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Global trends in higher education

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  • You can see a similar relationship between skills and social outcomes. If you lack foundation skills, you are more likely to be in poor health, you are less likely to volunteer, you will have less of an understanding of political issues facing your country.

    You are also less likely to trust institution and people and constantly think that others are taking advantage of you. You may ask why trust is so important but the bottom line is that there is no functioning democracy without trust in institutions and there is no functioning business relationship without trust in your partners and the rule of law. Afghanistan is an example for what financial capital can achieve in a country without a human capital base. You will also be less likely to reciprocate.

    Finally, those with poor skills show also low levels of political efficacy, that is, they tend to believe that politicians do what they want and that they themselves have no influence.
  • Net entry rate and expenditure per student (in USD) in tertiary-type A programmes are added next to country names.
  • Transcript

    • 1. 116September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Global trends in higher education Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 6 September 2011
    • 2. 226September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Education in times of economic uncertainty  In the current economic environment… … Continued strong demand for education – Poor labour markets and low opportunity costs for education … Substantial public and private gains from education – Earnings premium for tertiary education remains large and continues to grow - Public long-term gains from higher education are almost three times the size of the investments … High-level skills key to competitiveness … Comparative cost advantage across OECD countries varies with educational levels … Labour-market entry becomes more difficult – Particularly for young lower educated individuals … Education a good insurance against unemployment and to stay employed especially in weak labour markets  Educational attainment likely to rise further  Continuing education increasingly important.
    • 3. 336September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher The crisis hit the least educated hardest The unemployment rate for 15-29 year-olds increased, on average, from 10.2% to 13.5% Lack of relevant skills/experience brings higher unemployment risk for recent entrants to the labour force
    • 4. 446September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher When the crisis hit Percentage-point change between 2008-09 in unemployment rate for 15-29 year-olds - 10 20 30 40 Norway Netherlands Switzerland Luxembourg United Kingdom Austria Korea New Zealand Australia Mexico Denmark Czech Republic Slovenia Italy Japan Sweden Belgium OECD average France Brazil Poland Chile Germany Israel Finland Canada Portugal Hungary Greece United States Slovak Republic Ireland Turkey Estonia Spain C3.1 - 10 20 30 40 Norway Netherlands Switzerland Luxembourg United Kingdom Austria Korea New Zealand Australia Mexico Denmark Czech Republic Slovenia Italy Japan Sweden Belgium OECD average France Brazil Poland Chile Germany Israel Finland Canada Portugal Hungary Greece United States Slovak Republic Ireland Turkey Estonia Spain Tertiary education (%)Below upper secondary education (%) 2008 2009
    • 5. 886September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Unabated educational expansion
    • 6. 996September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States A world of change – higher education 0.0 5,000.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0 25,000.0 30,000.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1995 Expenditureperstudentattertiarylevel(USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate Graduate supply Costperstudent United States Finland Japan
    • 7. 10106September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States A world of change – higher education 0.0 5,000.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0 25,000.0 30,000.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2000 Expenditureperstudentattertiarylevel(USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate United Kingdom
    • 8. 11116September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States A world of change – higher education 0.0 5,000.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0 25,000.0 30,000.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2001 Expenditureperstudentattertiarylevel(USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate Australia
    • 9. 12126September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States A world of change – higher education 0.0 5,000.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0 25,000.0 30,000.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2002 Expenditureperstudentattertiarylevel(USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate
