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SCIENCE FOR CHANGE AGENTS

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Theory of Science. 2nd outing in Aarhus @ Kaos Pilots. Much fun had.

Theory of Science. 2nd outing in Aarhus @ Kaos Pilots. Much fun had.

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  • 1. @NICKWECREATESCIENCE FORCHANGEAGENTSNICK JANKEL, WECREATEKAOS PILOTSFEB 2013
  • 2. DAY 1THE USE AND MISUSEOF SCIENCE
  • 3. TODAYA FAST FORWARD THROUGH HISTORY, PARADIGMS AND COMPETINGSCHOOLS OF SCIENCE, STARTING OUT WITH ”NATURAL SCIENCE”,PROVABILITY/REPEATABILITY, MOVING THROUGH VARIOUS SCHOOLS/PHILOSOPHIES LIKE POSITIVISM, BEHAVIOURISM, ENDING UP WITHQUANTUM PHYSICS AND CHAOS-THEORY. MOVING THROUGH SOCIALSCIENCE, PSYCHOLOGY, ETC.A CHOICE OF LENSES AND METHODS
  • 4. WHY SCIENCE?WHAT SCIENCE?WHO SCIENCE?
  • 5. 5
  • 6. “Problems cannot be solved bythe same level of consciousnessthat created them.”ALBERT EINSTEIN
  • 7. UNKNOWNSCIENTIFIC RESEARCH INTO CAUSESCOMPLEX / ADAPTIVE SYSTEMSAR / AL / AISCENARIO PLANNINGETHNOGRAPHY
  • 8. “If we knew what we weredoing, it wouldn’t be called‘research’.”ALBERT EINSTEIN
  • 9. A BRIEFHISTORY OF SCIENCE
  • 10. “The hunt for the origins of modern science haslong been a favourite occupation of historians. Theydiffer widely about the key moment which sawscience’s birth, tracing it to the philosophers ofClassical Greece, or celebrating the canonicalachievements of 17th-century heroes such asGalileo, Bacon, Descartes, Boyle and Newton, orinsisting with great plausibility that until at least theearly 19th century, the typical institutions andtechniques of the natural sciences simply didn’texist. These different stories depend on widelydivergent versions of what distinguishes thescientific enterprise, whether method, personnel,hardware or expertise.”SIMON SCHAFFER
  • 11. XMAS, 1758(53 YEARS LATER)
  • 12. “This year the world is witnessingthe most satisfying phenomenonthat astronomy has ever provided,an event unique to this day,changing our doubts intocertainties, and our hypothesesinto demonstrations.”THE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
  • 13. “Science originated from thefusion of two old traditions, thetradition of philosophical thinkingthat began in ancient Greece andthe tradition of skilled crafts thatbegan even earlier and flourishedin medieval Europe. Philosophysupplied the concepts for science,and skilled crafts provided thetools.”FREEMAN DYSON
  • 14. ARISTOTLE
  • 15. SCHOLASTICS
  • 16. TELESCOPEGALILEO
  • 17. MICROSCOPEHOOK, LEEUWENHOEK
  • 18. MACHINESPENDULUMS, CALCULUS ETC.
  • 19. “The wonder is, not that thefield of stars is so vast, butthat man has measured it.”ANATOLE FRANCE
  • 20. COPERNICUS
  • 21. GIORDANO BRUNO
  • 22. GALILEO
  • 23. EMPIRICALOBSERVATION
  • 24. “Truth is sought for its own sake. Andthose who are engaged upon the questfor anything for its own sake are notinterested in other things. Finding thetruth is difficult, and the road to it isrough.”IBN AL-HAYTHAM
  • 25. INDUCTIONFRANCIS BACON
  • 26. “There are and can be only two ways ofsearching into and discovering truth.The one flies from the senses andparticulars to the most general axioms,and from these principles, the truth ofwhich it takes for settled andimmoveable, proceeds to judgment andto the discovery of middle axioms. Andthis way is now in fashion. The otherderives axioms from the senses andparticulars, rising by a gradual andunbroken ascent, so that it arrives at themost general axioms last of all. This isthe true way, but as yet untried.”FRANCIS BACON
  • 27. DESCARTESRATIONALISM / DEDUCTION
  • 28. CERTITUDEAVOID BIASES OF MIND & SENSES
  • 29. “Nature and Natures laws lay hid inthe night: God said, Let Newton be! and allwas light.”ALEXANDER POPE
  • 30. CLOCKWORKUNIVERSE
  • 31. “We may regard the present state of theuniverse as the effect of its past and thecause of its future. An intellect which atany given moment knew all of the forcesthat animate nature and the mutualpositions of the beings that compose it,if this intellect were vast enough tosubmit the data to analysis, couldcondense into a single formula themovement of the greatest bodies of theuniverse and that of the lightest atom;for such an intellect nothing could beuncertain and the future just like thepast would be present before its eyes.”PIERRE SIMON LA PLACE
