Skills in Norway: Prioritising Challenges (OECD Skills Strategy - Key findings from the Survey of Adult Skills)


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Developing, activating and using skills; insights from the Norwegian skills system

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  • Good morning, thank you Aim: to provide you with a brief overview of the 3 main pillars of the OECD Skills Strategy to engage you in discussion – your perspectives regional authorities are very valuable to us. We need to understand better how skills systems can be strengthened at the national, regional and local levels.
  • their skills.
  • Ensuring youth leave school with strong foundational skills Enabling lifelong learning
  • Norway performs relatively wellVariation within countries substantially greater than variation betweenFocus on the tails as well as the mean
  • But little progressRisk shrinking talent poolYoung Koreans, for example, are outperformed only by their Japanese counterparts, while Korea’s 55 to 64 year-olds are among the three lowest-performing groups of this age across all participating countries. Every decade, Korea has been the equivalent of two years in quality, wihtout raising quantity.The results from Finland tell a similar story.  But progress has been uneven. Young Brits and Americans are entering a much more demanding job market with similar literacy and numeracy skills as their compatriots who are retiring. The talent pool in these countries could shrink significantly over the next decades unless urgent action is taken both to improve schooling and to provide adults with better opportunities to develop and maintain their skills
  • Lets look at young people with different types of educational pathways come out, who have upper secondary level as their highest level of attainment. Lets put the average of academic qualifications also on the left side. And now I add the distribution of literacy skills among vocational graduates. What you see clearly is that, in all countries, there is a significant gap in foundation skills between people with academic and vocational qualifications. Minister Hancock asked whether this chart destroys the myth that in Austria and Germany, vocational education attracts the best and brightest. And yes, it does. But you can turn that argument around and say that vocational programmes in these countries start with a lower transversal skill base, but get people highly labour-market relevant qualifications with a good chance to succeed in the labour market, which makes them all the more impressive.
  • Percentage of adults who participated in adult education and training during year prior to the survey, by level of proficiency in literacy
  • Small skill difference between tertiary and below upper secondary.….However, relatively large difference between those with tertiary and uppersecondary -> Raises questions about efficiency of upper secondary education
  • Long length of time required for skill developmentvery difficult to predict what education will be demanded by the time they graduate. If we cannot easily say how skills needs will change in the future we need to ensure that the system, and the individuals within it, are responsive to these changes as they emergeAt the individual level: this means ensuring individuals are well equiped to learn new skills as they emergeIndeed Survey of adult skills shows strong correlation between literacy/numeracy skills and ability to solve problems in a technology rich environment  foundation skills are a fundamental pre-requisite in ensuring that people remain flexible in their skills – that they are able to build on their foundation, to learn new skills and to adapt to evolving skills demands.
  • At the systemic level this requires that signals regarding changing skills needs are passed on to young people who are making their educational choicesOne of the main mechanisms through which the signal is transmitted is through wages. Skills demanded attract higher wages.In Norway, the limited distribution in wages ensures that this signal is relatively weak.Need to think creatively about alternative mechanismsCause or Effect?Cause – people not choosing to develop appropriate skills because limited reward on the labour market (and my colleague Pierce will talk a bit more about the incentives engendered within the tax system)Consequence – Limited premium because the types of tertiary skills young people are choosing are not those demanded by labour force
  • What is clear is that foundation skills will be a pre-requisite.
  • Providing incentives and conditions for individuals to access workEncouraging skilled people to remain in the labour market.
