Ocde ardavin world youth conference parliamentary 25 agosto 2010Presentation Transcript
Investing in Youth as a strategy for a stronger, cleaner and fairer world economy José Antonio Ardavín Head OECD Mexico Centre for Latin America World Youth Conference Mexico 2010, Parliamentary Forum Mexico City| August 25, 2010
¿In what is richer the developing world than the most advanced economies?
… precisely in Youth Percentage of population 0-15 years old 1950-2050, 2010 for selected countries Source: OECD Factbook 2010
Such fact makes of this global dialogue on youth policies particularly relevant What are the policy and legislative implications?
¿In what measure is the developing world’s demographic bonus a richness? education innovation and technology employment
development Picture: Observatorio de medios FUCATEL www.observatoriofucatel.cl ¿In what measure it is the very challenge of development ?
International migration sustainable development ¿In what measure is it a global challenge and opportunity ?
The world has been changing significantly: a process of shifting wealth is going on development
… Poverty rates have reduced significantly over the past 15 years, China contributing significantly
The youth are said to be the hope of every nation… What policies, what legislation ? … for them to consolidate and live in a stronger, cleaner and fairer world economy?
Investing adequately in youth at the different stages of their development, is an important part of the solution Source: OECD Doing better for children Public social expenditure per capita by stage of childhood, 2003
The two indispensable parts of the strategy: education employment
Education performacnce is closely linked with economic growth …among regions … and among countries Source: OECD The high cost of low education performance education
… and could be the trigger of long term growth performance
Quality matters: human capital is the key ingredient of innovation Percentage of top performers on the science scale in PISA 2006 Source: OECD PISA Database 2006
Technology use matters: it clearly influences education outputs innovation and technology Source: OECD The new millenium learners
… noteworthy, not necessarily use at school… Source: OECD The new millenium learners
… but familiarity with technology in their daily lives Source: OECD The new millenium learners
Inclusion matters: countries that have made bigger generational leaps among OECD countries are also those that have grown faster in the past few decades Percentage of population in each cohort with at least upper secondary education
Completion matters: Many countries have extraordinary intergenerational advances in access to university… Percentage of population in each cohort with at least tertiary education
… quite unfortunately, in many developing countries, youth leave education without having a degree recognized by the job market Source: OECD PISA en Iberoamerica
… thus profoundly eroding the demographic bonus Percentage of Students attending school at 15 (2006)
… and seriously limiting their employability Employment probability of 15-29 school-leavers based on their education completion Source: OECD Education database. * Share of youth in employment with less than an upper secondary education qualification or ”drop-outs” in parenthesis. employment
In general, youth face a much higher risk of unemployment than adults … Unemployed as a % of the labour force , 2 d quarter 2009 Source: National labour force surveys.
… sometimes reaching between 2 and 4 times higher unemployment rates Scarpetta, S., A. Sonnet and T. Manfredi (2010), “Rising Youth Unemployment During The Crisis: How to Prevent Negative Long-term Consequences on a Generation?”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 106, OECD Publishing. doi: 10.1787/5kmh79zb2mmv-en
… and are particularly exposed to a major downturn… 15-24 unemployed as a % of the labour force Source: National labour force surveys.
… due to their disproportionate presence of youth holding temporary jobs and their concentration in cyclically-sensitive industries Scarpetta, S., A. Sonnet and T. Manfredi (2010), “Rising Youth Unemployment During The Crisis: How to Prevent Negative Long-term Consequences on a Generation?”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 106, OECD Publishing. doi: 10.1787/5kmh79zb2mmv-en
The risk is an unemployment trap for millions of youth worldwide Souurce: OECD Projectiions, Employment Outlook 2010
Can we avoid a hope generation becoming a lost generation… Legislation can do significantly about it
The transition matters: takes time almost everywhere, particularly for low-skilled youth Source: National labour force surveys. Expected number of years spent in employment in the five years after leaving education, 2008
Internship helps: combining school and work facilitates labor market entry Correlation between the employment rate of school leavers aged 25-29 and the share of students working before they reach 25 Source: European Union labour force survey.
Regulation matters: temporary jobs, are an important way of entry for youth Population shares in part-time jobs, full-time jobs and inactivity Population aged 20-64, 2007 ***, **, *: statistically significant at 1%, 5%, 10% levels, respectively. Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics Database.
… and could have a stepping-stone effect, where available
However, unbalanced employment protection legislation between temporary and permanent contracts can become a trap and even discourage youth from the labour market Impact of equal-treatment laws on training and job security Probability of part-time compared to full-time employees, percentage points Note : *** statistically significant at 1% level. Source : OECD calculations using data from the 1995, 2000 and 2005 European Working Conditions Survey.
Focused active policies: tacke demand-side barriers to youth employment for the “poorly-integrated new entrants”
… and a second chance to gain the skills needed on the labour market for the “Youth left behind”
The NEET group (neither in employment, nor in education or training)
… many of which fall under the category of migrants International migration Unemployment rate differencial of migrant population vs native-born population Unemployment rates (15-64) by place of birth in selected OECD countries, 2007-2009 Source: International Migration Outlook 2010
… who have contributed substantially to the employment growth and productivity of recipient countries Distribution of the components of change in employment, 2005-2008, selected OECD countries Source: International Migration Outlook 2010
The solution to the main social and global challenges ahead us…. Largely depend upon… … the policies in favor of and investment in the world youth population sustainable development
… if we do so, we might probably induce a positive answer to the question below
Investing in Youth as a strategy for a stronger, cleaner and fairer world economy José Antonio Ardavín Head OECD Mexico Centre for Latin America World Youth Conference Mexico 2010, Parliamentary Forum Mexico City| August 25, 2010 Presentation available at www.oecd.org/centrodemexico