1. OECD Development Centre
Recent Research
经合组织发展中心的最近研究成果
Development Research Centre of the State Council
Beijing, June 26, 2013
Mario Pezzini
Director, OECD Development Centre
2. Recent research work at OECD Development
Centre 经合组织发展中心的最近学术研究成果
Related to the 4 flagship publications of the Development Centre
3. Shifting wealth 全球财富转移
The organising theme of a major flagship –
The Perspectives on Global Development
主要出版物之一“全球发展展望”的中心题目
•.2011, 2012 now: 3rd edition
•. Main message of PGD 2013: overcoming the middle income trap
will imply the need for active innovation policy.
•跨越中等收入陷阱的重点是采取刺激创新的一系列的政策
4. SW = China+
The world’s economic centre of gravity, Mass, growth, duration => SW
1980, 2008, 2050
The world’s economic centre of gravity, • In 1980, the global economy‟s centre
1980–2007 (black) and extrapolated, at three-year intervals of gravity was mid-Atlantic
• In 2050: between India and China
• Economic centre of gravity will shift
from its 1980 location 9,300 km, East
• China + India = 40% of global
labour force
• China has superior double-digit
growth since > 30 years
• „BRICs, Eagles, GGGs‟
Source: D. Quah, Global Economic Policy, Vo.2.1., Jan 2011
5. SW = China+
China India
% of world GDP % of world GDP
14% 14%
12% 12%
10% 10%
8% 8%
6% 6%
4% 4%
2% 2%
0% 0%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Market Exchange Rate PPP Exchange Rate Market Exchange Rate PPP Exchange Rate
6. China has successfully diversified its economy and
is moving ahead in the value chain
OECD DEV used the product space method to
compare “connectivity” (proximity of export
profile to high value-added products) and
“capabilities” (diversified exports not produced
by others)
采用产品空间方法测算世界各国的”连通性” 与“技能”
7. Connectivity (proximity of export profile to high value
products) – Asia 连通性(更多产品趋于更高的附加值)
•Larger countries, even
THA, go further in
connectivity.
•CHN, IND are outliers, the
highest levels of
connectivity
•KOR early gains in
connectivity are stopped
relatively early in the
process. TWN less so.
•Overall, this group has
reached the area of
diminishing returns.
8. Capabilities (diversified exports of
goods not produced by others) – Asia
• China: (dark blue line)
Start already with a high
value, substantial gains in
relative capabilities only
from 1990 onwards
reached world average. world
average
•India: slow progress in
capabilities
•Indonesia: rapid
progress, but low starting
point
•Thailand: rapid progress,
approached world
average capabilities
9. Capabilities – Asia
• Structural transformation
occurs concomitantly with
increases in capabilities. world
average
• Again, note the high
starting point of Korea and
Singapore and the
substantial above average
capability measure in 2008.
10. Capabilities – Latin America
• In general below-
average
performance in
Latin America.
• The exception world
being Mexico (high average
starting value) and
slow increase
across time) and
the strongly
diversifying Brazil
(gradual increase in
capability ranking
over time).
11. Capabilities – Central America
• Substantially below
average performance
has improved in
recent years. world
average
•The case of CRI:
despite a high
degree of export
orientation,
capabilities are not
particularly high
12. Input-output analysis – China’s
changing role
• During the 10 years of 1995-2005 an
increasing degree of integration with Asian
markets (as suppliers)
13. The rise of China in global supply chains as a dominant supplier
中国作为全球供应链的关键供给方
投入产出表分析
亚洲各国中间商品和服务的主要目的地 Major trade partners for Asia’s intermediate exports in goods and services
-If a country’s intermediate exports (in both goods and services) to a
particular partner country exceed a given threshold percentage of that Source: OECD Input-Output
country’s total intermediate exports (15% or 20% in our exercise), we Database, March 2010; IDE-JETRO
Asian International Input-Output
Database 2006; OECD Bilateral Trade
consider such a trade node as a dominant link. Database, March 2010; OECD Trade
in Services, January 2010.