  • Large number of skills that are not active in the system
  • Can also have long-term consequencesSkills can atrophy if not used
  • Education has a large impact on labour market attachmentLiteracy also has a substantial impact (double check whether same regression or separate regressions)Odds ratios showing the effect of education and proficiency in literacy on the likelihood of participating in the labour market among adults not in formal education. Results are adjusted for gender, age, marital and foreign-born status. The odds ratios correspond to a one-standard-deviation increase in proficiency/years of education. Statistically significant values are shown in darker tones. Years of education have a standard deviation of 3.05, literacy has a standard deviation of 45.76.Adjusted scores (or differences) are based on a regression model, which takes account of variations associated with age, gender, education, socio-economic background, and type of occupationOdds ratios reflect the relative likelihood of an event occurring to a particular relative to a reference group An odds ratio of 1 represents equal chances for both groups. A value greater than 1 represents a higher chance of the event occurring for the particular group than the reference group
  • Retire relatively earlyMany on disability benefits (> 20% of those between 50-65 are disability benefit recipients. Over 30% between 60 and 64)
  • This represents a big leakageParticularly in a country where much of the skill endowment is embodied in adults
  • Many employers report struggling to recruit appropriately skilled workersSkill shortages occur 1. labour shortage 2. geographical imbalances 3. Shortfall in appropriately skilled indivsActually, in terms of literacy skills most workers in Norway are well-matched to the literacy skill requirements of their jobs. While 20% of workers consider they are over-qualified and around 15% consider they are under-qualified Survey also shows that a much smaller share of workers are mis-matched on the basis of their literacy skills. <10% are over-skilled <5% are under-skilled. of employers worldwide point to a lack of available skilled talent as a continuing drag on business performance.
  • Need to engage employersActually Norway is not doing too badly on this front
  • Norways level of self-employment is low by OECD standards
  • Despite seeing many opportunities many Norwegians feel they lack the skills to start a businessMany are worried that they may failDespite the fact that survival rates are relatively high by OECD standards
  • Migrant outcomes lag behind their native counterpartsAnd make limited progress towards labour market integration
  • More worrisome still disparities pass from one generation to the nextBig skills disparity remains even among second generation migrants
  • Jonathan: As before
  • Jonathan: As before
  • To discuss with Jonathan
  • Skills in Norway: Prioritising Challenges (OECD Skills Strategy - Key findings from the Survey of Adult Skills)

    1. 1. Skills in Norway: Prioritising Challenges OECD SKILLS STRATEGY KEY FINDINGS FROM THE SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS Prioritization Workshop Oslo 23rd October
    2. 2. Survey of Adult Skills in brief 157 000 adults across 24 countries/economies representing 724 million Answered a questionnaire about themselves Provided information about the skills they use at work Completed internationally agreed assessment of literacy, numeracy and problem solving in technology-rich environments 1
    3. 3. 3
    4. 4. Challenge 1: Ensure Strong Foundation Skills For All . Distribution of numeracy proficiency scores 5th 25th percentile percentile Mean and .95 confidence interval for mean 75th percentile 95th percentile Japan Finland Flanders… Netherlands Sweden Norway Denmark Slovak Republic Czech Republic Austria Estonia Germany Average Australia Canada Korea England/N.… Poland Ireland France United States Italy Spain 100 150 200 250 300 350 Scor 400
    5. 5. Challenge 1: Ensure Strong Foundation Skills For All . Distribution of literacy proficiency scores . 5th percentile 25th percentile Mean and .95 confidence interval for mean 75th percentile 95th percentile Japan Finland Netherlands Australia Sweden Norway Estonia Flanders… Czech Republic Slovak Republic Canada Average Korea England/N.… Denmark Germany United States Austria Poland Ireland France Spain Italy 100 150 200 250 300 350 Scor 400
    6. 6. Mean score on numeracy by age group 55- 65 Korea Spain France Poland Finland Netherlands 45- 54 Flanders… Italy Austria 35- 44 Australia Ireland 25-34 Estonia Germany 16 - 24 Average Canada Czech… Slovak… Japan Sweden Denmark Norway United States England/NI… Challenge 1: Ensure Strong Foundation Skills For All Score 325 300 275 250 225 200 6
