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  • Source: The Conference Board (http://www.conference-board.org/economics/stalk.cfm#forecast)
  • Note how much the forecasts vary. Even the professional forecasters can’t agree on what the economic indicators will be in six months. Source: Wall Street Journal Online. http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-fore-0805_header.html

Fin3600 11 Fin3600 11 Presentation Transcript

  • Economic Analysis of Indian Economy Group members name: Hardeep Sigh Manmohan Singh Mukanda Ji01/11/13 Naresh Swami1 Nitin Ved
  • Top Down Analysis The top down method consists of:  A macro economic analysis  An industry analysis  A company analysis The important reason for considering the economic environment before taking an investment action, to understand the variability in stock prices which is explained by the movement of the overall market known as systematic risk.01/11/13 2
  • Macro Economic Analysis There is a strong linkage between growth in the overall economy and growth in Industry earnings (which drive stock prices, at least in the long run). After a promising start to the decade in 2010-11, with achievements like maintaining GDP growth rate around 8 percent, bringing down fiscal deficit to 4.8 percent of GDP as well as containing current account deficit to 2.6%, the fiscal year 2011-12 has been challenging for the Indian Economy.01/11/13 3
  • Cont…. India is still growing at a rapid pace in comparison to other countries; however that should not deter from the opportunity to push through further reforms, create infrastructure and generate economic opportunities. After achieving 8.4% growth in the past fiscal, India’s economy has decelerated sharply to achieve 6.1% GDP growth in the third quarter of 2011. It is worrying that growth is estimated to be less than 7% for the fiscal year ending March 31. High fiscal deficit, lack of foreign investment, tax and manufacturing reforms are some of the hindrances plaguing the Indian economy.01/11/13 4
  • Cont… The Indian economy in 2011-12 has also seen moderation in growth. Quarterly Growth of Indian GDP (%) from 2008 to 2011-12.01/11/13 5
  • Sectorial Outlook After an impressive growth of 7 percent in 2010-11, the Agricultural growth rate has declined to 3.2 percent during first nine months of this year, perhaps also contributed by a high base effect. For the first time in 27 months, the industrial growth recorded a negative growth of 5.1 percent in October 2011. Although it later reverted back to 6 percent in November.01/11/13 6
  • Consumption and investment demand supportsgrowth during FY11. However, the investment demandfalls sharply during Q3 FY11.01/11/13 7
  • Quick glance at the year that was01/11/13 8
  • After a setback during FY10, agriculture sectoroutput rebounded strongly during FY11. While theservices sector remains resilient, industrial activityconsolidates.01/11/13 9
  • Fiscal Development and Public Finance Rapid fiscal consolidation was effected in 2010-11 with fiscal deficit dropping to 4.8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) from 6.5 per cent of GDP in 2009-10. With a sharp deceleration in real GDP growth, particularly in the industry sector and continued high levels of prices in key commodities, a slippage is likely in the deficit target.01/11/13 10
  • Fiscal Developments and PublicFinanceTrends in Deficits of Central Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 Column6Government Revenue Deficit as percent ofYear Revenue Deficit Fiscal Deficit Primary Deficit Fiscal Deficit ( As per cent of GDP)2003-04 3.6 4.5 0 802004-05 2.4 3.9 0 61.53846152005-06 2.5 4 0.4 62.52006-07 1.9 3.3 -0.2 57.57575762007-08 1.1 2.5 -0.9 442008-09 4.5 6 2.6 752009-10 5.2 6.5 3.2 802010-11 P 3.2 4.8 1.8 66.6666667 01/11/13 112011-12 BE 3.4 4.6 1.6 73.9130435
  • Cont…. The macroeconomic situation at the time of formulation of Budget 2011-12 looked positive, even though there was some concern about industrial slowdown. The persistence of inflationary pressures and consequent demand slowdown had their impact on public finances with rising costs impairing profit margins and thereby affecting levels of growth in corporate income tax and central excise. With global commodity prices remaining high and given limited flexibility in domestic price setting, there have been some expenditure additional ties with implications for the levels of deficit – both revenue and fiscal.01/11/13 12
