Shaping The Future

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Future Objectives …

Future Objectives
•Managing business uncertainty may involve introducing, developing and implementing Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworksfor the following subject areas –
–Corporate Foresight and Business Strategy Framework
–Business Planning and Forecasting Framework
–Business Transformation Framework
–Programme Management Framework
–Enterprise Architecture Framework
–Enterprise Risk Management Framework
–Enterprise Performance Management Framework
–Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls Framework
–Social Enterprise Architecture and Triple Bottom Line Framework
•This paper describes an approach fprintroducing, developing and implementing such Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks

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  • 1. Enterprise Architecture – Future Landscape Envisioning Foresight – Strategy & Planning – Future Landscape – Advisory Consulting EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework v.10.0 La fortune favorise les audacieux….. le changement les faveurs que le puits a préparées.
  • 2. EA-envision Sources Strategic Enterprise Foresight – Strategy & Planning – EA-envision™ Management Framework Future Architecture Landscape ™ Strategic Analysis Five Visions of the Future™ Technology Futures™ Framework Futures Framework Thinking About the Future™ Peter Bishop and Andy Hines University of Houston in Texas™ Eltville Model Five Views of the Future™ Future Management Group™ Horizon Scanning 21 Drivers for the 21st Century™ Outsights™ Applied Future Studies Infinite Futures Wendy Schultz Transhumanism Natasha Vita-More Extropy Institute, President Cultural Strategist Futurist Arts & Culture, Founder Brainstorming Advanced 'Kaleidoscope Businessballs.com Brainstorming'© technique Massive Change The Massive Change Project Bruce Mau Design and the Institute Without Boundaries Foresight and Precognition The Sixth Sense Kees Van der Heijden Precognition Jeffry Palmer Precognition: Sensing the Future Rita Berkowitz, Deborah S. Romaine EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 3. Futurology Organisations EA-envision • Established Management • Established Foresight, Planned and Consultancies with Foresight Practices Managed Futures Consultancies – Booze & Co – Kate Thomas & Kleyn Future Management – The Boston Group – Outsights – AT Kearney – Technology Futures Inc. (TFI) – Arthur D. Little • Emerging Futures and Horizon Scanning – McKinsey Consultancies - challengers – Monitor – Core UK – Roland Berger – The Structure Group (TSG) • Niche / Boutique Futurology • Futurology Associations and Institutes Consultancies – rising stars – Association of Professional; Futurists (APF) – Fast Future – Extropy Institute – Foresight Consulting – The European Futures Conference – future directions GmbH – The European Futures Observatory – futurestudies – Global Foresight Network – Future Management Group – Institute Without Boundaries – Future Trends – Shaping Tomorrow - The Foresight Network – Infinite Futures – The Institute for the Future – Leading Futurists – Strategic Foresight Network – Strategic Foresight Consultancy – ZUKUNFTSINSTITUT – Sutherland Consulting – ZUKUNFTSFORSCHUNG – The Futures Group – ZUKUNFTSMANAGEMENTS EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 4. EA-envision Future Objectives • It has long been recognised that one of the most important competitive factors for any organization to master is the management of uncertainty. Uncertainty is the major intangible factor contributing towards the risk of failure in every process, at every level, in every type of business: - – Corporate Foresight and Business Strategy – M&A Integration and Business Restructuring – Business Planning and Forecasting – Strategic Finance and Investment – Business Transformation – Programme Management – Enterprise Architecture – Enterprise Risk Management – Enterprise Performance Management – Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls – Social Enterprise Architecture and Triple Bottom Line Management EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 5. EA-envision Future Objectives • Managing business uncertainty may involve introducing, developing and implementing Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks for the following subject areas – – Corporate Foresight and Business Strategy Framework – Business Planning and Forecasting Framework – Business Transformation Framework – Programme Management Framework – Enterprise Architecture Framework – Enterprise Risk Management Framework – Enterprise Performance Management Framework – Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls Framework – Social Enterprise Architecture and Triple Bottom Line Framework • This paper describes an approach fpr introducing, developing and implementing such Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 6. EA-envision Future Objectives • Our mission is to deliver a set of products which are free-to-use at point of distribution (starter pack) that makes managing the Future much more accessible to future stakeholders (everyone…..) This may include (but is not restricted to) some or all of the following: - • Future Starter Pack • Future Framework – Introduction – Advanced Methods & Techniques – Basic Methods & Techniques – Guidelines and Best Practice • Futures Studies • Future Governance – Future Paradigms – Principles and Policies – Prediction and Futurology – Approaches and Standards – Strategists versus Futurists • Future Toolkit – Foresight – Enterprise Modelling – Forecasting • (e.g. Aris, Computas from Metis) – Horizon Scanning – Visualisation Tools – Risk Management • (e.g. Visual Paradigm) – Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis – Repository Tools – Master Plan and Future Roadmap • (e.g. Adaptive) • Future Resources – Planning / Simulation Tools • (e.g. PlanView, PlanningIT) – Templates – Statistical Analysis – Monte Carlo – CHAID – Reference Models – Analytics – Goal-seeking – Scenarios – Collaboration, Futures Organisations, Networking. & Knowledge Management – Data Mining – Propensity Modelling EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 7. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework 1. Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks 6. Business Strategy Development 1.1 SEM Framework Design and Development 6.1 Business Innovation 1.2 SEM Framework Deployment and Implementation 6.2 Technology Innovation 2. Foresight Approaches and Methods 6.3 Strategy Discovery 2.1. Future Study Domain - Framing and Scoping 6.4 Strategy Development 2.2. Horizon Scanning and Delphi Oracle 6.5 Enterprise Performance Strategy 2.3. Strategic Envisioning and Predictive Models 6.6 Business Transformation Strategy 2.4. Possible Futures and Alternative Futures 2.5. Preferred Futures and Desired Outcomes 7. Current / Future Business Models 2.6. Strategic Forecasting and Planning 7.1 Operational Model - Process Execution, Integration & 2.7. Managed Futures Implementation and Execution Orchestration, Collaboration, Workgroups & Workflow 3. Foresight Tools & Techniques 7.2 Tactical Model - Analysis, Reporting and Communication 3.1. Trend / Extrapolation Analysis 7.3 Strategic Model - Command, Control and Co-ordination 3.2. Precursor / Pattern Analysis 8. Enterprise Performance Management 3.3. Scenario / Goal Analysis 8.1. Critical Success Factors 3.4. Outsights 21 Drivers for the 21st Century 8.2. Key Performance Indicators 3.5. Game Theory / Monte Carlo Simulation 8.3. Business Metrics 3.6. Boston Group Matrix / Five Forces / SWOT Analysis 3.7. Threat Assessment / Risk Management 9. Business Transformation 3.8. Data Mining / Statistical Analysis 9.1. Business Transition Planning 4. Future Enterprise Architecture Blueprint 9.2. Business Process Management 4.1. Business Landscape Envisioning 9.3. Business Programme Planning 4.2. Application Landscape Envisioning 9.4. Business Change Management 4.3. Technology Landscape Envisioning 9.5. Organization Management 4.4. Business Roadmap Planning 9.6. Human Resource Management 4.5. Application Roadmap Planning 10. Business Programme Management 4.6. Technology Roadmap Planning 10.1. Benefits Realisation Strategy 4.7 Business Architecture Blueprint 4.7.1. Organisation Architecture Blueprint 10.2. Communications Strategy 4.7.2. Process Architecture Blueprint 10.3. Stakeholder Management Strategy 4.7.3. Data Architecture Blueprint 11. Enterprise Portfolio Management 4.7.4. Information Architecture Blueprint 11.1. Project Portfolio Management 4.8. Application Architecture Blueprint 11.2. Application Portfolio Management 4.9. Infrastructure Architecture Blueprint 11.3. Technology Portfolio Management 4.10. Architecture Visualisation, Scenarios and Simulation 5. Publish Current / Future Business Master Plan 12. Publish Current / Future Enterprise Architecture
  • 8. EA-envision Futures Studies Framework Futures Studies Political Economic Ethnographic & Environmental Science & Strategic Sociology and Science and Futures Demographic Futures Technology Foresight Human Futures Policy Futures Futures Horizons Human Identity. Science and Society Foundations, History History and Culture Futures and Philosophy of Political Science Economic Theory Demographics Earth Sciences 12. Outsights 17. Outsights Prediction Identity Science and Society Future Frameworks, Economic Planning Religion, Values and Bio-Technology and Paradigms, Methods Policy Studies and Strategy Beliefs Psychographics Life Sciences Medical Science & Techniques Future Strategy, Urbanisation and the Philosophy and Sustainability and Sustainability and Planning, Governance, Law Growth of Cities Ethical Studies Ethnographics Renewable Renewable Forecasting, and Order 21. Outsights Resources (1) Resources (2) Modelling & Analysis Urbanisation Peace and Conflict Shaping the Future - Corporate Finance Nano-Technology Studies Psychology and Global Massive Planned and and Strategic Biographics and 1. Outsights War, Patterns of Behaviour Change Managed Outcomes Investment Artificial Intelligence Terrorism, Security Financial Markets Transhumanism Threat Assessment & Information and Military Science and Traded The Arts Risk Management Communication Instruments Natasha Vita-Moore Innovation and Business Communications and Weapons and Entrepreneurial Administration Media Studies Countermeasures Studies Futures Collaboration Networking & Cosmology and Knowledge Space Science Management
  • 9. Futures Studies Framework Primary Futures Disciplines (27) Secondary Futures Specialties (27) Futures Studies History and Analysis of Prediction Alternative Futures Critical and Evidence-Based Thinking Future Foundations and Foresight Frameworks Probabilistic (Statistical) Prediction Planning and Strategy (foundation & advanced) Forecasting and Modelling (foundation and advanced) Ethnographic / Demographic Futures Geo-demographic Profiling and Actuarial Science Strategic Foresight Threat Assessment and Risk Management Scenario Analysis Scenario Development and Back-casting Market Analysis and Prediction Corporate Finance and Long-Term / Strategic Investment Environmental / Horizon Scanning Geography, Sociology, Demographics and Social Change Pattern Analysis and Extrapolation Urban and Long-Range Infrastructure Planning Science and Technology Futures Studies Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies Systems and Technology Trends Analysis Cross Impact and Pattern Analysis Environment, Ecology and Sustainability Studies Future Landscape Envisioning. Planning and Mapping Emerging Issues / Technology Trends Analysis Preferential Surveys / Polls and Market Research Knowledge Management and Decision Support Collaboration, Facilitation Predictive Envisioning Intuition and Pre-cognition Development and Acceleration Studies Linear Systems Studies Massive Global Change Complex Systems, Chaos Theory, Human Impact Analysis Critical Futures and Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Peace and Conflict Studies, Military Science Cognitive and Positive Psychology Personal Futures / Foresight Development Foresight, Intuition and Pre-cognition Predictive Surveys / Delphi Oracle Political Science and Policy Studies Leadership Studies, Religious Studies (Future Beliefs) Ethics of Emerging Technology Studies Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Management Sociology, Philosophy and Evolution Studies Trans-humanism, Ethics and Values Studies Integral Studies and Future Thinking Weak Signals and Wildcards Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity Utopian and Dystopian Literature, Film & Arts Bio-Technology and Quantum Science Science Fiction and Images of the Future
  • 10. Futures Discovery Foresight – Strategy & Planning – Future Landscape – Advisory Consulting EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework Après la tempête c'est calme….. plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. “Take hold of your future - or your future will take hold of you…..” (Patrick Dixon - Futurewise. 2005)
  • 11. EA-envision The Management of Uncertainty • It has long been recognized that one of the most important competitive factors for any organization to master is the management of uncertainty. • Uncertainty is the major intangible factor contributing towards the risk of failure in every process, at every level, in every type of business. • Managing business uncertainty may involve introducing, developing and implementing strategic enterprise management frameworks for – – Corporate Foresight and Business Strategy – Business Planning and Forecasting – Business Transformation – Enterprise Architecture – Enterprise Risk Management – Enterprise Performance Management – Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 12. EA-envision Futures Studies • Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology is the practice and art of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures . Futures studies (colloquially called "Futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends. • Futures is an interdisciplinary curriculum, studying yesterday's and today's changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional strategies, bets and opinions with respect to tomorrow. It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in the attempt to develop foresight and to map possible futures. • Around the world the field is variously referred to as futures studies, strategic foresight, futurology, futuristics, futures thinking, futuring, futuribles (in France, the latter is also the name of the important 20th century foresight journal published only in French), and prospectiva (in Spain and Latin America). Futures studies (and one of its sub-disciplines, strategic foresight) are the academic field's most commonly used terms in the English-speaking world.
  • 13. EA-envision Foresight • In Futures Studies, the term " Foresight" embraces: - – Critical thinking concerning long-term policy development, – Debate and consultation to create wider stakeholder participation, – Shaping the future - by influencing public policy and strategic direction • Foresight is being applied to strategic activities in the public as well as the private sector, and underlines the need to link every activity or project with any kind of future dimension to action today in order to make a planned, integrated future impact (“shaping the future”). • Foresight differs from much futures research and strategic planning. It encompasses a range of approaches that combine the three components mentioned above, which may be recast as: - – futures (forecasting, forward thinking, perspectives), – planning (strategic analysis, priority setting), and – networking (participatory, dialogic) tools and orientations. • Much futures research has been academic, but Foresight programmes were designed to influence policy - often R&D policy. Much technology policy had been very elitist; Foresight attempts to go beyond the normal bounds and gather widely distributed intelligence
  • 14. EA-envision Foresight • Foresight draws on traditions of work in long-range forecasting and strategic planning, horizontal policymaking and democratic planning, horizon scanning and futures studies - but was also highly influenced by systemic approaches to innovation studies, global design, science and technology policy, and analysis of "critical technologies“ and “cultural evolution". • Many of the methods that are commonly associated with Foresight - Delphi surveys, scenario workshops, etc. - derive from the futures field. So does the fact that Foresight is concerned with: - – The longer-term - futures that are usually at least 10 years away (though there are some exceptions to this, especially in its use in private business). Since Foresight is action-oriented (the planning link) it will rarely be oriented to perspectives beyond a few decades out (though where decisions like aircraft design, power station construction or other major infrastructural decisions are concerned, then the planning horizon may well be half a century). – Alternative futures: it is helpful to examine alternative paths of development, not just what is currently believed to be most likely or business as usual. Often Foresight will construct multiple scenarios. These may be an interim step on the way to creating what may be known as positive visions, success scenarios, aspirational futures. Sometimes alternative scenarios will be a major part of the output of Foresight work, with the decision about what fuure to build being left to other mechanisms.
  • 15. EA-envision Strategic Foresight • Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational ways. For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and to explore new markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures methods with those of strategic management (Slaughter (1999), p.287). • Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via Strategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and management - so that the future becomes realistic and achievable. Possible futures may comply with our preferred options - and therefore our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes could thus be fulfilled – Positivism – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will conform to our preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled. – Futurism – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures – selecting those futures offering conditions that best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving a preferred and desired future. Filtering for a more detailed analysis may be achieved by discounting isolated outliers and focusing upon those closely clustered future descriptions which best support our desired future outcomes, goals and objectives. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 16. Strategic Foresight Framework EA-envision
  • 17. EA-envision Forecasting • Forecasting is the process of estimation in unknown situations. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both can refer to estimation of time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data. • Usage can differ between areas of application: for example in hydrology, the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. • Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction. Forecasting is used in the practice of in every day business forecasting for manufacturing companies. The discipline of demand planning, also sometimes referred to as supply chain forecasting, embraces both statistical forecasting and a consensus process. • Forecasting is commonly used in discussion of time-series data. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 18. EA-envision Risk Management • Risk management is a structured approach to managing uncertainty through foresight and planning. A risk is related to a specific threat (or group of related threats) managed through a sequence of activities using various resources: - • Risk Research – Risk Identification – Risk Prioritization – Risk Assessment – Risk Management Strategies – Risk Planning – Risk Mitigation • Risk management strategies may include: - – transferring the risk to another party – avoiding the risk – reducing the negative effect of the risk – accepting part or all of the consequences of a particular risk . • In an ideal risk management scenario, a prioritization process ranks those risks with the greatest potential loss and the greatest probability of occurring to be handled first - and risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower consequential losses are then handled in descending order • In practice this prioritization can be challenging. Comparing and balancing the overall threat of risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss - versus risks with higher potential loss but lower probability of occurrence - can often be misleading.
