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Managing Drought:   A Roadmap for Change in the United States Dr. Donald A. Wilhite, Director National Drought Mitigation ...
Managing Drought and Water Scarcity in Vulnerable Environments:  A Roadmap for Change in the U.S. Report online at http://...
The Cycle of Disaster Management proactive reactive Crisis management treats the symptoms, not the causes. Risk management...
Components of Drought  Risk Management (social factors) Hazard (natural event) Risk x = Vulnerability Are there trends in ...
What is ‘drought?’ <ul><li>A deficiency of precipitation from expected or normal that extends over a season or longer peri...
% Area Affected 1930s 1950s 1987-present <ul><li>Key observations: </li></ul><ul><li>Drought—normal part of climate </li><...
Previous ‘Calls for Action’ <ul><li>General Accounting Office </li></ul><ul><li>Western Governors’ Association </li></ul><...
National Drought Policy Commission <ul><li>Report to Congress in 2000 in response to the National Drought Policy Act of 19...
Why the sense of urgency? <ul><li>Multiple severe droughts since 1996 have had severe impacts and have raised concern abou...
66% 40% 28% 26% 31% 30% 21% 20% 23% 20%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 Improving drought management is a national issue!
 
Why the sense of urgency? <ul><li>Water supplies are fully or over-appropriated in many river basins. </li></ul><ul><li>Al...
<ul><li>Drought plans exist at the </li></ul><ul><li>state, river basin,  local and tribal levels of government.  </li></u...
Why the sense of urgency? <ul><li>Climate change is likely to increase the frequency, severity, and duration of drought. <...
3.6°F 2.7°F 1.8°F 0.9°F cooler   warmer Temperature trends (°F per century) since 1920 PNW warmed  +1.5 o  F  during the 2...
Mote P.W.,Hamlet A.F., Clark M.P., Lettenmaier D.P., 2005, Declining mountain snowpack in western North America, BAMS, 86 ...
Portland, Oregon <ul><li>Portland’s water needs by 2040 will increase by 60 mgd, 40 mgd from regional growth; 20 mgd from ...
Science and Policy Recommendations <ul><li>Implement a national drought policy as called for by NDPC and drought mitigatio...
Science and Policy Recommendations <ul><li>Create a new ‘national water culture’ that promotes sustainable water managemen...
Science and Policy Recommendations <ul><li>Engage stakeholders within common hydrologic basins in water and drought manage...
Science and Policy Recommendations <ul><li>Maintain and enhance existing data networks and data sets, enhance timely deliv...
NIDIS passed by Congress in late 2006. Implementation Plan issued by NOAA in June 2007. Multi-agency and organizational ef...
Science and Policy Recommendations <ul><li>Encourage use of risk-based approaches for assessing multiple potential future ...
Science and Policy Recommendations <ul><li>Value water at its full worth in the development of water resource management a...
Visit the NDMC drought.unl.edu [email_address] It’s time for action! http://www.geosociety.org/
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  • Trend is very significant, and appears to represent a long term shift in the demographics of America
  • Each dot represents a station with data going back at least to 1920, size of dot shows magnitude of linear trend. Open circles are negative trends - not many of those. Most trends in the 1-3F range. The regional average (using appropriate area-weighting) is 1.5F/century. These data have been quality-controlled and corrected by the National Climate Data Center. This includes removing the “urban warming” effect, which is statistically estimated.
  • This show the capacibility of our models to capture these effects. Also, it is a simple function of temperature and precipition. This is the percent change (red is negative, blue is positive) change in April 1 SWE
  • Transcript of "Managing Drought in the United States: A Roadmap for Science ..."

    1. 1. Managing Drought: A Roadmap for Change in the United States Dr. Donald A. Wilhite, Director National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln U.S.A.
    2. 2. Managing Drought and Water Scarcity in Vulnerable Environments: A Roadmap for Change in the U.S. Report online at http://www.geosociety.org/
    3. 3. The Cycle of Disaster Management proactive reactive Crisis management treats the symptoms, not the causes. Risk management increases coping capacity, builds resilience.
