2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

96,345 views

Published on

NRF’s holiday sales forecast is based on an economic model using several indicators including, consumer credit, disposable personal income and previous monthly retail sales releases. The overall forecast includes the non-store category (direct-to-consumer, kiosks and online sales.) For more information visit: https://nrf.com/resources/consumer-data/holiday-headquarters

Published in: Retail

2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast

  1. 1. HOLIDAY 2016
  2. 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Holiday Forecast .................................... II. Holiday Survey 1 ..................................... III. Thanksgiving Forecast ....................... IV. Holiday Survey 2 .................................... V. Thanksgiving Weekend Results ... VI. Cyber Monday .......................................... VII. Holiday Survey 3 ..................................... pages 3–5 pages 6–12 pages 13–14 pages 15–20 pages 21–24 page 25 pages 26–34
  3. 3. nrf.com/url HISTORICAL HOLIDAY FORECAST Holiday sales for 2016 are expected to increase by 3.6%. This forecast number is above the 7-year average of 3.4% since the recovery began in 2009. On April 29, 2016, unadjusted estimates of monthly sales were revised by Census for January 2008 through March 2016. Growth rates are based on the most comparable data available. NRF holiday spending is defined as the months of November and December. nrf.com/holiday 2.1% 5.1% 6.8% 6.2% 3.2% 2.7% -4.6% 0.2% 5.2% 4.6% 2.6% 3.0% 4.1% $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Holiday Retail Sales (in millions) % Holiday Sales Change HISTORICAL HOLIDAY SALES 2016 3.2% 3.6% $416,416 $437,613 $467,195 $496,040 $512,105 $525,993 $501,594 $502,781 $528,930 $553,397 $567,771 $613,266 $585,088 $632,835 $655,870
  4. 4. nrf.com/url HISTORICAL HOLIDAY EMPLOYMENT This holiday season, retailers could add as many as 690,000 new seasonal positions. This number is in line with last year’s 675,300 new holiday positions. On April 5, 2016, nonfarm employment was revised by BLS between March 2005-2015. NRF employment forecast excludes automobiles, gasoline and food services. nrf.com/holiday 744.58 483.35 547.08 585.82 679.98 684.43 660.27 688.38 263.82 368.76 563.02 636.57 660.3 764.75 697.5 675.3 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 HOLIDAY EMPLOYMENT (IN THOUSANDS) 640–690
  5. 5. On April 29, 2016, unadjusted estimates of monthly sales were revised by Census for January 2008 through March 2016. nrf.com/url HISTORICAL HOLIDAY SALES BY SECTOR Retail Sales by Sector 2015 2014 HOLIDAY SALES (Nov/Dec, in Millions) ANNUAL SALES (in Millions) % ANNUAL SALES FROM HOLIDAY HOLIDAY SALES (Nov/Dec, in Millions) ANNUAL SALES (in Millions) % ANNUAL SALES FROM HOLIDAY Furniture and home furnishings stores 20,085 105,376 19.1% 19,104 99,687 19.2% Electronics and appliance stores 23,324 104,511 22.3% 24,551 104,012 23.6% Building mat. and garden equipment & supplies 53,933 332,561 16.2% 49,746 317,715 15.7% Food and beverage stores 120,117 690,225 17.4% 118,388 669,902 17.7% Health and personal care stores 56,100 312,751 17.9% 53,409 299,891 17.8% Clothing stores 40,369 187,939 21.5% 40,566 183,007 22.2% Shoe stores 6,738 33,753 20.0% 6,530 33,531 19.5% Jewelry stores 8,293 30,288 27.4% 8,359 31,625 26.4% Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores 21,012 90,418 23.2% 19,893 85,375 23.3% Discount dept. stores 24,424 106,344 23.0% 24,523 107,678 22.8% Department stores incl. leased Dept 40,377 167,079 24.2% 41,241 170,421 24.2% Warehouse clubs and superstores 84,305 440,142 19.2% 83,384 433,303 19.2% Electronic shopping and mail-order retailers 97,453 432,742 22.5% 86,521 386,135 22.4% nrf.com/holiday