  • 19. EA-envision Enterprise Risk Management Framework
  • 20. EA-envision Global Massive Change • Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It encompasses both utopian and dystopian possibilities of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment, ecology and geology are dominated by human manipulation: - – Human impact is now the major factor in climate change. – Species extinction rate is now greater than in the late Permian mass extinction event – in which 90% of all species were eliminated – Man now moves more rock and earth than do all geological processes.
  • 21. Climate Change • Most scientists agree that global warming presents the greatest threat to the environment. There is little doubt that the Earth is heating up. In the last century the average temperature has climbed about 0.6 degrees Celsius (about 1 degree Fahrenheit) around the world. • From the melting of the ice cap on Mount Kilimanjaro, Africa's tallest peak, to the loss of tropical coral reefs as oceans become warmer, the effects of global warming are often clear. Just as the evidence is irrefutable that temperatures have risen in the last century, it's also well established that carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has increased about 30 percent, enhancing the atmosphere's ability to trap heat. • The exact link, if any, between the increase in carbon dioxide emissions and the higher temperatures is still under debate. Most scientists believe that humans, by burning fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum, are largely to blame for the increase in carbon dioxide. But some scientists also point to natural causes, such as volcanic activity. • The current rate of warning is unprecedented, however. It is apparently the fastest warming rate in millions of years, suggesting it probably is not a natural occurrence. And most scientists believe the rise in temperatures will in fact accelerate. The United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2001 that the average temperature is likely to increase by between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius (2.5 and 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the year 2100.
  • 22. Climate Change • Since our entire climatic system is fundamentally driven by energy from the sun, it stands to reason that if the sun's energy output were to change, then so would the climate. Since the advent of space-borne measurements in the late 1970s, solar output has indeed been shown to vary. With now 28 years of reliable satellite observations there is confirmation of earlier suggestions of an 11 (and 22) year cycle of irradiance related to sunspots but no longer term trend in these data. • Based on paleoclimatic (proxy) reconstructions of solar irradiance there is suggestion of a trend of about +0.12 W/m2 since 1750 which is about half of the estimate given in the last IPCC report in 2001. There is though, a great deal of uncertainty in estimates of solar irradiance beyond what can be measured by satellites, and still the contribution of direct solar irradiance forcing is small compared to the greenhouse gas component. However, our understanding of the indirect effects of changes in solar output and feedbacks in the climate system is minimal. There is much need to refine our understanding of key natural forcing mechanisms of the climate, including solar irradiance changes, in order to reduce uncertainty in our projections of future climate change.
  • 23. Climate Change • In addition to changes in energy from the sun itself, the Earth's position and orientation relative to the sun (our orbit) also varies slightly, thereby bringing us closer and further away from the sun in predictable cycles (Milankovitch Cycles). Variations in these cycles are believed to be the cause of Earth's ice-ages (glacial episodes). One factor of particular importance for the development of glaciations is the amount of radiation received at high northern latitudes in the summer. • Diminishing radiation at these latitudes during the summer months would have enabled winter snow and ice cover to persist throughout the year, eventually leading to a permanent snow- or icepack. Over several centuries, it may be possible to observe the effect of these orbital parameters. While Milankovitch Cycles have tremendous value in explaining ice-ages and long-term climatic changes on the earth, there are other factors which have very high impact on the decade-century timescale. However for the prediction of climate change in the 21st century, these long-term factors will be far less significant than other changes - such a radiative forcing from greenhouse gases.
  • 24. EA-envision Milankovitch Cycles • Milankovitch Cycles are the collective effect of changes in the Earth's movements upon its climate, named after the Serbian mathematician Milutin Milanković. The eccentricity (E), axial tilt (T), and precession (P) of the Earth's orbit vary in several patterns, resulting in 100,000-year ice age cycles of the Quaternary glaciations over the last few million years. The Earth's axis completes one full cycle of precession (P) approximately every 26,000 years. At the same time, the elliptical orbit rotates, more slowly, leading to a 21,000-year cycle between the seasons and the orbit. In addition, the angle between Earth's rotational axis and the normal to the plane of its orbit moves from 22.1 degrees to 24.5 degrees and back again on a 41,000-year cycle. Currently, this angle is 23.44 degrees and decreasing. • The Milankovitch Cycles, or ‘orbital’ theory of the ice ages is now well developed. Ice ages are generally triggered by minima in high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, enabling winter snowfall to persist through the year and therefore accumulate to build Northern Hemisphere glacial ice sheets. Similarly, times with especially intense high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, determined by orbital changes, are thought to trigger rapid de-glaciations, associated climate change and sea level rise. These orbital forcings determine the pacing of climatic changes, while the large responses appear to be determined by strong feedback processes that amplify the orbital forcing. Over multi-millennial time scales, orbital forcing also exerts a major influence on key climate systems such as the Earth’s major monsoons, global ocean circulation and the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere. • Current evidence indicates that current warming will not be mitigated by a natural cooling trend towards glacial conditions. Understanding of the Earth’s response to orbital forcing indicates that the Earth will not naturally enter another ice age for at least 30,000 years.
  • 25. EA-envision Milankovitch Cycles EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 26. EA-envision The Earth’s Movements • As the Earth spins around its axis and orbits around the Sun, several quasi-periodic variations occur. Although the curves have a large number of sinusoidal components, a few components are dominant. Milankovitch studied changes in the eccentricity, obliquity, and precession of Earth's movements. Such changes in movement and orientation change the amount and location of solar radiation reaching the Earth. This is known as solar forcing (an example of radiative forcing). Changes near the north polar area are considered important due to the large amount of land, which reacts to such changes more quickly than the oceans do. • Currently the difference between closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) and furthest distance (aphelion) is only 3.4% (5.1 million km). This difference is equivalent to about a 6.8% change in incoming solar radiation. Perihelion presently occurs around January 3, while aphelion is around July 4. When the orbit is at its most elliptical, the amount of solar radiation at perihelion is about 23% greater than at aphelion. This difference is roughly 4 times the value of the eccentricity. • Orbital mechanics require that the length of the seasons be proportional to the areas of the seasonal quadrants, so when the eccentricity is extreme, the seasons on the far side of the orbit can be substantially longer in duration. When autumn and winter occur at closest approach, as is the case currently in the northern hemisphere, the earth is moving at its maximum velocity and therefore autumn and winter are slightly shorter than spring and summer. Thus, summer in the northern hemisphere is 4.66 days longer than winter and spring is 2.9 days longer than autumn. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 27. EA-envision Milankovitch Cycles National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  • 28. EA-envision Orbital shape (eccentricity) • The Earth's orbit is an ellipse. The eccentricity is a measure of the departure of this ellipse from circularity. The shape of the Earth's orbit varies from being nearly circular (low eccentricity of 0.005) to being mildly elliptical (high eccentricity of 0.058) and has a mean eccentricity of 0.028. The major component of these variations occurs on a period of 413,000 years (eccentricity variation of ±0.012). A number of other terms vary between 95,000 and 136,000 years, and loosely combine into a 100,000-year cycle (variation of −0.03 to +0.02). The present eccentricity is 0.017. • If the Earth were the only planet orbiting our Sun, the eccentricity of its orbit would not vary in time. The Earth's eccentricity varies primarily due to interactions with the gravitational fields of Jupiter and Saturn. As the eccentricity of the orbit evolves, the semi-major axis of the orbital ellipse remains unchanged. From the perspective of the perturbation theory used in celestial mechanics to compute the evolution of the orbit, the semi-major axis is an adiabatic invariant. According to Kepler's third law the period of the orbit is determined by the semi-major axis. It follows that the Earth's orbital period, the length of a sidereal year, also remains unchanged as the orbit evolves. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 29. EA-envision Orbital inclination • The inclination of Earth's orbit drifts up and down relative to its present orbit with a cycle having a period of about 70,000 years. Note: Milankovitch did not study this three-dimensional aspect of orbital movement. • More recent researchers noted this drift and that the orbit also moves relative to the orbits of the other planets. The invariable plane, the plane that represents the angular momentum of the solar system, is approximately the orbital plane of Jupiter. The inclination of the Earth's orbit has a 100,000 year cycle relative to the invariable plane. This 100,000-year cycle closely matches the 100,000-year pattern of ice ages. • It has been proposed that a disk of dust and other debris is in the invariable plane, and this affects the Earth's climate through several possible means. The Earth presently moves through this plane around January 9 and July 9, when there is an increase in radar-detected meteors and meteor-related noctilucent clouds. • A study of the chronology of Antarctic ice cores using oxygen to nitrogen ratios in air bubbles trapped in the ice, which appear to respond directly to the local insolation, concluded that the climatic response documented in the ice cores was driven by Northern Hemisphere insolation as proposed by the Milankovitch hypothesis (Kawamura et al, Nature, 23 August 2007, vol 448, p912-917). This is an additional validation of the Milankovitch hypothesis by a relatively novel method, and is inconsistent with the "inclination" theory of the 100,000-year cycle. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 30. EA-envision Axial tilt (obliquity) • The angle of the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity) varies with respect to the plane of the Earth's orbit. These slow 2.4° obliquity variations are roughly periodic, taking approximately 41,000 years to shift between a tilt of 22.1° and 24.5° and back again. When the obliquity increases, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in insolation increases, with summers in both hemispheres receiving more irradiative flux from the Sun, and the winters less irradiative flux. As a result, it is assumed that the winters become colder and summers warmer. • But these changes of opposite sign in the summer and winter are not of the same magnitude. The annual mean insolation increases in high latitudes with increasing obliquity, while lower latitudes experience a reduction in insolation. Cooler summers are suspected of encouraging the start of an ice age by melting less of the previous winter's ice and snow. So it can be argued that lower obliquity favours ice ages both because of the mean insolation reduction in high latitudes as well as the additional reduction in summer insolation. • Currently the Earth is tilted at 23.44 degrees from its orbital plane, roughly half way between its extreme values. The tilt is in the decreasing phase of its cycle, and will reach its minimum value around the year 10,000 AD. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 31. EA-envision Precession (wobble) • Precession is the change in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation relative to the fixed stars, with a period of roughly 26,000 years. This gyroscopic motion is due to the tidal forces exerted by the sun and the moon on the solid Earth, associated with the fact that the Earth is not a perfect sphere but has an equatorial bulge. The sun and moon contribute roughly equally to this effect. In addition, the orbital ellipse itself precesses in space (anomalistic precession), primarily as a result of interactions with Jupiter and Saturn. This orbital precession is in the opposite sense to the gyroscopic motion of the axis of rotation, shortening the period of the precession of the equinoxes with respect to the perihelion from 26,000 to 21,000 years. • When the axis is aligned so it points toward the Sun during perihelion, one polar hemisphere will have a greater difference between the seasons while the other hemisphere will have milder seasons. The hemisphere which is in summer at perihelion will receive much of the corresponding increase in solar radiation, but that same hemisphere will be in winter at aphelion and have a colder winter. The other hemisphere will have a relatively warmer winter and cooler summer. • When the Earth's axis is aligned such that aphelion and perihelion occur near the equinoxes, the Northern and Southern Hemispheres will have similar contrasts in the seasons. • At present perihelion occurs during the Southern Hemisphere's summer, and aphelion is reached during the southern winter. Thus the Southern Hemisphere seasons are somewhat more extreme than the Northern Hemisphere seasons, when other factors are equal.
  • 32. Climate Change • Indirect indicators of global warming such as ice borehole temperatures, snow cover, and glacier recession data, are in substantial agreement with the more direct indicators of recent warmth. Evidence such as changes in glacial mass balance (the amount of snow and ice contained in a glacier) is useful since it not only provides qualitative support for meteorological data, but glaciers are often found in places too remote to support meteorological stations. The records of glacial advance and retreat often extend back further than weather station records, and glaciers are usually at much higher altitudes than weather stations, allowing scientists more insight into temperature changes prevalent higher in the atmosphere - though extending the Antarctic sea-ice record back in time is more difficult due to the lack of direct observations in this part of the world. • Large-scale measurements of sea-ice have only been possible since the satellite era, but through looking at a number of different satellite estimates, it has been determined that September Arctic sea ice has decreased between 1973 and 2007 at a rate of about -10% +/- 0.3% per decade. Sea ice extent for September for 2007 was by far the lowest on record at 4.28 million square kilometres, eclipsing the previous record low sea ice extent by 23%. Sea ice in the Antarctic has shown very little trend over the same period, or even a slight increase from 1979 to 1995. • In 1995, however, Larsen Ice Shelf A disintegrated. In 2002 the whole of the Larsen Ice Shelf B disappeared in just a few weeks – an area the size of Rhode Island in the USA. The mechanism is thought to be summer liquid water pooling at the surface, filtering down cracks and crevices and subsequently freezing – shattering the ice sheet
  • 33. Glacial Ice Mass Balance
  • 34. Sea Ice Extent
  • 35. Global Warming • Clouds are an important indicator of climate change. Surface-based observations of cloud cover suggest increases in total cloud cover over many continental regions – including areas of increased urbanization such as tropical Africa and southern Asia. This increase since 1950 is consistent with regional increases in precipitation for the same period. However, despite regional variation, analyses of cloud cover over land for the period 1976- 2003 shows little statistically significant overall global change. • An enhanced greenhouse effect would be expected to cause cooling in higher parts of the atmosphere because the increased "blanketing" effect in the lower atmosphere holds in more heat, allowing less to reach the upper atmosphere. Cooling of the lower stratosphere (about 49,000-79,500 ft.) since 1979 is shown by both satellite Microwave Sounding Unit and weather balloon data, but is larger in weather balloon data (most likely this is due to unidentified / uncorrected data errors). • Relatively cool surface and tropospheric temperatures, and a relatively warmer lower stratosphere, were observed in 1992 and 1993, due to atmospheric volcanic dust following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. The warming reappeared in 1994. A dramatic global warming took place in 1998 - at least partly associated with the record El Niño. This warming episode was consistent from the surface right to the top of the troposphere.
  • 36. Global Warming EA-envision Global surface temperatures have increased about 0.74°C (plus or minus 0.18°C) since the late-19th century, and the linear trend for the past 50 years of 0.13°C (plus or minus 0.03°C) per decade is nearly twice that for the past 100 years The warming has not been globally uniform. Some areas (including parts of the south- eastern U.S. and parts of the North Atlantic) have, in fact, cooled slightly over the last century. The recent warmth has been greatest over North America and Eurasia between 40 and 70°N, Lastly, seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001 and the 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1995.
  • 37. Global Warming • Examination of changes in climate extremes requires long-term daily or even hourly data sets which until recently have been scarce for many parts of the globe. However these data sets have become more widely available allowing research into changes in temperature and precipitation extremes on global and regional scales. Global changes in temperature extremes include decreases in the number of unusually cold days and nights and increases in the number of unusually warm days and nights. Other observed changes include lengthening of the growing season, and decreases in the number of frost days. • Global temperature extremes have been found to exhibit no significant trend in inter- annual variability, but several studies suggest a significant decrease in intra-annual variability. There has been a clear trend to fewer extremely low minimum temperatures in several widely-separated areas in recent decades. Widespread significant changes in extreme high temperature events have not been observed. There is some indication of a decrease in day-to-day temperature variability in recent decades. • Many individual studies of various regions show that extra-tropical cyclone activity seems to have generally increased over the last half of the 20th century in the northern hemisphere, but decreased in the southern hemisphere. Furthermore, hurricane activity in the Atlantic has shown an increase in number since 1970 with a peak in 2005. It is not clear whether these trends are multi-decadal fluctuations or part of a longer-term trend.
