Carol Tuszynski: Animal Health Foresight Project

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  • Carol Tuszynski: Animal Health Foresight Project

    1. 1. Animal Health Foresight Project 2005 Iwada
    2. 2. IWADA Background <ul><li>International Working Group on Animal Disposal Alternatives </li></ul><ul><li>Meetings held in 2000, 2002, 2004 </li></ul><ul><li>Quadrilateral Group: Canada, United States, Australia & New Zealand, sponsored by CVOs </li></ul><ul><li>Recommendations led to 8 pathways for investigation </li></ul><ul><li>Foresight was proposed as an innovative methodology: Animal Health Foresight Project (AHFP) </li></ul>
    3. 3. Project Objective <ul><li>Utilize a foresight approach to stimulate the creation of a new paradigm from which alternatives to large-scale depopulation could be conceived. </li></ul>
    4. 4. Animal Health Foresight Meetings - 2005 <ul><li>Scoping meeting East Lansing January 2005 Stakeholder meeting Calgary February 2005 Stakeholder meeting Minneapolis March 2005 Synthesis meeting Ottawa April 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>Participants from: agri-industry policy makers academia research community animal welfare industry associations IT technologists veterinary community </li></ul>
    5. 5. What is Foresight? <ul><li>A set of tools for anticipating the future ….. </li></ul><ul><li>Considers multiple, plausible future scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>5-25 year time horizon </li></ul><ul><li>Accommodates uncertainty and diversity </li></ul><ul><li>Highlights emerging opportunities & threats </li></ul><ul><li>Foresight is not a forecast or prediction </li></ul>Office of the Bureau du National Science Advisor Conseiller national des sciences
    6. 6. Foresight Methodology Review Current Situation <ul><li>Why are alternatives needed? </li></ul><ul><li>Who are the stakeholders? </li></ul><ul><li>How are problems managed today? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the attitudes of the public & agri-industry? </li></ul>
    7. 7. Foresight Methodology Review Current Situation Identify Key Lenses <ul><li>Public Attitudes – fear, anxiety, mistrust </li></ul><ul><li>Public Health & Environment – animal disposal, zoonotic potential </li></ul><ul><li>Science & Technology – tracking, containment, diagnosis, prevention </li></ul><ul><li>Education & Skills – technical, veterinary, communications </li></ul><ul><li>Policy & Regulation </li></ul><ul><li>Economic – industry losses, trade issues </li></ul>
    8. 8. Foresight Methodology Review Current Situation Identify Key Lenses Identify Change Drivers <ul><li>Rate & cost of technical innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Public anxiety </li></ul><ul><li>Hypersensitivity of media, always on world </li></ul><ul><li>Animal welfare advocacy </li></ul><ul><li>Industry advocacy </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Level of animal optimization (waste of protein) </li></ul><ul><li>Regulatory agency capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Terrorist threat potential </li></ul><ul><li>Trade & production economics </li></ul><ul><li>Public health </li></ul><ul><li>Marginalization of veterinary decision-makers </li></ul>
    9. 9. Foresight Methodology Review Current Situation Identify Key Lenses Identify Change Drivers <ul><li>Rate & cost of technical innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Public anxiety </li></ul><ul><li>Hypersensitivity of media, always on world </li></ul><ul><li>Animal welfare advocacy </li></ul><ul><li>Industry advocacy </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Level of animal optimization </li></ul><ul><li>Regulatory agency capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Terrorist threat potential </li></ul><ul><li>Trade & production economics </li></ul><ul><li>Public health </li></ul><ul><li>Marginalization of veterinary decision-makers </li></ul>
    10. 10. Construct Driver Axes Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed) Public Anxiety: LOW (relaxed) Level of Animal Optimization: HIGH (many alternatives to MAD*) Level of Animal Optimization: LOW (totally MAD*) * M ass A nimal D estruction
    11. 11. Define Scenarios Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed) Public Anxiety: LOW (relaxed) Level of Animal Optimization: HIGH (many alternatives to MAD*) Level of Animal Optimization: LOW (totally MAD*) Scenario (A) Scenario (B) Scenario (C) Scenario (D)
    12. 12. Foresight Methodology Review Current Situation Identify Key Lenses Identify Change Drivers Identify 4 Scenarios Describe Each Scenario
    13. 13. Questions to Help Build a Scenario <ul><li>Discuss reasons for the public’s anxiety level. </li></ul><ul><li>How are economic choices made in this scenario? </li></ul><ul><li>What technologies support or drive this scenario? </li></ul><ul><li>What kinds of policies dominate this scenario? </li></ul><ul><li>What style & sources of leadership are required or support this scenario? </li></ul><ul><li>How do the public and media respond when a crisis occurs? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the roles for government, industry and other stakeholders? </li></ul><ul><li>How would wildcard events affect this scenario (e.g. tsunami) ? </li></ul>
    14. 14. Describe Scenarios in 2020 Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed) Level of Animal Optimization: LOW (totally MAD) Scenario (A) <ul><li>Low levels of trust among all stakeholders </li></ul><ul><li>Fear of disclosure by producers </li></ul><ul><li>Reactive response; short-term fixes; throw money at problems </li></ul><ul><li>Constant crisis management; public sees chaos </li></ul><ul><li>Secrecy & lack of transparency </li></ul><ul><li>Response to crises leaves limited funds for investment in MAD alternatives </li></ul><ul><li>Agri-industry drops best practices – poor ROI </li></ul><ul><li>Unstable animal & public health infrastructures </li></ul><ul><li>Media interest is high </li></ul>
