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Victor Yuan: interpretation of the economic data in China
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Victor Yuan: interpretation of the economic data in China

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Guest Lecture given by Dr. Victor Yuan at Hanze University of Applied Sciences

Guest Lecture given by Dr. Victor Yuan at Hanze University of Applied Sciences

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    Victor Yuan: interpretation of the economic data in China Victor Yuan: interpretation of the economic data in China Presentation Transcript

    • China’s Economic Data Interpretation 中国经济数据解读 Victor Yuan 02/2014
    • Big Data 4组大数据
    • GDP 568845 GDP (Million Yuan) 600000 Growth rate(%) 16 14 12 400000 10 8 7.7 6 200000 4 2 Source: National Bureau of Statistics Source: National Bureau of Statistics 资料来源:国家统计局 2012 2013 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 0 1978 0
    • Total Sales of Social Retail Goods 社会消费品零售总额 ($ 3.78 trillion, 13.1% growth ) 3.78万亿美元,比上年增长 13.1% Foreign Exchange Reserves 外汇储备 ($ 3.82 trillion, 15.4% growth ) 3.82万亿美元,比上年增长15.4% Yearly Total of Import & Export 全年进出口总额 ($ 4.16 trillion, 7.6% growth, Surplus of $ 0.26 trillion ) 4.16万亿美元,比上年增长7.6%,顺差0.26亿美元。 Source: National Bureau of Statistics Source: National Bureau of Statistics 资料来源:国家统计局
    • Medium Data 8 组中数据
    • Car Consumption 汽车消费 Sales has been ranking No. 1 in the world for five consecutive years 销量连续5年居世界第一 China car sales 2012-2013 (units: 10000) 2200 1900 2012 Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers 资料来源:中国汽车工业协会 2013
    • Real Estate 房地产  2013年,70个大中城市房价连续18个月呈上涨趋势。 Upward trend for 70 large and medium cities for 18 consecutive months in 2013  北京、上海、广州等一线城市,房价涨幅高达20%。 20% rose on house prices in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Source: National Bureau of Statistics 资料来源:国家统计局
    • Gold consumption 黄金消费 2013年首次超越印度,成为世界第一黄金消费大国 No. 1 gold consumer in the world 1176.4 Tons Data sources: China Gold Association Data sources: China Gold Association 资料来源:中国黄金协会
    • Luxury Consumption 奢侈品消费 2013年,中国贡献了全球奢侈品总支出的29%。 China contributed 29 % of total global luxury spending in 2013 中国人购买奢侈品的年增长率 Annual growth rate on luxury spending 30% 7% 2% 2011 Data sources: Bain & Company Data 来源:贝恩公司 2012 2013
    • Online Shopping 网络购物 2013年中国网络购物交易规模(人民币/元) China’s online shopping transaction in 2013(¥) 2 Trillion 2万亿 42% On the Single Day (Nov.11) Trading Volume = 80 billion 单天交易额800亿 Data sources: China Electronic Commerce Research Center 资料来源:中国电子商务研究中心
    • Mobile Internet 移动互联网 0.5 Billion,19 % 移动网民 智能手机 Mobile users 100 Billion,81.2% 市场规模 Total transaction Data sources: Ereli Advisory 资料来源:艾瑞咨询 0.58 Billion,60% Smartphone 9.2 Billion,371% 移动游戏市场 Mobile game 1.2 Trillion,707% 移动支付交易 Mobile Payment
    • Express Delivery 快递 9.19 Billion Units, 61.6% 144.17 Billion RMB,36.3% 业务量 业务收入 Number of Deals Revenue 2013 Data sources: Chinese State Post Bureau 资料来源:中国国家邮政局
