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  • On July 1, 2002, the Uberlingen Midair Collision occurred. A Boeing 757-200 operating as DHL flight 611 and a Bashkirian Airlines Tupolev TU154 collided in midair over Uberlingen, Germany. 71 died in the crash. On March 27, 1977, Tenerife, Canary Islands, a KLM 747-200 collides with a Pan Am 747-100 on the runway during heavy fog. Both planes erupt into flames. Sixty-six aboard the Pan Am plane survive. 583 dead. On Aug. 12, 1985, Mt. Osutaka, Japan, a Japan Air Lines 747SR suffers an aft bulkhead failure which causes severe control difficulties. The plane crashes into a mountain. Four people survive. 583 dead.
  • From September 21-30, 1998, Hurricane Georges killed more than 600 people and the damage estimates for the U.S. including Puerto Rico were $5.9 billion. Tri-State Tornado of March 18, 1925 was the worst tornado disaster in U.S. history. The tornado killed 695 people and injured 2027. Mt. St. Helens Volcano resulted in 57 fatalities San Francisco earthquake occurred April 18, 1906: 28,188 buildings in San Francisco destroyed, 225,000 people were homeless and 3,000 dead.
  • St. Francis Dam Flood in California on March 12, 1928 killed 306 people. The failure of the Teton Dam in southeastern Idaho resulted in the loss of 11 lives and millions of dollars in property damage. In February 2005, a newly built dam collapsed under heavy rain waters in southwestern Pakistan killing at least 135 people. In China in August 1975, the worst dam disaster occurred. The Chinese called it "Chu Jiaozi" (The river dragon has come!). Altogether 62 dams broke in this incident. Downstream the dikes and flood diversion projects could not resist the flood of water from the initial dam collapse. The flood spread over more than a million hectares of farm land throughout 29 counties and municipalities. Eleven million people throughout the region were severely affected and more than 85 thousand died as a result of the dam failures. According to Thayer Watkins (San Jose State economist) "there was little or no time for warnings". New York City experienced electrical blackouts in 1965, 1977 and 2003. An earlier Ask Dan! (August 31, 2003) commented on the 2003 crisis. The Aug. 14, 2003 blackout demonstrated that a failure in control and decision support systems can have wide-ranging consequences. The Chernobyl accident killed more than 30 people immediately, and as a result of the high radiation levels in the surrounding 20-mile radius, 135,00 people had to be evacuated.
  • The Great Depression (1929-41) was a period in American history when the economy faltered following World War I. During this time, millions of Americans lost every penny they had. The stock market crashed, banks failed, factories shut down and businesses closed all over the nation. Enormous duststorms swept the Great Plains, blowing away the topsoil as well as the livelihoods of thousands of farmers. Millions of people struggled simply to feed and clothe themselves. The U.S. government offered many programs to help its citizens, but it wasn't until World War II that the American economy fully recovered and people could find good jobs again.
  • Summary of probable SARS cases with onset of illness from 1 November 2002 to 31 July 2003 is 8096 documented cases and 774 deaths ( Ebola hemorrhagic fever (EHF) is one of the most deadly viral diseases, causing death in 50-90% of all clinically ill cases. The Black Death was one of the worst natural disasters in history. In 1347 A.D., a great plague swept over Europe,  ravaged  cities causing  widespread  hysteria  and death. One third of the population of Europe died. "The impact upon the future of England was greater than upon any other European country." (Cartwright, 1991) The primary culprits in transmitting this disease were oriental rat fleas carried on the back of black rats. Frederick F. Cartwright, DISEASE AND HISTORY, Dorset Press, New York, 1991, p. 42. (see
  • On Black Tuesday, October twenty-ninth, 1929 the US stock market collapsed. In a single day, sixteen million shares were traded--a record--and thirty billion dollars vanished into thin air. Westinghouse lost two thirds of its September value. DuPont dropped seventy points.
