What does the future hold forhigher education? Andreas Schleicher

1 1What does the future holdfor higher education What does the future hold for higher education? Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 IMHE General Conference Paris, 19 September 2012 Andreas Schleicher Advisor of the OECD Secretary-General on Education Policy Deputy Director for Education

Education 2 2 Formal learning providers Informal learning Traditional institutions Traditional institutionsWhat does the future hold Is there no end How successful do to the expansion of institutions engage withfor higher education higher education? evolving learning needs? Four questions… Ownership Learner Formal learning Informal learning Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 Who can make a Can we extend mass Innovators Innovators systemic difference to education for some to closing skills gaps? personalised learning for all?

Education 3 3 Formal learning providers Informal learning Traditional institutions Traditional institutionsWhat does the future hold Is there no end How successful do to the expansion of institutions engage withfor higher education higher education? evolving learning needs? Ownership Learner Formal learning Informal learning Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 Who can make a Can we extend mass Innovators Innovators systemic difference to education for some to closing skills gaps? personalised learning for all?

The composition of the global talent pool has changed… 4 4 Countries‟ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year- old age groups,What does the future hold 55-64-year-old population 25-34-year-old populationfor higher education Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 About 39 million people About 81 million people who attained tertiary level who attained tertiary level

The composition of the global talent pool has changed… 5 5 Countries‟ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year- old age groupsWhat does the future hold 55-64-year-old population 25-34-year-old populationfor higher education United other, 14.5 United States, 35.8 States, 20.5 other, 12.9 Korea, 1.6 Australia, 1.7 Korea, 5.7 Mexico, 1.8 Australia, 1.6 Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 Italy, 1.9 Mexico, 3.9 Spain, 2.1 Japan, 10.9 Italy, 2.0 Brazil, 3.5 Spain, 3.5 France, 3.5 Canada, 4.2 Brazil, 4.5 United Kingdom, 5.3 France, 4.1 China, 18.3 Japan, 12.4 Canada, 3.1 Germany, 6.3 Germany, 3.1 China, 6.9 United Kingdom, 4.4

Australia 7 7 Austria Belgium Canada A world of change – higher education Chile Czech RepublicWhat does the future hold Denmark 30,000 Estonia Finland 1995for higher education France Germany 25,000 Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland 20,000 Israel Italy Japan Korea Cost per student 15,000 Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand 10,000 Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia 5,000 Spain Sweden Switzerland 0 Graduate supply Turkey United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate (%)

Australia 8 8 Austria Belgium Canada A world of change – higher education Chile Czech RepublicWhat does the future hold Denmark 30,000 Estonia Finland 1995for higher education France Germany 25,000 Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland 20,000 Israel Italy United States Japan Korea Cost per student 15,000 Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand 10,000 Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia 5,000 Spain Sweden Switzerland 0 Graduate supply Turkey United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate (%)

Australia 9 9 Austria Belgium Canada A world of change – higher education Chile Czech RepublicWhat does the future hold Denmark 30,000 Estonia Finland 2000for higher education France Germany 25,000 Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland 20,000 Israel Italy Japan Korea 15,000 Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand 10,000 Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia 5,000 Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey 0 United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate

Australia1010 Austria Belgium Canada A world of change – higher education Chile Czech RepublicWhat does the future hold Denmark 30,000 Estonia Finland 2001for higher education France Germany 25,000 Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland 20,000 Israel Italy Japan Korea 15,000 Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand 10,000 Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia 5,000 Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey 0 United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate

Australia1919 Austria Belgium Canada A world of change – higher education Chile Czech RepublicWhat does the future hold Denmark 30,000 Estonia Finland 2009for higher education France Germany 25,000 Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland 20,000 Israel Italy Denmark Japan United Kingdom Korea 15,000 Australia Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand New Zealand Finland 10,000 Iceland Norway Poland Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Australia Slovenia 5,000 Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey 0 United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate

Australia2020 Austria Belgium Canada A world of change – higher education Chile Czech RepublicWhat does the future hold Denmark 30,000 Estonia Finland 2009for higher education France Germany 25,000 Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland 20,000 Israel US Italy Japan Korea 15,000 Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand 10,000 Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia 5,000 Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey 0 United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate

