Jacques Vallin "Demographic Transition"

New Economic School Public SeminarsThe end of the demographic transition: Theory and reality Jacques Vallin Institut national d’études démographiques (INED), Paris NES, Moscow, January 26, 2012

Three points• 1. The last phase of the demographic transition is also a period of sharpening disequilibria• 2. The « end » of the transition is not the end of its consequences• 3. The accomplishment of the theory is less the end of the historical process than the death of the explanatory paradigm

I. The last phase of the demographic transition is also aperiod of sharpening disequilibria

World population trends Population (million)10 000 8 000 2000 6 000 6 billions 4 000 2 000 1950 2.5 Billions 0 - 100 000 - 80 000 - 60 000 - 40 000 - 20 000 0 year

Rate (per 1000) 50 45 40 Birth rateDemographic 35transition in 30 Mortality ratse England 25 20 15 10 Natural growth rate 5 0 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940

UN World Population Prospects Population (billion)111098 LDCs7 WORLD6 LDCs,5 exclud. least43 Least DCs21 MDCs0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

II.The « end » of the transition is not the end of its consequences

Trends in the share of 60+ population Proportion (%) 40 35 Projection with 2,1 children per woman and a 85 year life expectancy 30 25 France 20 15 10 5 China 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

III.The accomplishment of the theory isless the end of the historical process than the death of the explanatory paradigm

Population expected in 2000 according tothe date of UN population prospect, since 1958 Population (billion) 7200 6800 World 6400 6000 5600 5200 4800 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Haute Moyenne BassePopulation (billion) Population (billion)6000 1600 Less developed countries More developed countries5500 15005000 14004500 13004000 12003500 1100 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Haute Moyenne Basse Haute Moyenne Basse

UN population prospects 201016 000 000 High14 000 00012 000 000 Medium10 000 000 8 000 000 6 000 000 Estimates Low 4 000 000 2 000 000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Some extreme assumptions• Fertility – Only child – Higher age at childbearing (from 30 to 50)• Mortality – Life expectancy, the 85-year « limit » will be overpassed : in what extent ? When ? 150 years by 2100

Four scenarii• S1: TFR=1, e0=85 – Total population : 200 million after 200 years, and will disappear – Age structure: 8% 0-19, 36% 20-59, 56% 60+• S2: TFR=2.1, MAC=50, e0=85 – At the end age structure: 24 %, 46 %, 30 % – But sharp population drop, – Late stabilisation, sharp population drop, violent fluctuations• S3: e0=150, TFR=2.1 – Age structure: 24 %, 46 %, 30 % – But important increased population• S4: e0=150, TFR=1 – Population decrease will start later than in S1 – Age structure: 2%, 7%, 91% (with 74% 100+)

Conclusion• The DT theory was a marvellous tool for the understanding of past trends and for assuming population prospects but it becomes of no use when TFR reaches the replacement level• More than ever economic development is crucial for the poorest countries that are still under the pressure of high population growth rates• Everywhere it becomes urgent to prepare societies to face future drastic population ageing• If a quiet demographic future is desired, a lot is to be done in many countries to imagine efficient population policies

Thank you for attention

World population trendsMillion people12000100008000600040002000 0 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 year

Jacques Vallin "Demographic Transition"

by Российская экономическая школа on Jan 27, 2012

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