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DUAL CYCLE MODELOF INNOVATION ANDSTRATEGICFORESIGHTBen Flavel
= Good Luck!(Attention + Intention) x PurposeOpportunity
“To be a challenger once, it is enough tochallenge the orthodoxies of theincumbents; to be a challenger twice, afirm must ...
THE DUAL CYCLE MODEL
6 THINGS GOODORGANISATIONS DO
1. CONDUCT SWOT ANALYSES
2. FOCUS ON CUSTOMER NEEDS3. INNOVATE AND IMPROVE BASED ON WHAT THEYKNOW
4. CHALLENGE THE WAY IT DOES THINGS5. IMPROVE INTERNAL PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS
6. INJECT THESE 5 BEHAVIORS INTO ITSCULTURE
If I had asked my customerswhat they wanted, they wouldhave said a faster horse.Henry Ford
QUICK QUIZ:WHICH OF THESETHREE COMPANIESAPPLIES A DUALCYCLE MENTALITY?a. DELLb. HPc. APPLE
DOING NOTHING ISNOT AN OPTION!
WHAT GREATORGANISATIONSDO…
Great organisations…• Develop a continuous ability toregenerate its own core strategies• Re-invent entire industries• Are ...
2 CYCLES IN MOTION
3M BRAND ESSENCEOfficial:Harnessing the chain reaction of newideasUnofficial:“habitually habitate the inhabitable”
TRANSFORMATIONALOPPORTUNITIES CREATE NEWINDUSTRIESE x is ting produc ts /T e c hnolog yN e w produc ts /T e c hnolog yE x ...
We have an amazing ability to over-estimatewhat we can achieve in one year and yetunder-estimate what we can achieve in te...
THE PATHWAYS ARE NOT ALWAYS CLEAR
“Uncertainty is anuncomfortable position. Butcertainty is an absurd one."Voltaire
WHEN CERTAINTYBECOMESMADNESS…
DOES THE DUAL CYCLE MODELEXIST IN OUR ORGANISATION?How strong is ourvision?Do we know “whatwe do?”“how else can we dowhat ...
It’s your path, so don’t fuck it up!…but if you do, that’s OK too.
Dual Cycle Model of Innovation and Strategic Foresight
Dual Cycle Model of Innovation and Strategic Foresight
Dual Cycle Model of Innovation and Strategic Foresight
Dual Cycle Model of Innovation and Strategic Foresight
Dual Cycle Model of Innovation and Strategic Foresight
Dual Cycle Model of Innovation and Strategic Foresight
Dual Cycle Model of Innovation and Strategic Foresight
Dual Cycle Model of Innovation and Strategic Foresight
Dual Cycle Model of Innovation and Strategic Foresight
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Dual Cycle Model of Innovation and Strategic Foresight

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Ever wondered why some organisations have the ability to re-invent entire industries, time and time again?
Where does this source of continuous innovation and foresight come from?
Ever considered that these organisations have two separate innovation cycles in motion?

Good organisations are able to innovate and improve what they know. What the great organisations are able to achieve is the continuous ability to regenerate its own core strategies, based on what they don’t yet know, re-inventing entire industries along the way.

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  • We have an amazing ability to over-estimate what we can achieve in one year and yet under-estimate what we can achieve in ten. Companies find it risky to think too far ahead. Ideas become “scary”, “dangerous”.Limiting futures thinking to what we can prove now, based on what we know, is more dangerous. Exponential thinking.
  • How strong is our vision?Do we know “what we do?”Do we ask “how else can we do what we do?”Do we encourage questions?Do we challenge our core competencies?Are we willing to change the way we do things?Do we continually draw in information to better understand the future of our industry?What happens when things fail?Can we identify the entrepreneurs that will drive change?
  • Transcript of "Dual Cycle Model of Innovation and Strategic Foresight"

    1. 1. DUAL CYCLE MODELOF INNOVATION ANDSTRATEGICFORESIGHTBen Flavel
    2. 2. = Good Luck!(Attention + Intention) x PurposeOpportunity
    3. 3. “To be a challenger once, it is enough tochallenge the orthodoxies of theincumbents; to be a challenger twice, afirm must be capable of challenging itsown orthodoxies.To reinvent its industry a second time, achallenger must regenerate its corestrategies.”Gary Hamel – Competing for the future
    4. 4. THE DUAL CYCLE MODEL
    5. 5. 6 THINGS GOODORGANISATIONS DO
    6. 6. 1. CONDUCT SWOT ANALYSES
    7. 7. 2. FOCUS ON CUSTOMER NEEDS3. INNOVATE AND IMPROVE BASED ON WHAT THEYKNOW
    8. 8. 4. CHALLENGE THE WAY IT DOES THINGS5. IMPROVE INTERNAL PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS
    9. 9. 6. INJECT THESE 5 BEHAVIORS INTO ITSCULTURE
    10. 10. If I had asked my customerswhat they wanted, they wouldhave said a faster horse.Henry Ford
    11. 11. QUICK QUIZ:WHICH OF THESETHREE COMPANIESAPPLIES A DUALCYCLE MENTALITY?a. DELLb. HPc. APPLE
    12. 12. DOING NOTHING ISNOT AN OPTION!
    13. 13. WHAT GREATORGANISATIONSDO…
    14. 14. Great organisations…• Develop a continuous ability toregenerate its own core strategies• Re-invent entire industries• Are able to train the culture tochallenge internal and externalassumptions• Create a culture of foresight bychallenging the competencies thatmade the organisation successfulin the first place
    15. 15. 2 CYCLES IN MOTION
    16. 16. 3M BRAND ESSENCEOfficial:Harnessing the chain reaction of newideasUnofficial:“habitually habitate the inhabitable”
    17. 17. TRANSFORMATIONALOPPORTUNITIES CREATE NEWINDUSTRIESE x is ting produc ts /T e c hnolog yN e w produc ts /T e c hnolog yE x is tingMa rke tsN e wMa rke tsAdjacentOpportunitiesExploit current assetsand capabilitiesTransformationalOpportunitiesCreate new marketsand new productsStatus QuoGrow marketshare and profit(expansion, not newbusiness development)AdjacentOpportunitiesIncrease primarymarket demand
    18. 18. We have an amazing ability to over-estimatewhat we can achieve in one year and yetunder-estimate what we can achieve in ten.Companies find it risky to think too far ahead.Ideas become “scary”.Limiting futures thinking to what we canprove now, based on what has been, is trulydangerous.
    19. 19. THE PATHWAYS ARE NOT ALWAYS CLEAR
    20. 20. “Uncertainty is anuncomfortable position. Butcertainty is an absurd one."Voltaire
    21. 21. WHEN CERTAINTYBECOMESMADNESS…
    22. 22. DOES THE DUAL CYCLE MODELEXIST IN OUR ORGANISATION?How strong is ourvision?Do we know “whatwe do?”“how else can we dowhat we do?”Do we encourage questions? Do we challenge our corecompetencies?Are we willing to change theway we do things?Do we metascan? What happens when things fail?Can we identify theentrepreneurs that willdrive change?
    23. 23. It’s your path, so don’t fuck it up!…but if you do, that’s OK too.
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