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Browsergames 2012 - Cross-Screen Impact of Free-to-Play
 

Browsergames 2012 - Cross-Screen Impact of Free-to-Play

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At the annual Browser Games Forum (BGF 2012) in Frankfurt, Peter Warman spoke about the current state of market and the need to take a step back to understand the changes in the market and identify ...

At the annual Browser Games Forum (BGF 2012) in Frankfurt, Peter Warman spoke about the current state of market and the need to take a step back to understand the changes in the market and identify opportunities. The keynote compares the Asian approach to online games focused purely on metrics with the traditional American way to focus on brand and IP. Only a combination of these approaches can bring success in the current competitive global market. We need to look at things in a new way.
Read more at http://www.newzoo.com/keynotes/browser-games-forum-2012-the-cross-screen-effect-of-free-to-play/#A45Obi2cgHJqtHEE.99

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    Browsergames 2012 - Cross-Screen Impact of Free-to-Play Browsergames 2012 - Cross-Screen Impact of Free-to-Play Presentation Transcript

    • Cross-Screen Impact of Free-to-Play Let’s lean back for a moment. Peter Warman | CEO Newzoo | peter@newzoo.com© 2012 Newzoo Offenbach, November 2012www.newzoo.com
    • Newzoo | The Total Picture Consumer, Transactional & Financial Data Newzoo research portfolio US EU* UK GER FR IT ES BE NL RU BR PL TR AUS JP CN Several USclients cannot be disclosed. © 2012 Newzoo 4
    • Consumer Research Data Interactive access to over 200 topics across 12+ countriesSelect topics & variables Select or compare countries Filters to cross analyzeExport to powerpoint or excel Relative and absolute numbers One year subscription | Free analysis support All German Data €4,000 5
    • Transactional Data | App Store DataTop 200 grossing and top 300 downloaded games iPhone iPad PlayStore Amazon Windows 8 Stores: End 2012: Over 30 datapoints per game. Easily select the publisher and see their games in the top 200 gross ranking and top 300 free and paid ranking across all app stores. Revenue and download data. Per country and per App store. Readily available: US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium, Russia, Brazil, Japan, China. Over 75 other countries at request. 12 monthly datasets | Free analysis support All German Data €7,000 6
    • investors “social gaming is dead”“social gaming was a bubble. Its gone now.”
    • Social Gaming vs Social Network GamingThe real world, The cloud & Social Networks connect all screens & games
    • Growth Brazil: 200M people60M active online, 40M Gamers, 54% Pays Social Network Gaming 2012 vs 2011 Source: The Rise of Social Network Gaming in Brazil (infographic)
    • Growth Market Turkey: 78M people30M active online, 21.8M Gamers, 52% Pays10
    • Top 20 Mobile Publishers August 2012Based on total iOS revenues in 9 countries across the globe © 2012 Newzoo/Distimo Based on total iOS (iPad/iPhone) revenues in the following countries 11
    • Top 20 Mobile Games August 2012Based on total iOS revenues in 9 countries across the globe © 2012 Newzoo/Distimo Based on total iOS (iPad/iPhone) revenues in the following countries 12
    • New Players with New Business ModelsZynga Casino | Zynga EA & Zynga moving to Casino Games as legislation changes and investor pressure rises. Zynga Poker, top 5 grossing mobile game in the world. 13
    • I promised that we would...Lean back
    • US EUROPE ASIAGames as Games as Product Service TREND 2012 IP ARPPU
    • US EUROPE ASIAGames as Games as Product Service IP TREND 2013 ARPPU
    • ARPPUARPPU
    • ARPPUIP ARPPU
    • IP ARPPU MASPIPPSPP Monthly Average Spending Per IP Per Screen Per User
    • Lean back and…..Look at the Global/Total Picture
    • On The SurfaceThings seem calm … (data not final) Global Games Market | 2012 Asia-Pacific North America $19.3bn $20.7bn +13% CAGR +1% CAGR Total Middle-East $68bn & Africa +7% CAGR $1.4bn +21% CAGR Latin America $5.4bn Europe +14% CAGR $21.3bn Source: Newzoo 2012 Games Market Revenue Report +3% CAGR 23
    • Under This SurfaceThere is a lot going on… (data not final) Casual Websites PC/Mac Download $7.7bn $8.1bn -1% CAGR +2% CAGR Social Networks $5.5bn +5% CAGR PC/Mac Boxed Total Mobile $8.7bn $68bn Devices -11% CAGR +7% CAGR $6.3bn +32% CAGR Consoles $20.2 MMOs -2% CAGR $11.6bn +21% CAGR Source: Newzoo 2012 Games Market Revenue Report 24
    • Lean back and…..Think about how to monitor change