  6. 6. nrf.com/url HISTORICAL HOLIDAY SPENDING BY CATEGORY Food and candy spending is estimated to reach just over $100, decorations will hover around $50 and spending on greeting cards and flowers will be in the $20-$27 range. This spending category is expected to reach a total of $207.07. nrf.com/holiday $$5544..7755 $$2277..3344 $104.57 Historical Holiday Spending by Category 2004 – 2016 Candy and food Decorations Greeting cards and postage Flowers and potted plants
  7. 7. Missing from this chart is “gift for others” with consumers spending an average of $26.65. nrf.com/url HISTORICAL GIFT SPENDING Nearly everyone will purchase gifts for family, while 71% plan to purchase gifts for friends and a third will buy gifts for co-workers. When it comes to gifts, consumers are spending approximately $588.90. nrf.com/holiday $$446600..6677 $76.83 $$2244..775 Gifts for family Gifts for friends Gifts for co-workers 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Historical Holiday Gift Spending 2004 - 2016
  8. 8. nrf.com/url HISTORICAL SPENDING ON NON-GIFT PURCHASES 58% of consumers also plan to take advantage of holiday deals to make non-gift purchases, up 4.4% from last year. Total spending for this category has reached its second highest level ever at approximately $140. $88.99 $84.73 $94.70 $97.26 $106.67 $101.37 $112.20 $137.17 $140.43 $134.77 $126.37 $133.74 $139.61 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Spending on Non-Gift Purchases nrf.com/holiday
  9. 9. nrf.com/url MOST SHOPPERS WON’T START UNTIL NOVEMBER Similar to previous years, the majority of consumers won’t start shopping until November, with nearly two in 10 waiting until December. But 41% tackle their lists right away, beginning in October or earlier. Top reasons for shopping early include spreading out the budget and avoiding crowds. Before September September October November First 2 weeks of December Last 2 weeks of December 12.2% 6.5% 21.9% 41.4% 15.0% 3.0% When Consumers Plan to Start Shopping nrf.com/holiday
  10. 10. 6611..00%% 5533..55%% 4400..00%% 3322..00%% 2233..22%% 2233..11%% 2200..66%% 1188..88%% 1177..11%% 66..66%% Gift cards / gift certificates Clothing or clothing accessories Books, CDs, DVDs, videos or video games Consumer electronics or computer-related accessories Jewelry or precious metal accessories Home décor or home-related furnishings Personal care or beauty items Sporting goods or leisure items Home improvement items or tools Other nrf.com/url MORE CONSUMERS WANT GIFT CARDS THIS HOLIDAY SEASON Women are more likely to wish for gift cards (69% vs 53%.) On the flip side, men love their gadgets: 41% want consumer electronics compared with only 24% of women. nrf.com/holiday
  11. 11. WHERE WILL CONSUMERS SHOP THIS HOLIDAY SEASON? Department stores and online sites will be the top places to shop this year. Online shopping is at its highest ever, up 6.8% from 2015. In a new addition to the survey this year, one in 10 consumers will shop at outlets. 5566..66%% 5566..55%% 5555..77%% 4444..55%% 3333..66%% 2266..99%% 2222..77%% 1177..33%% 1155..00%% 1133..55%% 1100..11%% 99..88%% 99..00%% 33..33%% Department store Online Discount store Grocery store/supermarket Clothing or accessories store Electronics store Local/small business Crafts or fabrics store Drug store Other specialty store Outlet stores Thrift stores/resale shops Catalog Other nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday
  12. 12. GENEROUS HOLIDAY PROMOTIONS WILL BRING IN SHOPPERS 7733..33%% 6600..55%% 5599..22%% 4488..22%% 4444..99%% 4411..11%% 3355..33%% 3300..22%% 2288..33%% Sales or price discounts Quality of merchandise Selection of merchandise Free shipping /shipping promotions Highest Ever Convenient location Everyday low prices No hassle return policy Easy website or mobile site Helpful, knowledgable customer service Top Factors for Choosing a Retailer Highest Ever nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday
  13. 13. HISTORICAL PLANNED SHOPPING FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND 62.0% 61.1% 58.7% 59.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 Percentage of Consumers that Might or Will Shop Over Thanksgiving Weekend 137.4 million unique potential shoppers might or will shop over Thanksgiving weekend. Nearly eight in 10 Millennials are likely to shop over Thanksgiving weekend, which is significantly higher than adults 35+. nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday
  14. 14. BREAKDOWN OF SHOPPING DAYS OVER THANKSGIVING WEEKEND Thanksgiving Day, November 24 Saturday, November 26 Sunday, November 27 Breakdown of Thanksgiving Weekend Shopping 21.1% 46.7% 24.2% Friday, November 25 (Black Friday) 74.0% 74% of consumers who plan to shop over Thanksgiving weekend will visit their favorite retailers on Black Friday. Nearly half plan to shop that Saturday, with 24% saying they’re shopping specifically for Small Business Saturday. nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday
  15. 15. Types of Gifts Consumers Plan to Buy Other (please specify) 4.6% 61.2%Clothing or clothing accessories 55.9% 43.6% Gift cards/gift certificates Books, CDs, DVDs, videos or video games Toys 42.0% Food/candy 31.2% 29.5%Consumer electronics or computer-related accessories Personal care or beauty items 25.0% Jewelry or precious metal accessories 21.4% Home décor or home-related furnishings 20.6% Plan to give cash 19.5% Sporting goods or leisure items Home improvement items or tools Flowers/plants 8.6% 12.3% 17.4% nrf.com/url TOP GIFTS CONSUMERS ARE PLANNING TO PURCHASE THIS YEAR 61% of shoppers are planning to purchase clothing or clothing accessories as a gift, up from 60% last year. Gift cards, books/videos/video games, toys and food/candy remain some of the top gift choices to give during the holidays. nrf.com/holiday
  16. 16. Specific Type of Gift Cards Consumers Plan to Buy Restaurant Department store Visa/MasterCard/American Express/Discover Gift Card Coffee shop Entertainment (movies, music, etc.) Electronics store Bookstore Online merchant Grocery store/gasoline Gas station Discount store Home improvement store Specialty clothing store Salon/spa Sporting goods store Craft store Home décor/houseware store Shoe store Catalog Office supply store Other 35.2% 33.0% 22.4% 21.2% 17.4% 16.0% 15.6% 14.0% 11.5% 9.5% 9.2% 8.0% 6.5% 5.8% 5.4% 4.3% 4.2% 3.0% 2.7% 2.4% 4.2% nrf.com/url TOP GIFT CARDS CONSUMERS ARE PLANNING TO GIVE THIS SEASON Total gift card spending is expected to reach $27.5 billion, up from last year’s $26 billion. Gift card purchasers will likely purchase an average of three gift cards, each worth $46. nrf.com/holiday
  17. 17. nrf.com/url TOP PAYMENT METHODS FOR THE HOLIDAYS Almost 40% of consumers will purchase their holiday gifts by using a credit or debit card. Another 56% said they will use PayPal. nrf.com/holiday % Using Credit or Debit Cards — Historical 18.8% 18% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Credit Card Debit Card / Check Card
  18. 18. nrf.com/url ARE RETAILERS’ RETURN POLICIES FAIR? nrf.com/holiday YesNo 91.1% 8.9% An overwhelming majority of consumers find return policies to be fair and 33% of consumers include gift receipts most of the time. Last year, consumers only returned 4% of their gifts, on average, with two-thirds saying they didn’t return any of their gifts.
