Climate Change Response Policy Progress


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  • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal , as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.
  • SA’s share of global CO2 emissions (energy and LULUCF): ANNUAL – 1.1% CUMULATIVE (1950-2000): 0.9% - so cumulative is not great, but best of a bad bunch, from SA’s perspective We’re in trouble, whichever way you count it. The World in 2004 produced about 49 000 Megatons CO2-equiv [1] , mainly from energy generation and deforestation. In comparison South Africa produces about 440 Mt, or about 1% of the global figure. On any basis, South Africa’s emissions are large relative to its population and economy. South Africa has a coal-based energy economy, which has historically had relatively low energy prices supporting energy-intensive industries such as minerals beneficiation. As the table shows, our emissions intensity is high compared to major developing and developed countries. Our emissions per capita are high compared to China and India, the latter two also being coal-based energy economies, and also compared to Brazil – until one includes emissions due to changes in land use, notably deforestation. South Africa is therefore in a difficult position in relation to some proposed climate regimes. Some countries argue – on the basis of equity – for allocation of emission allowances on a per capita basis. South Africa already exceeds the global average. Other proposals for developing countries are based on emissions intensity. Again, given our high relative emissions intensity, this is not likely to be a favourable approach for South Africa.
  • Growth without Constraints SA successfully implements ASGISA and growth objectives This is the reference case Emissions in Growth without Constraints grow almost four-fold Required by Science Emissions need to peak and decline -30% to -40% by 2050 (of base year levels, 2003) Lower line: collective bottom line Upper: some differentiation, or a “developing country discount” Strategies are then adopted to achieve this objective over time The Gap needs to be bridged by combining various wedges
  • OVERVIEW: Two scenarios: GWC and RBS Four strategic options: Start Now, Scale Up, Use the Market, Reach for the Goal IN DETAIL: TWO SCENARIOS 1. GWC is t he first of two Scenarios; story is “what if SA had no carbon constraint, no climate impacts” This is now our second 2. Required by Science (RBS) is the 2 nd scenario, story is “what if we could achieve what Science requires of us? IN DETAIL: FOUR STRATEGIC OPTIONS: 1. Start Now: Start with mitigation actions (implemented through state action) with good economic reasons and other sustainable development co-benefits. As a package this option saves money over time. ‘Net negative cost’ wedges need money upfront, but save more over time. Lots of energy efficiency. 2. Scale Up: Increased level of ambition. Goes beyond ‘net negative cost’ into positive cost territory – can be thought of as “Energy Efficiency plus”. Scalinp up here approximates use of regulatory instruments. 3. Use the Market: Also scale up, but using economic instruments – taxes and incentives promote the uptake of the accelerated technologies and social behaviour. The key driver of is a CO2 tax – directly affect energy supply (use of fossil fuels) and indiect on demand side. Tax levels up to R 100 – 200 / t CO2 show increasing mitigation. Recycling of tax revenue is critical to economic impacts. 4. Reach for the Goal: In first three Strategic Options, a ‘golden triangle’ remains - some time from the middle of the period, emissions continue to rise again. Reason: unknown technologies and behavioural changes Four sets of actions are suggested – (a) new technologies; (b) resource identification (e.g. hydro, gas ); (c) People-oriented measures: Incentivised behaviour change; and (d) Transition to a low-carbon economy
  • Climate Change Response Policy Progress

    2. 2. THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE <ul><li>Climate change is defined as a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the atmosphere </li></ul><ul><li>Warming of the climate system is unequivocal , as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. </li></ul>
    3. 3. WG I: The physical science basis Global mean temperature Global average sea level Northern hemisphere snow cover Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
    4. 4. Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Period Rate 50 0.128  0.026 Years  /decade 100 0.074  0.018 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999, 1990 ,2000
    5. 5. Green House Effect
    7. 7. SA compared to other countries <ul><li>Relative to the size of our population, emissions ‘per capita’ are high </li></ul><ul><li>Emissions-intensity due to dependency on coal and inefficient use of energy </li></ul>
    8. 9. LTMS: Process and research <ul><li>LTMS is a Cabinet-mandated process for identifying scenarios for mitigation of climate change </li></ul><ul><li>Robust and broadly supported results achieved through technical methodology and extensive stakeholder involvement </li></ul>
    9. 10. Two Scenarios presented by the SBT frame the choices for South Africa The Gap
    10. 11. Two Scenarios: Growth without Constraints and Required by Science - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 Mt CO 2 -equivalent Required by Science Current Dev Path Growth without Constraints THE GAP Gap: difference between where emissions might go and where they need to go (GWC – RBS, emissions in 2050) Gap is 1300 Mt CO2-eq in 2050 More than three times 2003 annual emissions 2050
