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NIMET’S AGRO-CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICES: A VITAL TOOL FOR MANAGING FOOD CRISIS IN NIGERIA Dr. Anthony C. Anuforom  DG/CE...
OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION <ul><li>1.  INTRODUCTION </li></ul><ul><li>2.  KEY METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS AND THEIR RELEVANCE T...
<ul><li>To provide weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property. </l...
The Mission <ul><li>The overall mission of NIMET is to observe Nigerian weather </li></ul><ul><li>and climate and provide ...
1.0  INTRODUCTION . <ul><li>Climate and Agricultural resource are very closely related and as such any crisis situation in...
1.0  INTRODUCTION cont . <ul><li>In Nigeria, the impact of the drought episodes of 1968 and 1973/74 which reduced agric yi...
OBJECTIVES <ul><li>The objectives of this paper therefore are:  </li></ul><ul><li>(a) State the key meteorological paramet...
2. Notable Meteorological Parameters and Their Relevance to Agriculture & Food Production S/N MET PARAMETERS RELEVANCE TO ...
2. Notable Meteorological Parameters and Their Relevance to Agriculture & Food Prod Conts. S/N MET PARAMETERS RELEVANCE TO...
2. Notable Meteorological Parameters and Their Relevance to Agriculture & Food Prod Conts. S/N MET PARAMETERS RELEVANCE TO...
  3. Observed Variabilities & Associated Hazards <ul><li>Rainfall Variability  / Drought, Desertification & Floods </li></...
  3. Observed Variabilities & Associated Hazards conts. <ul><li>Temperature Variability  leading to  Heat Waves  </li></ul...
3  Observed Var & Asstd Hazards conts: (b) Temperature.
 
Changes in Average Mean Temperatures
 
 
4.0 Observed Climate Variability & Changes in Nigeria . Deviation of 1941 – ’70 Mean onset date of rainy season from the 1...
Deviation of 1941 – ‘70 Mean cessation date of rainy season from the 1911 – ’40 cessation dates Early cessation of rains i...
Figure 1.2 Flooding of Aiyetoro community along the Mahin Mud coast. Flooding results from multiple of causes: erosion (no...
 
 
5. NIMET’S AGRO-CLIMATE INFO SERVICES/PRODUCTS FOR MANAGING THE HAZARDS/FOOD CRISIS <ul><li>Agro-climatic information aids...
5. NIMET’S AGRO-CLIMATE INFO SERVICES/PRODUCTS FOR MANAGING THE HAZARDS/FOOD CRISIS S/N NIMET’S AIS/PROD APPLICATION-AREAS...
5. NIMET’S AGRO-CLIMATE INFO SERVICES/PRODUCTS FOR MANAGING THE HAZARDS/FOOD CRISIS S/N MET PARAMETERS RELEVANCE TO AGRICU...
5. NIMET’S AGRO-CLIMATE INFO SERVICES/PRODUCTS FOR MANAGING THE HAZARDS/FOOD CRISIS S/N MET PARAMETERS RELEVANCE TO AGRICU...
Assessing Impact/Trends of Climate Change/Variability on Food Production in Nigeria Using Yield Anomalies.
Assessing Impact/Trends of Climate Change/Variability on Food Production in Nigeria Using Yield Anomalies conts.
Assessing Impact/Trends of Climate Change/Variability on Food Production in Nigeria Using Yield Anomalies conts.
<ul><li>Stakeholders like Agric Policy-makers & P lanners  Agriculturists cum Agricultural extension officers, Agronomists...
7.0  CONCLUSION  <ul><li>No doubt, the carrying capacity of the biosphere to produce enough food for  our teeming populati...
7.0 CONCLUSION conts. <ul><li>Finally, it is important to note that; </li></ul><ul><li>(a)  Climate Change is a ‘Crisis mu...
