Past & Future Of The Cloud Nott Tues Nov 09

So what’s this ‘cloud’ stuff all about? Simon Oxley @soxley warning: this is an infrastructure biased presentation

The Cloud: according to @soxley Any service that is: • Accessed via the Internet • On demand near-instant provisioning • Elastic can supply an infinite demand • Managed by the provider Q: Why is it called ‘The Cloud’? A: Because that’s how architects draw ‘The Internet’

How did we get here?

1944 The Colossus at Bletchley Park The first Colossus is operational at Bletchley Park. The Colossus was designed to break the complex Lorenz ciphers used by the Nazis during WWII. Each Colossus used 1,500 vacuum tubes and a series of pulleys transported continuous rolls of punched paper tape containing possible solutions to a particular code.

1953 IBM 701 IBM shipped its first electronic computer, the 701. During three years of production, IBM sold 19 machines to research laboratories, aircraft companies, and the federal government. The system used electrostatic storage, consisting of 72 Williams tubes with a capacity of 1024 bits each Rent: $11,900 monthly or more, depending upon storage capacity.

1961 IBM 1401 The IBM 1401 mainframe, the first in the series, replaced the vacuum tube with smaller, more reliable transistors and used a magnetic core memory. Demand called for more than 12,000 of the 1401 computers, and the machine´s success made a strong case for using general- purpose computers rather than specialized systems.

1965 DEC PDP-8 Digital Equipment Corp. introduced the PDP-8, the first commercially successful minicomputer. The PDP-8 sold for $18,000, one-fifth the price of a small IBM 360 mainframe. The speed, small size, and reasonable cost enabled the PDP- 8 to go into thousands of manufacturing plants, small businesses, and scientific laboratories.

1966 HP-2115 Hewlett-Packard entered the general purpose computer business with its HP-2115 for computation, offering a computational power formerly found only in much larger computers. It supported a wide variety of languages, among them BASIC, ALGOL, and FORTRAN.

1981 IBM PC 5150 IBM introduced its PC , igniting a fast growth of the personal computer market. The first PC ran on a 4.77 MHz Intel 8088 microprocessor and used Microsoft´s MS-DOS operating system.

1987 IBM PS/2 IBM introduced its PS/2 machines, which made the 3 1/2-inch floppy disk drive and video graphics array standard for IBM computers. The first IBMs to include Intel´s 80286 chip, the company had shipped more than 1 million units by the end of the year.

from this point on, nothing really changed… Everything just got faster smaller , and cheaper* *or as Simon Wardley would say – “Commoditized” so why is this relevant…

What just happened?

Commoditization of the stack Tubes, pulleys  transistors  integrated circuits & mass production Applications Operating System Hardware …common components enabling market expansion and increased competition

Step in Virtualization… Virtualization was first developed in the 1960s to partition large, mainframe hardware for better hardware utilization. Then we started buying lots of small, cheap servers and forgot all about virtualization… until they became: a) Difficult to manage (‘00s of physical servers, power, space, etc.) b) Massively under-utilized (as hardware became faster) Applications App App App Operating System OS OS OS Hardware Hardware …so we started to virtualize again, this time on commodity hardware

What about The Cloud?

The Cloud = Virtualization + Scale Enabled by massive economies of scale. As a result: • Costs are driven down 1.7 GB of RAM , 1 virtual core, 160GB • Competition is increased $0.085 per/hour • Innovation is increased …some call this Infrastructure-as-a-Service

It’s more than just hardware… Cloud services are also Applications & Platforms Applications Operating System/ Platform Hardware …more buzzwords: Platform-as-a-Service & Software-as-a-Service

Why should you care? your business Because cloud services enable to concentrate on what it does best. Which is probably not: Installing Software Configuring Servers Networks Backups System Management Deployment

We use a Cloud to represent the Internet and… …to hide complex infrastructure and systems. “We don’t care what happens in the cloud – it just works” Q: Should we care? A: Yes, and No

key elements to success in the cloud: • Transparency open communication • Reliability measured, reported • Standards lock-in, choice = TRUST …ask your cloud vendor these questions

So what’s next for The Cloud? Some predictions… The operating system will become irrelevant Amazon: Relational Database Service a database without server/os management overhead Everything will be available ‘as a service’ Spotify: A world of music music-as-a-service in the cloud A mix of very large and niche-focused providers Amazon: EC2, S3 etc. leading cloud innovation at a massive scale

Thank you

Past & Future Of The Cloud Nott Tues Nov 09

by Nickbarker on Nov 11, 2009

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Past & Future Of The Cloud Nott Tues Nov 09 — Presentation Transcript