  • In the 9/11/2001 U.S. terror attacks, more than 2,600 people died at the World Trade Center; 125 died at the Pentagon; 256 died on the four planes. The death toll surpassed that at Pearl Harbor in December 1941. On September 5, 1972, Black September terrorists assaulted the Munich Olympic Village apartments killing 11 Israeli athletes.
  • In 2004 there were two sudden succession crises at McDonald's ( On April 20, 2004 McDonald's Chairman and CEO Jim Cantalupo, 60, died of an apparent heart attack. His successor Charlie Bell was quickly appointed. On November 23, 2004, a second abrupt succession crisis occurred at McDonald's. President and Chief Executive Charlie Bell resigned to battle colorectal cancer (Wall Street Journal). On January 16, 2005, Charlie Bell died of cancer. He was 44. On March 24, 1989, the Exxon Valdez grounded on Bligh Reef, and spilled nearly 11 million gallons of oil into the biologically rich waters of Prince William Sound. In the early hours of December 3, 1984, methyl isocyanate (MIC) gas leaked from the Union Carbide India Limited (UCIL) plant in Bhopal, India. According to the state government, approximately 3,800 people died, approximately 40 people experienced permanent disability, and approximately 2,800 other individuals experienced partial disabilities. in November 2001, Enron filed for bankruptcy after admitting that profit margins between 1997 and 2001 had been inflated. The Firestone Tire recall associated with Ford Explorer crashes demonstrates a crisis that was mounting slowly for two large multinational companies. Data collected from traffic accidents was eventually used to demonstrate a cause and effect link that led the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to advise the companies involved to issue a recall of 6.5 million tires. Estimates of the impact of the faulty tires are approximately 250 deaths and more than 3000 catastrophic injuries. Most of the deaths occurred in accidents involving the Ford Explorer which tended to rollover when one of its tires had a blow out.
  • Key_Power_DSS.ppt

    1. 1. DSS for Crisis Planning, Response and Management by Dan Power University of Northern Iowa and DSSResources.COM [email_address] Prepared for ISCRAM 2005 Conference, Brussels, Belgium
    2. 2. <ul><li>What are some of the more creative and practical things we can use from the DSS area to improve the capability for all phases of emergency preparedness and management? </li></ul>
    3. 3. Defining DSS <ul><li>Decision Support Systems (DSS) are a specific class of computerized information system that support decision-making activities (Sprague and Carlson, 1982). </li></ul><ul><li>DSS are interactive computer-based systems and subsystems intended to help decision makers use communications technologies, data, documents, knowledge and/or models to identify and solve problems and make decisions. </li></ul>
    4. 4. Characteristics of a Decision Support System <ul><li>Facilitation </li></ul><ul><li>Interaction </li></ul><ul><li>Ancillary. DSS are not intended to replace any decision makers </li></ul><ul><li>Repeated Use </li></ul><ul><li>Task-Oriented </li></ul><ul><li>Identifiable </li></ul><ul><li>Decision Impact. DSS are intended to improve the accuracy, timeliness, quality and overall effectiveness of a specific decision or a set of related decisions. </li></ul>
    5. 5. DSS History Review <ul><li>Late 1960s, MIS focused on providing structured, periodic reports </li></ul><ul><li>Late 1960s, first DSS built using interactive computer systems </li></ul><ul><li>1975-1980 DSS using financial models with “What if?” analysis </li></ul><ul><li>1975 Steve Alter MIT dissertation </li></ul><ul><li>1981-2 Theoretical foundations </li></ul><ul><li>Mid-1980s Executive Information Systems and GDSS </li></ul><ul><li>Early 1990s shift to client/server DSS, Business Intelligence, Bill Inmon and Ralph Kimball aka “Dr. DSS” </li></ul><ul><li>1995 Data warehousing, data mining and the World-wide Web </li></ul><ul><li>1998 Enterprise performance management and balanced scorecard </li></ul><ul><li>2000 Application service providers (ASPs) and Portals </li></ul>
    6. 6. DSS for Crisis Situations <ul><li>Some Decision Support Systems are a better fit for some crisis conditions, tasks and setting factors than are others </li></ul><ul><li>What are examples of different types of computerized decision support systems? </li></ul><ul><li>What DSS fit the various crisis planning, response and management decision tasks and decision roles ? </li></ul>