  • 32. ENLIGHTENMENTVOLTAIRE, JEAN-JAQUES ROUSSEAU, LOCKE,HUME ETC
  • 33. AUTHORITYSCIENCE & REASONVS.TRADITION & RELIGION
  • 34. REASONBECOMES MORE AND MORE LIKEMECHANISTIC MATERIALISM
  • 35. 19TH CSCIENCE GETS PROFESSIONAL
  • 36. CHEMICALDEMISE OF PHLOGISTON THEORYACCURATE MEASUREMENT
  • 37. PERIODIC TABLEMENDELEEV
  • 38. ELECTROMAGNETISMFARADAY & MAXWELL
  • 39. EVOLUTIONDARWIN VS. PALEY
  • 40. EVOLUTIONDARWIN VS. PALEY
  • 41. FINCHESGRADUAL CHANGE (NO LEAPS)
  • 42. SOCIALDARWINISM
  • 43. “In the long history ofhumankind (and animal kind,too) those who learned tocollaborate and improvisemost effectively haveprevailed.”CHARLES DARWIN
  • 44. GERM THEORYPASTEUR, KOCH
  • 45. “[I]t seems probable that most ofthe grand underlying principles havenow been firmly established andthat further advances are to besought chiefly in the rigorousapplication of these principles to allthe phenomena which come underour notice…. An eminent physicisthas remarked that the future truthsof physical science are to be lookedfor in the sixth place of decimals.”ALBERT MICHELSON, 1894
  • 46. 20TH CSCIENCE GETS SPOOKY/ED
  • 47. RELATIVITYEINSTEIN
  • 48. CHEMIST’SWAR
  • 49. QUANTUMTHEORY
  • 50. ENTANGLEMENT147 MILES
  • 51. UNCERTAINTYLOCATION OR MOMENTUM BUT NOT BOTH
  • 52. INCOMPLETENESSCONSISTENT OR COMPLETE BUT NOT BOTH
  • 53. BIOLOGIST’SEUGENICS: NAZI ‘SCIENCE’
  • 54. LYSENKOISMSOVIET ‘SCIENCE’
  • 55. “He is responsible for theshameful backwardness of Sovietbiology and of genetics inparticular, for the disseminationof pseudo-scientific views, foradventurism, for the degradationof learning, and for thedefamation, firing, arrest, evendeath, of many genuinescientists”ANDREI SAKHAROV
  • 56. HOLOCAUSTINDUSTRIAL SCALE RATIONALISM
  • 57. “Evil is the product of the abilityof humans to make abstract thatwhich is concrete.”JEAN-PAUL SARTRE
  • 58. PHYSICIST’SWAR
  • 59. HIROSHIMAMANHATTAN PROJECT
  • 60. ARMYINJECTING DISEASE IN 1950
  • 61. COMPLEXINDUSTRIAL-MILITARY
  • 62. WWWSOCIAL MEDIA, SOCIAL REVOLUTIONS...
  • 63. WHAT ISSCIENCE?
  • 64. BODYOF KNOWLEDGE
  • 65. METHODACQUIRING KNOWLEDGE
  • 66. “Science is the systematic,rational acquisition of newknowledge.”HAAPARANTA & NIINILUOTO
  • 67. “[I]f you are going to teachpeople to make observations,you should show thatsomething wonderful cancome from them.”RICHARD FEYNMAN
  • 68. PROCESSFIND CURIOUS PHENOMENA / QUESTIONS
  • 69. PROCESSFIND CURIOUS PHENOMENA / QUESTIONSOBSERVE A LOTMAKE UP A THEORYDESIGN EXPERIMENT TO TEST THEORYANALYSETELL EVERYONE ABOUT ITREPEAT (BY OTHERS)
  • 70. “Science is an inherent contradiction —systematic wonder — applied to thenatural world. In its mundane form, themethodical instinct prevails and theresult, an orderly procession of papers,advances the perimeter of knowledge,step by laborious step… Who knowshow many scientific revolutions havebeen missed because their potentialinaugurators disregarded the whimsical,the incidental, the inconvenient insidethe laboratory?”THE GENERAL THEORY OF LOVE
  • 71. “Science is not formal logic - it needsthe free play of the mind in as greata degree as any other creative art. Itis true that this is a gift which canhardly be taught, but its growth canbe encouraged in those who alreadypossess it.”MAX BORN
  • 72. MYTHOSLOGOS
  • 73. “The most beautiful experiencewe can have is the mysterious -the fundamental emotion whichstands at the cradle of true artand true science.EINSTEIN
  • 74. “Science is the most exquisite tool thatwe’ve developed for measuring that hard,physical, material world. Then there is theworld of ideas which is inside our head. Iwould say that both of these worlds areequally real – they’re just real in differentways.”ALAN MOORE
  • 75. Mystery kidney disease in Central America
  • 76. WHAT MIGHT YOU WANT TO OBSERVE?WHAT DATA MIGHT YOU WANT?