  • Cont…. The higher outgo in terms of tax refunds, the lower levels of non-tax revenues and the state of the equities market that was inappropriate for achieving the planned disinvestment in the first nine months of the current fiscal make it a challenge to reach the budgeted revenues in the current fiscal. At the same time global crude oil prices (Indian basket) averaged US $ 110.1/bbl in the first nine months, which was much higher than what was assumed at the time of budget formulation. Together with the fact that headline inflation has been high even with limited pass through of fuel prices, these have implications for higher levels of subsidies. It is likely that deficit calculations may have to factor in additional expenditure.01/11/13 13
  • Balance of Payments As in 2008, the transmission of the crisis has been mainly through the balance-of-payments (BoP) channel. Export growth has decelerated in the third quarter of fiscal 2011-12, while imports have remained high, partly because of continued high international oil prices. At the same time, foreign institutional investment flows have declined, straining the capital account and the rupee exchange rate that touched an all-time low of Rs. 54.23 per US dollar on 15 December 2011.01/11/13 14
  • Balance of Payments01/11/13 15
  • State of the Economy and Prospects The Indian economy is estimated to grow by 6.9 per cent in 2011- 12, after having grown at the rate of 8.4 per cent in each of the two preceding years. This indicates a slowdown compared not just to the previous two years but 2003 to 2011 (except 2008-9). The manufacturing sector grew by 2.7 per cent and 0.4 per cent in the second and third quarters of 2011-12. Food inflation, in particular, has come down to around zero, with most of the remaining WPI inflation being driven by non-food manufacturing products. The slowing inflation reflects the lagged impact of actions taken by the RBI and the government.01/11/13 16
  • State of the Economy and ProspectsRate of Growth of GDP at Factor Cost at 2004-2005 ColumnPrices (per cent) Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 Column6 7 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 PE QE AEAgriculture, forestry & fishing 5.1 4.2 5.8 0.1 1 7 2.5Mining & quarrying 1.3 7.5 3.7 2.1 6.3 5 -2.2Manufacturing 10.1 14.3 10.3 4.3 9.7 7.6 3.9Electricity, gas & water supply 7.1 9.3 8.3 4.6 6.3 3 8.3Construction 12.8 10.3 10.8 5.3 7 8 4.8Trade, hotels, transport & communication 12.1 11.7 10.7 7.6 10.3 11.1 11.2Financing, insurance, real estate &business services 12.6 14 12 12 9.4 10.4 9.1Community, social & personal services 7.1 2.8 6.9 12.5 12 4.5 5.9GDP at factor cost 9.5 9.6 9.3 6.7 8.4 8.4 6.9Source : CSO (Central Statistics Office).Notes: PE : Provisional Estimate, QE: Quick Estimate, AE: Advance 01/11/13 17Estimate.
  • Quarterly Growth Rate for first three quarters (per cent)Colu Quarterly Growth Rate for first three quarters Columnmn1 (per cent) Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 Column6 7 2010-11 2011-12 Sector Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 1Agriculture, forestry & fishing 3.1 4.9 11 3.9 3.2 2.7 Industry 8.3 5.7 7.6 5.1 3.2 2.6 2mining & quarrying 6.9 7.3 6.1 1.8 -2.9 -3.1 3Manfacturing 9.1 6.1 7.8 7.2 2.7 0.4 4Electricity, gas & water supply 2.9 0.3 3.8 7.9 9.8 9 5Construction 8.4 6 8.7 1.2 4.3 7.2 Service 10 9.1 7.7 10 9.3 8.9 6Trade, hotels, transport & communication 12.7 10.8 9.8 12.8 9.9 9.2 7Financing, insurance, real estate & business services 10 10.4 11.2 9.1 10.5 9 8Community, social & personal services 4.4 4.5 -0.1 5.6 6.6 7.9 Total GDP at factor cost 8.5 7.6 8.3 7.7 6.9 6.1 01/11/13 18 Source: CSO
  • Sectoral Composition of GDPSectoral Composition of GDP Column1 Column2 Column3Year Agriculture Industry Services1950-51 53.1 16.6 30.31960-61 48.7 20.5 30.81970-71 42.3 24 33.81980-81 36.1 25.9 381990-91 29.6 27.7 42.72000-01 22.3 27.3 50.42010-11QE 14.5 27.8 57.72011-12AE 13.9 27 59 01/11/13 19Source: Calculated from CSO data.
