Indian Civil Aviation Industry

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Microeconomics report on Indian Aviation Industry

Microeconomics report on Indian Aviation Industry

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  • The aviation sector is one of the major economic drivers for prosperity, development and employment in a country. The rapidly expanding aviation sector in India handles about 2.5 billion passengers across the world in a year; moves 45 million tones (MT) of cargo through 920 airlines, using 4,200 airports and deploys 27,000 aircraft. Today, 87 foreign airlines fly to and from India and five Indian carriers fly to and fro from 40 countries.
  • The Indian Aviation Industry has been going through a turbulent phase over the past several years facing multiple headwinds – high oil prices and limited pricing power contributed by industry wide over capacity and periods of subdued demand growth. Over the near term the challenges facing the airline operators are related to high debt burden and liquidity constraints - most operators need significant equity infusion to effect a meaningfulimprovement in balance sheet.Jul-2012 load factors data shows that in addition to transporting the largest number of passengers in the month, IndiGo, as usual, reported the strongest load factor at 75.5%, although this was down significantly from 86.5% in Jun-2012, reflecting seasonal trends as the peak summer season ends and the domestic market enters its lean season. No airline reported month-on-month load factor gains in Jul-2012, while IndiGo and Air India were the only two airlines which reported marginal increases in load factors in Jun-2012. The sharpest decline, as expected, was seen at Kingfisher, reporting load factors of only 53% despite operating a quarter of the number of aircraft it did a year earlier. 
  • From Brent (which decides jet fuel prices) at USD 126 a barrel in May this year, the price of crude had fallen to USD 90 in July 2012. During this period, ATF prices declined by 7.5 per cent. From July till date, Brent price has gone from USD 90 to USD 112, and oil public-sector undertakings have hiked prices by 16 per cent.
  • Increased airport charges are expected to be introduced at other airports also.
  • Jul-2012 load factors data shows that in addition to transporting the largest number of passengers in the month, IndiGo, as usual, reported the strongest load factor at 75.5%, although this was down significantly from 86.5% in Jun-2012, reflecting seasonal trends as the peak summer season ends and the domestic market enters its lean season. No airline reported month-on-month load factor gains in Jul-2012, while IndiGo and Air India were the only two airlines which reported marginal increases in load factors in Jun-2012. The sharpest decline, as expected, was seen at Kingfisher, reporting load factors of only 53% despite operating a quarter of the number of aircraft it did a year earlier. 
  • High Cost of operations: high price of fuels, airport charges, taxes. Also to carefully review their management models.
  • High Cost of operations: high price of fuels, airport charges, taxes. Also to carefully review their management models.
  • Typically, a company that achieves economies of scale lowers the average cost per unit through increased production since fixed costs are shared over an increased number of goods.Airline business run very deep fixed costs - fleet of aircraft whether to own or lease & how many - fuel costs are a very high fixed cost. - fuel consumption is also a very high fixed cost. - very high labor cost.
  • As per the ICRA report, the future of the Indian aviation industry looks promising thanks to factors such as a substantial potential for growth owing to the following factors:Increasing financial capability of the considerable middle class populationIncrease in levels of expendable incomePositive demographicsRising ambitions of middle classQuick economic progressLower levels of penetration
  • As per the ICRA report, the future of the Indian aviation industry looks promising thanks to factors such as a substantial potential for growth owing to the following factors:Increasing financial capability of the considerable middle class populationIncrease in levels of expendable incomePositive demographicsRising ambitions of middle classQuick economic progressLower levels of penetration

Transcript

  • 1. 1 Indian Civil Aviation Industry September 07, 2012 Presented by Group No. 2 & 3 l
  • 2. Contents Indian Civil Aviation Industry     Introduction Pricing Strategies Advertisement and Branding International and Domestic Market  Impact of Govt. policies 2
  • 3. Indian Civil Aviation Industry 3 Statistics:  India is the ninth largest civil aviation market in the world with a market worth of US $12bn  There are 4,200 airports deploying 27,000 aircraft  87 foreign airlines fly to and from India and 5 Indian carriers fly to and fro from 40 countries  Handles about 2.5 Bn passengers across the world in a year  Moves 45 Mn tons of cargo a year Source: ICA Institute