  • 38. Global Warming Recent analyses of temperature trends in the lower and mid- troposphere (between about 2,500 and 26,000 ft.) using both satellite and weather balloon data show warming rates that are similar to those observed for surface air temperatures. These warming rates are consistent with their uncertainties and these analyses reconcile a discrepancy between warming rates noted on the IPCC Third Assessment Report (U.S. Climate Change Science Plan Synthesis and Assessment Report 1.1). .
  • 39. Storms
  • 40. Precipitation • Globally-averaged land-based precipitation shows no statistically significant upward trend - with most of the increase occurring in the first half of the 20th century. Furthermore, observed precipitation changes have been spatially variable over the last century. • On a regional basis, increase in annual precipitation have occurred in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, in southern South America and in northern Australia – areas remote from major cities. Decreases have occurred in tropical Africa and in southern Asia. • This may be explained by the dramatic increase in air travel from the early 1960s onwards. Up to 10% of global cloud cover is generated by jet condensation trails – acting to both reduce the amount of energy from sunlight reaching the earth, and also the amount of evaporation of surface water caused by photon energy in sunlight directly exciting surface water molecules - thus making them more energetic and increasing overall evaporation. • Jet aircraft traffic density is lower in higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, southern South America and in northern Australia – therefore jet condensation trails have a smaller impact on reducing evaporation. Clearly, although jet travel contributes greatly to rising greenhouse gas levels, jet condensation trails act to suppress impact on the environment • Due to the difficulty in measuring trends in annual precipitation, it has been important to validate these observations by analysing other related variables. The measured changes in precipitation are consistent with observed changes in stream flow, lake levels, and soil moisture (where data sets are available and have been analysed).
  • 41. Precipitation Globally-averaged land-based precipitation shows no statistically significant upward trend - with most of the increase occurring in the first half of the 20th century. Furthermore, observed precipitation changes have been spatially variable over the last century. On a regional basis, increase in annual precipitation have occurred in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, in southern South America and in northern Australia – areas remote from major cities. Decreases have occurred in tropical Africa and in southern Asia.
  • 42. Precipitation On a regional basis, increase in annual precipitation have occurred in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, in southern South America and in northern Australia – all areas that are remote from major cities. Decreases in annual precipitation have occurred in tropical Africa and in southern Asia – all areas of increased urbanisation.
  • 43. El Niño and La Niña • El Niño's are not caused by global warming. Clear evidence exists from a variety of sources (including archaeological studies) that El Niño's have been present for thousands, and some indicators suggest maybe millions, of years. However, it has been hypothesized that warmer global sea surface temperatures can enhance the El Niño phenomenon, and it is also true that El Niño's (and La Niña's) have been more frequent and intense in recent decades. Whether El Niño occurrence changes with climate change is a major research question. • A rather abrupt change in the El Niño - Southern Oscillation behavior occurred around 1976/77. Often called the climatic shift of 1976/77, this new regime has persisted. There have been relatively more frequent and persistent El Niño episodes rather than the cool episode La Niñas. This behavior is highly unusual in the last 130 years (the period of instrumental record). Changes in precipitation over the tropical Pacific are related to this change in the El Niño - Southern Oscillation, which has also affected the pattern and magnitude of surface temperatures. However, it is unclear as to whether this apparent change in the ENSO cycle is related to global warming. • In areas where a drought or excessive wetness usually accompanies an El Niño or La Niña, these dry or wet spells have been more intense in recent years. Further, there is some evidence for increasing drought worldwide, however in the U.S. there is no evidence for increasing drought.In some areas where overall precipitation has increased (ie. the mid-high northern latitudes), there is evidence of increases in the heavy and extreme precipitation events
  • 44. El Niño and La Niña • In areas where a drought or excessive wetness usually accompanies an El Niño or La Niña, these dry or wet spells have been more intense in recent years. Further, there is some evidence for increasing drought worldwide, however in the U.S. there is no evidence for increasing drought. • In some areas where overall precipitation has increased (ie. the mid-high northern latitudes), there is evidence of increases in the heavy and extreme precipitation events. Even in areas such as eastern Asia, it has been found that extreme precipitation events have increased despite total precipitation remaining constant or even decreasing somewhat. This is related to a decrease in the frequency of precipitation in this region. • On a regional basis, increase in annual precipitation have occurred in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, in southern South America and in northern Australia – all areas that are remote from major cities. Decreases in annual precipitation have occurred in tropical Africa and in southern Asia – all areas of increased urbanisation.
  • 45. El Niño and La Niña In areas where a drought or excessive wetness usually accompanies an El Niño or La Niña, these dry or wet spells have been more intense in recent years. Further, there is some evidence for increasing drought worldwide, however in the U.S. there is no evidence for increasing drought. Even in areas such as eastern Asia, it has been found that extreme precipitation events have increased despite total precipitation remaining constant or even decreasing somewhat. This is related to a decrease in the frequency of precipitation in this region.
  • 46. EA-envision Sea Level Rising - Historic • Global mean sea level has been rising historically at an average rate of 1.7 mm/year (plus or minus 0.5mm) over the past 100 years, which is significantly larger than the rate averaged over the last several thousand years. However, the global average sea level is currently rising , for the most part, at nearly 3mm/year and accelerating. Scientists fully expect average sea levels to have risen by 30cm or more by 2100 on a simple projection of these ocean thermal expansion figures alone. • Depending on which greenhouse gas increase scenario is used (high or low) projected sea-level rise is projected to be anywhere from 0.18 (low greenhouse gas increase) to 0.59 meters by 2100 for the highest greenhouse gas increase scenario. Acceleration of global warming may lead to a ten-fold future global sea level increase – suggesting a possible 3 meter rise in average sea levels by 2100. • However, this simplistic linear increase in global mean sea level is based only on ocean thermal expansion - with small contributions from retreating alpine glaciers – and does not include any potential massive contributions from land based melting ice caps in either Greenland or Antarctica. Very much larger sea level increases must be expected but our current understanding of glacial dynamics leads to uncertainties in being able to assess the precise extent of large-scale melting of massive ice caps. • The greatest danger, many experts warn, is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically. Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans by around 7 inches (17 to 18 centimetres). This mean sea level rise is insignificant compared to what would happen if, for example, Greenland's massive ice sheet were to melt.
  • 47. Sea Level Rising s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  • 48. EA-envision Sea Level Rising - Future • Large-scale measurements of sea-ice have only been possible since the satellite era, but through looking at a number of different satellite estimates, it has been determined that September Arctic sea ice has decreased between 1973 and 2007 at a rate of about -10% +/- 0.3% per decade. Sea ice extent for September for 2007 was by far the lowest on record at 4.28 million square kilometres, eclipsing the previous record low sea ice extent by 23%. Sea ice in the Antarctic has shown very little trend over the same period, or even a slight increase from 1979 to 1995. • Recent research has established a direct correlation between sea levels and average global temperature. For each one degree centigrade increase / decrease in average global temperature then there is a corresponding 20 metre rise / fall in sea level (Professor Richard Alley, Penn State University). The IPCC projects a best estimate of global temperature increase of 1.8 - 4.0°C with a possible range of 1.1 - 6.4°C by 2100 – indicating a catastrophic corresponding rise in sea levels in the range 22 – 128 metres. • Many glaciers are now flowing at up to eight times faster than only a decade ago – due to summer liquid water pooling at the surface, filtering down cracks and crevices and lubricating flow at the base. Additionally, melting of the arctic tundra permafrost in Siberia is contributing vast amounts of additional fresh water into the Arctic Sea.
  • 49. EA-envision Sea Level Rising - Future • In Antarctica, however, average summer temperatures are now rising at six to eight times faster than the global average – about 0.5 °C per decade since the late 1940s - massively increasing the rate of summer ice loss. Current studies indicate an acceleration of climate warming towards a predicted two degrees centigrade increase in average global temperature by 2100 – predicating a corresponding 40metre rise in sea level by the end of the century – causing global flooding over the world’s coastline and huge loss of large areas of existing land. • In 1995 Larsen Ice Shelf A disintegrated. In 2002, however, the whole of the Larsen Ice Shelf B disappeared in just a few weeks – an area the size of Rhode Island in the USA. The mechanism is thought to be summer liquid water pooling at the surface, filtering down cracks and crevices and subsequently re-freezing – shattering the ice sheet • Should the Greenland Ice Cap disappear, then global sea levels will rise by 7 meters – flooding large parts of the world’s coastal cities, harbours, and all low- lying coastline, estuaries, deltas and archipelagos. The loss of the Antarctic Ice Cap would increase sea levels by a further 130 meters – loosing up to 90km from the existing coastline, displacing over one-third of world’s population, drowning most of the worlds capital cities and washing away much of the world’s most productive and intensively cultivated agricultural land.
  • 50. EA-envision Greenhouse Gases • We have learned - from the continuing work on the analysis of ice-cores by the British Antarctic Survey - that levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, are at their highest point at any time during the last 700,000 years. • Current levels of atmospheric CO2 have risen to 430ppm (up 150ppm from 280ppm at the start of the industrial revolution). Furthermore, the global rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 is higher than at any time in the last 20,000 years and continues to rise exponentially (Professor Richard Alley, Penn State University). It is widely agreed that when CO2 levels exceed 500ppm then the tipping point of irreversible climate change will be surpassed – therefore catastrophic environmental degradation will become inevitable – disrupting agriculture and fisheries with the consequent loss of up to 90 per cent of human population through scarcity of resources, war, famine and disease. • If there is no amelioration in the acceleration of CO2 emissions, then this figure will increase to 750ppm by the end of this century - which would represent higher CO2 levels than those prevalent at any time during the last 30 million years. • Scientists are now looking at what needs to be done to mitigate and adapt to these challenging conditions as the rate of change in greenhouse gases settles down at the new, higher predicted rates. Their emphasis is on building better climate models linking the Milankovitch Cycles (changes in earth orbit, axial tilt and axial wobble) together with average global temperature, atmospheric CO2 and sea level changes. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 51. Climate Models EA-envision • Due to the enormous complexity of the atmosphere, the most useful tools for gauging future changes are 'climate models'. These are computer-based mathematical models which simulate, in three dimensions, the climate's behaviour, its components and their interactions. Climate models are constantly improving based on both our understanding and the increase in computer power, though by definition, a computer model is a simplification and simulation of reality, meaning that it is an approximation of the climate system. The first step in any modelled projection of climate change is to first simulate the present climate and compare it to observations. If the model is considered to do a good job at representing modern climate, then certain parameters can be changed, such as the concentration of greenhouse gases, which helps us understand how the climate would change in response. Projections of future climate change therefore depend on how well the computer climate model simulates the climate and on our understanding of how forcing functions will change in the future. • According to the range of possible forcing scenarios, and taking into account uncertainty in climate model performance, the IPCC projects a best estimate of global temperature increase of 1.8 - 4.0°C with a possible range of 1.1 - 6.4°C by 2100, depending on which emissions scenario is used. However, this global average will integrate widely varying regional responses, such as the likelihood that land areas will warm much faster than ocean temperatures, particularly those land areas in northern high latitudes (and mostly in the cold season). In Antarctica, however, average summer temperatures are rising – with increased ice loss. Globally, it is very likely that - as a result of increased climatic energy - storms, floods, heat waves, drought and other climatic extremes will increase. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 52. Climate Models National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  • 53. Climate Models • Paleoclimatic data sets are critical for enabling us to extend our knowledge of climatic variability beyond what is measured by modern instruments. • Many natural phenomena are climate dependent (such as the growth rate of a tree for example), and as such, provide natural 'archives' of climate information. Some useful paleoclimate data can be found in sources as diverse as tree rings, ice cores, corals, lake sediments (including fossil insects and pollen data), speleothems (stalactites etc), and ocean sediments. • Some of these, including ice cores and tree rings, are able to provide us also with an annual chronology due to the nature of how they are formed, and so high resolution climate reconstruction is possible. • In these cases. however, there is no continuous, comprehensive or complete 'network' of paleoclimate data as there is with instrumental coverage - so global climate reconstructions are often difficult to obtain. Nevertheless, combining different types of paleoclimate records enables us to gain a near- global picture of climate changes in the distant past.
  • 54. Climate Models Paleoclimatic data sets are critical for enabling us to extend our knowledge of climatic variability beyond what is measured by modern instruments. Many natural phenomena are climate dependent (such as the growth rate of a tree for example), and as such, provide natural 'archives' of climate information. Paleoclimate data may be found in sources as diverse as tree rings, ice cores, corals, lake sediments (including fossil insects and pollen data), speleothems (stalactites etc), and ocean sediments.
  • 55. Climate Models • For Northern Hemisphere temperature, recent decades appear to be the warmest since at least about 1000AD, and the warming since the late 19th century is unprecedented over the last 1000 years. Older data sets are insufficient to provide reliable hemispheric temperature estimates. Ice core data suggest that the 20th century has been warm in many parts of the globe, but also that the significance of the warming varies geographically, when viewed in the context of climate variations of the last millennium. • Large and rapid climatic changes affecting the atmospheric and oceanic circulation and temperature, and the hydrological cycle, occurred during the last ice age and during the transition towards the present Holocene period (which began about 10,000 years ago). Based on the incomplete evidence available, the projected change of 3 to 7°F (1.5 - 4°C) over the next century would be unprecedented in comparison with the best available records from the last several thousand years. • The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios determines the range of future possible greenhouse gas concentrations (and other forcings) based on considerations such as population growth, economic growth, energy efficiency and a host of other factors. This leads a wide range of possible forcing scenarios, and consequently a wide range of possible future climates.
  • 56. EA-envision Sustainability • Sustainability is a characteristic of a process or state that can be maintained at a certain level indefinitely. The term, in its environmental usage, refers to the potential longevity of vital human ecological support systems, such as the planet's climatic system, systems of agriculture, industry, forestry, fisheries, and the systems on which they depend. In recent years, public discourse has led to a use of "sustainability" in reference to how long human ecological systems can be expected to be usefully productive. In the past, complex human societies have died out, sometimes as a result of their own growth-associated impacts on ecological support systems. The implication is that modern industrial society, which continues to grow in scale and complexity, will also collapse. • The implied preference would be for systems to be productive indefinitely, or be "sustainable." For example, "sustainable agriculture" would develop agricultural systems to last indefinitely; "sustainable development" can be a development of economic systems that last indefinitely, etc. A side discourse relates the term sustainability to longevity of natural ecosystems and reserves (set aside for other-than-human species), but the challenging emphasis has been on human systems and anthropogenic problems, such as anthropogenic climate change, or the depletion of fossil fuel reserves. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 57. EA-envision Renewable Resources • A natural resource is a renewable resource if it is replenished by natural processes at a rate comparable or faster than its rate of consumption by humans or other users. Solar radiation, tides, winds and hydroelectricity are perpetual resources that are not in danger of being consumed at a rate in excess of their long-term availability or renewal. • The term renewable resource also has the implication of sustainability of handling and absorption of waste products by the natural environment. • Nuclear Fission supports Low Carbon Generation but carries with it problems of both renewability and sustainability. Nuclear Fusion is both renewable and sustainable. • Some natural renewable resources such as geothermal, fresh water, timber, and biomass must be carefully managed to avoid exceeding the environment's capacity to replenish them. A life cycle assessment provides a systematic evaluation of renewability. • Petroleum, coal, natural gas, diesel, are commodities derived from fossil fuels and are non-renewable. Unlike fossil fuels, a renewable resource can have a sustainable yield. • Renewable resources may also mean commodities such as wood, paper, and leather. • Solar power is the energy derived directly from the Sun. It is the most abundant source of energy on Earth. It is captured by photovoltaic cells, or by using sunlight to heat water. The Sun ignited about 4.6 billion years ago and will continue for another 5 billion years. • Wind power is derived from uneven heating of the Earth's surface from the Sun and the warm core. Most modern wind power is generated in the form of electricity by converting the rotation of turbine blades into electrical current by means of an electrical generator. In windmills (a much older technology) wind energy is used to turn mechanical machinery to do physical work, like crushing grain or pumping water. • Hydropower, energy derived from the movement of water in rivers and oceans (or other energy differentials), can likewise be used to generate electricity using turbines, or can be used mechanically to do useful work. It is a very common resource.
