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Post2015 mazria(architecture2030)roadmap zero emissions ccxg gf march2014 handout

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  • 1. 9/27/2013 - No more than one trillion metric tons of carbon could be burned and gases released into the atmosphere if planetary warming is to be kept below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above the level of preindustrial times. 9/27/2013 - It’s still possible to avoid the worst climate impacts if global emissions to peak by 2020 at the latest (and the earlier the better), with substantial declines in emissions afterwards. One trillion tons 2020
  • 2. 1950 0 1 o C 2000 2200215021002050 RCP8.5 Business-as-usual 2.2 trillion tons carbon 3 o C 2 o C 8 o C 7 o C 6 o C 5 o C 4 o C RCP6.0 emissions peak 2080 1.6 trillion tons carbon RCP4.5 emissions peak 2040-50 1.3 trillion tons carbon IncreaseinAverageGlobalTemperature Global Temperature Projections for various RCP Scenarios Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2013, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2013
  • 3. 1950 0 1 o C 2000 2200215021002050 3 o C 2 o C 8 o C 7 o C 6 o C 5 o C 4 o C RCP2.6 0.8 trillion tons carbon emissions peak 2020 IncreaseinAverageGlobalTemperature Global Temperature Projections for various RCP Scenarios Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2013, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2013 RCP8.5 Business-as-usual 2.1 trillion tons carbon RCP6.0 emissions peak 2080 1.4 trillion tons carbon RCP4.5 emissions peak 2040-50 1.2 trillion tons carbon
  • 4. THE OPPORTUNITY Urban environments emit 75% of all global GHGs
  • 5. will be constructed in cities worldwide. of new and rebuilt buildings Sources: UN Habitat, State of the World’s Cities 2010/2011; McKinsey Global Institute. THE OPPORTUNITY 80 billion m2 (900 billion ft2) By 2030, over
  • 6. Sources: UN Habitat, State of the World’s Cities 2010/2011; McKinsey Global Institute. An area equal to 60% of the entire building stock of the world, 60% with energy and emissions patterns locked-in for 80 to 120 years!
  • 7. China US / Canada Other Emerging %ShareofGrowth 30% 20% 10% Global Floor Space Growth (2012 – 2030) Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Urban World: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, 2012. India Latin America Middle East Africa 38% 15% 12% 9% 9% 9% China • US/Canada 53% Western Europe Other Developed 4% 4%
  • 8. 2015 2020 COP 21 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 +5% to -15% -70% to -85% -55% to -70% -35% to -55% -15% to -35% ZERO ROADMAP TO ZERO EMISSIONS CO2 EMISSIONS TARGETS (baseline 2015) -85% to -100%
  • 9. 1. Developed Countries (annual) Renovate 1% - 2% of building stock 50% energy reduction 2. Developing Countries (annual) Renovate .5% - 1% of building stock 50% energy reduction 4. Establish Financing Facility (Developing Countries) Finance items 2 and 3 above. 3. Build New to the Following Targets (All Countries) 70% energy reduction in 2015 80% energy reduction in 2020 90% energy reduction in 2025 ZNE in 2030 ROADMAP TO ZERO EMISSIONS
  • 10. 2020 emissions peak Reduction targets range RCP2.6 1500 2000 1000 CO2EMISSIONS (millionmetrictons) 0 500 208020702060205020402030 ROADMAP 20/80: Building Sector Zero CO2 Emissions in 2080 20202000 2010 emissions 2000 - 2015 2015 Source: Architecture 2030: Data adapted from the World Bank CO2 emissions from residential buildings and commercial and public services; and the EIA International Energy Outlook 2013. 2500 ROADMAP Global Building Sector 3000 3500
  • 11. PROGRESS?
  • 12. 2007 Sec. 433 of EISA Fossil Fuel Reduction 55% - 2010 65% - 2015 80% - 2020 90% - 2025 100% - 2030
  • 13. Seattle
  • 14. Zero Net Energy for Residential Buildings by 2020 Zero Net Energy for Commercial Buildings by 2030 CALIFORNIA’S COMMITMENT
  • 15. Unique private/public partnerships !   Property owners and managers !   Local governments !   Business/community stakeholders
  • 16. •  SEATTLE   •  CLEVELAND   •  PITTSBURGH   •  LOS  ANGELES   •  DENVER   TORONTO   DALLAS   DETROIT   FT.  WORTH   PHOENIX   SAN  ANTONIO   SAN  FRANCISCO   WASHINGTON,  DC   SYRACUSE   ITHICA   ANN  ARBOR   ATLANTA   ALBUQUERQUE   STAMFORD  
  • 17. EIA AEO 2013 48 44 36 (908 Mtoe) 52 QBtu Quadrillion Btu Source: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (EIA AEO)! U.S. Building Operations 2005 - 2030 -16.8 QBtu 40 (1008 Mtoe) EIA AEO 2014 (early release) 310 – 1000MW 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 56 (1412 Mtoe)
  • 18. EIA AEO 2013 48 44 36 (908 Mtoe) 52 QBtu Quadrillion Btu Source: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (EIA AEO)! U.S. Building Operations 2005 - 2030 -16.8 QBtu 40 (1008 Mtoe) EIA AEO 2013 best available demand technology EIA AEO 2014 (early release) -6.9 QBtu 310 – 1000MW 128 – 1000MW 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 56 (1412 Mtoe)
  • 19. EIA AEO 2013 48 44 36 (908 Mtoe) 52 QBtu Quadrillion Btu Source: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (EIA AEO)! U.S. Building Operations 2005 - 2030 -16.8 QBtu 40 (1008 Mtoe) 2013 $4.61 Trillion $560 Billion $1.94 Trillion EIA AEO 2013 best available demand technology EIA AEO 2014 (early release) -6.9 QBtu 310 – 1000MW 128 – 1000MW 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 56 (1412 Mtoe)
  • 20. Sustainable / Zero Carbon URBANIZATION
  • 21. Step 2. Step 1. GETTING TO ZERO CARBON ZERO CARBON Information Technology
  • 22. Renewables 20%-30% Step 1. Step 2. GETTING TO ZERO CARBON ZERO CARBON Design & Planning • Sustainable • Adaptable 70%-80% (no cost / low cost)
  • 23. INFORMATION GAP • Highly technical • Compartmentalized • Limited applicability • Limited audience • Inaccessible format
  • 24. Bridge the GAP • Global in scope • Local in application • User friendly / visual • Freely accessible • Interconnected across all scales • Mitigation / adaptation
  • 25. REGION CITY / TOWN DISTRICT SITE BUILDING Bridge the GAP 2030 Palette www.2030palette.org

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