2222 Evolution in the number of students enrolled outside their country of citizenship (2000 to 2010) By region of destinationWhat does the future hold Worldwide In OECD In EU countries In G20 countries In North Americafor higher education Number of foreign students 4 500 000 4 000 000 3 500 000 3 000 000 Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 2 500 000 2 000 000 1 500 000 1 000 000 500 000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201 Chart C4.1

2626 Trends in international education market shares Percentage of all foreign tertiary students enrolled, by destinationWhat does the future hold 2010 2000 Market share (%) 25for higher education 20 15 10 Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 5 0 Russian Federation Sweden Germany Korea Austria Canada China Australia France Spain Japan South Africa Italy Switzerland Netherlands ther G20 and non-OECD Belgium United Kingdom New Zealand United States Other OECD “Other G20 and non-OECD countries” refers to the portion of total foreign students studying in other G20 and non-OECD countries and is obtained after subtracting China, South Africa and the Russian Federation from the total in non-OECD destinations, as estimated from UNESCO data.

2727What does the future holdfor higher education Will we one day all have a university degree and work for the minimum wage? A growing educational divide Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012

2929 The value of higher education for a man Components of the private net present value of higher education for a man (2008 or latest available year)What does the future hold Direct cost Foregone earnings Income tax effect Social contribution effect Transfers effect Gross earnings benefitsfor higher education Unemployment effect Grants effect Portugal $373,851 United States Czech Republic $249,679 $329,552 Poland $230,630 Slovenia $225,663 Austria $225,048 Ireland $223,821 Slovak Republic $208,883 Hungary $208,386 Korea $189,766 OECD average $161,625 France $159,950 Italy Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 $155,346 Canada $153,520 Netherlands $145,886 Finland $145,608 Germany $144,682 Israel $143,582 United Kingdom $143,394 Japan $143,018 Belgium $116,225 Australia $115,287 Net Spain present $102,975 Norway $82,076 Estonia $74,213 value in Turkey Sweden $64,177 $61,454 USD Denmark $56,369 equivalent New Zealand $52,471 -400,000 -200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 USD equivalent Chart A9.3

Public cost and benefits of higher education3131 For a man obtaining tertiary education (2008 or latest available year) Public benefits Public costs In equivalent USDWhat does the future hold Hungary $254,984 United States $232,779 Ireland $172,602for higher education Italy $168,693 Belgium $166,477 Germany $156,125 Slovenia $155,664 Netherlands $133,560 Austria $132,103 Poland $118,266 Czech Republic $115,790 Israel $107,436 OECD average $101,116 Finland $95,947 Australia $93,236 Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 Portugal $89,464 United Kingdom $86,550 France $81,545 Japan $67,411 Canada $66,845 Net present Slovak Republic $58,159 value Korea $55,367 Norway $55,318 Sweden 43,419 Denmark $38,421 New Zealand $33,912 Spain $25,591 Turkey $21,724 Estonia $4,587 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Chart A9.5

IMHE, 19 September 2012 What does the future hold Andreas Schleicher for higher education 32 32 Consumption or economic use?

Average GDP growth (real percentage change from the previous3434 year) and labour income growth in GDP, by educational categories Countries with at least five years of growth estimates by educational categories; GDP growth estimates are matched with years of education growth estimates (2000-2010)What does the future hold GDP Growth ISCED 5B/5A/6 ISCED 3/4 ISCED 0/1/2 5%for higher education 4% 3% 2% Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 1% 0% -1% Czech Republic United States Germany Switzerland Austria Norway Israel Ireland France New Zealand Sweden Hungary Denmark Korea Canada Finland Country average United Kingdom Chart A10.1

IMHE, 19 September 2012 What does the future hold Andreas Schleicher for higher education 36 36 Who should pay for what, when and how? Can we ensure sustainable financing?