  • 58. Combined heat and power (CHP) • What is CHP? • Who is it suitable for? • Combined heat and power (CHP), also • CHP can be used throughout the known as co-generation, is the commercial, industrial and public sectors. generation and exploitation of both Larger, tailor-made systems are particularly heat and power (usually in the form of suited to applications where there is a high electricity) from the same equipment heat demand, such as hospitals, leisure set, in the same place, at the same centres, hotels and industrial sites with time. process heating requirements (especially chemical, brewing and paper industries). • Not only does CHP enable the conversion of a high proportion of • Some industrial processes which use hot otherwise waste heat to usable heat, water or steam are suited to small scale but it is very efficient because power is (<1MW) CHP, including the following generated close to where it is being sectors: chemicals; textiles and leather; used (and thus electricity transmission food and drink; rubber and plastics; losses are minimised). The engineering; and agriculture/horticulture. predominant fuel used for CHP schemes is natural gas (62% in 2000). • For a site to support a successful CHP Other fuels include oil, coal or even installation, it should typically have a heat renewables (such as municipal and and power requirement for at least 4,500 industrial waste, sewage gases, hours/year (although it could be cost- biogases, from anaerobic digestion, effective with fewer operating hours). biodiesel, gasification etc and wood). Generally, the greater the annual period of demand, then the greater the benefits…..
  • 59. Combined heat and power (CHP) • How does CHP work? • In its simplest form a CHP system comprises a gas turbine, engine or steam turbine to drive an alternator. • The resulting electricity is used primarily on-site. The waste heat, in the form of steam or hot water, is collected and can be used to provide heat for industrial processes, for community heating and for space heating. It can also provide cooling - using advanced absorption cooling technology. • Systems vary considerable in size, from micro turbines (<50 kW) to many MW of electrical output
  • 60. Petroleum Reservoir Simulation and Exploitation Petroleum Reservoir depletion may take place over periods up to and exceeding 30 years….. • Reservoir Simulation • Reservoir Exploitation – The Grid System – Economic Modelling for Oil & Gas – The Well Model Production – Conservation Equations – Geological Science – Geological Mapping, Log Data – Transient Well Logging and Spatial Analysis – Open Hole Logging – Reservoir Modelling and – Production Logging Typological Characterization – Subsurface Reservoir Geology • Aquifers – Exploration Geophysics • Salt Domes – Reservoir Mapping – Model Initialization – Reservoir Modelling • Prediction Runs • History Matching – Heavy Oil Technology – Exploitation Modelling – Enhanced Oil and Gas Recovery • Depletion Options • Water flooding – Reservoir Analysis • Extraction Rates – Recovery Prediction • Recovery Extents – Injection Design – Enhanced Recovery Techniques • Gas displacement • Water Injection – Reservoir Analysis • Gas Injection – Recovery Prediction – Injection Design Typical Petroleum Recovery was 35% until Enhanced Recovery Techniques drove up to and over 65%…..
  • 61. Petroleum Reservoir Modelling and Simulation
  • 62. Petroleum Reservoir Modelling and Simulation
  • 63. Visions Of The Future EA-envision • Leading theoretical physicist and futurist Dr Michio Kaku explores the cutting edge science of today, tomorrow, and beyond. He argues that the human race is at a tipping point in its history. In this century, we are going to make the historic transition from the 'Age of Discovery' to the 'Age of Mastery', a period in which humans move from being passive observers of nature to its active choreographers - where human impact dominates climate, the environment, ecology and geology. This will give us not only unparalleled opportunities but also great responsibilities - with the possibility of both utopian and dystopian future outcomes. • 1. The Intelligence Revolution Kaku explains how artificial intelligence will revolutionise homes, workplaces and lifestyles, and how virtual worlds will become so realistic that they will rival the physical world. Robots with human-level intelligence may finally become a reality, and in the ultimate stage of mastery, we'll even be able to merge our minds with machine intelligence – man-machine. • 2. The Biotech Revolution Genetics and biotechnology promise a future of unprecedented health and longevity: DNA screening could prevent many diseases, gene therapy could cure them and, thanks to lab- grown organs, the human body could be repaired as easily as a car, with spare parts readily available. Ultimately, the ageing process itself could be slowed or even halted. • 3. The Quantum Revolution The quantum revolution could turn many ideas of science fiction into science fact - from meta- materials with mind-boggling properties like invisibility through limitless quantum energy and room temperature superconductors to Arthur C Clarke's space elevator. Some scientists even forecast that in the latter half of the century everybody will have a personal fabricator that re- arranges molecules to produce everything from almost anything. Yet how will we ultimately use our mastery of matter? Like Samson, will we use our strength to bring down the temple? Or, like Solomon, will we have the wisdom to match our technology?
  • 64. TRANSHUMANISM 2.0 Transhumanism 2.0 Natasha Vita-More Cultural Strategist
  • 65. History Trans-humanism – advocates the ethical use of technology to expand the human capacity for performance, supporting the use of future science and technology to enhance human capabilities and qualities – and to overcome undesirable and unnecessary aspects of the present human condition. 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Trans-humanism – arose out of an inspirational dream that a handful of unrelated forward thinkers shared and came together to realize. Transhumanism, like other cultures of society, grew into the global culture it is today. But what is the projected or expected state of transhumanism, and what will be the defining lines that will determine if it will or can become a powerful driving force of the future? Natasha Vita-More - Cultural Strategist
  • 66. Transhumanism — History Cultural Evolution “transhuman” is used by FM Transhumans in LA Transhuman Arts Statement Breakthroughs – TransCentury Transhuman Update airs Early 1980s Term “Extropy” is created Terms “Transhumanist and Mid 1980s “Transhumanism” are used Late 1980s Extropy: Journal of Transhumanist Thought emerges Early 1990s Extropy Institute develops Mid 1990s Extropians email list develops Extro Conferences are held Late 1990s Aleph develops transhumanist Resources in Sweden Transhumanist FAQ written “Introduction to Transhumanism” written Transcedo develops in Netherlands TransVision Conference is held De:Trans develops in Germany WTA develops
  • 67. What is the projected or expected state of transhumanism, and what will be the defining lines that will determine if it will or can become a powerful driving force of the future? Sustainable Transhumanism Probable future Current Actions situation necessary Possible future Natasha Vita-More - Cultural Strategist
  • 68. Futures Studies Foresight – Strategy & Planning – Future Landscape – Advisory Consulting EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework Changement est vieux comme le monde….. changement est aussi vieux que le temps.
  • 69. Quantitative v. Qualitative Future Methods Challenges in Applying Qualitative Future Methods Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures • Challenges in Applying Qualitative Future Methods • Positivists versus Futurists – a dichotomy • Strategists versus Scientists – research roles • Overview of Applied Future Studies – Key Components – Common Research Tools • Common Research Design Challenges – Choices - decision making & options selection – Common misunderstanding in the evaluation and selection of the methods available – Problems with method application & execution – Errors in interpretation & communication – Flaws in analysis & reporting Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures
  • 70. Positivists versus Futurists – design differences Challenges in Applying Qualitative Future Methods Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures • Theory Formation v. Futures Articulation • Reductionism v. Systemic and Holistic • Experimental v. Descriptive • Linear Systems v. Complex and Chaotic Systems • Predictive v. Exploratory • Repeatable Results v. Insights • Hard Facts v. Soft Alternatives • Value Neutral v. Value Driven Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures
  • 71. Strategists versus Scientists – research roles Strategists Scientists Positivist – articulating a single, preferred Futurist – assessing possible, probable and vision of the future. The future will conform to alternative futures offering those conditions preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal which best fit our strategic goals / objectives future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled. for achieving a preferred future. We select those futures which best support our desired • Objective v. Subjective outcomes, goals and objectives for further • Observation v. Facilitation / Participation and more detailed analysis and investigation. • Knowledge Revelation v. Change Agent • Reporting v. Performing • Future Studies assumes that the objective of exploring multiple possible outcomes is to help people create the futures that they desire: - active, value-focussed research Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures
  • 72. Possible Futures and Alternative Futures….. Challenges in Applying Qualitative Future Methods Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures • Firstly, assessing the probability of any given image of the future actually occurring must of necessity be an ongoing process: as trends and emerging issues of change • Alternative Possibilities grow, transform, plateau, and collapse over time, the probability of a possible outcome, or possible future, may vary over time. • Reality is non-liner – that is, chaotic – Hence the need for ongoing identification and thus it is impossible to predict and monitoring of the indicators of change. • Possible Futures emerge from the • Secondly, evaluating any given image of interplay of current trends and the future as aligning more or less closely emerging factors of change with the enterprise mission and vision statement is important in assessing which • This, again, articulates an exaggerated futures offer conditions that best fit strategic perspective to make the point that the goals and objectives in achieving a desired interrelationship between linear and outcome – a preferred future (Futurism) – non-linear systems demonstrates the however, that evaluation of a possible set of case that future reality is generated by future conditions as preferable is NOT THE the interaction of uncertainty with the SAME ACTIVITY as articulating a preferred present set of conditions and trends vision of the future (Positivism).
  • 73. Futurists versus Positivists – summary of differences between Quantitative and Qualitative Future Methods • Futurists • Positivists – Quantitative – Qualitative – Analytic – Visionary – Objective – Subjective – Observation – Facilitation / Participation – Hypothesis Formation – Futures Articulation – Predictive – Exploratory – Theory Construction – Outcome Anticipation – Experimental – Descriptive – Complex / Chaotic Systems – Linear Systems – Repeatable Results – Insights – Model Driven – Intuitive – Hard Facts – Soft Alternatives – Reporting – Performing – Knowledge Revelation – Change Agent – Value Neutral – Value Driven – Reductionism – Systemic and Holistic Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures
  • 74. Quantitative v. Qualitative Futures Framework Primary Futures Disciplines (27) Secondary Futures Specialties (27) Future Foundations and Foresight Frameworks Probabilistic (Statistical) Prediction Planning and Strategy (foundation & advanced) Forecasting and Modelling (foundation and advanced) Ethnographic / Demographic Futures Geo-demographic Profiling and Actuarial Science Strategic Foresight Threat Assessment and Risk Management Scenario Analysis Scenario Development and Back-casting Market Analysis and Prediction Corporate Finance and Long-Term / Strategic Investment Environmental / Horizon Scanning Geography, Sociology, Demographics and Social Change Pattern Analysis and Extrapolation Urban and Long-Range Infrastructure Planning Science and Technology Futures Studies Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies Systems and Technology Trends Analysis Cross Impact and Pattern Analysis Environment, Ecology and Sustainability Studies Future Landscape Envisioning. Planning and Mapping Emerging Issues / Technology Trends Analysis Preferential Surveys / Polls and Market Research Knowledge Management and Decision Support Collaboration, Facilitation Strategic Foresight Intuition and Pre-cognition Development and Acceleration Studies Linear Systems Studies Massive Change Complex Systems, Chaos Theory, Human Impact Futures Studies History and Analysis of Prediction Alternative Futures Critical and Evidence-Based Thinking Critical Futures and Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Peace / Conflict Studies Cognitive and Positive Psychology Personal Futures / Foresight Development Foresight, Intuition and Pre-cognition Predictive Surveys / Delphi Oracle Political Science and Policy Studies Leadership Studies, Religious Studies (Future Beliefs) Ethics of Emerging Technology Studies Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Management Sociology, Philosophy and Evolution Studies Trans-humanism, Ethics and Values Studies Integral Studies and Future Thinking Weak Signals and Wildcards Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity Utopian and Dystopian Literature, Film & Arts Bio-Technology and Quantum Science Science Fiction and Images of the Future
  • 75. Peter Bishop and Andy Hines – University of Houston 'Thinking About The Future' Peter Bishop and Andy Hines “Time present and time past are both perhaps contained in time future and time future contained in time past…..” T. S. Elliott
  • 76. 'Thinking About The Future‘ Thinking About the Future Framework • 1. Framing: This important first step enables organizations to define the scope and focus of problems requiring strategic foresight. By taking time at the outset of a project, the team analyzing a problem can clarify the objective and determine how best to address it. • 2. Scanning: Once the team is clear about the boundaries and scope of an activity, it can scan the internal and external environments for relevant information and trends. • 3. Forecasting: Most organizations, if not challenged, tend to believe the future is going to be pretty much like the past. When the team probes the organization’s view of the future, they usually find an array of unexamined assumptions that tend to converge around incremental changes. • The task, then, is to challenge this view and prod the organization to think seriously about the possibility that things may not continue as they have—and in fact, rarely do. Considering a range of potential futures is the only sure-fire way to develop robust strategies that will position the organization securely for any future that may occur. • 4. Visioning: After forecasting has laid out a range of potential futures, visioning comes into play—generating the organization’s ideal or “preferred” future and starting to suggest stretch goals for moving toward it. • 5. Planning: This is the bridge between the vision and the action. Here, the team translates what could be into strategies and tactics that will lead toward the preferred future. • 6. Acting: This final phase is largely about communicating results, developing action agendas, and institutionalizing strategic thinking and intelligence systems, so the organization can nimbly and continually respond to the changing external environment. Peter Bishop and Andy Hines – University of Houston
  • 77. executives and analysts Thinking About the Future • How executives and analysts can use the Thinking About the Future Framework – Design strategic foresight projects – Develop robust strategies that can stand up to a wide range of possible, plausible, probable and preferred future outcomes – Find how-to answers to specific tasks – Provide a refresher for experienced practitioners – Adopt guidelines for excellence as an organization Peter Bishop and Andy Hines – University of Houston
  • 78. trainers and educators Thinking About the Future • How trainers and educators can use the Thinking About the Future Framework – Examine the important tenets of futurist theory and research – Understand how futurist thinking can powerfully strengthen an organization’s strategic thinking and acting on a day-to-day basis – Obtain a strong intellectual foundation preparing for careers in corporate foresight, strategy, planning or management consulting – Interact with analysts and role play strategic futures in order to challenge, influence, modify or corroborate their own assumptions Peter Bishop and Andy Hines – University of Houston
  • 79. The Future is….. now! Shaping the Future….. The future is assumed to be “creatable” which implies that we all have choices to make which influence future outcomes. The future is assumed to be “achievable” which implies that we need the appropriate resources and capabilities to deliver the future vision. The future is assumed to be “predictable” which implies that we have to be clear about those factors that we can understand, model, influence and predict – and those factors with unseen or hidden influences. The future is assumed to be “viewable” which implies that we need foresight and vision to look into the future. Finally, just as the past has influenced the present - the past is the key to the future. This implies that we need a historic perspective in order to be able to analyse and extrapolate future patterns and trends. “Time present and time past are both perhaps contained in time future and time future contained in time past…..” T. S. Elliott
  • 80. Stakeholder Communities….. Foresight Stakeholders Regulators and Legislators Sponsors and Investors Entrepreneurs and Innovators Domain Specialists Subject Matter Experts Professional Practitioners Consultants and Advisors Planners and Strategists Architects and Designers Project Managers and Developers Everyone….. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 81. Plan Ahead Enterprises need to take on people and resources for foresight projects : - Business Transformation Technology & Project Portfolio Management Human Resources Management We need a strategic plan to realize the vision of the future state: - Vision and Mission Statements Strategies and Outcomes Goals and Objectives Strategic Drivers, Requirements and Constraints: - We need a set of strategic priorities to commit the vision into action: - Business Transformation and Change Programmes Project Portfolio Management Technology Enablers and “Quick Wins” We need Enterprise Performance Management to monitor our efforts: - Critical Success Factors to indicate our successes Key Performance Indicators to check our performance Balanced Scorecard to demonstrate our achievement EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 82. How Can We Think Ahead? Some Foresight Techniques….. Trend Analysis: – the systematic collection of data representing trends for everything that is happening in the world around us today. Precursor analysis: – analysis of events as they unfold and develop over time - emergence, growth, transformation, plateau, maturity and collapse - from the past, through the present and on into the future. Scenario analysis: – time series of possible and plausible scenarios representing probable trends or events that could occur in the future. Game theory: – a branch of applied mathematics also used in the arts and social sciences (political science, philosophy and economics), in biology and evolution, computer modelliing & cybernetics and in military science. Also, see the related subject - Lanchester theory. Strategic Foresight – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are described and defined via Strategic Envisioning and the future is determined by design, planning and management - so that the future becomes realistic, attainable and achievable. Thus the future will conform to our preferred options - and our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled Massive Global Change: – Massive Global Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It encompasses both utopian and dystopian possibilities of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment, ecology and geology are massively dominated by human intervention and manipulation. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 83. Five ways in which we can envision the future….. Strategic – The future is creatable, planned & governed by the aspirations, actions, goals and beliefs of key individuals, organizations and institutions shaping the future. Assumptive – The probable future will reflect our current designs and assumptions - thus by replication and continuation of the past, realising our predicted future state. Opportunistic – The future world state will emerge from a series of random and unpredictable actions and events under conditions of severe competition for scarce resources - so that future outcomes tend to favour the fittest and the most brave , the most competitive, the best prepared - and the most versatile, flexible and adaptive. Visionary – Future outcomes, goals and objectives may be envisioned as: - Positivist – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will conform to our preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled. Future strategy is designed, planned and managed. Futurist – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures offering those conditions which best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving our preferred future. Selecting those futures which best support our desired vision, outcomes, goals and objectives for further more detailed analysis / investigation. Surprising – The future will be shaped by an inexorable amalgam of complex trends, random actions, erratic responses and unpredictable events, thus the future is volatile and enigmatic - and it will be amazing…..