    • Monitoring Change | KPIsTo size and seize future growth opportunities Most reports on the games market focus on number of players and/or money. To monitor and understand the changes in the games market this is not enough, especially now free-to-play business models are becoming so dominant. We always also report on Time and number of Paying Gamers (Payers) to provide more perspective. Games Market Growth 27
    • time payers players money© 2012 Newzoo 28
    • Key Growth Indicators | With Key Trends In Betweenpayers time 2011-2012 2011-2012 +26% +36% 2011-2012 2011-2012 +8% +1% players money© 2012 Newzoo 29
    • Key Growth Indicators | With Key Trends In Betweenpayers time 2011-2012 2011-2012 2011-2012 2011-2012 +15% +26% +19% +36% 2011-2012 2011-2012 2011-2012 2011-2012 +16% +8% +6% +1% players money© 2012 Newzoo 30
    • Key Growth Indicators | With Key Trends In Betweenpayers time 2011-2012 2011-2012 2011-2012 2011-2012 +15% +19% +19% +2% 2011-2012 2011-2012 2011-2012 2011-2012 +16% +6% +6% +4% players money© 2012 Newzoo 31
    • Lean back and…..Try to understand change
    • Key Growth Indicators | With Key Trends In Betweenpayers time bizz models free screens services organisation access value profit players money© 2012 Newzoo 33
    • Luxembourg, here we are This place is about more than money…. Consumers want continuous access games that are, in principle, free. Ideally, their game continuously improves and expands, as a service. If the game gives them value, they have no problem to spend money. access free service value screens bizz models organisation profit Game companies need to make their games accessible via all screens as well as adapt their business models. The latter requires organisational change. Hard but it is the only way to remain profitable in this competitive market.© 2012 Newzoo 34
    • New Players with New Business ModelsWorld of Tanks | Wargaming.net Free-to-play MMO surpasses $100M revenues in 2012 Retail: Free-to-play boxed MMOs 35
    • New Players with New Business ModelsLeague of Legends | Riot Games (Tencent) Most played game in the world with 1bn hours per month, grossing >$100M. Free-to-play. Trend: Asian acquisitions Tencent owns RiotGames. DOTA2 still with Valve. 36
    • Community Services Crucial to New GamesLeague of Legends | Competitions & Viewer Mode 37
    • Community Services Crucial to New GamesLeague of Legends | Competitions & Viewer Mode 8% growth in users per month and even Watch Live Games faster growth in time per month 38
    • New Players with New Business ModelsDust 514 | CCP CCP (Eve Online) launches Free-to- play PS3 game this year. One of the first triple A Free-to-play games on console 39
    • New Players with New Business ModelsKingdoms of Camelot | Kabam Kabams first mobile game is best grossing iOS game in the world, on track to gross over $100M annual revenues Free-to-play business model is well balanced 40
    • F2P vs P2P on MobileExample: Infinity Blade I/II vs Kingdoms of Camelot iOS Downloads iOS Revenues US US © 2012 Newzoo/Distimo F2P: Downloads drop but revenues keep rising. P2P: Price changes have big effect (April). NB: iPad revenues overtake iPhone revenues for immersive mid-core games 41
    • Lean back and…..Think about what free-to-play means
    • Quote of the monthWhy big publishers struggle amidst all the change “free-to-play is not abusiness model but a way to run your business” - Peter Warman, CEO Newzoo Just check out how Star Wars the Old Republic was launched compared to League of Legends (Wikipedia) 43
    • The Effect of Free-to-Play | USPlayers, Payers & Average Spending | US 2010-2013(Paying) Players Avg. Spend / Month Source: Newzoo 2012 Games Market Revenue Report / Custom 44
    • The Effect of Free-to-Play | US + EUPlayers, Payers & Average Spending Source: GlobalCollect/Newzoo Whitepaper August 2012 45
    • German MMO market shows resilienceIn the US, spending on MMOs declines from $27 to $17 a month46
    • The Effect of Free-to-PlayOm Payment Methods MMO Payment Methods Transaction volume and value (flow) | Q3 2012 Frequency Amount P2P F2P* * Free to play models (incl. F2P Subs, F2P Virtual Currencies, Item Selling, Extensions/Extra levels)
    • Lean back and…..Think about Amazon
    • Old Players vs New Business ModelsAmazon.com/Freetoplay | Amazon Amazon becoming one of worlds biggest players in games. Huge rollout in Europe and moving with the new bizz models. Price: $0.00 NB. The Game Connect service www.amazon.com/freetoplay 49
    • Old Players vs New Business ModelsAmazon.com/Freetoplay | Amazon
    • Lean back and…..Think how we can predict, size and seize futureopportunities