    4. 4. Components of Drought Risk Management (social factors) Hazard (natural event) Risk x = Vulnerability Are there trends in exposure? What factors are affecting vulnerability? Meteorological Drought
    5. 5. What is ‘drought?’ <ul><li>A deficiency of precipitation from expected or normal that extends over a season or longer period of time and results in water supply that is insufficient to meet the needs of human activities and the environment. </li></ul><ul><li>Simply stated, it’s when ‘demand exceeds supply’ but . . . . . </li></ul>
    6. 6. % Area Affected 1930s 1950s 1987-present <ul><li>Key observations: </li></ul><ul><li>Drought—normal part of climate </li></ul><ul><li>Average annual spatial extent = 15% </li></ul><ul><li>Peak spatial extent = 65% </li></ul><ul><li>Year-to-year variability </li></ul><ul><li>Recent pattern over two decades </li></ul>
    7. 7. Previous ‘Calls for Action’ <ul><li>General Accounting Office </li></ul><ul><li>Western Governors’ Association </li></ul><ul><li>National Academy of Sciences </li></ul><ul><li>Great Lakes Commission </li></ul><ul><li>American Meteorological Society </li></ul><ul><li>Interstate Council on Water Policy </li></ul><ul><li>National Drought Policy Commission </li></ul>
    8. 8. National Drought Policy Commission <ul><li>Report to Congress in 2000 in response to the National Drought Policy Act of 1998. </li></ul><ul><li>Recommended creating a National Drought Policy. </li></ul><ul><li>National Drought Preparedness Act: 2001, 2003, 2005. </li></ul>
    9. 9. Why the sense of urgency? <ul><li>Multiple severe droughts since 1996 have had severe impacts and have raised concern about increasing vulnerability. </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. population is growing rapidly, especially in the water-short western states and the southeast. </li></ul><ul><li>Water demand is increasing dramatically, conflicts between water users are increasing. </li></ul>
    10. 10. 66% 40% 28% 26% 31% 30% 21% 20% 23% 20%
    11. 11. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 Improving drought management is a national issue!
    12. 13. Why the sense of urgency? <ul><li>Water supplies are fully or over-appropriated in many river basins. </li></ul><ul><li>All levels of government are poorly prepared for drought—reactive, crisis management approach. </li></ul><ul><li>Existing water laws and institutions are based on outmoded values and goals. </li></ul>
    13. 14. <ul><li>Drought plans exist at the </li></ul><ul><li>state, river basin, local and tribal levels of government. </li></ul><ul><li>Response oriented </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of coordination </li></ul>No national drought plan or policy currently exists. Bottom Line:
    14. 15. Why the sense of urgency? <ul><li>Climate change is likely to increase the frequency, severity, and duration of drought. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing temperatures, increased evaporation, increased heat stress/heat waves </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Changes in precipitation amount, intensity, distribution, and form, increased variability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduced snowpack, stream flow, ground water recharge, lower reservoir levels </li></ul></ul>
    15. 16. 3.6°F 2.7°F 1.8°F 0.9°F cooler warmer Temperature trends (°F per century) since 1920 PNW warmed +1.5 o F during the 20 th century
    16. 17. Mote P.W.,Hamlet A.F., Clark M.P., Lettenmaier D.P., 2005, Declining mountain snowpack in western North America, BAMS, 86 (1): 39-49 Trends in April 1 SWE 1950-1997
    17. 18. Portland, Oregon <ul><li>Portland’s water needs by 2040 will increase by 60 mgd, 40 mgd from regional growth; 20 mgd from climate change impacts. </li></ul>
    18. 19. Science and Policy Recommendations <ul><li>Implement a national drought policy as called for by NDPC and drought mitigation planning at all levels of government. </li></ul><ul><li>Include the potential impacts of projected changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change in drought risk mitigation planning. </li></ul>
    19. 20. Science and Policy Recommendations <ul><li>Create a new ‘national water culture’ that promotes sustainable water management practices to meet long-term societal needs. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Broad educational initiative to foster partnerships between levels of government, universities, and public. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased public education on the need for long-term drought mitigation and water resources management. </li></ul></ul>
    20. 21. Science and Policy Recommendations <ul><li>Engage stakeholders within common hydrologic basins in water and drought management planning. </li></ul><ul><li>Foster place-based science with community stakeholder involvement as part of public education and outreach for natural resources decision makers, integrating local climate and water information and climate projections. </li></ul>
    21. 22. Science and Policy Recommendations <ul><li>Maintain and enhance existing data networks and data sets, enhance timely delivery of data and information to decision makers and the public. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fully fund and implement the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Foster development of sector-based decision support tools for natural resource managers, agricultural producers, and policy makers. </li></ul></ul>
    22. 23. NIDIS passed by Congress in late 2006. Implementation Plan issued by NOAA in June 2007. Multi-agency and organizational effort. Drought Portal under development.
    23. 24. Science and Policy Recommendations <ul><li>Encourage use of risk-based approaches for assessing multiple potential future climate and water management scenarios. </li></ul><ul><li>Support research that improves fundamental scientific understanding of drought, i.e., causes, predictability, impacts, mitigation actions, planning methodologies, and policy alternatives. </li></ul>
    24. 25. Science and Policy Recommendations <ul><li>Value water at its full worth in the development of water resource management and drought mitigation plans. </li></ul><ul><li>Harmonize roles and responsibilities of cooperating institutions and reduce conflicts to achieve more effective decision making. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fragmentation of responsibilities within and between levels of government constrains effective drought management. </li></ul></ul>
    25. 26. Visit the NDMC drought.unl.edu [email_address] It’s time for action! http://www.geosociety.org/
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