    11. 12. Four Strategic Options 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 Required by Science Start Now is a combination of aggressive energy efficiency + 27% nuclear and 27% renewable energy generation by 2050 Scale Up is a combination of Start Now + extension of energy generation to 50% nuclear and 50% renewable by 2050 Use the Market is as an alternative instrument to Scale Up ; it applies a carbon tax (starting from R100 (slowing emissions growth); R250 (stabilising emissions) to R750 (absolute reductions 2040ff) plus incentives <ul><li>New technology </li></ul><ul><li>Identify resources </li></ul><ul><li>People-oriented measures </li></ul><ul><li>Transition to a low carbon economy </li></ul>2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 2050 Growth without Constraints Start Now Use the Market Scale Up Reach for the Goal
    12. 13. With the conclusion of the technical work, the LTMS moved into a “high-level” process. LTMS way forward
    13. 14. Theme 1: GHG emission reductions and limits (Cont.) Peak Decline Plateau
    14. 15. PROGRESS TO DATE <ul><li>The 2009 Climate Change Policy Summit formally initiated the policy development process </li></ul><ul><li>Relatively slow progress with limited sectoral inputs in 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>The 15 th UNFCCC COP, Copenhagen </li></ul><ul><li>17 May 2010 National Climate Change Response Policy Development Round Table </li></ul>
    15. 16. THE MAY 2010 BACKGROUND INFORMATION DOCUMENT (BID) <ul><li>1 Purpose of the document </li></ul><ul><li>2 Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>3 South Africa’s Climate Record and Trends </li></ul><ul><li>4 The International Climate Negotiations and South Africa’s Expectations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>4.1 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4.2 Current status of negotiations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4.3 Key issues under discussions/ negotiations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4.4 Prognosis of what is achievable </li></ul></ul><ul><li>5 The impact of climate change on South Africa and potential adaptive responses </li></ul><ul><ul><li>5.1 Water - 5.1.1 Impacts; 5.1.2 Potential Adaptive Responses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5.2 Agriculture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5.3 Forestry </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5.4 Terrestrial Biodiversity and Ecosystems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5.5 Oceans and Coasts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5.6 Human Health </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5.7 Rural Livelihoods </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5.8 Urban Environments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5.9 Risk Prevention, Disaster Management and Insurance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5.10 Economic impact of adaptation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5.11 Adaptation and Impacts Conclusion </li></ul></ul><ul><li>6 Sectors Impacted by Responses to Climate Change – Response Measures and the South African Economy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>6.1 The effect of response measures to climate change on South Africa’s economy and trade study </li></ul></ul><ul><li>7 South Africa’s GHG emission profile </li></ul><ul><li>8 The Energy Sector and Climate Change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>8.1 Renewable Energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>8.2 Energy Efficiency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>8.3 The Clean Development Mechanism </li></ul></ul><ul><li>9 Land Use, Land Use Change, Forestry and Agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>10 Mitigation in the Industrial Sector </li></ul><ul><li>11 Transport </li></ul><ul><li>12 Economic Instruments and Measures to Address Climate Change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>12.1 Climate relevant environmental taxes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>12.2 Climate change and economic and fiscal instruments – the way forward </li></ul></ul><ul><li>13 Science, Technology and Innovation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>13.1 Carbon Capture and Storage </li></ul></ul><ul><li>14 Building a National Consensus On South Africa’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Objectives </li></ul><ul><ul><li>14.1 The LTMS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>14.2 The Copenhagen Accord and South Africa’s Listing - 14.2.1 Methodology: Explaining the numbers in the Copenhagen listing; 14.2.2 List of NAMAs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>14.3 Investments plans for NAMAs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>15 Policy Considerations, Policy Debates and Potential Policy Approaches And Actions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>15.1 Science and Climate Information </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>15.2 The International Climate Negotiations and The UNFCCC - 15.2.1 Implications of a climate change architecture on National Action </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>15.3 Climate Change Adaptation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>15.4 Climate Change Mitigation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>15.5 Climate Change Finance and the Use of Economic Instruments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>15.6 Alignment of Government Policies and Actions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>16 Glossary of Terms and Acronyms </li></ul><ul><li>11 References </li></ul>Policy elements Basic Background Information
    16. 17. THE COMPILATION OF THE DRAFT GREEN PAPER <ul><li>Section 1 – Preamble : A 1-2 page encapsulation of the core climate change issues and, through this, the justification for a national policy </li></ul><ul><li>Section 2 – The Objective : A succinct, clear and unambiguous description of the objective (desired outcome) of South Africa’s climate change response </li></ul>WHY? – This section answers the question “Why do we need a climate change response policy?” WHAT? – This section answers the question “What is the desired outcome of the policy?”
