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+     M d l 4o t eP      o ue    PDC             f h DC+ + ++   +         Energy & EcoTechnology                          ...
M4.1 Peak * Is our Society       Collapsing?"Peak Everything" - InterconnectionsSystems Thinking Required!Designing with C...
M4.1 Peak * Is our Society       Collapsing?"Peak Everything" - InterconnectionsSystems Thinking Required!Designing with C...
“In times of extraordinary               POPULATION    change,                    GROWTH                                  ...
Peak of Petrol Extraction“Initially there was only a fixed and finite amount of oil in theground, and that, as exploitatio...
Oil formed some 90-150 million years ago,       & there is a FINITE quantity The extraction of all finite resources       ...
Remember from Resources Class            M2.5 About Stocks                               Stock - a place where energy is s...
Renewable Resource             extraction rate                (eg. fish)              capital stocks             (eg. ship...
Non-Renewable Stocks              extraction rate                (eg. petrol)               capital stock             (eg....
<<< Oil Wells                     Petrol is a non-                     renewable stock                     so Everywhere  ...
Global summary: Discoveries, production, demandThousands of annual barrels                               Annual discoverie...
Are these justcoincidentally   similar? What are therelationshipsbetween them? Which drive   Which   & how?
Energy and                   PopulationFirst oil barrel                          ?
Ca b nCy l            ro    ce                               Atmosphere                            retains almost 750     ...
Carbon Concentration in the Atmosphere                                                                               XX & ...
POPULATION         GROWTH            &       BIODIVERSITY       EXTINCTION              Why do we think &PEAK     2000    ...
Two examples of dis-connected things                               (in our current way of thinking)    Matter/Energy ~ Mon...
Wealth stems from…                                   Resources             MoneySource: http://emergysystems.org
Physical Laws of the Universe……                                   Only apply here…Don’t apply here…Source: http://emergysy...
M4.1 Peak * Is our Society       Collapsing?"Peak Everything" - InterconnectionsSystems Thinking Required!Designing with C...
Systems Design - a Review     Dana Meadows              1) they have these components     in class 2.1                    ...
Systems Design - a ReviewHierarchy                                     ecosystem    Holarchy2) complex systems            ...
Systems Design - a Review1) have these components         2) complex systems made up ofElements                         su...
AS s e inHa m n       ytm      ro y                                Elements &Eg. a healthy body: the      InterConnexions ...
AS s e inDis r o y  ytm       -            Ha m n                                                                         ...
AS s e inDis r o y  ytm       -            Ha m na Rational System Vision (for our                             Purposesyst...
AS s e inDis r o y  ytm       -            Ha m n The current system & how it might                                       ...
FORS u y o p :    td- Gr u sHOW DO EVEN JUST THE HUMAN-MADE                    & how they could this   DRIVERS ESSENTIALLY...
M4.1 Peak * Is our Society       Collapsing?"Peak Everything" - InterconnectionsSystems Thinking Required!Designing with C...
If we put creativity in the X axis ...                            Creative Descent                             (Permacultu...
working to preserve theThe two most typical             status quo“strategies” to face the                                ...
But both strategies are not so different, both are based in     a belief that we can do little to change things           ...
The 4th scenario has to be based ondifferent assumptions, Eg.:      The future will be Very Different                from ...
For study groups:                      All of these                                         are now                       ...
M4.1 Peak * Is our Society       Collapsing?"Peak Everything" - InterconnectionsSystems Thinking Required!Designing with C...
T c n l g ist e        eh oo y h        A p ic t no         p l a io fBUT ...           s ie c            c ne• WHICH scie...
T c n l g ist e       eh oo y h        A p ic t no            p l a io fGiven that ... s ie c                c ne• we have...
But we havent reached    an Agreement    in some 50+ years         Why?
with mathematical accuracyFractals are patterns that repeat
Look anything like the               whole        or some other partAlthough each part might not
When did you last have    an argument Which started as apparently         insoluble      & you successfully     arrived at...
M1.6                                                                       Hypothesis                                     ...
The general Larger       Pattern seems to be      an Inability to Resolve             Conflict                            ...
So maybe..              learning to LET things                 "come to a Head"            is an important Micro-way      ...
M4.1 Peak * Is our Society       Collapsing?"Peak Everything" - InterconnectionsSystems Thinking Required!Designing with C...
PDC+++ Module 4 Class 1 Peak
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PDC+++ Module 4 Class 1 Peak

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Climate Change, Petrol Peak & Economic Crisis have been called the 3Es of Collapse: Environmental, Energetic & Economic.
*
It is important to be well informed about the basic facts & science of these, how they interconnect, their causes & predictable effects.
*
But also explore what cultural & inner meanings are being proposed & how we can turn these crises into opportunities.
*
In this class we look at these issues in some detail.
*
What does all this mean for us as integral designers for sustainability?

