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Climate Change Presentation

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  • 5 - PREDICTIONS FOR WALES TO 2080 The best predictions we have for Wales’ Climate up to 2080. These are: While you are reading these I’d like to ask some questions can our institutions and the economy cope with the scale and pace of change as a result of these predictions? can our transport, energy, waste and built infrastructure cope with the physical changes to the environment as a result of climate change and increased temperature? are our health and social services seeing climate change as a long term strategic management issue? A futures approach - horizon scanning- backcasting are techniques which can help decision makers in Wales develop their thinking, base there response on available science and develop policy which is resilient to future change. UKCIP08 data is going to help us a lot in making these impacts more tangible for decision makers at the strategic level - but also the politicians and the middle managers in our organisations, who often make decisions that leave a very long legacy in terms of development.
  • 5 - PREDICTIONS FOR WALES TO 2080 The best predictions we have for Wales’ Climate up to 2080. These are: While you are reading these I’d like to ask some questions can our institutions and the economy cope with the scale and pace of change as a result of these predictions? can our transport, energy, waste and built infrastructure cope with the physical changes to the environment as a result of climate change and increased temperature? are our health and social services seeing climate change as a long term strategic management issue? A futures approach - horizon scanning- backcasting are techniques which can help decision makers in Wales develop their thinking, base there response on available science and develop policy which is resilient to future change. UKCIP08 data is going to help us a lot in making these impacts more tangible for decision makers at the strategic level - but also the politicians and the middle managers in our organisations, who often make decisions that leave a very long legacy in terms of development.
  • 3 - GLOBAL AND LOCAL CHALLENGE Always start presentations by saying cc is real it is not business as usual we have a small timeframe to get things right the time to act is now it is our watch Climate Change is a key priority for governments at all levels. The scientific and political community now accept that this is happening. Climate change presents us with a tremendous challenge of minimising our emissions in an ever energy hungry world economy. The way Wales develops in the future will determine our contribution to the problem. Sometimes it is easy to get wrapped up in the science, theory and policy…but I wonder when I look at my 10 month old daughter Evie and 7 year old son Reuben, whether they will live in a Wales that is resilient to everything that climate change throws at us - and their basic needs of food, water, shelter and employment are met, or whether they will be living in a Wales that is vulnerable to global economic trends and environmental change - where their basic needs are threatened.
  • C OMPLEXITY OF PARTNERSHIPS
  • Transcript

    • 1. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONIN MONMOUTHSHIRE:Service Climate Change RiskAssessments
    • 2. Agenda for the morning• Welcome and introduction – Ben Winstanley• Climate Change Risk Assessments presentation – Hazel Clatworthy• Demonstration of Wiki page resources – Nick Keyse• Work on Risk Assessments in service teams• Coffee Break• Workshop with mixed groups – identify emerging priorities and cross cutting areas of work• Brief feedback from groups• Summary of key issues from morning and next steps
    • 3. Background to Climate Adaptation work in Monmouthshire – key points• It’s about the potential impact of climate change on Monmouthshire’s communities, services, economy, landscape and infrastructure. It’s not about carbon reduction.• It’s about how we adapt and become resilient to long term changes of climate. It’s not about Emergency Planning.• Key driver – Climate Change Act 2008 – WG Reporting Requirements on risk and adaptation. Report by March 2013.• Key driver - Sustainable Development Bill 2013 (White Paper out now)– emphasis on long termism and preventative approach.• Tools and learning are based on WLGA work with other Welsh authorities and Local Service Boards over the last few years.• Today designed to orientate you on climate adaptation challenge and start to use the risk assessment tool.