    17. 18. THE COMPILATION OF THE DRAFT GREEN PAPER (Cont.) <ul><li>Section 3 – Principles : A concise list of the key principles guiding the proposed responses to climate change </li></ul><ul><li>Section 4 – Policy Directives : This is the meat of the policy which is divided into key impacted and/or affected (economic) sectors arranged in alphabetical order. The sectors are specifically chosen so as not to align with national department portfolios. </li></ul>HOW? – These sections answer the question “How do we achieve the desired outcome of the policy?”
    18. 19. THE COMPILATION OF THE DRAFT GREEN PAPER (Cont.) <ul><li>Section 4 – Policy Directives (Cont.) : For each sector there is: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>a brief (5 line) introductory paragraph describing the sector’s climate change relevance; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(max) 5 concise bullet points on the sector’s impact on CC (mitigation) and/or CC’s impact on the sector (adaptation) and/or broader socio-economic / socio-political CC implications for the sector including opportunities; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>text along the lines of “In response to these climate change challenges for the sector, South Africa will…”; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>no more than 5 (for now) numbered “directives”, i.e. dense, concise descriptions of what we will do as a nation in meeting “the objective”. </li></ul></ul>WHY? – The first 2 sub-sections answer the question “Why is a climate change response required for this sector?” HOW? – The last 2 sub-sections answer the question “How is the sector going to respond to climate change?”
    19. 20. THE COMPILATION OF THE DRAFT GREEN PAPER (Cont.) <ul><li>Section 4 – Policy Directives (Cont.) : Sectors include: </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>Biodiversity (Terrestrial and Marine) </li></ul><ul><li>Building and Construction </li></ul><ul><li>Commercial Forestry </li></ul><ul><li>Commercial and Retail </li></ul><ul><li>Disaster Management </li></ul><ul><li>Education </li></ul><ul><li>Energy </li></ul><ul><li>Financial </li></ul><ul><li>Fisheries </li></ul><ul><li>Health </li></ul><ul><li>Human Settlements </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul><ul><li>Mining and Mineral Resources </li></ul><ul><li>Tourism </li></ul><ul><li>Transport </li></ul><ul><li>Waste </li></ul><ul><li>Water </li></ul>
    20. 21. THE COMPILATION OF THE DRAFT GREEN PAPER (Cont.) <ul><li>Section 5 – Roles and Responsibilities : provides a brief overview of who should be doing what in respect of the “policy directives”. </li></ul><ul><li>Section 6 – Institutional Framework for Coordination : provides a brief overview of the structures responsible for ensuring a coordinated, consistent, aligned, cohesive, coherent and integrated approach to our climate change response. </li></ul>HOW? – This section answers the question “How do we coordinate and align sectoral responses?” WHO? – This section answers the question “Who does what?”
    21. 22. THE COMPILATION OF THE DRAFT GREEN PAPER (Cont.) <ul><li>Section 7 – Monitoring, Evaluation and Review : provides guidance on how progress in meeting the objective and implementing the directives will be measured, reported and verified and, from this, how the policy will be reviewed to ensure its continued relevance and efficacy. </li></ul>HOW? – This section answers the question “How do we measure progress and efficacy?” TARGETS AND INDICATORS – This section will also provide specific targets and/or indicators against which progress and efficacy will be measured
    22. 23. A REMINDER – AREAS OF POLICY DIVERGENCE <ul><li>The nature of the country’s energy mix, the meaning of ‘cleaner energy’, the transparency of integrated energy planning and optimal institutional arrangements. In particular, our approach to coal based electricity, nuclear roll-out and the feasibility of renewable energy technologies to address base load demand were hotly debated. </li></ul><ul><li>Transparency in the decision-making process was stressed by most participants, with several calling for an independent review of the Eskom new build programme in the light of climate change considerations. </li></ul>These 2 “areas of divergence” are being addressed through DoE’s 2 nd Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity (IRP2) development process
    23. 24. A REMINDER – AREAS OF POLICY DIVERGENCE (Cont.) <ul><li>On economic instruments, most participants felt that taxes, emissions trading, incentives and subsidies could play a role. Some felt that a double dividend (both GHG emission reductions and socio-economic benefits) could be achieved by recycling the revenues of a carbon tax or auctioning allowances for domestic GHG emissions trading, while others cautioned about the potential impacts of increased taxes in the current financial context, as well as concerns about ear-marking of revenues. Some participants proposed a pilot phase for domestic emissions trading, which could be voluntary initially and develop into a mandatory cap-and-trade system. </li></ul>This “area of divergence” will be addressed through Treasury’s, soon to be published, discussion document on this subject
    24. 25. <ul><li>Forward to a sustainable energy future </li></ul>THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION
    25. 26. SETTING THE GHG EMISSION REDUCTION OBJECTIVES <ul><li>Building a National Consensus On South Africa’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Objectives </li></ul>All “reduction” undertakings predicated on international finance and technology transfer