    • 10. 13136September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States A world of change – higher education 0.0 5,000.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0 25,000.0 30,000.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2003 Expenditureperstudentattertiarylevel(USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate
    • 11. 14146September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States A world of change – higher education 0.0 5,000.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0 25,000.0 30,000.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2004 Expenditureperstudentattertiarylevel(USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate
    • 12. 15156September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States A world of change – higher education 0.0 5,000.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0 25,000.0 30,000.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2005 Expenditureperstudentattertiarylevel(USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate
    • 13. 16166September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States A world of change – higher education 0.0 5,000.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0 25,000.0 30,000.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2006 Expenditureperstudentattertiarylevel(USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate
    • 14. 17176September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States A world of change – higher education 0.0 5,000.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0 25,000.0 30,000.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2007 Expenditureperstudentattertiarylevel(USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate
    • 15. 18186September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States A world of change – higher education 0.0 5,000.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0 25,000.0 30,000.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2008 Expenditureperstudentattertiarylevel(USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate Finland
    • 16. 20206September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher The composition of the global talent pool has changed… Countries’ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year- old age groups, percentage (2009) 55-64-year-old population 25-34-year-old population About 39 million people who attained tertiary level About 81 million people who attained tertiary level
    • 17. 21216September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher The composition of the global talent pool has changed… Countries’ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year- old age groups, percentage (2009) United States, 31.7 Japan, 11.0 China, 6.1 Germany, 5.6 United Kingdom, 4.7 Canada, 3.7 France, 3.1 Brazil, 3.1 Spain, 1.9 Italy, 1.7 Mexico, 1.6 Australia, 1.5 Korea, 1.4 other, 11.4 55-64-year-old population United States, 17.9 Japan, 9.5 China, 16.0 Germany, 2.7 United Kingdom, 3.9 Canada, 2.7 France, 3.5 Brazil, 3.9 Spain, 3.1 Italy, 1.7 Mexico, 3.4 Australia, 1.4 Korea, 5.0 other, 12.6 25-34-year-old population
    • 18. 22226September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher …and will continue to change Share of new entrants into tertiary education in 2009 (all OECD and G20 countries) China, 36.6% United States, 12.9% Russian Federation, 10.0% Indonesia, 4.9%Japan, 4.2% Turkey, 3.7% United Kingdom, 3.3% Mexico, 3.1% Korea, 3.1% Argentina, 2.7% Germany, 2.5% Poland, 2.1% Spain, 1.6% Italy, 1.4% Australia, 1.3% Chile, 1.3% Netherlands, 0.5% Other countries, 4.8% Other Portugal 0.5% Czech Republic 0.4% Israel 0.4% Sweden 0.4% Belgium 0.4% Hungary 0.4% Austria 0.4% New Zealand 0.3% Switzerland 0.3% Slovak Republic 0.3% Denmark 0.2% Norway 0.2% Ireland 0.2% Finland 0.2% Slovenia 0.1% Estonia 0.1% Iceland 0.0%
    • 19. 25256September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher The increase in the number of knowledge workers has not led to a decrease in their pay …which is what happened to low-skilled workers
    • 20. 26266September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher 55,946 62,481 64,177 74,457 92,320 95,320 100,520 112,928 115,464 135,515 143,018 144,133 147,769 173,522 175,067 175,670 207,653 215,125 225,663 230,098 240,449 253,947 300,868 311,966 323,808 373,851 -400,000 -200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 Denmark Sweden Turkey New Zealand Norway Spain Australia Netherlands Belgium Finland Japan France Germany Austria OECD Average Canada United Kingdom Poland Slovenia Hungary Czech Republic Ireland Korea Italy United States Portugal Direct cost Foregone earnings Income tax effect Social contribution effect Transfers effect Grosss earnings benefits Unemployment effect USD equivalent C hart A9.3 Components of the private net present value for a man with higher education (2007 or latest available year) Net present value in USD equ.