  • 77. OBSERVEINDUCE A THEORYDEDUCE A PREDICTION
  • 78. THEORYTHEORY NEEDS TO CREATE HYPOTHESES TOTEST / VERIFY
  • 79. FALSIFICATIONSCIENCE NEEDS TESTABLE PREDICTIONS
  • 80. DEDUCTFROM GENERAL TO SPECIFIC
  • 81. INDUCTFROM SPECIFIC TO GENERAL
  • 82. WHAT PREDICTIONS MIGHT YOUR THEORYHOLD TRUE?WHAT EXPERIMENTS COULD YOU RUN?
  • 83. AVOIDSUBJECT BIASEXPERIMENTER BIASSELECTION BIAS
  • 84. RCT
  • 85. IN DEVPT
  • 86. WHAT RCTS COULD YOU RUN?
  • 87. CRITERIATESTABLEREPEATABLEOBSERVABLEPREDICTABLE
  • 88. CRITERIAOBJECTIVITYPUBLICITYCRITICAL THINKINGSELF-CORRECTIVENESSAUTONOMYPROGRESSIVENESS
  • 89. VALUE-FREE?AGENDA-LESS?
  • 90. “Science can (potentially at least)explain everything because itsways of trying to understand theuniverse by asking questions of itshould not leave any areas off-limits. The methods of openness,inquiry, curiosity, theory building,hypothesis testing and so on canbe adapted and developed toexplore and try to explainanything.”SUE BLACKMORE
  • 91. GRANDNARRATIVE
  • 92. PROGRESS!
  • 93. TELEOLOYGEIST
  • 94. CONTROL!PLANETPEOPLE
  • 95. DEFINE!IQBMIHAPPINESSGDP
  • 96. EXPLOIT!VALUEENERGY
  • 97. KNOWLEDGEPOWER
  • 98. “And God said: Let man havedominion of the fish of the sea,and over the fowl of the air.and over the cattle, and over allthe earth, and over everycreeping thing that creepethover the earth.”GENESIS 1, 26
  • 99. ESSENTIALTRUTH / IDENTITY
  • 100. FOUCAULTGENEALOGYDISCONTINUITY
  • 101. FOUCAULTINDUSTRIAL-MILITARY
  • 102. “A new mode of obtainingpower of mind over mind,in a quantity hithertowithout example.”JEREMY BENTHAM
  • 103. GAZECONSTRUCTS KNOWER AND KNOWN
  • 104. “Which speaking, discoursingsubjects – which subjects ofexperience and knowledge – doyou want to ‘diminish’ when yousay: ‘I who conduct thisdiscourse am conducting ascientific discourse, and I am ascientist’?”FOUCAULT
  • 105. SURVEILLANCE
  • 106. SOUSVEILLANCE
  • 107. HISTORICALVS ESSENTIAL
  • 108. DARWINIMPERIALISM & DOMINATION OF NATURE
  • 109. BIOLOGYNOW IN CONTEXT OF CO-OPERATION &COLLABORATION
  • 110. EVOLUTIONREVISITED WITHIN COMPLEXITY
  • 111. GENENOT ISOLATED
  • 112. 25,000HOW DO WE GET SO COMPLEX?