  • 84. The Eltville Model
  • 85. Future Factors
  • 86. Five ways that we can predict the future….. Goal Analysis – The future will be governed by the beliefs, objectives, goals and orchestrated actions of various influential, and coordinated key individuals, groups, organizations and institutions - thus can be predicted by the analysis of such groups. Extrapolation and Pattern Analysis – The past is the key to the future – the future will develop as a logical extension and extrapolation of historic events and trends. As the future unfolds it is an extension of the past – so represents a replication and continuation of historic events, patterns, cycles and trends. Adaptation – The future will evolve from a series of events and actions that, as they emerge, unfold and develop - are essentially responses to competitive pressure, massive global change and population growth with increasing scarcity of resources. Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via Strategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and management - so the future becomes realistic and achievable. The future may comply with preferred options - and thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes may be fulfilled. Intuition – The future may be implied via an intuitive assimilation and cognitive filtering of inexorable trends, random and chaotic actions and unpredictable events – however, the future is still largely volatile, indeterminate, uncertain and enigmatic. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 87. EA-envision Goal Analysts • Goal Analysts (e.g. the Club of Rome, Aspen Institute) believe that the future will be determined by the beliefs and actions of various individuals, organizations, and institutions. • The future is, therefore, susceptible to modification and change by these entities. Thus, the future can best be projected by examining the stated and implied goals of various decision-makers and trend setters, by evaluating the extent to which each can affect future trends and events, and by evaluating what the long-term results of their actions will become. “Il ne faut jamais sortie la bateau” EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 88. How Can We Think Ahead? Goal Analysis Techniques Impact Analysis : – provides a simple, formal method for taking into account the fact that, in a complex society such as ours, trends, events, and decisions often have consequences that are neither intended nor foreseen. Content Analysis : – is founded on the concept that the relative importance of social, political, commercial and economic issues are reflected by the amount of media attention the issue receives . Stakeholders' Analysis : – is a formal method for taking account of the influence that various individuals and institutions can have on the way the future develops. It explicitly identifies those people and organizations . Patent Analysis – is based on the presumption that increased interest in new technologies, together with conviction of their practicality and appeal, will be reflected in increased R&D activity EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 89. Goal Analysts • Goal Analysts (e.g. the Club of Rome, Aspen Institute) believe that the future will be determined by the beliefs and actions of various individuals, organizations, and institutions. • The future is, therefore, susceptible to modification and change by these entities. Thus, the future can best be projected by examining the stated and implied goals of various decision-makers and trend setters, by evaluating the extent to which each can affect future trends and events, and by evaluating what the long-term results of their actions will become. • Impact Analysis provides a simple, formal method for taking into account the fact that, in a complex society such as ours, trends, events, and decisions often have consequences that are neither intended nor foreseen. The technique combines the use of left brain and right brain thinking to project the secondary, tertiary, and higher order impacts and implications of such occurrences. Results are qualitative in nature, and the technique is often used to analyze potential consequences of projected technical advances or to determine areas in which forecasting efforts could best be directed. • Content Analysis is founded on the concept that the relative importance of social, political, commercial and economic issues are reflected by the amount of media attention the issue receives. Thus, by measuring, over time, changes in such factors as column- inches in newspapers, time allocated on television, and, more recently, number of items on the Internet, forecasters can project the direction, nature, and rate of change. In the technical arena, this technique can, to some degree, be used to project advances in new technologies, as well as growing market attraction. The results of use of this technique are often displayed in a quantitative format. However, they are typically used only for qualitative analysis.
  • 90. Goal Analysts • Goal Analysts (e.g. the Club of Rome, Aspen Institute) believe that the future will be determined by the beliefs and actions of various key individuals, organizations, and institutions. • The future is, therefore, susceptible to modification and change by these entities. Thus, the future can best be projected by examining the stated and implied goals of various decision-makers and trend setters, by evaluating the extent to which each can affect future trends and events, and by evaluating what the long-term results of their actions will become. • Stakeholders' Analysis is a formal method for taking account of the influence that various individuals and institutions can have on the way the future develops. It explicitly identifies those people and organizations, internal and external, that have a "stake" in particular decisions, projects, or programs; analyzes the importance that each individual or group assign to these issues; and the relative influence that they may have on developments. The results from this technique are normally semi- quantitative. The technique is often used to test the validity of forecasts that might be impacted by unexpected opposition or support. • Patent Analysis is based on the presumption that increased interest in new technologies, together with conviction of their practicality and appeal, will be reflected in increased R&D activity, and that this, in turn, will be reflected by increased patent activity. Thus, it is presumed that one can both identify new technology opportunities and assess the state of development of given technologies by analyzing the pattern of patent application in appropriate fields. Results from the application are often presented in quantified terms; however, their use in decision-making is normally based on a qualitative evaluation.
  • 91. Extrapolators EA-envision • Extrapolation - the future will represent a logical extension of the past • Extrapolators believe that the future will represent a logical extension of the past. Large scale, inexorable forces will drive the future in a continuous, reasonably predictable manner, and one can, therefore, best forecast the future by identifying past trends and extrapolating them in a reasoned and logical manner. • Massive Global Change – Massive Global Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It encompasses both utopian and dystopian possibilities of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment and geology are dominated by human manipulation: - – Human impact is now the major factor in climate change. – Species Extinction rate is now greater than in the late Permian mass extinction event – in which 90% of all species were eliminated – Man now moves more rock and earth than geological processes. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 92. How Can We Think Ahead? Extrapolation Techniques Technology Trend Analysis – is based on the observation that advances in technologies tend to follow an exponential improvement process Fisher-Pry Analysis – is a mathematical technique used to project the rate of market adoption of superior new technologies Gompertz Analysis – is very similar in concept to Fisher-Pry Analysis, except that it better models adoptions that are driven by the desirability, attractiveness and superiority of the new technology Growth Limit Analysis – utilizes a mathematical formulation known as the Pearl Curve to project the pattern in which maturing technologies will approach development limits Learning Curve techniques – are based on the fact that, as more and more items of a given type are produced, the price of production tends to decrease at a predictable rate EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 93. Extrapolators • Extrapolation - the future will represent a logical extension of the past • Extrapolators believe that the future will represent a logical extension of the past. Large scale, inexorable forces will drive the future in a continuous, reasonably predictable manner, and one can, therefore, best forecast the future by identifying past trends and extrapolating them in a reasoned, logical manner. • Technology Trend Analysis is based on the observation that advances in technologies tend to follow an exponential improvement process. The technique uses early improvement data to establish the rate of progress and extrapolates that rate to project the level of progress at various times in the future. Results produced by this technique are typically highly quantitative. In practice, this technique is typically used to forecast developments such as the speed of operation, level of performance, cost reduction, improved quality, and operating efficiency. • Fisher-Pry Analysis is a mathematical technique used to project the rate of market adoption of technically superior new technologies and, when appropriate, to project the loss of market share by old technologies. The technique is based on the fact that the adoption of such new technologies normally follows a pattern known by mathematicians as the "Logistic Curve." This adoption pattern is defined by two parameters. One of these parameters determines the time at which adoption begins, and the other determines the rate at which adoption will occur. These parameters can be determined from early adoption data, and the resulting pattern can be used to project the time at which market takeover will reach any given level. Results produced by this technique are highly quantitative. The technique is used to make forecasts such as how the installed base of telecommunications equipment will change over time, how rapidly a new chemical production process will be adopted, and the rate at which digital measuring devices will replace analog devices in petroleum refineries, etc.
  • 94. Extrapolators • Extrapolation - the future will represent a logical extension of the past • Gompertz Analysis is very similar in concept to Fisher-Pry Analysis, except that it better models adoptions that are driven by the technical superiority of the new technology. However, customers do not suffer any significant penalty for not adopting the new technology at any given time. Like Fisher-Pry analysis, Gompertz analysis projects adoption by use of a two parameter mathematical model. In similar manner, early adoption is used to determine these parameters and the resulting adoption curve. Results are highly quantitative, and the technique is often used to project adoption of consumer products such as high-definition television, camcorders, new automobile features, etc. • Growth Limit Analysis utilizes a mathematical formulation known as the Pearl Curve to project the pattern in which maturing technologies will approach development limits. This can often be useful to organizations in analyzing maturing technologies, in setting feasible research goals, and in determining the utility of additional development spending. The technique can also be useful in determining if new technical approaches can be used to overcome apparent technical limits. • Learning Curve techniques are based on the fact that, as more and more items of a given type are produced, the price of production tends to decrease at a predictable rate. For example, each doubling of the total number of a particular items produced might result in a cost reduction of 15%. In some cases, key technical parameters may improve in a similar pattern. The learning curve phenomenon is reflected as a straight line on log-log graph paper which makes projection relatively simple. Results from the use of this are highly quantitative. The technique can be used for setting price and technical performance targets for developing technologies, particularly in the middle stages of their development.
  • 95. Pattern Analysts EA-envision • Pattern Analysis – the future will reflect a replication of past events • Pattern Analysts believe that the future will reflect a replication of past events. Powerful feedback mechanisms in our society, together with basic human drives, will cause future trends and events to occur in identifiable cycles and predictable patterns. Thus, one can best address the future by identifying and analyzing analogous situations from the past and relating them to probable futures. L’arbour du vie EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 96. How Can We Think Ahead? Pattern Analysis Techniques Analogy Analysis – is based on the observation that the patterns of technical development and market capture for new technologies are often similar to those for like technologies in the past Precursor Trend Analysis – takes advantage of the fact that, often, the development of one technology lags by a constant period the development of another related one. Morphological Matrices – provide a formal method for uncovering new product and process possibilities – functionality, desirability, attractiveness and superiority of the new technology Feedback Models – provide a means for accounting for the interactions that will connect technical, economic, market, societal, and economic factors as the future unfolds. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 97. Pattern Analysts • Pattern Analysis – the future will reflect a replication of past events • Pattern Analysts believe that the future will reflect a replication of past events. Powerful feedback mechanisms in our society, together with basic human drives, will cause future trends and events to occur in identifiable cycles and predictable patterns. Thus, one can best address the future by identifying and analyzing analogous situations from the past and relating them to probable futures. • Analogy Analysis is based on the observation that the patterns of technical development and market capture for new technologies are often similar to those for like technologies in the past. In applying this technique, forecasters identify appropriate analogies and analyze similarities and differences. Normally, it is desirable to identify more than one applicable example in order to minimize the probability of selecting false or inappropriate analogies. The results from application of this technique are typically semi-quantitative in nature, and are often presented as a range of possibilities rather than a single projection. • Precursor Trend Analysis takes advantage of the fact that, often, the development of one technology lags by a constant period the development of another related one. For example, the first application of technical advances in passenger cars typically occurs approximately four years after their application in race cars. Similarly, the application of new technologies in commercial products tend to follow laboratory demonstration by a relatively constant period. One can, thus, project the status of the lag technology at some future date by observing the status of the lead technology today. This technique also allows the extension of lag technology forecasts by building on forecasts of lead technologies. Results from using this technique are highly quantitative.
  • 98. Pattern Analysts • Pattern Analysis – the future will reflect a replication of past events • Pattern Analysts believe that the future will reflect a replication of past events. Powerful feedback mechanisms in our society, together with basic human drives, will cause future trends and events to occur in identifiable cycles and predictable patterns. Thus, one can best address the future by identifying and analyzing analogous situations from the past and relating them to probable futures. • Morphological Matrices provide a formal method for uncovering new product and process possibilities. In applying this technique, users first determine the essential functions of the product or process. Next, they list the different means by which each of these functions could be satisfied. Finally, they use the matrix to identify new, reasonable combinations of these means that could result in practical new products or processes. Results of the application of this technique are qualitative in nature. The technique can be used to identify non-obvious new opportunities for a company. This technique can also be used to identify products and processes that competitors might be developing or considering. • Feedback Models provide a means for accounting for the interactions that will connect technical, economic, market, societal, and economic factors as the future unfolds. In using this technique computer models are developed that mathematically specify the relationships between each of the relevant factors. For example, advances in technology may result in improved products that may result in increased sales that may provide more funds for further advance in technology. The results of this technique are highly quantitative, but are often used to examine qualitative consequences of trends, events, or decisions. The technique is most commonly used in the formulation of high level strategies or policy.
  • 99. EA-envision Evolutionists Evolutionists - the future will evolve from a sequence of events and actions that are essentially unpredictable and, to a large extent, random. Evolution – The future world state will result from a series of events and actions that, as they emerge, unfold and develop, are essentially adaptive responses to competitive pressure - massive global change and population growth combined with deteriorating climate, environment and ecology and depletion of resources. Adaptive – The future will emerge from a sequence of random, unpredictable actions and events under conditions of severe competition for scarce resources - so that future outcomes tend to favour those who are the fittest and the most brave, the best prepared, the most competitive - the most flexible and adaptable. Evolutionists (e.g. Global Business Network, Institute for the Future) believe that the future will result from a series of events and actions that are essentially unpredictable and, to a large extent, random. Therefore, one can best deal with the future by identifying a wide range of possible trends and events, by carefully monitoring developments in technical, social and political environments, and by maintaining a high degree of flexibility in planning process. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 100. How Can We Think Ahead? Evolutionist Techniques Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking - techniques are founded on the observation that, for most new technologies, a finite, often considerable, amount of time is required to bridge the gap between conception and commercialization. Scanning seeks to identify any trend or event that might impact upon the organization and is, therefore, by design, essentially diffuse and unfocussed. Monitoring is designed to follow identified trends in specific, prioritised areas and is, thus, more focused than scanning. Tracking is designed to carefully follow developments in a limited area and is, consequently, highly focused and targeted. . Alternate Scenarios – this technique provides a structured method for linking and integrating a number of individual forecasts into a series of comprehensive, feasible narratives about how the future might develop and unfold. Monte Carlo Simulation Models - are mathematical models that take explicit account of the fact that projections of future trends and events are, fundamentally, probabilistic in nature. Using this technique, all of the dependant steps involved in the forecasting of a time-sequent commodity demand, supply and traded value curve, or the stages in the development, launch and market take-up of a new technology, are identified and their inter-relationships specified in an iterative computer model.
