Northeast Region Habitat Vulnerability Assessment, Hector Galbraith

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Northeast Region Habitat Vulnerability Assessment, Hector Galbraith

Northeast Region Habitat Vulnerability Assessment, Hector Galbraith

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  • 1. NORTHEAST REGION HABITATNORTHEAST REGION HABITAT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTVULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Hector GalbraithHector Galbraith National Wildlife FederationNational Wildlife Federation
  • 2. NORTHEASTERN REGIONAL VA – SCALENORTHEASTERN REGIONAL VA – SCALE AND OBJECTIVESAND OBJECTIVES  13 states and DC13 states and DC  260,000 miles260,000 miles22  map variation in habitatmap variation in habitat vulnerabilities across regionvulnerabilities across region  provide states with regionalprovide states with regional context for conservationcontext for conservation decisionsdecisions  Identify adaptation optionsIdentify adaptation options  Build capacities within stateBuild capacities within state agenciesagencies
  • 3. NEAFWA REGIONAL VA -NEAFWA REGIONAL VA - PROCESSPROCESS 1.1. Convene expert panel of state,Convene expert panel of state, federal, NGO personnelfederal, NGO personnel 2.2. Develop predictive habitatDevelop predictive habitat vulnerability modelvulnerability model 3.3. Test model and modifyTest model and modify 4.4. Form habitat expert workgroupsForm habitat expert workgroups 5.5. Select habitats for analysesSelect habitats for analyses 6.6. Run model on habitatsRun model on habitats
  • 4. 1. Vulnerability to climate change Index 2. Vulnerability to non-climate stressors Index 3. Interactions 4. Overall future vulnerability Index 5. Confidence evaluation 6. Narratives THE NEAFWA HABITAT VULNERABILITY MODEL
  • 5. HABITATS SELECTED FOR ANALYSISHABITATS SELECTED FOR ANALYSIS  Alpine tundraAlpine tundra  Northern hardwood forestNorthern hardwood forest  Southern/central oak forestsSouthern/central oak forests  Pitch pine barrensPitch pine barrens  Boreal bogsBoreal bogs  Southern spruce fir forestSouthern spruce fir forest  Shrub swampShrub swamp  Emergent marshEmergent marsh  Montane spruce fir forestMontane spruce fir forest
  • 6. REGIONAL ZONESREGIONAL ZONES
  • 7. Habitat Vulnerability Rankings in Latitudinal Zones Zone I Zone II Zone III Zone IV Acadian-Appalachian Alpine Tundra Highly Vulnerable Acadian-Appalachian Montane Spruce-Fir Forest Vulnerable Critically Vulnerable Laurentian-Acadian Northern Hardwood Forest Less Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Critically Vulnerable Central Mixed Oak-Pine Forests Least Vulnerable Least Vulnerable Less Vulnerable Vulnerable Pitch Pine Barrens Less Vulnerable Less Vulnerable Less Vulnerable Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain Basin Peat Swamp Less Vulnerable Less Vulnerable Less Vulnerable Central and Southern Appalachian Spruce-Fir Forest Critically Vulnerable Boreal-Laurentian Bog Highly Vulnerable Highly Vulnerable Shrub Swamp Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Emergent Marsh Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable
  • 8. CLIMATE-SCHLIMATE!CLIMATE-SCHLIMATE!  Some habitats likely to be mostSome habitats likely to be most vulnerable to non-climate stressors:vulnerable to non-climate stressors: – Pitch pine scrub oak forestsPitch pine scrub oak forests – Atlantic white cedar forestsAtlantic white cedar forests
  • 9. Habitat Climate change Vulnerability Non-climate change vulnerability Tundra Highly Vulnerable Vulnerable Pine Barrens Least Vulnerable Vulnerable Shrub Swamp Less Vulnerable Vulnerable Southern Spruce- Fir Critically Vulnerable Critically Vulnerable
  • 10. REPORTS ON NEAFWAREPORTS ON NEAFWA WEBSITEWEBSITE 1.1. Projected climate change in NortheastProjected climate change in Northeast 2.2. Building the NEAFWA habitat modelBuilding the NEAFWA habitat model 3.3. Coastal ecological system vulnerabilitiesCoastal ecological system vulnerabilities 4.4. Cold water fish habitat vulnerabilitiesCold water fish habitat vulnerabilities 5.5. 17 upland and wetland habitat17 upland and wetland habitat vulnerabilitiesvulnerabilities 6.6. Habitat vulnerabilities in NY StateHabitat vulnerabilities in NY State
  • 11. NEXT STEPSNEXT STEPS  Modify model for use at smallerModify model for use at smaller scalesscales  Develop rapid assessment processDevelop rapid assessment process  Make available and provide trainingMake available and provide training for land trusts, municipalities,for land trusts, municipalities, smaller conservation organizationssmaller conservation organizations