COMPLEXITY, CHAOS & CYNEFIN

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Science for Change Agents, Innovators & Entrepreneurs. Day 3

Complex systems in nature
Self-organisation & entropy
Chaos Theory & Modelling Chaos
Scale-free Networks & Power Laws
Designing resilient and self-organising human systems
The Cynefin Codel: Change Making in Simple, Complicated, Complex and Chaotic real-world contexts
MASTERCLASS FOR KAOS PILOTS, DENMARK

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  • Slide 57 is wrong. Complexity has no root causes and its PROBE-SENSE-RESPOND; Chaos is ACT-SENSE-RESPOND and is a transitionary. Co-ordination, co-operation, collaboration and co-creation are common to all domains.
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COMPLEXITY, CHAOS & CYNEFIN

  1. 1. @NICKWECREATE@NICKJANKELSCIENCE FORIMAGINEERSNICK JANKEL, WECREATEKAOS PILOTSFEB 2012
  2. 2. DAY 3CHAOS, COMPLEXITY &CYNEFIN
  3. 3. DRAW BREAKTHROUGH SYSTEM OF YOUR‘PROBLEM’SPOT ASSUMPTIONSIDENTIFY SWEETSPOTS
  4. 4. TODAYCOMPLEXITYWORK WITH CYNEFIN MODEL, UNDERSTAND DIFFERENCES BETWEENTHE FIELDS OF SIMPLE, COMPLICATED, COMPLEX AND CHAOS AND HOWTHERE IS DIFFERENT METHODS TO APPLY WHEN YOU WORK IN THEDIFFERENT FIELDS.BEING ABLE TO ANALYZE AND UNDERSTAND IF A PROBLEM IS IN THEVARIOUS FIELDS
  5. 5. HEARTCLARITY, POSSIBILITY
  6. 6. ANTSNEITHER INDIVIDUAL NOR GROUPBEHAVIOURSIGNALINGADAPTATION TO WEATHER / ATTACKHOW THROUGH EVOLUTION?
  7. 7. COMPLEX /ADAPTIVEBRAINSHEART MUSCLEIMMUNE SYSTEMINSECT COLONIESGLOBAL ECONOMY
  8. 8. BRAIN
  9. 9. WEBFRACTAL
  10. 10. COMPLEXNON-LINEAR COLLECTIVE BEHAVIOURFEEDBACK, SIGNALING & INFO PROCESSINGADAPTATION VIA LEARNING OR EVOLUTIONHAVE A HISTORYNESTED HIERARCHIESSELF-ORGANISED EMERGENCE
  11. 11. WEBOF CAUSATION
  12. 12. SELFORGANISATIONORDER FOR FREE!
  13. 13. ORDERCOMES FROM DISORDER
  14. 14. DEFIESENTROPY!
  15. 15. LIFEC, H, O, N, S, P, FE CREATE ALL
  16. 16. SELF-ORGANISATION ROBUSTNESS, FLEXIBILITY, SPONTANEOUS INNOVATION. SEMI-AUTONOMOUS FUNCTIONING NEEDING MINIMAL SUPERVISION
  17. 17. CONTROLNATURAL RESPONSE TO FIX COMPLEXPROBLEMSBUT LOSE RESILIENCE & CREATIVE OFSYSTEM (AND FAILS)
  18. 18. “If biologists have ignored self-organization, it is notbecause self-ordering is not pervasive and profound. Itis because we biologists have yet to understand how tothink about systems governed simultaneously by twosources of order, Yet who seeing the snowflake, whoseeing simple lipid molecules cast adrift in waterforming themselves into cell-like hollow lipid vesicles,who seeing the potential for the crystallization of life inswarms of reacting molecules, who seeing the stunningorder for free in networks linking tens upon tens ofthousands of variables, can fail to entertain a centralthought: if ever we are to attain a final theory inbiology, we will surely, surely have to understand thecommingling of self-organization and selection. We willhave to see that we are the natural expressions of adeeper order. Ultimately, we will discover in ourcreation myth that we are expected after all.”STUART KAUFFMAN
  19. 19. BIRDSSTAY CLOSEMATCH VELOCITYAVOID OBSTACLES
  20. 20. BIRDSSTAY CLOSEMATCH VELOCITYAVOID OBSTACLES
  21. 21. BIRDSSTAY CLOSE (COHESION)MATCH DIRECTION & VELOCITY(ALIGNMENT)AVOID COLLISION (SEPERATION)
  22. 22. WHAT ARE THE ‘RULES’ FOR KPBEHAVIOUR?
  23. 23. WEATHERNON-LINEARNON-EQUILIBRIUM
  24. 24. BUTTERFLYEFFECT
  25. 25. CHAOSPOSITION, MASS, VELOCITY NOT ENOUGH TOPREDICT
  26. 26. HUMANSDO NOT OPERATE IN EQUILIBRIUMS EITHER
  27. 27. NETWORKSC. ELEGANSBRAINWEBHOLLYWOODNATIONAL GRIDMETABOLISMGENE EXPRESSION
  28. 28. NETWORKSSMALL WORLD
  29. 29. SCALE FREEHUBSHETEROGENOUS NODESSELF-SIMILARITY
  30. 30. RICHGET RICHER