  • 4. Current Scenario Current Scenario:  Indian aviation witnessed growth, both in domestic as well as international passenger traffic 18%  Operational losses despite growth in passenger traffic  Debt trapped industry - combined debt of Indian airlines companies was around USD 15 Billion as of March 2012  Negative sentiment observed from international Financial Institutions  The total loss for all the airlines FY12 was approximately USD 2.5 billion according to the Ministry of Civil Aviation.  The only carrier that remained a profit-making operation was low-cost IndiGo, which also hit the headlines by announcing an order for 180 aircraft from Airbus Industries worth as much as $15.6 billion.  They also reported the fullest aircraft in Jul-2012 4
  • 5. Cost Environment India’s carriers today face a deteriorating cost environment on a number of fronts. These include:  Fuel prices: a high, and more importantly sustained high, oil price environment. On average around the world, fuel accounts for about 34% of an airline’s cost structure. In India, because of high taxes, it accounts for 45%. Impact : Domestic airfares are set to rise further by Rs 500 due to the recent 7.6 per cent rise in the price of Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF). 5
  • 6. 6  Weak currency: further depreciation of the Rupee, which has already fallen more than 20% in the last 12 months, thereby pushing up the price of dollar‐ denominated costs such as fuel, aircraft leases, maintenance and offshore interest obligations  Airport charges: the regulator has already approved a 334% increase in charges at Delhi Airport and 500% at Mumbai. These additional levies likely to inc airfares by 15‐20%.  Service tax: the service tax on economy class airfares will change from a fixed amount to an ad valorem percentage.
  • 7. 7 Pricing
  • 8. Pricing 8 What are the important factors influencing pricing decisions ? Bodies Governing The Ministry of Tourism and Civil Aviation The Indian Airlines Corporation The National Airports Authority The International Airports Authority of India The Air India Corporation These are the bodies directly or indirectly influencing the process of making the pricing decisions.
  • 9. Pricing Strategies 1. 2. 3. 4. • • • Demand Based Pricing (Price Discrimination) Season Based Pricing (Monopolistic Competition) Competition based pricing (Oligopoly) Value based Pricing Discounting Odd pricing Penetration Pricing 9
  • 10. Pricing Strategies 1. Demand Based Pricing The pricing of air fares under this strategy is normally based on the demand from the customers. For example: The person sitting next to u might not have paid the same price for the ticket. If a person wanting to travel in Business class does not get the ticket for the same when tried to book at the last minute, will travel in Economy class paying more than what the other travelers must’ve paid. The Pricing is never fixed and it is always Discriminated. 10
  • 11. Pricing Strategies 11 Price Discrimination What do we mean by Price Discrimination ? For simplicity we have assumed no fixed costs and constant variable cost so that MC = ATC. a. Without price discrimination Price b. With discrimination Price Profit = $3200 Profit = $2400 MC = ATC Quantity MC = ATC Quantity
  • 12. Pricing Strategies 2. Season Based Pricing The pricing of airline industry largely depends on seasons. Characteristics for Monopolistic Competition Large no of sellers Differentiated Product Firms compete on price, quality and marketing Quality is a significant product differentiating strategy (Marketing is must) 12
  • 13. Pricing Strategies 13 Monopolistic Competition Firms in monopolistic competition maximize economic profits by producing where MR = MC and by charging the price for that quantity from the demand curve D . hence the firms earns positive economic profits because P > ATC. Short Run Long Run
  • 14. Pricing Strategies 14 Competition based Pricing This strategy focuses on the prices charged by other airlines. For Example Spice jet on completion of three years on May 23rd 2008 offered 3 lakh tickets just for Rs. 3 starting from July 1st to 21st September 2008 across its 18 destinations in India. This type of pricing strategy can be broadly discussed with the help of Kind Curved Model in Oligopoly
  • 15. Pricing Strategies 15 Oligopoly Features: Small number of sellers Products may be similar or different Significant barriers to entry Interdependence among competitors (Decisions made by one firm affect the demand, price and profit of others in the industry) Kink Demand Curve Model
  • 16. Pricing Strategies 16 Value Based Pricing This strategy can be applied when the most important determinant of value to a customer is money. Various Methods: Discounts: The service provider or marketer may offer discounts or price cuts to communicate to the price-sensitive buyers/ customers’ that they are receiving value for which their money is spent. For example: Spice jet has a special group discounting scheme wherein groups of over 15 guests may be provided with consideration for special fares.