    7. 7. All adult education and training by literacy proficiency Per cent Below level 1 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5 100 80 60 40 20 0 8
    8. 8. Challenge 2: Reduce Drop-outs Literacy proficiency: score differences by educational attainment Score point difference 70 60 50 Difference between tertiary and below upper secondary Difference between tertiary and upper secondary 40 30 20 10 0 -10 9
    9. 9. Challenge 3: Inform Educational Choices Introduction of new processes or technologies Per cent Low-skilled clerical High-skilled clerical Low-skilled manual High-skilled manual Total 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 Poland Greece Hungary Czech Republic Slovenia Spain Italy Portugal France Slovak Republic Estonia Average Austria Korea Germany Belgium Ireland Netherlands United Kingdom Denmark Norway Finland Sweden 20 Share of workers who reported introduction of new processes or technologies in their current workplace during previous three years that affected their work 10
    10. 10. Challenge 3: Inform Educational Choices Relative earnings from employment by educational attainment 190 Index Below upper secondary education Tertiary education Upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education 170 150 130 110 90 70 New Zealand Sweden Denmark Norway Korea Belgium Australia Estonia Canada Spain Finland France Japan Italy Greece OECD average Switzerland Austria Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Ireland Poland Portugal United States 50 11
    11. 11. 13
    12. 12. Challenge 4: Enhancing Participation Among Those Receiving Disability Benefit Disability benefit recipients as a percentage of the population aged 20-64 1 4
    13. 13. Challenge 4: Enhancing Participation Among Those Receiving Disability Benefit . Labour market status for adults at each literacy skill 15
    14. 14. Challenge 5: Increase Attachment Among Low-Skilled Effect of education and literacy on labour market participation . 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 Odds ratio Years of education Proficiency in literacy Statistically significant differences are marked in a darker tone
    15. 15. Challenge 6: Ensuring Norwegians Remain Active Longer Labour market status by age and gender 1 7
    16. 16. 1 9
    17. 17. Challenge 7: Engaging Employers in Ensuring a Highly-Skilled Workforce Percentage of workers who are over/under qualified over/under-skilled (literacy) . Under-skilled Sweden Underqualification Overqualification Finland Over-skilled Canada Netherlands Estonia Poland Denmark Flanders… England/N… Norway United… Australia Japan Average Korea Italy Slovak… Germany Ireland Czech… Spain Austria %40 % 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 % 40
    18. 18. Challenge 8: Promoting Entrepreneurship Self-employment as a share of total employment . 2 2
    19. 19. Challenge 9: Enhancing the Use of Migrant Worker Skills 2 4
    20. 20. Challenge 10: A Whole of Government Approach Involving a broad set of stakeholders . • Successful skills strategies can be characterised by ‘institutional thickness’ - supported by a dense network of stakeholders from both the public and private sectors • Many stakeholders have a role to play including public employment services, economic development actors, vocational education institutes, universities, unions, e mployers, industry representatives Employment Services Vocational training / universities Unions Economic development Local councils actors Employers & employers associations 2 7
    21. 21. Challenge 11: Local Flexibility and Adaptability Stark Disparities across regions . 1 Oslo 0.8 Skills Shortage Akershus Rogaland High Skill Equilibrium 0.6 Hordaland 0.4 Buskerud Sør-Trøndelag 0.2 -1 -0.8 Møre og Romsdal Vest-Agder Aust-Agder Troms Romsa Sogn og Fjordane 0 Telemark Vestfold -0.6 -0.4 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Østfold-0.2 Nordland Finnmark -0.2 Hedmark Nord-Trøndelag Oppland Rural Intermediate 0.8 -0.4 -0.6 Low Skill Equilibrium -0.8 -1 Skills Surplus 1 Metropolitan
    22. 22. Challenge 12: Building Partnerships for Implementation • Building Partnerships • Collecting Information • Collecting information • Using information • Effecting Evaluation • Scale up success • Scale down those that are not working
    23. 23. Thank you Emily Farchy Education and Skills Kristine Langenbucher Employment, Labour and Social Affairs Jonathan Barr Local Employment and Economic Development Pierce O’Reilly Centre for Tax Policy 30