  • Services Sector The economy has successfully navigated the turbulent years of the recent global economic crisis because of the vitality of this sector in the domestic economy and its prominent role in India’s external economic interactions. India’s performance in terms of this indicator is not only above that of other emerging developing economies, but also very close to that of the top developed countries. Among the top 12 countries with highest overall GDP in 2010, India ranks 8 and 11 in overall GDP and services GDP respectively. In terms of compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the period 2001-10, China at 11.3 per cent and India at 9.4 per cent show very high services sector growth.01/11/13 20
  • Services GDP The share of services in India’s GDP at factor cost (at current prices) increased from 33.5 per cent in 1950-1 to 55.1 per cent in 2010-11 and to 56.3 per cent in 2011-12 as per Advance Estimates (AE). With a 16.9 per cent share, trade, hotels, and restaurants as a group is the largest contributor to GDP among the various services’ subsectors, followed by financing, insurance, real estate, and business services with a 16.4 per cent share. Community, social, and personal services with a share of 14.3 per cent is in third place. Construction is at fourth place with an 8.2 per cent share.01/11/13 21
  • Performance of India’s Services Sector: Some IndicatorsColumn1 Column2 Column3 Column4Period Column5Column6Sector Indicators Unit 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12Aviation Airline passengers (domestic and international) Million 49.5 (a) 54.5 (a) 64.5 (a) 59.3 (a) 9265.3Telecom Telecom connections (wireline and wireless) lakh 4297.25 6212.8 8463.2(b)Tourism Foreign tourist arrivals Million 5.28 (a) 5.17 (a) 5.78 (a) 6.29 (a) Foreign exchange earnings from tourist arrivals US $ million 1183211394(e) 14193 (e) 16564 (e)Shipping Gross tonnage of Indian shipping Million GT 9.28 9.69 10.4511.06(d) No. of ships Numbers 925 1003 10711122(d)Ports Port traffic Million tonnes 530.53 561.09 570.03488.8 (c) 704.81Railways Freight traffic by railways Million tonnes 833.31 887.99 832.75(b) 466968 Net tonne kilometres of railways Million 538226 584760 444515(b)Storage Storage capacity Lakh MT 105.25 105.98 102.4799.81(b) No. of warehouses Numbers 499 487 479469 (b)Sources : Directorate General of Civil Aviation, Telecom Regulatory Authority of India,Ministry of Tourism, Ministry of Shipping, Ministry of Railways and Central WarehousingCorporation .(compiled byEXIM Bank of India).Notes : GT is gross tonnage. 01/11/13(a) calendar years, for example 2007-8 for 2007. (b) April - December. (c) April – January. 22(d) As on 1 January, 2012. (e) Advance estimates by the Ministryof Tourism
  • Industry Industrial growth in the country has, in terms of long run trend, remained aligned with the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP). Employment in the industrial sector increased from 64.6 million persons in 1999-2000 to 100.7 million persons in 2009-10 . The share of industry in total employment increased from 16.2 per cent in 1999-2000 to 21.9 per cent in 2009-10 . However, the increase was largely on account of expansion of employment opportunities in the construction sector, from 17.5 million in 1999-2000 to 44.2 million in 2009-10.01/11/13 23
  • Industry01/11/13 24
  • Cont…. The index of industrial production (IIP), released each month, is the key indicator of industrial performance. Recent industrial growth, measured in terms of IIP, new IIP series with 2004-5 as base was released in June 2011, Growth had reached 15.5 per cent in 2007-8 and the started decelerating. Initial deceleration in industrial growth was largely on account of the global economic meltdown. There was, however, a recovery in industrial growth from 2.5 per cent in 2008-9 to 5.3 per cent in 2009-10 and 8.2 per cent in 2010- 11.01/11/13 25
