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120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes
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120516 Calibrating Dc Outcomes

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Presentation to NAPF on measuring and improving DC default fund outcomes.

Presentation to NAPF on measuring and improving DC default fund outcomes.

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  • 1. Calibrating DC Outcomes Three lenses on UK Workplace Savings 16 May 2012 - Nigel Aston, Business Development Director, DCisions - Owen Walker, Member Nominated Director, Pearson Group Pension Plan - Olivia Mayell, Managing Director, Global Multi-Assets, JPMorgan Asset ManagementMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 1
  • 2. The DC eye testMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 2
  • 3. The Three Lenses • The Scheme Lens • The Consumer Lens • The Asset Manager LensMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 3
  • 4. The data • 1 million + real DC savers • 10,000+ schemes • 1,000+ sources of advice • Qualitative research • 24 DC asset managersMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 4
  • 5. What did we find out? • Use of multi-asset and target date funds is rising • Pure equity trackers, delivered a poorer risk/return balance than higher charging funds • De-risking periods lengthening • Disconnect between the scheme perception of who makes the default fund asset allocation decisions and does this in practice • New thinking different to the received wisdom • Default funds that do not use a glide path put members at risk • Comparing default funds, like-for-like has been a challengeMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 5
  • 6. Reliance on defaults – perceived risk The perceived risk from reliance on default solutions remains a question that divides the industry into equal camps..May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 6
  • 7. Member-nominated director, Pearson Group Pension Plan Committee member, Association of Member Nominated Trustees Editor, schemeXpert.comMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 7
  • 8. Structure • Overview of Pearson Group Pension Plan • Evolution of the DC market • Insights from other DC schemes, schemeXpert.com • ReflectionsMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 8
  • 9. Pearson Group Pension Plan • DB scheme open to future accrual, not new members; £2bn in assets • DC scheme – 10,000 members (4,300 active; 5,700 deferred); auto-enrolment • £190m of assets – doubled since March 2009 • Double matching, with 8% cap on employee contribution (16% employer)May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 9
  • 10. Main priorities of the DC scheme • Overseeing transition from Winterthur Life to Friends Life • Relaunch of members’ microsite • Assess the impact of the Bridge case • Prepare for auto-enrolment • Review of default optionMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 10
  • 11. Question time What proportion of employees of the following companies are in the default?May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 11
  • 12. Change in default ratesMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 12
  • 13. Proportion in the default fund 78%May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 13
  • 14. DC fund choices • Through Winterthur Life/Friends Life platform • 10 funds available: • Corporate bond fund • Over 15 year gilt fund • Over 5 years gilt fund • Money market fund • Passive 30:70 global equity fund • Passive UK equity fund • Passive worldwide (ex-UK) equity fund • ESG fund • Property fund • Diversified growth fundMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 14
  • 15. Pearson DC default fund DC lifestyle glide paths DC lifestyle glide path 100% 90% 80% Money market 70% 15 years gilts 60% 15 years corporate bonds 50% 5 years gilts 40% 30:70 global equity 30% 20% 10% 0% 10+ 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Years to retirementMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 15
  • 16. Investment selections by age Investment splits Of £7.5m invested by under 30s: Corporate bond fund Over 15 year gilt fund Over 5 years gilt fund Money market fund Passive 30:70 global equity fund Passive UK equity fund Passive worldwide (ex-UK) equity fund ESG fund Property fund Diversified growth fundMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 16
  • 17. Equity AllocationsMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 17
  • 18. Investment selections by age Equity Allocations Of the £9.1m invested by over 60s: Corporate bond fund Over 15 year gilt fund Over 5 years gilt fund Money market fund Passive 30:70 global equity fund Passive UK equity fund Passive worldwide (ex-UK) equity fund ESG fund Property fund Diversified growth fundMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 18
  • 19. Responsibility for Asset AllocationsMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 19
  • 20. White labellingMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 20
  • 21. IBMMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 21
  • 22. IBM revamps DC default to improve flexibility • Open DC scheme • 11,300 active members, 6,400 deferreds • Replaced default with two options: • Lifecycle – lower levels of capital risk for those approaching retirement and relying on annuity • Lifecycle Plus – higher levels of risk in 15 years to retirement. Aimed at members with DB savings who can afford to take more riskMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 22
  • 23. ARUPMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 23
  • 24. Why 83% of Arup members make max contributions • Contract-based DC scheme with 93% take-up rate – previous DB scheme had just 63% • Only 27% of members in default due to joining process “The joining process we put in place was designed to prevent members going directly into the default. It sounds counter-intuitive, but we actually made it slightly harder to join and made people make more decisions when they did.” - Rosemary Mounce, group pensions manager at ArupMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 24
  • 25. Thomas MillerMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 25