    7. 7. Diverse Crisis, Disaster and Emergency Situations <ul><li>Recurring emergencies for public agencies </li></ul><ul><li>Sudden natural catastrophic events </li></ul><ul><li>Sudden public infrastructure catastrophic events </li></ul><ul><li>Complex and continuing emergencies </li></ul><ul><li>Public Health crises </li></ul><ul><li>Economic/Political crises </li></ul><ul><li>Terrorist acts </li></ul><ul><li>Company/organizational crises </li></ul>
    8. 8. Recurring Emergencies for Public Agencies Traffic Accidents Oil Spills Air Plane Crashes Building Fires Kidnappings
    9. 9. Sudden Natural Catastrophic Events Hurricane Georges Tsunami Mt. St. Helens Tornado – Tri-State A wild fire 1906 San Francisco Earthquake
    10. 10. Sudden Public Infrastructure Catastrophic Events 1928 St. Francis Dam Flood Aug. 14, 2003 NE US Blackout Chernobyl Nuclear Reactor accident
    11. 11. Complex and Continuing Emergencies Veteran’s March Washington, DC 1931
    12. 12. Public Health Crises Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Ebola hemorrhagic fever (Ebola HF virus) Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (Mad Cow) Oriental Rat Flea - The Black Death
    13. 13. Economic/Political Crises NYSE 10/29/1929 Famine
    14. 14. Terrorist Acts Black September Terrorist NYC World Trade Center Twin Towers
    15. 15. Company/Organizational Crises Bridgestone/Firestone and Ford Motor Company McDonalds’s Union Carbide Enron Exxon
    16. 16. What is the domain of IS, IT? <ul><li>Computing Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Transaction processing </li></ul><ul><li>Accounting for transactions - AIS </li></ul><ul><li>End user computer support </li></ul><ul><li>Technology decision-making and leadership </li></ul><ul><li>Supporting Decision Makers! </li></ul>
    17. 17. DSS vs. TPS <ul><li>Different purposes: TPS record specific transactions; DSS are designed to aid in decision-making. </li></ul><ul><li>In much of the world, recurring emergencies of a small scale are managed from centralized dispatch centers with computer-aided dispatch (CAD) tools recording the transaction. </li></ul><ul><li>There is a significant opportunity for expanding CAD to include more decision support while also enhancing its transaction processing role. </li></ul>
    18. 18. CAD Example
    19. 19. Supporting Decision-Making <ul><li>Is good information and analysis essential for fact-based decision-making? IF YES, THEN </li></ul><ul><li>Build DSS when good information is likely to improve decision-making </li></ul><ul><li>Build DSS when managers need and want computerized decision support </li></ul>
    20. 20. Is it appropriate to build and use a DSS? Decision Frequency High Low Decision Structure High Low Routine, programmable decision Non-routine decision Decision Automation Decision Support Systems Special studies
    21. 21. What is the purpose of the DSS? <ul><li>Collaboration </li></ul><ul><li>Data analysis and retrieval </li></ul><ul><li>Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge sharing </li></ul><ul><li>Operations performance monitoring </li></ul><ul><li>Course of action analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Action decision support for triage, hazard assessment or verification </li></ul><ul><li>Contingency planning </li></ul><ul><li>Resource allocation </li></ul>
    22. 22. Who will use the proposed DSS? <ul><li>Senior decision makers/managers </li></ul><ul><li>Operations staff </li></ul><ul><li>First Responders </li></ul><ul><li>Volunteers </li></ul>
    23. 23. An Expanded DSS Framework <ul><li>Primary framework dimension is the dominant component or driver of the decision support system (cf., Power, 2002) </li></ul><ul><li>S econdary dimensions are </li></ul><ul><ul><li>targeted users </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>specific purpose of the system </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>primary deployment or enabling technology </li></ul></ul>
    24. 25. What provides primary decision support functionality?   dominant component <ul><li>Communications technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Data and data management </li></ul><ul><li>Documents and document management </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge base and processing </li></ul><ul><li>Models and model processing </li></ul>
    25. 26. Five categories of Decision Support Systems <ul><li>Communications-driven DSS </li></ul><ul><li>Data-driven DSS </li></ul><ul><li>Document-driven DSS </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge-driven DSS </li></ul><ul><li>Model-driven DSS </li></ul>
    26. 27. Communications-driven DSS <ul><li>Communications-driven DSS primarily derive their functionality from computer and networking technologies that support real-time and asynchronous collaboration. </li></ul>
    27. 28. Skype