    • Tourism 旅游 2013年,中国公民出境旅游 消费达 9430万人次,增长15% 1176亿美元,增长20% Outbound tourism: Passengers: 94,300,000, 15% increase Consumption: $117.6 billion U.S. dollars, increase of 20% Data sources: Chinese Tourism Research Institute 资料来源:中国旅游研究院
    • Small Data 5组小数字
    • Tolerance of consumer goods 消费品承受力 Cannot afford Barely afford Afford without problem 63.2 62.9 70.0 62.2 66.3 63.2 60.0 53.6 54.8 59.9 58.5 55.8 47.4 50.6 50.0 36.5 40.0 26.3 30.0 32.7 28.0 24.4 20.0 10.0 4.7 1.9 12.7 16.2 13.0 5.3 11.0 0.0 Travel Leisure Tobacco and alcohol Car Cosmetic Housing (buy or rent) Eating out Clothing Education Medical services Transportation Daily basic necessities
    • House-purchase 购房意愿 34.3662 9.2958 北京 Beijing 继续观望 Shanghai 52.2989 13.2184 29.2614 7.1023 广州 Guangzhou 53.6932 9.9432 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Data sources: Horizon Research Consultancy Group 资料来源:搜狐网与零点研究咨询集团2012年联合进行的“全国两会民生系列调查”。 60% Wait and see 有购买意愿 Willingness to buy 还是买不起 26.4368 8.0460 上海 49.8592 6.4789 Cannot afford 拒答/说不清 Decline to answer /No idea
    • Shopping online 网购 77.8% 有 的消费者明确表示有网购经历;其中,淘宝网(67.6%)和京 东商城(35.9%)荣列消费者最信赖购物网站前两位。 77.8% of consumers have confirmed their experiences of online shopping; Among them, Taobao (67.6%) and Jingdong mall (35.9%) are the most trusted consumer shopping websites. Data sources: Horizon Research Consultancy Group :network shopping satisfaction survey in 2012 . 资料来源:零点研究咨询集团2012年网络购物满意度主题调查。
    • Travel 旅游 2013年国庆期间,有 21.8%受访者有外出旅游计划 13.3%的人选择出国旅游。 其中, During the Chinese National Day (Oct 1st) in 2013, 21.8% of respondents have travel plans. Among them, 13.3% of people choose to travel abroad. Data sources: Horizon Research Consultancy Group: national tourism consumption survey in 2013. 资料来源:零点研究咨询集团2013年国庆旅游消费调查。
    • Luxury 奢侈品 70后群体,除了房、车之外他们拥有的最昂贵个人物品是 Jewelry(33.0%)& Watch (24.4%)。 Jewelry (33.0%) and watch (24.4%) are the most expensive personal items of the after 70’s groups besides house and car. Expenditure on luxuarious watches by salary groups 50.0 不同收入受访者拥有的最昂贵物品是腕表的比例(除车、房)(%) 39.3 40.0 35.5 32.1 30.0 24.9 26.7 20.0 9.7 10.0 0.0 ≤4000 4001-10000 ≥10001 Jewelry珠宝 Data sources: Horizon Research Consultancy Group 资料来源:零点研究咨询集团2013年七零后群体研究。 Watch腕表
    • Investment of European companies in China 欧洲企业在中国的投资 2013年,欧盟28国对华投资新设立企业1523家,同比下降10.41%,实际投入外资金额72.14亿美元,同比 增长18.07%。 In 2013, 1523 new EU investment in China to set up enterprises, fell 10.41% year on year. Actual investment value of $7.214 billion, up 18.07% from a year earlier. Direct investment from European Companies ( 0.1 billions of USD) 中国实际利用欧洲外商直接投资金额(亿美元) 80 74 70 56 60 50 63 59 57 55 2009 2010 2011 55 2008 59 48 44 43 40 30 20 10 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 2013
    • Most Popular APPS (In US & China)
    • THANKS! Victor YUAN Horizon Research & Consultancy Group Mobile Phone : 0086 13801098824 Fax : (86-10) 57098003 Email: victor@horizonrcg.com Address: East End Plaza, Building 1,No.24, Jiuxianqiao Middle Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing,China www.horizon-china.com