    15. 15. Describe Scenarios in 2020 Public Anxiety: LOW (relaxed) Level of Animal Optimization: LOW (totally MAD) Scenario (B) <ul><li>Governments in total control – ‘Big Brother’/’Nanny Society’ </li></ul><ul><li>Emphasis on ‘zero-risk’ food supply; application of precautionary principle </li></ul><ul><li>Multi-national producers move off-shore </li></ul><ul><li>Urban media demands government action </li></ul><ul><li>Dissolution of stakeholder partnerships </li></ul><ul><li>____________________________________ </li></ul><ul><li>Early detection & rapid response, ‘mini-MAD’ </li></ul><ul><li>Multinational leadership, global food system </li></ul><ul><li>MAD alternatives are not developed or not effective </li></ul><ul><li>Potential switch to other forms of protein </li></ul><ul><li>Animal health events - low incidence, low visibility </li></ul>
    16. 16. Describe Scenarios in 2020 Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed) Level of Animal Optimization: HIGH (many alternatives to MAD) Scenario (C) <ul><li>Very rapid adoption of new technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Disconnect between public and science </li></ul><ul><li>Belief that industry decisions driven by economics </li></ul><ul><li>Public feels loss of control, feel forced to accept undetermined risk </li></ul><ul><li>Cherry-picking evidence to suit outcomes </li></ul><ul><li>Govt/industry relations with media are not good, see media as fanning public fear </li></ul><ul><li>Science education not highly valued </li></ul><ul><li>Industry & govt practice public relations and marketing in their communications </li></ul>
    17. 17. Describe Scenarios in 2020 Public Anxiety: LOW (relaxed) Level of Animal Optimization: HIGH (many alternatives to MAD) Scenario (D) <ul><li>Transparency (real & perceived) </li></ul><ul><li>Effective & consistent communications channels </li></ul><ul><li>Good infrastructure for fast crisis management </li></ul><ul><li>Spectrum of ‘smart’ applications (eg bio-sensors) </li></ul><ul><li>Convergence of human and animal health </li></ul><ul><li>Buy-in to concept of adaptive risk management </li></ul><ul><li>International collaboration & containment </li></ul><ul><li>Strong relations among all stakeholders </li></ul><ul><li>Agri-industry self-regulates & takes leadership role </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic investment & adoption of technology </li></ul>
    18. 18. Where Are We Today? Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed) Public Anxiety: LOW (relaxed) Level of Animal Optimization: HIGH (many alternatives to MAD*) Level of Animal Optimization: LOW (totally MAD*) * M ass A nimal D estruction
    19. 19. Actions to “Reverse Course” Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed) Level of Animal Optimization: LOW (totally MAD) “ Failure” Scenario Current Situation “ Event Horizon” <ul><li>Foresight builds stakeholder engagement </li></ul><ul><li>Government facilitates multi-stakeholder Commission </li></ul><ul><li>Agri-industry convenes Best Practices Summit for disease control & prevention, standards and risk communication </li></ul><ul><li>Leaders of public & animal health announce new initiative: “Healthy People-Healthy Animals by 2020” </li></ul><ul><li>Transition plan agreed – public and media involved </li></ul>
    20. 20. Actions towards “Optimum Scenario” Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed) Level of Animal Optimization: LOW (totally MAD) “ Failure” Scenario Current Situation “ Event Horizon” Level of Animal Optimization: HIGH (many alternatives to MAD) Public Anxiety: LOW (relaxed) “ Optimum” Scenario
    21. 21. Actions to Increase Animal Optimization Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed) “ Failure” Scenario Current Situation “ Event Horizon” <ul><li>High impact technologies identified and investments made </li></ul><ul><li>Incentives to share data and report disease (rapid info collection technology) </li></ul><ul><li>Pre-emptive plan ready for next crisis </li></ul><ul><li>Technology-enabled mini-MAD adopted </li></ul><ul><li>Global Knowledge Web set up & funded by G8 – includes Public Health (convergence) </li></ul><ul><li>Global network for epi-predictive modeling </li></ul><ul><li>International standards changed to match risk management approach </li></ul>Level of Animal Optimization: HIGH (many alternatives to MAD) “ Optimum” Scenario
    22. 22. Actions to Reduce Public Anxiety Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed) Scenario (A) Current Situation “ Event Horizon” <ul><li>Tracking & diagnostic technologies become ubiquitous </li></ul><ul><li>Consumers empowered to make informed decisions </li></ul><ul><li>New media used for risk communications </li></ul><ul><li>Animal rights and other organizations involved in solutions </li></ul><ul><li>New animal products are linked to better public health </li></ul><ul><li>Public trust building – listening, transparency </li></ul>Public Anxiety: LOW (relaxed) “ Optimum” Scenario
    23. 23. Critical Change Elements Science & Technology R&D Optimum Scenario
    24. 24. Critical Change Elements Education Engagement Communications Information Management Science & Technology R&D Optimum Scenario
    25. 25. A New Paradigm for Animal Health <ul><li>Proactive management of risk </li></ul><ul><ul><li>shifts response mechanism from destruction to utilization, “management for advantage” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>definition of health and well-being does not mean absence of disease </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sharing of decision-making responsibility & accountability among all stakeholders , optimizing their engagement </li></ul><ul><ul><li>governments facilitate instead of direct; become change catalysts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>self-efficacy for consumers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>industry assumes an active leadership role </li></ul></ul><ul><li>A convergence of Animal Health & Public Health strategies, interests and priorities, relating to zoonotic diseases </li></ul><ul><ul><li>recognize the interdependence of animal agriculture & broader societal needs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>a significant shift from current compartmentalization (silos) </li></ul></ul>
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