    28. 29. Data-driven DSS <ul><li>Data-driven DSS includes file drawer and management reporting systems, data warehousing and analysis systems, Executive Information Systems (EIS) and data-driven Spatial Decision Support Systems. Business Intelligence Systems are also examples of Data-Driven DSS. Data-Driven DSS emphasize access to and manipulation of large databases of structured historic and/or real-time data. </li></ul>
    29. 30. Web-based, Data-driven DSS Resource information linked to locations Messak, M., &quot;Decision Support for Mayfield, NY Fire and Emergency Medical Services&quot;, 2003, posted at DSSResources.COM November 28, 2003.
    30. 31. Web-based, Data-driven DSS Databeacon Staff, &quot;East of England Observatory adopts hosted services decision support solution&quot;, posted at DSSResources.COM May 14, 2004
    31. 32. Document-driven DSS <ul><li>Document-driven DSS help users retrieve and manage unstructured documents. A Document-driven DSS integrates a variety of storage and processing technologies to provide complete document retrieval, analysis and support. </li></ul>
    32. 33.
    33. 34. Knowledge-driven DSS <ul><li>Knowledge-driven DSS are suggestion systems, knowledge-based DSS and management expert systems. Knowledge-driven DSS suggest and recommend actions to users. </li></ul>
    34. 35. Web-based, Knowledge-driven DSS Biss, A. &quot;Dynasty Triage Advisor Enables Medical Decision-Support&quot;, 2002, at URL DSSResources.COM . Pontz, C. and D. J. Power, &quot;Building an Expert Assistance System for Examiners (EASE) at the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry&quot;, November 2002.
    35. 36. Web-based, Knowledge-driven DSS PortBlue (
    36. 37. Model-driven DSS <ul><li>Model-driven DSS includes systems that use accounting and financial models, representational models, and optimization models. Model-driven DSS emphasize access to and manipulation of a quantitative model. </li></ul>
    37. 38. Some Model-driven DSS Application Categories <ul><li>Accounting/Financial including cost-benefit analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Decision Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Inventory control and stockout </li></ul><ul><li>Location, allocation, distribution </li></ul><ul><li>Manpower planning and assignment </li></ul><ul><li>Project planning and control </li></ul><ul><li>Queuing and congestion </li></ul><ul><li>Reliability and replacement policy </li></ul><ul><li>Sequencing and scheduling </li></ul>
    38. 39. Web-based, Model-driven DSS Generator
    39. 40. Web-based, Model-driven Decision Support Tomaszewski, B., &quot;Erie County Emergency Response and Planning Application Performs Plume Modeling&quot;, March 6, 2005 at URL DSSResources.COM . Plume Modeling
    40. 41. Deployment or Enabling Technology <ul><li>USE the Web to deliver any category of DSS = Web-Based DSS </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Web-based, Communications-driven DSS </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Web-based, Data-driven DSS </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Web-based, Document-driven DSS </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Web-based, Knowledge-driven DSS </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Web-based, Model-driven DSS </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
    41. 42. Describing Specific DSS <ul><li>A web-based, model-driven DSS for routing used by a dispatcher </li></ul><ul><li>A handheld PC-based, knowledge-driven DSS for accident scene triage used by an EMT </li></ul><ul><li>A web-enabled, data-driven DSS for real-time monitoring by Incident Commander and by staff in a Command Center </li></ul><ul><li>A PC-based, model-driven DSS for planning supply chain activities used by logistics staff </li></ul>
    42. 43. Emerging Decision Support Technologies <ul><li>Scenario databases </li></ul><ul><li>Web-based planning support systems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A web-based Planning DSS can assist in development of an IAP for a particular operational period and help focus available resources on the highest priorities/incident objectives. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Instant messaging and collaboration </li></ul><ul><li>Collaborative environments </li></ul><ul><li>Agent-based, realistic simulations </li></ul><ul><li>Real-time DW using GPS, sensors </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge Management Web Portals </li></ul>
    43. 44. Integrated Decision Support Environments Walton, Matt S., III, &quot;Rebuilding an Emergency Operations Center for NYC following 9/11&quot;, 2003, posted at DSSResources.COM September 11, 2003.