  • Contribution to IIP Growth- April December (per cent)Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 Column6 Weight 2008 2009 2010 2011Mining 6.4 32.1 9.4 -8.3Manufacturing 89.4 46.8 85.6 85.6Electricity 4.2 21.2 5 22.6Basic goods 16.2 64.8 27.8 65.7Capital goods 52.2 -52.9 30.2 -12Intermediates 3.7 24.1 13.6 -3.3Consumer Goods 28 64 28.4 49.4Durables 32.7 67.3 23 21.3Non-durables -4.8 -3.3 5.5 28.1 Source:EconomicDivision,Department ofEconomic 01/11/13 26Affiar
  • Employment in the Organized Sector Employment growth in the organized sector, public and private combined, has increased by 1.9 per cent in 2010, which is lower than the annual growth for the previous year. The annual growth rate for the private sector was much higher than that for the public sector. However, in respect of both sectors, annual increase in employment had slowed down in 2010 vis-à-vis 2009. The share of women in organized-sector employment was 20.4 per cent in 2010 March end and has remained nearly constant in recent years.01/11/13 27
  • Overall Employment in Public and Private Sectors Colum Percentage change Percentage changeSector Employment (in lakh) as on 31 March Column1 n2 2009/2008 2010/2009 2008 2009 2010Public 176.74 177.95 178.62 0.684621478 0.376510256Private 98.75 103.77 108.46 5.083544304 4.519610677Total 275.48 281.72 287.08 2.265137215 1.902598325(Women) -55.12 -55.8 -58.59Source : Annual Employment Review 2010 & 2009, Directorate General ofEmployment and Training, Ministry of Labour and Employment. 01/11/13 28
  • Performance of the Mahatma Gandhi NREGA (NationalOverview) from 2006-07 to 2010-1101/11/13 29
  • Households provided employment01/11/13 30
  • Percentage share of women in totalperson days generated01/11/13 31
  • Prices and Monetary Management Monetary policy remained focused on controlling inflation and anchoring inflationary expectations, with 13 adjustments in policy rates since March 2010, which has slowed growth. These effects, coupled with a favourable base effect in prices and continued global slowdown. Expected to moderate inflation to around 6.5 to 7.0 per cent by March 2012; inflation is expected to come down further during 2012-13.01/11/13 32
  • Annual Average Inflation by Major Heads in WPIColumn1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 Column6 Column7 Column8 (Per cent) 2011-12 (Apr.-Jan.)Commodities Weight 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 (Apr.- Jan.) PAll commodities 100 4.47 6.59 4.74 8.05 3.8 9.55 9.11Primary articles 20.12 4.3 9.62 8.33 11.05 12.66 18.41 9.91Food articles 14.34 5.38 9.62 6.97 9.09 15.27 16.75 7.15Non-food articles 4.26 -3.32 5.8 11.86 12.87 5.47 20.49 12.27Minerals 1.52 15.15 18.64 11.84 22.08 8.79 26.74 24.15Fuel & power 14.91 13.58 6.46 0.03 11.57 -2.11 12.24 13.67Coal 2.09 17.6 0.09 3.38 24.3 3.43 5.07 13.26Mineral oils 9.36 16.73 9.14 -0.9 12.35 -4.29 16.03 17.12Electricity 3.45 2.57 2.66 0.84 0.19 0.96 5.74 1.17Manufacturedproducts 64.97 2.42 5.66 4.78 6.16 2.22 5.46 7.58Food products 9.97 1.19 5.29 3.54 8.69 13.49 4.26 7.35Beverages, tobacco& products 1.76 4.66 5.1 6.52 9.52 6.11 7.08 11.81Textiles 7.33 -1.06 1.88 0.73 1.62 3.43 11.05 9.51Wood & woodproducts 0.59 5.74 5.84 6.69 9.49 9.6 4.03 8Paper & paperproducts 2.03 3.63 4.6 2.96 4.2 2.2 4.84 5.94Leather & leatherproducts 0.84 4.25 7.95 3.06 5.47 4.93 -0.92 1.76Rubber & plasticproducts 2.99 1.91 5.61 4.28 4.53 0.74 5.98 6.82Chemicals & theirproducts 12.02 3.79 4.96 3.57 4.64 -0.26 5 8.74Non-metallicmineral products 2.56 3.41 11.58 11.19 2.63 6.97 2.59 5.52Basic metals, alloys& products 10.75 2.23 9.28 10.29 11.96 -6.12 8.1 11.12Machinery &machine tools 8.93 3.58 6.31 3.65 2.89 0.46 2.73 3.11Transport,equipment/parts 5.21 2.69 2.22 2.47 5.36 3.08 2.96 3.54 01/11/13 33Source : The Office of the Economic Adviser (OEA), Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP).Note : P : Provisional.
