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Dellink (oecd) circle ccxg global forum march2014
 

Dellink (oecd) circle ccxg global forum march2014

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CIRCLE: Projecting environmental feedbacks on economic growth

CIRCLE: Projecting environmental feedbacks on economic growth

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    Dellink (oecd) circle ccxg global forum march2014 Dellink (oecd) circle ccxg global forum march2014 Presentation Transcript

    • CIRCLE: PROJECTING ENVIRONMENTAL FEEDBACKS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH Rob Dellink Environment Directorate, OECD CCXG Global Forum 18 March 2014
    • • Two key objectives: – Quantify how changes in environmental quality, climate change, degradation and scarcity of natural resources affect the economy, and ultimately prospects for long- term growth (costs of inaction) – Assess the benefits, as well as trade-offs, associated with policy responses to these environmental challenges (benefits of policy action) • Regional and sectoral quantitative approach where possible, coupled with more general insights where needed 2 CIRCLE Objectives
    • 3 Modelling track Climate change Air pollution Land-water-energy nexus Water Biodiversity and ecosystems Resource scarcity Scoping track Project themes and tracks
    • Climate change impacts and damages • Coastal land losses and damages to capital Sea level rise • Changes in morbidity and demand for healthcare Health • Changes in productivity of production sectors Ecosystems • Changes in agricultural productivity Crop yields • Changes in productivity of tourism services Tourism flows • Changes in the demand for energy from cooling and heating Energy demand • Changes in catchment Fisheries • Extreme weather events, water stress, catastrophic risks, … Not included 4
    • -4.0% -3.5% -3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Global GDP impacts (% change wrt no-damages baseline) Likely uncertainty range equilibrium climate sensitivity (1.5°C - 4.5°C) 5 Global assessment -4.0% -3.5% -3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Global GDP impacts (% change wrt no-damages baseline) Likely uncertainty range equilibrium climate sensitivity (1.5°C - 4.5°C) Wider uncertainty range equilibrium climate sensitivity (1°C - 6°C) Central projection -4.0% -3.5% -3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Global GDP impacts (% change wrt no-damages baseline) Likely uncertainty range equilibrium climate sensitivity (1.5°C - 4.5°C) Wider uncertainty range equilibrium climate sensitivity (1°C - 6°C) Central projection Note: Preliminary results using ENV-Linkages model; not to be cited or quoted
    • 6 Sectoral results (central projection) -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% OECD America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Rest of Europe and Asia Latin America Middle East & North Africa South & South- East Asia Sub-Saharan Africa World Global GDP impact (% change wrt no-damages baseline, 2060) Agriculture Energy intensive industries Other industries Services GDP Note: Preliminary results using ENV-Linkages model; not to be cited or quoted
    • • Post-2060 stylised assessment reveals: – GDP losses remain for at least a century – Substantial increase in risk of much larger damages • Further work needed to … – … expand the quality of the calibration, esp. agriculture – … expand the range of impacts (water, extreme weather, …) – … look at large-scale disruptions / catastrophic risks: unable to quantify but may potentially be larger than incremental damages – … do more thorough uncertainty analysis – … integrate with other CIRCLE themes – … assess benefits of policy action (adaptation & mitigation) Placing results into context 7
    • THANK YOU! For more information: www.oecd.org/environment/indicators-modelling-outlooks/CIRCLE.htm www.oecd.org/environment/modelling
    • • Baseline – OECD@100 baseline available • Climate change – Background report (Prof. Sue Wing) completed – Collaboration with FEEM to model climate damages – Contribution to OECD@100, NAEC • Air pollution – Collaboration with IIASA and PBL – Work on emissions in ENV-Linkages, planning scoping work on health impacts and feedbacks to economy • Land-water-energy nexus – Collaboration with PBL 9 Current status: modelling track
    • • Biodiversity and ecosystems – Scoping work started with consultant Anil Markandya • Water – Scoping work started on water stress with consultant Thomas Hertel – Still need to scope water pollution and to identify delineation with nexus analysis • Natural resources – Collaboration with LSE established for work on specific case studies 10 Current status: scoping track
    • 11 Shares of selected impacts Agriculture Ecosystems Energy Fisheries Health Sea level rise Tourism World damages 2035 Agriculture Ecosystems Energy Fisheries Health Sea level rise Tourism World damages 2060 Note: Preliminary results using ENV-Linkages model; not to be cited or quoted
    • 12 Regional results (central projection) -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Regional GDP impacts (% change wrt no-damages baseline) OECD Pacific Rest of Europe & Asia OECD Europe Latin America OECD America World Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East & North Africa South & South - East Asia
    • 13 Unilateral regional effects (central proj.) -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% OECD America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Rest of Europe and Asia Latin America Middle East & North Africa South & South- East Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Regional GDP impacts (% change wrt no-damages baseline) 'Unilateral' impact Total impact Note: Preliminary results using ENV-Linkages model; not to be cited or quoted
    • 14 Stylised analysis post-2060 (AD-RICE) -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Global GDP impacts (% change wrt no-damage baseline) Likely uncertainty range (Business as Usual) Likely uncertainty range (Committed by 2060) Central projection (Business as Usual) Central projection (Committed by 2060) -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Global GDP impacts (% change wrt no-damage baseline) Likely uncertainty range (Business as Usual) Likely uncertainty range (Committed by 2060) Central projection (Business as Usual) Central projection (Committed by 2060)
    • 15 Stylised analysis post-2060 (AD-RICE) -10% -9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Global GDP impacts (% change wrt no-damage baseline) Likely uncertainty range (Business as Usual) Wider uncertainty range (Business as Usual) Central projection (Business as Usual) Central projection (no adaptation) Central projection (Weitzman damages) -10% -9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Global GDP impacts (% change wrt no-damage baseline) Likely uncertainty range (Business as Usual) Wider uncertainty range (Business as Usual) Central projection (Business as Usual) Central projection (no adaptation) Central projection (Weitzman damages)