Contents Country Fact Sheet 2 Executive Summary 3 Political Overview 4 Economic Overview 5 Market Overview and Strategy 11 Company Reviews Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC 17 Hatton National Bank PLC 23 Sampath Bank PLC 29 National Development Bank PLC 37 Tokyo Cement Company (Lanka) PLC 45 Royal Ceramics PLC 51 Colombo Dockyard PLC 57 Distilleries Company of Sri Lanka PLC 63 Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings PLC 69 Dialog Axiata PLC 75 Aitken Spence PLC 83 John Keells Holdings PLC 91 JKSB Contact Information 99A JKSB Research Publication
2 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market StrategyCountry Fact Sheet Income distribution Gini coefficient of household income (2009) : 0.47GOVERNMENT Mean household Income (‘09) : Rs. 35,495 (US$ 320) Median household Income (‘09) : Rs. 24,106 (US$ 217)Unicameral Parliament: 225 seats; members elected by popular vote on the basis Poverty of an open-list, proportional representation system by Poverty Head Count Ratio (2009/10) : 7.6% electoral district to serve six-year terms Population below US $ 1 a day (1990-2005) : 5.6% Population below US $ 2 a day (1990-2005) : 41.6%General Elections: Last held in April 2010 (next - 2016) Human Development Index (2010)Chief of state: President Mahinda Rajapaksa (since 19 - Rank among 169 countries : 91 November 2005); The President is both the chief of state and head of government Employment Unemployment rate (3Q 2010) : 4.9%Presidential Elections: President elected by popular (Excluding Northern Province) vote for a six-year term (eligible for multiple terms); Employed Persons election last held on 26th January 2010 (next to be held Agriculture : 31.2% in 2017) Industry : 25.1% Services : 44.3%Cabinet: Cabinet appointed by the President in consultation with the Prime Minister. Water Supply Access to safe drinking water : 84.8%PHYSICAL FEATURES AND CLIMATE Access to pipe borne water : 35.5% Total area : 65,610 sq. km Electricity Land area : 62,705 sq.km Households with Electricity : 86% Inland waters : 2,905 sq.km Per capita Electricity Consumption (kWh) : 412.8 Highest elevation : 2,524m/8,281ft Low country (min/max) : 24.4oC – 31.7oC Communication Hill country (min/max) : 17.1oC – 26.3oC Fixed lines per 100 persons : 17 Mobile Subscriber penetration (SIMs) : 79% Avg. Annual Rainfall : 2397mm Internet & Email (Fixed) penetration : 1.26% Mobile Broadband penetration : 0.58%POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS Mid year population 2010 : 20.65mn Public Health Age distribution (‘000) – 2009 Public Hospital Beds per 1000 persons : 3.4 0 - 14 yrs : 5,205 (25.1%) Persons per Doctor : 1500 15 - 59 yrs : 12,991 (62.9%) Gov. Expenditure on Health- % of GDP : 1.5% 60 years and over : 2,457(11.9%) Population density (per sq km) : 318 persons Crude birth rate (2009) : 18.4 per ‘000 Education School Density (Area per school – sq km) : 6.5 Crude death rate (2009) : 5.9 per ‘000 Primary/Secondary education (5-19yrs) : 96.1% Rate of natural inc. (2009) : 12.6 per ‘000 Pupil/teacher ratio (Public Schools-2009) : 18 Infant mortality (2006) : 10.0 per ‘000 Eligibility for public universities : 62.5% Dependency ratio (2006) : 48.35% Admission to university as a % of eligible : 16% Average household size (2009) : 4.0 Gov. Expenditure on Education - % of GDP : 2.1%Life Expectancy (2007) Banking Density Male : 70.3 years Commercial Bank Branches (per 100k persons) :10.8 Female : 77.9 years Area (sq km) per commercial bank branch : 29.41 ATM’s per 100,000 persons : 9.6Literacy rate (2008) Credit Cards per 100 persons : 3.77 Overall : 91.3% Male : 92.8% Female : 90.0%Source : CBSL, Department of Census and Statistics
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 3Executive Summary>> With the peace dividend filtering in, the economy is expected to have grown at8% in CY2010 having gathered healthy momentum with 5 consecutive quarters ofaccelerating growth from 2Q2009 to 2Q2010.>> The economy has witnessed a significant improvement in business sentimentand business activity stemming from a benign interest rate regime and fiscal reformsresulting in a lower and simplified taxation and tariff structure. Furthermore overallmacro level stability and an increased infrastructure spend together with an upturn indomestic demand have collectively underpinned a strengthened economy.>> The resurgence of intra provincial trade with the reintegration of the North andEast provinces to the main stream economy and the significant infrastructure spendacross the island in road, power, port and rural infrastructure development togetherwith the consequent multiplier effects feeding into increased domestic consumptionunderlie our medium term expectations of 8%+ GDP expansion. Sustaining thisgrowth momentum beyond will however require a significant increase in FDI acrossa number of sectors to drive scale and productivity enhancements in the economy.>> We anticipate the fiscal deficit would decline to 7% of GDP for 2011stemming from lower interest expense on domestic financing, higher tax revenuesand lower defense expenditure relative to GDP.>> The loss of crop production due to the floods earlier this year will add furthersupply side pressure on food prices which we expect would push the CCPI up to8.8% by end 2011. The property market is still relatively subdued and non-food andnon-fuel inflation still remains under check although demand driven inflationaryeffects may begin to be evident towards the latter half of the year. The immediateconcerns for this year on inflation remain on supply side shocks from food and moresignificantly the impact on oil prices from the recent events in North Africa andthe Middle East. With inflation trending higher we believe that interest rates havebottomed out and prime lending rates may rise by 50bps by year end with prospectsof strong credit growth remaining intact.>> The ASPI has risen by 16.2% for the year to date on the back of a 96% increasein CY10 and a 280% increase since the end of the war. The recent upward movementin the ASPI is largely a result of strong retail and local HNI participation which hasseen significant price movements in second tier and illiquid stocks not necessarilyreflective of broad based healthy buying interest.>> Sustained local retail buying interest in the market has pushed near termmarket multiples to 15.2x FY12E earnings, with aggressive buying on selected midcap and speculative trading on illiquid counters having pushed the indices higher atan excessive pace thus far this year warranting a modest correction.>> Businesses will benefit from increased domestic demand in the medium but willalso be required to invest in building scale and enhancing productivity in anticipation ofnew competition that is inevitably ushered in by an improved operating environment>> We remain bullish on the medium to long term earnings growth prospects ofconstruction related Manufacturing, Banking and Leisure group stocks. A mediumterm outlook of sustainable normalized earnings of approximately 25% should see theindex trend higher over the medium to long term
4 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy Political Overview >> With the removal of the constitutional bar on the president having a two term limit on the 8th September 2010, Sri Lanka started a new chapter in its political history. With the ruling United Peoples Front Alliance (UPFA) having only 144 seats the amendment had a smooth passage with 161 members voting in favour, and only 17 voting against. Current administration firms up hold on power >> President Rajapaksa has astutely levered his post war popularity into what appears will be a long stay in the seat of power. The dominance of the Rajapakse administration is also partially due to the weakness of Sri Lanka’s second major political party the United National Party (UNP). Wracked by internal dissension the party has seen members defect once again to the ruling party while the remaining MPs have publically come out against Ranil Wickremasinghe’s party leadership. >> The executive president enjoys enormous powers under the 1978 constitution. He can dissolve the parliament and declare emergency. He also appoints judges, heads of armed forces and police, election commissioners and secretaries to the government. In a state of emergency, the president can even promulgate regulations to override laws enacted by the parliament. The state of emergency continues to be in force even now though the war ended in May 2009. Consolidation of power should deliver stability >> Sri Lanka has long suffered under political uncertainty with wafer thin majorities in Parliament exacerbating the effects of the turmoil of the nearly three decade long ethnic war. This focus on political uncertainty due to the possibility of a change in regime means many investment decisions were postponed. It is hoped that this current consolidation of political power will give an environment of stability in which faster economic growth can occur. The budget delivered in November 2010 underlined the importance the government places on catching up on the economic development that the country forfeited during its period of turmoil. >> Much of the success of the war effort can attributed to the Rajapakse administration’s foreign policy which prioritized improving relations with regional powers like India and China as well the Middle East. These relationships are also important from an economic standpoint. India and China are committing substantial amounts to investment in infrastructure in post-war Sri Lanka. China is now Sri Lanka’s largest donor of developmental assistance after Japan. India is also one of Sri Lanka’s most important trade partners and is one of the largest sources of tourists into the country. Sri Lanka’s increasing links to the Asian region should prove important in continuing export led economic growth in the coming years.
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 5 Economic Overview GDP Growth10.00 % Quarterly GDP Growth (%) >> With the peace dividend filtering in, the economy is expected to have grown 9.00 8.00 at 8% in CY2010 having gathered healthy momentum with 5 consecutive quarters 7.00 6.00 of accelerating growth from 2Q2009 to 2Q2010. The last 8 months have seen 5.00 4.00 a sharp improvement in business activity after a rebound in the wider economy 3.00 2.00 lagged initial expectations as businesses adjusted to an abrupt end in hostilities in 1.00 0.00 mid 2009 and then held back till the conclusion of parliamentary and legislative elections in early 2010. The economy has witnessed a significant improvement 1Q CY2000 2Q CY2000 3Q CY2000 4Q CY2000 1Q CY2001 2Q CY2001 3Q CY2001 4Q CY2001 1Q CY2002 2Q CY2002 3Q CY2002 4Q CY2002 1Q CY2003 2Q CY2003 3Q CY2004 4Q CY2004 1Q CY2005 2Q CY2005 3Q CY2005 4Q CY2005 1Q CY2006 2Q CY2006 3Q CY2006 4Q CY2006 1Q CY2007 2Q CY2007 3Q CY2007 4Q CY2007 1Q CY2008 2Q CY2008 3Q CY2008 4Q CY2008 1Q CY2009 2Q CY2009 3Q CY2009 4Q CY2009 1Q CY2010 2Q CY2010 3Q CY2010 4QCY2003 1QCY2004 2QCY2004-1.00-2.00-3.00 in business sentiment and business activity stemming from a benign interest rate-4.00-5.00 regime and fiscal reforms resulting in a lower and simplified taxation and tariff structure. Furthermore overall macro level stability and an increased infrastructure spend together with an upturn in domestic demand have collectively underpinned a strengthened economy. >> Credit growth which was marginal for much of 2008 and marginally negative for 2009 picked up sharply in the 2H of 2010 to end the year up an estimated 22.6% for CY2010. The resurgence of intra provincial trade with the reintegration of the North and East provinces to the main stream economy, the significant and simultaneous infrastructure spend across the island in road, power, port and rural infrastructure development and the consequent multiplier effects feeding into increased domestic consumption underlie our medium term expectations of 8%+ GDP expansion. Sustaining this growth momentum beyond will however require a significant increase in FDI across a number of sectors to drive scale and productivity enhancements in the economy. >> Severe floods earlier this year in the North Central and Eastern provinces will result in a significant reduction in agricultural production in the first half of the year as a result of lost cultivation and damage caused to irrigation infrastructure. >> The agriculture forestry and fisheries sector recorded a 6.2% growth for the 3Q stemming from the highest ever recorded paddy production during the 2009/2010 ‘Maha Season’; which accounts for approximately 65% of total paddy production in the country. The ‘Yala Season’ also witnessed a 21.4% increase in the area harvested over the previous year while yields also improved. The total gross area harvested during the ‘Maha’ and ‘Yala’ season in 2009 amounted to 943,000Ha which could increase by as much as 10%-15% in 2011/2012 should weather conditions be favourable, with increased land in the North and East being cultivated. The revised production figure following the floods for the ‘Maha Season’ is 2.3mn MT which is marginally lower than the 2009 output and a 24.5% decline for this years expected crop levels. Other field crops have seen a similar effect in loss of cultivated area. The fisheries sector grew by 14.4% in the 3Q 2010 with marine fishing growing by 15.3% with some of the most fertile fishing grounds of the North and East coast representing two thirds of the country’s coast line seeing increased production. Output of the country’s traditional exports witnessed sound growth with record prices for tea and rubber benefiting from strong external demand for commodities. >> The commercial construction sector is gathering pace with loan disbursements for construction related activity increasing by 25.2% in the 3Q 2010 while cement production was up 20.6% yoy for the first 11 months of 2010.
6 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy A strong pipeline of large scale infrastructure projects relating to expressways, increased power generation capacity, sea ports and airports as well as rural infrastructure development initiatives across the island will sustain this growth momentum over the medium term. The manufacturing segment which accounts for nearly 75% of industrial output in the country recorded steady growth of 6.8% in the 3Q with the garment sector remaining resilient following the suspension of the EU GSP + facility whilst other sub sectors will see increased capacity utilization. >> Expansion of the import trade sector as well as a pick up in domestic trade into the North and East provinces and increased consumer spending across the island is expected to drive growth in the services sector. Import trade increased by 11.8% in the 3Q 2010 benefiting from a reduction in import tariffs in July for motor vehicles and a whole range of consumer products. Credit penetration has also increased sharply with the Banking, Insurance and Real Estate sector expanding by 8.5% in the 3Q, with private sector credit growth which was moderate for the 1H 2010 increasing sharply up 25% upto November last year. We anticipate credit growth to the private sector to average at 25% over the next two years. The Hotel and Restaurant sector benefited from an anticipated 46% increase GDP Growth (%) Sector 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011EAgriculture 0.0 1.8 6.3 3.4 7.5 3.2 6.1 5.6 Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry -0.1 6.9 3.5 2.3 7.3 2.8 5.2 4.8 Fishing 0.5 -43.0 53.5 15.6 9.9 6.9 14.0 12.0Industry 5.4 8.0 8.1 7.6 5.9 4.2 8.0 8.6 Mining and Quarrying 5.5 17.8 24.2 19.2 12.8 8.2 11.0 10.0 Manufacturing 5.2 6.2 5.5 6.4 4.9 3.3 6.4 6.6 Electricity, Gas and Water 6.0 14.0 14.8 4.6 2.7 3.7 8.2 8.3 Construction 5.9 9.0 9.2 9.0 7.8 5.6 11.0 13.0Services 6.7 6.4 7.7 7.1 5.6 3.3 8.3 8.3 Wholesale and Retail Trade 7.4 6.4 7.1 6.1 4.7 -0.3 7.7 8.2 Hotels and Restaurants 21.5 -14.1 2.5 -2.3 -5.0 13.3 32.5 25.0 Transport and Communication 9.7 9.5 12.6 10.5 8.1 6.6 11.2 9.8 Banking, Insurance and Real Estate etc. 5.8 7.0 8.5 8.7 6.6 5.7 9.0 9.0Total GDP Growth 5.4 6.2 7.7 6.8 6.0 3.5 8.0 8.1% Share of Total GDP (Sectors / key sub sectors) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011EAgriculture 13.0 12.5 12.3 11.9 12.1 12.0 11.8 11.6 Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry 11.7 11.7 11.3 10.8 10.9 10.9 10.6 10.3 Fishing 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3Industry 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.8 Mining and Quarrying 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 Manufacturing 18.1 18.1 17.7 17.7 17.5 17.4 17.2 17.0 Electricity, Gas and Water 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Construction 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.8 7.1Services 59.3 59.4 59.5 59.6 59.5 59.3 59.5 59.7 Wholesale and Retail Trade 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.2 23.3 23.2 23.3 Hotels and Restaurants 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 Transport and Communication 11.5 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.1 Banking, Insurance and Real Estate etc. 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.1 Other 14.1 13.9 13.5 13.3 13.1 13.3 12.9 12.7
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 7 in tourist arrivals with the sector growing by 32.2% for the 3Q in 2010 which followed a 20.6% expansion in the sub sector in the 3Q 2009. The transportation sector is also expected to expand sharply over the medium term driven by growth in cargo throughput and container handling at the port which was up by 18.9% and 12.9% respectively in the 3Q. Increased air travel as well as passenger and goods transportation within the country will further augment growth in the sector. Fiscal Deficit >> Government revenue from taxes and grants increased by 14.4% for the first 11 months of CY10 whilst recurrent expenditure recorded a modest growth of just 3.7% in the same period, and as such we believe that approved estimates for CY10 of revenue to GDP of 14.8% and a budget deficit of 8% will be met. The budget proposals announced for 2011 express an intention to bring down the fiscal deficit to 6.8% in 2011 and 5% in 2012, with the initial MEFP attached to the LOI signed for the IMF Standby facility being to bring down the fiscal deficit to 5% by 2011. We anticipate the fiscal deficit would decline to 7% for 2011 stemming from lower interest expense on domestic financing, higher tax revenues and lower defense expenditure relative to GDP. Government Finance (% of GDP) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E Revenue and Grants 15.3% 16.8% 17.3% 16.6% 15.6% 15.1% 14.7% 14.8% Tax revenue 13.5% 13.7% 14.6% 14.2% 13.3% 12.8% 12.8% 12.6% Non tax revenue excl. Grants 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.9% Total expenditure 22.8% 23.8% 24.3% 23.5% 22.6% 24.9% 22.7% 21.8% Current expenditure 18.6% 18.1% 18.6% 17.4% 16.9% 18.2% 17.1% 16.9% Budget deficit -7.5% -7.0% -7.0% -6.9% -7.0% -9.9% -8.0% -7.0% >> The taxation reforms spelt out at budget proposals for 2011 announced on the 22nd of November were well received and marked significant changes with % CCPI Movement Points30.0 250 the state boldly reducing and simplifying taxation structures for corporates and27.024.0 200 individuals in a bid to improve revenues by facilitating growth as opposed to the21.0 imposition of a host of adhoc taxes as was seen in the past. We do not anticipate18.0 15015.0 a significant curtailment of recurrent expenditure in 2011 except for a moderate12.0 100 reduction in defense expenditure to GDP. 9.0 6.0 50 3.0 0.0 0 Inflation >> The CCPI has been trending higher from an annual average of 3.1% in Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 Jan-11 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 CCPI Annual Average Change (RHS) CCPI Point to Point Change (RHS) CCPI Index (LHS) February 2010 to 6.0% in January 2011 driven primarily by higher food prices which account for approximately 47% of the CCPI index. The loss of crop % Inflation and Interest Rate Movement production due to the floods earlier this year will add further supply side pressure 24.0 22.0 on food prices which we expect would push the CCPI up to 8.8% by end 2011, 20.0 which is subject to revision depending on movements in oil prices. 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 >> Increased food production in the North and East provinces and improved 8.0 yields should cushion the country’s exposure to imported inflation on food items 6.0 4.0 in the medium to long term although the country’s exposure to supply side shocks 2.0 0.0 still remains significant with its sensitivity to global commodity prices such as petroleum imports. The property market is still relatively subdued and non-food Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Sep-06 Dec-06 Sep-07 Dec-07 Sep-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Dec-09 Sep-10 Dec-10 Jan-06 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 CCPI Annual Average 364-day TB Yield
8 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy and non-fuel inflation still remains under check reflecting unutilized capacity in the system although demand driven inflationary effects may begin to be evident towards the latter half of the year. The immediate concerns for this year however remain on supply side shocks from food as mentioned earlier and more significantly the impact on oil prices from recent events in the Middle East. Key interest Rate Movements25.0022.50 Interest Rates20.0017.5015.00 >> Interest rates have continued to trend lower with the 1 yr T-bill and weighted12.50 average prime lending rate down to 7.33% and 9.12% from 9.47% and 10.83%10.00 7.50 respectively a year earlier. The Central Bank eased policy rates in January with the 5.00 Central Banks’ repurchase rate brought down by 25bps to 7.00% and the reverse 2.50 - repo rate down by 50bps to 8.50%. With inflation trending higher we believe that interest rates have bottomed out and prime lending rates may rise by 50bps by year Mar-99 Feb-02 Feb-05 Feb-08 Mar-10 Dec-97 Sep-01 Sep-04 Dec-05 Sep-07 Dec-08 May-98 May-06 May-09 Oct-98 Oct-06 Oct-09 Jan-11 Jan-00 Jan-03 Nov-00 Nov-03 Jul-05 Jul-08 Apr-01 Apr-07 Jun-00 Jun-03 Apr-04 Aug-99 Aug-02 Aug-10 364 day T Bill Yield (%) PLR (%) end with prospects of strong credit growth remaining intact. US$ M External Trade20000 50%15000 40% 30% External Trade10000 Exports 20% 5000 >> Export earnings for the first 11 months of 2010 were up 15.4% stemming 10% 0 0%-5000 -10% from industrial exports and agricultural exports. Industrial exports recorded a-10000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -20% 13.6% growth on the back of exports of product categories such as boats and rubber Exports (US$ m) (LHS) Imports (US$ m) (LHS) Trade Balance (US$ m) (LHS) products while garment exports increased by 3.7% in the same period. Much of Exports (% of GDP) - (RHS) Imports (% of GDP) - (RHS) Trade Balance (% of GDP) - (RHS) the growth in the sector stemmed from agricultural exports which grew by 21.7% accounting for 25.2% of exports for the period. This was largely due to high tea and rubber prices. >> The garment sector is expected to remain resilient despite the loss of the GSP + facility, aided by a modest recovery in key western markets and increasing labour costs in China and labour unrest in Bangladesh enhancing the local industries’ competitiveness. We expect exports to grow by 15.2% in CY10 and by 13.3% in CY11. Imports >> Total imports for the first 11 months of 2010 were up 32.6% driven by a 45.2% increase in import of consumer goods and a 33.6% increase in intermediate goods. The increase in consumer goods was predominately a result of non-food consumer goods led by motor vehicles while the 33.6% increase in intermediate goods was a result of a value driven growth of 45.8% in petroleum imports. Continued import of non-food consumer goods such as consumer electronics and motor vehicles together with an increasing oil import bill and import of industrial input materials is expected to see imports grow by 18% in CY11.
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 9 Summary of External Trade 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E In US$ m Agricultural Exports 939 965 1,065 1,153 1,299 1,507 1,855 1,690 2,050 2,415 Industrial Exports 3,630 3,977 4,506 4,948 5,381 5,968 5,758 5,305 6,016 6,710 Mineral Exports 90 84 120 144 137 128 98 89 96 120 Other 41 108 66 102 70 38 - - - - Total Exports 4,700 5,134 5,757 6,347 6,887 7,640 7,711 7,084 8,162 9,245 Consumer Good Imports 1,189 1,345 1,442 1,503 1,784 1,768 2,184 1,713 2,458 2,929 Intermediate Good Imports 3,522 3,949 4,828 5,458 6,161 6,751 8,719 5,928 7,965 8,815 Investment Good Imports 1,169 1,320 1,670 1,869 2,246 2,686 3,049 2,450 2,980 4,050 Other 125 60 61 33 65 92 139 115 160 170 Total Imports 6,005 6,674 8,001 8,863 10,256 11,297 14,091 10,206 13,563 15,964 Trade Balance (1,305) (1,540) (2,244) (2,516) (3,369) (3,657) (6,380) (3,122) (5,401) (6,719) Trade Deficit >> The trade deficit is expected to have widened by 73% for CY10 as a result of a sharp rise in imports which contracted in 2009. Garment and textile exports which accounted for approximately 46% of total exports in 2010 is expected to grow at just 6% in 2011, with total exports expected to grow at 13.3%. Anticipated growth in imports of 18% driven by petroleum products and non food consumer goods is expected to result in the trade deficit expanding by 24% in 2011. Remittances and External Reserves Exchange Rate Movement >> Net remittances have remained strong amounting to US$ 3.4bn for the firstLKR/Unit of foreign Currency 11 months in 2010, a 24.6% increase over the previous year. Total net remittances240230 are expected to amount to US$ 4.1bn CY11 substantially offsetting the trade220210200 deficit. Strong inflows to government securities in 2010 along with the sixth190180 tranche of the IMF stand by facility have pushed gross official reserves to US$170160 6.6bn, equivalent to 6 months of imports. Upto US$ 1.5bn has now been released150140 by the IMF as part of a US$ 2.6bn stand by facility.130120110 Exchange Rates100 Feb-11 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 2004 2006 US$ Sterling Euro >> The central bank has continued its stance of retaining a soft peg against the US$ which has prevented a sharper appreciation of the LKR against the US$. The local currency has appreciated by a marginal 0.03% against the US$ since the start of this year whilst depreciating by 2.67% and 1.99% against the Sterling and Euro respectively. Whilst we expect investment flows to remain strong in the current year the Central Bank is expected to continue to intervene to help exporters retain competitiveness and retain stability in the exchange rates
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 11 Market Overview and Strategy 14 Turnover - Rs. bn ASPI / MPI vs. Turnover Index 8,500 >> The ASPI has risen by 16.2% for the year to date on the back of a 96% 13 12 Turnover ASPI MPI 8,000 increase in 2010 and a 280% increase since the end of the war. The recent 7,500 upward movement in the ASPI is largely a result of strong retail and local HNI 11 10 7,000 9 6,500 8 7 6,000 participation which has seen significant price movements in second tier and illiquid 6 5 5,500 5,000 stocks not necessarily reflective of broad based healthy buying interest. Furthermore 4 3 4,500 4,000 the more liquid MPI index that contains most heavily traded large cap counters has increased by just 2% this year and is still 8.43% off its peak in early October 2010. 2 1 3,500 0 3,000 >> Average daily turnover levels in the market have increased from 2.4bn in 2010 15-Feb-09 02-Mar-09 17-Mar-09 10-Feb-10 13-Sep-09 28-Sep-09 12-Dec-09 27-Dec-09 01-May-09 16-May-09 31-May-09 13-Oct-09 28-Oct-09 11-Jan-10 01-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 31-Jan-09 26-Jan-10 12-Nov-09 27-Nov-09 15-Jul-09 30-Jul-09 01-Apr-09 16-Apr-09 15-Jun-09 30-Jun-09 14-Aug-09 29-Aug-09 to Rs. 3.64bn year to date. Expectations of 50 – 60 new listings in 2011/2012 will push turnover levels even higher with small to mid-sized listings conducted during Turnover - Rs. mn ASPI / MPI vs. Turnover Index the year so far attracting overwhelming local interest. These proposed listings include a host of finance companies whilst a few sizeable state run entities as well as 36 8500 34 8000 32 7500 30 28 26 7000 6500 firms in the retail, logistics and construction space are expected to attract significant 6000 24 22 5500 5000 institutional interest. 20 4500 18 >> The market has witnessed a fresh influx of new funds stemming from 4000 16 14 3500 12 3000 10 2500 8 6 2000 1500 1000 investors shifting money from low yield fixed income securities into equities. In 4 2 0 500 0 addition the market has also experienced a sharp rise in credit driven investments. Last year witnessed a doubling of active trading accounts in the system with market Date 23-May-02 20-Feb-03 01-Mar-06 04-Sep-07 16-Mar-09 15-Dec-09 10-May-10 23-Sep-10 09-Feb-11 04-Oct-02 19-Nov-03 11-Jan-05 11-Oct-05 29-Nov-06 18-Jan-08 22-Oct-08 09-Jul-03 14-Apr-04 27-Aug-04 11-Jun-08 03-Aug-09 02-Jun-05 19-Jul-06 24-Apr-07 velocity increasing from 26.3% in 2009 to 32.8% in 2010 and market capitalistaion Turnover ASPI MPI to GDP rising to 41%. Rs. (Mn) AVERAGE NET FOREIGN INVESTOR PARTICIPATION >> Foreign participation in the market which amounted to 30% of turnover in 160 120 2009 has declined to 19% in 2010. Foreign selling in the market has increased in 80 40 recent months with near term valuations looking less favourble in comparison to - regional peers although Sri Lanka ranks more favourably in terms of a sustainable May-09 May-10 Sep-09 Sep-10 Dec-09 Dec-10 Feb-09 Feb-10 Mar-09 Mar-10 Feb-11 Nov-09 Nov-10 Jan-09 Jan-10 Aug-09 Oct-09 Aug-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 (40) Jun-09 Jun-10 Apr-09 Apr-10 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jul-09 Jul-10 (80)(120) medium term earnings outlook. Several mid to large cap counters such as those in(160)(200) the Manufacturing and Banking sectors still hold sound medium to long term value(240)(280) with low double digit multiples.(320)(360)(400) Average Net Foreign Investor Participation (LHS) PER (x) EPS Growth (%) Country PBV (x) FY10 FY11E FY12E FY10 FY11E FY12E China 19.2 14.7 12.3 N/A 30.9 19.4 2.9 Hong Kong 14.7 12.6 11.0 21.5 16.1 15.1 2.1 India 16.3 17.1 14.4 18.1 -4.7 19.2 3.2 Indonesia 19.7 13.9 11.6 22.3 41.8 19.9 3.2 South Korea 15.0 10.1 9.0 17.1 48.9 11.9 1.3 Malaysia 17.1 14.9 13.4 15.8 15.0 10.9 2.4 Phillipines 12.4 12.4 11.0 N/A 0.2 12.4 2.3 Singapore 11.9 14.0 12.8 10.8 -15.0 10.0 1.7 Taiwan 15.4 13.1 11.7 8.6 17.6 11.8 2.0 Australia 17.3 14.0 12.1 16.6 23.7 15.3 2.1 New Zealand 50.8 15.4 13.0 48.7 230.0 18.8 1.5 Sri Lanka 39.6 19.0 15.2 -5.2 108.0 24.8 2.4 Source : Bloomberg, & JKSB Research
12 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy Sectoral earnings prospects >> Corporate earnings growth has also been strong with expectations for a 108% yoy growth in earnings for the current Dec/Mar financial year as businesses benefit from low finance expense and increased capacity utilization. The increase in volume driven growth across most sectors has resulted in several listed entities crossing breakeven thresholds and returning to profitability. Increased volumes are driving core earnings higher whether it is excess liquidity in the banks being mopped up by sharp growth in private sector credit, or increased capacity utilization at manufacturing plants, higher occupancy levels at hotels or even a modest rise in minutes of use among mobile phone subscribers. The current December 2010 quarterly results for 192 companies reported filings thus far in the earnings season amount to 84% yoy growth. Earnings are also driven by lower finance expense which has helped drive increased private investment with private sector credit growth expanding by over 25% in 2010. Downward revisions in taxation will enhance earnings prospects further in tandem with increased volumes. Businesses will benefit from increased domestic demand in the medium but will also be required to invest in building scale and enhancing productivity in anticipation of new competition that is inevitably ushered in by an improved operating environment. >> Sustained local retail buying interest in the market has pushed near term market multiples to 15.2x FY12E earnings, with aggressive buying on selected mid cap and speculative trading on illiquid counters having pushed the indices higher at an excessive pace thus far this year, warranting a modest correction. A medium term outlook of sustainable normalized earnings of approximately 25% should see the index trend higher over the medium to long term. >> We remain bullish on the medium to long term earnings growth prospects of Manufacturing, Banking and Leisure stocks. The sharp earnings growth in the Telco and Energy sector is due to a recent return to profitability, while earnings growth in plantation stocks have been driven by steep appreciation in rubber prices caused by a significant drop in global supply. >> The banking sector witnessed a sharp increase in credit growth over the 2H of 2010 with loan book expansion estimated to be 22.6% for 2010. The sharp loan growth helped push earnings higher for the sector in comparison to the previous year where bond trading gains augmented earnings. The outlook for credit expansion over the next three years is approximately 20-25% yoy given increased private investment and consumer spending. Net interest margins will moderate on account of competitive pressures and therefore would require more robust management of the asset/liability mix. Asset quality has improved significantly reflective of the lower credit default risk in the present environment. Increased recoveries has seen gross NPLs in the industry declining from 8.49% in 2009 to 5.33% as at end 2010 while provision cover the industry is estimated to have increased to 44.9%. A 15.6% growth in deposits has seen a steady shift towards low cost savings deposits on account of the narrow rate differential against term deposits. The reduction in corporate tax and financial VAT has resulted in effective tax rates for the banking sector declining from 60% to 45%. As a result average ROE at banks which ranged from 13% to 16% has increased to a range of 16% to 20% across the listed banks. This permits greater capital accumulation to fund aggressive loan book expansion. Scope for a further sharp improvement in ROE could potentially stem from consolidation in the sector in the medium to long term. Banks have also recently started to issue scrip dividends in favour of cash dividends in a bid to retain further Tier 1 capital. The collective result of these measures as well as the fact that most banks still exhibit a statutory liquidity ratio in excess of 25% means that banks are unlikely to require fresh capital infusions over the next 18mths. Government plans of a doubling of per capita GDP in the country by 2015 would effectively warrant a doubling of credit into
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 13 Price/Book Value ROE (%) PER (x) EPS Growth (%) Sector (x) FY11E FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12EBanking Finance & Insurance 2.85 16.24 29.8 22.4 17.6 14.0 (10.1) 33.2 27.6 25.2Food & Beverage 4.98 33.24 22.1 20.6 15.0 12.5 9.8 6.9 37.6 19.8Engineering 2.67 31.71 12.8 8.7 8.4 7.3 53.0 48.1 2.7 15.2Conglomerates 3.05 11.82 38.6 30.5 25.8 18.2 (5.7) 26.5 18.2 41.7Leisure 3.23 8.63 196.4 97.1 37.4 26.4 (49.6) 102.3 159.7 41.8Manufacturing 3.21 20.02 35.9 23.8 16.0 12.9 (23.4) 50.9 48.4 24.1Telecommunications 2.48 10.68 53.5 N/A 23.2 21.1 (74.1) (423.9) 171.1 9.9Energy 1.79 14.06 N/A N/A 12.7 11.1 (152.9) 110.5 1972.9 14.9Plantations 2.40 18.89 34.7 29.5 12.7 12.0 (61.9) 17.8 131.6 6.4Trading and Others 3.07 20.94 101.9 36.2 14.7 11.6 (52.9) 181.9 146.2 26.0Market 3.01 15.83 37.5 39.6 19.0 15.2 (30.8) (5.2) 108.0 24.8* FY10 - Based on actuals; FY11E / FY12E excludes exceptional items (Prices as of 24th Feb. 2011) the economy and Commercial banks continue to be the dominant financial intermediary in the country. The country has a commercial bank branch per 29.4sq km, and a population to bank branch ratio of 4200 persons, including district co-operative rural bank branches. Whilst access to banking services is widely available actual credit penetration is still modest particularly in the personal and SME lending segment. Total licensed commercial bank advances amount to just over 25% of GDP. >> The listed manufacturing sector entities are mostly oriented towards domestic market needs. With borrowing costs having sharply gone down over the last two years and improving revenues we have seen companies starting to improve utilization of their capacity. Thanks to belt tightening during the 2008/2009 period, reduced finance costs as well as scale economies from improved utilization has resulted in better margins on higher revenues leading to faster earnings growth. Construction in particular has boosted volumes sold of the cement and floor tiles companies, and both major floor tiles players have indicated higher capex for expansion. >> The leisure sector recorded a 46% growth in arrivals last year, with the increase in arrivals pushing average occupancy to 67% in CY10 compared to 47% recorded in CY09. The 4QCY10 alone recorded over 200,000 tourists and an average occupancy of 74%. The South of Colombo is estimated to have enjoyed an occupancy of 92.8% in December 2010 while the North of Colombo recorded 86% in occupancy. Sri Lanka has a current capacity of 14,593 rooms, and requires a further 15,000 graded hotel rooms to achieve the industry’s 2016 target of 2.5mn visitors. The unlikelihood of sufficient room capacity coming on stream continues to be a key driver of medium term earnings prospects for the sector. Equally challenging for the sector apart from expanding the physical room capacity would be the ability to source and train the required skilled staff that would deliver service levels that can consistently demand increased rates. Most incumbents have already undertaken refurbishments of their existing properties while also commencing construction of newer properties. With increased demand for tourism coupled with stagnant room supply at least for another 1 – 2 years, we expect the local hoteliers to enjoy higher room rates along with greater occupancies. However, their ability to charge higher rates will very much depend on the quality of the product offered. More recently, the recent budget proposals have indicated an increase in the minimum room rate to US $ 125 for all 5 star properties across the country from April 2011. 5 star operators failing to charge the minimum rate will be charged a bed tax of US $ 20 per bed per night. This would collectively yield to consistently higher earnings growth rates for the sector in the medium term till such time significant additional room supply comes on stream.
Sri Lanka Equities John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd. CORPORATE UPDATE A JKSB Research Publication March 2011 Yolan Seimon firstname.lastname@example.org Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC Rs 273.00 BUY COMB Valuation Metrics Dec 06A Dec 07A Dec 08A Dec 09A Dec 10A Dec 11E Dec 12E Dec 13E Reuters Code COMB.CM Net Income (Rs. mn) 11,473 16,273 19,642 18,812 22,063 25,118 29,380 34,493 Bloomberg Code COMB.SL Pre-Provision Profit (Rs. Mn) 5,693 8,543 9,685 7,340 9,374 10,984 13,762 16,600 Share Price LKR 273.00 Issued Share Capital (Shares) NPAT (Rs. mn) 2,718 4,037 4,119 4,192 5,508 6,930 8,684 10,569 *Voting 352,242,689 EPS (Rs.) 7.2 10.7 10.9 11.1 14.6 18.4 23.1 28.1 *Non Voting 24,181,195 EPS Growth % 27.7 48.5 2.0 1.8 31.4 25.8 25.3 21.7 12 mth High/Low (Rs.) - Voting 295 / 125.3 PER (x) 37.8 25.5 24.9 24.5 18.7 14.8 11.8 9.7 Average Daily Volume (Voting Shares) 499,948 P/BV 6.4 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.7 Market Capitalisation (Voting) Rs. mn 96,162 Dividend Yield % 1.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 Price Performance (%) - Voting DPS Rs. 5.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 1 mth 6 mth 12 mth ASPI 8.70 18.82 105.54 NAV/Share 42.5 64.7 69.7 76.3 89.0 107.4 130.5 158.6 COMB (0.91) 10.08 117.88 ROE 17.0 16.6 15.7 14.6 16.4 17.1 17.7 17.7 * Adjusted for splits, bonus and rights issues COMB ADJUSTED PRICE - VOLUME GRAPH >> Commercial Bank of Ceylon >> The operations in Bangladesh stillPrice Volume PLC (COMB) remains Sri Lanka’s carry a predominant corporate lending310 25,000,000300 Volume leading private sector bank accounting portfolio with assets accounting for Price Rs.290280 for an estimated share of 13.8% of over 10% of the bank’s total assets and270 the country’s LCB assets and 13.1% approximately 13% of gross income in260250 20,000,000 of deposits. The bank has earned the group. The quality of its loan book240230 the reputation of being one of the in Bangladesh is reflected in the fact220 best managed banks in the country that it recorded zero NPL’s in the first 5210200 15,000,000 and has grown aggressively since the years of operations, and even at present190180 1980’s, after deciding to launch out NPL’s at its Bangladesh operations are170 as a nationwide bank from its early close to nil. COMB’s investment in160150 10,000,000 operations as a predominately corporate Bangladesh holds significant long term140130 lender. Approximately 44% of the value given the difficulty in acquiring120 bank’s lending portfolio in Sri Lanka banking licenses in the country as110100 arises from the corporate sector while well as extremely sound fundamentals 5,000,000 90 80 the growing retail and SME segment displayed over the last 8 years. 70 now accounts for 56% of advances. 60 50 The bank operates 204 branches in Sri 40 0 Lanka along with 333 ATM machines Financial Performance across the island with total assets of the >> The bank has recorded a 31.4% 11-Feb-05 18-Feb-11 26-Feb-04 25-Mar-10 31-Jul-06 26-Jul-07 11-Sep-03 08-Sep-10 15-Oct-09 23-Jan-06 30-Jan-07 04-Jan-08 14-May-09 25-Nov-08 01-Apr-03 23-Jun-08 17-Aug-04 10-Aug-05 bank currently amounting to Rs. 370bn. growth in earnings for FY10 benefiting from sound growth in advances of >> COMB has also successfully 26.3% particularly in the 2H. The ventured into Bangladesh where it has bank is recovering strongly from a established a strong presence following challenging period over 2008 and the acquisition of the Bangladesh 2009 where the bank and the sector branch of Credit Agricole Indosuez was buffeted by a high interest rate in 2003. The bank has now expanded environment, high inflation and to 8 branches and a further 9 banking weakening economic conditions as the centres as dedicated SME and card war intensified resulting in a reduction centers and off shore banking units. This document is published by John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt.) Limited for the exclusive use of their clients. All information has been compiled from available documentation and JKSB’s own research material. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this issue, neither JKSB nor its employees can accept responsibility for any decisions made by investors based on information contained herein.
18 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy in new business volumes and a contraction of its lending portfolio as seen across the sector. The bank nevertheless posted group earnings of Rs. 4.19bn in FY09 marginally up from Rs. 4.12bn in FY08 which included a capital gain of Rs. 405.5mn on its sale of a 30% stake it had in Commercial Leasing CO. PLC as well as a charge of Rs. 692.16mn to its income statement on account of oil hedging contracts for which it is yet to receive payment. The group ROAA stood at 1.6% for FY10 while ROAE for the group was 17.7%. We do anticipate at least a part reversal on the provisions made against the oil hedging contracts once arbitration proceedings are concluded. >> High effective tax rates which were between 55% to 60% (35% Corporate Tax + 20% Financial VAT - on operating profit + personnel costs + economic depreciation) have been reduced with the 2011 budget proposals giving an immediate boost to ROE from FY11 onwards for the sector. Corporate tax rates of 35% have been reduced to 28% while the Financial VAT was reduced from 20% to 12%. >> Gross NPL’s at the bank have declined to 4.22% as at end FY10 from a peak of 8.85% in June ’09 while provision cover is improving. Net interest margins have been sound at 4.74% rising over the last few quarters as the bank witnesses a steady shift from term deposits to low cost savings deposits. NIMs will however be under pressure given the relatively lower interest rate environment at present while the bank still displays excess liquidity with its domestic banking unit having a statutory liquid asset ratio of 29.9% as at end FY10 compared to a minimum regulatory requirement of 20%. Loan Growth and Asset Quality >> Asset growth in the bank has recorded a 20.07% CAGR over the last five years prior to FY09 while its loan book has grown at a CAGR of 22.10% over the same period marginally above a 21.35% CAGR witnessed in the Sri Lankan banking sector in the same period. Asset growth in FY09 was 14.6% while the bank registered negative loan growth of 4.70% for FY09 with much of the deposits invested in government securities in the last year as demand for credit dried up. We expect the bank to post loan growth of 24% in FY11 onwards over medium having expanded by 26.6% in FY10. The bank’s personal banking division now accounts for 56% of total advances with the bank evolving from being an almost exclusive corporate lender in the 1980’s. The banks retail lending portfolio consists mainly of consumption and housing loans while the banks corporate loan portfolio is spread across key growth sectors of the economy without any significant over exposure in any segment. 2008 2009 2010COMB.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Net Loans and Advances 177,815 177,136 177,831 171,727 173,591 165,999 166,329 171,727 172,220 174,793 192,916 216,815QoQ Loan Growth -0.38% 0.39% -3.43% 1.09% -4.37% 0.20% 3.25% 0.29% 1.49% 10.37% 12.39%Total Assets 278,931 276,183 282,246 281,567 287,879 300,787 311,157 322,546 334,563 338,172 364,614 370,258Loan/Assets 64% 64% 63% 61% 60% 55% 53% 53% 51% 52% 53% 59%Loan/Deposit 96% 92% 91% 86% 85% 77% 75% 73% 71% 72% 76% 83%Net Provision and Recoveries Rs. mn 285 511 377 406 410 322 130 (275) (29) 105 196 (188)QoQ Provision Expense Growth 80% -26% 8% 1% -21% -60% -312% 89% 456% 88% -195%Gross NPL % 3.44 5.23 5.14 5.19 7.41 8.85 8.19 6.84 6.89 6.96 5.02 4.22Net NPL % 1.88 3.53 3.35 3.35 4.94 6.65 5.92 4.89 4.97 5.05 3.36 2.78
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 19 >> The bank anticipates giving greater focus toward the high yield SME and micro enterprise sector in the medium term while also commencing activities in the pawning business in 2008 which is zero rated for capital adequacy purposes. We expect the bank’s NPL ratio to range from 4.2% to 4.3% in the medium term having declined to 4.22% by end FY10 from 8.85% in 2Q FY10. The 17.57% reduction in absolute NPLs over FY10 is reflective of lower credit default risk in the system in the present environment. Funding and Capital >> Deposit growth for the bank has grown at a CAGR of 21.63% over the last 5 years and by 10.7% in FY10. The bank however continues to have a superior low cost deposit to total deposit ratio of 55% in comparison to other private commercial banks. A healthy surplus of low cost retail deposits over retail lending continues to help fund the banks corporate lending portfolio having a positive impact on cumulative interest margins. We expect COMB to grow its deposit base by 20% and 19.8% in FY11 and FY12 respectively. >> The bank has a portfolio of longstanding branded savings products targeted at children, teens, seniors as well as working professionals which have helped the bank to cultivate its strong retail deposit base. The bank does have 8 branches in the North and East provinces and is expected to increase its presence in these regions giving a further boost to its savings deposit base. >> The bank Tier 1 and Total capital adequacy ratios currently stands at 10.87% and 12.27% respectively. The bank has always successfully attracted funds via attractively priced rights issues over the years during periods when asset growth consistently exceeded ROE of the bank. Furthermore the bank has regularly raised finds via subordinated debt for Tier 2 capital. The bank’s capital adequacy is presently well above minimum requirements of 5% and 10% for Tier 1 and Total capital respectively. 2008 2009 2010COMB.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4CASA Rs. mn 89,632 89,527 87,954 87,886 89,787 95,567 102,027 112,681 122,625 127,745 136,858 142,823Total Deposits Rs. mn 186,099 191,498 195,797 199,865 204,281 215,714 223,190 234,731 241,340 242,241 252,562 259,745CASA 48% 47% 45% 44% 44% 44% 46% 48% 51% 53% 54% 55%QoQ CASA Growth 0% -2% 0% 2% 6% 7% 10% 9% 4% 7% 4%QoQ Deposit Growth 3% 2% 2% 2% 6% 3% 5% 3% 0% 4% 3%Deposits/Liabilities 73% 76% 76% 68% 78% 79% 79% 80% 79% 79% 76% 77%Tier 1 CAR % 9.5 9.8 9.6 10.6 10.5 10.8 10.9 11.9 11.7 11.6 10.8 11%Total CAR % 12.4 12.5 12.4 13.1 13.1 13.4 13.5 13.9 13.7 13.4 12.5 12%SLR Domestic Banking Unit 22% 23% 23% 25% 28% 33% 37% 39% 39% 39% 36% 30%SLR Off Shore Banking Unit 29% 27% 23% 22% 26% 37% 26% 28% 35% 30% 28% 31% Net Interest Income >> The sharp decline in yields on government securities have enabled banks to re-price its liabilities enabling banks to offset the negative impact on net interest margins caused by the adverse volume variance in the sector. One year treasury bills have fallen from 19.12% in early FY08 to a current rate of 7.33% which has spurred a downward revision on deposit rates. Commercial lending rates have also declined with prime lending rates to 9.59%. We expect net interest margins to moderate over the medium term to 4.5% while the resilience of the banks margins should
20 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy continue given its active promotion of its low cost savings deposits as well as its increased exposure to retail lending. 2008 2009 2010COMB.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4NIM 4.39 4.47 4.53 4.68 4.18 4.00 3.98 4.11 4.43 4.53 4.57 4.74Net Interest Income Rs. mn 2,992 3,078 3,283 3,531 2,942 2,846 3,047 3,590 3,574 3,819 4,322 4,668 Non-Interest Income >> Non-interest income has consistently accounted for around 30% of total net income of the bank over the last 5 years. A stable exchange rate has however meant lower foreign exchange income while fee income from trade finance as becoming increasingly competitive. ATM fees however still remain strong accounting for nearly a fifth of total fee based income. The bank has aggressively pursued channeling the flow of worker remittances into the country and it has increased its share of formal inward remittances to a current 13% from 9% in 2007. Remittance houses established in Europe and the Far East as well as expansion of activities in the Middle East under the brand ‘Commex’ is expected to contribute to gains on foreign exchange income although at resent adversely affected by an appreciation of the LKR against the US$. 2008 2009 2010COMB.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Fee Income / Operating Income 30% 35% 31% 32% 37% 40% 32% 29% 27% 26% 25% 26% Operating Expenses >> COMB continues to record one of the lowest cost to income ratios among the local banks. Scale benefits from its size as well as constant re-engineering and rationalization of internal processes with the increased adoption of technology in its processes is expected to continue to register an incremental decline in costs going forward. 2008 2009 2010COMB.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Operating Expenses (Excl VAT) 1,713 1,762 1,949 2,409 2,081 2,075 2,170 2,501 2,351 2,298 2,376 2,940Cost / Income (Excl VAT) 40% 37% 41% 46% 45% 44% 49% 49% 48% 45% 41% 47%Branches 174 174 176 181 181 183 184 184 190 196 201 204Employees 3807 3960 3983 4041 4099 4075 4088 4074 4119 4148 4233 4291Employees per branch 22 23 23 22 23 22 22 22 22 21 21 21 Valuations >> Earnings growth forecasts of 25.8% in FY11E and 25.3% in FY12E following the tax revisions correspond to a PER of 14.8x and 11.8x respectively at Rs. 273. The counter trades at a P/BV 3.07x, based on the NAV as of 30th December 2010. The counter trades at a slight premium to the sector. Given that the bank has consistently exhibited sound fundamentals and is well positioned to further consolidate its market position in Sri Lanka while having strong medium to long term prospects in the region, it is our view that the counter ought to continue to trade at a premium to the sector. We recommend BUY.