  • 113. EPIGENETICSDNA METHYLATION
  • 114. SCIENCECONSTRUCTEDSOCIALLY
  • 115. SSKEDINBURGH / BATH
  • 116. TACITAGREEMENTSKNOWLEDGE
  • 117. PARADIGMKUHNFOUCAULT EPISTEME
  • 118. KUHN...PRE-PARADIGMPARADIGM (NORMAL SCIENCE)ANOMALYCRISISRESPONSE & EMERGENCE OF NEW PARADIGM
  • 119. “A new scientific truth does nottriumph by convincing itsopponents and making them seethe light, but rather because itsopponents eventually die, and anew generation grows up that isfamiliar with it.”MAX PLANCK
  • 120. SHIFTSPTOLEMAIC COSMOLOGY - COPERNICANARISTOTELIAN PHYSICS - NEWTONIAN PHYSICSNEWTONIAN PHYSICS - EINSTEIN’S RELATIVITYCLASSICAL MECHANICS - QUANTUM MECHANICSLAMARCK - DARWIN’S THEORYSTATIC BRAIN - NEUROPLASTICITY
  • 121. REVOLUTIONINCOMENSURABILITY
  • 122. INVISIBLETEXT BOOKS SHOW LINEARITYCUMULATIVE KNOWLDEGE
  • 123. DECLINEEFFECT
  • 124. RELATIVISMAAARGH
  • 125. MATERIALISMSTOPS BEFORE BIG BANG AS NO OBJECT /MATERIAL
  • 126. CRITIQUESCIENTISM
  • 127. OBSERVESOMETHING
  • 128. SUBJECT /OBJECT
  • 129. VARIABLESPLITS UNITY OF EXPERIENCE
  • 130. “For is it not possible that science will create amonster? Is it not possible that an objectiveapproach that frowns upon personal connectionsbetween the entities examined will harm people,turn them into miserable, unfriendly, self-righteous mechanisms without charm orhumour? "Is it not possible," asks Kierkegaard,"that my activity as an objective [or critico-rational] observer of nature will weaken mystrength as a human being?" I suspect theanswer to many of these questions is affirmativeand I believe that a reform of the sciences thatmakes them more anarchic and more subjectiveis urgently needed.”PAUL FEYERABEND
  • 131. GOETHEDELICATE, EMPATHIC EMPIRICISM300 YEARS BEFORE COPENHAGENINTERPRETATION
  • 132. “It is a calamity that the use ofexperiment has severed nature from man,so that he is content to understand naturemerely through what artificial instrumentsreveal and by so doing even restricts herachievements...Microscopes andtelescopes, in actual fact, confuse mansinnate clarity of mind.”GOETHE
  • 133. TAWHIDISLAMIC SCIENCE
  • 134. DISENCHANTMENTOF WORLD
  • 135. “The fate of our times ischaracterized by rationalization andintellectualization and, above all, bythe disenchantment of the world.Precisely the ultimate and mostsublime values have retreated frompublic life either into thetranscendental realm of mystic life orinto the brotherliness of direct andpersonal human relations.”MAX WEBER, 1918
  • 136. SCIENCEVS PSEUDOSCIENCE
  • 137. CARGOCULT
  • 138. WHAT ISSOCIALSCIENCE?
  • 139. 156
  • 140. POSITIVISMDESCRIBECONTROLPREDICT
  • 141. COMTEPOST-REVOLUTION
  • 142. “From science comesprediction; from predictioncomes action.”COMMTE
  • 143. CHANGE!DISSATISFACTION WITH WHAT IS
  • 144. ANTIPOSITIVISMMAX WEBER
  • 145. “[Sociology is ] ... the science whose object isto interpret the meaning of social action andthereby give a causal explanation of the wayin which the action proceeds and the effectswhich it produces. [Never] is the meaningthought of as somehow objectively corrector true by some metaphysical criterion. Thisis the difference between the empiricalsciences of action, such as sociology andhistory, and any kind of a priori discipline,such as jurisprudence, logic, ethics, oraesthetics whose aim is to extract from theirsubject-matter correct or valid meaning.”MAX WEBER 1922
  • 146. HERMENEUTICSTURN
  • 147. GEISTESWISSENSCHAFTENNATURWISSENSCHAFTEN
  • 148. VERSTEHENVS. ERKLÄREN
  • 149. “Until we invent time-travel andreally get a handle on the multiverse,science tells us little about history,for example. Science may be able totell us why we like music, whycertain types of sound appeal morethan others, but not why Bach is thebest.”A REALIST PHILOSOPHY OF SOCIAL SCIENCE:EXPLANATION AND UNDERSTANDING
  • 150. LITERARYTURN
  • 151. AUTHORIS DEAD
  • 152. TRUTHS(S)RELATIVISMPOST MODERNISM (IRONY)
  • 153. TRUTHWHO OWNS IT?(AND WHAT DO THEY GET FROM IT?)