    44. 45. Command Center Technology Dispatch Center NYC Command Bus U.S. HHS Command Center TigerVista Command Center 21D Map Room Mobile Computing
    45. 46. Challenges for DSS Development <ul><li>Rapid technology change </li></ul><ul><li>Managers as users and customers </li></ul><ul><li>Major issues </li></ul><ul><li>- A re current DSS results decision-impelling? </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>- What decision processes to computerize? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>- What data? Data gathering? ETL? Storage? - What analytical processing and presentation? </li></ul><ul><li>- What technology for new DSS? Web? </li></ul><ul><li>- Who builds and owns new DSS? </li></ul>
    46. 47. Some Recent DSS News Headlines <ul><li>04/13/2005 Bull market for GPS Fleet Management Systems. </li></ul><ul><li>04/12/2005 Pfizer taps Send Word Now for emergency notification to keep employees informed and safe. </li></ul><ul><li>04/07/2005 2005 Conference of the International Computer-Aided Dispatch (CAD) Consortium, Kansas City, KS, April 24-28, 2005. </li></ul><ul><li>04/05/2005 PortBlue named by Amerinet as preferred provider of disaster management systems; expert systems platform now available to one-third of all U.S. Hospitals. </li></ul><ul><li>04/01/2005 Roaming Messenger participates in national demonstration of interoperable emergency communications. </li></ul><ul><li>03/29/2005 Intergraph's Geospatial Data Management solutions aid emergency response at San Ramon Valley Fire Protection District. </li></ul><ul><li>03/29/2005 Army National Guard's Civil Support Teams gain first-response interoperability with other agencies . </li></ul><ul><li>03/29/2005 U.S. Army to secure mobile medical information with endpoint security solution from Pointsec. </li></ul><ul><li>03/24/2005 Hundreds responded to Texas City Refinery incident; BP launches information web site. </li></ul><ul><li>03/24/2005 CompuDyne's Public Safety and Justice Division is selected by Prince George's County, MD to provide Computer Aided Dispatch System. </li></ul><ul><li>03/01/2005 NYU creates nation's first academic center for private sector crisis management. </li></ul>
    47. 48. A Path in the Wilderness <ul><li>Increase attention to decision support </li></ul><ul><li>More knowledge about DSS </li></ul><ul><li>Pilot projects, retraining </li></ul><ul><li>Understand crisis decision makers and their needs </li></ul><ul><li>Cooperate and engage in discussion and debate to move to the next generation of decision support </li></ul>
    48. 49. DSS for Crisis Situations <ul><li>Incident Commander can have access to the entire range of DSS. </li></ul><ul><li>DSS must scale up and down as appropriate to an incident. </li></ul><ul><li>DSS can serve specific responders on the scene of an incident. </li></ul><ul><li>DSS can be used in a permanent Command or Operations Center for multiple tasks. </li></ul><ul><li>An Incident Commander needs to be comfortable in a high technology &quot;cocoon&quot; of wireless interconnectivity, web access and stand-alone tools like MS Access and Excel. </li></ul><ul><li>COTS like MS Access and Excel can be used to create effective small scale DSS for crisis decision support. </li></ul><ul><li>As the scale of an incident increases, more specialized, web-based applications may be useful for distributed data gathering, data analysis and decision support in the temporary ICS organization. </li></ul><ul><li>Communications-driven DSS can reduce the negative effects of time pressure in a crisis situation. </li></ul><ul><li>Data-driven DSS can help monitor the &quot;volume and intensity of events&quot;, &quot;abrupt or sudden changes&quot;, and changes in the &quot;external or internal environment&quot; of an organization, nation or region. </li></ul>