14. China’s ties with ASEAN- business cycles increasingly
synchronised
a) Indonesia中国和东盟的连接 – 经济周期 b) Malaysia
Business cycles: composite leading indicators of Southeast
Asia, China and India (100=threshold point)
a) ASEAN average b) China
c) Philippines d) Singapore
e) Thailand f) India
Note: ASEAN average includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Singapore and Thailand.
- The OECD Development Centre’s Asian Business Cycle
Indicators show co-movement of the business cycles of
ASEAN and China.
Source: OECD This Quarter in Asia, Vol. 8, June,
2012
15. Impact of global uncertainty on China based on historical
decomposition of the output gap
中国潜在和实际产出量的差的分解
Historical decomposition of output gap in Asia in 2009-11 (%)
b) China
a) Indonesia
-The impact of global
uncertainty (represented
as a demand shock) has
been limited in China.
- The result suggests
that in China there is
room to improve
potential output by
enhancing productivity
through appropriate
d)
c) Philippines
India structural policies, as, in
2011, technology shocks
had a negative impact
on output gap.
- Furthermore, the effect
of monetary policy
shocks prove that
monetary policies have
been relatively well
managed so far.
Source: OECD Development Centre, MPF-SAEO
2011/12.
16. Relative poverty in
developing countries发展中国家的相对贫穷率
• Calculate relative poverty lines for emerging
economies (set at 40, 50 and 60% of median
income or consumption)
• How? Based on parametric estimations of
Lorenz curves for country/year observations
罗伦斯曲线
• Why? Because relative poverty lines are closer
to national lines, yet correspond to the same
concept improvement vis-à-vis dollar-a-day
for international comparisons
17. Relative poverty rates across the world
世界各国的相对贫穷率
%
Living below 60% median
35 Living below 50% median
Living below 40% median
30
Living below $1.25 PPP/day
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: PGD 2010, OECD and Garroway and de Laiglesia (forthcoming)
18. Relative poverty flat or increasing
despite large falls in absolute poverty
Brazil China
$1.25/day Relative poverty (50% of the median)
$1.25/day 50% of the median
30% 90%
80%
25% 70%
20% 60%
50%
15%
40%
10% 30%
20%
5%
10%
0% 0%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
19. Social Institutions and Gender Index
Social Institutions and Gender Index 2012
Restricted
Discriminatory Restricted Restricted
Son Bias Resources
Family Code Physical Integrity Civil Liberties
and Entitlements
• Legal Age of • Violence against • Access to land
Marriage women • Access to bank
• Missing women loans and other • Access to public
• Early marriage • FGM
forms of credit space
• Fertility
• Parental • Reproductive
preferences • Access to • Political voice
authority integrity
property other
• Inheritance than land
The Social Institutions and Gender Index measures discrimination
against women across five areas for non OECD countries
20. 2012 SIGI: by region
2012 SIGI results by region
Latin America and Europe and Middle East and Sub Saharan
the Caribbean East Asia Pacific Central Asia South Asia North Africa Africa
0
Argentina
1= high discrimination 0=low discrimination
0.1 FYR Macedonia South Africa
Philippines Morocco
0.2
Nicaragua Nepal
China Average
Laos
0.3 Top ranking
Bottom ranking
Azerbaijan Afghanistan
0.4 China
0.5 Yemen
0.6 Mali
0.7
The 2012 SIGI ranks China 42 out of 86 countries.
In the East Asia and Pacific region China ranked 6 out of
9 countries.
21. Gender inequality in China
• China shows the strongest performance in
Restricted Physical Integrity sub-index
(ranked 5 out of 99)
– Strong legal framework to combat violence against women and good access
to contraception for women.
– Only 2% of women have an unmet need for family planning.
• China shows the weakest performance in
the Son Bias (ranked 88 out of 95).
– Strong social norms of son preference exacerbated by one-child policy.
– Severe imbalance in sex-ratios - census data show that more than 40
million Chinese women were „missing‟ in 2000.
– Data on the share of the last child who are male indicate strong fertility
preference for boys.
22. Possible collaboration with DRC
• In the context of the Perspectives on
Global Development on issues related to
competitiveness
–Competitiveness of services industries
–Definition of urban areas following
the OECD methodology and use for
regional competitiveness analyses