    • 21. 28286September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher OECD countries Tertiary Below upper secondary Australia 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.8 Austria* 2.8 2.8 -6.0 -6.0 Belgium* 3.7 3.7 -0.6 -0.6 Canada* 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 Czech Republic 9.1 9.1 2.9 2.9 Denmark 3.2 3.2 -4.9 -4.9 Finland* -6.2 -6.2 -2.5 -2.5 France -3.6 -3.6 1.4 1.4 Germany 21.6 21.6 7.3 7.3 Hungary 11.1 11.1 1.4 1.4 Ireland* 10.9 10.9 -5.4 -5.4 Israel* 2.7 2.7 1.1 1.1 Italy* 11.7 11.7 1.0 1.0 Korea* -9.7 -9.7 2.2 2.2 Luxembourg* 16.8 16.8 -12.6 -12.6 Netherlands* 10.8 10.8 -2.4 -2.4 New Zealand -2.1 -2.1 -2.2 -2.2 Norway* -5.5 -5.5 -5.6 -5.6 Poland* 6.1 6.1 0.7 0.7 Portugal -8.7 -8.7 5.8 5.8 Slovenia* -7.4 -7.4 -0.3 -0.3 Spain* 12.5 12.5 0.9 0.9 Sweden -5.2 -5.2 -6.0 -6.0 Switzerland 1.2 1.2 -1.0 -1.0 United Kingdom -3.2 -3.2 1.0 1.0 United States 13.0 13.0 -0.5 -0.5 * Limited years; Other notes: Yellow within +/- 3%; Red > -3%; Green > +3% TA8.2a Percentage-point change in relative earnings 25-64 year-olds (1998-2008 or latest available years)
    • 22. 29296September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Skills and social outcomes 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 Level 5 Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 Has fair to poor health Does not volunteer for charity or non-profit organizations Poor understanding of political issues facing country Poor level of general trust Higher propensity of believing people try to take of advantage of others Lower propensity to reciprocate Poor political efficacyPIAAC skill level Odds ratios
    • 23. 31316September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Taxpayers are getting a good return too
    • 24. 32326September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher 21,724 28,621 29,582 37,542 46,482 43,419 63,701 67,411 79,774 81,307 82,932 84,532 85,917 89,034 89,464 89,705 91,036 94,125 95,030 95,322 100,177 155,664 166,872 167,241 168,649 193,584 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Turkey Denmark Spain Sweden New Zealand Norway France Japan Canada Czech Republic Italy Australia Ireland Korea Portugal Austria OECD Average Poland Netherlands United Kingdom Finland Slovenia Hungary Belgium Germany United States Public benefits Public costs Chart A9.5 In equivalent USD Public cost and benefits for a man obtaining tertiary education (2007 or latest available year) Net present value
    • 25. 33336September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Consumption or economic use?
    • 26. 34346September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Chart A7.3 Skills acquisition and use, 25-64 year-olds with a tertiary education (2009) Brazil Turkey Italy Portugal CzechRepublic Slovak Republic Mexico Austria Hungary Poland Chile Slovenia Greece Germany France Spain OECD Average Netherlands Iceland Sweden Belgium Denmark Luxembourg Switzerland Ireland Estonia Norway Australia Finland UnitedKingdom Korea NewZealand UnitedStates Japan Israel Canada 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 10 20 30 40 50 Proportion of population with tertiary education, % Employmentrateofpopulationwithtertiaryeducation,% %
    • 27. 42426September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher International mobility
    • 28. 43436September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher An increasingly mobile student population  In 2009, over 3.7 million tertiary students were enrolled outside their country of citizenship  New players are emerging in an increasingly competitive market for international education  Australia and the Russian Federation expanded their market share by two percentage points over the past decade, and Korea, New Zealand and Spain by one percentage point each  Share of the USA dropped from 23% to 18% Germany, the UK and Belgium also lost ground  Largest numbers of international students are from China, India and Korea
    • 29. 44446September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Evolution by region of destination in the number of students enrolled outside their country of citizenship (2000 to 2009) 0 500 000 1 000 000 1 500 000 2 000 000 2 500 000 3 000 000 3 500 000 4 000 000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Worldwide in OECD in EU countries in G20 countries in North America Chart C3.1 Number of foreign students
    • 30. 45456September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Distribution of foreign students in tertiary education, by country of destination (2009) Percentage of foreign tertiary students (reported to the OECD) who are enrolled in each country of destination United States 18.0 United Kingdom 9.9 Australia 7.0 Germany 7.0 France 6.8 Canada 5.2 Russian Federation 3.7 Japan 3.6 Spain 2.3 New Zealand 1.9 Italy 1.8 China 1.7 South Africa 1.7 Austria 1.6 Korea 1.4 Switzerland 1.3 Belgium 1.3 Netherlands 1.2 Sweden 1.1 Other OECD countries 6.0 Other non-OECD countries 15.7 Chart C3.2
    • 31. 46466September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Trends in international education market shares Percentage of all foreign tertiary students enrolled by destination 0 5 10 15 20 25 UnitedStates UnitedKingdom Australia Germany France Canada RussianFederation Japan Spain NewZealand Italy China SouthAfrica Austria Korea Switzerland Belgium Netherlands Sweden OtherOECD Othernon-OECD 2000 2009 Chart C3.3 Market share (%) The figure for other non-OECD countries refers to the part of the total foreign students studying in other G20 and non-OECD countries and is obtained after subtracting China, South Africa and the Russian Federation from the total in non-OECD destinations as estimated from UNESCO data.