Sri Lanka Equities John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd. CORPORATE UPDATE A JKSB Research Publication March 2011 Yolan Seimon email@example.com Hatton National Bank PLC Voting Rs 400.00; Non-Voting Rs 216.00 Long Term Buy HNB Valuation Metrics Dec 06A Dec 07A Dec 08A Dec 09A Dec 10E Dec 11E Dec 12E Dec 13E Reuters Code HNB.CM Net Income (Rs. mn) 12,425 15,946 18,438 21,036 22,388 26,181 31,061 36,677 Bloomberg Code HNB.SL Pre-Provision Profit (Rs. Mn) 3,482 5,008 5,287 6,983 7,318 9,278 11,255 13,743 Share Price LKR (Voting) 400.00 NPAT (Rs. mn) 2,239 3,150 2,831 4,483 4,306 5,916 7,275 8,902 Issued Share Capital (Shares) EPS (Rs.) 9.4 13.2 11.9 18.8 18.1 24.9 30.6 37.4 *Voting 191,253,773 *Non Voting 46,692,433 EPS Growth % 26.5 40.7 -10.2 58.4 -4.0 37.4 23.0 22.4 12 mth High/Low (Rs.) - Voting 417 / 175.00 PER (x) 42.5 30.2 33.6 21.2 22.1 16.1 13.1 10.7 Average Daily Volume (Shares)- Voting 402,430 P/BV 7.4 4.5 4.2 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.1 Market Capitalisation (Voting) Rs. mn 76,502 Dividend Yield % 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Price Performance (%) DPS Rs. 5.0 5.0 4.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 1 mth 6 mth 12 mth NAV/Share 54.3 89.5 96.3 110.8 122.8 141.4 164.7 194.7 ASPI 8.70 18.82 105.54 HNB 0.00 20.48 128.57 ROE % 17.3 14.8 12.3 17.0 14.7 17.6 18.6 19.2 * Adjusted for splits, bonus and rights issuesHNB ADJUSTED PRICE - VOLUME GRAPH Price Volume >> Hatton National Bank PLC remittance business apart from being a leading player in corporate and project445 Volume 30,000,000 (HNB) is the second largest private430 lending by virtue of its size.415 Price Rs. bank in the country with an estimated400385 11.5% share of LCB assets, ranked 25,000,000370355 closely to its peer Commercial Bank of Financial Performance340325310 20,000,000 Ceylon PLC in terms of banking assets and branch network. The bank has >> The bank recorded a 10% yoy cumulative earnings growth for the295 196 banking centres across the island280 3Q FY10 on the back of moderate265 providing corporate and retail banking,250 growth in net interest income that235 15,000,000 along with trade and project finance stemmed from a slow pick up in loan220 services. The banks subsidiaries include205 disbursements at the bank last year.190 Insurance, a Joint Venture investment175 10,000,000 Loan book growth for the 9month160 in a Stock broking and Investment145 period was just 9% although it is130 Banking firm while also functioning expected to pick up significantly in 4Q115 5,000,000 as a Primary Dealer for Government100 FY10 and in FY11. Fee based income 85 Securities. Contributions from these 70 continued to drive non-interest income 55 entities are relatively small. HNB is also higher while foreign exchange income 40 0 the third largest issuer of credit cards was flat for the period on account in the country behind the two foreign 30-Mar-07 13-Feb-08 02-Feb-11 05-Mar-09 24-Feb-10 10-Dec-07 30-Dec-08 02-Sep-09 23-Dec-09 08-Dec-10 12-Oct-07 22-Oct-08 28-Oct-09 12-Oct-10 07-Jul-09 12-May-09 23-Apr-08 23-Apr-10 13-Jun-07 27-Jun-08 22-Jun-10 14-Aug-07 21-Aug-08 16-Aug-10 of a stable exchange rate. Operating banks HSBC and Standard Chartered expenses increased by 14% yoy while a Bank. sharp rise in recoveries as seen across >> HNB has consistently exhibited the sector together with lower provision a strong retail presence in the country expense resulted in an 11% increase while fundamentals have improved in operating profits. Non performing considerably over the last five years. loans at the bank increased by a modest The bank’s retail presence is well 5% in absolute terms while the gross entrenched with a widely recognized and net NPL ratio declined marginally portfolio of branded low cost savings to 5.94% and 2.06% respectively. The deposit products as well as a strong bank which consistently benefited from tax losses over the last few years has This document is published by John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt.) Limited for the exclusive use of their clients. All information has been compiled from available documentation and JKSB’s own research material. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this issue, neither JKSB nor its employees can accept responsibility for any decisions made by investors based on information contained herein.
24 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy begun to witness a moderate increase in effective tax rates gradually nearing parity with the industry. NIMs still remain strong at 5.28% largely a result of its retail exposure in lending and low cost deposits. Loan Book and Asset Quality >> HNB witnessed a 4% contraction in the bank’s loan portfolio stemming from high interest rates and depressed economic conditions in early FY09. We anticipate a loan growth of 17.9% in FY10 increasing incrementally to 22% post FY12 for HNB. The bank added 9 branches in FY09 and a further 12 branches in FY10, a bulk of which were added to boost its network in the North and East provinces which already has 21 branches. >> Investments made in integrating its systems across its network of banking centres has strengthened follow up and credit risk monitoring over the past two years. In addition, more resources and greater proficiency has been brought into credit risk management over the last 4 years which has contributed to a healthier loan book. HNB also has a strong presence in SME and Micro Finance lending although neither segments are particularly well developed in the country yet. Micro-finance lending accounts for a little over 1% of the bank’s lending portfolio at present. Emphasis on recoveries, follow up and rescheduling of bad debts has resulted in a decline in the NPL ratio and a subsequent decline in provisioning expense. The banks gross NPL ratio declined to 5.94% in Sept. FY10 from 8.73% in Jun FY09 and is likely to improve further to 5.25% in FY10 and 4.5% in FY11 along with incremental improvements in provision cover. 2008 2009 2010HNB.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3Net Loans and Advances Rs. ‘mn 154,724 155,270 159,526 173,145 166,497 162,949 168,459 167,095 164,399 170,103 181,515QoQ Loan Growth 0.35% 2.74% 8.54% -3.84% -2.13% 3.38% -0.81% -1.61% 3.47% 6.71%Total Assets Rs. ‘mn 241,414 247,748 256,585 261,990 267,714 274,101 276,152 287,511 289,396 295,179 304,594Loan/Assets 64% 63% 62% 66% 62% 59% 61% 58% 57% 58% 60%Loan/Deposit 88% 87% 87% 92% 86% 81% 83% 78% 77% 79% 82%Net Provision and Recoveries Rs. mn 177 247 156 276 71 166 66 (339) 49 10 37QoQ Provision Expense Growth 39% -37% 77% -74% 135% -60% -613% 115% -80% 264%Gross NPL % 6.74 7.62 7.13 6.72 8.17 8.73 8.44 6.15 7.4 6.48 5.94Net NPL % 2.18 2.89 2.53 2.27 3.48 3.86 3.67 2.9 4.11 3.3 3.09 Funding and capital >> Customer deposits are principally HNB’s core source of funding with approximately 89.7% of interest bearing liabilities being customer deposits as of Sept. FY10. Low cost demand and savings deposits account for 8.2% and 42.9% of total deposits as at Sept. FY10. Customer deposits grew 13% in FY09 and are expected to grow by 5.9% in FY10 and 14.6% in FY11. We do not foresee a significant change in the banks deposit mix over the medium term. The bank’s Tier 1 and Total capital stood at 10.49% and 12.25% respectively as at 30th September 2010, well above minimum statutory requirements of 5% and 10% respectively.
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 25 2008 2009 2010HNB.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3CASA Rs. mn 82,752 81,587 81,886 82,929 82,208 85,271 88,996 97,021 102,711 107,756 113,084Total Deposits Rs. mn 175,462 177,788 182,707 188,178 193,190 201,225 203,812 213,819 214,473 216,369 221,258CASA 47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 42% 44% 45% 48% 50% 51%QoQ CASA Growth -1% 0% 1% -1% 4% 4% 9% 6% 5% 5%QoQ Deposit Growth 1% 3% 3% 3% 4% 1% 5% 0% 1% 2%Deposits/Liabilities 80% 79% 78% 79% 79% 81% 81% 82% 82% 81% 80%Tier 1 CAR % 7.9 8.9 8.3 8.9 8.6 8.5 9.5 10.9 10.2 10.1 10.3Total CAR % 10.3 11.4 10.4 11.1 10.7 10.6 11.6 12.9 12.2 12.0 12.2SLR Domestic Banking Unit 21% 21% 22% 22% 24% 26% 25% 29% 30% 29% 27%SLR Off Shore Banking Unit 23% 26% 21% 22% 22% 23% 24% 24% 24% 21% 26% Net Interest Income >> The bank maintained healthy net interest margins of 5.28% as of 3Q FY10 largely due to its significant exposure to low cost deposits as well as a sound maturity match of assets and liabilities. We expect net interest margins to decline marginally given the comparatively lower interest rate regime the country is entering into. The bank will however continue to enjoy above average NIMs given the banks strong low cost retail deposit base and its exposure to retail lending. 2008 2009 2010HNB.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3NIM 5.19 5.1 5.08 5.24 5.28 5.39 5.44 5.45 5.16 5.27 5.28Net Interest Income Rs. mn 2,967 2,953 3,042 3,580 3,402 3,606 3,702 3,822 3,661 3,863 3,933 Non-Interest Income >> Non-interest income has consistently contributed nearly 1/3 of total income over the past few years, arising primarily out of fees and commissions for trade finance activities. The bank witnessed a moderate growth of just 9% in non-interest income in FY09. Increase in exposure to consumer lending as well as an upturn in general economic activity is expected to boost external trade which would filter down to increased fees and commissions. The bank is also expected to record an increase in foreign exchange income via it’s inward remittance business following the opening of exchange houses in Canada and the Middle East. The bank is estimated to have a 17% market share in the formal remittance market in the country, the highest among private commercial banks. 2008 2009 2010HNB.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3Fee Income / Operating Income 30% 35% 33% 26% 26% 31% 30% 26% 28% 34% 34% Operating Expenses >> HNB’s Cost to Income ratio declined moderately over the last 4 years. The bank has added nearly 50 branches over the last 4-5 years whilst retaining if not marginally reducing its staff cadre. The bank’s branch expansion going forward will have an average of just 7 personnel. The operational efficiencies have been complemented by the launch of a core banking software solution, from Finnacle, which has integrated the bank’s entire network facilitating the roll out of new branches and improving credit monitoring and follow up. 2008 2009 2010HNB.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3Operating Expenses (Excl VAT) Rs.’mn 2486 2671 2669 2944 2891 2969 3240 2874 3306 3400 3689Cost / Income (Excl VAT) 59% 59% 59% 61% 63% 57% 61% 56% 65% 58% 62%Branches 169 171 173 177 178 178 180 186 187 189 196Employees 4269 4310 4341 4395 4367 4334 4334 4302 4270 4280 4281Employees per branch 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 22
26 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy Valuations >> HNB has exhibited strong fundamentals over the last three years with a healthier loan book, improved provision cover and enhanced profitability. Earnings growth expectations of -4.0% in FY10 over the previous year which included several exceptional items and 37.4% in FY11 correspond to a forecast PER of 22.1x and 16.1x FY10 and FY11 earnings respectively at a market price of Rs. 400.00. Earnings expectations for FY11 include a reduction in effective tax rates. The counter currently trades at a P/BV of 3.34x as at end September 2010. We recommend the counter as a Long Term BUY.Ratio Analysis 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013EPrice / Book Value 4.5 4.2 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.1EPS 13.2 11.9 18.8 18.1 24.9 30.6 37.4PER 30.2 33.6 21.2 22.1 16.1 13.1 10.7EPS Growth 40.7% -10.2% 58.4% -4.0% 37.4% 23.0% 22.4%DVD YLD 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%ROE 14.8% 12.3% 17.0% 14.7% 17.6% 18.6% 19.2%ROAE 18.4% 12.8% 18.2% 15.5% 18.8% 20.0% 20.8%ROAA 1.4% 1.1% 1.6% 1.4% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0%NIM 5.18% 5.51% 5.94% 5.32% 5.18% 5.15% 5.09%Fee Income / Operating Income 31% 32% 31% 36% 39% 41% 42%Cost / Income 65.8% 69.4% 67.4% 70.5% 67.4% 65.4% 64.3%Cost / Income (Excl VAT) 57.8% 61.4% 56.0% 61.9% 58.9% 55.9% 55.0%Cost / Average Assets 4.69% 5.08% 5.16% 5.31% 5.39% 5.43% 5.43%Tier 1 10.32 8.93 10.85Loan Growth 24.6% 8.9% -3.5% 13.9% 17.9% 19.9% 21.9%Asset Growth 16.6% 8.7% 9.7% 7.0% 13.0% 15.3% 16.8%RWA Growth 23% 14% 10% 7% 13% 15% 17%Loan/ Deposits 90.4% 92.7% 79.3% 85.2% 88.7% 91.5% 94.6%Loan / Assets 65.9% 66.0% 58.0% 61.7% 64.4% 67.0% 69.9%Deposist / Liabilities 80.0% 78.2% 80.7% 80.2% 80.5% 81.2% 82.1%Equity / Assets 8.8% 8.7% 9.2% 9.5% 9.7% 9.8% 9.9%NPL Ratio 6.11% 7.12% 6.47% 5.25% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50%NPL Coverage 67.4% 59.7% 45.8% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0%Income Statement 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013EFor the Year Ended 31st December Rs. mn Rs. mn Rs. mn Rs. mn Rs. mn Rs. mn Rs. mnIncome 32,076 38,725 41,317 41,144 47,966 55,911 65,883Interest Income 27,127 32,830 34,836 33,058 37,800 43,251 50,558Less: Interest Expense 16,130 20,287 20,281 18,757 21,785 24,850 29,206Net Interest Income 10,996 12,542 14,555 14,301 16,015 18,401 21,352Foreign exchange profit 1,115 1,169 920 1,058 1,186 1,364 1,568Fee and commisison income 2,122 2,435 2,355 2,874 3,592 4,311 5,086Other Income 1,712 2,292 3,206 4,155 5,388 6,986 8,670Net Income 15,946 18,438 21,036 22,388 26,181 31,061 36,677Less Operating ExpensesPersonnel Costs 3,430 3,831 4,446 4,980 5,627 6,584 7,703Premises and Equipment expenses 1,859 2,184 2,649 2,940 3,323 3,755 4,318Provision for staff retirement benefits 4,740 5,717 6,243 6,992 7,784 9,001 10,404Loan losses and Provisions 457 795 823 865 908 953 1,144Other Overhead expenses 908 1,159 709 142 153 451 493Total Expenses (11,396) (13,947) (14,877) (15,934) (17,811) (20,759) (24,078)Profit from Operations 4,550 4,492 6,159 6,453 8,370 10,302 12,599Add: Share of PBT of Assoc. 14 (6) 8 24 27 34 42Profit before Tax 4,565 4,485 6,167 6,477 8,397 10,336 12,641Less: Provision for Taxation 1,365 1,599 1,613 2,073 2,351 2,894 3,540Profit after taxation 3,200 2,886 4,553 4,405 6,046 7,442 9,102Less: Minority Interest 49 55 70 99 130 167 200Net profit for the year 3,150 2,831 4,483 4,306 5,916 7,275 8,902
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 27Balance Sheet 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013EAs at 31st December Rs. mn Rs. mn Rs. mn Rs. mn Rs. mn Rs. mn Rs. mnASSETSCash and short-term funds 19,275 23,560 27,489 22,266 26,719 32,063 36,872Balances with Central Banks 13,406 11,862 11,079 10,843 11,927 13,120 14,432Government Treasury Bills and Bonds 1,156 759 306 352 404 465 535Commercial paper 236 236 283 325 374 430 495Sec. purchased under re-sale agreements 5,859 2,539 951 1,093 1,257 1,446 1,663Dealing Securities 712 81 688 770 863 966 1,082Investment securities 20,978 26,971 55,848 58,082 55,758 55,201 54,649Bills of Exchange 2,069 1,959 1,476 1,506 1,536 1,566 1,598Loans and Advances 143,415 159,462 156,392 178,287 210,378 252,454 307,994Lease receivable within one year 4,396 4,392 3,931 4,481 5,288 6,346 7,742Lease receiveable from one to five years 8,894 7,097 5,013 5,715 6,744 8,092 9,873Investment in Assoc. 165 144 226 271 326 391 469Other Assets 7,048 8,274 8,788 8,048 9,744 11,153 13,043Property, Plant and Equipment 13,182 13,901 14,333 15,050 15,802 16,592 17,422TOTAL ASSETS 241,003 261,990 287,511 307,727 347,695 400,802 468,332Financed By :Deposits form customers 175,567 186,615 210,363 222,970 252,614 293,401 346,056Dividends Payable 30 127 216 - - - -Borrowings 18,257 25,050 17,998 20,158 22,576 25,286 28,320Non Life Ins. reserves & Long Term Ins. Funds 1,221 1,831 2,453 2,747 3,077 3,446 3,860Other Liabilties 16,606 18,074 23,139 25,916 29,026 32,509 36,410Tax Payable 1,605 2,416 2,977 3,335 3,735 4,183 4,685Deferred Taxation 608 873 938 1,051 1,177 1,318 1,477Debentures 5,589 3,735 2,653 1,990 1,492 1,119 839 219,483 238,721 260,738 278,166 313,697 361,262 421,646Minority Interest 220 348 400 348 348 348 348SHAREHOLDERS FUNDSStated Capital 2,355 5,059 5,084 5,084 5,084 5,084 5,084Statutory Reserve Fund 822 983 1,260 1,556 1,920 2,098 2,333Reserves 18,123 16,879 20,030 22,573 26,647 32,011 38,921Shareholders Funds 21,300 22,921 26,374 29,213 33,650 39,193 46,338TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS FUNDS 241,003 261,990 287,511 307,727 347,695 400,802 468,332 John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd. 130 Glennie Street Colombo 2 Sri Lanka T. 9411 2306 250, 9411 2342 066-7 F. 9411 2342 068 www.jksb.com Company No. PV 89
Sri Lanka Equities John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd. CORPORATE UPDATE A JKSB Research Publication March 2011 Yolan Seimon firstname.lastname@example.orgSampath Bank PLC Rs 293.00 BUY SAMP Valuation Metrics Dec 05A Dec 06A Dec 07A Dec 08A *Dec 09A **Dec 10A ***Dec 11E Dec 12E Dec 13E Reuters Code SAMP.CM Net Income (Rs. mn) 4,932 6,632 7,554 9,567 12,088 13,549 14,866 17,609 21,065 Bloomberg Code SAMP.SL Pre-Provision Profit (Rs. Mn) 2,043 2,849 3,216 3,453 4,234 5,455 6,121 7,487 9,312 Share Price LKR 293.00 NPAT (Rs. mn) 854 1,072 1,145 1,495 2,072 3,484 3,901 4,695 5,663 Voting 152,807,972 EPS (Rs.) 5.6 7.0 7.5 9.8 13.6 22.8 25.5 30.7 37.1 12 mth High/Low (Rs.) 303.00 / 101.00 EPS Growth % 25.5 6.8 30.6 38.6 68.1 12.0 20.3 20.6 Market Capitalisation (Rs.mn) 44,773 PER (x) 52.4 41.8 39.1 30.0 21.6 12.8 11.5 9.5 7.9 Average Daily Volume (Shares) 322,114 P/BV 7.5 6.4 4.7 4.1 3.6 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.4 Price Performance (%) Dividend Yield % 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.4 2.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 1 mth 6 mth 12 mth DPS Rs. (Cash & Scrip) 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 6.0 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 ASPI 8.70 18.82 105.54 NAV/Share 39 45 62 71 83 110 135 166 203 SAMP 1.03 35.84 186.41 ROE % 14.3 15.4 12.0 13.8 16.4 20.8 18.9 18.5 18.3* Adjusted for splits, bonus and rights issues * Earnings including exceptional items (Exceptional gains from a 9.3% sale in associate LankaBangla Finance Ltd and one off write off on a decline in investments, deferred tax provision and increased contribuition toward staff retitrement benefits following a change in accounting policy) ** Forecast earnings include exceptional items pertaining to Rs. 654.8mn in capital gains from a sale of shares in LankaBangla Finance Ltd, a Rs. 1.33bn recovery against a prior impairment provision, a Rs. 275mn write off of a stake in Union Bank and a Rs. 1.33bn excess specific provision taken as a prudent measure by management *** Forecast earnings FY11E onwards include preliminary estimates following reduction in corporate tax from 35% to 28% and Financial VAT from 20% to 12%. SAMP ADJUSTED PRICE - VOLUME GRAPH >> SAMP is the fastest growing bank end of the civil conflict. The branches in these areas are a net lender account 320 Rs. Volume 25,000,000 among the larger private banks in the 310 Volume for advances of approximately Rs. 5bn 300 Price Rs. country with an estimated 7.11% share 290 22,500,000 or 4% of the bank’s loan book and 280 270 of LCB assets as at end 2010. SAMP 260 approximately Rs. 4bn in deposits. 250 20,000,000 has a 100% stake in both Sampath 240 SAMP expects to add a further 20 230 17,500,000 Surakum Ltd, a Primary Dealer in 220 branches across the island this year Government Securities, and Sampath 210 200 190 15,000,000 bringing it in line with the two larger 180 Leasing and Factoring Ltd. In addition 170 local private banks. 160 150 12,500,000 the bank has a 51% stake in S.C >> The fact that SAMP is a fairly 140 130 10,000,000 Securities (Pvt) Ltd, a mid-sized share 120 110 broking company. 100 90 7,500,000 new bank with just a 24 year history >> New senior management at the meant it was quick to adopt new 80 70 60 5,000,000 50 technology being the first local private 40 bank since late 2008 has set out an 30 2,500,000 bank to use a core banking software 20 explicit objective of becoming the solution, ATM’s etc. and therefore did 10 0 - largest private bank in the country. The 15-Sep-04 21-Feb-05 29-Dec-05 08-May-07 11-Mar-08 16-Sep-10 10-Feb-11 not carry with it legacy processes and as 02-Jan-03 27-Oct-03 22-Nov-06 02-Oct-07 30-Jan-09 18-Nov-09 11-Jun-03 01-Apr-04 01-Aug-05 07-Jun-06 18-Aug-08 02-Jul-09 29-Apr-10 bank has since witnessed a significant a result has grown its branch network improvement in core fundamentals, with an employee to branch ratio for size and growth rates. SAMP has the group of just 15.8 compared to an grown from just 122 branches as at average of 21.2 among the two larger end 2008 to 180 branches as at end local private banks. 2010, including 40 branches opened in FY10. The largest branch expansion undertaken by an entity in the history of >> A centralized credit model initiated under the new management the local banking industry. SAMP now has proved a success. Under this model has the largest footprint among local disbursements are approved by 20 private banks in the North and East regional centres that house senior staff with 12 and 14 branches respectively with specialized expertise in credit after entering the region following the evaluation, while responsibility forThis document is published by John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt.) Limited for the exclusive use of their clients. All information has been compiled from availabledocumentation and JKSB’s own research material. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this issue, neither JKSBnor its employees can accept responsibility for any decisions made by investors based on information contained herein.
30 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy collection and recoveries is delegated to branch managers. This has improved asset quality at the bank without compromising on growth. In addition the bank has significantly improved provision cover Aggressive penetration into new high yield segments such as gold loans (pawning of jewelley)and innovative deposit products aimed at narrowing a maturity mismatch have helped the bank consistently post NIMs above the industry over the last two years. >> The bank also holds an 11.29% stake in LankaBangla Finance Ltd, a listed finance company in Bangladesh also engaged in merchant banking, credit cards as well as owning a highly profitable stock broking subsidiary which has been the market leader for the last three consecutive years. The bank disposed part of its stake given the high prices commanded by the share at the Dhaka Stock Exchange in FY09 and an additional 1.2mn shares in the 1H of FY10. The unrealized capital gain for SAMP on its present holding of 11.29% of this investment at current market prices is Rs. 3.7bn. Financial Performance FY10 >> The bank posted healthy earnings of Rs. 3.48bn and growth of 68.1% for FY10 on the back of strong growth in loans and advances and the retention of healthy net interest margins in a lower interest rate environment. Earnings for the year included several exceptional items including Rs. 654.8mn in capital gains from a sale of shares in LankaBangla Finance, a Rs. 1.33bn recovery against a prior impairment provision, a Rs. 275mn write off of a stake in Union Bank and Rs. 1.33bn in excess specific provisions taken as a prudent measure by management. The bank is likely to cash in on significant capital gains in FY11 as well should it divest its stake in Union Bank which is to list in 1H FY11 as well as a potential further sale of shares in LankaBangla Finance. >> Net interest margins at the bank were healthy at 5.00% with loans and advances growing by 30.29% compared to an industry average of 22.6%. Deposit growth for the year was a healthy 19.4% against an industry average of 15.6% with lower cost current and savings deposits accounting for a bulk of the growth. The CASA ratio. Net interest income grew by 10.3% for the year while non-interest income increased by 15.4% despite a reduction in foreign exchange income as a result of the modest appreciation in the LKR against the US$. Operating expenses increased by 17% for the year despite the aggressive roll out of 40 new branches while provision expense increased by 66% as management prudently made specific provisions well in excess of regulatory requirements. The gross NPL ratio declined to just 3.95% against an industry average of 5.3% with absolute NPLs at SAMP declining by 31.2%. The net NPL ratio was -0.20% reflective of the significant increase in provision cover last year. The significant growth in earnings for the bank in FY10 was also a result of a significantly lower effective tax rate due to the exceptional tax free gains mentioned earlier. Loan Growth and Asset Quality >> The bank has consistently reflected sound asset quality, while recording steady loan growth in line with the sector. Much of the recent growth in advances over recent years has arisen from personal retail loans, pawning, leasing and housing loans, in line with the trend seen in the sector. Corporate loans account for approximately 40% of its loan book with consumer and SME loans accounting for approximately 50% and 10% respectively.