THANK YOU  FOR LISTENING
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    1. 1. NIMET’S AGRO-CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICES: A VITAL TOOL FOR MANAGING FOOD CRISIS IN NIGERIA Dr. Anthony C. Anuforom DG/CEO (NIMET ) (A Paper presented at the 2009 World Food Day Symposium: ‘‘ Achieving Food Security in Times of Crisis’’, Km.28 Abuja-Keffi, Tudun Wada, Nasarawa State, 15 th October 2009.) Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) …… providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property
    2. 2. OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION <ul><li>1. INTRODUCTION </li></ul><ul><li>2. KEY METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS AND THEIR RELEVANCE TO AGRICULTURE & FOOD PRODUCTION </li></ul><ul><li>3. OBSERVED VARIABILITIES AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS </li></ul><ul><li>4. NIMET’S AGRO-CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICES/PRODUCTS FOR MANAGING THE HAZARDS/FOOD CRISIS </li></ul><ul><li>5. AREAS OF PARTNERSHIP/COLLABORATION FOR IMPROVED AGRO-CLIMATE SERVICES </li></ul><ul><li>6. CONCLUSION. </li></ul>
    3. 3. <ul><li>To provide weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property. </li></ul>NIMET’s Vision
    4. 4. The Mission <ul><li>The overall mission of NIMET is to observe Nigerian weather </li></ul><ul><li>and climate and provide meteorological, hydrological and </li></ul><ul><li>oceanographic services in support of n ational needs and </li></ul><ul><li>international obligations . These services are applied to issues of: </li></ul><ul><li>Human and Environmental sustainability </li></ul><ul><li>Policy development </li></ul><ul><li>Safe operations of air, land and marine transportation </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural production , tourism, health, defense, education, sports, construction, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring, management and mitigation of natural disasters </li></ul><ul><li>Corporative interaction within the framework of global best practices in the science of meteorology </li></ul>
    5. 5. 1.0 INTRODUCTION . <ul><li>Climate and Agricultural resource are very closely related and as such any crisis situation in the agric sector notably a ‘food crisis’ stands a great risk of becoming escalated by climate vagaries and extreme weather events like heat wave, drought and flood. </li></ul><ul><li>Food crisis is therefore gradually attaining a catastrophic dimension as a result of climate change, especially in developing regions like the sub-Saharan Africa where recovery from such crisis can take several years given the low coping capacity and the fast growing population (frm about 770million in 2005 to a projected value of 2billion in 2050). </li></ul><ul><li>IPCC’s projections show that a 2.5 deg Cel. rise in average temperature would result in decrease net return to cropland by 16 billion USD each year in the region, while a predicted temperature rise of 1.3°C by 2025 would render tens of millions more people hungry due to falling agricultural yields. </li></ul><ul><li>There are also several reported cases of rise in food prices due to increasing frequency/intensity of drought in the region , which has resulted in up to 75% crop loss particularly over East and North Africa. </li></ul>
    6. 6. 1.0 INTRODUCTION cont . <ul><li>In Nigeria, the impact of the drought episodes of 1968 and 1973/74 which reduced agric yields to between 12% and 14% of the annual average and led to the death of about 300,000 animals representing 13% of the livestock population, was still being felt several years after. </li></ul><ul><li>The recent episodes of 2007 and 2008 food crises further pushed about 100million people in the sub-Saharan region to poverty, greatly reversing the little gain of developmental programmes in the region </li></ul><ul><li>Prior knowledge of the trend and changes in the respective meteorological/climate parameters that affect the various agricultural operations therefore remains an invaluable tool either as a guide for effective harnessing of climate as resource for improved/max agric yields or as a warning against weather-related hazards which usually signal weather-induced food crisis. </li></ul>
