Promoting institutional differentiation with scenario planning: the case of Paraguay - Gerrit de Jager


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Promoting institutional differentiation with scenario planning: the case of Paraguay - Gerrit de Jager

  1. 1. the case of Paraguay
  2. 2.  Marginson (2008): • “the global research university is the leading idea” Thrift (2012): • “What mix of higher-education institutions do we want?” • “What can be done to enhance the status of non-academic tertiary education?” Martínez Acosta (2011) • “La Universidad Nacional de Caaguazú será una universidad de investigación”
  3. 3.  changes in the external environment: • resources • regulation changes in the paradigm of the university • research orientation • professional profile
  4. 4.  to make sense of developments to enhance the anticipatory capacity of the universityand last but not least: to organize continuous reflection within the organization on how to navigate the institutional environment
  5. 5.  Germany‟s Excellence Initiative injected $2.3-billion into some 40 universities but failed to create a more diverse higher- education sector and produced few lasting changes at universities (WZBrief Bildung, June 2012) “academic autonomy acts as a barrier” exceptions: e.g. University of Karlsruhe
  6. 6.  academic autonomy may give rise to different outcomes: • fragmented research interests • top-research groups • high level professional schools • regionally focussed universities, etcetera not all of which will be sustainable scenario planning will be enriched by the discussion of paradigms
  7. 7. 1. uncover the paradigms of the university2. develop scenarios with dominant uncertainties3. confront the paradigms with the scenarios4. organize strategic conversations in a sustainable way
  8. 8. Bolivia  landlocked country Brazil  6,5 million inhabitants  GDP $ 23,9 million  primary completion 94%  secondary enrollment 67%  220.000 university students, of which 73% in private – mainly for profit – unis  quality control ineffective  total spending per student: • public sector $ 2400/year • private sector $ 800 / year [sources World Bank 2011, CONACYT 2012]
  9. 9. 1. communication strategy2. selection of scenario team3. development paradigms by scenario team a. interviews of stakeholders b. websurvey of university leaders c. feed back from selected university leaders4. development dominant uncertainties and future scenarios by scenario team5. creation of scenario „stories‟
  10. 10. 6. confrontation paradigms with scenario stories7. development of strategic options for each paradigm8. discussion of strategic options with groups of university leaders9. informal leadership of paradigm groups comes into existence10. development of shared strategic agendas
  11. 11.  all unis aim for default  differentiation of uni status: global research profiles has started uni lack of transparency  development of joint program of indicators each tub on its own  groups of unis bottom cooperate in various fields limited interest in  joint project to develop cooperation with links with stake holders business and industry
  12. 12.  politicalupheavals (general elections) formation of a group of „innovating universities‟ sustainment the strategic discourse development of human resources effective communication with general public
  13. 13.  more background information • paper “Promoting Institutional Differentiation with Scenario Planning. The case of Paraguay” • website: “” • mail: