IONS Seminar 2014 - Session 1 - Risk Managing Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean Region


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Speaker: Commodore Lee Cordner, AM, RANR, Indo-Pacific Governance Research Centre, Adelaide University

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IONS Seminar 2014 - Session 1 - Risk Managing Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean Region

  1. 1. Risk Managing Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean Region: cooperative opportunities for maritime forces Commodore Lee Cordner Rtd. Indo-Pacific Governance Research Centre (IPGRC), University of Adelaide, Australia Visiting International Fellow Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India
  2. 2. Presentation Outline •Risk, Vulnerability & Maritime Security •IOR risk context and risk assessment •Recommendations
  3. 3. •maritime security built upon shared perspectives of risks &vulnerabilities • develop shared understandings of threats to common objectives •identify shared opportunities for mitigating risks & reducing vulnerabilities
  4. 4. RISK •World Risk Society, Ulrich Beck •ISO 31000:2009 Risk management – Principles and guidelines
  5. 5. Risk is defined as the effect of uncertainty on objectives IOR virtual organization – open, expansive & inclusive maritime system, a composite oceanic & littoral region in which regional and extra- regional actors have common objectives, interests & shared risks & vulnerabilities 3 phases of risk management: 1. Establishing the context 2. Risk assessment 3. Risk Treatment
  6. 6. Vulnerability the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to risks posing unquantifiable uncertainty combined with insufficient capacities to prevent, respond or adapt
  7. 7. Maritime Security a comprehensive concept that derives from the systemic nature of the maritime domain presenting multiple and inter- related requirements for cooperative security by state and non-state actors; it addresses traditional and non-traditional security challenges involves coordinating collective and cooperative risk mitigation and vulnerability reduction efforts in order to protect and promote national, regional and global vital interests, objectives and core values including those relating to state sovereignty, freedom of navigation, economic development, environment and ocean resources, human and social development, and political stability
  8. 8. IOR maritime security risk context •law of the sea •economy, trade & globalization •energy •environment & ocean resources •social cohesion & development •potential for interstate conflict •regional security architecture
  9. 9. Law of the Sea •maritime Sovereignty •freedom of Navigation •conservation & protection of the marine environment & resources Economy, Trade & Globalization •emerging IOR prominence •uneven economic development •uneven impact of globalization
  10. 10. Energy •crucial to regional & global energy security •IOR SLOCs •Geopolitics of world energy changing Environment & Ocean Resources •greatest maritime security-related IOR challenge in medium to longer term •coastal zones – sea level rise & extreme weather •natural disasters •vulnerability
  11. 11. Social Cohesion & Development •diversity, complexity &conflict •majority of the world’s refugees •migration generates economic, social, political &security challenges •fertile environment for law & order issues Potential for Interstate Conflict • China, India, US – seapower •WMD •Limited regional maritime capabilities •External states – stability & intervention
  12. 12. Regional Security Architecture •security architecture lacking •IORA – no security: •maritime safety & security •fisheries management •disaster risk management •academic, S & T •IONS •No Track 2 or 1.5
  13. 13. IOR Strategic Objectives for Maritime Security 1. Attain & sustain maritime territorial sovereignty 2. Assure freedom of navigation in accordance with UNCLOS 3. Implement effective conservation, protection &management of the marine environment in areas within national jurisdiction & high seas 4. Address the uneven effects of globalization across the IOR system 5. Promote economic development & enhance intra & extra- regional maritime trade 6. Ensure integrity of energy (oil, gas & coal) maritime supply routes throughout the IOR 7. Assert effective, sustainable control over fish & other resources within areas of national jurisdiction & high seas 8. Implement effective measures to address impacts of climate change
  14. 14. IOR Strategic Objectives for Maritime Security 9. Implement effective management of coastal zone around IOR littoral 10.Develop cooperative natural disaster response & recovery mechanisms 11.Promote social tolerance, cohesion & stability founded upon economic & societal development & integration 12.Impose law & order consistent with international regimes and norms 13.Establish nuclear weapons & other WMD free zone; prevent WMD proliferation; remove nuclear weapons & WMD; prevent extra-regional states & other actors bringing WMD into the IOR 14.Encourage political order in IOR states & promote regional stability 15.Develop regional maritime security dialogue & cooperation architectures in the IOR
  15. 15. IOR Maritime Security Risks 1. Transgressions of sovereignty in the territorial sea 2. Transgressions of sovereignty in the EEZ 3. States asserting unreasonable maritime sovereignty claims 4. State closures of international straits, archipelagic sea lanes &/or areas within national jurisdiction 5. State restrictions on freedom of navigation in international straits, archipelagic sea lanes &/or areas within national jurisdiction 6. Non-state actors impinging upon freedom of navigation (piracy, maritime terrorism) 7. Impacts of climate change on the marine environment 8. Illegal exploitation of marine living resources, in areas of national jurisdiction & high seas 9. Marine pollution & dumping
  16. 16. IOR Maritime Security Risks 10. Inadequate regulation & control of the marine environment 11. Sea-level rise & increasing intensity & frequency of extreme weather events in IOR coastal zones & islands 12. Law & order at sea transgressions: crime, piracy, robbery, smuggling, trafficking, illegal immigration, IUU fishing 13. Disruption of energy cargoes at sea 14. Offshore oil & gas safety & security incidents 15. Transportation & deployment of WMD at sea 16. Local, state on state, conflict spilling into the maritime domain 17. Maritime intervention (power projection, asserting sea control) by major powers in the IOR 18. Safety at sea 19. Lack of IOR architecture & entities to facilitate regional maritime security dialogue & cooperation
  17. 17. Strategic Objective MS Risk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Overall Risk 1 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 2 x x x x x x x x x x x x 3 x x x x x x x x x x x x x 4 x x x x x x x x 5 x x x x x x x x x x x 6 x x x x x x x x x x 7 x x x x x x x x x x x x 8 x x x x 9 x x x x x x x x 10 x x x x x 11 x x x x x x x x x x x 12 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 13 x x x x x x x 14 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 15 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x LOS RA R A
  18. 18. Concluding Summary •IOR – sea vital common medium •Global strategic & economic balance to IOR •Climate change greatest impact medium to long term – natural disasters •Much uncertainty = risk •Many vulnerabilities •Lack of maritime security capabilities •Lack of cooperative mechanisms •Opportunity for cooperative security
  19. 19. Recommendations 1. Conduct regional strategic risk assessment, maritime security focus, enhanced maritime security cooperation: IONS initiative 2. Encourage IORA to include climate change 3. Encourage expansion of IORA membership 4. IONS encourage/support creation of Track 2/1.5 dialogue entity - IORG 5. Support creation of separate Track 1 IOR security dialogue entity