Risk Management
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Risk Management

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Risk Management Risk Management Presentation Transcript

  • Risk Management
    • The future can never be predicted with 100% accuracy.
    • Failure to plan for risks leads crisis management or firefighting
    • The lure of crisis management
      • Attention and visibility
      • Access to resources
      • Rewards
  • What is a Risk?
    • Risk is a measure of the probability and consequence of not achieving a defined project goal.
    • A probability of occurrence of that event.
    • Impact of the event occurring
    • Risks change though out the life of a project
  • Risk Management
    • Risk management is the act or practice of dealing with risk.
    • Risk management is proactive rather than reactive.
    • Risk management is not a separate activity but rather on aspect of sound project management.
  • Common Mistakes in Risk Management
    • Not understanding the benefits of Risk Management
    • Not providing adequate time or resources for Risk Management
    • Not identifying and assessing risk using a standardized approach
  • Requirements for successful risk management
    • Commitment by stakeholders
    • Stakeholder responsibility
    • Planning for risk management
    • Creation of a risk management plan
    • Committing resources to risk management
    • Top 10 risk list
      • Determine a manageable number of risks
  • Resources for Risk Management
    • When looking at the resources to commit to risk management, one needs to consider the overall project size and the impacts of the risks.
    • The Survival Guide recommends about 5% of the total project resources on specific risk management activities.
  • Risk Management Planning
    • Risk management planning is a on going process.
    • Develop a plan for risk identification.
    • Determine the resources available for risks.
      • What is available beyond the ordinary?
      • This is a good time for out of the box thinking
  • Simplified Risk Management Process
    • Risk identification
    • Risk analysis/evaluation
    • Risk planning strategies
    • Risk monitoring and control
    • Risk response
  • Risk Identification
    • The need to proactively identify risks.
      • When an event happens it is too late to plan.
    • Tools for identifying risk
      • Brainstorming
      • Nominal Group Technique
        • Each member identifies their ideas
        • Each member writes an idea on the board until all ideas are listed
  • Risk Identification
        • The group discusses each idea
        • Each individual ranks each of the ideas
        • The group then ranks all the ideas
        • Each individual ranks all the ideas again
        • Rankings are summarized
      • Delphi technique
        • Experts asked individually to provide input
        • Input summarized and distributed
        • Experts rank input
  • Risk Identification
      • Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats
      • Cause and effect diagrams
      • Past Projects
  • Possible Risks
    • Creeping user requirements
    • Excessive schedule pressure
    • Low quality
    • Cost overruns
    • Poor estimates
    • Low customer satisfaction
    • Long schedules
  • Qualitative Risk Analysis
    • Probability and Impact
      • Impacts a Software Project Manager is most likely to face:
        • Costs
        • Schedule
        • Quality
      • Probability is most often determined by expert opinion and historical data
  • Qualitative Analysis
    • Cause and Effect Diagrams
    • Risk Impact Tables
  • Quantitative Risk Analysis
    • Discrete probability distributions
      • Coin toss
    • Continuous probability distributions
      • Normal distribution or bell shaped curve
    • Running simulations
      • Using PERT to study the impact.
        • PERT does identify risks it only helps understand the impact
  • Risk Response Planning
    • Who is going to detect when the risk occurs?
    • Who has the responsibility to respond and communicate?
    • What is the response?
  • Risk Strategies
    • Factors impacting the strategy
      • Impact of the risk
      • Project constraints
      • Tolerances
    • Strategy
      • Accept or Ignore
        • Provide reserves
      • Contingency plans
        • Natural disaster/backup plans
  • Risk Strategies
      • Avoidance, eliminate the risk
      • Mitigate, lessen the impact of the risk
        • Performance impact, provide extra hardware
      • Transfer the risk
        • Offsite backup planning
        • Server farms
        • Outside management
  • Risk Monitoring and Control
    • Risk monitoring
      • Determine who is responsible for monitoring
      • How are risks monitored?
        • Project tracking, resources, quality, etc
      • Communicating the status of identified risks
        • Reviews and Audits
    • Once a risk is identified as occurring
      • Communicate
      • Take action
  • Risk Response and Evaluation
    • Trigger the defined risk response plan
      • Identify the risk owner
      • Assign resources
      • Understand the impacts
        • PERTs, Dependencies
        • Communicate
    • Evaluate once action is taken
      • Is more action needed?
      • What additional risks are triggered?
  • Common Software Project Risks
    • Discussion of common risks
      • Requirements:
        • Feature creep
        • Developer gold plating
      • Quality
        • Low quality
        • Squeeze on testing time
      • Over optimism
        • Schedules
        • Tools
  • Common Software Project Risks
      • Resources
        • Not enough
        • Weak personnel
        • Contractor issues
      • Customer
        • Customer developer friction
        • Customer acceptance