The crisis in figures (OECD & other sources)

The OECD area goes into recession at the end of 2008 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

The fall in GDP gathers speed in early 2009 in most countries www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

… partly driven by the decline in gross fixed investment www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Monetary policy rates are very close to zero in most major OECD countries at the end of 2008 Note: The dark line represents the main policy rate of the central banks. The light line plots the overnight rate. Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Japan, Datastream, ECB. Main Policy and Overnight rates www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Unconventional measures have led to significant expansion of central banks’ balance sheets Size of central banks’ balance sheets Source: Datastream www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Budget balances will deteriorate markedly in all OECD member countries except Iceland in 2009 & 2010 Budget balances (as % of GDP) www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Unemployment is rising sharply www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Unemployment rises steeply in recessions and may not recover to previous levels www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Unemployment rises steeply in recessions and may not recover to previous levels www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

During recessions, Research & Development expenditures drop more severely than GDP www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Industrial production continues to plunge in most OECD countries Industrial Production 12-month rate of change www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Housing starts collapsed or slowed dramatically Index 2005=100, Seasonally adjusted www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Leading Indicators signal continued slowdown for some economies… www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

… but a possible trough for others by mid-2009 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

OECD Business Cycle Clock I US and Japan continue to slow down www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

OECD Business Cycle Clock II Recession in France and Italy may start easing in mid-2009 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

US households starting to feel more optimistic about their standard of living… www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

… and their well-being www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

US consumer spending stabilises in Spring 2009 after falling for a year www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Business and consumer confidence rising but still a long way to go Confidence Indicators Long term average = 100 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Inflation rates stable or lower thanks to falling energy prices Consumer prices, 12-month rate of change www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Unit labour costs still rising in fourth quarter of 2008 in all OECD countries except Korea www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

China’s stock market rebounds first www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

US real estate prices back to pre-2003 levels after peaking in 2006 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

UK real estates start to pick up and are still higher than historical levels www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Stock market volatility reverting to historical levels after Lehman Brothers collapse sparks unprecedented spike www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Spread on short-term interest rates soars to record levels then eases US TED Spread (LIBOR 3-month rate minus 3-month T-bill rate) (Source: Bloomberg) 15 Sept, 2008 Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Securitisation, a driver of the crisis, on the retreat since first quarter of 2008… www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

… partly due to lower mortgage securitisation www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

The exponential growth in outstanding Credit Default Swaps suddenly stopped in mid-2008… www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

… and US commercial paper funding is contracting US commercial paper outstanding, billions USD (Source: Federal Reserve) www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

The price of international shipments of raw materials rebounds after hitting an all-time low Baltic Dry Index (Source: Bloomberg) 5 Dec 2008 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Yen appreciates by 20% against the dollar in 4 months to 17 December 2008 then loses ground www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Euro depreciates 20% against the dollar from July 2008 to end October 2008, then strengthens www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

Collapse of merchandise exports in fourth quarter of 2008 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 36/38

Collapse of merchandise imports in fourth quarter of 2008 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

The fall in total merchandise trade eases off Total merchandise trade, US$ billion, seasonally adjusted www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38