  • 26. Thomas Miller confronts volatility with DC default design • Default fund originally split between passive UK equities and passive global equities, with lifestyling in final eight years • After negative member feedback in Summer 2009, switched to: • 50% in two absolute return funds • 25% in passive equity fund • 25% in passive global equities fundMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 26
  • 27. Thomas Miller confronts volatility with DC default design Fund fees increased, which had to be communicated “The reasons we did this were to reduce the chance of a bad event having a big impact, and reduce the chance of different people getting very different experiences depending on when they start and stop investing. This should hopefully lead to more even outcomes across the membership.” - Grant Lore, group pensions director at Thomas MillerMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 27
  • 28. Scheme Lens: Conclusion • It’s all about the default • Asset allocation is critical • How much fiduciary responsibility do you want to take? • Who does what?May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 28
  • 29. The consumer lens - savings levels Contribution rates vary enormously by ageMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 29
  • 30. De-risking? 32pc of those over 50 years of age hold 70pc equity or more in their portfolios.May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 30
  • 31. It’s about individualsMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 31
  • 32. It’s about individualsMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 32
  • 33. Glide paths are getting longerMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 33
  • 34. Consumer Lens: Conclusion • It’s the consumer stupid! • Contributions matter • Volatility matters • Glide path mattersMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 34
  • 35. Who should be responsible for asset allocation? Schemes consider themselves largely responsible for asset allocation with ‘support’ from advisers. Asset managers have a different view.May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 35
  • 36. A difference of opinion? There is a mismatch between the solutions actually being used and those recommended by asset managers.May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 36
  • 37. Also a difference in fund structure Asset managers are recommending multi-asset solutions.May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 37
  • 38. Asset Manager Lens Asset managers are reviewing strategic and tactical asset allocation more regularly.May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 38
  • 39. However, which multi asset fund do you pick? Multi-asset funds have no common benchmark to facilitate effective comparison.May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 39
  • 40. Choosing the right default solution is hard • Name • Sector • Self-diagnosed risk-rating • Objective • Marketing description • Performance against benchmarkMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 40
  • 41. Choosing the right default solution is hard 3 yr risk-adjusted performance for by risk group.May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 41
  • 42. Choosing the right default solution is hard 1 yr risk-adjusted performance by risk group.May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 42
  • 43. Asset Manager LensMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 43
  • 44. Asset Manager Lens Lower priced products delivered a poorer risk/return balance.May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 44
  • 45. Asset Manager Lens: Conclusion • Choosing the right default is complex • Broad range of outcomes • Make sure you know what you’re buying • Risk-adjusted net return is critical • Fees important, but not the be-allMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 45
  • 46. Olivia Mayell Managing Director Global Multi Asset Group, JPMorgan Asset Management How the industry can respondMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 46
  • 47. The inertia of participants Underlying assumption in DC industry is that plan participants understand how to invest their retirement savings Reality is that most simply do not have time, knowledge or interest And DC schemes often do not make it easy for participants to engage Plan sponsors must bridge the gap between retirement vision and retirement readinessMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 47
  • 48. Legislation There are policies governments can and have implemented to encourage saving and saving in the proper way. Some examples include: – Tax incentives to contribute to specialized retirement vehicles – Tax penalties for making early withdrawals from retirement vehicles – Automatic Enrollment (NEST) – Employer Protection (Safe Harbor) Source: Figure 1: Huffington Post, 2010, Figure 2:PLANSPONSOR 2010. Images are for illustrative purposes only.May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 48
  • 49. Legislation …but with engagement this can be changed… Participants on track to receive 70% or more of income replacement The chart shows income 100% replacement history for J.P. 87% March 31, 2005 Morgan contributing 90% December 31, 2011 participants exposed to at 80% 76% 72% least one Audience of One ® programme. 70% 60% 52% 50% 46% 38% 38% 40% 31% 31% 29% 26% 28% 30% 20% 20% 13% 10% 0% 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 and Over OverallAssumptions: Income replacement results reflect the experience of participants earning between $14,500 and $10 million annually who were contributing to their retirement plan as of December 31, 2011. Retirement age is 65. If over62, retirement age would be current age plus three years. Based on information provided for annual salary, state of residence, hire date, date of birth and gender. If not provided, gender defaults to female. Tax filing status defaults tosingle if state of residency is the same as tax filing state. Includes Social Security which is calculated based on normal Social Security retirement age, as per federal regulations. The assumed income growth rate is 5%. Income growthrate represents the average increase in salary expected over time, which is the approximate historical rate of growth (including inflation) for a typical persons salary. The projection considers the IRS annual compensationlimit, indexed periodically. Contribution amount is based on current election in defined contribution plan. Annual retirement income estimate and initial risk category are calculated using the investments currently held in retirementplan account. Balances from brokerage account(s) or loan(s) will not be included in forecast. Income replacement calculation includes balances from other plans that are turned on for Retirement Dream Machine. May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 49