    49. 50. <ul><li>Web-based, document-driven, group decision process structuring applications can improve contingency planning. </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge-driven DSS can potentially assist in understanding the &quot;constructs, limitations and perceptions of the crisis situation&quot;. Checklists can become more sophisticated. </li></ul><ul><li>Model-driven DSS based upon quantitative planning models can help reduce or manage uncertainty. Also, model-driven DSS can help identify vulnerabilities and evaluate crisis scenarios. </li></ul><ul><li>Both model-driven and data-driven DSS can support crisis prevention activities. </li></ul><ul><li>Web portals and web-based DSS can help crisis decision makers monitor news and events and help organizations share information with the media, stakeholders and the general public. </li></ul><ul><li>Improved communications technologies and handheld and portable computing technologies make it possible for first responders to bring decision support technologies into a crisis management setting. </li></ul><ul><li>Communication and information technologies continue to breakdown in crisis. </li></ul>More Conclusions
    50. 51. Even More Conclusions <ul><li>Assessing the appropriateness of specific DSS and decision support technologies in various crisis situations must be an ongoing activity of crisis management professionals and academic researchers. </li></ul><ul><li>DSS are not relevant, helpful or useful in some crisis situations. Only some emergency and crisis situations require or will benefit from computerized decision support. </li></ul><ul><li>A typology of crisis situations is needed to help analyze DSS needs for crisis planning, response and management. </li></ul><ul><li>Policy makers must examine who &quot;owns&quot; crisis related DSS capabilities and how such capabilities should be funded and maintained. </li></ul><ul><li>We can use the Internet and World-Wide Web to extend the reach and range of many general purpose DSS for crisis planning, response and management. </li></ul><ul><li>The Web is a great source of information about DSS, please visit DSSResources.COM,, and </li></ul>
    51. 52. General guidance for building DSS for Crisis Situations <ul><li>Anything that can go wrong will go wrong </li></ul><ul><li>Everything takes longer than you think </li></ul><ul><li>Nothing is as easy as it looks </li></ul><ul><li>KISS – Keep it Simple Stupid </li></ul>Murphy's Laws,
    52. 53. References <ul><li>Power, D., Decision Support Systems: Concepts and Resources for Managers, Westport, CT: Greenwood/Quorum Books, 2002. </li></ul><ul><li>Power, D., Decision Support Systems: Frequently Asked Questions, Lincoln, NE: iUniverse, 2005. </li></ul><ul><li>Power, D., &quot;Can DSS and Decision Support technologies help reduce the threat of terrorism?&quot;, DSS News, Vol. 2, No. 20, September 23, 2001. </li></ul><ul><li>Power, D., &quot;Can DSS/IS/IT improve the Incident Command System? What needs can DSS meet?&quot;, DSS News, Vol. 6, No. 8, March 27, 2005. </li></ul><ul><li>Power, D., &quot;How can computerized decision support help in crisis situations?&quot;, DSS News, Vol. 4, No. 18, August 31, 2003. </li></ul><ul><li>Power, D., &quot;How can DSS help implement Basel II?&quot;, DSS News, Vol. 5, No. 15, July 18, 2004. </li></ul><ul><li>Power, D., &quot;How can DSS help in crisis planning, response and management?&quot;, DSS News, Vol. 6, No. 6, February 27, 2005. </li></ul><ul><li>Power, D., &quot;How could innovative DSS have assisted in specific crisis situations?&quot;, DSS News, Vol. 6, No. 9, April 10, 2005. </li></ul>
    53. 54. <ul><li>Thank you </li></ul><ul><li>Any Questions </li></ul>