  • 101. Evolutionists • Evolutionists - the future will result from a series of events and actions that are essentially unpredictable and, to a large extent, random. • Evolutionists (e.g. Global Business Network, Institute for the Future) believe that the future will result from a series of events and actions that are essentially unpredictable and, to a large extent, random. Therefore, one can best deal with the future by identifying a wide range of possible trends and events, by carefully monitoring developments in technology, socio-economic and political environments - and maintaining a high degree of flexibility in the planning process. • Scanning, Monitoring, and Tracking techniques are founded on the observation that, for most new technologies, a finite, often considerable, amount of time is required to bridge the gap between conception and commercialization. Thus, if one is alert, he or she can discern changes in technology, market, and other business factors in time to take maximum advantage of these changes. All three techniques are employed to identify and evaluate developments that might materially impact the organization's operations and strategies. Although the three techniques are similar in many respects, they differ in purpose, methodology, and degree of focus. – Scanning seeks to identify any trend or event that might impact the organization and is, therefore, by design, essentially unfocussed. – Monitoring is designed to follow general trends in specified areas and is, thus, more focused than scanning. – Tracking is designed to carefully follow developments in a limited area and is, consequently, highly focused – Racking and Stacking is designed to carefully analyse developments and group together those developments with similar characteristics, profiles or outcomes. – Results from each of these techniques can vary between highly quantitative to basically qualitative. However, in general terms, results are less quantitative in scanning activities and more quantitative in tracking activities. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 102. Evolutionists • Evolutionists - the future will result from a series of events and actions that are essentially unpredictable and, to a large extent, random. • Evolutionists (e.g. Global Business Network, Institute for the Future) believe that the future will result from a series of events and actions that are essentially unpredictable and, to a large extent, random. Therefore, one can best deal with the future by identifying a wide range of possible trends and events, by carefully monitoring developments in the technical and social environments, and by maintaining a high degree of flexibility in the planning process. • The Alternate Scenarios technique provides a structured method for integrating a number of individual forecasts into a series of comprehensive, feasible narratives about how the future might develop. It provides a vehicle for combining many forecasts in a format that allows decision- makers to effectively relate the implications of the combination of all forecasts. The results from this technique can range from highly quantitative to purely qualitative depending on the objectives of the effort, its organization, and purposes to which it will be put. This technique is typically used to assist executives in critical decision-making. Although a single scenario can be used for making decisions, the use of a series of alternate scenarios allows executives to take account of the fact that the future can never be projected with certainty, and to determine how appropriate flexibility can be built into plans. • Monte Carlo Models are computer models that take explicit account of the fact that all projections of future trends and events are, fundamentally, probabilistic in nature. In this technique, all of the steps involved in the development of a new technology are identified, and their inter-relationships specified in a mathematical model. Numerical values are assigned to the probability of each event occurring in various different ways and to the length of time it will take each event to occur. The model is then run a large number of times to determine the probability of various overall outcomes. The results of the technique are highly quantitative, and the technique can be used to project technology development times and patterns, to allocate resources, and to track the development of emerging technologies. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 103. How Can We Think Ahead? Strategic Foresight Techniques Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via Strategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and management - so that the future becomes realistic and achievable. Possible futures may comply with our preferred options - and therefore our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes could thus be fulfilled. Positivism – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will conform to our preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled. Futurism – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures – selecting those futures offering conditions that best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving a preferred and desired future. Filtering for a more detailed analysis may be achieved by discounting isolated outliers and focusing upon those closely clustered future descriptions which best support our desired future outcomes, goals and objectives. Weak Signals – a subliminal pattern, idea or trend which acts as an indicator that may predicate, influence, impact or affect the environment, how we do business, what business we do, and the environment in which we will work, at some time in the future. Wild Cards – any sudden, major or unforeseen change in either the military, political, social, economic or environmental perspective which threatens either a catastrophic reversal or “Black Swan” event, loss of an important asset or facility – or the presentation of a new, unexpected or significant advantage, gain or opportunity.
  • 104. Strategic Foresight • Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via Strategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and management - so the future becomes realistic and achievable. Possible futures may comply with our preferred options - and therefore our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes could thus be fulfilled. • Strategic Foresight may be executed at many different levels, including: - – Planned and Managed Futures –”Take hold of your future - or the future will take hold of you…..” (Patrick Dixon - Futurewise. 2005) – Pragmatic Foresight - "Carrying out tomorrows' business better" (from Hamel & Prahalad, 2004); – Progressive Foresight - "Going beyond conventional thinking and practices and reformulating processes, products, and services using quite different and novel assumptions"; – Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational ways. For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and to explore new markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures methods with those of strategic management (Slaughter (1999), p.287). – Transhumanist Foresight - "Seeks to understand the social aspects of the next civilisation - which transcends the current human condition, breaking out from the prevailing hegemony of geo- political interests and globalization" (after Slaughter, 2004 and Natasha Vita-Moore). • Positivist – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will conform to preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled. • Futurist – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures – those offering conditions that best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving a preferred future. Selecting those futures for analysis which best support our desired outcomes, goals, objectives.
  • 105. Strategic Foresight Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via Strategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and management - so that the future becomes realistic and achievable. The future may comply with preferred options - and thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes may be fulfilled – Firstly, assessing the probability of any given image of the future actually occurring must of necessity be an ongoing process as patterns and trends, weak signals and wild cards and emerging issues of change grow, transform, plateau, and collapse over time. The probability of any given possible outcome, or parallel future, may vary over the future timeline. Hence the need for continuous and ongoing identification and monitoring of indicators of change. – Secondly, evaluating any given image of the future as aligning more or less closely with the enterprise mission and vision statement is important in assessing those futures which offer conditions that best fit strategic goals and objectives in achieving a desired outcome – a preferred future (Futurism) – however, that evaluation of a possible set of future conditions as preferable is clearly NOT THE SAME ACTIVITY as articulating a single preferred vision of the future (Positivism). • Positivism – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will conform to our preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled. • Futurism – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures – selecting those futures offering conditions that best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving a preferred and desired future. Filtering for a more detailed analysis may be achieved by discounting isolated outliers and focusing upon those closely clustered future descriptions which best support our desired future outcomes, goals and objectives.
  • 106. Strategic Foresight Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via Strategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and management - so that the future becomes realistic and achievable. The future may comply with preferred options - and thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes may be fulfilled Weak Signals – subliminal ideas, patterns or trends that act as an indicator which - at some point in the future – may predict or influence the environmental perspective, predicate how we do business, affect what business we do, and impact the way in which we will work 1. Weak Signals are subliminal ideas, patterns or trends that may affect how we do business, what business we do, and the environment in which we will work in the future 2. Weak Signals may be new and surprising from the signal analyst's vantage point (although other signal analyst's may have already unperceived, failed to recognise or misinterpreted) 3. Weak Signals are sometimes difficult to track down, receive, identify and amplify amid other background noise and stronger signals 4. Weak Signals may represent either a potential threat or opportunity to your organization 5. Weak Signals are often missed, dismissed or scoffed at by other Subject Matter Experts 6. Weak Signals usually have a substantial lag time before they develop, grow, mature, peak and plateau - therefore they potentially represent an early window of opportunity
  • 107. Strategic Foresight Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via Strategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and management - so that the future becomes realistic and achievable. The future may comply with preferred options - and thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes may be fulfilled Wild Cards – any sudden, major or unforeseen change in either the military, political, social, economic or environmental perspective which threatens either a catastrophic reversal or “Black Swan” event, the loss of an important advantage. asset or facility – or the presentation of a new, unexpected or significant advantage, gain or opportunity – Wild Cards have been defined, for example, by Rockfellow (1994: 14), who specified a wild card as "an event having a low probability of occurrence, but an inordinately high impact if it does." – When listing examples of Wild Cards Rockfellow defined concrete premises for wild cards: they become evident by the beginning of the twenty-first century (i.e. within 6 years), the probability of such an event occurring is less than 1 in 10, and the events will likely have high impact on international businesses – Wild Cards are "low-probability, hi-impact events that happen quickly" and "they have huge sweeping consequences." Wild cards, according to Petersen, generally surprise everyone, because they materialize so quickly that the underlying social systems cannot effectively respond to them (Petersen 1999: 4). – According to Cornish (2003: 19), a Wild Card is a surprising, startling event that has important consequences. He continues: "Wild cards have the power to completely upset many things and radically change many people's thinking, planning and actions."
  • 108. Strategic Foresight - Principles and Policies Strategic Foresight Network
  • 109. Strategic Foresight - Principles and Policies Anticipate Strategic Foresight Approaches 1) Think differently – act out-of-the-box 1. Future Study Domain - Framing and 2) Anticipate – potential future impacts Scoping, Racking and Stacking 3) Socialise – start new conversations 2. Horizon Scanning and Predictive Models Design 3. Strategic Envisioning and SWOT Analysis 4) Explore – investigate current chaos 4. Planning and Forecasting 5) Define – criteria for future success 5. Execution and Implementation 6) Specialise – focus in and network Integrate Strategic Foresight Methods & Techniques 7) Unbundle – determine what is 6. General Foresight Methods 8) Link – foresight with strategy 6.1. Trend Analysis / Extrapolation Analysis 9) Lead – catalyst for quantum change 6.2. Precursor Analysis / Pattern Analysis Deliver 6.3. Scenario Analysis / Goal Analysis 10) Possible and Alternative Futures 6.4. Possible and Alternative Futures Projection 11) Preferred Futures, Desired Outcomes 6.5. Game Theory and Monte Carlo Simulation 12) Business Landscape Envisioning 6.6. Massive Global Change 13) Application Landscape Envisioning 14) Technology Landscape Envisioning Business Strategy Development 15) Business Roadmap Planning 7. Strategy and Planning 16) Application Roadmap Planning 7.1 Business Innovation 17) Technology Roadmap Planning 7.2 Technology Innovation 7.3 Strategy Discovery 7.4 Strategy Development Strategic Foresight Network
  • 110. Strategic Foresight - Methods Strategic Foresight Consultancy – Kaat Exterbille
  • 111. Strategic Foresight - Techniques • Horizon Scanning • Future Study Domain Definition, Framing • Monitoring and Tracking and Scoping • Pattern and Trend Analysis • Strategic Envisioning and Planning • Precursor and Extrapolation Analysis • Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis • PEST and SWOT Analysis • Business and Technology Innovation • Predictive Modelling • Threat Analysis and Risk Management • Stakeholder Surveys and Benefits • Futures Execution and Implementation Analysis • Master Planning and Road Mapping • Strategic Gap Audits • Business Transformation • Competitiveness Achievement • Change Management Planning (CAP) • The Futures Wheel • Budgeting and Forecasting • Strategic Investment Planning • Target Setting and Action Planning • Futures Research and Briefings • CSF’s, KPI’s and Metrication • Futures Coaching and Mentoring • Monitoring, Reporting and Control • Futures Workshops and Seminars • Narrative Analysis • Futures Conferences and Forums • Monte Carlo Simulation • Networking and Futures Events • Causal Layer Analysis (CLA) • Futures Leadership and Development Strategic Foresight Consultancy – Kaat Exterbille
  • 112. EA-envision Intuitionists • Intuitionists - the future will be shaped by a complex mix of inexorable trends, random events, and the actions of key individuals and institutions. • Intuitionists are convinced that the future will be shaped by a complex mixture of inexorable trends, random events, and the actions of key individuals and institutions. Because of this complexity, there is no rational technique that can be used to forecast the future. Thus, the best method for projecting future trends and events is to gather as much information as possible and, then, to depend on subconscious information processing in the brain and personal intuition to provide useful insights. • Intuition can be defined as a holistic filtering of data and information gathered by the other senses (Jeffry Palmer). “Jamais une maison n'a bien marché quand la fortune est gouverné.” EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 113. How Can We Think Ahead? Intuitionist Techniques Delphi Survey - This is a method for taking advantage of the talent, experience, and knowledge of a number of experts in a structured manner that allows an exchange of divergent views without direct confrontation Nominal Group Conferencing - is a formal technique for structuring the input from a number of subject matter experts. The technique is similar in some ways to "brain storming", but its structure requires all participants to take active part in the process. It also requires participants to use their brains in a series of different ways . Workshops, Brainstorming and Hot-housing - methods for gathering and correlating the thoughts and opinions of a collection of domain specialists and subject matter experts about how the future will unfold . Brainstorming is a quick-and-dirty means of envisioning the broad future landscape and determining major topological features Hot-housing focuses on a single major topological feature, or set of closely related features, to drive out a detailed description Workshops help to create a common, shared vision of the future EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 114. Intuitionists • Intuitionists - the future will be shaped by a complex mix of inexorable trends, random events, and the actions of key individuals and institutions. • Intuitionists are convinced that the future will be shaped by a complex mixture of inexorable trends, random events, and the actions of key individuals and institutions. Because of this complexity, there is no rational technique that can be used to forecast the future. Thus, the best method for projecting future trends and events is to gather as much information as possible and, then, to depend on subconscious information processing in the brain and personal intuition to provide useful insights. • Intuition can be defined as a holistic filtering of data and information gathered by the other senses (Jeffry Palmer). • The Delphi Survey technique is a method for taking advantage of the talent, experience, and knowledge of a number of experts in a structured manner that allows an exchange of divergent views without direct confrontation. The technique involves initial projections, usually in quantitative terms, of future events. After the initial projections are correlated, participants are asked to explain, anonymously, their differences in a series of follow-up rounds. Results are normally semi-quantitative, and the technique can be used to project future technical, market, and other developments, to uncover fundamental differences of opinion, and to identify non-conventional ideas and concepts. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 115. Intuitionists • Intuitionists - the future will be shaped by a complex mix of inexorable trends, random events, and the actions of key individuals and institutions. • Nominal Group Conferencing is a formal technique for structuring the input from a number of subject matter experts. The technique is similar in some ways to "brain storming", but its structure requires all participants to take active part in the process. It also requires participants to use their brains in a series of different ways, i.e., to individually generate new ideas, to silently assess the ideas of others, to jointly examine the implications of new ideas with others, and to formally evaluate a series of options. The results of employment of this technique are typically semi-quantitative. Nominal Group Conferencing is often used to project future developments, to uncover new business opportunities, or to identify new solutions to old problems. • Workshops, Brainstorming and Hot-housing are methods for gathering and correlating the thoughts and opinions of a collection of domain specialists and subject matter experts about how the future will unfold. – Brainstorming is a quick-and-dirty means of envisioning the broad future landscape and determining major topological features. – Hot-housing focuses on a single major topological feature, or set of closely related features, to drive out a detailed description. – Workshops help to create a common vision of the future. Running future horizon scanning workshops motivates participants because it involves members of a team collectively describing the future landscape in order to create a common vision of the future. The workshop process should not be allowed to be a simple, random, unstructured activity. Organisation and mentoring needs to be carefully planned executed and followed up. • Horizon Scanning enables organisations to anticipate and prepare for new risks and opportunities by looking at trends and information in the medium- to long-term future. Horizon Scanning is important for establishing a sound knowledge base for decision-making to influence the future. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 116. Intuitionists • Intuitionists - the future will be shaped by a complex mix of inexorable trends, random events, and the actions of key individuals and institutions. • Workshop / Seminar / Conference Techniques may include, but are not restricted to: - – Trend Analysis: systematic collection of data concerning events occurring in the world around us. – Precursor Analysis: stages of events as they progress from the past, through the present to determine the future. – Scenario Analysis: extrapolating a series of possible future events that could occur in the future – Game Theory – a branch of applied mathematics also used in the arts & social sciences (political science, philosophy and economics), in biology & evolution, computing & cybernetics and in military science. – Massive Change: The Future of Global Design – Massive Global Change is a technique that investigates both the capacity, power and promise as well as the limitations and constraints of global resources. Global Design explores the legacy and potential, the promise and power of design in improving the welfare of humanity in which the capacities and limitations of human efforts to change the world, both for the better and the worse, are researched and evaluated. – Future horizon scanning workshops need to be structured and follow workshop processes, procedures and rules. This is crucial as future horizon scanning workshops need to involve the whole team - which means that everyone must be able to contribute towards, and have visibility of, everything that's happening. Running future horizon scanning workshops places a significant burden on the facilitator to manage the process, people's involvement and sensitivities, and then to manage the follow up and review actions. Use future horizon scanning workshops well and you will see excellent results in improving the common vision of the future.