  • 17. Pricing Strategies 17 Odd Pricing This is another strategy wherein the service providers offer prices at an amount which seems comparatively lower than the normal rates. So in case on Spicejet. Instead of offering a ticket from Mumbai to Goa at Rs. 2400 they would offer at Rs. 2299. So, on looking at the figure the price difference seems to be more which in fact is just hundred and eleven rupees. Penetration pricing: This is a strategy in which new services are introduced at low prices to stimulate trial and widespread use. This strategy is appropriate when the sale of tickets is pricesensitive. Example: Jet Airways announced a new offer `Everyone can fly’
  • 18. 18 Branding and Advertising
  • 19. 19 The primary purpose in advertising is not simply to alter the demand curve, but to shift it upward and to the right.
  • 20. 20  For an airline in a competitive market, an increase in its demand may also accrue from a shift of passengers away from its competitors.  Some is institutional, stressing the reliability, dependability, comfort, and convenience of air travel; some is almost purely competitive, stressing a sometimes nonexistent advantage, such as an alleged superiority of one aircraft or service over that of competitors.  Airlines competing for traffic on the same routes are compelled to advertise simply to maintain their share of the market.  Another intra-industry use of advertising may occur when airlines serve different places through a common city.  If the market for air transportation is carefully considered, this inter-industry effect shows great long-term promise for the airlines.
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  • 24. 24  The airlines often use other means to create psychological impact. They use advertising to stimulate the potential traveler by depicting glamorous vacations and exciting adventures in distant places, and they emphasize that these places are only a few hours away by air. This is to gain more business from other transportations.  The effects of advertising manifest themselves in both the short and the long run. In terms of intra-industry competition, an airline can at best only hope to use advertising as a means of increasing market share in the short run.
  • 25. 25
  • 26. 26
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  • 28. 28  Probably the most important effects of advertising to the airlines are its long-run influence on inter-industry market shares.  Continued advertising has a cumulative response. It produces an increased awareness of air transportation through constant exposure, and may create an identification of a particular carrier or carriers with a route, market, or region.
  • 29. 29
  • 30. 30
  • 31. 31 Advertising must be successful in :  reaching the airline's target markets,  remind the customer of existing product features, routes served,  inform the customer about new or improved product features,  new routes being added and so on
  • 32. 32 International and Domestic Market
  • 33. Competition in International Market  Indian aviation witnessed growth internationally by 11.8%  However, nearly 1/3rd of 32 million international passengers to/from India, travelled on international carriers.  Reasons are – offering good onward connections via hubs in US and Europe, as the same are underserved by local airlines (CAPA report).  Debt trapped industry - combined debt of Indian airlines companies was around USD 15 Billion as of March 2012  Industry also faces negative sentiment observed from international Financial Institutions due to Government restrictions, taxes etc. 33
  • 34. Competition in Domestic Market  In early 2000 there were just 3 major carriers in the Indian Civil Aviation Industry – Indian Airlines, Jet Airways and Air Sahara  The Airline industry too witnessed rapid growth which led to the emergence of new players such as Air Deccan, Indigo, Go Air, Paramount Airways, Spice Jet etc  This led to significant price reduction and increased competition and increase in overall passenger traffic.  This increased and intense competition coupled with high cost of operations, led to significant operating losses for a significant majority of the airlines, which led to a spate of consolidation in the Industry – Air Sahara was acquired by Jet Airways and subsequently renamed as Jet Lite – Air Deccan was acquired by UB Group and merged with Kingfisher Airlines – Merger of Indian Airlines and Air India 34
  • 35. Competition in Domestic Market  Operators such as Paramount have stopped operations given the continued losses incurred from operations  Kingfisher Airlines is also currently facing significant debt pressures coupled with operating losses  The only carrier that remained a profit-making operation was low-cost IndiGo, which also hit the headlines by announcing an order for 180 aircraft from Airbus Industries worth as much as $15.6 billion.  They also reported the fullest aircraft in Jul-2012 35
  • 36. Air Passenger Traffic : International and Domestic 36
  • 37. Air Freight Traffic : International and Domestic 37
  • 38. Future of Indian Aviation  International markets: – Increasing financial capability of the considerable middle class population – Increase in levels of expendable income – Positive demographics – Rising ambitions of middle class – Quick economic progress – Lower levels of penetration 38
  • 39. Future of Indian Aviation 39  Domestic markets: - Indian domestic capacity growth of 7-8% in FY2012/13, traffic to grow 8-10% - India’s airlines expected to post a combined loss of USD1.3-1.4 billion - Jet Airways to prosper; major aircraft order expected - Kingfisher Airlines revival dependent on foreign airline investment - Serious cost challenges - continued dithering over foreign ownership - government leadership needed more than ever -government policy to introduce FDI in domestic airlines.