IMHE, 19 September 2012 What does the future hold Andreas Schleicher for higher education 37 37 80 90 70 210 200 220 100 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 110United Kingdom Korea (2000 = 100) Index of change Estonia Spain Portugal Poland FinlandCzech Republic Mexico Austria Japan Denmark France Change in expenditure Ireland OECD average Belgium Italy Change in expenditure per student Sweden Germany NorwaySlovak Republic Netherlands Hungary Brazil Change in the number of students (in full-time equivalents) Index of change between 2000 and 2009 (2000=100, 2009 constant prices) Iceland Changes in tertiary students and expenditure United States Israel Switzerland

Average tuition fees and proportion of students who3939 benefit from public loans and/or scholarships/grants Tertiary-type A, public institutions, academic year 2008-09, national full-time students Education at a Glance 2012 Bubble size 7 000 shows Group 2: graduation rates Group 3: Potentially high financial United States Average tuition fees charged by public institutions in USD 6 000 Extensive and barriers for entry to broadly uniform cost tertiary-type A education, sharing across but also strong student United Kingdom 5 000 students, student support. support systems Japan somewhat less Australia 4 000 developed. 3 000 Group 4: New Zealand Group 1: Andreas SchleicherLondon, 10 September 2012 Relatively low financial barriers No (or low) financial barriers to entry to tertiary education and Netherlands 2 000 relatively low support for tertiary studies due to tuition fees and a high level of student aid. Switzerland Italy Spain 1 000 Austria Belgium (Fl.) Norway Belgium (Fr.) Denmark 0 France Mexico Finland Iceland Sweden -1 000 0 25 50 75 100 Chart B5.1 % of students who benefit from public loans AND/OR scholarships/grants

Average tuition fees and proportion of students who4040 benefit from public loans and/or scholarships/grants Tertiary-type A, public institutions, academic year 2008-09, national full-time students Education at a Glance 2012 7 000 United States Average tuition fees charged by public institutions in USD 6 000 5 000 United Kingdom Japan Australia 4 000 3 000 New Zealand Andreas SchleicherLondon, 10 September 2012 Netherlands 2 000 Switzerland Italy Spain 1 000 Austria Belgium (Fl.) Norway Belgium (Fr.) Denmark 0 France Mexico Finland Iceland Sweden -1 000 0 25 50 75 100 Chart B5.1 % of students who benefit from public loans AND/OR scholarships/grants

Education4242 Formal learning providers Informal learning Educational institutions Traditional institutionsWhat does the future hold Is there no end How successful do to the expansion of institutions engage withfor higher education higher education? evolving learning needs? Ownership Learner Formal learning Informal learning Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 Who can make a Can we extend mass Innovators Innovators systemic difference to education for some to closing skills gaps? personalised learning for all?

IMHE, 19 September 2012 What does the future hold Andreas Schleicher for higher education 44 44 Skill score 150 200 250 300 350Not completed school Upper secondary UniversityNot completed school Upper secondary UniversityNot completed school Upper secondary Higher education and skills University Interquartile range in skill distribution by educational qualification

4545 Learning beyond institutions Cross-sectional skill-age profiles for youths by education and work statusWhat does the future hold Mean skill score 320for higher education 310 Youth in education 300 Youth in and work 290 education 280 270 260 Youth in work Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 250 240 230 Not in education, 220 not in work 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Age Linear (In education only) Linear (In education and work) Linear (Work only) Linear (NEET)

Education4646 Formal learning providers Informal learning Traditional institutions Traditional institutionsWhat does the future hold Is there no end How successful do to the expansion of institutions engage withfor higher education higher education? evolving learning needs? Ownership Learner Formal learning Informal learning Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 Other providers Other providers Who can make a Can we extend mass systemic difference to education for some to closing skills gaps? personalised learning for all?

47 Skills shortages and unemployment coexist47 Unemployment rates (2011)What does the future hold Share of employers reporting recruitment difficultiesfor higher education Poland Ireland Norway Spain South Africa United Kingdom Sweden Netherlands France Czech Republic Hungary China Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 Austria Slovenia Italy Canada Belgium Germany Greece Mexico New Zealand Switzerland Turkey United States Australia Brazil India Japan % 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 %

4848 Evidence on the link between skill mismatch and earnings Skill mismatch and earnings are strongly relatedWhat does the future holdfor higher education 3000 Monthly wages US$ 2500 – 2000 Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 1500 1000 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Age HIGH-SKILL MATCH (high foundation skill, high use) SKILL DEFICIT (low foundation skill, high use) SKILL SURPLUS (high foundation skill, low use) LOW-SKILL MATCH (low foundation skill, low use)

Education5050 Formal learning providers Informal learning Traditional institutions Traditional institutionsWhat does the future hold Is there no end Will institutions succeed to the expansion of shifting responsibility forfor higher education higher education? learning to the learner? Ownership Learner Formal learning Informal learning Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 Other providers Who can make a Can we extend mass Innovators systemic difference to education for some to closing skills gaps? personalised learning for all? skip