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 31 >> The banks loan book witnessed some stress in FY09 with NPLs rising to 9.84% in 2Q FY09, as was seen across the sector. Specific provision has however increased to 88.89% in FY10 compared 44.93% for the industry as a result of SAMP’s management prudently deciding to increase provision cover in excess of requirements. A 1% general provision requirement on the total performing book is being phased out over the next 4 quarters but the resultant saving is compensated for by a commitment to a depositor’s insurance scheme linked to the health of the bank’s capital adequacy ratio. A centralized credit disbursement model initiated under the new management described earlier has been successful with incremental advances disbursed since implementation of this new model being under 2% as a result of strengthened pre-sanctioning credit quality evaluation and post sanctioning monitoring. >> Gross NPLs for the bank were down to 3.95% as of the 4Q FY10, indicative of the lower credit/default risk in the market. Growth in the bank’s loan book was just 3.2% in FY09 as expected given the high interest rate environment and weak economic conditions stemming from sustained high inflation which has since fallen sharply over the last nine months. We anticipate loan growth of 23.9% in FY11 and 24% in 2012 as the bank pursues aggressive expansion and the wider economy begins to reap the benefits of a post war era. The bank is expected to open a further 20 branches in FY11 as it seeks to be on par with the larger two private banks Hatton National Bank (HNB.SL) and Commercial Bank of Ceylon (COMB.SL). >> The bank has successfully grown its loan book whilst improving asset quality. Approximately 23% of the bank’s loan book is in Gold loans (pawning of jewellery) at rates of approximately 14% at present giving a healthy spread over retail deposits currently at approximately 5%. The current loan to value ratio for these loans is approximately 80%. The bank aggressively penetrated into the pawning segment which has a zero weighting for capital adequacy purposes, assisted by a decline in interest rates and higher Gold prices. The stronger weighting of the consumer segment continues to contribute toward a superior net interest margin compared to peers. The bank is also aggressively promoting credit cards, actively competing in the upper end of the market with the foreign banks (HSBC and Standard Chartered) that dominate market share in the credit card space. 2008 2009 2010SAMP.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Net Loans and Advances Rs. ‘mn 92,114 94,674 94,231 94,004 88,903 89,230 92,519 94,004 97,376 99,543 112,506 123,194QoQ Loan Growth 2.78% -0.47% -0.24% -5.43% 0.37% 3.69% 1.60% 3.59% 2.23% 13.02% 9.50%Total Assets Rs. ‘mn 138,599 143,220 143,643 158,002 141,995 145,566 153,731 158,002 164,374 171,940 178,131 187,886Loan/Assets 66% 66% 66% 59% 63% 61% 60% 59% 59% 58% 63% 66%Loan/Deposit 93% 92% 91% 88% 82% 78% 77% 75% 73% 71% 79% 82%Net Provision and Recoveries Rs. mn 238 247 227 69 291 (165) 193 69 304 322 (343) 378QoQ Provision Expense Growth 4% -8% -69% 319% -157% -217% -64% 338% 6% -206% 210%Gross NPL % 7.36 6.83 7.43 7.47 8.86 9.84 8.86 7.63 6.89 6.8 5.47 3.95Net NPL % 2.88 2.21 2.55 2.37 3.31 4.81 3.87 2.79 1.95 1.68 1.23 -0.2 Funding and Capital >> Low cost saving and current deposits account for 48% of the bank’s deposit base, with total customer deposits growing at a CAGR of 20.1% over the last five years assisted by steady branch expansion from 63 branches in 2003 to 180 at present. The bank has also successfully rolled out a series of innovative low cost deposit products which have resulted in an increase in savings deposits in the
32 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy bank’s deposit mix. Deposit growth for FY09 was 17% and 19.4% in FY10 and is expected to grow at approximately 22% over the next two years assisted by branch expansion. The group’s Tier 1 and Total Capital Adequacy Ratio stood at 11.0% and 13.3% respectively as at end 2010, above statutory requirements of 5% and 10% respectively. The bank does have real estate and quoted investments with significant unrealized gains that are expected to shore up its capital base as the bank pursues loan book expansion outpacing the sector average. Given the significant unrealized gains the bank can access, it is our view that the bank is currently not in any urgent requirement of a capital infusion. Furthermore the bank has initiated the issue of scrip dividends in the banking sector which ensures that Tier 1 capital is retained in the bank to fund loan growth. 2008 2009 2010SAMP.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4CASA Rs. mn 40,672 41,361 40,759 41,082 40,330 42,208 45,138 51,444 59,702 64,646 69,972 72,916Total Deposits Rs. mn 99,522 102,508 103,557 107,341 107,785 114,859 120,319 125,974 132,759 139,689 143,072 150,375CASA 41% 40% 39% 38% 37% 37% 38% 41% 45% 46% 49% 48%QoQ CASA Growth 2% -1% 1% -2% 5% 7% 14% 16% 8% 8% 4%QoQ Deposit Growth 3% 1% 4% 0% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 2% 5%Deposits/Liabilities 78% 77% 78% 82% 82% 86% 85% 87% 88% 88% 87% 88%Tier 1 CAR % 7.7 7.0 6.8 8.5 8.7 8.5 8.4 10.6 10.3 11.1 10.0 11.0Total CAR % 12.3 11.5 11.2 12.4 12.8 12.1 11.6 13.9 13.4 14.2 12.6 13.3SLR Domestic Banking Unit 21% 22% 20% 22% 25% 28% 30% 30% 33% 35% 31% 26%SLR Off Shore Banking Unit 43% 31% 25% 28% 29% 31% 31% 29% 40% 51% 38% 37% Net Interest Income >> Net interest margins increased marginally to 5.6% in 1QFY10 as liabilities were revised downwards ahead of a downward revision in lending rates sparked by a sharp decline in treasury yields earlier in the year. Competitive pressures and the present lower interest rate regime has seen net interest margins contract marginally in FY10 and is likely to decline further over the next two years. The bank continues to show improvements in its management of net interest margins with a narrower maturity mismatch and effective management of its asset and deposit mix. We expect the favourable volume variance will result in healthy net interest income growth in FY11 and FY12. Net interest margins for the bank are expected to average at around 4.6% - 4.8% over the next few years. 2008 2009 2010SAMP.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4NIM 4.15 4.44 4.68 4.89 5.07 5.16 5.17 5.00 5.59 5.27 5.08 5.00Net Interest Income Rs. mn 1,371 1,595 1,757 1,878 1,732 1,910 2,027 2,204 2,241 2,091 2,113 2,241 Non-Interest Income >> SAMP has consistently pioneered the adoption of technology into banking services among local banks since its inception in 1987. These value added services along with other non-interest income revenue streams such as foreign exchange and trade finance income should see non-interest income continue to account for approximately a third of the bank’s net income. We expect recurring non-interest income to grow at approximately 20% year on year on despite lower foreign exchange income on expectations of a stable currency in the near term. 2008 2009 2010SAMP.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Fee Income / Operating Income 32% 29% 28% 34% 32% 29% 35% 49% 23% 39% 25% 49%
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 33 Operating Expenses >> The bank’s cost to income ratio was significantly lower this year given the high exceptional gains on share sales; however the cost to income ratio on recurring net income and expenses still remains in line with the sector average but higher than other established peers such as COMB and NDB. The decline in cost to income is however commendable given the fact that the bank opened 19 new branches in 2009, more than any other bank in the country, without adding significant numbers to its staff cadre and a further 40 new branches in 2010. With a an additional 20 new branches to be opened in 2011 we anticipate a sharper rise in personnel and establishment expenses. The bank has also undertaken to renovate selected branches as part of its efforts to improve its offering to customers. The branch expansion drive will place SAMP on par with the two larger private commercial banks in terms of its branch network, whilst having a significantly lower staff cadre. The company will also migrate to a performance based remuneration of staff from FY11. Cost to income ratios over the last couple of years are lower due to cost control in the midst of expansion but declines are pronounced due to significant non-recurring gains recorded over the last two years. 2008 2009 2010SAMP.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Operating Expenses (Excl VAT) Rs.’mn 1042 1107 1242 1345 1273 1377 1389 1511 1491 1593 1712 1700Cost / Income (Excl VAT) 52% 50% 51% 47% 50% 51% 45% 35% 51% 46% 61% 39%Branches 119 121 121 122 124 125 131 139 143 149 167 180Employees 2433 2548 2535 2513 2491 2475 2480 2518 2554 2670 2759 2837Employees per branch 20 21 21 21 20 20 19 18 18 18 17 16 Tax Revisions >> Tax revisions announced in the Budget Proposals for 2011 including a decline in corporate tax from 35% to 28% and a reduction in financial VAT from 20% to 12% means effective tax rates for the banking sector have declined from approximately 60% to 45%. Banks will however have to allocate 13% of PBT for a period of 3 years for development oriented projects against which the bank can lend at concessionary rates for development projects with a longer tenor of around 7 to 10 years. Interest income arising from this would be free of income tax. The resulting effect is a significant boost to ROE and ROA, in the sector and will permit greater capital accumulation at the bank to fund loan growth going forward. Valuations >> At a market price of Rs. 293.00 the counter currently trades at a PER of 11.5x FY11E and 9.5x FY12E core earnings and a P/BV of 2.7x based on the NAV per share as at 30th December 2010 at a market price of Rs. 293.00. The counter trades at a 16% discount to the sector. Given the banks aggressive growth plans, and its strengthened senior management; we believe the counter should trade at a premium to the sector. We recommend BUY.
Sri Lanka Equities John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd. CORPORATE UPDATE A JKSB Research Publication March 2011 Yolan Seimon email@example.comNational Development Bank PLC Rs 361.00 BUY NDB Valuation Metrics Dec 07A Dec 08A Dec 09A Dec 10A Dec 11E Dec 12E Dec 13E Reuters Code NDB.CM Net Income (Rs. mn) 4,746 5,449 6,793 7,052 8,391 9,901 11,798 Bloomberg Code NDB.SL Pre-Provision Profit (Rs. Mn) 2,218 2,503 3,189 3,164 4,157 4,997 6,068 Share Price LKR 361.00 NPAT (Rs. mn) 1,272 1,605 2,085 2,150 2,847 3,513 4,352 Issued Share Capital (Shares) EPS (Rs.) 15.5 19.5 25.4 26.2 34.7 42.8 53.0 Voting 82,100,951 EPS Growth % (37.4) 26.2 29.9 3.1 32.4 23.4 23.9 12 mth High/Low (Rs.) 410.00 / 179.00 Average Daily Volume (Shares) 125,351 PER (x) 23.3 18.5 14.2 13.8 10.4 8.4 6.8 Market Capitalisation Rs. mn 29,638 P/BV 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.1 Price Performance (%) Dividend Yield % 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1 mth 6 mth 12 mth DPS Rs. 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 ASPI 8.70 18.82 105.54 NAV/Share 142 154 173 176 220 263 316 NDB 0.56 13.44 65.68 ROE % 10.9 12.7 14.7 14.9 15.7 16.3 16.8* Adjusted for splits, bonus and rights issues NDB ADJUSTED PRICE - VOLUME GRAPH Rs. Volume >> The National Development was consequently merged with NDB to form NDB Bank in mid-2005 under440 Volume 9,000,000 Bank was established through an Act420 Price Rs. the Companys Act.400 8,000,000 of Parliament in 1979 as one of two state owned Development Finance >> NDB has over the last 10 years380360 7,000,000 Institutions to provide project funding340 transformed its operations from a one-320 to the private sector and distribute300 6,000,000 product project lending operation to credit lines received from multilateral280 a more diversified ‘Universal Bank’260 5,000,000 agencies.240 offering retail banking, corporate >> The bank was privatized in 1993 banking, leasing, investment banking,220 4,000,000200180 stock broking and insurance in addition 3,000,000 with the bank recording impressive160 to its project finance division.140 2,000,000 growth in the mid to late ‘90s with total >> The bank is still an entity in120100 assets growing at a CAGR of 20.25% 80 1,000,000 from 1995 to 2000 when it moved into 60 transition into commercial banking commercial banking. 40 0 with a mid-sized branch network of >> The bank’s main source of 21-May-08 25-May-09 24-May-10 11-Sep-06 18-Sep-07 06-Dec-07 18-Dec-08 30-Sep-09 10-Dec-10 27-Feb-08 11-Mar-09 15-Feb-11 15-Mar-10 20-Nov-06 27-Jan-06 29-Jan-07 06-Jan-10 10-Oct-08 29-Oct-09 05-Oct-10 19-Jun-06 05-Apr-06 16-Apr-07 05-Jul-07 28-Jul-08 27-Jul-09 30-Jul-10 just 47 branches with a recent footprint established in the North and East. funding in the nineties was the NDB has resisted a rapid expansion concessionary credit lines obtained of its branch network, choosing rather from multilateral agencies. However to leverage on technology and feet on realizing that credit lines from such street strategies in going its deposit sources are likely to reduce with the base. The efforts have had mixed country achieving certain benchmarks results with the bank having to be of development, the bank sought to competitive in the market in order enter the commercial banking arena via to diversify its fund base which now the merger with NDB Bank (formerly accounts for 68% of liabilities. The ABN AMRO, Sri Lanka) giving it higher CASA ratios in comparison to access to low cost retail deposits. NDB more established commercial banking Bank was incorporated in 2001 as a entities have meant consistently separate commercial banking entity andThis document is published by John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt.) Limited for the exclusive use of their clients. All information has been compiled from availabledocumentation and JKSB’s own research material. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this issue, neither JKSBnor its employees can accept responsibility for any decisions made by investors based on information contained herein.
38 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy narrower net interest margins. NIMs are however expected to increase moderately as we expect NDB to witness a sharper shift toward low cost deposits from term deposits as the rate differential narrows in a low interest rate environment. >> The bank continues to display superior asset quality and strong provision cover in comparison to peers stemming from prudent management practices as well as specialized credit evaluation expertise it has retained from its period as a development bank. Furthermore aggressive credit growth at the bank was intentionally eased from 2008 until last year given the poor macro-economic conditions. The healthier balance sheet that resulted when the civil conflict ended has given NDB a strong platform to launch out on a more aggressive growth trajectory. >> Management has been very explicit over the last few years of its intention to grow inorganically as well. The bank displays very strong Tier 1 and Total capital adequacy ratios in addition to a low cost to income ratio, high provision cover and the best asset quality in the industry. Furthermore, it’s smaller branch network makes NDB all the more likely to attract M&A activity. Financial Performance >> NDB recorded marginal earnings growth of just 3% in FY10 largely as result of earnings for FY09 of Rs. 2.1bn assisted by a 54% increase in other income which included capital gains on bond trading amounting to Rs. 733mn as well as capital gains on the sale of quoted and non-quoted equities. The bank recorded flat net interest income growth and net interest margins declined amid competitive pressures in a lower interest rate environment. Non-interest income increased by 9% largely as a result of gains on disposal of quoted and non-quoted securities during the year, which it acquired as a part of its project financing business. >> Operating expenses grew by 15% yoy while strong recoveries as seen across the sector last year resulted in healthy write backs over and above provisioning requirements for the year. Associate income via its stake in AVIVA NDB were lower at the insurance business due to increased marketing spend on a rebranding initiative and lower profitability of the general insurance segment. Loan Growth and Asset Quality >> Loan growth at the bank for FY10 was a healthy 30%, well above an estimated 22.6% in credit growth for the industry. Much of the loan growth stemmed from the bank’s strong pipeline of project lending as well as an increase in retail consumption loans. The bank has diversified its loan book over the years from being a 100% long term project lender in 2001 to having a corporate lending portfolio accounting for 47% of its loan book with project finance and retail banking now accounting for approximately 30% and 23% respectively. Despite the contraction of the loan book in FY09, the bank’s retail lending portfolio notably increased by 12%. >> An anticipated increase in domestic and external trade already evident should see steady credit demand for its commercial lending portfolio with new branches in the Norther and Eastern provinces being set up by the bank in the 2H FY09. The bank is expected to benefit from credit demand from infrastructure projects for
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 39 which it leverages on a comprehensive array of project financing skills that the bank has consciously sought to retain and develop over the last 30 years. >> Loan growth in the bank for the full year in FY11 is expected at 22.8% and 20.1% in FY12. The bank also rolled out credit cards in FY09 which should benefit from an anticipated upturn in retail consumer credit demand. Retail lending however will continue to be driven by focused segments of housing loans, leasing, and personal loans including mortgage backed education loans and personal consumption loans. >> The bank’s asset quality continues to remain the best among local private commercial banks with a reported gross and net NPL ratio of 1.87% and 0.46 % respectively as at end December 2010 compared to an industry gross NPL ratio of 5.3%. 2008 2009 2010NDB.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Net Loans and Advances Rs. ‘mn 51,451 55,586 57,230 54,589 52,981 50,429 50,305 54,106 55,772 58,668 63,010 70,519QoQ Loan Growth 8.04% 2.96% -4.61% -2.95% -4.82% -0.25% 7.56% 3.08% 5.19% 7.40% 11.92%Total Assets Rs. ‘mn 78,841 82,936 83,412 83,280 86,748 90,310 89,966 99,286 95,894 97,539 103,038 108,712Loan/Assets 65% 67% 69% 66% 61% 56% 56% 54% 58% 60% 61% 65%Loan/Deposit 191% 194% 200% 176% 154% 131% 115% 108% 112% 121% 121% 119%Net Provision and Recoveries Rs. mn 13 8 45 106 107 46 37 96 70 (14) (15) (212)QoQ Provision Expense Growth -40% 459% 138% 1% -57% -20% 162% -27% -120% -10% -1280%Gross NPL % 2.61 2.45 2.24 2.29 2.6 3.09 3.02 2.58 2.43 2.34 2.08 1.87Net NPL % 1.17 0.98 0.76 0.58 0.76 1.07 0.88 0.62 0.53 0.46 0.3 0.46 Funding and Capital >> Customer deposits now account for over 68% of total funding as at end December FY10 from being almost entirely funded by government and multilateral sources in 2001. The bank has been competitive in its deposit rates which have enabled the bank to outpace peers in its deposit growth in recent years. The bank’s cost of funds are however higher than most peers such as COMB, HNB and SAMP which enjoy a larger proportion of low cost savings deposits to total deposits. Time deposits at NDB account for 71% of total customer deposits with demand and low cost savings deposits accounting for 12.3% and 17.01% respectively. >> Deposit growth for FY09 was 61% with the commercial banking sector benefiting from a loss of consumer confidence over the safety of deposits in non- banking financial institutions since mid-2008. Deposit growth for FY10 was a sound 19% against a sector average estimated at 15.6%. New branches opened in the North and East as well as the roll out of competitively priced savings products will attract an increasing amount of low cost savings deposits. In addition a lower interest rate differential between term and savings deposits has resulted in a steady shift in the deposit mix in favour of savings deposits. >> The bank’s Tier 1 and Total capital stood at 17.8% and 20.3% respectively as at 30th December 2010, well above minimum statutory requirements of 5% and 10% respectively.
40 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy 2008 2009 2010NDB.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4CASA Rs. mn 8,735 8,423 8,355 7,988 7,920 8,441 9,511 11,308 12,446 12,327 13,783 17,396Total Deposits Rs. mn 26,924 28,673 28,612 31,091 34,315 38,520 43,594 49,948 49,907 48,309 52,120 59,364CASA 32% 29% 29% 26% 23% 22% 22% 23% 25% 26% 26% 29%QoQ CASA Growth -4% -1% -4% -1% 7% 13% 19% 10% -1% 12% 26%QoQ Deposit Growth 6% 0% 9% 10% 12% 13% 15% 0% -3% 8% 14%Deposits/Liabilities 41% 41% 41% 44% 47% 50% 58% 59% 61% 58% 60% 68%Tier 1 CAR % 22.3 18.9 18.4 20.0 19.2 19.1 19.3 20.6 19.2 18.5 18.1 17.8Total CAR % 25.2 22.6 22.1 23.6 22.9 22.7 23.0 23.8 22.4 21.5 21.1 20.3SLR Domestic Banking Unit 22% 24% 22% 24% 29% 36% 41% 41% 35% 27% 31% 26%SLR Off Shore Banking Unit 25% 21% 23% 22% 28% 28% 31% 29% 28% 26% 30% 26% Net Interest Income >> Widening net interest margins will be challenging given competitive pressures in lending and attracting of deposits. Much of the scope in enhancing margins would depend on the extent to which NDB can grow its retail loan book while concurrently improving its CASA ratio. We expect net interest margins to rise to around 4.3% by year end FY11 on account of a continued steady shift toward lower cost deposits. 2008 2009 2010NDB.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4NIM 4.00 3.92 3.93 4.06 4.77 4.41 4.46 4.15 4.04 4.03 4.03 3.86Net Interest Income Rs. mn 900 913 942 1,033 1,156 997 1,095 986 1,057 1,055 1,129 1,025 Non-Interest Income >> Other income on the back of gains from a sale of quoted and non-quoted securities will augment net income. Trade finance activities are expected to increase with a reduction in lending rates and the withdrawal of additional credit margin requirements for import of goods as well as the likely reduction in import duties. A stable SLR to the US$ is expected to result in muted foreign exchange income while active treasury operations and fee based commissions should see non-interest income continuing to account for approximately 35% of total net income. 2008 2009 2010NDB.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Fee Income / Operating Income 35% 32% 31% 25% 30% 46% 40% 33% 34% 40% 48% 32% Operating Expenses >> NDB continues to record a relatively low cost to income ratio in comparison to peers. Centralisation of processes and increased use of technology across all operations has enabled the bank to steadily curtail operating expenditure. Further centralization of support functions in the bank is expected to result in further modest improvements in the cost to income ratio. 2008 2009 2010NDB.SL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Operating Expenses (Excl VAT) Rs.’mn 559 545 585 699 608 657 655 750 727 787 747 803Cost / Income (Excl VAT) 41% 41% 43% 51% 37% 35% 36% 51% 45% 44% 35% 53%Branches 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 44 45 45 45 47Employees 874 889 915 946 942 964 987 991 1029 1067 1081 1126Employees per branch 22 22 23 24 24 24 25 23 23 24 24 24
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 41 Outlook >> Insurance Business: The bank holds 41.14% of AVIVA NDB Insurance PLC, with Aviva PLC having controlling interest of the entity. AVIVA NDB insurance PLC is the 3rd and 5th largest insurance company in the Life and Non- Life insurance business in Sri Lanka respectively with a market share of 19.49% in Life and 7.48% in Non-Life. The company contributed a weak Rs. 295mn in associate company earnings in FY10 and we conservatively estimate the entity to contribute Rs. 360m in FY11. >> Consolidation: The bank has repeatedly voiced the need for consolidation in the banking sector; a position that we also subscribe to along with most players in the banking sector. Rationalisation of costs as a result of a merger or acquisition will be substantial thus improving ROE levels from the present muted 14% - 15% levels at the bank. In addition NDB being a well managed highly capitalized bank with a modest branch network of about 47 branches makes it an attractive entity to partner with. NDB Bank has been actively looking for M & A opportunities in the sector and has repeatedly voiced its desire for inorganic growth While we feel consolidation in the banking sector is inevitable given the value that can be unlocked from an ROE perspective; issues pertaining to ownership restrictions on banks and strong employee trade unions have among others issues discouraged consolidation thus far. Valuations >> Earnings growth forecasts of 32.4% in FY11 and 23.4% in FY12 correspond to a PER of 10.4x and 8.4x respectively at a market price of Rs. 361.00 and a corresponding P/BV of 2.10x based on the NAV as of 30th December 2010. The bank recently announced a 1 for 1 share split, while NDB has a recent track record of a 40%+ dividend payout ratio, the highest among listed banks. The counter currently trades at a 24% discount to the sector. We recommend BUY.Ratio Analysis 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013EPrice / Book Value 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.1EPS 15.5 19.6 25.5 26.3 34.8 42.9 53.2PER 23.2 18.4 14.2 13.7 10.4 8.4 6.8EPS Growth 25.4% 26.2% 29.9% 3.1% 32.4% 23.4% 23.9%DVD YLD 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%ROE 10.9% 12.7% 14.68% 14.9% 15.7% 16.3% 16.8%ROAE 11.4% 13.2% 15.5% 15.0% 17.5% 17.7% 18.3%ROAA 1.8% 2.0% 2.3% 2.1% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8%NIM 4.4% 4.1% 4.2% 3.9% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%Fee Income / Operating Income 26% 30% 38% 39% 40% 41% 41%Cost / Income 53.3% 54.1% 53.1% 55.1% 50.5% 49.5% 48.6%Cost / Income (Excl VAT) 43.8% 44.6% 43.6% 45.6% 41.0% 40.0% 39.1%Cost / Average Assets 3.58% 3.70% 3.95% 3.74% 3.64% 3.67% 3.68%Loan Growth 17.4% 10.7% -2.5% 32.5% 22.8% 20.1% 20.0%Asset Growth 17.2% 9.4% 19.2% 9.5% 13.9% 15.7% 17.5%RWA Growth 20.4% 8.1% 19.2% 9.5% 13.9% 15.7% 17.5%Loan/ Deposits 192.5% 175.6% 106.5% 118.8% 130.2% 135.3% 137.6%Loan / Assets 64.8% 65.5% 53.6% 64.9% 69.9% 72.5% 74.1%Deposit / Liabilities 48.3% 49.3% 71.3% 70.3% 71.8% 73.0% 74.9%Equity / Assets 15.3% 15.2% 14.3% 13.3% 14.6% 15.1% 15.4%NPL Ratio 1.67% 2.34% 2.58% 1.92% 2.00% 2.10% 2.20%NPL Coverage 213.1% 146.7% 137.8% 138.0% 135.0% 125.0% 110.0%NPL Ratio 6.19% 5.52% 7.03% 8.00% 7.63% 3.95% 4.00%NPL Coverage 82.4% 82.3% 63.6% 66.5% 63.4% 104.9% 105.0%
Sri Lanka Equities John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd.CORPORATE UPDATE A JKSB Research PublicationMarch 2011 Navin Ratnayake firstname.lastname@example.orgTokyo Cement Company (Lanka) PLCVoting Rs 63.00; Non-Voting Rs 44.00 BUYTKYO Valuation Metrics Mar 08A Mar 09A Mar 10A Mar 11E Mar 12E Mar 13EReuters Code TKYO.CMBloomberg Code TKYO.SL Revenue (Rs. mn) 14,029 17,652 14,634 17,984 20,498 24,475Share Price LKR EBITDA (Rs. mn) 1,524 2,444 2,179 2,561 2,884 3,359 Voting 63.00 EBIT (Rs. mn) 927 1,438 1,138 1,512 1,915 2,463 Non-Voting 44.00Issued Share Capital (Shares) PAT (Rs. mn) 554 347 291 959 1,512 2,149 Voting 202,500,000 EPS 1.8 1.1 1.0 3.2 5.0 7.1 Non-Voting 101,250,000 EPS Growth (31.9) (37.4) (16.0) 229.1 57.6 42.112 mth High/Low- Voting (Rs.) 69.00 / 28.0012 mth High/Low- Non-Voting (Rs.) 46.40 / 17.75 P/E (x) Voting 34.5 55.1 65.7 19.9 12.7 8.9Market Capitalisation (Rs.mn) 17,213 P/E (x) Non Voting 24.1 38.5 45.9 13.9 8.8 6.2Average Daily Volume (Shares) Voting 180,630 EV/EBITDA 12.1 7.3 8.6 6.8 5.4 3.9Average Daily Volume (Shares) Non Voting 590,133Price Performance (%) Dividend Yield (Voting) 0.6 0.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 1 mth 6 mth 12 mth Dividend Yield (Non Voting) 0.9 0.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8ASPI 8.70 18.82 105.54 P/B (x) 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.3 1.8TKYO.N 5.18 61.54 113.56TKYO.X 0.23 57.35 125.13 ROE % 11.1 6.6 5.3 15.6 19.9 22.2TKYO.N ADJUSTED PRICE / VOLUME GRAPHPrice Volume >> The hoped for upturn in infrastructure projects is expected to fast track the growth momentum in the 80 1,200,000 construction activity after the Volume industry indicating a 10% plus growth Price Rs. conclusion of the war took longer than rate through CY12. 70 1,000,000 expected to materialize, with real signs 60 of the sector picking up only apparent in the last half of 2010. Despite this >> TKYO’s main production facility is located in the Eastern sea port we feel that Tokyo Cement’s increased 800,000 50 of Trincomalee, ideally located for capacity will prove timely over the the rebuilding boom. A doubling of 40 600,000 next few years. We expect exceptional grinding capacity in FY09 to 1.8m MT earnings in the coming years thanks boosted total installed capacity to 2.4m to the anticipated boom driven by 30 400,000 MT per annum. Tokyo Cement also reconstruction in the North and East 20 completed its long delayed 10MW Bio as well as by the massive infrastructure 200,000 Mass power plant in FY09 which will undertakings all over the island. provide its total electricity requirement 10 0 0 >> Post war rebuilding in the war while the excess is sold to the national grid. Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 torn North and East will now be Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 compounded by the damage done by the floods that happened over the last >> The cement industry imports half of its requirement providing domestic quarter of 2010. The resurgence of the producers ample ground for expansion. construction sector can be found in With the construction industry figures for 3Q:CY2010 which showed expected to boom, cement growth is that GDP growth of 8.0% was exceeded expected to increase by 15% in FY11. by the Construction sub-sector which grew at 11.3% for the period. The end of the North-East conflict and the rebuilding effort through housing andThis document is published by John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt.) Limited for the exclusive use of their clients. All information has been compiled from availabledocumentation and JKSB’s own research material. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this issue, neither JKSBnor its employees can accept responsibility for any decisions made by investors based on information contained herein.