  • 154. FRANKFURTSCHOOL
  • 155. CRITICALTHINKING
  • 156. “The emancipation of humanbeings from the circumstancesthat enslave them.”HORKHEIMER
  • 157. “The means of communication, theirresistible output of theentertainment and informationindustry carry with them prescribedattitudes and habits, certainintellectual and emotional reactionswhich bind the consumers to theproducers and, through the latter tothe whole social system. The productsindoctrinate and manipulate; theypromote a false consciousness whichis immune against its falsehood...Thusemerges a pattern of one-dimensionalthought and behavior.”HERBERT MARCUSE
  • 158. 1-DMAN
  • 159. MARXISTTHEORY
  • 160. “Philosophers have onlyinterpreted the world invarious ways; the point is tochange it.”MARX
  • 161. DECONSTRUCTIONDERRIDA ETC.
  • 162. “The positivist thesis of unifiedscience, which assimilates all thesciences to a natural-scientific model,fails because of the intimaterelationship between the socialsciences and history, and the fact thatthey are based on a situation-specificunderstanding of meaning that can beexplicated only hermeneutically ...access to a symbolically prestructuredreality cannot be gained byobservation alone.”JURGEN HABERMAS
  • 163. “No pedagogy which is trulyliberating can remain distantfrom the oppressed by treatingthem as unfortunates and bypresenting for their emulationmodels from among theoppressors. The oppressed mustbe their own example in thestruggle for their redemption.”PAULO FREIRE 1970
  • 164. IS vs OUGHT
  • 165. SOCIALSCIENCETRUE? VALUE-FREE?
  • 166. “It is imperative that we give up theidea of ultimate sources ofknowledge, and admit that allknowledge is human; that it is mixedwith our errors, our prejudices, ourdreams, and our hopes; that all wecan do is to grope for truth eventhough it is beyond our reach. Thereis no authority beyond the reach ofcriticism.”KARL POPPER
  • 167. DIALOGICTRUTHBAKHTIN
  • 168. “What man needs is not just thepersistent posing of ultimatequestions, but the sense of what isfeasible, what is possible, what iscorrect, here and now. Thephilosopher, of all people, must, Ithink, be aware of the tensionbetween what he claims to achieveand the reality in which he findshimself.” HANS-GEORG GADAMER
  • 169. PRAGMATISMBETWEEN IDEALISM & EMPIRICISM
  • 170. “In Aristotle’s words phronesis is a‘true state, reasoned, and capable ofaction with regard to things that aregood or bad for man.’ Phronesis goesbeyond both analytical, scientificknowledge (episteme) and technicalknowledge or know-how (techne)and involves judgments and decisionsmade in the manner of a virtuososocial and political actor.”BENT FLYVBJERG
  • 171. PHRONESISWHERE ARE WE GOING?IS THIS DESIRABLE?WHO GAINS AND WHO LOSES, AND BYWHICH MECHANISMS OF POWER?WHAT, IF ANYTHING, SHOULD WE DOABOUT IT?
  • 172. MAPNOT NECESSARILY THE TERRITORY BUT ITCAN HELP GUIDE US PRACTICALLY
  • 173. PRACTICALPHILOSOPHY
  • 174. INTENTION KNOWLEDGE TERMS LENSES REDUCTIONISM EXPLANATION OF NATURALISM / REALISM EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS KNOW ‘TRUTH’ WHAT IS PROOF INDUCTION / DEDUCTIONPREDICT / CONTROL CORROBORATION OF EVIDENCE BASE INSTRUMENTALISM NATURE WHAT WORKS RCTS SEMIOTICS CONTEXT APPRECIATE / UNDERSTANDING OF HERMENEUTICS QUAL / QUANT EMPATHISE HOW THINGS ARE PO DISCOURSE ANALYSIS DECONSTRUCTION CRITICISM OF WHY STRUCTURALISM DISEMPOWER ‘ARCHEOLOGY’ THINGS ARE POST MODERNISM CRITICAL THEORY SYSTEMS / CYNEFIN INSIGHT INTO HOW TO ACTION RESEARCH IMPROVE EMANCIPATION CHANGE THINGS CRITICAL CONSCIOUSNESS
  • 175. DAY 2SYSTEMS THINKING &COMPLEXITY
  • 176. 13 vs 333
  • 177. HOW DO YOU SOLVE MY BACK ACHE?