    • 4. LONG TERM CLIMATE ‘FORECAST’ FOR WALES • hotter summers, milder winters • longer growing season • more rain in winter, less in summer • warmer seas & sea level rise of 1 metre (2100) • INCREASE IN EXTREME YEARS • MORE DROUGHTS, HEATWAVES, FLOODING • FREQUENT AND VIOLENT STORMS/GALES • similar to Brittany or Galicia in Spain? • UKCP09 – provides probabilistic data
    • 5. LONG TERM CLIMATE ‘FORECAST’ FOR WALES For Monmouthshire by 2050 • Increase in winter rainfall by 14%. • Decrease in summer by 16%. • Average annual temperatures are projected to increase by 2.3 degrees • Summer daily temperatures increase by 3.4 degrees. • In Winter daily minimum temperatures to increase by 2.5 degrees.
    • 6. Preparing for a changing climate –Welsh Government guidancePart 3, 4 & 5 We are here!guidance dueFebruary 2013
    • 7. Preparing for a changing climate • A closer look at what climate change means for your organisation. • Assessing your organisation’s current vulnerability to climate change. • Undertaking a climate change risk assessment.
    • 8. WLGA Changing Climate Changing Places Pilot 2008-11 (Cardiff, Gwynedd, Flintshire, RCT)Rain HeatWaterlogged graveyard School closuresSchool closures Noise PollutionSlippery pavements Rat/Wasp/Fly populationsCoastal Debris Littering/rotting rubbishWeed control Soil drying-tree damageLandslides Melting Road SurfacesEvents cancelled Grass CuttingLibrary flooding Funerals (morbidity)School TransportCold High WindsDay Centre closure School closuresSchool closures Landfill site closureRefuse collection Debris on rail/roads - closuresRoad closures Fallen treesGritting Infrastructure damagePitches icy Events – structural damageSchool Transport Traffic lights Insurance Claims CCTV -security LEARNING FROM THE PAST 5 YEARS TO ASSESS RISKS FROM EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
    • 9. THE ORGANISATIONAL SYSTEM – Is Climate Adaptation linked into decision making and planning? Policy Capital Project integration programme Corporate and LDP Management Tools BusinessRisk Management Planning Regeneration Business Organisation? Resilience Financial Community Strategy Partner? Planning Local Service Board? Asset Management Emergency Planning – Resilience Fora Schools re- organisation Social Service Scrutiny Health Property commissioning Function Planning Maintenance
    • 10. The view of the resilience of infrastructure – (particularly the transport network) to flooding and heatwavesMonmouthshire’s LSB.... future water supply for public and agricultural use Tasks for the forest fire risk and impact on the public and woodlands LSB over time: economic consequences of increased flooding to consider: financing costs of impacts – personal built and agriculture Evidence community and health consequences of flooding and Significance extreme weather – direct and indirect Consequence direct damage to built infrastructure and insurability to develop: pressure on built infrastructure of hotter summers ecosystem’s resilience to disease and invasive species a more detailed civil contingency – to events and consequences narrative for dispersed pollution from increased flooding Monmouthshire scale of the issues involved lack of coherence - understanding and response “assumption that its someone else’s responsibility”
    • 11. What now?
    • 12. Overview: Service Climate Adaptation Risk AssessmentsAim: To assess potential business impacts of projected Climate Change on thestrategy and services of Monmouthshire - to meet the requirements of the ClimateChange Act 2008.Service Management Teams are being asked to complete an assessment of climateimpacts.This will require two half day workshop sessions with principal officers and seniormanagers and a follow up meeting to determine priorities.1.Past severe weather impacts on the service2.Built assets and premises3.Infrastructure4.Service Demand and Clients/Customers Resources:5.Procurement and Supply Chains •Documents on Wiki page6.Service Logistics •Support from T&F Group7.Strategy8.Management and Governance9.Key priorities
    • 13. 1. Past Severe Weather Impacts Ask staff to consider past severe weather events (since 2003). How have these impacted on the service? RAIN HEAT • road closure • weed control • assets damage • rat/wasp/fly population • event cancelled • noise pollution Record the implications of these • homes flooded •business flooded • grass cutting • funerals (morbidity) •grave collapse •watering events of service delivery and •landfill leachate •sports pitch revenue •dry soils •mowing regimes finance. •water ingress to power lines COLD • rail cancellation WIND/STORM • school closure • fallen trees • refuse collection disrupted • fallen power lines • sports pitches icy • bridge closure What would be the implications if • gritting (extra) • infrastructure damage • litter and debris • landfill closure • road closures (collisions) •assets damage (libraries) these weather events are, as • school transport •‘street ‘furniture’ •road closure predicted, likely to become more frequent.