    • Cross-Platform GamingOf Paying MMMO Gamers * Highest cross-platform spending ratios Source: GlobalCollect Whitepaper Cr0ss-Screen Monetization of Games *Europe as aggregate of UK, Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium 52
    • Consumers vs ScreensNewzoo Screen Segmentation Model TM 21% of EU gamers (2012) play on all four screens 22% of US gamers (2012) play on all four screens market growthAll Screens Connected By:• Social Networks 17% of German gamers (2012)• The Cloud play on all four screens• The Real World 53
    • The Computer Screen | 2012Newzoo Screen Segmentation Model TM2.62B 35.9Meuro players59% 93%81% 68%payers hrs/week20.0M 267M 54
    • The Entertainment Screen | 2012Newzoo Screen Segmentation Model TM1.0B 20.8Meuro players23% 54%55% 12%payers hrs/week13.5M 46.3M 55
    • The Personal Screen | 2012Newzoo Screen Segmentation Model TM276M 22.3Meuro players6% 58%30% 12%payers hrs/week7.4M 48.8M 56
    • The Floating Screen | 2012Newzoo Screen Segmentation Model TM514M 11.5Meuro players12% 30%32% 8%payers hrs/week8.0M 30.1M 57
    • Lean back and…..Compare two similar games
    • Cross-Screen SpendingOf (paying) players per IP US UK GER FR IT ES BE NL RU BR PL TR AUS World of Tanks Bubble Shooter
    • Cross-Screen SpendingOf World of Tank players US UK GER FR IT ES BE NL RU BR PL TR AUS 4.1M WoT players also spend money on games on their 52% 49% phone or tablet. 30% 7.9M WoT players spend money on MMO games (WoT or any otherF2P or P2P MMO). MMO Spenders 7,900,000 Players 13,500,000
    • Cross-Screen SpendingOf BubbleShooter players US UK GER FR IT ES BE NL RU BR PL TR AUS 5.9M Bubble Shooter players also spend money on games 51% 52% on their phone or tablet. 22% 11.4 M Bubble Shooter players spend money on casual game websites (regardless of which game) Online Casual Spenders 11,400,000 Players 40,600,000
    • Key Take-AwayPaying players spend money across screens “your paying playersspend a maximum of 30% of their budget on your single screen game” - Peter Warman, CEO Newzoo 62
    • Lean back and…..Think about mobile….
    • Tablets, Handhelds & SmartphonesCompeting or complementary 95M Americans Growth of segmentsSmartphone, Tablet or Handheld Console Gamers In 6 months: March 2012 – September 2012 +23% +9% -8% Source: Newzoo Mobile Trend Report, October 2012 64
    • Mobile Gamers | EU vs Germany 2012Smartphones vs Tablets vs Handhelds 62.4M European* Gamers (47% of all gamers) |20.7M German Gamers (54%) Smartphone, Tablet or Handheld Console Gamers * Aggregate of UK, GER, FR, NL, BE, IT Smartphones Smartphones Tablets Tablets 42% 7% 4% 50% 6% 4% 4.1M 2.4M 1.3M 0.7M 26.4M 10.1M 5% 3% 4% 2% 3.2M 1.9M 0.9M 0.4M 20% 17% 12.3M 3.6M 19% 18% 12.1M 3.7M Handheld consoles Handheld consoles Source: Newzoo Mobile Trend Report, November 2012 65
    • Mobile Gamers per Country Phone & Tablet Gamers and Paying Gamers aged 10 to 50. US UK GER FR BE NL IT ES RU BR TUR POL 96M 22M 21M 14M 2.0M 4.0M 11M 12M 26M 27M 15M* 7.5M* share ofall gamers 69% 79% 68% 62% 53% 62% 69% 77% 70% 71% 69% 68% A small but growing share of mobile gamers spend money Non-Paying Mobile Gamers Majority of In growth markets paying mobile such as Turkey the gamers in the US share of male payers is male: 61% is highest: 70% 33% 38% 35% 37% 34% Paying Gamers 22M 30% 3.8M 31% 10M 5.2M 28% 32M 6.3M 23% 22% 3.8M 25% 20% 2.1M 3.2M 0.8M 6.4M 0.4M Source: Newzoo , September 2012 Consumer Research * Source: Newzoo, March/April 2012 Consumer Research Data 66
    • Top 5 Games Germany September 2012Based on total iPad, iPhone and Google Play store revenues Rank Game Last Month Publisher 1 The Simpsons™: Tapped Out 1 Electronic Arts 2 Clash of Clans 15 Supercell 3 Hay Day 9 SuperCell 4 Poker by Zynga 5 Zynga 5 Lords & Knights - Medieval Strategy MMO 4 XYRALITY GmbH Rank Game Last Month Publisher 1 Clash of Clans 10 Supercell 2 The Simpsons™: Tapped Out 1 Electronic Arts 3 Hay Day 5 SuperCell 4 Lords & Knights - Medieval Strategy MMO 4 XYRALITY GmbH 5 Ice Age Village 2 Gameloft Rank Game Last Month Publisher 1 Rage of Bahamut 2 Mobage 2 Ice Age Village 1 Gameloft 3 Arcane Empires 584 Kabam 4 Airport City 3 Game Insight International 5 Zynga Poker 4 Zynga
    • Lean back and…..Think how we can help each other
    • my wish is
    • Come visit our new office (when its done)
    • And lean back for a monent (with coffee or beer)
    • We need each other(to make sure these guys understand our stuff)
    • peter@newzoo.com
    • Cross-Screen Impact of Free-to-Play Lean forward vs lean back Peter Warman | CEO Newzoo | peter@newzoo.com© 2012 Newzoo Offenbach, November 2012www.newzoo.com