  • 178. “We still have not seen muchmovement on... the deep systemicissues that cause the current cluster ofcrisis symptoms to be reproduced timeand again. I believe that the mostimportant root issue of the currentcrisis is our thinking: how wecollectively think.”C OTTO SCHARMER
  • 179. HOW WE THINKLINEAR, REDUCTIONIST, MECHANISTICSEPARATE FROM NATURE / EACH OTHERNATURE / PEOPLE THERE TO BE USEDEXIST TO COMPETE, CONSUME, PRODUCE
  • 180. LINEARITYCAUSE / EFFECTBLAME AGENTS / INTENTIONSREALISM / SCIENTISM
  • 181. “Reality is made up of circles, but wesee straight lines. Herein lies thebeginnings of our limitation as systemsthinkers.”PETER SENGE
  • 182. SYSTEMINDIVIDUAL PARTSPARTS AFFECT EACH OTHERWHOLE MORE THAN SUMPERSIST IN DIFFERENT SETTING
  • 183. “There can be no scientificstudy of society, either in itsconditions or its movements, ifit is separated into portions,and its divisions are studiedapart.”AUGUSTE COMTE
  • 184. SYSTEMSHAVE IDENTITIES WHICH RESIST CHANGERESPOND TO INTERVENTIONSATTEMPT TO SHAPE PEOPLE / PLACESCOMPLEX BEHAVIOURLEARNSYMBOLIC EXCHANGES
  • 185. SYSTEMICCOMPLEMENTARY INTERACTIONSTRIGGERS, DRIVERS, RESPONSESPATTERNS EMERGE OVER TIMESYSTEMS CAUSE BEHAVIOUR (VICE VERSA)MUTUAL RESPONSIBILITYINTENTIONS ARE NOT ALWAYS CLEAR
  • 186. DIALOGICCONSTRUCTED & REALTANGIBLE & CONCEPTUALCREATE & CREATED
  • 187. HARD!TAUGHT TO ANALYSE, MECHANISELINEAR MODE OF THINKING (LANGUAGE)BIASES & ASSUMPTIONSSYSTEMS MASQUERADE AS EVENTS
  • 188. systems images
  • 189. CHALLENGINGTAUGHT TO ANALYSELINEAR MODE (LANGUAGE)BIASES & ASSUMPTIONSMASQUERADE AS EVENTS
  • 190. “Unlike curiosity or empiricism, holismtakes a while to acquire and appreciate.”NICHOLAS CHRISTAKIS
  • 191. WHOLENESSBIOLOGY: VON BERTANALFY
  • 192. CONSTELLATIONSFAMILY DYNAMICSMUTUAL OWNERSHIPEMPATHIC DISCOVERY
  • 193. “Can we talk about the wholeness of life?Can one be aware of that wholeness if themind is fragmented? You cant be awareof the whole if you are only lookingthrough a small hole.”J KRISHNAMURTI
  • 194. MULTIVERSEMANY STAKEHOLDERS / PERSPECTIVEMULTIPLE INTENTIONSMANY FRAMES / INTERPRETATIONS
  • 195. INTERVENTIONSHIGHLY CHARGEDMANY SCOPING CHALLENGES
  • 196. MAPPINGSYSTEMS
  • 197. SYMPTOMSVS. ROOT ‘CAUSES’
  • 198. WEBOF CAUSATIONDEPENDENT ORIGINATION
  • 199. “No effect arises without cause, yet noeffect is predetermined, for its causesare multiple and mutually affecting.Hence there can be novelty as well asorder.”JOANNA MACY
  • 200. FEEDBACKOSCILLATIONS BETWEEN POSITIVE &NEGATIVE LOOPS (& INTENTIONS)THE PAST FEEDS INTO THE FUTURE
  • 201. BOUNDARIESWHERE?
  • 202. “A system is anything we happen todraw a boundary around. ”RICHARD VERYARD
  • 203. LAWUNINTENDED CONSEQUENCESSURPRISES!
