Managing for Change
Not Just Persistence
Dr. Bruce Stein
Director, Climate Change Adaptation
National Wildlife Federation
...
The future ain’t what it used to be.
-- Yogi Berra
Unfortunately, the Future is Now!
“I skate to where the puck is going to
be, not where it has been.”
--- Wayne Gretsky
What Constitutes Good
Adaptation?
• Adaptation an emerging field
• Still poor understanding of what climate
adaptation mea...
Climate-Smart Conservation
• NWF-led expert workgroup
developing criteria and
guidance for “climate-smart”
conservation
• ...
Iron Chef
Adaptation Edition
What’s in Your Basket?
The Secret Sauce for
Successful Adaptation
Intentionality
Link Actions to Climate Impacts
• Show your work!
• Climate lens
important even if
you continue doing
the same thing
• Add...
Managing for Change
Not Just Persistence
Historical Range of Variability
Global Average January Temperatures.
Source: NOAA...
Anticipating Change Along the
Delaware Coast
Breached levees and inundated coastal impoundments,
Prime Hook National Wildl...
Reconsider Conservation Goals
Not Just Strategies
• Goals are the why; strategies the
how
• Many current goals will no lon...
•Traditional
goals
•Revised
strategies*
Climate
Retrofit
Aligning Climate-Informed
Goals and Strategies
•Traditional
goals...
Integrate with Existing Work
Not Just Stand-Alone Adaptation Plans
Climate-Smart Conservation Cycle
Understanding Climate
Change Vulnerability
• Understanding vulnerability is key
to designing effective adaptation
– What ‘...
Using Vulnerability to Inform
Management Options
Source: Dawson et al. 2011
Evaluating Possible Actions
Key Characteristics of Climate Smart Conservation
• Actions linked to
climate impacts
• Forwar...
The “New” Success in Conservation?
“the capacity for self-renewal”
-- Aldo Leopold
Summing Up
• Act with intentionality
• Manage for change,
not just persistence
• Reconsider goals, not
just strategies
• I...
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  • Unfortunately, most of our conservation has been based on the premise that climate will remain relatively constant. Indeed, conservation for the most part has involved either protecting species and systems in a way designed to maintain current condition, or restoration to some previous desired condition. The conservation challenge of the future will be how to plan and act with climatic conditions shifting in ways that have no past analogs.
  • Stein state wildlife conference nctc

    1. 1. Managing for Change Not Just Persistence Dr. Bruce Stein Director, Climate Change Adaptation National Wildlife Federation June 5, 2013
    2. 2. The future ain’t what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra
    3. 3. Unfortunately, the Future is Now!
    4. 4. “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” --- Wayne Gretsky
    5. 5. What Constitutes Good Adaptation? • Adaptation an emerging field • Still poor understanding of what climate adaptation means • Most guidance still at very high level; little operational advice • Danger of existing work simply re- labeled as adaptation • Strong interest in understanding what truly constitutes climate adaptation and how it can be operationalized
    6. 6. Climate-Smart Conservation • NWF-led expert workgroup developing criteria and guidance for “climate-smart” conservation • Follows on successful guidance publication and training on vulnerability assessment • Products will include published guide and training course through FWS National Conservation Training Center
    7. 7. Iron Chef Adaptation Edition What’s in Your Basket?
    8. 8. The Secret Sauce for Successful Adaptation Intentionality
    9. 9. Link Actions to Climate Impacts • Show your work! • Climate lens important even if you continue doing the same thing • Address short-term threats in a longer- term context
    10. 10. Managing for Change Not Just Persistence Historical Range of Variability Global Average January Temperatures. Source: NOAA 2009 Stationarity is Dead!
    11. 11. Anticipating Change Along the Delaware Coast Breached levees and inundated coastal impoundments, Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge Creating new impoundments inland and upland of existing ponds. Delaware Dept of Fish and Wildlife
    12. 12. Reconsider Conservation Goals Not Just Strategies • Goals are the why; strategies the how • Many current goals will no longer be feasible • Need is for “climate-informed conservation goals” – Not just “climate-change goals” – Not just changing strategies to meet current goals
    13. 13. •Traditional goals •Revised strategies* Climate Retrofit Aligning Climate-Informed Goals and Strategies •Traditional goals •Traditional strategies Business as Usual Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 •Revised goals* •Revised strategies* Climate- Smart from the Start * Review and revised as needed, based on climate change assessments.
    14. 14. Integrate with Existing Work Not Just Stand-Alone Adaptation Plans
    15. 15. Climate-Smart Conservation Cycle
    16. 16. Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability • Understanding vulnerability is key to designing effective adaptation – What ‘s vulnerable and why • Components of vulnerability – Sensitivity – Exposure – Adaptive Capacity
    17. 17. Using Vulnerability to Inform Management Options Source: Dawson et al. 2011
    18. 18. Evaluating Possible Actions Key Characteristics of Climate Smart Conservation • Actions linked to climate impacts • Forward looking goals • Broader landscape context • Robust in an uncertain future • Agile and informed management • Minimizes carbon footprint • Climate influence on project success • Safeguards people and wildlife • Avoids maladaptation
    19. 19. The “New” Success in Conservation? “the capacity for self-renewal” -- Aldo Leopold
    20. 20. Summing Up • Act with intentionality • Manage for change, not just persistence • Reconsider goals, not just strategies • Integrate adaptation into existing work

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