  31. 31. EPIDEMIOLOGYSEXUAL HUBS IN HIV
  32. 32. 1/n
  33. 33. FAILURECASCADING
  34. 34. RESILIENCEEXCEPT FOR HUBS!
  35. 35. PHASETRANSITIONS
  36. 36. EDGE OF STASIS INSTABILITY CHAOS DIVERSITY LOW OPTIMAL HIGH FLOW OF LOW OPTIMAL HIGH INFORICHNESS OF LOW OPTIMAL HIGHCONNECTIONS ANXIETY LOW OPTIMAL HIGH POWER HIGH OPTIMAL LOW
  37. 37. EDGEOF CHAOSMAXIMUM RATES OF GENERATION /EVOLUTION
  38. 38. COMPLEXITYCOSTS
  39. 39. BACKGAMMON
  40. 40. HOW DO YOU RATE ON THESE & WHICH ISSTRONGEST & WEAKEST?AGILEATTENTIONEXPERIMENTROBUSTOPEN TO MULTIPLE POSSIBILITIES
  41. 41. MAKINGCHANGE IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS
  42. 42. “Thinking more deeply aboutinstitutions and complexity raises majordilemmas for developmentinterventions. On the one hand,tackling poverty, achieving socialjustice and protecting the environmentclearly require institutionaltransformation. On the other,institutions cannot be effectivelychanged in a neatly planned, top-downmanner.”JIM WOODHILL
  43. 43. “Don’t disturb complicated systemsthat have been around for a very longtime. We don’t understand their logic… Leave it the way we found it, regardlessof scientific ‘evidence’.”N. NICHOLAS TALEB
  44. 44. REMEMBERDYNAMIC, RICH INTERACTIONSDIFFERENT PEOPLE, DIFFERENT LEVELSFEEDBACK LOOPSNON-LINEAR, UNPREDICTABLEEMERGENT CHARACTERISTICSSMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE LARGE IMPACTSHISTORY CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE
  45. 45. HUMANITYCHANGE CAN ONLY HAPPEN WITH PEOPLE
  46. 46. RECEIVEDWISDOM DOESN’T ALWAYS APPLY
  47. 47. CYNEFINIBM ET. AL.
  48. 48. “Often the only way to improve acomplex system is to probe its limits byforcing it to fail in various ways.”KEVIN KELLY
  49. 49. The Cynefin Model Complex Complicated Known causes and effectsUnderstandable root causes Use good practice Use emergent practice Focus on co-operation (harness principles) Focus on collaboration Sense. Analyze. RespondSense. Explore. Respond Disorder Chaotic Simple Predictable causes and effects Unknowable causes / effects Use best-practice Use new practice Focus on co-ordination Focus on co-creation Explore. Sense. Respond Sense. Categorize. Respond
  50. 50. BRAINSTORM PROBLEMS FOR EACH PARTOF THE CYNEFIN MODELWHAT KIND OF INTERVENTIONS /APPROACHES?
  51. 51. “Part of reinventing the sacred is to heal...injuries thatwe hardly know we suffer. If we are members of auniverse in which emergence and ceaseless creativityabound, if we take that creativity as a sense of God wecan share, the resulting sense of the sacredness of all oflife and the planet can help orient our lives beyond theconsumerism and commodification the industrializedworld now lives, heal the split between reason and faith,heal the split between science and the humanities, healthe want of spirituality, heal the wound derived fromthe false reductionist belief that we live in a world offact without values, and help us jointly build a globalethic. These are what is at stake in finding a newscientific worldview that enables us to reinvent thesacred.”STUART KAUFFMAN
  52. 52. HEARTCLARITY, POSSIBILITY
  53. 53. WHAT KIND OF CONTEXT ARE YOUWORKING IN?HOW DOES THIS IMPACT YOUR POTENTIALINTERVENTIONS?WHAT WOULD BE YOUR YEAR 1IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY?
  54. 54. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSFRANK BARRETT & DAVID COOPERRIDER (AI)PETER SENGE (SYSTEMS)STANFORD ENCYLOPEDIA OF PHILOSOPHYWIKIPEDIAMICHELLE HOLLIDAY (COMPLEXITY)BELTOWSKA & RAE (SYSTEMS IMAGES)AIDAN WARD & RICHARD VERYARD (SYSTEMS)RICHARD SEEL (COMPLEXITY)
  55. 55. CONNECTNICK@WECREATE.CCWECREATE.CC (THIS WILL BE UP IN FEW DAYS)NICKJANKEL.COM

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