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  • Module 4. Despite the fact that many &apos;Technological Improvements&apos; haven&apos;t managed to improve the quality of life for the majority of people, but have brought more problems &amp; pollution, we still keep expecting the arrival of a more modern technology, perhaps more ecological, that will restore &amp; reverse the damage made.    In fact, it is possible, but not without having more citizens with a better understanding &amp; a wider vision of what technology is, &amp; who also understand some basic science necessary in order to be able to think for ourselves on these subjects.
  •       “ The problem is never how to get new, innovative thoughts into your mind, but how to get old ones out. Every mind is a building filled with archaic furniture. Clean out a corner of your mind and creativity will instantly fill it.” Dee Hock
  • cuantas especies al día?? instabilidad monetaria ...
  • two realities that seem to come from different sources, two things that seem different when really they form part of the same crisis ....
  • propósito o función ... ej. sistema digestivo, (respiratorio, sanguíneo ... cuerpo&gt; vivir, reproducirse, comer..) Ej. De Bono sobre PAGAR a empleados que inventan formas de hacer obsoletos sus trabajos ... más cosecha
  • A holarchy , in the terminology of Arthur Koestler , is a hierarchy of ho lons – wh ere a holon i s both a part and a whole. The term was coined in Koestler&apos;s 1967 book The Ghost in the Machine . The term, spelled holoarchy , is also used extensively by American philosopher and writer Ken Wilber . [1] Ej. De Bono sobre PAGAR a empleados que inventan formas de hacer obsoletos sus trabajos ... más cosecha
  • propósito o función ... ej. sistema digestivo, (respiratorio, sanguíneo ... cuerpo&gt; vivir, reproducirse, comer..) Ej. De Bono sobre PAGAR a empleados que inventan formas de hacer obsoletos sus trabajos ... más cosecha
  • propósito o función ... ej. sistema digestivo, (respiratorio, sanguíneo ... cuerpo&gt; vivir, reproducirse, comer..) Ej. De Bono sobre PAGAR a empleados que inventan formas de hacer obsoletos sus trabajos ... más cosecha
  • propósito o función ... ej. sistema digestivo, (respiratorio, sanguíneo ... cuerpo&gt; vivir, reproducirse, comer..) Ej. De Bono sobre PAGAR a empleados que inventan formas de hacer obsoletos sus trabajos ... más cosecha
  • propósito o función ... ej. sistema digestivo, (respiratorio, sanguíneo ... cuerpo&gt; vivir, reproducirse, comer..) Ej. De Bono sobre PAGAR a empleados que inventan formas de hacer obsoletos sus trabajos ... más cosecha
  • cuantas especies al día?? instabilidad monetaria ...
  • We think we are so much more rational than &apos;primitive people&apos; .. (or someone &apos;else&apos;) but in fact in some of the situations where it would be very important to use the scientific method (in our everyday relationships), we actually prefer to stick to our dogmas (lots of the pain in conflict is saying &amp;quot;don&apos;t touch my dogma&amp;quot;! (dogma= un-questioned beliefs ... &amp; they can be anything, from &amp;quot;all x people are evil&amp;quot; to &amp;quot;am fundamentally un-lovable&amp;quot;, etc.) ... so we don&apos;t evolve
  • Transcript of "PDC+++ Module 4 Class 1 Peak"

    1. 1. + M d l 4o t eP o ue PDC f h DC+ + ++ + Energy & EcoTechnology We dedicate this Module to the Mother & Father of Integral Permaculture: DanaClass Meadows & Howard Odum, two original pioneers who helped humanity make M4.1 great strides in understanding systemic thinking, in all four quadrants. Peak Climate Change, Petrol Peak & Economic Crisis have been called the 3Es of Collapse: Environmental, Energetic & Economic. * It is important to be well informed about the basic facts & science of these, how they interconnect, their causes & predictable effects. * But also explore what cultural & inner meanings are being proposed & how we can turn these crises into opportunities. * In this class we look at these issues in some detail. * What does all this mean for us as integral designers for sustainability?