  • 50. 1990s/early 2000s - Target Date Funds 1990s/early 2000s - Target Date Funds The industry’s response to challenges faced by DC participants Provide automatic asset allocation according to a participants TARGET age Invest more aggressively to build capital early in the DATE employee’s career FUNDS Reduce exposure to market volatility to preserve capital as retirement approaches What is the target-date portfolio design that will best stand up to the stresses of real life saving? How realistic is the fund industry’s modeling of participants’ career-long saving and spending patterns?May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 50
  • 51. Participants’ behaviour in practice is different to the theory Common target date industry J.P. Morgan: Broad participant J.P. Morgan: Defaulted participant assumptions1 population2 population2 On average, participants get raises On average, defaulted participants Participants get a raise every year every other year get raises every other year On average, contribution rates start On average, contribution rates start Contribution rates start at 6%, at 5.8% and increase slowly, at 5% and increase even moreincrease year by year, reaching 10% reaching 8% by age 42 and 10% not slowly, reaching 8% by age 50 and of salary by age 35 until age 55 10% not until age 65 15% of participants over age 59½ 6% of defaulted participants over Premature distributions don’t withdraw, on average, 26% of age 59½ withdraw, on average, happen assets 30% of assets Participants that remain in plan Participants that remain in plan Participants that remain in plan three years after retirement: 100%3 three years after retirement: 19%3 three years after retirement: 22%3 1 Source: Target-Date Retirement Funds: A Blueprint for Effective Portfolio Construction, Alliance Bernstein 2005 (white paper) 2 Source: JPMorgan Retirement Plan Services participant database, 2006-2008. 3 As measured by participants over age 65 who have stopped working.May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 51
  • 52. Standard Target Date Funds are not enough... …you need a glidepath… A broadly diversified portfolio • Extends beyond conventional stocks and bonds to non-traditional assets e.g. direct and public real estate, EMD and EME and High Yield bonds • Brings to the individual participant the diversification and risk efficiency characteristic of sophisticated institutional portfolios • Can lead to better income replacement outcomes, especially for those participants who need it most Volatility in participant cash flows 100% • Must be included in plan design and the evaluation of 90% target date fund strategies % of Portfolio Allocation 80% • Target date portfolios should not be evaluated in terms 70% 60% of “equity glidepaths” 50% • Need for broadly defined asset allocation glide paths 40% 30% • Conventional risk measures e.g. Sharpe ratio 20% • Monte Carlo simulations that account for sequence of 10% market returns and participant cash flows in projecting 0% the range of DC balances at retirement 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 Years until retirement Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. U.S. Large Cap U.S. Small Cap EAFE Emerging Equity Global Natural Resources REITs Commodities Emerging Market Debt High Yield Core Fixed Income TIPS Cash Equivalents Source: J.P. Morgan Asset ManagementMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 52
  • 53. J.P. Morgan Asset Management FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY | NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION ‘Professional’ means the definition for Professional clients ascribed to it within the European Union Directive 2004/39/EU on Markets in Financial Instruments (MIFD) Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out, unless otherwise stated, are J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of going to print. They are considered to be accurate at the time of writing, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to you. The views contained herein are not to be taken as an advice or recommendation to buy or sell any investment and the material should not be relied upon as containing sufficient information to support an investment decision. It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance. Changes in exchange rate may have an adverse effect on the value price or income of the product. You should also note that if you contact J.P. Morgan Asset Management by telephone those lines could be recorded and may be monitored for security and training purposes. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co and its affiliates worldwide. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. Issued in the UK by JPMorgan Asset Management Marketing Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in England No. 288553. Registered address: 125 London Wall, London EC2Y 5AJ.May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 53
  • 54. Conclusion • It’s complex • Different perspectives • Form your own view • It’s all about the default • Asset allocation is critical • Choose your team carefully and review regularly • Think about your consumersMay 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 54
  • 55. What does DCisions bring to the party? • Calibration and context to the asset allocation decision. This brings the ability to inform plan design through the analysis of the asset allocation and outcomes of more than one million savers. • Robust understanding of performance. Empirical data for both the risk and return delivered to real consumers shows the true picture of DC outcomes. • Measures of value not price. Paying more to have greater intervention and flexibility may be money well spent: the analysis provides objective, robust and measurable analysis of the ‘value vs. price’ debate.May 21, 2012 Copyright © DCisions Limited 2011, All Rights Reserved. Patent No. 7,844,527. 55

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