  • 117. Horizon Scanning EA-envision • Horizon Scanning is important for establishing a sound knowledge base for decision-making. Horizon scanning enables organisations to anticipate and prepare for new risks and opportunities by looking at trends and information in the medium- to long-term future. • What is horizon scanning? Horizon Scanning is defined by the UK Government Office for Science as: 'the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments, including (but not restricted to) those at the margins of current thinking and planning.‘ • Anticipating and preparing for future challenges, trends and opportunities is an essential component of any organisation's strategy. The government's Chief Scientific Adviser is encouraging Departments to undertake horizon scanning in a structured and auditable manner. • Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends. • The government's Horizon Scanning Centre of Excellence, part of the Foresight Directorate in the Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills, has the role of supporting Departmental activities and facilitating cross-departmental collaboration.
  • 118. Outsights 21 Drivers for the 21st Century • Outsights 21 Drivers for the 21st Century (TM) Presentation is a provocative and future-orientated scan of the 21 key forces shaping this century, from the rise of the BRICs to the challenges of resource availability and explosion of information. • The 21 Drivers for the 21st Century (TM) Presentation can be tailored for conferences and workshops and is ideal for stimulating debate and testing your assumptions of the Future. 1. War, terrorism and insecurity 12. Identity 2. Layers of power 13. Consumerism 3. Economic and financial stability 14. Networks and connectivity 4. BRICs and emerging powers 15. Space 5. Five flows of globalisation 16. Science futures 6. Intellectual property 17. Science and society 7. Health 18. Resource availability 8. Mobility 19. Climate change 9. Population 20. Environmental degradation 10. Trust and reputation 21. Urbanisation 11. Values and beliefs Outsights 21 Drivers for the 21st Century
  • 119. EA-envision Scenarios • Scenarios are specially constructed stories about the future - each one portraying a distinct, challenging and plausible world in which we might one day live and work - and for which we need to anticipate, plan and prepare. • The Outsights Technique emphasises collaborative scenario building with internal clients and stakeholders. Embedding a new way of thinking about the future in the organisation is essential if full value is to be achieved – a fundamental principle of the “enabling, not dictating” approach • The Outsights Technique promotes the development and execution of purposeful action plans so that the valuable learning experience from “outside-in” scenario planning enables building profitable business change. • The Outsights Technique develops scenarios at the geographical level; at the business segment, unit and product level, and for specific threats, risks and challenges facing organisations. Scenarios add value to organisations in many ways: - future management, business strategy, managing change, managing risk and communicating strategy throughout an organisation. Outsights 21 Drivers for the 21st Century
  • 120. EA-envision Strategy Scenarios • Strategy Scenarios provide a shared context and clarity on those issues shaping the future in which decision makers can make difficult choices about opportunity exploitation and risk management strategies. • The Outsights Technique helps stakeholders stand back, take stock and seek fresh points of view: - – Facilitation of the internal debate exploring stakeholder value, opportunity exploitation and risk management – Sounding board for business transformation, innovation and strategy – Stakeholder engagement and the communication of the process with the wider partner, stakeholder and employee community – Review of specific opportunity exploitation and risk management agendas – Surfacing diverse opinions from internal and external stakeholders to identify needs for strategic content, clarity, perspective and action Outsights 21 Drivers for the 21st Century
  • 121. EA-envision Managing Change Scenarios • Strategy Scenarios provide a shared context and clarity on those issues shaping the future in which decision makers can make difficult choices. • Managing Change Scenario thinking can compel a wide range of people to open up to new options and change their own images of reality by sharing and discussing assumptions on what is shaping the world. • The Outsights Technique translates what is learnt into action in the following ways to achieve sustainable change and risk management : - – Providing the content and insight needed to understand changes in the outside world (Drivers of Change, Scenario Building, Risk Categories) – Designing and running processes to push change and risk management down from the organisational level to the individual level – thus delivering personal accountability (Strategy & Planning, Budgeting & Forecasting, Change Management, Risk Management, Performance Management) Outsights 21 Drivers for the 21st Century
  • 122. Positivists versus Futurists – summary of differences between Quantitative and Qualitative Future Methods Futurists - Quantitative Future Methods Positivists - Qualitative Future Methods Pattern-Trend-Goal Analysis – Horizon Scanning Evolutionary – Intuitive – Precognitive Quantitative Qualitative Objective Subjective Analytic Visionary Observation Facilitation / Participation Hypothesis Formation Futures Articulation Predictive Exploratory Theory Construction Outcome Anticipation Experimental Descriptive Repeatable Results Insights Linear Systems Complex and Chaotic Systems Hard Facts Soft Alternatives Model Driven Intuitive Reporting Performing Knowledge Revelation Change Agent Value Neutral Value Driven Reductionism Systemic and Holistic EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 123. Positivists versus Futurists – summary of differences between Quantitative and Qualitative Future Techniques Primary Futures Disciplines (27) Secondary Futures Specialties (27) Future Foundations and Foresight Frameworks Probabilistic (Statistical) Prediction Planning and Strategy (foundation & advanced) Forecasting and Modelling (foundation and advanced) Ethnographic / Demographic Futures Geo-demographic Profiling and Actuarial Science Strategic Foresight Threat Assessment and Risk Management Scenario Analysis Scenario Development and Back-casting Market Analysis and Prediction Corporate Finance and Long-Term / Strategic Investment Environmental / Horizon Scanning Geography, Sociology, Demographics and Social Change Pattern Analysis and Extrapolation Urban and Long-Range Infrastructure Planning Science and Technology Futures Studies Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies Systems and Technology Trends Analysis Cross Impact and Pattern Analysis Environment, Ecology and Sustainability Studies Future Landscape Envisioning. Planning and Mapping Emerging Issues / Technology Trends Analysis Preferential Surveys / Polls and Market Research Knowledge Management and Decision Support Collaboration, Facilitation Strategic Foresight Intuition and Pre-cognition Development and Acceleration Studies Linear Systems Studies Massive Change Complex Systems, Chaos Theory, Human Impact Futures Studies History and Analysis of Prediction Alternative Futures Critical and Evidence-Based Thinking Critical Futures and Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Peace / Conflict Studies Cognitive and Positive Psychology Personal Futures / Foresight Development Foresight, Intuition and Pre-cognition Predictive Surveys / Delphi Oracle Political Science and Policy Studies Leadership Studies, Religious Studies (Future Beliefs) Ethics of Emerging Technology Studies Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Management Sociology, Philosophy and Evolution Studies Trans-humanism, Ethics and Values Studies Integral Studies and Future Thinking Weak Signals and Wildcards Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity Utopian and Dystopian Literature, Film & Arts Bio-Technology and Quantum Science Science Fiction and Images of the Future
  • 124. How Can We Think Ahead? Brainstorming Techniques 'Kaleidoscope Brainstorming'© technique – the brainstorming technique for problem-solving, team-building and the creative process SWOT Analysis - technique for assessing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats operating on a company, profit centre, business unit, proposition, product, concept, idea. PEST Analysis – technique for measuring the attractiveness and potential of a market The Boston Consulting Group Matrix Analysis - market growth. The McKinsey Seven-S's - criteria for a successful company. Porters Five Forces Analysis - competitive achievement The Gartner Magic Quadrant - criteria for a successful product Adizes corporate life-cycle model - phases and stages of the development of an enterprise EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 125. How Can We Think Ahead? Hothouse Techniques Delegation model - successful task delegation and staff development through delegation Tuckman's group development model - forming, storming, normalising, performing Kolb's learning styles - for training the trainers, coaching the coaches, managing the managers and personal development Leadership attributes - for developing leadership among managers Negotiation process - for sales and commercial staff and optimising on profitable outcomes and customer relationships Cherie Carter-Scott's rules of life - behaviour and attitude development and soft skills development The Four Agreements - behaviour and attitude development and soft skills development EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 126. How Can We Think Ahead? Horizon Scanning Workshop Techniques Trend Analysis: – systematic collection of data concerning what is occurring in the world around us. Precursor analysis: – stages of events as they progress from the past, through the present to the future. Scenario analysis: – series of possible future events that could occur in the future. Game theory: – a branch of applied mathematics also used in the arts & social sciences (political science, philosophy and economics), in biology & evolution, computing & cybernetics and military science. Massive Change: – Massive Global Change evaluates global capacities and limitations. It encompasses both utopian & dystopian outcomes. Advanced 'Kaleidoscope Workshop'© technique – advanced workshop technique for foresight, envisioning and creative processes EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 127. How Can We Think Ahead? Structured and Unstructured Interviews Structured and Unstructured Interviews – are methods for canvassing and collecting the thoughts and opinions of a individual of domain specialists and subject matter experts about how the future will unfold . Structured interviews – are similar to traditional opinion polls in that the people conducting the interviews know ahead of time the information they are seeking and structure the interview to get this information as efficiently as possible . Unstructured interviews – on the other hand, are used when the subject area to be addressed is less well defined. The interviewer begins each session with only a limited concept of how the interview will be structured. In large measure, each question is based on the answer to the previous question. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 128. How Can We Think Ahead? Future Sensing, Foresight and Precognition Future Sensing, Foresight and Precognition – contemplative, meditation and psychic methods for pre-cognitive viewing of the future and how the future will unfold. This is well known within certain cultures (e.g. Native Central American Indians) and government agencies (e.g. US and Soviet Military) and may be accompanied by inducement of hypnotic states or the consumption of hallucinogens. The Sixth Sense – technique useful in linking strategy to foresight (Kees Van der Heijden). Precognition – Precognitives define Intuition as a holistic filtering of information gathered by the other senses (Jeffry Palmer). Precognition: Sensing the Future – psychic technique which blurs the separation between the world of the living and the world of the dead….. (Rita Berkowitz, Deborah S. Romaine). EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 129. Predicting the future outcomes of war….. Military Techniques Sun Tzu Military Strategies – criteria, organised in 13 aspects, for waging an unrestricted war (The Art of War). The von Clausewitz Strategy – On War, a strategy for prosecuting a successful outcome to war (Prussian Military Academy). The von Moltke Strategy – technique for surrounding and enveloping an objective, rather than a frontal assault (Prussian Military Academy). The von Schlieffen Plan – WW1 method for planning, directing and executing a successful military campaign (Prussian Military Academy). Blitzkrieg (Lightening War) – Heinz Guderian’s method for initiating an overwhelming military operation (Truppenamt - German General Staff). Lanchester Theory – mathematical model for achieving a successful outcome to a military engagement (also used in Game Theory) EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 130. Enterprise Risk Management Frameworks Business Transformation Value Proposition – Advisory Consulting EA-envision: Enterprise Risk Management Framework Qui ne risque rien n'a rien….. …..
  • 131. EA-envision Futures Studies • Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology is the practice and art of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures . Futures studies (colloquially called "Futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends. • Futures is an interdisciplinary curriculum, studying yesterday's and today's changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional strategies, bets and opinions with respect to tomorrow. It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in the attempt to develop foresight and to map possible futures. • Around the world the field is variously referred to as futures studies, strategic foresight, futurology, futuristics, futures thinking, futuring, futuribles (in France, the latter is also the name of the important 20th century foresight journal published only in French), and prospectiva (in Spain and Latin America). Futures studies (and one of its sub-disciplines, strategic foresight) are the academic field's most commonly used terms in the English-speaking world.
  • 132. EA-envision Foresight • In Futures Studies, the term " Foresight" embraces: - – Critical thinking concerning long-term policy development, – Debate and consultation to create wider stakeholder participation, – Shaping the future - by influencing public policy and strategic direction • Foresight is being applied to strategic activities in the public as well as the private sector, and underlines the need to link every activity or project with any kind of future dimension to action today in order to make a planned, integrated future impact (“shaping the future”). • Foresight differs from much futures research and strategic planning. It encompasses a range of approaches that combine the three components mentioned above, which may be recast as: - – futures (forecasting, forward thinking, perspectives), – planning (strategic analysis, priority setting), and – networking (participatory, dialogic) tools and orientations. • Much futures research has been academic, but Foresight programmes were designed to influence policy - often R&D policy. Much technology policy had been very elitist; Foresight attempts to go beyond the normal bounds and gather widely distributed intelligence
  • 133. EA-envision Foresight • Foresight draws on traditions of work in long-range forecasting and strategic planning, horizontal policymaking and democratic planning, horizon scanning and futures studies - but was also highly influenced by systemic approaches to innovation studies, global design, science and technology policy, and analysis of "critical technologies“ and “cultural evolution". • Many of the methods that are commonly associated with Foresight - Delphi surveys, scenario workshops, etc. - derive from the futures field. So does the fact that Foresight is concerned with: - – The longer-term - futures that are usually at least 10 years away (though there are some exceptions to this, especially in its use in private business). Since Foresight is action-oriented (the planning link) it will rarely be oriented to perspectives beyond a few decades out (though where decisions like aircraft design, power station construction or other major infrastructural decisions are concerned, then the planning horizon may well be half a century). – Alternative futures: it is helpful to examine alternative paths of development, not just what is currently believed to be most likely or business as usual. Often Foresight will construct multiple scenarios. These may be an interim step on the way to creating what may be known as positive visions, success scenarios, aspirational futures. Sometimes alternative scenarios will be a major part of the output of Foresight work, with the decision about what fuure to build being left to other mechanisms.
  • 134. EA-envision Forecasting • Forecasting is the process of estimation in unknown situations. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both can refer to estimation of time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data. • Usage can differ between areas of application: for example in hydrology, the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. • Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction. Forecasting is used in the practice of in every day business forecasting for manufacturing companies. The discipline of demand planning, also sometimes referred to as supply chain forecasting, embraces both statistical forecasting and a consensus process. • Forecasting is commonly used in discussion of time-series data. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 135. Forecasting approach - Time series methods • Categories of forecasting methods – Time series methods – Causal / economic methods – Judgemental Methods – Other Methods • Forecasting accuracy • Applications of forecasting • External links • References • Time series methods use historical / time variant data as a mathematical basis for projecting future outcomes. – Moving average – Exponential smoothing – Extrapolation – Linear prediction – Trend estimation – Growth curve EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 136. EA-envision Time series methods – Moving average • In statistics, a moving average or rolling average is one of a family of similar techniques used to analyze time series data. It is applied in finance and especially in technical analysis. It can also be used as a generic smoothing operation, in which case the raw data need not be a time series. • A moving average series can be calculated for any time series. In finance it is most often applied to stock prices, returns or trading volumes. Moving averages are used to smooth out short-term fluctuations, thus highlighting longer-term trends or cycles. The threshold between short-term and long-term depends on the application, and the parameters of the moving average will be set accordingly. • Mathematically, each of these moving averages is an example of a convolution. These averages are also similar to the low-pass filters used in signal processing. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 137. Time series methods – Exponential smoothing • In statistics, exponential smoothing refers to a particular type of moving average technique applied to time series data, either to produce smoothed data for presentation, or to make forecasts. The time series data themselves are a sequence of observations. The observed phenomenon may be an essentially random process, or it may be an orderly, but noisy, process. • Exponential smoothing is commonly applied to financial market and economic data, but it can be used with any discrete set of repeated measurements. The raw data sequence is often represented by {xt}, and the output of the exponential smoothing algorithm is commonly written as {st} which may be regarded as our best estimate of what the next value of x will be. When the sequence of observations begins at time t = 0, the simplest form of exponential smoothing is given by the formulas • where α is the smoothing factor, and 0 < α < 1.