  • 204. STATEPREFERRED OR NOTNOT NORMATIVE ‘RIGHT’ OR ‘WRONG’
  • 205. “Something hit me very hard once,thinking about what one little mancould do. Think of the Queen Mary - thewhole ship goes by and then comes therudder. And theres a tiny thing at theedge of the rudder called a trim tab.”BUCKMINSTER FULLER
  • 206. SWEETSPOTS
  • 207. STATUS QUOMAINTAINED BY OUTDATED ASSUMPTIONS
  • 208. PLATOCONVENIENT LIES
  • 209. DEFENDEDBY THE GROUP THINK OF THOSE IN POWER
  • 210. SWITCHED ON LEADERSHIPINNOVATION BREAKTHROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE BREAKTHROUGH DEPENDS ON HOW DEEP WE ARE WILLING TO GO INTO WHAT IS POSSIBLE BREAKTHROUGH BREAKTHROUGH © Wecreate 201
  • 211. SWITCHED ON LEADERSHIPINNOVATION BREAKTHROUGH BREAKTHROUGH BREAKTHROUGH © Wecreate 201
  • 212. “Jump to an answer - you might aswell jump to the river.”RUSSIAN PROVERB
  • 213. 238
  • 214. 239 THE BREAKTHROUGH SWITCH Breakthrough Opportunity What kind of headline ideas could Problem seize this opportunity?What is the problem, in human terms? Breakthrough Proposition What proposition emerges from this Proposition insight?What is the current proposition that results in the current proposition that resultsthis probelm?in this problem? Breakthrough Insight What is a more insightful, future-positive Assumptions belief?What do we have to believe to generateand validate this proposition? BREAKTHROUGH © wecreate 2012
  • 215. 240A BILLION PEOPLE DO NOT HAVE CLEAN WATER - CHOLERA EPIDEMICS KILLHUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS
  • 216. CHOLERA Breakthrough Opportunity What kind of headline ideas could seize this opportunity? ProblemWhat is the problem, in human terms? The Folded Sari A billion people do not have clean water - cholera epidemics kill hundreds of thousands. Breakthrough Proposition What proposition maximises accessibility, usability and enjoyability? Proposition Focus investment on empowering and enabling people (with media tools, comms etc)What is the current proposition [product offer, business model,org process] that leads to this problem? to use it in new ways to increase health - Raise money to buy and deliver virally. equipment (drill boreholes, pumps, lifestraws) to provide water. More Breakthrough Insight investment needed to maintain technology. What is a more powerful, liberating and abundant view of human nature /life? AssumptionsWhat do we have to believe to generate and validate this proposition? Existing equipment - the sari - can be re-New things / technology is the best way to solve purposed to solve problems. problems. The people welcome empowerment. Money solves problems. BREAKTHROUGH The people need help. . © wecreate 2012
  • 217. 24299% OF MICROBES FILTERED50% REDUCTION IN CHOLERA 70% STILL FILTERING 5 YEARS LATER + VIRAL SPREAD
  • 218. REAMP.ORG
  • 219. PM
  • 220. ANTSNEITHER INDIVIDUAL NOR GROUPBEHAVIOURSIGNALINGADAPTATION TO WEATHER / ATTACKHOW THROUGH EVOLUTION?
  • 221. COMPLEX /ADAPTIVEBRAINSHEART MUSCLEIMMUNE SYSTEMINSECT COLONIESGLOBAL ECONOMY
  • 222. “You have to be a certain kind of complex system toadapt, and you have to be a certain kind of complexsystem to coevolve with other complex systems. Wehave to understand what it means for complexsystems to come to know one another — in thesense that when complex systems coevolve, eachsets the conditions of success for the others. Isuspect that there are emergent laws about howsuch complex systems work, so that, in a global,Gaia- like way, complex coevolving systemsmutually get themselves to the edge of chaos,where theyre poised in a balanced state. Its a verypretty idea. It may be right, too.”STUART KAUFMANN
  • 223. COMPLEXNON-LINEAR COLLECTIVE BEHAVIOURFEEDBACK, SIGNALING & INFO PROCESSINGADAPTATION VIA LEARNING OR EVOLUTIONHAVE A HISTORYNESTED HIERARCHIESSELF-ORGANISED EMERGENCE
  • 224. WEBOF CAUSATION
  • 225. SELF-ORGANISATION ROBUSTNESS, FLEXIBILITY, SPONTANEOUS INNOVATION. SEMI-AUTONOMOUS FUNCTIONING NEEDING MINIMAL SUPERVISION
  • 226. CONTROLNATURAL RESPONSE TO FIX COMPLEXPROBLEMSBUT LOSE RESILIENCE & CREATIVE OFSYSTEM (AND FAILS)