    7. 7. OBJECTIVES <ul><li>The objectives of this paper therefore are: </li></ul><ul><li>(a) State the key meteorological parameters and their relevance to agriculture and food production, </li></ul><ul><li>(b) Note their variability/changes and associated hazards that contribute to food crisis and </li></ul><ul><li>(c) Highlight the various NIMET’s Agro-climate information services/products for managing such hazards and crisis . </li></ul><ul><li>The paper also examines possible areas of collaboration among stakeholders to ensure more efficient application of the agro-climate information towards achieving the much desired food security in Nigeria, especially in time of crisis </li></ul>
    8. 8. 2. Notable Meteorological Parameters and Their Relevance to Agriculture & Food Production S/N MET PARAMETERS RELEVANCE TO AGRICULTURE & FOOD PRODUCTION 1 Rainfall <ul><li>The main source of moisture supply to crops, </li></ul><ul><li>Its onset & cessation dates h elp to determine the growing season and water requirement of the crop for efficient crop performance. </li></ul><ul><li>A good distribution enhances crop growth, devel & yield . </li></ul>2 Temperatures <ul><li>Biological and biochemical processes which determine crop growth and development are temperature driven, </li></ul><ul><li>Both air and soil temperatures therefore affect all the growth and developmental processes of crops. </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature also helps to determine the choice of cultivars given the close link between temperature and photosynthesis. </li></ul>
    9. 9. 2. Notable Meteorological Parameters and Their Relevance to Agriculture & Food Prod Conts. S/N MET PARAMETERS RELEVANCE TO AGRICULTURE & FOOD PRODUCTION 3 Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) <ul><li>Measures the rate of water loss (transpiration & evaporation) from short green crops/vegetation. </li></ul><ul><li>Shows water availability for crop and therefore gives reliable Hydrologic Growing/potential growing season. </li></ul><ul><li>Also aids planning with respect to irrigation in the event of water shortage. </li></ul>4 Solar Radiation <ul><li>Solar radiation provides the light required for photosynthesis and thermal conditions for normal physiological functions of plants </li></ul><ul><li>It also provides the energy used for evaporation and transpiration. </li></ul><ul><li>Its amount and distribution sets limits to the dry matter production of crops. </li></ul>5 Sunshine Duration (Light) <ul><li>Light aids photo stimulus (i.e. plant movement) & formative processes (e.g. leaf expansion, stem elongation, etc.) </li></ul>
    10. 10. 2. Notable Meteorological Parameters and Their Relevance to Agriculture & Food Prod Conts. S/N MET PARAMETERS RELEVANCE TO AGRICULTURE & FOOD PRODUCTION 6 Rel. Humidity It is the percentage measure of atmospheric wetness or dryness. Higher percentage could lead to disease out break on both crops and livestocks. 7
    11. 11. 3. Observed Variabilities & Associated Hazards <ul><li>Rainfall Variability / Drought, Desertification & Floods </li></ul><ul><li>Declining rainfall and reduction in the length of the rainy season are becoming widespread following high variability in rainfall distribution with shifts in periods of onset, cessation peaks and breaks. The result of this is increase in drought affected areas giving rise to water scarcity, s horter growing period available for farming, and subsequently forced migration that escalates resource-based conflicts. </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing frequency of heavy rainfall is being observed in some areas, especially along the coastal areas leading to about 15-20% increase in rainfall. Impact of this include flood, and erosion that usually result in loss of lives including livestocks’, devastation of farmlands/infrastructures which lead to increase in food prices. </li></ul>
    12. 12. 3. Observed Variabilities & Associated Hazards conts. <ul><li>Temperature Variability leading to Heat Waves </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature increase of about an average of 0.4-1.5˚C with extreme values of 2.0 to 3.3˚C are being observed. The rate of increase is about 0.6-1.2 for the warm season across the country between the period:1943-2000. The result is warmer and more frequent hot days & nights over most places. In addition such condition is harmful to root crops, and shortens duration of crop growth cycle, which leads to poor yields. </li></ul><ul><li>The warm condition also enhances e mergence of new pests and disease vectors </li></ul>
    13. 13. 3 Observed Var & Asstd Hazards conts: (b) Temperature.