46 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy TKYO.X Price / Volume Graph Volume >> Tokyo Cement is one of the largest grinders of Portland and Pozzollana cement in Sri Lanka on a joint venture between local conglomerate St. Antony’sPrice 50 16,000,000 Volume 45 Price Consolidated and Nippon Coke & Engineering Company of Japan. The group structure consists of 3 subsidiaries out of which Fuji Cement Company (Lanka) 14,000,000 40 12,000,000 Ltd. (FCCL) and Tokyo Super Cement Company Lanka (Pvt) Ltd. (TSCCL) 35 are fully owned while Tokyo Cement Colombo Terminal (Pvt) Ltd. (TCCT) is a 30 10,000,000 56.85% subsidiary. Tokyo Cement operates a cement grinding plant with a capacity 25 8,000,000 of 600,000 MT while FCCL cement grinding plant capacity is 300,000 MT. Both plants are situated in Trincomalee where the company owns a private 100 metre 20 6,000,000 jetty, which can berth 25,000 tonnage ships. TCCT operates a bagging plant 15 within the Port of Colombo consisting of 600,000 MT. 4,000,000 >> The newly constructed grinding plant of 900,000MT capacity in Trincomalee 10 2,000,000 is fully owned by TSCCL and has doubled the grinding capacity of the Group to 5 0 0 1.8m MT while the total capacity extends to 2.4m MT with the bagging plant in Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Colombo. >> The group currently owns 3 ships with capacities of 17,500 MT, 20,000 MT & 22,000 MT respectively to ensure an uninterrupted supply of raw materials, predominantly clinker. Construction Industry >> The construction industry boomed in 2006 & 2007 as growth rates picked up by 9.2% and 9% respectively on the back of rapid escalation of housing and condominium projects. But with inflation and interest rates skyrocketing as the civil war came to its conclusion, the sector lost its momentum. However the latter half of 2010 saw the sector finally recover after a longer than expected lag after the end of the war. With lower interest rates and the commencement of large scale infrastructure development with the ports and road networks we feel that the sector should surpass the growth rates of 2006-2007. >> In addition to the reconstruction demanded by the war torn provinces of the North and East, the floods that hit the Eastern and North Central Provinces in the last quarter have also caused substantial damage to infrastructure like irrigation networks, roads and houses and buildings. Economic damage from this has been estimated at 1% of GDP. While this will have a short term impact on TKYO’s final March 2011 quarter we feel that demand for cement will be spurred by the needs for rebuilding over FY12. >> Sri Lanka also suffers from an estimated shortage of 400,000 housing units countrywide with the gap estimated to increase to 650,000 over the next few years by the Central Bank. Some estimates of the housing market in the Western Province put annual demand at 40,000 units. The majority of cement sales in the country are predominantly retail driven, but with increasing economic development we expect the proportion of commercial usage to correspondingly increase. Cement Industry >> The current total cement consumption is approximately 5-6m MT per annum with domestic production at almost 4m MT and the rest imported from countries such as India, China, Thailand and Indonesia.
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 47>> The domestic production of cement is dominated by Tokyo Cement andHolcim Lanka each having approximately a 30% market share (inclusive ofimported cement). Both companies are looking to expand production capacity withonly 47% of the demand met by domestic production and grinding. Tokyo Cementalready doubled its grinding capacity in CY08 while Holcim has obtained approvalto expand to Trinco. Tokyo Cement has capacity of 2.4m MT per annum whileHolcim has 1.4m MT per annum.>> While imported cement from firms like Ultratech and Lafarge (which areboth believed to have 30% of share collectively) are present in the market, Tokyocontinues to enjoy both location and cost benefits as well as having a reputation forquality in a market which has gotten wary of lower quality imports.Clinker>> Clinker is the largest cost for the Group amounting to approximately 85% ofproduction cost (including freight). Tokyo Cement imports clinker mainly fromThailand, Indonesia and Malaysia while powder for the bagging plant of TCCTLis imported from Indonesia. The Group purchased 3 vessels with the intention ofsaving on freight charges which amounts to almost 40% of production cost. Thecompany makes a considerable saving on freight by maintaining its own fleet ofships.10MW Bio Mass Power Plant>> Tokyo uses approximately 40kWh of energy annually. The company satisfiesits energy requirement through its own 3.5MW thermal power plant and partly bythe national grid. The energy costs account for 6% of the group production costs.Tokyo Cement commissioned a 10MW Bio Mass power plant which would meetthe entire energy requirement of the Group with the excess power being sold to theNational Grid. The power plant uses paddy husks available especially in the NorthCentral and the Eastern Provinces, where rice mills are in abundance. Fuel wood isto be obtained from Gliricidia plantations.>> The success of the venture into power has made the company Incorporate afully owned subsidiary called “Tokyo Cement Power (Lanka) Ltd” for the purposesetting up and operating power generation with the focus on dendro (bio mass)generation.>> Apart from the considerable cost savings with the Bio Mass power plant, thecompany now qualifies for carbon credits worth of Rs.20m-30m. Tokyo Cementis also testing ‘green cement’ products, made using clean energy for electricityand admixtures like fly ash and burnt rice husk ash, which have good bindingproperties, as a component of cement.Earnings>> Clinker prices appear set to recover from the dips in 2010, while prices fora 50kg cement bag have recovered from about Rs.700 to the Rs.730-740 levels.Volumes and revenues should pick up by the middle of this calendar year withconstruction already having picked up and the reconstruction from the floodscommences.
48 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy >> Borrowings have decreased by 11% over the twelve months to December 2010. We expect finance costs to sharply fall over the next few years as the company pays off debt thanks to its cash generation as well as due to lower debt financing. The debt was incurred for the installation of the new vertical roller mill which doubled grinding capacity as well as the bio mass power plant. Outlook >> We expect Tokyo Cement revenue to reach almost Rs.18bn for FY11 in spite of the previous year’s drop in sales prices with the decline in raw material prices. TKYO volumes are expected to pick up as the construction sector is likely to improve with favourable macro economic conditions. In addition to the declining interest rates, reconstruction efforts should pave the way for rapid development in the cleared provinces. >> Given the number of infrastructure projects in the pipeline, the rebuilding of the North and East with houses, schools, hospitals, roads and bridges would indicate considerable growth, signaling a significant boost in demand for cement. We expect TKYO to post earnings of Rs.959m and Rs.1,512m for FY11E and FY12E respectively >> At Rs. 63.00, the voting share trades at a PER of 19.9x FY11 earnings and 12.7x FY12 earnings. At Rs. 44.00, the non-voting share trades at a PER of 13.9x FY11 earnings and 8.8x FY12 earnings. With the stock being one of the better exposures to the expected boom in North East infrastructure building, we recommend BUY.Ratios and Valuation Mar 08A Mar 09A Mar 10A Mar 11E Mar 12E Mar 13EGrowth (%)Sales 26.26 25.83 (17.09) 22.89 13.98 19.40EBIT (22.57) 55.12 (20.84) 32.80 26.70 28.59Net Profit (31.94) (37.36) (16.00) 229.13 57.57 42.13EPS (31.94) (37.36) (16.00) 229.13 57.57 42.13Margins (%)EBITDA 10.86 13.85 14.89 14.24 14.07 13.73EBIT 6.61 8.15 7.78 8.40 9.34 10.06Pre-Tax margin 3.86 3.67 1.85 5.58 7.72 9.19Net Margin 3.95 1.97 1.99 5.33 7.37 8.78Valuation Metrics (x)P/E 34.54 55.15 65.65 19.95 12.66 8.91P/B 3.44 3.28 3.16 2.80 2.27 1.78EV/EBITDA 12.11 7.33 8.58 6.78 5.38 3.90EV/EBIT 19.90 12.46 16.42 11.48 8.10 5.31ROE % 11.07 6.62 5.34 15.59 19.92 22.22
50 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market StrategyCashflow Statement 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013EAs at 31st March Rs. ‘mn Rs. ‘mn Rs. ‘mn Rs. ‘mn Rs. ‘mn Rs. ‘mnNet profit before tax 541.0 647.0 270.3 1,007.2 1,592.6 2,248.7Adjustments 990.0 1,822.0 1,862.2 1,571.5 1,299.6 1,079.9Changes in Working Capital 201.0 939.0 (625.9) (344.8) 29.1 46.0Interest paid (386.0) (791.0) (868.0) (504.4) (322.6) (214.1)Tax Paid (51.0) (93.0) - (1.0) 23.1 (16.7)Defined Benefit Obligations paid (1.0) - - (5.0) - -Net cashflow from operating activities 1,294.0 2,524.0 638.7 1,723.5 2,621.8 3,143.8Investing ActivitiesFixed Assets (611.0) (1,917.0) (290.6) (400.0) (300.0) (300.0)Interest received 4.0 - - 6.9 16.5 55.9Expenditure on capital WIP (1,309.0) (328.0) - (200.0) (200.0) (200.0)Other 2.0 - (66.8) - - -Net cashflow from investing activities (1,914.0) (2,245.0) (357.4) (593.1) (483.5) (444.1)Financing ActivitiesProceeds from issued capital - - - - - -Receipt / (Repayment) of term loans 300.0 (75.0) (68.7) (150.0) (200.0) (200.0)Dividends (33.0) (108.0) - (81.0) (135.0) (135.0)Other (22.0) (54.0) - (22.0) (22.0) (22.0)Net Cashflow from financing activities 245.0 (237.0) (68.7) (253.0) (357.0) (357.0)Net cash and cash equivalents (375.0) 42.0 212.6 877.4 1,781.3 2,342.7Cash and cash equivalentsAt start of the year 203.0 (172.0) (130.8) (130.0) 747.4 2,528.7Increase / (Decrease) (375.0) 42.0 212.6 877.4 1,781.3 2,342.7At end of period (172.0) (130.0) 81.8 747.4 2,528.7 4,871.4 John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd. 130 Glennie Street Colombo 2 Sri Lanka T. 9411 2306 250, 9411 2342 066-7 F. 9411 2342 068 www.jksb.com Company No. PV 89
Sri Lanka Equities John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd. CORPORATE UPDATE A JKSB Research Publication March 2011 Navin Ratnayake email@example.com Royal Ceramics PLC Rs 159.00 BUY RCL Valuation Metrics Mar 08A Mar 09A Mar 10A Mar 11E Mar 12E Mar 13E Reuters Code RCL.CM Revenue (Rs. mn) 3,475 3,741 4,451 5,872 7,164 8,597 Bloomberg Code RCL.SL EBITDA (Rs. mn) 1,195 1,194 1,722 2,106 2,334 2,828 Share Price LKR 159.00 EBIT (Rs. mn) 992 959 1,382 1,828 2,042 2,521 Issued Share Capital (Shares) PAT (Rs. ‘mn) 611 518 963 1,488 1,737 2,249 Voting 110,789,384 EPS 5.51 4.67 8.69 13.43 15.68 20.30 12 mth High/Low (Rs.) 167.5 / 47.5 EPS Growth 85.63 -15.21 85.92 54.53 16.73 29.50 Market Capitalisation (Rs.mn) 17,616 P/E (x) 28.84 34.01 18.30 11.84 10.14 7.83 Average Daily Volume (Shares) 239,163 Price Performance (%) - Voting EV/EBITDA 15.84 15.54 10.75 8.76 7.74 6.08 1 mth 6 mth 12 mth Dividend Yield (%) 0.63 1.26 3.14 3.14 3.14 3.14 ASPI 8.70 18.82 105.54 P/B (x) 6.64 5.76 4.64 3.48 2.68 2.05 RCL 6.00 70.05 234.74 ROE % 23.02 16.92 25.37 29.43 26.46 26.20 * Adjusted for splits, bonus and rights issuesRCL ADJUSTED PRICE / VOLUME GRAPH >> Sri Lanka’s floor tiles market demand. With expectations of doubling per capita income to US$4,000 byPrice Volume displayed unusual resilience in the face180 30,000,000 2014 we feel the resulting higher living of difficult economic conditions in standards should boost overall housing 2007-2008 and continues to display 160 unit growth and remodeling along with robust revenue growth. Royal Ceramics 25,000,000 the broader construction sector. 140 is the largest domestic manufacturer of the product with a market share that we estimate at approximately 40%. >> Royal Ceramics should also 120 20,000,000 greatly benefit from the development of 100 >> Royal Ceramics has two the North and East markets as well as from large scale hotel and BOI projects. production facilities at Eheliyagoda 15,000,000 We expect this demand to kick in only and Horana which have a capacity of 80 after FY2011 as tiling and bathware 11,000 square meters a day. Of the two stages for retail construction would 60 10,000,000 facilities, Eheliyagoda produces only happen after a significant time lag. porcelain tiles with a capacity of 3,500 40 square meters. >> Tile industry growth is estimated 5,000,000 to be at 15-20% for floor tiles with 20 the total market estimated at 12.5mm Industry 0 0 >> Support for the tile market came square meters per annum or Rs.13.5bn. Growth rates in the past five years from the Government during 2007- Jan-10 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-06 Jan-07 Oct-09 Oct-10 Jan-11 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-06 Apr-07 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 averaged 6-7%. The economically 2008 which doubled the minimum dominant Western and Southern tariff applicable to ceramic tile imports provinces account for much of this to Rs. 200 per square meter from the volume, with a demand of at least 60- previous Rs. 100 per square meter 70%. With an imminent construction which we believe would have dropped boom expected in the North and East the share of mostly Chinese imports for (which traditionally accounted for at the total market by as much as 50%. least 15% of the country’s GDP) we >> Floor tiles are an aspirational expect RCL to benefit from not only state sponsored rebuilding projects but product for upwardly mobile Sri also retail construction. Lankans with both rural and urban This document is published by John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt.) Limited for the exclusive use of their clients. All information has been compiled from available documentation and JKSB’s own research material. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this issue, neither JKSB nor its employees can accept responsibility for any decisions made by investors based on information contained herein.
52 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy >> The average tile consumption of 0.7 square meters per person demonstrates the potential of the market when taking into account other averages like China (2 square meters per person), Europe (5 to 6 square meters per person) or Brazil (2.5 square meters per person). Averages tend to be boosted by larger scale construction of projects like condominiums, hotels and malls which would follow with higher income levels. Bathware >> Royal Ceramics venture into bathware has proved more successful than anticipated with the operation achieving break even an year before expected in FY10. The facility which is located in Panagoda currently has a rated annual capacity of 250,000 pieces per annum and has a 90 cubic metre kiln, automated driers and glazing lines. Investment in the facility came to Rs.1.8bn. >> Rocell competes with brands such as Kohler, American Standard and Toto. The market had previously been dominated by imports and market shares were fragmented with no single dominant supplier. The size of the bathware market is estimated at around 600,000 pieces a year, including the market for squatting pans which is around 175,000 pieces a year. >> Production technology and bathware designs are from Italy. Products start at a price of around Rs.20,000 and go up to Rs.80,000 targeting the middle and upper end of the market- the strategy being not to compete with cheaper Chinese and Indian products. The Rocell branding strategy of marketing tiles as lifestyle trappings instead of generic building materials has been extended to bathware as well. >> However we feel margins are possibly lower than the tile business with raw materials like clay for sanitaryware imported from locations like Britain. The facility is currently operating at 65% capacity and as of December made an EBIT of Rs.35.0m. Management states that many of the expected overheads are absorbed by the existing sales infrastructure and believes they have already captured 25% of the domestic market. Tiles >> Royal Ceramics produces around 11,000-12,000 square meters of tiles. Along with the 3,500-4,000 porcelain capacity of Eheliyagoda another 15% of the Horana production is also glazed porcelain. Both factories are currently operating at close to full capacity. Royal Ceramics is the main local producer of porcelain tiles which are higher value added products and provide higher margins. Porcelain tiles are prepared from a clay mixture that provides a very dense body tile. It is impervious to moisture with low absorption rates of less than 3% to 0.5% depending on the quality of the tile. The company is reputed for the quality of their product and reaps higher margins that its competition because of this. >> Royal Ceramics has benefited from using a direct network of company owned showrooms as their main distribution channel. This has proven to be a key advantage in their competitive positioning since they are better able to control buyer perceptions for their higher quality offerings. The company plans to open around 3 to 4 new showrooms during this year mainly in the recently liberated North and East and it would increase the total number of showrooms to 44.
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 53Expansion Plans>> The capacity at the Horana factory that manufactures ceramic tiles will beexpanded by 3,500 square meters a day, while capacity at the Eheliyagoda factorythat manufactures porcelain tiles will be expanded by 1,500 square meters a day.The investment for these expansions are expected to come to Rs.300m.>> The company had initially delayed planned investments in their 33 acreproperty in Kiriwaththuduwa for a new porcelain tile factory with a capacity of10,000 sq meters as well as subsidiary involved in roofing material manufacturingthat were deferred due to the economic downturn. We expect work on the tilefacility to commence in late FY11. Additionally the planned eventual capacity forthe bathware production facility is 500,000 pieces. A substantial proportion of thiswill be earmarked for export.3QFY11 Performance>> RCL’s 3Q earnings were up 12.7% on the back of a 36% growth in netrevenue. GP margins were down to 46.8% from 48.4% last year while alsosequentially up from 2Q’s GP margin of 46.0%. Net margins were also downslightly to 24.6% for the quarter from last year’s 26.3%.>> Distribution and admin expenses were up 55% and 19% respectively. Financeexpenses were down 50% from the year before. Inventories were down 13.0% fromlast year as well as being 5.6% lower sequentially. Long-term debt has reduced by3.2% YoY while short term debt has reduced by 5.7% YoY.Outlook>> We expect RCL to make Rs.1,488m in earnings for the current FY11 yearwhich would be a growth of 54.5%. We subsequently expect earnings to grow overthe next two years at a 22.9% CAGR on the back of a 21.0% two year revenuegrowth CAGR. Admin and distribution expenses are expected to grow at anaverage of 13.2% and net margins are expected to stay essentially flat over theperiod.>> With more people moving into the middle and upper classes over the nextfew years as well as the planned increases in capacity we feel Royal Ceramics is wellpositioned to maintain its current share of the domestic tile market. Increasingeconomic growth should also see an increase in larger construction projects inaddition to the improving retail demand>> Despite the share outperforming the broader market in the last year wefeel that valuations are still cheap when looking at market earnings multiples andbelieve that the company should trade at a premium to the market after takinginto account the potential for sustained earnings growth . RCL’s forward multiplesstand at 10.1x FY12E earnings (compared to a market earnings multiple of 15xFY12).
Sri Lanka Equities John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd. CORPORATE UPDATE A JKSB Research Publication March 2011 Navin Ratnayake firstname.lastname@example.org Colombo Dockyard PLC Rs 280.00 BUY DOCK Valuation Metrics Mar 08A Mar 09A Mar 10A Mar 11E Mar 12E Mar 13E Reuters Code DOCK.CM Revenue (Rs. mn) 11,155 13,498 14,867 18,584 21,371 24,577 Bloomberg Code DOCK.SL EBITDA (Rs. mn) 1,772 2,560 2,468 3,064 3,501 4,234 Share Price LKR 280.00 EBIT (Rs. mn) 1,563 2,189 2,177 2,786 3,209 3,927 Issued Share Capital (Shares) PAT (Rs. mn) 1,453 2,152 1,938 2,211 2,547 3,118 Voting 68,437,071 EPS 21.24 31.45 28.32 32.31 37.21 45.56 12 mth High/Low (Rs.) 317.00 / 246.00 EPS Growth 31.99 48.07 (9.95) 14.08 15.18 22.43 Market Capitalisation (Rs.mn) 19,162 Average Daily Volume (Shares) 104,691 P/E (x) 13.18 8.90 9.89 8.67 7.52 6.15 Price Performance (%) EV/EBITDA 8.76 6.00 4.94 3.86 1.59 0.65 1 mth 6 mth 12 mth Dividend Yield 1.07 2.50 2.86 2.86 2.86 2.86 ASPI 8.70 18.82 105.54 P/B (x) 4.25 3.10 2.50 2.04 1.67 1.36 DOCK 3.70 11.55 9.68 ROE % 32.2 34.8 25.3 23.5 22.2 22.1DOCK ADJUSTED PRICE / VOLUME GRAPH >> Colombo Dockyard has had Ship repair Price350.00 Volume 16,000,000 a muted FY2010 compared to their >> The company has four drydocks previous year which had a greater with capacities ranging from 9,000 to proportion of ship repair revenue. The 125,000 DWT with two or more of300.00 14,000,000 company continues to have a strong these continuously occupied with repair outlook for shipbuilding having an work while the remaining capacity is 12,000,000 order book worth US$240m to build used for new building. The company250.00 ships with the 78m Greatship Rohini uses a variety of techniques to increase 10,000,000 being the most recent vessel delivered. throughput and reduce time spent in the200.00 Increased shipbuilding activities drydock using semi-tandem building continue to be supported by ship repair techniques, efficient management of 8,000,000 which has declined in significance over inventory and raw materials which free150.00 the last two years. up space in the area and so on. While 6,000,000 originally the company used to carry out100.00 >> The company is the sole hull repairs and steel renewals they are 4,000,000 shipbuilding and repair company in Sri now also focussed on procuring more Lanka, and was initially incorporated to profitable, higher value orders which50.00 2,000,000 deal with repair business from vessels help revenue and profitabiliy. During coming into Colombo Port with the the course of the building process, company being predominantly state fluctuations in variable costs such as raw 0.00 0 owned. The majority stake was bought material prices, forex levels, scheduled May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 by Onomichi Dockyard Co Ltd of labour input, etc, determine where the Japan in the 1980s. The company project’s actual profitability will end up has a well established reputation for once the project is completed. being a timely solutions provider in the repair business while expanding its >> The company is able to cater to a involvement in the new building portion range of vessels from dredgers to tankers of the business. and bulk carriers. The dominance of this portion of the business has ebbed after the company successfully weathered the 2008 global recession. However the improved global economic This document is published by John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt.) Limited for the exclusive use of their clients. All information has been compiled from available documentation and JKSB’s own research material. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this issue, neither JKSB nor its employees can accept responsibility for any decisions made by investors based on information contained herein.