    2. 2. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society Collapsing?"Peak Everything" - InterconnectionsSystems Thinking Required!Designing with Cultural MeaningsMicro & Macro of Problems & Solutions
    3. 3. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society Collapsing?"Peak Everything" - InterconnectionsSystems Thinking Required!Designing with Cultural MeaningsMicro & Macro of Problems & Solutions
    4. 4. “In times of extraordinary POPULATION change, GROWTH & BIODIVERSITYthe problem is EXTINCTION NOT that we cant achieveall that we can dream, PEAK OIL 2000 CLIMATE 2020 CHANGE but that weDONT dream all that we could MONETARY CRISIS achieve.” & RAISE OF THE (Dee Hock) INFORMATION AGE
    5. 5. Peak of Petrol Extraction“Initially there was only a fixed and finite amount of oil in theground, and that, as exploitation proceeds, the amount of oilremaining diminishes monotonically.”M.King Hubbert
    6. 6. Oil formed some 90-150 million years ago, & there is a FINITE quantity The extraction of all finite resources (eg. oil wells) follow the Hubbert Curve Peak oil is reached when HALF of the resource has been used: > then the cost of extraction get increasingly higher as profits diminish (Peak = end of CHEAP oil)
    7. 7. Remember from Resources Class M2.5 About Stocks Stock - a place where energy is stored: eg. resources like forest biomass, soil, organic matter, coal, oxides, etc.Non-Renewables Renewables eg. chemicals, minerals eg. biological(petrol, coal, copper, etc.) (forests, fish, water, etc.) 4) REDUCE with use5) CAUSE POLLUTION when used 1) INCREASE when used moderately Use 4 & 5 only 2) are NOT affected by use to create 3) DISAPPEAR / DEGRADE if not used infrastructure
    8. 8. Renewable Resource extraction rate (eg. fish) capital stocks (eg. ships, etc.) reserve stock (eg. fish)
    9. 9. Non-Renewable Stocks extraction rate (eg. petrol) capital stock (eg. machinery) reserve stock (eg. petrol)
    10. 10. <<< Oil Wells Petrol is a non- renewable stock so Everywhere you look ... Countries >>>... you see the same pattern
    11. 11. Global summary: Discoveries, production, demandThousands of annual barrels Annual discoveries Discoveries projection Annual production Production projection Annual demand Demand projection Sources
    12. 12. Are these justcoincidentally similar? What are therelationshipsbetween them? Which drive Which & how?
    13. 13. Energy and PopulationFirst oil barrel ?
    14. 14. Ca b nCy l ro ce Atmosphere retains almost 750 GtC = Giga tons of CarbonEnergy and GtC 1 Gt = 1 Billion tons Global Warming Dead Organisms Vegetation almost 600 GtC Soils 1600 GtCOceans 40.000 GtC Fossil CO2
    15. 15. Carbon Concentration in the Atmosphere XX & XXI 392 ppm centuries 2011 End of Industrial last Ice Era Age Start of Agriculture Transition Training 2007 PPM = Parts Per Million ..... 350 is a top max limit see >>
    16. 16. POPULATION GROWTH & BIODIVERSITY EXTINCTION Why do we think &PEAK 2000 CLIMAT act as if these E OIL 2020 CHANGE major trends are ECONOMIC somehow separate? CRISIS
    17. 17. Two examples of dis-connected things (in our current way of thinking) Matter/Energy ~ Money Humanity ~ NatureSource: http://emergysystems.org
    18. 18. Wealth stems from… Resources MoneySource: http://emergysystems.org
    19. 19. Physical Laws of the Universe…… Only apply here…Don’t apply here…Source: http://emergysystems.org
    20. 20. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society Collapsing?"Peak Everything" - InterconnectionsSystems Thinking Required!Designing with Cultural MeaningsMicro & Macro of Problems & Solutions
    21. 21. Systems Design - a Review Dana Meadows 1) they have these components in class 2.1 Elements InterConnexions Purpose heart2) & complex systems in turnare made up of sub-systems veins S s e s& ytm S b ytm u S se s arteries capillaries your circulatory etc. system
    22. 22. Systems Design - a ReviewHierarchy ecosystem Holarchy2) complex systems Holonsin turnare made up of sub-systems organism 3) & sub-systems organize themselves into nested hierarchies (holarchies) organ
    23. 23. Systems Design - a Review1) have these components 2) complex systems made up ofElements sub-systems interConnections Purpose 3) sub-systems organized in nested hierarchies (holarchies) 4) & we have a great symbols language to make maps (models) of complex life systems
    24. 24. AS s e inHa m n ytm ro y Elements &Eg. a healthy body: the InterConnexions Workwhole self-regulates tokeep you alive Toward a Common Purpose heart veins your digestive system arteries capillaries your respiratory your circulatory etc. system system
    25. 25. AS s e inDis r o y ytm - Ha m n Purpose Eg. a university: as intended & discover knowledge & pass it to how can mis-align (bad design) future generations Professors ignore students in order to write their papers to get tenure balance the sack budget profesors to get good gradesStudents cheat in exams Sub-systems can enter into conflict with the intended Administrators purpose
    26. 26. AS s e inDis r o y ytm - Ha m na Rational System Vision (for our Purposesystem) > a sustainable one > a For all creatures to thrivePermaCulture Energy thriving creativity & use the least commerce to amount possible & supply all slowly (REDUCE healthy human CONSUMPTION) needs (PEOPLE CARE) toward maximum fertility & diversity (EARTH CARE)Environment Economy