    14. 15. Changes in Average Mean Temperatures
    15. 18. 4.0 Observed Climate Variability & Changes in Nigeria . Deviation of 1941 – ’70 Mean onset date of rainy season from the 1911 – ’40 onset dates Deviation of 1971 – 2000 Mean onset date of rainy season from the 1911 – ’40 onset dates Late Onset now spreading to many parts of the country Late onsets of rains in a few places
    16. 19. Deviation of 1941 – ‘70 Mean cessation date of rainy season from the 1911 – ’40 cessation dates Early cessation of rains in and around Ondo/Ilorin Early cessation of the rains now affect many parts of the country Deviation of 1971-2000 cessation dates from 1911-’40
    17. 20. Figure 1.2 Flooding of Aiyetoro community along the Mahin Mud coast. Flooding results from multiple of causes: erosion (note the shoreline on the top side of picture), low lying topography, sea level rise etc (Awosika et. al, 2000) Flood Condition
    18. 23. 5. NIMET’S AGRO-CLIMATE INFO SERVICES/PRODUCTS FOR MANAGING THE HAZARDS/FOOD CRISIS <ul><li>Agro-climatic information aids management of agricultural activities and operations ( e.g. determining the time, extent and manner of cultivation, sowing, planting, application of biocides and herbicides, fertilizer application, ploughing, harrowing, irrigation, etc.). </li></ul><ul><li>It is therefore concerned with indispensable climatic parameters such as precipitation, humidity, temperature, solar radiation, wind/air motion, soil moisture content. These are useful for interpretation of physical processes in the lower atmosphere and upper soil layers, which are of great importance to agriculture. A summary of the various Agro-climate information services/products are as tabulated below. Judicious and appropriate applications of these have been proved to result in about 30% increase in crop yield. Other benefits include: (a) reduction of the vulnerability of food production to weather hazards, (b) ensuring informed decisions about water management for crop, (c) aiding farmers in adjusting planting dates and selection of crop varieties, (d) enhancing irrigation strategies and (e) reducing agric losses from natural hazard events via the Early Warning Services/information provided on the hazards. </li></ul>
    19. 24. 5. NIMET’S AGRO-CLIMATE INFO SERVICES/PRODUCTS FOR MANAGING THE HAZARDS/FOOD CRISIS S/N NIMET’S AIS/PROD APPLICATION-AREAS TOWARDS MANAGING FOOD CRISIS 1 ANNUAL/SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTION ( on-set and cessation dates of the cropping season, amount & distribution ) <ul><li>Mainly for planning purposes by operators in the Agric & other socio-economic sectors like water resource. </li></ul><ul><li>Provides advisories to farmers on crop selection to suit the predicted hazards e.g. drought or flood </li></ul>2 DECADAL AGROMET (BULLETIN), i.e. published every 10 days <ul><li>Shows the nation’s agro-climate at a glance. </li></ul><ul><li>It also gives the rain amount & anomalies, the soil moisture cond, temp variations, growing degree days, etc. as well as the weather outlook for the following decade. It thus aids monitoring agro-climate conditions & expected impact on crop/livestock performance . </li></ul>3 FARMERS ‘ GUIDE <ul><li>Gives Advisory/guide on WHAT TO PLANT, WHERE TO PLANT,HOW TO PLANT and WHEN TO PLANT, and so reduces risk of crop failures. It also contains information the onset & cessation dates of rains, LGS, average annual rainfall & rainfall equivalent to be added by way of irrigation to ensure better YIELD. Very useful for Agric Investors </li></ul>
    20. 25. 5. NIMET’S AGRO-CLIMATE INFO SERVICES/PRODUCTS FOR MANAGING THE HAZARDS/FOOD CRISIS S/N MET PARAMETERS RELEVANCE TO AGRICULTURE & FOOD PRODUCTION 4 ANNUAL CLIMATE REVIEW <ul><li>Gives the observed changes in Climate Parameters </li></ul>5 QUARTERLY WEATHER REVIEW <ul><li>Reviews synoptic features like Temps.( max, min & mean), Rainfall & their socio-economic impacts on Marine, Agricultural Water resources activities. </li></ul>6 MARINE MET QUARTERLY BULLETIN <ul><li>Monitors coastal weather especially over the South Atlantic Ocean at Victoria Island , the Sea Surface Temps (SST), winds, etc in aid of Maritime activities like fishing . </li></ul>
    21. 26. 5. NIMET’S AGRO-CLIMATE INFO SERVICES/PRODUCTS FOR MANAGING THE HAZARDS/FOOD CRISIS S/N MET PARAMETERS RELEVANCE TO AGRICULTURE & FOOD PRODUCTION 7 HYDROMET QUARTERLY BULLETIN <ul><li>Gives information on drought situation, availability of precipitable water for Water Resources Management in the Country. </li></ul>8 YIELD ANOMALIES <ul><li>This is a special analysis used in assessing impact of climate variability on food production; can also be useful to agric investors </li></ul>
    22. 27. Assessing Impact/Trends of Climate Change/Variability on Food Production in Nigeria Using Yield Anomalies.