    • 32. 48486September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Percentage of international students changing status and staying on in selected OECD countries, 2008 or 2009 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Canada France CzechRepublic Australia Netherlands Germany UnitedKingdom Norway Finland NewZealand Japan Ireland Spain Austria Chart C3.5 % Percentage of students who have changed their status (whether for work, family or other reasons) among students who have not renewed their permits
    • 33. 49496September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Distribution of foreign students in tertiary education, by country of origin (2009) China, 16.5 India, 6.2 Korea, 3.8 Germany, 2.9 France, 1.6 United States, 1.6 Russian Federation, 1.6 Turkey, 1.4 Canada, 1.4 Japan, 1.4 Italy, 1.3 Indonesia, 1.1Saudi Arabia, 1.0 Poland, 1.0 Other OECD countries, 9.8 Other non-OECD G20 countries, 1.3 Other non-OECD non-G20 countries, 46.0 T C3.2
    • 34. 51516September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Who pays for what, when and how?
    • 35. 52526September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 UnitedStates Korea Canada Chile Finland Norway Israel NewZealand Sweden Netherlands Australia OECDaverage Poland Ireland France Belgium Portugal Austria Mexico Spain UnitedKingdom CzechRepublic Switzerland Germany Slovenia Italy SlovakRepublic Hungary Brazil Denmark RussianFederation Japan Estonia Iceland Argentina Total expenditure on educational institutions Research and development (R&D) Ancillary services (transport, meals, housing provided by institutions) Educational core services Chart B6.2 % of GDP Expenditure on core services, R&D and ancillary services in tertiary educational institutions as a percentage of GDP (2008)
    • 36. 55556September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 Poland Korea Spain Portugal Estonia UnitedKingdom Austria CzechRepublic Finland Japan France Mexico Denmark Ireland Canada OECDaverage Norway Belgium Italy Australia Germany Sweden SlovakRepublic Iceland Netherlands UnitedStates Brazil Israel Hungary Chile Change in expenditure Change in the number of students (in full-time equivalents) Change in expenditure per student Chart B1.6 Index of change (2000 = 100) Changes in student numbers and expenditure for tertiary education Index of change between 2000 and 2008 (2000=100, 2008 constant prices)
    • 37. 56566September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Share of private expenditure on tertiary educational institutions (2000, 2005, 2008) percentage, by level of education 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Chile Korea Japan UnitedKingdom UnitedStates Australia Israel Canada Portugal Poland Mexico OECDaverage NewZealand Italy Netherlands SlovakRepublic Estonia Spain CzechRepublic France Ireland Slovenia Austria Germany Sweden Belgium Iceland Finland Denmark 2008 2005 2000 Chart B3.3 %
    • 38. 58586September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher This chart does not take into account grants, subsidies or loans that partially or fully offset the students’ tuition fees Average annual tuition fees charged by tertiary-type A public institutions for full-time national students (academic year 2008-09) Portugal (84%, 10 373), Italy (50%, 9 556), Spain (46%, 13 928), Czech Republic (59%, 8 738), Denmark (55%, 17 634), Finland (69%, 15 402), Ireland (51%, 16 284), Iceland (77%, 10 429), Mexico (35%, 7 504), Norway (77%, 18 942), Sweden (68%, 20 864) Canada (m, 24 384) New Zealand (78%, 11 125) Japan (49%, 16 533), Australia (94%, 16 297), Netherlands (63%, 17 245) United Kingdom1 (61%, 15 314) Belgium (Fr. and Fl.) (m, m) France (m, 14 945) 0 500 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 USD Chart B5.2 1. Public institutions do not exist at this level of education and most students are enrolled in government-dependent private institutions. United States (70%, 29 910) 6000 Korea (71%, 10 109) Austria (54%, 15 081), Switzerland (41%, 23 284)
    • 39. 59596September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher 23,899 38,466 43,039 44,268 46,603 52,065 56,077 59,711 61,658 71,057 79,821 85,603 94,315 98,176 99,960 100,378 103,660 112,018 119,458 124,906 161,110 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 Turkey Czech Rep. Korea Poland Portugal Hungary Spain New Zealand Belgium Australia OECD average Italy Finland Norway Sweden Canada Denmark Germany Austria United Kingdom Netherlands Private direct cost Private foregone earnings Public direct cost Public foregone earnings USD equivalent Public costsPrivate costs Chart A9.4 Public and private investment for a man obtaining higher education (2007 or latest available year) Total investment private+public
    • 40. 64646September2011 Globaltrendsinhighereducation UUK,AndreasSchleicher Thank you !  www.oecd.org – All national and international publications – The complete micro-level database  Email: Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org … and remember: Without data, you are just another person with an opinion Embargo until 13 September 11:00 Paris