    27. 27. AS s e inDis r o y ytm - Ha m n The current system & how it might Purpose be currently mis-aligned or off For all creatures to thrive or for purpose (discuss in Aulas!) humans to dominate all species? make it as cheap, abundant & Energy thriving creativity & universally use the least commerce to available as amount possible & supply all possible, with fast slowly (REDUCE maximum healthy human turn-over CONSUMPTION) consumption needs at highest (PEOPLE possible profit CARE) toward maximum fertility & diversity (EARTH CARE)Environment try to adjust & survive under Sub-systems in brutal attack serious conflict with Permaculture Economy Ethics
    28. 28. FORS u y o p : td- Gr u sHOW DO EVEN JUST THE HUMAN-MADE & how they could this DRIVERS ESSENTIALLY CLASH? clash resolve in a more oppressive world government? ENERGY DRIVER ECONOMY DRIVER make it as cheap, maximum "An ecological orientation abundant & consumption at alone,universally available highest possible outside of aas possible, with fast critical social framework, profit turn-over is dangerously unstable.  The record of fascist ecology Rather than: shows that SUSTAINABLE A SUSTAINABLE under the right conditions ECONOMY such an orientation ENERGY USE can quickly lead to thriving creativity & barbarism." use the least commerce toamount possible & >> see Fascist Ecology article supply all healthy slowly (REDUCE human needs in e-BookCONSUMPTION) (PEOPLE CARE)
    29. 29. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society Collapsing?"Peak Everything" - InterconnectionsSystems Thinking Required!Designing with Cultural MeaningsMicro & Macro of Problems & Solutions
    30. 30. If we put creativity in the X axis ... Creative Descent (Permaculture) Earth stewardship Creativity Techno-fantasy
    31. 31. working to preserve theThe two most typical status quo“strategies” to face the combinedglobal crisis correspondwith these future with the belief the newscenarios technologies will solve our problems FEAR can be a Motivator or a Paralyzing influence When How For Which People? longing for an earlier social and moral order + anger at having lost control over our future
    32. 32. But both strategies are not so different, both are based in a belief that we can do little to change things and both are anchored in the past: advocates of the status quo basically extrapolate what they regard as positive trends from the past; opponents fight these trends. “Either we are saved by science & technology or we will have to go back to the caves”
    33. 33. The 4th scenario has to be based ondifferent assumptions, Eg.: The future will be Very Different from the past& Lower consumption = Higher Standard of Life So we will need to “learn from the future as it emerges”
    34. 34. For study groups: All of these are now converging extinction of biodiversity & the gray wave in a small window of time PEAK 2000 CLIMATE OIL 2020 CHANGE >> or a small monetary instability window of & info revolution opportunity?What OTHER meanings can we Why have we created DESIGN for these times? & such a big crisis, where will they lead us? collectively?
    35. 35. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society Collapsing?"Peak Everything" - InterconnectionsSystems Thinking Required!Designing with Cultural MeaningsMicro & Macro of Problems & Solutions
    36. 36. T c n l g ist e eh oo y h A p ic t no p l a io fBUT ... s ie c c ne• WHICH science do we need to apply to solve THESE problems?• WHICH QUADRANT/S REALLY NEED THE MOST WORK HERE? + PDC + +
    37. 37. T c n l g ist e eh oo y h A p ic t no p l a io fGiven that ... s ie c c ne• we have known of the problems since the late 1960s• the solutions are relatively simple & most are also quick toimplement• There have been innumerable international conferences aboutthese• huge amounts of resources (especially international travel) aregoing into trying to resolve them• & our lives + the world as we know it depend on reaching anagreement
    38. 38. But we havent reached an Agreement in some 50+ years Why?
    39. 39. with mathematical accuracyFractals are patterns that repeat
    40. 40. Look anything like the whole or some other partAlthough each part might not
    41. 41. When did you last have an argument Which started as apparently insoluble & you successfully arrived at a WIN-WIN agreement? or at least a MUTUAL understanding?
    42. 42. M1.6 Hypothesis THINK Observe Perception Is Not Reality Reflexiona r USE this process non-selectively! (not just when convenient) ACT Design Experiment Prediction dogma what is/ "conflict"? Conflict M3.3 gossipist therapist Resolution my your story story cycle
    43. 43. The general Larger Pattern seems to be an Inability to Resolve Conflict Getwe Avoid Impatient Fear Demonize arguing & Dont haveBelittle adequate Not Listen Technologies !! & Knowledge
    44. 44. So maybe.. learning to LET things "come to a Head" is an important Micro-way to Ultimately solve the general Macro-ProblemDiscuss & aim to in disagreeAulas!! :) Learning to Accept & Work with + Harvest the Rich Yields of Our "Dark Side"
    45. 45. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society Collapsing?"Peak Everything" - InterconnectionsSystems Thinking Required!Designing with Cultural MeaningsMicro & Macro of Problems & Solutions

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