    • 14. 2. Built Assets and PremisesWhat are the potential climate impacts onthe services buildings, land and otherphysical assets that are managed?Are there any knowledge gaps (e.g. floodrisk)?How vulnerable are these assets topredicted changes? e.g. offices, landholdings, depots, day centres, schools.....What are the knowledge gaps – if filledwould help you to assess risks?What are the potential service andfinancial implications?How might climate resilience be built intofuture maintenance and design, assetretention and disposal?
    • 15. 3. InfrastructureWhat infrastructure does the service manage?How might climate change impact on themaintenance and management of this?What infrastructure does the service rely on?How might this be impacted on by climatechange?What would be the service and financialimplications if this infrastructure failed? e.g.transport, IT, energy, waste, water, sewerage.Are there any knowledge gaps to help youconsider risks?How might climate resilience be built intofuture capital works?
    • 16. 4. Service Demand – Clients & CustomersWhat might the impacts of achanging climate be on your clientsor customers?How might this impact on theservice they demand or need?What might the service andfinancial implications be?What do you need to know toassess impacts? e.g. social care, waste collections,parks maintenance, increasedoutdoor leisure?
    • 17. 5. Procurement & Supply ChainsWhat might the implications of climatechange be on supply chains andapproaches to procurement?Might this mean different specifications formaterials or commodities bought in?Which goods bought in are weatherdependent?How might this affect capital works fordevelopments to be fit for purpose in achanged climate?e.g. food, building materials, design, roadsurfaces, drainage.Where might there be significant financialimplications of changed approaches?
    • 18. 6. Service LogisticsHow might climate change impact on servicelogistics? ie. delivering the service to yourcustomers or clients? e.g. delivering social care, protecting thecountryside, managing a landfill, delivering thecurriculum, maintaining library services, holdingevents, maintaining roads, providing leisureservice, providing schools meals.How big are the risks to business continuity?What might the implications be on staff andcustomers and the point of service delivery?How might service provision need to change toaccommodate changes in our climate?
    • 19. 7. StrategyWhat are the implications of climate change to yourstrategic objectives as a service?Given the sorts of impacts you have been scoping whatare the major risks to your strategy, where might climatechange in combination with other long term trends (e.g.demographic change, economic downturn, energy pricerises) present a threat in coming decades.Are there any strategic opportunities resulting fromclimate change to adapt your service and benefit fromthe projected changes?How might your medium to long term strategy need tochange to build in climate resilience?Which external strategies influence your own - what arethey saying about climate change?
    • 20. 8. Management & GovernanceHow could decision making and governance withinyour Service consider long term climate changeimpacts better (in our short term financial andpolitical cycle).e.g. investment; funding and finance; riskmanagement; business and performance planning;procurement; capital programme; partnerships.Are there any areas where you consider there to bea reputational risk from climate change impacts?Which areas do you feel it might be important tobuild a business case for adaptation?What implications might this have on yourapproaches to legal and financial advice andinvolvement of portfolio holders, scrutiny and theExecutive?What support do you need to build a business casefor change?
    • 21. 9. Prioritisationwhich of these impacts/risks aremost significant in order for theService to meet its strategic andservice objectives.What are your top 10 key priorities?which of the long list of impacts lendthemselves to being dealt with at acorporate, rather than a servicelevel (both to understand the riskand to respond) and importantlyhow this might be done.The final report from Servicesshould include the 10 key Servicepriorities and their thoughts oncorporate priorities
    • 22. • All the resources to help you are at: http://climatechangemonmouthshire.wikispaces. com/• Contact any of the following in the Sustainability Team if you want any help: – Hazel Clatworthy x 4843 – Ben Winstanley x 4965 – Nick Keyse x 4773 – Alison Howard x 4844