58 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy environment and increased freight rates should see the demand for ship repair increase in comparison to FY2010. Ship building >> Due to its docks’ size, Colombo Dockyards specializes in smaller sized niche vessels and, thus, does not present an intensive threat to major regional shipyards. >> Shipbuilding started in the 1980’s with the company initially specializing in tug boat and speed boat manufacturing mostly for the Sri Lanka Navy. Consequently however the company has developed the capability to build a range of vessels and now regularly delivers two to three vessels every year. >> The bulk of shipbuilding business comes from India with the company’s largest customer being the Greatship Group of Companies with an orderbook of 11 vessels to be delivered in total. Other significant markets include Singapore, the Middle East and the Maldives. >> Colombo Dockyard is currently building two 130 Ton Bollard Pull Anchor Handling Tug Supply Vessels for another Singaporean owner with deliveries scheduled for second and third quarter of 2011. >> In addition to the above two Anchor Handlers, Colombo Dockyard is nearing completion of the fourth 78 m Multipurpose Platform Supply Vessels being built to comply with Indian flag state requirements, which is scheduled to be delivered in the first quarter of 2011. >> Apart from these, there is one 100 Passenger Launch being built for the Road Development Authority to be operated in the Jaffna Peninsula. Because of safety issues, passenger vessels can be higher value orders. >> These new additions to the order book including the two MPSVs from the main contract and this order from the optional contract, will take the company through the year 2011 and 2012. The three MPSVs are scheduled for delivery in first, second and third quarter of 2012. Heavy engineering and offshore engineering >> Dockyards also has a subsidiary, Dockyard General Engineering Services (DGES) which concentrates on heavy engineering, services and maintenance. Its services range from designing to commissioning for petrochemical, infrastructure development, power, and irrigation projects. Incorporated in 2009, the subsidiary has successfully obtained orders in Sri Lanka for projects like steel fabrication for the Upper Kotmale hydropower plant as well providing services in the Maldives for its Petrochemical and Power sector infrastructure development. >> The new Kelani River Yard managed by DGES already has started its operations and is expected to meet Sri Lanka’s requirement of small boats and barge building and will service tourism development and transport infrastructure expansion needs. >> The large number of infrastructure development projects in the North and East coupled with power station installations means that this business has significant potential for growth
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 59 >> Dockyards also has involvements in offshore engineering providing higher- end repair and maintenance services such as repairing offshore drilling units. Thanks to a tieup the company is able to cater to Middle East offshore oil drillers and has also won business from India and the Maldives. Outlook >> With a lower proportion of ship repair revenue seen in the interim results of 2010, about 64% of total revenue for the nine months upto September 2010 has come from new buildings. The company has explained that the higher repair revenue in FY2009 was mostly non-recurring since it tied into the cyclical cohort of vessels coming for regular survey and maintenance. >> We expect Dockyards to make Rs.1,938m in earnings for FY10, and Rs.2,211m in earnings for the current FY11 which would be a growth of 14.1%. We expect earnings to grow at a three year CAGR of 17% upto FY2013 on the back of revenue growth of 18% per annum with net margins improving. >> We feel that the recovery in the global economy as well as booming regional trade will increase Dockyard’s ability to capitalize on higher value offerings in both the repair and newbuilding parts of the business more than offsetting the capacity constraints they have. The government’s focus on ramping up logistics infrastructure could also benefit Dockyard in the longer term in terms of increasing traffic as well as the possibility of obtaining new dockyard space in one of the newly built ports. >> Dockyard’s forward multiples stand at 8.7x for FY11 which reduces to 6.1x in FY13 which we feel is undervalued when comparing the potential of the business. We recommend BUY.Ratios and Valuation Mar 08A Mar 09A Mar 10A Mar 11E Mar 12E Mar 13EGrowth (%)Sales 25.92 21.00 10.14 25.00 15.00 15.00EBIT 17.59 40.01 -0.53 27.98 15.19 22.37Net Profit 31.99 48.07 -9.95 14.08 15.18 22.43Margins (%)EBITDA 15.89 18.96 16.60 16.49 16.38 17.23EBIT 14.01 16.21 14.64 14.99 15.02 15.98Pre-Tax margin 15.44 17.58 14.64 14.99 15.02 15.98Net Margin 13.03 15.94 13.04 11.90 11.92 12.69Valuation Metrics (x)P/E 13.18 8.90 9.89 8.67 7.52 6.15P/B 4.25 3.10 2.50 2.04 1.67 1.36EV/EBITDA 8.76 6.00 4.94 3.86 1.59 0.65EV/EBIT 9.93 7.01 5.60 4.24 1.73 0.70ROE % 32.21 34.79 25.33 23.55 22.22 22.10
Sri Lanka Equities John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd. CORPORATE UPDATE A JKSB Research Publication March 2011 Navin Ratnayake email@example.com Distilleries Company of Sri Lanka PLC Rs 174.50 BUY DIST Valuation Metrics Mar 08A Mar 09A Mar 10A Mar 11E Mar 12E Mar 13E Reuters Code DIST.CM Revenue (Rs. mn) 38,942 21,872 20,048 22,554 25,260 27,787 Bloomberg Code DIST.SL EBITDA (Rs. mn) 7,368 5,965 5,429 6,840 7,789 8,315 Share Price LKR 174.50 EBIT (Rs. mn) 5,967 4,794 3,723 6,562 7,497 8,009 Issued Share Capital (Shares) PAT (Rs. mn) 4,101 3,387 2,136 4,130 4,809 5,227 Voting 300,000,000 EPS 13.67 11.29 7.12 13.77 16.03 17.42 12 mth High/Low (Rs.) 186.00 / 112.50 EPS Growth 13.71 (17.40) (36.95) 93.40 16.42 8.71 Market Capitalisation (Rs.mn) 52,350 P/E (x) 12.77 15.46 24.51 12.67 10.89 10.01 Average Daily Volume (Shares) 399,912 Price Performance (%) EV/EBITDA 7.76 9.60 10.00 7.45 6.11 5.28 1 mth 6 mth 12 mth Dividend Yield 1.00 1.29 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.43 ASPI 8.70 18.82 105.54 P/B (x) 2.78 2.33 2.58 2.16 1.82 1.55 DIST (2.74) 21.25 51.30 ROE % 21.74 15.10 10.51 17.06 16.70 15.47 DIST PRICE / VOLUME GRAPH Volume >> Privatized in 1992, Distilleries a strongly cash generative beverage play however with the core business coming Price is the largest producer of arrack in Sri200.00 12,000,000 to over 80% of revenue and 88% of Lanka. Brand loyalties and economies PBT.180.00 of scale have enabled the company to160.00 10,000,000 retain an estimated 75% market share of the legal liquor market. Despite a low >> The company has the largest market share of Sri Lanka’s hard liquor140.00 per capita GDP, Sri Lanka has one of 8,000,000 segment with 75% of the legitimate the highest per capita consumption of120.00 tax paying liquor segment. Sri Lanka’s spirits in the world but the majority of non-taxpaying segment is estimated100.00 6,000,000 this market comprises of illicit alcohol. at 50-60% of volumes. Sri Lankan80.00 >> The June 2009 reversal of the consumption of hard liquor mainly consists of coconut spirits (Coconut and60.00 4,000,000 SLIC acquisition has now scaled back Processed Arrack) and rectified spirits the conglomeratization of Distilleries. (Extra Special and Special Arrack)40.00 With the subsequent payback of their 2,000,000 and Excise Department projections purchase price of Rs.5.7bn which20.00 indicate that 46m proof litres of hard was delayed by the Government until liquor are manufactured in the country 0.00 0 December 2010, the company although per annum. Volumes in the beverage cash rich appears to have scaled back Feb-10 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 May-10 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 sector are expected to grow steadily on their ambitions. The company is between 7% - 9% per annum with still due approximately Rs. 4bn from margins remaining stable on account the Government as per the Supreme of incremental increases in prices to Court ruling in lieu of profits earned match increases in excise, and increased by SLIC during the period the insurer volumes from sales in supermarkets. was under the control of DIST. Their troubled fixed line telco subsidiary Lanka Bell was put on sale while a 70% >> DIST has two plants to distil spirits from coconut toddy - one in stake in the fund management company Seeduwa which accepts toddy from the NAMAL has already been sold to northern segment of the tapping belt Union Bank and Ennid Capital Pvt Ltd in Sri Lanka, and Beruwala Distillery for Rs. 455mn. The company remains This document is published by John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt.) Limited for the exclusive use of their clients. All information has been compiled from available documentation and JKSB’s own research material. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this issue, neither JKSB nor its employees can accept responsibility for any decisions made by investors based on information contained herein.
64 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy which accepts toddy from the south. The liquor is then matured at warehouses in Seeduwa and Kalutara for periods ranging from three months to seven years. The company has five plants for blending and bottling - two in Kalutara, and the others in Seeduwa, Badulla and Kandy. >> Distilleries’ Periceyl subsidiary also manufactures a range of higher value- added products such as Whiskeys, Brandys, Vodka, Rums and Gin which falls into the ‘Country made foreign liquor’ excise category. Periceyl also distributes wines and other products manufactured by the global Pernod Ricard. However, contribution to the sector turnover is less than 5%. >> The last few years have seen a continuous increase in excise tax with current tax rates coming to Rs.600 to Rs.800 per proof litre. The current regime has also strengthened legislation against alcohol and tobacco leading to an effective ban against advertising of any form. Despite also being a constraint on new products being introduced this however also constitutes a barrier to new entrants. Despite regulatory constraints we feel that over the longer term higher personal income levels will enable marginal volume growth with potential upside from a possible reduction in the illicit market. Plantations >> Earnings from the plantation sector come via the firm’s 43% stake in Balangoda Plantations and a 31% stake in Madulsima Plantations (accounted for as an associate) which are expected to record a significant improvement particularly in Balangoda Plantations despite a wage hike with higher revenue stemming from record high tea prices. Rubber profitability has been greater than that of tea largely leading to the profitability in Balangoda while Madulsima has been operating with losses. Telco >> The floor price established in 2010 and interconnection regime has helped fixed line telco Lanka Bell recover from the Rs.788m loss made in FY10 to a Rs.92m profit for 1H:FY11. However the lack of a mobile licence despite their CDMA network means their business model has clearly suffered especially when taking into account previous earnings of Rs.1.03bn in FY07 and Rs.0.90bn in FY08 and efforts have been made to divest the company which was bought in 2005. In addition to their CDMA network in Sri Lanka, Lanka Bell also owns and operates the sole landing station of Reliance Telecom’s undersea FLAG optical fibre network in Sri Lanka. Insurance >> The company obtained a licence to start an insurance operation making an investment of Rs.500m to start an exclusively general insurance business titled “Continental Insurance”. The company has aggressively targeted motor vehicle insurance segment by introducing a policy that lets a vehicle owner/driver who maintains an accident free period of one year to enjoy an additional year for free.
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 65 Aitken Spence PLC >> Distilleries upped their associate stake in Aitken Spence from 22.5% to 28% by November 2010. Thanks to SPENs’ presence in tourism (they own or manage over 2,000 rooms in multiple countries) and logistics (they will have a 30% stake in the Colombo South port terminal with a capacity of 2.4m TEUs to be completed in 2014) the company has potential to make over Rs.3.5bn in earnings in FY12. Outlook >> Distilleries had sharply higher quarterly earnings for the three months to December 2010 growing by 45% YoY. While net revenues and GP increased in tandem at a healthy 15%, distribution and administrative costs fell sharply by 32% and 26% respectively. The combined savings added Rs.424m to the bottom line which comes to 35% of Distilleries’ quarterly earnings to equity of Rs.1,219m. >> While the company generally has stronger liquor sales in the bottom half of the year, the improvement in earnings is better than expected. Added impetus was provided by the continuing turnaround of Lanka Bell which made earnings of approximately Rs.109m for the quarter, while plantations have also reverted into profits. >> The company’s franchise over the Sri Lankan hard liquor segment is unlikely to be reversed for many years to come. With the cash generated by this business it remains to be seen if Distilleries plans to repeat its strategy of diversification in the future. >> At Rs.174 the stock trades at 10.9x FY12 earnings which is a discount to the market multiple of 15.5x. The loss of SLIC has led to the company regaining focus as the dominant liquor producer in the country and it still remains a cash rich and asset rich entity with the potential for further acquisitions. We recommend BUY.Ratios and Valuation Mar 08A Mar 09A Mar 10A Mar 11E Mar 12E Mar 13EGrowth (%)Sales 31.46 (43.83) (8.34) 12.50 12.00 10.00EBIT 24.10 (19.66) (22.34) 76.26 14.24 6.83Net Profit 13.71 (17.40) (36.95) 93.40 16.42 8.71EPS 13.71 (17.40) (36.95) 93.40 16.42 8.71Margins (%)EBITDA 18.92 27.27 27.08 30.33 30.83 29.92EBIT 15.32 21.92 18.57 29.09 29.68 28.82Pre-Tax margin 15.25 20.04 17.27 30.04 31.25 30.89Net Margin 10.53 15.49 10.65 18.31 19.04 18.81Valuation Metrics (x)P/E 12.77 15.46 24.51 12.67 10.89 10.01P/B 2.78 2.33 2.58 2.16 1.82 1.55EV/EBITDA 7.14 9.14 9.65 7.16 5.90 5.03EV/EBIT 8.82 11.37 14.07 7.47 6.13 5.23ROE % 21.74 15.10 10.51 17.06 16.70 15.47
Sri Lanka Equities John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd.CORPORATE UPDATE A JKSB Research PublicationMarch 2011 Jeewanthi Malagala firstname.lastname@example.orgAitken Spence Hotel Holdings PLCRs 101.00 Long Term BuyAHUN Valuation Metrics Mar 08A Mar 09A Mar 10A Mar 11E Mar 12E Mar 13EReuters Code AHUN.CM Revenue (Rs. mn) 6,091 6,311 7,001 9,436 11,028 12,090Bloomberg Code AHUN.SL EBITDA (Rs. mn) 1,683 1,803 1,899 2,748 3,365 3,854Share Price LKR 101.00 EBIT (Rs. mn) 1,146 1,204 1,157 1,815 2,294 2,698Issued Share Capital (Shares) PAT (Rs. mn) 790 824 775 1,450 1,955 2,393Voting 336,290,010 Earnings to Equity (Rs. mn) 513 593 524 958 1,300 1,70512 mth High/Low (Rs.) - Adjusted 124.29 / 51.68 EPS* 1.48 1.72 1.51 2.81 3.82 5.02Market Capitalisation (Rs.mn) 33,965 EPS Growth (%) (69.67) 16.06 (11.91) 85.40 36.21 31.48Average Daily Volume (Shares) 33,363 P/E (x) 68.23 58.79 66.74 36.00 26.43 20.10Price Performance (%) EV/EBITDA (x) 23.12 21.58 20.49 14.16 11.56 10.10 1 mth 6 mth 12 mth Dividend Yield (%) 0.11 0.06 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21ASPI 8.18 46.55 104.65 P/B (x) 9.04 7.19 6.55 3.97 3.48 2.98AHUN (7.34) 40.01 92.09 ROE % 13.25 12.23 9.81 11.02 13.15 14.84* Adjusted for bonus and rights issues * After preference dividend ADJUSTED PRICE / VOLUME GRAPH >> Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings such as AHUN who have already seen sharp improvements in both room PLC (AHUN) - backed by one of rates as well as occupancies. The most 140 1,200,000 Volume Adjusted Price the top conglomerates in Sri Lanka, recently released results show a fourfold 120 Aitken Spence PLC (SPEN), is a 1,000,000 increase in PAT for the 1-3QFY11 leading hotelier in the country with its over the comparative period in FY10. 100 operations spanning across the Asian as AHUN, having made plans to expand 800,000 well as the Middle Eastern regions. The its footprint in Sri Lanka, undertook a 80 company presently owns or manages rights issue to raise approximately US $ 600,000 27 hotels and resorts under the brands 23 million in FY10. 60 “Heritance”, “Adaaran” and “Aitken 400,000 Spence Hotels & Resorts” in Sri Lanka, 40 the Maldives, India and Oman with a Sri Lanka 20 200,000 total room capacity of 2,300. >> Tourist arrivals in to the country >> AHUN currently owns and rose 22% yoy in FY10 to 501,597 - 0 operates 6 hotels (of which 2 hotels thanks to the end of the war, while growth in FY11 - 10 months up 02-May-06 02-Dec-06 02-Sep-08 02-Mar-05 02-Feb-08 with 64 rooms are currently closed 02-Nov-09 02-Jan-11 02-Jan-04 02-Oct-05 02-Aug-04 02-Jun-10 02-Apr-09 02-Jul-07 for extensive refurbishment) with 565 to January 2011 has been stronger rooms in Sri Lanka along with 2 other with 568,264 tourists, representing properties with collectively 216 rooms a yoy growth of around 45% for the held as associates. The company also comparative period. Sri Lanka achieved manages 3 hotels in the upcountry. the highest ever tourist arrivals in CY10 In the Maldives, the group owns and with a total of 654,476. operates 7 hotels with 591 rooms under its premier foreign brand “Adaaran” >> With the anticipation of greater arrivals to Sri Lanka in the medium while managing a total of 10 hotels in term, AHUN embarked on several new India and Oman. projects in order to increase its capacity. >> Strong rebound in the local Of its existing portfolio of hotels in the tourism industry post war has widened country, Hotel Neptune in Beruwala prospects for large hotel chain operators is currently undergoing extensiveThis document is published by John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt.) Limited for the exclusive use of their clients. All information has been compiled from availabledocumentation and JKSB’s own research material. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this issue, neither JKSBnor its employees can accept responsibility for any decisions made by investors based on information contained herein.
70 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy refurbishment and is expected to reopen as “Heritance Maha-gedera” by mid-2011 as an Ayurveda wellness resort. Neptune Ayurvedha Village which comprises 20 rooms will be amalgamated in to this property which will consist of 64 rooms upon completion. >> Ramada Resorts – a 100 roomed property located on a 5 acre land in Kalutara was acquired by AHUN in FY10 for Rs. 350 million, prior to which the hotel was only managed by AHUN. The hotel is due to be closed from April 2011 to make way for expansion and major refurbishment and is scheduled for reopening by winter 2011. Browns Beach Hotel PLC (BRWN), in which AHUN has an associate stake of 29.46%, will also be closed from April 2011 for an extensive transformation. >> AHUN’s Sri Lankan operations in FY10 saw a remarkable improvement despite the closure of Hotel Neptune and Neptune Ayurveda with a yoy revenue growth of around 15%. Consequent to increased arrivals, the segment returned to profitability with a PBT of Rs. 78.5 million for FY10 including associate earnings, from a loss of Rs. 54 million in FY09 with the 4QFY10 alone generating over Rs. 110 million. AHUN’s local resorts enjoyed an average occupancy of around 55% in 2009 compared to a Sri Lankan average of around 50%. The Sri Lankan segment accounted for around 20% of group turnover in FY10 compared to 17% in FY09 while being a positive contributor to group PBT. >> More recently, AHUN inked an agreement with Six Senses Resorts & Spas to commence construction of the first Six Senses property in the country through a joint venture worth US $ 35 - 40 million. The project will comprise a Six Senses resort and spa as well as beach front residential villas on a 10.5 acre plot, adjoining Heritance Ahungalla on the Southern coast and on a 27 acre island nearby. The hotel is expected to be operational in 2012 with an average room rate of around US $ 400 – 450. The project will comprise a total of 40 one - bedroom villa suites and 14 two – bedroom beach front residential villas in Ahungalla as well as 15 island villas. >> In June 2010, Heritance Kandalama was rated as the best 5 star resort in the island for the 3rd consecutive year. Maldives, India and Oman >> AHUN’s foreign operations took a beating in FY10 with the global economic meltdown that curtailed the flow of tourists in to more expensive destinations such as the Maldives and Oman. Maldives, where AHUN owns and operates over 600 rooms, saw only a 5% growth in arrivals in FY10 largely due to a 20% increase in 4QFY10 alone. Stagnant tourist arrivals coupled with an increase in room supply led to a decline in occupancy to 70% in FY10 compared to 76% in FY09. Average Room Rates (ARRs) too fell consequent to higher competition. >> Despite a slow recovery, the sector remained profitable with its 2 upmarket properties of HuduRan fushi and Vadoo enjoying higher yields. In FY10, AHUN launched Adaaran Prestige Vadoo – its 5th addition to the Adaaran Resorts which was well received by the public. The hotel, having commenced operations in April 2009, gained recognition at the international travel industry’s Oscar as the “Indian Ocean’s Leading Water Villa Group” in November 2009.
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 71>> However, arrivals from April – December 2010 have seen a sharpimprovement with arrivals growing around 21% over the same period in 2009.Although occupancies have improved along with arrivals, room rates continue to beslightly under pressure consequent to increased capacity.>> AHUN’s operations in India and Oman are only in the form of managementcontracts where the group manages 5 hotels in each country. Its latest addition inIndia was the Grand Palace Hotel and Spa, a hill resort in Tamil Nadu. Fallingoccupancies in these upmarket properties have adversely affected its managementfee income which is a function of the topline as well as gross profit.>> Oman, being heavily dependent on regional tourism, too witnessed decliningyields and earnings during FY10 due to a decline in arrivals from UAE. Revenuefrom management fees accounted for 1.22% of group revenue in FY10 compared toaround 2% in FY09.>> The South Asian segment posted a PBT of Rs. 679 million compared to Rs.907 million in FY09 which included a profit of Rs. 219 million from the sale of itsfirst island resort, Adaaran Club Bathala.Earnings Outlook>> With a solid recovery in the local tourism industry along with an increasein AHUN’s room capacity, the company stands to enjoy strong returns in themedium term. AHUN continues to place strategic importance on delivering aniche, high quality product to the high yielding travellers, thus volumes will notbe of great concern. However, the local segment is likely to see the closure ofaround 300 rooms during the off season period in 2011 (April – September) whichshould have only a marginal impact for earnings in FY12E. However, with mostof its properties expected to be operational by the beginning of the winter season,we expect AHUN to recover its lost earnings through higher room rates andoccupancies.>> The group’s parent company SPEN, owns 100 acres of prime beach land inNilaweli where AHUN is expected to commence the development of a resort in themedium term. This includes a 500 room property offering luxury villas, standardrooms and apartments.>> AHUN places greater emphasis on expanding its footprint in Sri Lankagiven high potential exhibited by the industry. The Government aims to attractan ambitious target of 2.5 million tourists by 2016 which would require at leastanother 15,000 graded rooms to cater to this demand. Although local as well asforeign operators have shown interest in expanding the room supply, we expect atime lag of at least 2 years for these projects to become operational, until whichtime, the current properties would enjoy high yields.>> Despite its investments in Sri Lanka, we expect the South Asian segment tobe the largest contributor to group earnings, albeit a reduction in its share due toincreased contribution from the local segment. For forecasting purposes, we havefactored in an average occupancy of 75% in FY12E for the local segment on anARR of US $ 120 while for the Maldivian segment, we have included an occupancyof 85% with an ARR of around US $ 293.
