1. Momentum Trading With A Time
Stop
Long/Short Natural Gas

2. Big Picture

4. • MCX Energy Index has made a breakout from its monthly
and weekly pivots , Commodities in general have made
breakouts to the upside
• MCX Natural Gas current condition is volatile up
• This price action reminds me of G-Man’s Pullback trade and
levels which comes for potential resistance in the uptrend
are 395, however I have identified short term resistances
345-362 where supply “might” come in which also
happens to be target 1 if G-Man was trading it
• Daily 14 day volatility is greater than 20 day volatility
average & 250 day weighted average which means the
current environment has above average volatility and with
ADX above 25

5. Intraday Fundamentals
• A report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on
Thursday showed that supplies of natural-gas in underground
storage dropped to 1.686 trillion cubic feet for the week ended Feb.
7. That’s the lowest total storage level since the first week of April
2013, and it’s also the lowest storage figure for the second week of
February since 2004.
• “The market is now being pulled by extremes and by a lack of
visibility into the June situation,” said Richard Hastings, a macro
strategist at Global Hunter Securities. “What if the forecast is
wrong, and colder weather persists into mid-March? What if June
heats up too much, too fast?
• “The severe winter of 2013-2014 has put the natgas trading market
into a stretch, pulled from both directions and exposed to
uncertainty risk over a big time horizon,” he said.

6. Technical Analysis

7. • Updated weather forecasting models
indicated that a strong winter storm was set to
sweep over the northeastern U.S. on Tuesday
and bring strong winds and fresh snowfall.
• Price had rallied to 4% so chances for pullback
were high that is why we witnessed volatility
between traders from different timeframes
competing.

8. Trade Management

9. • Bid at 340.6 and made few cashflow trades i.e.
made the market by putting bids and offers apart
from the core position, covered the core by
offering at 343.3
• Hit the bids at 342 and covered into the down
spike by providing liquidity by bidding at 340.5
• Bid at 339 and offered at 340
• Offered more at 339.7 and covered by bidding at
339.1
• Stop Loss buy order at 341 was filled , covered
few minutes before close at 341.7

10. Intuition
• NO

11. Review
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I did a good job in identifying the momentum coupled with reading the tape.
I had violated a time stop because bids were strong indicating no need to exit at
that point
I need to be quick in entering orders , I can get better fills if I am a little more
quick.
When a spike occurs lighten up , I did – Good job
The spike occurred due to a large sell order , I noticed offers build and I did a good
job hitting the bids at 442 instead of offering , I would have missed the trade
otherwise, I lightened up at the down spike around 440.5 even before my time
stop
I had put a SL buy order above ATP , previously when I was long I offered infront of
ATP as there was a lot of supply , second time the time was closer to closing so
volumes filled me in above ATP and I exited before the close
Good use of different order type, Overall I am happy closing net +ive
I CAN IMPROVE EVERYDAY - Observe , React , Adapt & Evolve