  • Cont… Inflation in primary articles has declined drastically, falling to 2.25 per cent by January 2012. Inflation in fuel has continued to remain high during the last two years. Inflation in manufactured products had started to accelerate since January 2011, remaining range-bound between 7 and 8 per cent in 2011, due to a surge in metal and chemical prices, but it has also recently started to moderate.01/11/13 34
  • Contribution to WPI inflation by majorgroups (per cent)01/11/13 35
  • Financial Intermediation and Markets Financial markets in India have acquired greater depth and liquidity over the years. Since the Indian financial system is bank dominated, banks’ ability to withstand stress is critical to overall financial stability. The financial market infrastructure continues to function without any major disruption. With further globalization, consolidation, deregulation, and diversification of the financial system, the banking business may become more complex and riskier. Issues like risk and liquidity management and enhancing skill therefore assume greater significance.01/11/13 36
  • Movement of Select Monetary ParametersColumn1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 Column6 (per cent)Parameters   Growth rates as on 2 December 2011     Year-on-year  Yearly variation Financial-year basis   basis    2009-10 2010-11 2010-11 2011-12 2010-11 2011-12M0 17 19.1 6.4 0.7 22.3 12.8M1 18.2 9.8 4 -0.5 17 5M3 16.8 16 8.5 8.8 15.7 16.3Source : RBI. 01/11/13 37
  • Deregulation of Interest Rate onSavings Bank Deposits A  major  component  of  the  financial  sector  reform  process  pursued  by India has been deregulation of a complex structure of deposit and  lending interest rates. Interest  rates  on  Foreign  Currency  Non-Resident  [FCNR(B)]  deposits continue to remain regulated by the RBI.01/11/13 38
  • Movements in deposit and lending ratesColumn1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 (per cent)Interest rates Dec.- 2010 Mar.- 2011 Jun. -2011 Sept.-2011 Dec.-2011I. Domestic deposit rates(i) Public Sector Banks(a) Up to 1 year 1.00-8.25 1.00-9.75 1.00-9.15 1.00-9.55 1.00-9.55(b) 1 - 3 years 7.00-8.50 8.00-9.75 8.25-9.75 8.55-9.75 8.55-9.75(c) Above 3 years 7.00-8.75 7.75-9.75 8.00-9.50 8.00-9.50 8.00-9.50(ii) Private Sector Banks(a) Up to 1 year 2.50-8.50 2.50-9.30 2.50-9.30 3.00-9.40 3.00-9.25(b) 1 - 3 years 7.25-9.00 7.75-10.10 8.00-10.50 8.00-10.50 8.00-10.50(c) Above 3 years 7.00-9.25 7.00-10.00 8.00-10.00 8.00-10.00 8.00-10.10(iii) Foreign banks(a) Up to 1 year 1.25-8.00 2.30-9.00 2.50-9.25 3.00-10.00 3.50-10.00(b) 1 - 3 years 3.50-8.50 3.50-9.10 3.50-10.00 3.50-9.75 3.50-9.75(c) Above 3 years 3.50-8.50 3.50-9.10 3.50-9.50 4.25-9.50 4.25-9.50II. Base Rate(i) Public-sector banks 7.60-9.00 8.25-9.50 9.25-10.00 10.00-10.75 10.00-10.75(ii) Private-sector Banks 7.00-9.00 8.25-10.00 8.50-10.50 9.70-11.00 10.00-11.25(iii) Foreign Banks 5.50-9.00 6.25-9.50 6.25-9.50 6.25-10.75 6.25-10.75III. BPLR(i) Public-sector banks 12.00-14.00 13.00-14.50 13.50-15.00 14.25-15.75 14.25-15.75(ii) Private-sector banks 13.00-18.00 13.50-19.25 13.75-19.75 13.75-20.50 14.75-21.00(iii) Foreign banks 10.50-16.00 10.50-16.00 10.50-16.00 10.50-16.50 10.50-16.50Source : RBI. 01/11/13 39Note : BPLR is benchmark prime lending rate.
  • RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FUND(RIDF) The  annual  allocation  of  funds  under  the  RIDF  has  gradually  increased from ` 2,000 crore in 1995-96  (RIDF I) to ` 18,000 crore  in 2011-12 (RIDF XVII). Aggregate allocations have reached Rs. 1,34,000 crore. During 2011-12, ` 6,118 crore was disbursed to the states under the  RIDF up to end December 2011.01/11/13 40
  • Disbursements under the RIDF(RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FUND) during 2011-12 (As on 31 December 2011)Column1 (Rs. crore) Column2 Column3Region Disbursement   Achievement Target Achievement (%)South 3200 1711 53.46875West 2060 514 24.9514563North 4510 2254 49.9778271Central 1080 411 38.0555556East 3540 1014 28.6440678NER & Sikkim 610 214 35.0819672TOTAL 15000 6118 40.7866667Source : National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development 01/11/13 41(NABARD).
  • Measuring India’s EnvironmentalPerformance In a recent ranking of environmental performance (EPI 2012), India  was placed 122 out of 132 countries. Its performance was better on  protecting  its  forests  (rank  21)  and  fisheries  (39),  and  on  climate  change (55). But,  Poorer ratings were given to air quality (132), agriculture (126), and  water resources (122). Although  India  ranks  among  top  five  countries  in  terms  of  GHG  emissions, its per capita emissions are much lower than those of the  developed countries.01/11/13 42
  • The Euro zone and India: The  eurozone,  though  distinct  from  the  European  Union  (EU)  is  a  major subset of the EU.  The  eurozone  and  EU  account  for  about  19  and  25  per  cent  respectively of global GDP.  The  EU  is  a  major  trade  partner  for  India  accounting  for  about  20  per  cent  of  India’s  exports  and  is  an  important  source  of  foreign  direct investment (FDI).01/11/13 43
  • Cont… Nevertheless,  India  is  projected  to  be  the  second-fastest-growing  major  economy  (7  per  cent)  after  China  (8.2  per  cent)  as  per  the  IMF. In the medium term, challenges for the global economy continue to  emanate from the way the eurozone crisis is addressed.01/11/13 44
  • India and the Global EconomyColu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Column1 Growth of the GDP (%) (Y-o-y) Column2 Column3 mn4 Column5 Column6 mn7 mn8 mn9 mn10 mn11 mn12 mn13 Germ JapaYear World Advanced US EU UK Eurozone any n B R I*# C* S2010 5.2 3.2 3 2 2.1 1.8 3.6 4.4 7.5 4 9.9 10.4 2.9Q1 2.2 1 1.2 1 2.4 5 9.3 3 9.4 11.9 1.6Q2 3.3 2.2 2.5 2.1 4.1 4.5 8.7 5.2 8.8 10.3 3Q3 3.5 2.4 3 2.1 4 5.2 7 3.4 8.9 9.6 3.3Q4 3.1 2.2 1.7 2 3.8 3.2 5.3 4.4 8.3 9.7 3.62011 3.8 1.6 1.8 1.6 0.9 1.5 3 -0.9 2.9 4.1 7.4 9.2 3.1Q1 1.2 2.2 2.4 1.6 2.4 4.6 0.1 4.2 3.8 7.8 9.7 3.7Q2 1.6 1.7 0.5 1.6 2.9 -1.7 3.3 3.5 7.7 9.5 3.3Q3 1.5 1.4 0.4 1.3 2.6 -0.6 2.2 4.9 6.9 9.1 2.9Q4 1.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 2 -1na na 6.1 8.9na2012(P) 3.3 1.8 -0.1 0.6 -0.5 0.3 1.7 3 3.3 7 8.2 2.5Source : Organization for Economic Cooperation andDevelopment (OECD) Principal Global indicators andIMFWEO. 01/11/13Notes : P Projection from IMF World Economic outlook 45January 2012 update.
  • Savings and Investment: One of the features of the ‘new normal’ in the world economy is the  way savings as well as investment rates are  distributed between the  advanced and emerging economies. India’s  investment  rates,  for  example,  have  risen  some  12  percentage  points  of  GDP  from  the  mid-1990s  to  around  35.1  per  cent in 2010-11.01/11/13 46
  • Saving and investment rates – 201101/11/13 47
  • THANK YOU01/11/13 48