Oecd amro s2 14_vietnam mr nguyen hoang ha

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2nd OECD-AMRO Asian Regional Roundtable

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Oecd amro s2 14_vietnam mr nguyen hoang ha

  1. 1. Three strategic breakthroughs to escape the middle-income trap Nguyen, Hoang Ha Development Strategy Institute Vietnam
  2. 2. Content • Vietnam’s Economic Condition • Three strategic breakthroughs • New Challenges
  3. 3. I. Vietnam’s Condition (1) • Vietnam has just joined the middle-income group with GDP per capita (2012) about USD 1,700. • Continuing accelerating industrialization, modernization, and rapid and sustainable development; targeting to become an industrialized country. • Economic growth has slowed down since global crisis. • Questions about the growth economic model and the necessity of structural reform. • Switching the focus from robust growth to stabilzing economy in 2011-2015 period. • Proposing three strategic breakthroughs to 2020
  4. 4. M/GDP (%) gM (%) 4.7 4.8 gGDP (%) 5.3 5.0 GCF/GDP (%) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 1985 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Manufacturing/GDP (%) growth rate of Manufacturing (%) growth rate of GDP (%) Gross Capital Formation/GDP (%) I. Vietnam’s Condition (2)
  5. 5. ACHIEVEMENTS CHALLENGES2012 & 2013 1 digit inflation Long spell of slow growth Robust in export Economic growth less than Indonesia and Philippines since 1994 More diversification in export goods Decreasing in Investment to GDP Ratio
  6. 6. Still attracting to foreign investors, 2nd in ASEAN Surplus in Current Accounts After 2 years, tncreasing in Reserves: 12 weeks of imports Bankcruptcies Low Growth in Retail Sector Imports from the domestic sector contracted by 7%
  7. 7. II. Three strategic breakthroughs 1. Improve the socialist oriented market economy institution, focusing on creation of an environment for equal competition, and administrative reforms; 2. Develop rapidly human resources, notably high quality human resources, focusing on comprehensive renovation of the national education; 3. Develop a synchronous infrastructure system incorporating modern facilities, focusing on the transportation network and major urban infrastructures (total 9 critical infrastructures)
  8. 8. Institutions • Exercise properly State functions, handle judiciously State-market relationship; • Improve the State apparatus, and make vigorous progress in administrative reform; • Push up the struggle against corruption and wastefulness. • Enhance the Party’s leadership and promote the people’s right as the master in State apparatus building
  9. 9. Human Resources • Improve human resource quality, renovate comprehensively and develop rapidly education and training: (i) market-oriented policy; (ii) a top national policy • Develop science and technology as really a key driving force for rapid and sustainable development; • By 2020, 96.2 million of people with more 63 million in working ages=> Aging population after 2020
  10. 10. Infrastructure • Focus on reviewing and finalizing country-wide and region- specific infrastructure development master plans, especially in relation to transport, hydropower and irrigation, ensuring economical utilization of resources, socio-economic efficiency, and environmental protection. • Develop synchronously and modernize gradually irrigation systems, with importance attached to building and consolidating the networks of sea dykes, river dykes, pumping stations, and salinity control and flash flood discharge facilities • Priorities for 9 critical infrastructues
  11. 11. No.1
  12. 12. New Challenges to Overcome • Restructuring three nodes: public investments, commercial banking system, and SOEs. • Government Structure (Silo system) & Devolution. • Legislation System. • Iron Political Will to eliminate “interest groups”.
  13. 13. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

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