72 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy >> The group’s interest bearing borrowings stood at Rs. 3,815 million in FY10 with approximately 81% of it being dollar denominated carrying low rates of interest. However, by the end of December 2010, its total long term borrowings amounted to Rs. 3,935 million with short term deposits of Rs. 2,786 million from funds raised via the rights issue. >> Given the above, we expect AHUN to post Rs. 1,450 million in PAT for FY11E, growing at a CAGR of around 28% during the next 2 years with the local segment accounting for over 50% of operating profit. Adjusted for the minority holdings, we expect earnings to equity to reach Rs. 958 million for FY11E, growing at a CAGR of 33% during the next 2 years. On a forecasted EPS of Rs. 2.81 and Rs. 3.82 for FY11E and FY12E respectively, the share is trading at a PE multiple of 36x and 26x FY11E and FY12E earnings respectively, at a price of Rs. 100.10. The share is therefore, trading at a slight premium to the sector which we believe is warranted due to its high exposure to the Sri Lankan as well as the Maldivian tourism industries compared to most other standalone properties. We recommend Long Term Buy.Ratios and Valuation Mar 08A Mar 09A Mar 10A Mar 11E Mar 12E Mar 13EGrowth (%)Net Revenue 49.70 3.62 10.93 34.78 16.88 9.62EBIT 74.30 5.04 (3.88) 56.81 26.37 17.61PAT 107.54 4.41 (6.01) 87.17 34.83 22.37EPS 145.72 16.06 (11.91) 85.40 36.21 31.48Margins (%)EBITDA 27.63 28.56 27.12 29.12 30.52 31.87EBIT 18.82 19.08 16.53 19.24 20.80 22.31Pre-Tax margin 13.31 13.39 11.32 15.70 18.04 20.09Net Margin 12.96 13.06 11.07 15.37 17.73 19.79Valuation Metrics (x)P/E 68.23 58.79 66.74 36.00 26.43 20.10P/B 9.04 7.19 6.55 3.97 3.48 2.98EV/EBITDA 23.12 21.58 20.49 14.16 11.56 10.10EV/EBIT 33.94 32.31 33.61 21.44 16.96 14.42ROE and Credit RatiosROE % 13.25 12.23 9.81 11.02 13.15 14.84Net Debt/Equity (%) 77.73 83.90 64.54 4.11 N/A N/ANet Debt/EBITDA (x) 1.74 2.20 1.76 0.13 N/A N/AProfit and Loss Account 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013EFor the year end 31st March Rs. ‘mn Rs. ‘mn Rs. ‘mn Rs. ‘mn Rs. ‘mn Rs. ‘mnRevenue (Net of bed tax) 6,091 6,311 7,001 9,436 11,028 12,090Other Operating Income 45 323 89 102 117 135Operating costs (4,995) (5,427) (5,937) (7,773) (8,932) (9,633)Operating Profit 1,140 1,207 1,153 1,765 2,214 2,592Share of Associate Earnings 6 (3) 5 50 80 106Finance Income 27 10 13 18 21 24Finance Expenses (362) (369) (378) (351) (325) (293)Profit Before Tax 811 845 793 1,482 1,989 2,429Taxation (21) (21) (18) (32) (34) (36)Profit After Tax 790 824 775 1,450 1,955 2,393Minority Interest (277) (232) (251) (492) (655) (688)Profit Attributable to shareholders 513 593 524 958 1,300 1,705
74 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market StrategyCashflow Statement 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013EFor the year ended 31st March (Rs. Mn) Rs. ‘mn Rs. ‘mn Rs. ‘mn Rs. ‘mn Rs. ‘mn Rs. ‘mnProfit before Tax 811 845 793 1,482 1,989 2,429Net Cashflow from Operating Activities 777 1,503 1,485 1,659 2,901 3,460Cashflow from Investing ActivitiesPurchase of Property, Plant & Equipment (731) (2,166) (675) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000)Others (1,470) 140 13 (50) (50) (50)Net cash used in Investing Activities (2,201) (2,026) (662) (1,050) (1,050) (1,050)Cashflow from Financing ActivitiesIssue of shares - - - 2,498 - -Net borrowings 1,417 844 (569) (72) (361) (307)Others (39) (238) (69) (102) (102) (102)Net cash used in Financing Activities 1,377 606 (638) 2,324 (463) (409)Net increase in cash & cash equivalents (47) 83 184 2,932 1,387 2,001Balance at the beginning of the year 205 158 242 426 3,358 4,745Balance at the end of the year 158 242 426 3,358 4,745 6,746 John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd. 130 Glennie Street Colombo 2 Sri Lanka T. 9411 2306 250, 9411 2342 066-7 F. 9411 2342 068 www.jksb.com Company No. PV 89
Sri Lanka Equities John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd. CORPORATE UPDATE A JKSB Research Publication March 2011 Jeewanthi Malagala email@example.com Dialog Axiata PLC Rs 11.80 Long Term Buy DIAL Valuation Metrics Dec 07A Dec 08A Dec 09A Dec 10A Dec 11E Dec 12E Reuters Code DIAL.CM Revenue (Rs. mn) 32,516 36,167 35,779 41,422 43,378 46,303 Bloomberg Code DIAL.SL EBITDA (Rs. mn) 13,431 5,067 7,149 14,425 15,117 16,922 Share Price LKR 11.80 EBIT (Rs. mn) 8,884 (1,591) (4,817) 5,145 5,227 5,990 Issued Share Capital (Shares) PAT (Rs. mn) * 8,908 (3,593) (13,291) 4,754 4,829 5,618 Voting 8,143,778,405 EPS (Rs.) 1.09 (0.44) (1.58) 0.56 0.59 0.69 12 mth High/Low (Rs.) 13.50 / 6.75 EPS Growth (%) (11.96) (140.34) (257.64) 135.57 5.63 16.33 Market Capitalisation (Rs.mn) 96,097 P/E (x) 10.79 (26.74) (7.48) 21.02 19.90 17.11 Average Daily Volume (Shares) 3,989,537 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.65 22.93 16.25 8.05 7.68 6.86 Price Performance (%) Dividend Yield (%) 4.66 N/A N/A 1.69 4.66 4.66 1 mth 6 mth 12 mth ASPI 8.18 46.55 106.12 P/B (x) 1.89 2.24 3.42 3.07 2.92 2.74 DIAL (0.84) 19.19 68.57 ROE % 17.50 (8.37) (45.72) 14.58 14.66 15.99 * Adjusted for rights issues * Adjusted for Preference dividend ADJUSTED DIAL PRICE/VOLUME GRAPH >> Dialog Axiata PLC (DIAL), Industry Overview & Rs. 250,000,000 an 83% owned subsidiary of Axiata Regulatory Developments >> As per the statistics available, Volume27.00 Adjusted Price Investments (Axiata Group Berhad) is25.00 the largest telecommunication provider Sri Lanka’s mobile subscriber base in the island offering fixed line, mobile, witnessed exponential growth over the23.00 200,000,000 broadband and media services through last 10 years with a CAGR of 49%21.00 its fully owned subsidiaries with a to reach 16.3 million by the end of19.00 market capitalization of over US $ 3QCY10 thanks to aggressive customer 150,000,000 880 million. In addition to Axiata’s acquisition strategies by all operators17.00 investment in Sri Lanka, the parent in the industry. This, including the15.00 also operates in several other Asian dual SIM effect represents a mobile13.00 100,000,000 countries including Malaysia, Indonesia, penetration of 79%. However, we Bangladesh, India and Singapore. believe that excluding the dual SIM11.009.00 50,000,000 >> Having survived the most difficult effect, Sri Lanka’s mobile penetration should hover around 50% - 55%. The years of its operations in FY08 and7.00 current regulations allow an individual FY09, DIAL rebounded sharply in5.00 to hold up to a maximum of 5 SIMs per FY10 with significant improvements operator.3.00 0 through its cost rescaling strategies supported by healthy revenue growth >> The local mobile industry 28-Jul-05 27-Oct-05 01-Feb-06 09-May-06 22-Aug-06 23-Nov-06 28-Feb-07 11-Jun-07 06-Sep-07 6-Dec-07 11-Mar-08 16-Jun-08 10-Sep-08 11-Dec-08 18-Mar-09 19-Jun-09 16-Sep-09 14-Dec-09 17-Mar-10 22-Jun-10 17-Sep-10 17-Dec-10 thanks to price stability in the industry comprises 5 operators with the final * Adjusted for rights issues and the economy to record a PAT of entrant being Bharti Airtel in early Rs. 5 billion for FY10. 2009. In anticipation of lower than the >> DIAL currently boasts an active then market prices being offered by the new entrant, the incumbents undertook mobile subscriber base of 6.83 million, aggressive price reductions which saw which accounts for around 41% of the the entire industry in red as volumes total market, thereby making it the failed to grow in tandem with price largest mobile operator in the country. reductions. This document is published by John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt.) Limited for the exclusive use of their clients. All information has been compiled from available documentation and JKSB’s own research material. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this issue, neither JKSB nor its employees can accept responsibility for any decisions made by investors based on information contained herein.
76 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy >> Consequent to the price war, the regulator imposed a price floor of Rs. 2 and Rs. 1.00 per minute on an off net and on net call respectively from July 2010 along with a “calling party pay” regime at a cost of Rs. 0.50 per minute from June 2010. More recently, it was proposed to reduce the off net floor rate to Rs. 1.50 per minute from July 2011. >> With price competition having subdued on the local voice calls, operators have now moved to compete on price of international calls by piggybacking on other networks owned and operated by their parent company. With increasing volumes on this segment, the regulator has introduced a levy of Rs. 2 per minute on all outgoing international calls. >> Although the regulator has shown interest on implementing Mobile Number Portability (MNP) in Sri Lanka, it is expected to take at least 2 years prior to implementation. >> Despite such high penetration levels in Sri Lanka, there exists room for growth in Minutes of Use (MoU) which currently hovers around 140 to 150 minutes per user per month. This, compared to our regional peers, ranks well below that of countries such as India where the MoUs average over 200 minutes. Operational Review of DIAL Mobile 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Sep-10 Mobile Subs 931,403 1,393,403 2,211,158 3,361,775 5,412,496 7,983,489 11,082,071 14,095,346 16,305,417 Growth in Mobile 50% 59% 52% 61% 48% 39% 27% 16% Dialog Market share 52% 60% 61% 63% 57% 53% 50% 45% 41% Dialogs share of incremental subs. 75% 65% 66% 48% 45% 40% 29% 16% Total Line Population (Mobile & Fixed) 1,814,511 2,332,416 3,202,397 4,605,769 7,296,572 10,725,548 14,528,482 17,531,304 19,854,338 Growth in Line 29% 37% 44% 58% 47% 35% 21% 13% Fixed Line Penetration 5% 5% 5% 6% 9% 14% 17% 17% 17% Mobile Penetration 5% 7% 11% 17% 27% 40% 55% 69% 79% Line Penetration 10% 12% 16% 23% 37% 53% 72% 86% 96%Source : TRC & Company data >> DIAL remains the market leader in the local mobile industry with an active subscriber base of 6.83 million accounting for 41% of the total market and 55% of revenue share. The company, historically, enjoyed above industry growth in subscribers thanks to its island wide coverage which covers approximately 76% in land mass and 95% of population, but increased competition over the years has slowed down its growth. DIAL currently operates 1,942 2G base stations along with 932 3G base stations. >> With increasing competition, DIAL saw its market share steadily declining from a high of 63% in 2005 to its current level – a trend which is likely to continue until such time the regulator further restricts the number of SIMs an individual may own. Of its subscriber base, approximately 89% are pre paid who contribute towards around 40% of company turnover. >> The company was the first mobile provider to begin operations in the war torn areas of North and East – home to around 2.5 million people with high propensities to consume, where it has secured at least 80% of market share.
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 77 >> In FY09, having partially recovered from double digit inflation experienced in FY08, DIAL saw its blended MoUs grow by around 29% over FY08 to 129 minutes in FY09 at the expense of a 29% reduction in blended ARPU to Rs. 324. Performance in FY10 has been even more encouraging with a blended MoU growth of 12% to 145 minutes while blended ARPUs dropped only by 5%, indicating improving elasticity levels.MoUs Minutes of Use vs. Revenue per Minute Rs. >> The existence of a high tax environment has historically been a constraint160 7.00 to MoU growth with as much as 31% been charged out as effective taxes140 6.00 from the subscriber. From January 2011, the regulator implemented a new120100 5.00 Telecommunication levy of 20% (effective tax of 22.4%) replacing all other taxes,80 4.00 which we believe would boost MoU in addition to improving economic conditions60 3.00 in the country. 2.004020 1.00 >> DIAL’s global business including the international voice termination segment - - has been a significant contributor to company revenue with increased tourist arrivals 1QFY08 2QFY08 3QFY08 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 and economic activity. The segment witnessed a 27% growth in revenue on the Blended MoUs Revenue per min back of increased traffic to account for around 25% of company revenue in FY10 compared to 23% in FY09. >> With voice telephony exhibiting limited growth potential, the company has moved its focus towards mobile broadband which has seen significant growth over the last 2 years. Sri Lanka’s internet and broadband penetration stood at less than 2% in FY10 indicating heavy under penetration. The mobile broadband subscriber base at DIAL reached 118,000 by the end of 2010. Mobile broadband along with other value added services account for about 10% of company turnover. >> In FY09, as a part of its cost rescaling strategy, the company expensed a one off charge of Rs. 6 billion of its current GSM network to facilitate the move to a 100% NGN infrastructure while a further Rs. 2,069 million was written off as a non recurring charge to align capital inventory with international best practices. The company also implemented a two phase VRS with a total provisioning of Rs. 881 million. Through the above, the company saved approximately Rs. 2 billion in FY09 over FY08 while a further Rs. 805 million was saved in FY10. Pay TV >> Since inception, the Pay TV business struggled heavily in attracting sufficient number of subscribers to breakeven partly due to the adverse economic conditions experienced coupled with the social attitudes with regard to Pay TV. For a short while, the company offered cheaper packages in order to attract more subscribers but later on revised its packages upwards in a bid to increase the ARPU levels in order to breakeven. The subscriber based touched a high of 160,000 by the end of 1QFY10 but the numbers declined to 152,000 by 3QFY10 due to an aggressive credit control policy imposed on customers who have defaulted. However, by the end of FY10, the subscriber base increased to 168,291. >> Thanks to a revision of prices on its packages, the unit has seen a steady increase in its ARPU which stood below Rs. 700 in 2009 to around Rs. 826 by 2010. Of the company’s revenue, around 78% is accounted for by the monthly subscription fees while the remainder being the income from the sale of the unit as well as other income. The Pay TV segment was initially expected to breakeven with around 200,000 subscribers but the unit has managed to become EBITDA positive
78 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy in 2010 with an EBITDA of Rs. 343 million for FY10 improving 243% yoy thanks to a 23% growth in revenue. NPAT too improved 80% yoy to a cumulative loss of Rs. 154 million with the 4QFY10 recording a profit of Rs. 74 million due to a one off reversal. CDMA & Broadband >> CDMA and broadband services at DIAL are provided through its fully owned subsidiary, Dialog Broadband Networks (Pvt) Ltd. (DBN) while also managing the group’s telecommunication infrastructure along with the mobile arm. The fixed line industry in Sri Lanka has reached its saturating point with a subscriber base of around 3.44 million. However, the industry may witness marginal growth with increased subscription for ADSL services offered by the incumbent, Sri Lanka Telecom PLC (SLTL). >> DIAL’s CDMA subscriber base stood at 189,000 by the end of FY10 growing marginally by 6.8% over 2009. The broadband and voice bundled product offered by the subsidiary has seen significant growth in 2010 compared to broadband only subscribers. >> Over the years, the unit has remained dilutive to group performance both at EBITDA and PAT level due to its business model but increased focus on cost rescaling strategies helped DBN in becoming EBITDA positive since April 2010 while also seeing a reduction in its loss margins. The unit has undertaken accelerated depreciation of its network which should reduce the depreciation strain on DBN beyond FY12. The WiMAX network will be fully depreciated in FY11 while the CDMA network will be fully depreciated by FY12. Earnings Outlook & Valuations >> The intervention by the regulator in the form of a price floor has virtually ended severe price competition among operators. With stability in prices and increase in affordability due to slowing down inflation and reduction of taxes, we expect the mobile segment to enjoy a growth in MoUs and thereby revenue, driven mainly by the prepaid segment. We have conservatively factored in a CAGR of 5% in revenue for the pre and postpaid segments. Further, DIAL has been a net receiver with the imposition of the interconnection charge but we expect the gap to narrow in the medium term given the current policy of issuing SIMs. >> Increased computer literacy and need for information sharing among the society coupled with declining prices of PCs has increased demand for broadband services in the country. With broadband penetration being at low levels compared to most other developing nations, we expect DIAL’s mobile broadband unit to be a key revenue generator in the medium term. >> Global revenue driven by increased international traffic will also be a significant contributor to DIAL’s revenue given the increase in tourist arrivals in the country along with a sharp reduction in IDD rates. With increased volumes, the regulator has placed a levy of Rs. 2 per minute on international calls which has been passed on to consumers in the case of DIAL. >> On the media unit, we expect the segment to become PAT positive within the 1HFY11E given that the company achieves stronger subscriber growth.
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 79 However, the CDMA and broadband segment is likely to remain dilutive to group PAT due to its accelerated depreciation policy although it will continue to be EBITDA positive with improved performance. >> In terms of capex, the group intends to allocate a sum equivalent to 15% - 20% of group revenue. DIAL, as an approved investment under the Board of Investment in Sri Lanka was granted a 15 year tax holiday which commenced from 1998 and due to expire in 2012. Post its expiry, the company has the option of selecting a corporate tax of 28% or a 2% tax on its topline. >> The group had obtained an advance of US $ 47.5 million and Rs. 3,724 million from its parent company along with another term loan to the amount of US $ 135 million from OCBC which is at a preferential rate through a corporate guarantee from the parent company. During 4QFY10, DIAL repaid US $ 10 million of the advance. However, DIAL is not under obligation to immediately repay the advance but has opted to do so in order to remove the insecurity of a possible dilution of minority holdings. >> DIAL, having recovered from the biggest loss ever of Rs. 12.2 billion, posted a PAT of Rs. 5 billion for FY10 while at company level (the mobile arm) recorded a PAT of Rs. 6,552 million. PAT at group level included a forex gain of Rs. 680 million. The group recorded an EBITDA margin of around 36% during FY10 while at company level, EBITDA margin was around 38%. >> With improved performance from the subsidiaries, we expect DIAL to post Rs. 4,829 million in earnings after preference dividends for FY11E while at company level, we expect a PAT of Rs. 6,775 million. Excluding the forex gain of Rs. 680 million in FY10, this represents a yoy growth of 18.5% in group PAT. The Preference shares will be fully repaid by 1HFY12E. Given its current cost structure we anticipate an EBITDA margin of around 35% - 37% to be sustained in next couple of years. >> At a price of Rs. 11.80, the counter is trading at a PE multiple of 20 times FY11E earnings and 17 times FY12E earnings. We recommend Long Term Buy.Ratios and Valuation Dec 07A Dec 08A Dec 09A Dec 10A Dec 11E Dec 12EGrowth (%)Sales 26.62 11.23 (1.07) 15.77 4.72 6.74EBIT (16.22) (117.91) (202.75) 206.81 1.60 14.60Net Profit (11.35) (132.10) (324.03) 141.34 (1.96) 14.85EPS (11.96) (140.34) (257.64) 135.57 5.63 16.33Margins (%)EBITDA 41.30 14.01 19.98 34.82 34.85 36.55EBIT 27.32 (4.40) (13.46) 12.42 12.05 12.94Pre-Tax margin 27.72 (6.56) (32.92) 13.37 12.53 13.49Net Margin 27.58 (7.96) (34.12) 12.18 11.41 12.27Valuation Metrics (x)P/E 10.79 N/A N/A 21.02 19.90 17.11P/B 1.89 2.24 3.42 3.07 2.92 2.74EV/EBITDA 8.65 22.93 16.25 8.05 7.68 6.86EV/EBIT 13.08 (73.02) (24.12) 22.58 22.22 19.39ROE and Credit RatiosROE % 17.50 N/A N/A 14.58 14.66 15.99Net Debt/Equity (%) 6.44 62.41 98.91 64.02 59.12 39.96Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.24 5.29 3.89 1.39 1.29 0.83
Sri Lanka Equities John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd.CORPORATE UPDATE A JKSB Research PublicationMarch 2011 Yolan Seimon firstname.lastname@example.orgAitken Spence PLCRs 172.00 Long Term BuySPEN Valuation Metrics Mar 08A Mar 09A Mar 10A Mar 11E Mar 12EReuters Code SPEN.CM Revenue (Rs. mn) 27,194 29,000 24,349 27,262 31,777Bloomberg Code SPEN.SL EBITDA (Rs. mn) 4,857 5,374 5,499 5,693 6,636Share Price LKR 172.00 EBIT (Rs. mn) 3,744 4,103 4,051 4,173 5,040Issued Share Capital (Shares) PAT (Rs. mn) 1,841 2,040 2,077 2,406 3,366Voting 405,996,045 EPS 4.53 5.03 5.12 5.93 8.2912 mth High/Low (Rs.) 220.00 / 58.00 EPS Growth 20.3% 10.8% 1.8% 15.9% 39.9%Market Capitalisation (Rs.mn) 69,831 P/E (x) 37.9 34.2 33.6 29.0 20.7Average Daily Volume (Shares) 574,564 EV/EBITDA 16.5 14.9 14.5 14.0 12.1Price Performance (%) Dividend Yield 0.27% 0.37% 0.37% 0.37% 0.37% 1 mth 6 mth 12 mth NAV/Share 29.3 42.1 46.7 46.7 54.0ASPI 8.70 18.82 105.54 P/B (x) 5.9 4.1 3.7 3.7 3.2SPEN (8.02) (16.91) 107.23 ROE % 15.5% 11.9% 11.0% 12.7% 15.3%* Adjusted for splits, bonus and rights issues SPEN ADJUSTED PRICE - VOLUME GRAPH Rs. Volume >> Aitken Spence has continued high once completed in CY14. The two terminals at the Colombo Port have 250 Volume 20,000,000 to expand its presence in the leisure Price Rs. a current capacity of 4.1mn TEU’s. 18,000,000 sector in the region while upgrading Under the terms of the agreement with its properties in Sri Lanka and is now 200 16,000,000 authorities no new terminal would be well positioned to take advantage of operated at the Colombo port for a 14,000,000 the anticipated renaissance in the Sri period of 7 years after completion. We 150 12,000,000 Lankan tourism sector following the expect the company to raise to capital end to the war. 10,000,000 from the market to fund part of this 100 8,000,000 >> In addition a consortium made up investment. 6,000,000 of Aitken Spence and China Merchants Holdings that bid for the new container 50 4,000,000 terminal at the Colombo Port have been Leisure 2,000,000 granted approval to proceed to design >> The leisure sector experienced and build a 2.4mn TEU facility. Aitken a significant boost in arrivals which - 0 Spence will have a 30% stake in the were up 46% from a year ago. With 23-Feb-07 07-Feb-11 12-Dec-05 07-Dec-09 02-May-06 30-May-08 03-Jan-05 18-Oct-06 17-Jan-08 28-Oct-08 02-Nov-10 26-Jul-10 29-Apr-05 27-Apr-09 05-Apr-10 29-Aug-05 21-Aug-07 18-Aug-09 entity while China Merchant Holdings the opportunities peace in Sri Lanka will have a 55% stake and the Sri Lanka has presented to the group and an* Adjusted for splits, bonus and rights issues Ports Authority a 15% stake. increasing trend of tourists from India, China and the Middle East, the leisure >> Construction on the above US$ sector is well positioned to spearhead 500mn project is expected to commence earnings growth over the medium term. in 2Q CY11 and is expected to be funded on a 70:30 debt equity mix. Details on royalty payments have Leisure - Sri Lanka not been made public and overall >> Low occupancy levels and drop returns on the project are still unclear, down room rates which were a common however given the anticipated levels of feature in the tourism industry over transshipment and domestic throughput the last 3 decades has reversed with the expected at the Colombo Port, it is industry experiencing unprecedented likely that capacity utilisation would be growth.This document is published by John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt.) Limited for the exclusive use of their clients. All information has been compiled from availabledocumentation and JKSB’s own research material. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this issue, neither JKSBnor its employees can accept responsibility for any decisions made by investors based on information contained herein.
84 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy >> Aitken Spence operates 7 resort hotels in the country with a total of 781 rooms, a bulk of which are upper range rooms. This includes the newly acquired 100 room Ramada Resort which was previously under company management. The company boasts some of the best resort properties in the country with premier Sri Lankan properties in the southern coast, the cultural triangle and the hill country being re-furbished and re-branded under the (Heritance) brand. The revival of the North and East also offers the company to capitalize on the group’s prime block of beach front land in Nilaveli, Trincomalee. >> The end of the war and the dawn of peace in the country has resulted in resurgence in tourist arrivals in FY10 with occupancy levels averaging out at 56% in FY10 as a result of a poor 1H, increasing to a conservative 65% in FY11. ARR’s are forecast of US$96 in FY11 and US$ 114 in FY12, from US$81 in FY10. Sri Lankan resort operations are expected to post an EBIT of Rs. 1,160mn in FY11 and Rs. 1,897 in FY12 as a result of an expected increase in occupancy and an increase in room rates. >> The likely requirement of additional hotel rooms in the country over the next 5 years and beyond should see the group investing in developing further properties like the 100 acre prime beach front land in Nilaveli, Trincomalee, in addition to refurbishments of the Neptune property. In addition, the company plans to build a 4 start city Hotel in Jaffna in the north of the country as well as develop the 10.8 acres of freehold land adjacent to Heritance Ahungalla in the South. Leisure - Maldives >> The Group’s operations in the Maldives have consistently propped up the company’s tourism sector in the midst of a volatile Sri Lankan market. The groups 7 Maldivian properties were repositioned under the “Adaaran” brand in 2008 with the group operating 591 rooms with a total bed strength of approximately 1,600 in the archipelago. The group has successfully pioneered the resort within a resort concept in the country catering to a cross section of travelers in the 4 star, wellness, and 5 star boutique holiday maker categories. The addition of the high end 5 star boutique holiday resorts in particular have increased yields. >> The group divested its first island resort Adaaran Club Bathala in the last financial year but also saw the completion of Adaaran Prestige Vadoo consisting of 50 high end water villas as well as 37 water bungalows on the HudhuRan Fushi Island under Adaaran Prestige Ocean Villas. In addition 16 water bungalows were added to Adaaran Club Rannalhi. >> Average occupancy has consistently been in excess of 80% with ARRs’ conservatively expected to remain flat for FY12. Average blended room rates for the group’s Maldivian operations are estimated at approximately US$ 257 compared to a current average of US$ 81 in Sri Lanka. Maldives is at present displaying a degree of excess capacity which has forced lower room rates. Occupancy levels in the Maldives were 69.5% in 2010 despite a 20.7% increase in arrivals. Leisure - Management of Indian and Oman hotel properties >> The company has signed an agreement to manage 5 hotels of the Oman Hotels and Tourism Company including a luxury desert camp added in 2008 two
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 85hours away from the capital Muscat with 30 luxury Bedouin style tents. The other 4hotels also include the 4 star 143 room Al Falaj hotel and the 3 star 105 room RuwiHotel located in Muscat. The two other resorts include the 54 room 3 star Al WadiHotel located 210km from Muscat and the 108 room Sur Plaza Hotel located inthe city of Sur along the country’s northern coast and in close proximity to TurtleBeach.>> Tourist arrivals in Oman are expected to rise from 1.8mn in 2007 to 6mn by2012 with the World Travel and Tourism council estimating that Oman’s tourismsector would grow to US$ 8bn in 2018 from US$ 2.5bn in 2008.>> Aitken Spence currently has 5 hotels under management in India, theseinclude, ‘Barefoot at Havelock’ a resort in the Andaman Islands, the 78 roomPoovar Island resort in Kerala which also houses a 20 Deluxe Cottage AyurvedaVillage, and a 60 room 4 star property named Atithi in the southern coast offChennai.>> The terms of the management agreements for the properties managed inIndia and Oman have not been disclosed by the company and as such, potentialcontribution to earnings is difficult to ascertain. However earnings contributionsfrom managed properties are not significant to the group, at present.Strategic Investments>> SPEN owns and operates 3 thermal power plants, the largest of which, the100MW Ace Power Embilipitiya power plant which was built in partnership withCaterpillar and commenced commercial operations in early FY06. The companyhas recently discontinued an external management agreement of the plant andis now internally managed resulting in savings on operation and maintenance.The Power Purchase Agreement with the state utility CEB is expected to expirein FY16. The company also operates two 20MW Power Plants in Matara andHorana with a 10 year Power Purchase Agreement expected to expire in April andDecember 2012 respectively.>> The state utility are the sole purchasers of power and the purchase agreementsare for the generation and sale of energy for 10 years, which is guaranteed by anImplementation Agreement with the Government of Sri Lanka. The agreementsallow for the full pass-through of fuel costs and are structured so that all threeprojects receive separately calculated payments for the capacity and the energyprovided. The capacity payment formula accounts for the fixed operating costs andinterest costs and is paid irrespective of the amount of energy purchased.>> It is uncertain as to what the terms will be should these PPA’s be renewedsince several large state owned plants currently under construction such as the 150MW Hydro Upper Kotmale Power Plant and the 300 MW Norochcholai CoalPower Plant which are expected to be completed by end 2011. The country hadan installed capacity of 2,684MW as of 2009 with 23.28% being attributed toPrivate Power Producers while Private Power Producers accounted from 44.85%of total gross generation in 2008. Currently 84% of the population has access tothe national grid while demand for power grows at an estimated 8% per year,notwithstanding the likely accelerated demand over the next few years in the Northand East and across the country in general.
86 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy >> The company is also evaluating potential to manage or invest in power generation in Pakistan and Bangladesh. Projects managed in South Africa which generated modest revenue for the company have been completed with more such outsourced projects being sourced in the continent. >> The strategic investments sector which also has small investments in Garments and a Printing and Packing business is expected to collectively contribute an EBIT of Rs. 1.761bn in FY11 increasing to Rs. 2.093bn in FY12. Contribution from this sector beyond 2012 will depend on terms negotiated for new PPAs going forward. Other Businesses >> The groups cargo and logistics sector include freight forwarding, courier, integrated logistics and maritime transport businesses and are expected to contribute an EBIT of Rs. 555mn in FY11. >> SPEN also owns 50% of MMBL Money Transfer which gives the company exposure to the growing inward remittance market, with Sri Lankan expatriate workers accounting for US$ 2.6bn in 2008. The MMBL network has over 500 subagents and has a tie up with Western Union. Other businesses in the service sector include the operation and maintenance of its power plants, the OTIS Elevator Agency, Insurance Broking particularly related to and Marine Insurance as well as management of its commercial property. Contributions from these businesses are relatively small and would amount to an EBIT contribution of Rs. 376mn in FY11. Outlook and Valuations >> The group has not raised capital from the public since FY 2000, with capital constraints limiting potential for further diversification or aggressive expansion in existing lines of business. However despite its capital constraints Aitken Spence has diversified its exposure in the leisure sector gaining a soft foot print in the potentially lucrative Indian and Middle Eastern markets while well positioned to benefit from a renaissance in the tourism sector expected in Sri Lanka following the end of the hostilities. >> SPEN is one of just two large leisure groups in the island with the resources, expertise and land bank in key tourist hotspots; giving it the ability to consistently build fresh room capacity over the next 10 years. >> A recent share split has removed the liquidity risk discount that clouded the counters performance for many years. With earnings expectations of Rs. 2.41bn and Rs. 3.37bn in FY11 and FY 12 the counter trades at a P/E of 29.02x and 20.75x respectively. With the company’s stake in the new Colombo Port terminal to be constructed and begin operation in FY14 and the pool of resort hotels and its land bank in key tourist hot spots offering healthy earnings prospects in the medium to long term, we recommend Long Term Buy.
88 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market StrategyBALANCE SHEET 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012EAS AT 31ST MARCH Rs. mn Rs. mn Rs. mn Rs. mn Rs. mnASSETSNon Current AssetsProperty Palnt and Equipment 16,982 22,636 23,328 23,063 22,767Leasehold property 1,357 1,505 1,468 1,468 1,468Intangible Assets 123 109 154 139 125Investment Property 29 29 29 29 29Investment In Associates 764 753 767 814 879Long Term Investments 264 405 484 484 484Deferred Tax assets 39 74 57 84 89 19,558 25,510 26,288 26,081 25,841Current AssetsInventories 1,305 1,284 1,394 1,363 2,860Trade and Other Receivables 6,085 5,834 5,344 4,836 5,148Amounts due from associates 116 161 125 125 105Current Investments 5 5 5Deposits and Pre-payments 482 533 490 409 636Current Tax receivable 18 57 158Short term deposits 2,597 2,020 2,752 1,636 2,224Cash and cash equivalents 859 828 825 880 945 11,465 10,721 11,093 9,249 11,918Assets classified as held for sale 162 149 162 - -Total Assets 31,185 36,381 37,543 35,330 37,759EQUITY AND LIABLITIESEquity Attributable to ShareholdersStated Capital 2,135 2,135 2,135 2,135 2,135Reserves 3,505 7,228 9,317 7,228 7,228Retained Earnings 6,264 7,715 7,497 9,615 12,577 11,904 17,078 18,950 18,977 21,940Minority Interest 3,882 4,553 4,566 4,566 4,566Total Equity 15,786 21,631 23,516 23,544 26,506Non Current LiabilitiesInterest bearing liabliities 6,508 6,241 5,157 5,104 4,864Deferred Tax Liabilities 187 198 223 225 243Employee benefits 209 238 295 328 361 6,904 6,677 5,675 5,657 5,468Current LiablitiesTrade and Other Payabels 3,782 3,909 4,191 2,726 2,542Interest Bearing liabilities repayable within one year 2,106 1,866 1,541 1,276 1,216Amounts due to associates 4 1 3 - -Current tax payable 93 135 147 - -Interim dividend declared 81 - - - -Short term bank borrowings 2,429 2,162 2,470 2,127 2,027 8,496 8,072 8,352 6,129 5,785Total Liabilities 15,399 14,749 14,027 11,786 11,253Total Equity and Liabilities 31,185 36,381 37,543 35,330 37,759
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 89CASHFLOW STATEMENT 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012EFOR THE YEAR ENDED 31ST MARCH Rs. mn Rs. mn Rs. mn Rs. mn Rs. mnNet cash generated from / (used in) operating activities 1,627 3,916 4,731 4,667 2,431Cash Flow from Investing ActivitiesInvestments made during the year (104) (141) (102) - -Purchase of property plant and equipment (1,654) (3,799) (459) (1,200) (1,300)Disposal of Subsidiaries (20)Purchase of leasehold rights (1,402) (64) (51) - -Proceeds from sale of property plant and equipment 307 362 (1,938) - -Proceeds from sale of investments 48 247 15 - -Proceeds on retirement of assets held for sale - 13 343 162 -Dividends by subsidiary companies to outside shareholders (421) (524) (929) (929) (929)Dividends received from associate companies 19 3 7 10 10Net cash used in investing activities (3,208) (3,923) (3,114) (1,957) (2,219)Cash flow from financing activitiesInterest received from deposits 417 419 289 204 286Proceeds from interest bearing liabilities 2,348 1,273 616 700 700Repayments of interest bearing liabilities (1,935) (2,026) (1,979) (1,100) (1,100)Issue of shares by subsidiaries - 25 - - -Dividends Paid (176) (189) (257) (289) (404)Net cash used from / (used in) financing activities 654 (498) (1,330) (484) (518)Net inc./(dec.) in cash & cash equivalents at beginning (927) (505) 287 2,226 (306)Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the period 2,119 1,325 820 1,106 3,332Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 1,192 820 1,106 3,332 3,026 John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd. 130 Glennie Street Colombo 2 Sri Lanka T. 9411 2306 250, 9411 2342 066-7 F. 9411 2342 068 www.jksb.com Company No. PV 89
Sri Lanka Equities John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd.CORPORATE UPDATE A JKSB Research PublicationMarch 2011 Yolan Seimon email@example.comJohn Keells Holdings PLCRs 296.00JKH Valuation Metrics Mar 07A Mar 08A Mar 09A Mar 10A Mar 11E Mar 12E Reuters Code JKH.CM Revenue (Rs. mn) 32,818 41,641 40,972 48,663 53,903 60,899 Bloomberg Code JKH.SL EBITDA (Rs. mn) 7,344 9,791 10,023 10,150 14,702 16,153 Share Price LKR 296.00 EBIT (Rs. mn) 6,087 8,169 7,985 7,876 12,148 13,277 Issued Share Capital (Shares) * PAT (Rs. mn) 3,532 5,111 4,732 5,201 8,966 10,042 Voting (In Millions) 623.4 EPS 5.7 8.2 7.6 8.3 14.39 16.1 12mth High / Low (Rs.) 358 / 137 EPS Growth 15.8% 44.7% -7.4% 9.9% 72.4% 12.0% Average Daily Volume (Shares) 1,156,436 Market Capitalisation Rs. Mn 184,533 P/E (x) 52.2 36.1 39.0 35.5 20.6 18.4 Price Performance (%) EV/EBITDA 23.8 17.8 17.4 17.2 11.9 10.8 1 mth 6 mth 12 mth * Net earnings excluding exceptional items - FY10 - Rs. 4,450mnASPI 8.70 18.82 105.54 * Net earnings excluding exceptional items - FY11 - Rs. 7,054mnJKH 1.37 1.72 74.63* Adjusted for splits, bonus and rights issues Volume JKH ADJUSTED PRICE / VOLUME GRAPH Price >> JKH remains the largest listed is being reconstructed under the groups “Chaaya” brand. 40,000,000 Volume 400 company on the Colombo Stock 35,000,000 Price 350 Exchange with a market capitalization of US$ 1.66bn and technically a 100% >> The company also has in its possession upto 40% of the city 5-star free float. Whilst organically growing 30,000,000 300 room capacity through the 501-room its business interests in a diverse range Cinnamon Grand and the 340 room of sectors offering a proxy to the post 25,000,000 250 Cinnamon Lakeside property, which war growth prospects of the country; are also at present the most recently 20,000,000 200 the company with a history of successful refurbished properties in the city. Fresh inorganic growth still retains strong 15,000,000 150 city 5-Star room supply is not expected cash reserves and a pipeline of projects to come on stream for at least another and assets set for development including 10,000,000 100 2.5 years. 25.61 and 10.9 acres of freehold and 5,000,000 50 leasehold land respectively in Colombo. >> The group now has 3 properties 0 0 in the Maldives including the recently refurbished Chaaya Lagoon, after Leisure 4-Apr-05 10-Jul-05 15-Oct-05 20-Jan-06 27-Apr-06 2-Aug-06 7-Nov-06 12-Feb-07 20-May-07 25-Aug-07 30-Nov-07 6-Mar-08 11-Jun-08 16-Sep-08 22-Dec-08 29-Mar-09 4-Jul-09 9-Oct-09 14-Jan-10 21-Apr-10 27-Jul-10 1-Nov-10 6-Feb-11 acquiring the head lease of Dhonveli The group’s leisure business has a Island (Chaaya Island) for a period of* Adjusted for splits, bonus and rights issues portfolio of 796 resort rooms located 18 years as consideration for divesting in key tourist hot spots across the the headlease of the loss making island accounting for nearly 9% of the Cinnamon Island, in Alidhoo. Maldives country’s graded room capacity. The attracted 791,917 tourists in 2010, group also owns land in prime tourist a 20.7% increase compared to 2009 locations including 10 acres in the with a year round occupancy of 69.5% central hill capital of Kandy, 44.37acres compared to 70.2% in the previous of freehold land in the east coast city of year with tourists from China and the Trincomalee, 22.15 acres of freehold UK accounting for nearly 30% of total land South of the country in Weerawila arrivals. ARRs however did come under as well as the location of the Tsunami pressure in a bid to lure visitors given destroyed Beach Hotel Bayroo which the protracted recovery in the west.This document is published by John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt.) Limited for the exclusive use of their clients. All information has been compiled from availabledocumentation and JKSB’s own research material. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this issue, neither JKSBnor its employees can accept responsibility for any decisions made by investors based on information contained herein.
92 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy >> Tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka increased by 46% in 2010 with the peak winter season in November and December recording occupancies of 86.1% and 83% respectively. Much of the earnings growth from the leisure sector at JKH will stem from its Sri Lankan operations. The country offers compelling potential as a prime diverse tourist destination with significant upside from current arrivals of just 654,476 tourists that visited the island last year at an average ARR of US$50 – 60 in 2010. An ambitious target of the authorities to grow tourist arrivals to 2.5mn in five years is limited only by the pace at which adequate room, skilled staff and tourist related infrastructure capacity can be added to cater to the steep rise in demand. In the short term, leisure groups like JKH would benefit significantly from the lack of adequate room supply. Furthermore the imposition of a minimum room rate of US$ 125/- for 5- star properties from 1st April 2011 from its current US$ 100/- will further boost earnings in the medium term. >> While the more favourable operating environment will attract fresh competition locally as well as from international leisure groups, large local leisure groups like JKH have the distinct advantage of already having a significant portfolio of 841 city and 796 resort rooms. With properties in prime locations in addition to a large land bank of prime tourist locations the group can incrementally add capacity over the years, outpacing new entrants in securing increased occupancy and commanding higher rates in the medium term. >> The 154 room Coral Gardens property is currently under extensive refurbishment at a cost of Rs. 1.1bn and is expected to open in mid to late FY12 in addition to the 190 room ‘Chaaya Bey’ expected to be completed by FY13 at a cost of Rs. 2.3bn. Further addition to room capacity in the city and in new resort locations are likely going forward given the land the group already owns in key locations. Property Development >> The group recently launched a 475 unit apartment complex that would begin construction in mid-2011, having impressively acquired bookings for over 70% of the units within the first few weeks of launch, given the fact that the property market still remains subdued with several competing large scale apartment complexes still yet to sellout units despite completion of construction. The construction of the 164 residential apartment complex, Emperor at the Asian Hotels property complex is expected to be completed in the current year having sold all units off plan. The Asian Hotel property has space for a fourth high rise as well as further potential for development at the 7.2acre leased property at Cinnamon Lakeside. In addition JKH has 25.61 and 10.69 acres of prime freehold and lease hold land including 8 cleared acres bordering the Beira Lake.TEU per month SAGT Volumes Transportation200000 FY09 FY10 FY11180000160000140000 >> JKH currently owns an associate stake in South Asian Gateway Terminals,120000 which operates the 2m TEU capacity Queen Elizabeth Quay at the Colombo Port10000080000 on a 30 year BOT arrangement commencing September 1999. The Company60000 upped its stake in SAGT by 4.2% to 37.9% in September 2008 and a further40000 4.2% in March 09, when the ADB and IFC exercised their put options, for a total20000 0 consideration of US$23m. September November December February October January August March June April July May
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 93>> SAGT throughput which recorded a growth of 12% for FY10 recording thehighest ever throughput of 1,882,195 TEUs handled in a fiscal year is approachingfull capacity having increased by 9% yoy for the first 7 months of the fiscal year.The sector’s earnings are further augmented by strong growth in the airline andlogistics businesses.Financial Services>> The group associate companies include a 29.9% stake in Nations Trust Bank(NTB). NTB is a mid-tier bank which focuses on high end corporate and retaillending, which has recently embarked on expanding its reach nationwide. The bankhas grown assets at an average of 28% over the last five years and currently has aloan book of Rs.45.67 billion whilst posting earnings of Rs. 1.08bn in FY10 fromRs. 0.69bn in FY09. Central Bank guidelines on ownership in banks with a cap of15% by a single investor would mean that promoters JKH and Central Finance willhave to reduce their holding in NTB to a maximum of 15% by April 2012.>> UAL remains one of the leading insurance providers in Sri Lanka with amarket share of 11.3% and 9.6% in Life and Non-Life segments, respectively.During the last 5 years, UAL witnessed a CAGR of 20.5% in Gross WrittenPremium (GWP) being in line with industry growth. The country still exhibits lowpenetration levels that are expected to rise exponentially as per capita GDP levelsapproach upper middle income levels. The company recorded earnings growth of28% yoy to post earnings of Rs.512mn in FY10. Earnings growth in the sector hasalso been further augmented by contributions from the Stock Broking unit that hasbenefited from increased trading volumes at the Colombo Stock Exchange.F & B and Retail>> Increased consumer spending and the opening up of the North and Eastprovinces have collectively contributed to an increase in volumes. The company isexpected to continue to consolidate its position across its meat, ice cream and softdrink segments with new product lines while expanding its retail footprint.>FY11E>> Leisure & Property development: Average ARRs of US$60 for local resortsand occupancies of 63% for FY11E, stemming from a 46% growth in touristarrivals along with increased contributions from the city hotels is expected to propelearnings from the sector by 175%.>> With a full compliment of 841 city five star rooms available for a full year, cityhotel earnings similarly are expected to grow 138% on estimates of 75% occupancyfor Cinnamon Grand and Cinnamon Lakeside properties on a blended averageroom rate of US$ 93.>> Maldives sector earnings contribution for the full year will be sound followingthe divestment of the loss making Alidhoo property as well as with Chaaya Lagoonreopened in time for the prime winter season in Q3 FY11 following refurbishment.>> The recognition of a further 25% of Emperor revenues on a percentage ofcompletion basis of the apartments already sold, will see property income registerhealthy earnings growth.
94 | John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy >> Capital gains amounting to approximately Rs. 2bn in the 2Q FY11E from a divestment of a 5% and 2.57% stake on AHPL and KHL respectively as part of group strategy in being asset light, has added a significant earnings boost freeing up further cash for expansion in the leisure sector. >> Associates: Earnings from Associate companies are expected to grow by 42.4% with an expectation of 1.9mn+ TEU’s handled at SAGT, marginally higher than the previous year but a marginally more favourable mix weighted toward high yielding domestic shipments. Our models indicate upside of over 30% to every 10% positive change in the transhipment to domestic shipment mix. Earnings growth from associate Nations Trust Bank PLC was up by 58% for the current financial year. >> F & B and Retail: The losses at meat processing operations in India have been contained while volume growth on core soft drinks, ice cream and retail businesses is expected to result in a significant boost to the sectors contribution to group earnings. >> FY11 earnings are expected to record a normalized yoy growth of 58.5% (72.4% growth including exceptional gains from the sale of stakes in KHL and AHPL). The growth would primarily arise from the Leisure sector earnings bounce back and improved associate company contribution. >FY12E >> Leisure & Property development: Industry estimates of a 25% yoy growth in arrivals is expected to boost occupancy levels at local resorts to 67% with ARRs of US$72 pushing earnings up 58% over FY11E levels for local resorts. Minimum room rates for 5 Star properties of US$ 125 from 1st April 2011 will boost city hotel earnings with occupancy levels expected to hit 80% for FY12E. >> The recognition of remaining Emperor revenues and a modest rise in rental income will see property income record marginal gains over FY11E earnings. Earnings from the new ‘On320’ property will be recognized on completion in FY14. >> Associates: Earnings from associate companies are expected to record modest growth in FY12E on improved contributions from NTB and with SAGT expected to hit full capacity. The listing of Central Hospitals in FY12E would potentially yield further capital gains that have not been factored into our forecasts. >> F & B and Retail: Expected increase in consumer spending will result in sustained volume driven earnings growth for the sector. >> FY12 earnings are expected to record a yoy growth of 43.5% spurred on predominantly by leisure sector earnings along with a sound increase in earnings contribution across all core group businesses as well as a reduced effective tax rate for the group following corporate tax revisions announced in November last year.
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Limited | Market Strategy | 95 Price Rs. JKH PER BAND Growth Prospects >> Land Bank: The group land bank includes 25.61 and 10.9 acres of prime 400 Price 4 10 16 20 25 380 360 340 freehold and leasehold land respectively in Colombo. This includes over 8 acres of 320 cleared lake front land at the former Cold Stores Premises and a further 3 acres in 300 280 Union Place where plans are drawn up for a combined development. 260 240 220 >> Leisure Properties: Real estate assets in key tourist destinations in the South 200 and East of the island which include 44.63 acres in Trincomalee and 25.15 acres in Weerawila are in the pipeline for development. 180 160 >> Cash: The group has over US$ 166m in available liquid cash as at end 140 120 100 80 3QFY11. 60 40 20 >> Food & Beverage: Successive years of high inflation and the constraints of 0 war have kept the retail sector earnings in check. However, there can be significant upside for the sector on increases in per capital consumption on ice creams, May-07 Sep-02 Dec-05 Sep-09 Mar-03 Feb-04 Mar-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Nov-06 Nov-07 Jan-05 Oct-08 Aug-03 Aug-10 Jun-06 Apr-02 Apr-08 Jul-04 Jul-05 * Adjusted for Bonus and Rights Issues soft drinks and meat items post war as well as margin gains on high volume supermarket sales on an upward shift in basket mix from staples to higher end Price to Book Value (x) (x) 4.50 items. 4.00 Valuations >> At 18.3 FY12E earnings, the counter is at a 17.7% premium to the market. 3.50 3.00 However, the premium may be justified in terms of the organic growth potential 2.50 of its in situ infrastructure and the acquisition/expansion capacity via its strong cash reserves. FY12E normalised earnings of Rs. 10.04bn after adjustments for tax 2.00 revisions post FY11, are a 42.4% increase from FY11E normalised earnings of Rs. 1.50 7.054bn notwithstanding potential for further capital gains in FY12E. 1.00 0.50 0.00 May-07 Sep-02 Dec-05 Sep-09 Mar-03 Feb-04 Mar-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Nov-06 Nov-07 Jan-05 Oct-08 Aug-03 Aug-10 Jun-06 Apr-02 Apr-08 Jul-04 Jul-05Ratios and Valuation Mar 07A Mar 08A Mar 09A Mar 10A Mar 11E Mar 12ESales 11.3 26.9 (1.6) 18.8 10.8 13.0EBIT 25.8 34.2 (2.3) (1.4) 54.2 9.3Net Profit 15.8 44.7 (7.4) 9.9 72.4 12.0Margins (%)EBITDA 22.4 23.5 24.5 20.9 27.3 26.5EBIT 18.5 19.6 19.5 16.2 22.5 21.8Pre-Tax margin 14.5 15.7 15.4 13.4 20.3 20.1Net Margin 10.8 12.3 11.5 10.7 16.6 16.5Valuation Metrics (x)P/E 52.2 36.1 39.0 35.5 20.6 18.4P/B 4.7 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.2 2.8EV/EBITDA 23.8 17.8 17.4 17.2 11.9 10.8EV/EBIT 28.7 21.4 21.9 22.2 14.4 13.2ROE % 9.00 11.76 10.40 10.44 15.76 15.44