  • 227. “If biologists have ignored self-organization, it is notbecause self-ordering is not pervasive and profound. Itis because we biologists have yet to understand how tothink about systems governed simultaneously by twosources of order, Yet who seeing the snowflake, whoseeing simple lipid molecules cast adrift in waterforming themselves into cell-like hollow lipid vesicles,who seeing the potential for the crystallization of life inswarms of reacting molecules, who seeing the stunningorder for free in networks linking tens upon tens ofthousands of variables, can fail to entertain a centralthought: if ever we are to attain a final theory inbiology, we will surely, surely have to understand thecommingling of self-organization and selection. We willhave to see that we are the natural expressions of adeeper order. Ultimately, we will discover in our creationmyth that we are expected after all.”STUART KAUFFMAN
  • 228. BIRDSSTAY CLOSEMATCH VELOCITYAVOID OBSTACLES
  • 229. BIRDSSTAY CLOSE (COHESION)MATCH DIRECTION & VELOCITY(ALIGNMENT)AVOID COLLISION (SEPERATION)
  • 230. WEATHERNON-LINEARNON-EQUILIBRIUM
  • 231. BUTTERFLYEFFECT
  • 232. CHAOSPOSITION, MASS, VELOCITY NOT ENOUGH TOPREDICT
  • 233. HUMANSDO NOT OPERATE IN EQUILIBRIUMS EITHER
  • 234. NETWORKSC. ELEGANSBRAINWEBHOLLYWOODNATIONAL GRIDMETABOLISMGENE EXPRESSION
  • 235. NETWORKSSMALL WORLD
  • 236. SCALE FREEHUBSHETEROGENOUS NODESSELF-SIMILARITY
  • 237. 1/n
  • 238. RICHGET RICHER
  • 239. EPIDEMIOLOGYSEXUAL HUBS IN HIV
  • 240. RESILIENCEEXCEPT FOR HUBS!
  • 241. FAILURECASCADING
  • 242. EDGEOF CHAOSMAXIMUM RATES OF GENERATION /EVOLUTION
  • 243. ORDEREDGE OFCHAOSDISORDER
  • 244. SWITCHED ON LEADERSHIPINNOVATION BREAKTHROUGH PREFERRED ORDER CURRENT ORDER BREAKTHROUGH BREAKTHROUGH © Wecreate 201 CHAOS
  • 245. LEADERSHIP AT EDGEOF CHAOSAGILEATTENTIONEXPERIMENTROBUSTOPEN TO MULTIPLE POSSIBILITIES
  • 246. MAKINGCHANGE IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS
  • 247. “Thinking more deeply aboutinstitutions and complexity raises majordilemmas for developmentinterventions. On the one hand, tacklingpoverty, achieving social justice andprotecting the environment clearlyrequire institutional transformation. Onthe other, institutions cannot beeffectively changed in a neatly planned,top-down manner.”JIM WOODHILL
  • 248. “Don’t disturb complicated systemsthat have been around for a very longtime. We don’t understand their logic… Leave it the way we found it, regardlessof scientific ‘evidence’.”N. NICHOLAS TALEB
  • 249. REMEMBERDYNAMIC, RICH INTERACTIONSDIFFERENT PEOPLE, DIFFERENT LEVELSFEEDBACK LOOPSNON-LINEAR, UNPREDICTABLEEMERGENT CHARACTERISTICSSMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE LARGE IMPACTSHISTORY CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE
  • 250. HUMANITYCHANGE CAN ONLY HAPPEN WITH PEOPLE
  • 251. RECEIVEDWISDOM DOESN’T ALWAYS APPLY
  • 252. CYNEFINIBM ET. AL.
  • 253. “Often the only way to improve acomplex system is to probe its limits byforcing it to fail in various ways.”KEVIN KELLY
  • 254. The Cynefin Model Complex Complicated Known causes and effectsUnderstandable root causes Use good practice Use emergent practice Focus on co-operation (harness principles) Focus on collaboration Sense. Analyze. RespondSense. Explore. Respond Disorder Chaotic Simple Predictable causes and effects Unknowable causes / effects Use best-practice Use new practice Focus on co-ordination Focus on co-creation Explore. Sense. Respond Sense. Categorize. Respond
  • 255. “Part of reinventing the sacred is to heal...injuries thatwe hardly know we suffer. If we are members of auniverse in which emergence and ceaseless creativityabound, if we take that creativity as a sense of God wecan share, the resulting sense of the sacredness of all oflife and the planet can help orient our lives beyond theconsumerism and commodification the industrializedworld now lives, heal the split between reason and faith,heal the split between science and the humanities, healthe want of spirituality, heal the wound derived fromthe false reductionist belief that we live in a world offact without values, and help us jointly build a globalethic. These are what is at stake in finding a newscientific worldview that enables us to reinvent thesacred.”STUART KAUFFMAN
  • 256. CONNECTNICK@WECREATE.CCWECREATE.CC (THIS WILL BE UP IN FEW DAYS)NICKJANKEL.COM