  • 138. EA-envision Time series methods – Extrapolation • In mathematics, extrapolation is the process of constructing new data points outside a discrete set of known data points. It is similar to the process of interpolation, which constructs new points between known points, but its results are often less meaningful, and are subject to greater uncertainty . • A sound choice of which extrapolation method to apply relies on a prior knowledge of the process that created the existing data points. Crucial questions are for example if the data can be assumed to be continuous, smooth, possibly periodic etc: - – Linear extrapolation – Polynomial extrapolation – Conic extrapolation – French curve extrapolation • Quality of extrapolation - typically, the quality of a particular method of extrapolation is limited by the assumptions about the function made by the method. If the method assumes the data are smooth, then a non-smooth function will be poorly extrapolated. • Extrapolation in the complex plane - in complex analysis, a problem of extrapolation may be converted into an interpolation problem by the change of variable. This transform exchanges the part of the complex plane inside the unit circle with the part of the complex plane outside of the unit circle. In particular, the compactification point at infinity is mapped to the origin and vice versa. Care must be taken with this transform however, since the original function may have had "features", for example poles and other singularities, at infinity that were not evident from the sampled data.
  • 139. EA-envision Risk Management • Risk management is a structured approach to managing uncertainty through foresight and planning. A risk is related to a specific threat (or group of related threats) managed through a sequence of activities using various resources: - • Risk Research – Risk Identification – Risk Prioritization – Risk Assessment – Risk Management Strategies – Risk Planning – Risk Mitigation • Risk management strategies may include: - – transferring the risk to another party – avoiding the risk altogether – reducing the negative effect of the risk – accepting part or all of the consequences of a particular risk . • In an ideal risk management scenario, a prioritization process ranks those risks with the greatest potential loss and the greatest probability of occurring to be handled first - and risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower consequential losses are then handled in descending order • In practice this prioritization can be challenging. Comparing and balancing the overall threat of risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss - versus risks with higher potential loss but lower probability of occurrence - can often be misleading.
  • 140. Enterprise Risk Management Framework
  • 141. EA-envision Intangible Risk Management • Intangible risk management hypothesises a different type of threat - a risk that has a 100% probability of occurring but is ignored by the organization due to an inability to recognise a threat, or the failure to identify a risk: - – process-engagement risk may pose a threat when processes are ineffective, incomplete or broken and operational procedures are misapplied (or not applied). – a knowledge risk may materialise when insufficient knowledge is available in a threat domain, or a deficient level of knowledge is applied to a threat situation,. – a relationship risk may occur when group dynamics are disrupted, morale breaks down, or communication, collaboration and team-working become ineffective. • Intangible risk management allows risk managers to create immediate value from the identification and reduction of hidden risks that reduce productivity. • Such risks may reduce the productivity of knowledge workers, decrease cost effectiveness, erode profitability and service and quality whilst compromising reputation, brand value, market share and earnings. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 142. EA-envision Opportunity Cost Management • Risk management also faces difficulties in providing sufficient enterprise resources or allocating those resources appropriately. This is the concept of opportunity cost: - – Resources denied to risk management that could have been deployed more profitably on managing and avoiding risk. – Resources over-expended on risk management that could have been spent elsewhere in the business on more profitable applications. • Ideal risk management scenarios minimizes spending whilst maximizing the reduction of the negative effects of risks. – Prioritization ranks those risks with the greatest potential loss and / or the greatest probability of occurrence - to be treated first – Those risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower consequential losses are then handled in descending order – Risk management seeks to balance and optimise the overall threat impact of risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss - versus risks with greater potential loss but lower probability of occurrence
  • 143. EA-envision Establishing the Risk Context • Establishing the risk context involves the following: - – Researching the types of risk apparent in any given interest domain – Identification of all of the risks in the selected domain of interest – Evaluating and prioritising of all of the risks in the risk domain – Defining a framework for the E2E risk management approach, activity & strategies – Planning the framework approach to risk management • Mapping out the risk management strategies and process • Determine the scope of the risk management study • Confirm the identity and objectives of stakeholders • Select the basis upon which risks will be evaluated • Manage constraints – time, scope, knowledge, resources. – Developing an analysis of risks involved in the process. – Mitigation of risks using all available technological, human and organizational resources and techniques.
  • 144. EA-envision Risk Identification • After establishing the context, the next step in the process of managing risk is to identify individual potential threat scenarios. Risks are threat events that, when triggered, cause problems. Hence, risk identification can start with the source of problems, or with the problem itself. – Source analysis Risk sources may be internal or external to the system that is the target of risk management. Examples of risk sources are: stakeholders of a project, employees of a company or the weather over an airport. – Problem analysis Risks are related to identified threats. For example: the threat of losing money, the threat of abuse of privacy information or the threat of accidents and casualties. The threats may exist with various entities, most important with shareholders, customers and legislative bodies such as the government. • When either source or problem is known, then the events that a source may trigger or the events that can lead to a problem can be investigated. For example: stakeholders withdrawing during a project may endanger funding of the project; privacy information may be stolen by employees even within a closed network; lightning striking a Boeing 747 during takeoff may cause onboard instrumentation to fail.
  • 145. EA-envision Risk Management Strategies • Event risk management strategies are focused on risks stemming from physical causes like natural disasters or fires, accidents, death • Legal risk management strategies are focused on risks stemming from legal causes like lawsuits and prosecution that are mainly operational and due diligence risks. • Financial risk management, on the other hand, focuses on risks that can be managed using traded financial instruments like market risks, credit risks, liquidity risks or insurance risks. • The objective of risk management is to reduce different risks related to a preselected domain to the level accepted by the public, the company, the company's regulator, the shareholders, the board of directors, the risk committee, the management, etc.. • Risk may refer to numerous types of threats caused by environment, technology, humans, organizations, regulations, compliances, best practices, standards, methodologies and politics • On the other hand risk involves all means available for humans, or in particular, for a risk management entity like person, staff, organization
  • 146. EA-envision Risk Categories • Operational risk is defined as the risk of loss resulting from broken, inadequate or failed processes, people and systems - or from unforeseen “Black Swan” external actions or events • Credit risk is the risk of loss due to a debtor's non-payment of a loan or other line of credit, either the principal or interest like the coupon or both. • Market risk is the risk that the value of an investment will decrease due to moves in market factors. The four standard market risk factors are: – Equity risk is the risk that asset, instrument, contract, share or stock prices will change – Interest rate risk is the risk that interest rates will change – Currency risk is the risk that foreign exchange rates will change – Commodity risk is the risk that commodity prices like grains, metals, oil, gas, energy etc. will change • Illiquidity risk arises from situations in which a party interested in trading an asset cannot do so because no counterparty in the market wishes to trade for that asset – leading to negative value. • Insurance risk is a risk of failure to meet underwriting criteria for re-insurance. The concept of insurable risk underlies nearly all insurance underwriting decisions. • Reputational risk is the potential for negative publicity or costly litigation, leading to loss of reputation, fall in revenue, defection from the customer base or the loss, imprisonment or exit of key employees or defection or detention of business partners or loss of channels-to-market. • Competitive risk is the possibility of loss from a firm's negative growth in market share, revenue, loss of competitiveness or dominance, or decline in desirability of product and service portfolios due to market shift, competitive pressure or key employee defection to competitors.
  • 147. EA-envision Risk Categories • Strategic Risk Management examines the possibility or risk that a “Black Swan” action or event – an unanticipated or unexpected threat – will adversely affect the firm's ability to achieve its objectives. In this context Strategic Risk Management - managing strategic risk - involves: – identifying key threats as well as strategic assumptions both implicit and explicit and determining the level of strategic vulnerabilities associated with each – making the correct decisions over sustained periods of time that result in maximum value protection and efficient coverage of opportunities – ensuring that the decision-making processes are resilient, robust and effective given the complexity of risk scenarios and uncertainties of the models involved, and – charting a tight and accurate course towards achieving objectives once those decisions are made • Legal risk is the risk associated with the impact on cash flow or debt service of a defect in the contract document – Legal risk in Basel II and Solvency II is included within operational risk • Regulatory risk is the risk associated with the potential for Regulatory Compliance related to changes to rules governing a given type of instrument, market, industry sector or regulatory domain to impact subject contracts, assets, instruments, stocks and investments. • Statutory risk is the risk associated with the potential for Statutory Compliance related to changes to laws and legislation for a given industry, economy, or type of trade to impact upon subject contracts, assets, instruments, stocks and investments. • Systemic risk is the overarching market risk or the threat of risk that cannot be mitigated or diverted, as opposed to "idiosyncratic risk", which is specific to individual contracts, assets, instruments, stocks and investments. It refers to change across the whole market or economy. – Risk of international conflict or war is the probability of loss from threats of global geo-political conflict – Risk of global Massive Global Change is the probability of loss from global climatic and environmental threats
  • 148. EA-envision Trade Risk Breakdown Structure EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 149. EA-envision Enterprise Risk Management • Enterprise Risk Management or ERM includes the methods and processes used by organizations to manage risks or seize opportunities related to the achievement of their objectives. Enterprise Risk Management provides a framework for risk management, which typically involves identifying particular events or circumstances relevant to the organization's objectives like risks and opportunities, assessing them in terms of likelihood and magnitude of impact, determining a response strategy, and monitoring progress. By identifying and proactively addressing risks and opportunities, business enterprises protect and create value for their stakeholders, including owners, employees, customers, regulators, and society overall. • Enterprise Risk Management can also be described as a risk-based approach to managing an enterprise, integrating concepts of strategic planning, operations management, and internal control. Enterprise Risk Management is evolving to address the needs of various stakeholders, who want to understand the broad spectrum of risks facing complex organizations to ensure they are appropriately managed. Regulators and debt rating agencies have increased their scrutiny on the risk management processes of companies. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 150. Enterprise Risk Management Frameworks • Enterprise Risk Management Frameworks describe an approach for identifying, analyzing, responding to, and monitoring risks or opportunities, within the internal and external environment facing the enterprise. Management selects a risk response strategy for specific risks identified and analyzed, which may include: - – Avoidance: exiting the activities giving rise to risk – Reduction: taking action to reduce the likelihood or impact of a risk – Transfer: - sharing or insuring a portion of the risk, to mitigate or reduce it – Accept: no action is taken, due to a cost/benefit decision • Monitoring is typically performed by management as part of its internal control activities, such as review of analytical reports or management committee meetings with relevant experts, to understand how the risk response strategy is working and whether the objectives are being met or targets achieved. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 151. COSO Enterprise Risk Management Framework • The COSO Enterprise Risk Management Framework has eight Components and four objectives categories. The eight components are: - 1. Internal Environment 2. Objective Setting 3. Event Identification 4. Risk Assessment 5. Risk Response 6. Control Activities 7. Information and Communication 8. Monitoring • The four objectives categories - additional components highlighted are: - 1. Strategy - high-level goals, aligned with and supporting the organization's mission 2. Operations - effective and efficient use of resources 3. Financial Reporting - reliability of operational and financial reporting 4. Compliance - compliance with applicable laws and regulations
  • 152. EA-envision Primary Risk Functions • The primary risk functions in large corporations that may participate in an Enterprise Risk Management program typically include: - – Strategic planning - identifies competitive opportunities and external threats, along with strategic initiatives to address them – Marketing - understands the target customer to ensure product/service alignment with customer requirements – Regulatory and Statutory Compliance – provides governance and monitors compliance with code of conduct and initiates money laundering and fraud investigations – Accounting / Financial Compliance - directs the Sarbanes-Oxley Section 302 and 404 assessment, which identifies financial reporting risks, and Basle II / Solvency II compliance. – Legal Service Department - manages litigation and analyzes emerging legal trends that may impact upon the organization – Insurance - ensures the proper insurance coverage for the organization – Treasury - ensures cash is sufficient to meet business needs, while managing risk related to commodity pricing or foreign exchange EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 153. EA-envision Primary Risk Functions – Operational Quality Assurance - verifies operational output is within tolerances – Operations Management - ensures the business runs day-to-day and that related barriers are surfaced for resolution – Credit Management - ensures any credit provided to customers is appropriate to their ability to repay the advance – Customer Services - ensures customer complaints are handled promptly and root causes are reported to operations for resolution – Information Technology – follows Clinger-Cohen guidelines for due diligence in IT Procurement, implements Intelligent Agents and Alerts, Digital Dashboards and Reporting for Risk Controls and Risk Incident Capture / Event Identification and Risk Monitoring / Reporting – Internal audit - evaluates Risk Event Identification / Incident Capture and Risk Controls and Risk Monitoring and Reporting and directs non- compliance and fraud investigations – Risk Management – maintains the Enterprise Risk Management Framework and evaluates the effectiveness of each of the above risk functions and recommends improvements
  • 154. Business Transformation Business Transformation Value Proposition – Advisory Consulting EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework Si nous faisons la même vieille chose, de la même vieille manière, nous obtiendrons toujours les mêmes vieux résultats…..
  • 155. Business Programmes – the challenge EA-envision • Business Programmes – Business Transformation Programmes and their associated Processes, Enterprise Services, COTS Applications and Integration Architecture are very complex, high cost / high risk investments and are becoming increasingly difficult to understand and manage. They encompass a huge mass of detail and depend upon the success of a large number of embedded, mission-critical business and technology decisions. • Enterprise Architecture – There is an overarching responsibility to understand the many impacts of these decisions and get them right first time – or risk potentially catastrophic business interruption or failure if we get these decisions wrong. A structured Enterprise Architecture and Service-oriented Architecture Framework guides us successfully through architecting, designing and delivering Enterprise Services via the Enterprise Service Bus. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 156. Business Transformation Risk Breakdown Structure
  • 157. EA-envision Business Transformation • What are the detailed business strategies of the enterprise and how should these be implemented (Business Strategy Development and Organizational Change) ? – Business Strategy Development: - Mission – Businesses Drivers – Strategies – Outcomes – Goals – Objectives • What processes the enterprise executes, how they are integrated, and how they contribute to the strategy of the organization (Business Process Management) ? • How human resources are being utilized and whether there is optimum use of skills and resources available across processes and functions (Human Resource Management) ? • To what extent the organization establishment is a proper reflection of appropriate roles and responsibilities, in order to effectively and efficiently carry out all work (Organization Management) ? • What IT applications are available in the enterprise , how they interface and what processes and functions they support (IT Portfolio Management) ? • How the performance of each process, each function and each individual (CSF’s, KPI’s and metrics) adds up to the organization’s overall performance (Enterprise Performance Management) ? • What business and technology projects are currently underway, how they enable business change, what processes and IT applications do they change and have impact upon and how this contributes to the strategy of the organization (Business Program Management and Project Portfolio Management) ? – Strategic Technology Enablers: - ERP – CRM – Process Orchestration – Collaboration – Enterprise Services EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  • 158. Architecture Blueprint
  • 159. Architecture Roadmap Prepare Blueprint PoC Realisation Implement QUICK WIN – Product Information Management / Master Data Management Implement Future Build State Blueprint MDM PoC Cut-Over Product Design Rehearsals Management Requirements t en ent em pl lem Plan Im p g Build appin Im g/M dellin roce ss M o KW IN - P Validate Design QUIC PoC Build EAI-Deploy ERP PoC Design EAI-Build Blueprint nt me EAI-Design ce Requirements b n ha En ing ERP Roll-out Plan EAI Services ort CRM PoC ep t en /R em Strategy ag EAI PoC se Blueprint an ou M n re h io Mobilisation at Message m Wa r Requirements EAI Platform fo Formats In ise er rp r t om us n te Plan Requirements C – -E IN W N CK WI I Strategy Plan QU K Current Current IC State QU State Customer Management Enterprise Application Integration Process Fitness Programme –Strategy Roadmap
  • 160. Business Transformation Product Flow Planned Date Product Work Stream / Area Product style key: = Project product ; = external Summary Product Description dependency Application Property Infrastructure Business Roadmap requirements 2006 System Audit Facilities Audit Infrastructure BPR Review IS Review IT Review Checkpoint to ensure all data available to Stage sign off proceed. Server Relocation BPR Projects 2007 Provisioning Record Management & replacement Archiving Service IT Infrastructure Call Centre Requirements Plan Application environment prepared development Internet Training Centre IT available Infrastructure Upgrade 1 Ready for Online Services (Internet) & Direct Services (Call Centre) from September 2007 Stage sign off EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework