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Games Going Forward
 

Games Going Forward

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Newzoo's Peter Warman's keynotes given @ iQU webinar: Games Going Forward, 2011

Newzoo's Peter Warman's keynotes given @ iQU webinar: Games Going Forward, 2011

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    Games Going Forward Games Going Forward Presentation Transcript

    •   Free to play games  Social gamingtoday Speakers      Cross-platform gamingGlobal and local opportunities
    • Despite the fact thatMore time is spent on games due tonew interfaces, game locations
    • And despite the fact thatGames have become a more social affair due to online connectivity, casual gaming
    • And despite the fact thatGames are now played by everyone due to free games, mobile screens
    • Issue: Total Consumer Spend is Flat US Total Consumer Spend 2009-2012 Total and by ‘platform’ in billion US dollars 2011 Estimate: $21.6bn Including pre-owned, DLC online, mobile Source:  Newzoo  Infographics  
    • Opportunity: New market segments US Total Consumer Spend 2009-2012 Total and by ‘platform’ in billion US dollars Online   Mobile   DLC   2011 Estimate: $21.6bn Including pre-owned, DLC online, mobile Source:  Newzoo  Infographics  
    • Challenge: Very comeptitive markets US Total Consumer Spend 2009-2012 Total and by ‘platform’ in billion US dollars Online   Mobile   DLC   2011 Estimate: $21.6bn Including pre-owned, DLC online, mobile Source:  Newzoo  Infographics  
    •   Free to play games  Social gamingtoday Speakers      Cross-platform gamingGlobal and local opportunities
    • So, What is Free to Play?‘Giving a consumer the chance to experience agame before he can decide to spend money onmaximizing his experience or community status.’Therefore: Every game platform is Free toPlay. Yes… also consoles.Only 44% of all US console gamers ever spendsmoney on console games
    • Share of paying players per ‘platform’ US: No “platform” scores above 45% Consoles show the same characteristic as F2P platforms50%   44% 45%45%   43%40%   36% 37%35%  30%   25%25%   22%20%  15%  10%   5%   0%   Casual  sites   Social   Mobile   MMO   Console   PC/Mac  Boxed   PC/Mac  Download   25m 19m 27m 22m 36m 32m 27m Source:  2011  Newzoo  Data  Explorer  
    • Share of paying players per ‘platform’ EU*: No “platform” scores above 49% F2P games show lower share of payers than US60%   48% 49%50%  40%   35% 32%30%   26%20%   18% 16%10%   0%   Casual  sites   Social   Mobile   MMO   Console   PC/Mac  Boxed   PC/Mac  Download   13m 9m 17m 13m 39m 35m 20m *  Aggregate  for  UK,  GER,  FR,  SP,  IT,  NL,  BE   Source:  2011  Newzoo  Data  Explorer  
    • Share of paying players per ‘platform’ Brazil: No “platform” scores above 40% F2P shows comparable share of payers but for 46m of 200m45%   40%40%   34% 35%35%   32%30%   28% 27% 27%25%  20%  15%  10%   5%   0%   Casual  sites   Social   Mobile   MMO   Console   PC/Mac  Boxed   PC/Mac  Download   Source:  2011  Newzoo  Data  Explorer  
    • Share of paying players per ‘platform’ South-Korea: No “platform” scores above 39% F2P games show higher share of payers than US45%   38% 39%40%   36%35%   32% 32% 31%30%   28%25%  20%  15%  10%   5%   0%   Casual  sites   Social   Mobile   MMO   Console   PC/Mac  Boxed   PC/Mac  Download   Source:  2011  Newzoo  Data  Explorer  
    • So, what is the problem? 2011   vs.  2010   2011   vs.  2010   2011   vs.  2010   revenues   revenues   revenues   $  2,571,000,000   +3%   €  473,000,000   +13%   $  270,000,000  P2P F2P P2P F2P P2P F2P 53% 47% 42% 58% 39% 61% players   players   players   39,400,000   +3%   8,700,000   +11%   23,400,000   payers   payers   payers   Source:   2011  MMO  Games  Market   22,300,000   +6%   4,500,000   +13%   only  shown  live  during  webinar   9,200,000   Report   $  /  month   €  /  month   www.newzoo.com/report   €  /  month   $  9.61   -­‐3%   €  8.76   +1%   $  2.45   2011  vs  2010   2011  vs  2010   Share  F2P   Share  F2P   2011  vs  2010   39%  >  47%   54%  >  58%   Growth  in  number  of  MMOs   F2P  spending   F2P  spending   +50%   +24%   +14%   Average  revenue  per  game    
    • Potential of Emerging Markets Brazilian Total Consumer Spend 2011 (est.) Total and by ‘platform’ in billion US dollars Source:  Newzoo  Infographics  
    • Potential of Emerging Markets Russian Total Consumer Spend 2011 (est.) Total and by ‘platform’ in billion US dollars Source:  Newzoo  Infographics  
    • Sizing global and local opportunitiesSizing The Total Market on Players or Revenues is not enoughIdeal: Players, Payers, Revenues by MMO Type/Genre and Business ModelStep 1 16%  of  8.8m  acave  MMO  gamers  like   United  States   Russia   shooters:  1.4m  Germans   Germany  Source:  2011  Newzoo  Data  Explorer,  2011  MMO  Games  Market  Report  
    • Sizing global and local opportunitiesSizing The Total Market on Players or Revenues is not enoughIdeal: Players, Payers, Revenues by MMO Type/Genre and Business ModelStep 2 Russia   32%  of  2.6M  acave  MMO  gamers  that  spend   United  States   money  in  F2P  MMOs  like  shooters:  830,000   Germany   Germans  (9%  of  all  acave  MMO  gamers)  Step 3Relate number of payers to money: approx. €55m annual marketSource:  2011  Newzoo  Data  Explorer,  2011  MMO  Games  Market  Report  
    • Sizing global and local opportunities Know your competitors and learn from their sucess Ideal: Monthly insight in the movers and shakers Fastest growing* F2P games September – October 2011 US Europe (incl. Russia) Latin America1.  League of Legends 1.  World Of Tanks 1.  Shaiya Riot Games Wargaming.net Aeria Games2.  Wizard101 2.  Grand Fantasia 2.  Priston Tale Kingsisle Aeria Games Hazit Online Games3.  Age of Conan Unchained 3.  League of Legends 3.  World of Tanks Funcom Riot Games Wargaming.net *Highest  Player  Acquisi3on  Growth  Rates   within  IQU’s  80M  player  profile  dBase.  
    • Is Free-To-Play The End of Retail Sales?
    • Free to play boxed game.Koch Media
    •   Free to play games  Social gamingtoday Speakers      Cross-platform gamingGlobal and local opportunities
    • Gaming on Social NetworksSocial networks as gaming destination show limited growthBut social features are part of every game now Total: $1.8bn Total: €200m 2011 estimate 2011 estimate Source:  Newzoo  2011  Games  Market  Revenue  Report  
    •   Free to play games  Social gamingtoday Speakers      Cross-platform gamingGlobal and local opportunities
    • Segmentation of game ‘platforms’Newzoo work in progress based on 200 variables of 20,000 gamers Factor  Analysis:  VisualisaRon  plaSorms  &  size  across  200+  topics   1   0.8   Social   Casual   0.6   Factor1   0.4   Mobile   MMOs   0.2   PC  Download   Consoles   0   PC  Boxed   -­‐0.2   0   0.2   0.4   0.6   0.8   1   -­‐0.2   Factor2  
    • Mobile is relevant for everyoneNewzoo work in progress based on 200 variables of 20,000 gamers Factor  Analysis:  VisualisaRon  plaSorms  &  size  across  200+  topics   1   0.8   Social   Casual   0.6   Factor1   0.4   Mobile   MMOs   0.2   PC  Download   Consoles   0   PC  Boxed   -­‐0.2   0   0.2   0.4   0.6   0.8   1   -­‐0.2   Factor2  
    • And opens up big screen opportunitiesNewzoo work in progress based on 200 variables of 20,000 gamers Factor  Analysis:  VisualisaRon  plaSorms  &  size  across  200+  topics   1   0.8   Social   Casual   online   0.6   TV   Factor1   0.4   Mobile   apps   MMOs   0.2   PC  Download   cloud   Consoles   0   PC  Boxed   -­‐0.2   0   0.2   0.4   0.6   0.8   1   -­‐0.2   Factor2  