Participation in higher education among students whose5252 parents have low levels of education (2009) Percentage of 20-34 year-old students in higher education whose parents have low levels of educationWhat does the future hold Percentage of parents with low levels of education in the total parent population Odds of being a student in higher education if parents have low levels of education (right axis)for higher education Odds ratio 100% 1.0 90% 0.9 80% 0.8 70% 0.7 60% 0.6 50% 0.5 Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 40% 0.4 30% 0.3 20% 0.2 10% 0.1 0% 0.0 Hungary Denmark Austria Sweden Germany Turkey Portugal Netherlands Greece Poland Luxembourg Belgium Finland Australia Switzerland New Zealand Spain Iceland Ireland OECD average Norway Slovenia United States Canada Italy France Czech Republic United Kingdom Chart A6.1

Intergenerational mobility in education (2009)5454 Percentage of 25-34 year-old non-students whose educational attainment is higher than their parents‟ (upward mobility), lower (downward mobility) or the same (status quo) and status quo by parents educational level (low, medium, high)What does the future hold High Medium Low Downward mobility Upward mobilityfor higher education „Status quo by parents educational level 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Turkey Germany Norway Luxembourg Sweden Austria Greece Australia Portugal France OECD average Spain Hungary Switzerland Ireland Slovenia Italy Estonia Belgium Netherlands Canada Denmark Czech Republic Poland New Zealand Iceland United Kingdom Finland Slovak Republic United States Chart A6.5

No relationship between share of private financing and5555 educational mobility in higher education Percentage of private sources in higher education financeWhat does the future hold 80 United Kingdom Higher share of private financing in higher educationfor higher education 70 United States 60 Australia 50 40 Canada New Zealand Italy Poland Portugal Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 30 Netherlands Czech Republic Spain 20 France Germany Ireland Slovenia Austria Belgium Sweden 10 Iceland Finland Norway Denmark Hungary Higher degree of educational mobility 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Percentage of students in higher education whose parents have low education

A close relationship between equity at school5656 and equity in higher education 0.80 The odds of a 20-34 year-old attending higher education if parents have low levels ofWhat does the future hold Iceland 0.70 …the more likely it is that people with disadvantagedfor higher education Portugal Ireland 0.60 Denmark backgrounds make it into higher education Sweden 0.50 Spain Australia 1 education (2009) Italy Finland Poland Germany 0.40 Austria Greece Norway Switzerland Belgium Hungary Czech Republic Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 0.30 United States 2 0.20 Canada 2 New Zealand 1 R² = 0.37 0.10 The weaker the influence of social background on learning outcomes at school (PISA) 0.00 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Impact of PISA index of economic, social, and cultural status (ESCS) on student reading performance (2000) Note: The number of students attending higher education are under-reported for Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States compared to the other countries as they only include students who attained ISCED 5A, while the other countries include students who attained ISCED 5A and/or 5B. Therefore, the omission of data on 5B qualifications may understate intergenerational mobility in these countries. 1. Data source from Adult Literacy and Lifeskills Survey (ALL) of 2006.

IMHE, 19 September 2012 What does the future hold Andreas Schleicher for higher education 59 59 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Norway % Germany Chart C6.1 DenmarkUnited Kingdom Austria Canada New Zealand Sweden Finland Belgium NetherlandsCzech Republic Employed 25-64 year-olds OECD average Portugal Spain EstoniaSlovak Republic education as a percentage of GDP (2007) Poland Compares with 1.6% for higher education Italy Greece OECD average Annual labour costs of employer-sponsored non-formal Hungary

6060 Making lifelong learning a reality for all Skills by age Skill scoreWhat does the future hold 305for higher education 295 285 275 265 Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 255 245 235 225 15 25 35 45 55 65 No adjustment Age Adjusted for immigrant status and education Adjusted for immigrant status, education and reading engagement

IMHE, 19 September 2012 What does the future hold Andreas Schleicher for higher education 61 61

6262 – www.oecd.org/education/eag2012What does the future hold • Data and publicationsfor higher education – Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org Thank you ! … and remember: Andreas Schleicher IMHE, 19 September 2012 Without data, you are just another person with an opinion

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What does the future hold forhigher education? Andreas Schleicher

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