  • 40. 40 Benefits of Foreign Direct Investment in the Airline Industry  The Civil Aviation Ministry has been considering allowing up to 49% equity investment by foreign carriers in domestic airlines  Key Benefits for the Indian Aviation Industry – Provide the much required capital to the domestic aviation industry reeling under the pressure of mounting losses and rising debt burden – Help bring global expertise and best industry practices over the medium term  Key Benefits for the Consumer – Increased competition as new players could enter the market and offer more alternatives potentially reduce tariffs – Improve customer service standards  Key Benefits for the Foreign Airlines – Provide entry into one of the fastest growing aviation market globally – An opportunity to establish India as their hub for connections between US/Europe and South-East Asian countries
  • 41. 41 Government Policies
  • 42. Overview of Indian Aviation Policy  1953 – Govt Nationalized the Airlines Via the Air Corporation Act, 1953 Indian Airlines & Air India.  1986 – Private Sector Players were granted permission to operate as Air Taxi Operators Air Sahara, Jet Airways, Damania Airways, East West Airlines, Modiluft and NEPC Airways. 42 Birth of
  • 43. Overview of Indian Aviation Policy 43  1994 – Govt of India revoked the Air Corporation Act.  1995 – Govt granted scheduled carrier status to six private air taxi operators. But only four operated: Jet Airways, Air Sahara, Jagsons and Spicejet (previously operated as Modiluft).
  • 44. Current Aviation Policy  FDI in aviation allowed up to 49% but for companies other than airline companies (invest).  FDI up to 74% allowed for scheduled and cargo airlines.  FDI 100% allowed via the automatic route for the green field airports.  Foreign Investment up to 74% is permissible.  Private Investors allowed to establish general airports and captive airstrips – distance of 150kms  Tax Exemption - 10years 44
  • 45. Union Budget 2012-2013 Impact On The Aviation Sector  ECB & Custom Duty – healthy impact on Aviation Industry in India.  ATF – “Declared Goods”  Airlines allowed to import ATF – as “Actual Users”  ECB allowed for funding working capital requirements up to US $ 1 billion – a year.  Custom duty from 14% to 8% - ATF  Custom duty on some items NIL 45
  • 46. Conclusion 46 Indian aviation sector in low-growth phase but long-term prospects remain positive  Domestic traffic in India has been flat in 2012 amid exceptional circumstances in the market, with Kingfisher Airlines and Air India both severely curtailing capacity amid strike action and financial woes.  CAPA estimates that domestic passenger traffic will grow by 8-10% in FY2012/13. Much will depend upon the impact of oil prices and other input costs on airfares.  The short-term cost and regulatory environment remains very hostile.  While the Indian aviation sector is now in a low-growth phase, long-term fundamentals remain positive. India is poised to emerge as the world’s third largest aviation market before 2020 with airport traffic forecasted to reach 450 million passengers (360 million domestic and 90 million international) along with 6.5 million tonnes of cargo by 2020.
  • 47. 47 Thank You! Abha Mishra - 01 Ajay Goyal - 04 Gulistaan Dumasia - 18 Jimit Salot – 21 Sachi Agarwal - 41 Sherly Dsouza - 47 Yuvraj Tandon – 59 Rashi Kapur - 39 Neha Kumar - 29 Nitya Murti - 31 Sonal Rajadhyax - 50