    • Sizing & Seizing the opportunityCross-platform potential | Players Relative 78% of all MMO gamers plays mobile games Players DE          36.300.000    Overlap  with  -­‐-­‐>   Pladorm   Portals   Social   Mobile   MMOs   Consoles   Boxed   Downloaded   Portals          26.300.000         52%   66%   42%   70%   74%   61%   Social          16.500.000     83%       74%   52%   80%   78%   65%   Mobile          22.200.000     78%   55%       46%   78%   76%   63%   MMOs          13.200.000     only  shown  live  during  webinar   77%   only  shown  live  64%   83%   78%       85%   89%   Consoles          24.600.000     75%   54%   70%   45%       79%   58%   during  webinar   Boxed          26.000.000     75%   49%   65%   45%   75%       67%   Downloaded          20.000.000     81%   54%   70%   51%   72%   87%      
    • Sizing & Seizing the opportunityCross-platform potential | Players Absolute 10.2m MMO gamers that also play on mobile Players DE          36.300.000    Overlap  with  -­‐-­‐>   Pladorm   Portals   Social   Mobile   MMOs   Consoles   Boxed   Downloaded   Portals          26.300.000                        13.800.000    17.200.000      10.900.000      18.400.000      19.500.000            16.100.000     Social          16.500.000      13.800.000          12.200.000            8.500.000     13.200.000      12.800.000            10.700.000     Mobile          22.200.000      17.200.000                    12.200.000        10.200.000      17.300.000      17.000.000            13.900.000     MMOs          13.200.000      11.000.000                        8.500.000    10.200.000         only    shown  live  during  w  ebinar   11.200.000      11.800.000          10.200.000     only  shown  live   Consoles          24.600.000      18.400.000                    13.200.000    17.300.000      11.200.000          19.400.000            14.300.000     during  webinar   Boxed          26.000.000      19.500.000                    12.800.000    16.900.000      11.800.000      19.400.000                17.300.000     Downloaded          20.000.000      16.100.000                    10.700.000    13.900.000      10.200.000      14.300.000      17.400.000        
    • Sizing & Seizing the opportunityCross-platform potential | Payers 3.4m MMO gamers that also play on mobile Payers and spend money on both DE          24.000.000     Overlap  with  -­‐-­‐>   Pladorm   Portals   Social   Mobile   MMOs   Consoles   Boxed   Downloaded   Portals                4.600.000                3.600.000            3.300.000            3.900.000            3.800.000            3.800.000                  3.700.000     Social                3.100.000                                2.400.000                2.500.000            2.600.000            2.800.000            2.700.000                  2.600.000     Mobile                5.500.000                                2.900.000            3.800.000                4.200.000            4.800.000            4.800.000                  4.200.000     only  shown  live  during  webinar   MMOs                4.500.000                                2.800.000            3.200.000            3.400.000                3.800.000            3.800.000                  3.600.000     only  shown  live  during   Consoles          14.200.000                                3.900.000            5.100.000            5.700.000            7.100.000          12.300.000                  7.700.000     webinar   Boxed          17.000.000                                3.800.000            5.200.000            6.200.000            7.900.000      14.100.000                      9.100.000     Downloaded                7.500.000                                3.300.000            4.200.000            4.400.000            4.900.000            6.400.000            6.900.000        
    •   Free to play games  Social gamingtoday Speakers      Cross-platform gamingGlobal and local opportunities
    • Contact Reinout: reinout.te.brake@iqu.comContact Menno: menno.van.der.bil@iqu.comContact Peter: peter@newzoo.com
    • This might beyour lucky day.Two randomly selected participants receivethe 2011 Newzoo Games Market Report(value $1.350)
    • Thank You!Join us for quarterly key market update webinars! See you soon.