    23. 28. Assessing Impact/Trends of Climate Change/Variability on Food Production in Nigeria Using Yield Anomalies conts.
    24. 29. Assessing Impact/Trends of Climate Change/Variability on Food Production in Nigeria Using Yield Anomalies conts.
    25. 30. <ul><li>Stakeholders like Agric Policy-makers & P lanners Agriculturists cum Agricultural extension officers, Agronomists, Farmers, Horticulturists, Aqua culturists, Researchers and other Agro-allied field operators need to partner with NIMET on the following areas in order to ensure improved agro-climate information services/products: </li></ul><ul><li>Sensitization of Farmers on use of socio-economic benefits of agrometeorological services & other Early Warning Services (EWS) of NIMET, through collaborations with Agric Ext workers, Agric Dev Pgms, and the Media </li></ul><ul><li>Facilitating Disemination of the said information/products for effective use by operators in the respective sectors, </li></ul><ul><li>Identification of users’ information needs in the sector, and </li></ul><ul><li>Inputs /Feedback from agricultural sectors to add values to the agromet bulletins. </li></ul>6.AREAS OF PARTNERSHIP/COLLABORATION FOR IMPROVED AGRO-CLIMATE SERVICES
    26. 31. 7.0 CONCLUSION <ul><li>No doubt, the carrying capacity of the biosphere to produce enough food for our teeming population is being seriously threatened by agroclimate variabilities. The need to ensure appropriate application of the outlined NIMET’s Agro-climate Info Services (AIS)/products that address such critical conditions (e.g. Crop water availability & temperature tolerance levels) is therefore of utmost importance. </li></ul><ul><li>There is also need to incorporate NIMET’s AIS into the nation’s effort in adapting to climate change-induced food crisis especially through collaborations among the relevant stakeholders, as recently demonstrated at the global level by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the World Food Programme (WFP). </li></ul><ul><li>An MoU is being put together by the duo to focus on shared concerns about climate change/Meteorology, hunger, nutrition and food security. It also aims at enhancing collaboration & collective capacity to protect lives and livelihood of the vulnerable communities. </li></ul>
    27. 32. 7.0 CONCLUSION conts. <ul><li>Finally, it is important to note that; </li></ul><ul><li>(a) Climate Change is a ‘Crisis multiplier’ and </li></ul><ul><li>(b) As it becomes very rapid, weather/climate-related factors that contribute to food crisis are expected to increase both in frequency and intensity. </li></ul><ul><li>In order to equally ensure accelerated coping cum adaptive strategies, efficient and timely use of the various enumerated NIMET’s agro-climatic information should constitute a major component of any effort geared towards achieving food security in times of crisis. </li></ul><ul><li>Efforts to strengthen infrastructural and human capacity of the relevant institutions’ agro-allied information support systems such as NIMET’s Agro-climate Info Services, towards achieving improved service delivery in this area should be seen as an investment rather than an expenditure. </li></ul>
    28. 33. THANK YOU FOR LISTENING
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