Urban air pollution to become the top environmental cause of premature deaths by 2050 Global premature deaths from selected environmental risks: Baseline, 2010 to 2050 Particulate MatterGround-level ozone Unsafe Water 2010 Supply and Sanitation* 2030 2050Indoor Air Pollution Malaria 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Deaths (millions of people) 8 Source: (OECD, 2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2005; output from IMAGE
  • 9. HEALTH & ENV: Urban air pollution is already worse than WHO safe levels in most citiesPM10 concentration in major cities: Baseline, 2010-2050 South Asia* Africa China 2010Indonesia India 2030 Russia 2050 Brazil OECD 0 20 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 WHO Air Quality Guideline μg/m3 * The region South Asia excludes India 9 Source: (OECD, 2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from IMAGE
  • 10. WATER: Global water demand to increase by 55% by 2050Global water demand: Baseline scenario Km3 6 000 5 000 electricity Rapidly growing 4 000 manufacturing water demand from 3 000 cities, industry and livestock energy suppliers will 2 000 domestic challenge water for 1 000 irrigation to 2050. irrigation 0 2000 2050 World 10 Source: (OECD, 2012), OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
  • 11. WATER: In 2050, 4 out of 10 people will live in river basins under severe water stress 2000 (6.1 Bn) 2050 (9.2 Bn)People under 3.9no or low 3.2 Bn 3.2 Bn Bnwater stressPeople under 1.3 1.3 1.4mediumwater stress Nearly half of the world People under 1.6 population is projected  3.9severe water to live under severe  Bnstress water stress in 2050 = 200MM OECD BRIICS Rest of the world20002050
  • 12. WATER: Water pollution from urban sewage to increase 3-fold Nitrogen effluents from wastewater: baseline 12 Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
  • 13. WATER: 1.4 billion people still without access to sanitation in 2050 Population lacking access to… …improved water source 2 000 …sanitation facilities 1 800 OECD BRIICS RoW1 100 1 6001 000 1 400 900 800 1 200 700 1 000 600 500 800 400millions of people 600 300 400 200 100 200 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 1990 2010 2030 2050 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 1990 2010 2030 2050 Urban Rural Urban Rural 13 Source: (OECD, 2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from IMAGE
  • 14. BIODIVERSITY: Global biodiversity to decline by a further 10% by 2050 Terrestrial mean species abundance (MSA) by region: Baseline 2010 2020 2030 2050 80% 70% Mean species abundance 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% RoW America World Europe Japan/Korea Russia Australia/NZ Southern Brazil Indonesia China South Asia North Africa 14 Source: (OECD, 2012), OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
  • 15. BIODIVERSITY: Climate change is the fastest growing driver of loss Effects of different pressures on terrestrial MSA: Baseline 100% Infr+Encr+Frag 90% Climate Change Nitrogen 80% Former Land-UseMSA Forestry 70% Pasture Bioenergy 60% Food Crop Remaining MSA0- 50% 2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 OECD BRIICS RoW World RoW = rest of the world. Infra+Encr+Frag = infrastructure, encroachment and ecosystem fragmentation 15 Source: (OECD, 2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from IMAGE
  • 16. POLICY ACTION: Act now – because delay is costly Delaying climate action would increase the global cost of GHG mitigation by nearly 50% by 2050, and could make it unaffordable Real income in 2050 (% deviation from baseline) Optimal mitigation: Cancun pledges: 450 ppm Core 450ppm Delayed action 450 ppm delayed action 0%-1%-2%-3%-4%-5%-6%-7%-8%-9%-10% Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, output from ENV-Linkages model 16
  • 17. POLICY ACTION: What policies do we need?• Make pollution more costly than greener alternatives – e.g. through environmental taxes and emissions trading schemes. These can also generate much- needed fiscal revenues.• Value and price the natural assets and ecosystem services – e.g. through water pricing, which is an effective way of allocating scarce water; payments for ecosystem services, natural park entrance charges.• Remove environmentally harmful subsidies – an important step in pricing resources and pollution properly (e.g. to fossil fuels, irrigation water). 17
  • 18. POLICY ACTION: Environmental taxes Revenues from environmentally related taxes in per cent of GDP11. Includes: taxes on energy products, vehicles, pollutants and natural resources, but Excludes: royalties andtaxes on oil and gas extraction. Source: OECD-EEA database on instruments used for environmental policy, wwww.oecd.org/env/policies/database
  • 19. The importance of pricing: water conservation (% ownership against water fee structure) Source: OECD (2011), Greening Household Behaviour: The Role of Public Policy
  • 20. POLICY ACTION:Why make CO2 cheaper if you’re trying to make it scarcer?Impacts on GDP in 2050 of unilateral phase-out of fossil fuel consumer subsidies in emerging and developing countries (% deviation from baseline) (1) Middle East & Northern Africa (2) Other Asian, African and Latin American Emerging economies Source : OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; OECD ENV-Linkages Model ; based IEA subsidies data for the year 2009
  • 21. POLICY ACTION: Fossil fuel support in OECD countries Note: This graph is based on an arithmetic sum of the individual support measures identified for a sample of 21 OECD countries, i.e. the 24 OECD countries included in the inventory net of those countries for which estimates have not been collected yet (Chile, Iceland and Luxembourg). It reflects the value of tax relief measured under each jurisdiction’s benchmark tax treatment. The estimates do not take into account interactions that may occur if multiple measures were to be removed at the same time Source: OECD (2011), Inventory of Estimated Budgetary Support and Tax Expenditures for Fossil Fuels.
  • 22. POLICY ACTION: What policies do we need?• Devise effective regulations and standards – e.g. to safeguard human health and environmental integrity – for promoting energy efficiency• Encourage green innovation – e.g. by making polluting production and consumption modes more expensive, and investing in public support for basic R&D – e.g. attracting private sector investment• Facilitate better consumer choices – e.g. through energy and water efficiency labelling, organic food labels, information, etc. 22
  • 23. POLICY ACTION: Clear policy signals are needed to drive innovation Patenting activity pre- and post-Kyoto Protocol’s adoption (3-year moving average, indexed on 1990=1.0) Source: OECD (2010), The Invention and Transfer of Environmental Technologies
  • 24. POLICY ACTION: Recognition & Use of Energy-Efficiency Labels Source: OECD (2011), Greening Household Behaviour: The Role of Public Policy
  • 25. POLICY ACTION: Mainstreaming Green Growth• Maximise synergies and co-benefits – e.g. tackling local air pollution can cut GHG emissions while reducing the economic burden of health problems – e.g. climate policy can also help protect biodiversity if GHG emissions are reduced by avoiding deforestation.• Integrating environmental objectives in economic and sectoral policies – e.g. energy, agriculture, transport, development – ensuring coherence with policies in these areas can have greater impacts than environmental policies alone. 25
  • 26. More Information….www.oecd.org/environment/outlookto2050

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