  19. 19. nrf.com/url TOP TOYS FOR BOYS 1 LEGO 15.4% 2 Cars Trucks 7.7% 3 Video Games 6.3% 4 Hot Wheels 5.6% 5 Star Wars 4.7% 6 Drone 3.0% 7 Pokemon 2.9% 8 PlayStation 4 2.7% 9 Xbox One 2.5% 10 Paw Patrol 2.4% 11 Nerf 2.3% T12 Marvel Action Figures 2.2% T12 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2.2% 13 Action/Superhero Figures 2.0% 14 Remote Controlled Vehicle 1.9% 15 Transformers 1.6% nrf.com/holiday
  20. 20. nrf.com/url TOP TOYS FOR GIRLS 1 Barbie 22.6% 2 Dolls 11.5% 3 Shopkins 4.9% 4 Hatchimals 4.1% 5 LEGO 3.4% 6 American Girl 3.3% 7 Disney Frozen 3.0% 8 Trolls 2.8% 9 Monster High 2.4% 10 My Little Pony 1.8% 11 Disney Princess 1.6% 12 Apparel/Accessories 1.4% 13 Video Games 1.1% T14 DC Super Hero Girls 0.9% T14 Dollhouse 0.9% T14 Pokemon 0.9% nrf.com/holiday
  21. 21. 101.9 million 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 Yes – In stores Yes – Online No Number of Consumers Who Shopped/ Planned to Shop Over Thanksgiving Weekend 99.1 million 103.1 million 108.5 million 93.9 million 93.4 million 2015 2016 154.4 million consumers shopped or planned to shop over Thanksgiving weekend, either online or in stores. Millennials were the most likely to shop over the holiday weekend. THANKSGIVING WEEKEND SHOPPERS nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday
  22. 22. WHERE CONSUMERS SHOPPED IN-STORE Department store Discount store Electronics store Clothing or accessories store Grocery store/supermarket Local/small business Drug store Other Specialty store Crafts or fabrics store Outlet stores Thrift stores/resale shops Other 50.9% 34.2% 31.8% 28.4% 24.6% 11.9% 11.2% 10.2% 8.8% 7.9% 5.1% 6.2% Type of Stores for In-Store Shoppers Department, discount and electronics stores are the most popular for in-store shoppers, in line with last year. nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday
  23. 23. $299.60 $289.19 $229.56 $214.13 2015 2016 2015 2016 Total Holiday Purchases (among weekend shoppers) Total Gift Purchases (among weekend purchasers) nrf.com/url TOTAL SPENDING OVER THANKSGIVING WEEKEND The average holiday spending over the weekend reached $289, of which $214 was spent on gifts. Both figures are down slightly from last year, but still relatively on par. nrf.com/holiday
  24. 24. nrf.com/url CONSUMERS ARE SHOPPING DUE TO PROMOTIONS nrf.com/holiday 0% – None of my purchases were on sale 1% to 10% 11% to 25% 26% to 50% 51% to 75% 76% to 99% 100% – All of my purchases were on sale 7.0% 5.3% 7.7% 16.2% 15.5%21.1% 36.2% Percent of Purchases Driven Specifically by Promotions (among weekend purchasers) Over one-third of shoppers said that all of their weekend purchases were driven specifically by sales. That’s up 11.4% from last year.
  25. 25. 2015 2016 # of Consumers Planning to Shop Online for Cyber Monday 121.3 million 122.2 million nrf.com/url This year, 122.2 million plan to shop online for Cyber Monday, up slightly from last year. CYBER MONDAY nrf.com/holiday
  26. 26. nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday Yes Maybe No Percent Planning to Shop on Super Saturday 19.4% 46.5% 34.2% 156 MILLION CONSUMERS PLAN TO OR WILL SHOP ON SUPER SATURDAY For the first time ever, the survey asked consumers if they planned to shop on Super Saturday, December 17. Two-thirds might or will shop on Super Saturday.
  27. 27. nrf.com/url WHEN CONSUMERS THINK THEY’LL BUY THEIR LAST GIFT nrf.com/holiday Earlier than Sunday, December 18 Sunday, December 18 Monday, December 19 Tuesday, December 20 Wednesday, December 21 Thursday, December 22 Friday, December 23 Saturday, December 24 Sunday, December 25 After Sunday, December 25 When Consumers Will Buy Last Gift 38.8% 7.1% 5.3% 8.5% 8.1% 6.3% 12.2% 8.7% 0.5% 4.5% Almost half plan to buy their last gift a full week before Christmas, but two in 10 plan to wait until the last minute.
  28. 28. nrf.com/url HOW MUCH SHOPPING HAS BEEN COMPLETED? nrf.com/holiday Similar to previous years, come early December, only one in 10 have finished their holiday shopping. The majority still have half or more of their shopping left. Not started yet (0%) 1% to 10% 11% to 25% 26% to 50% 51% to 75% 76% to 99% 100% – FINISHED 10.1% 15.1% 11.6% 12.6% 16.0% 17.2% 17.4% Percentage of Shopping Completed
  29. 29. nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday REASONING FOR HAVING HALF OR LESS OF SHOPPING COMPLETED 72 percent of those who’ve completed half or less of their shopping are still in wait-mode. They say it’s because they’re still deciding what to buy or waiting for requests from loved ones. I am still trying to figure out what to buy I am still waiting for the best deals on holiday merchandise Holiday shopping is a necessary evil, and I put it off for as long as possible I'm waiting for a holiday/year-end bonus to fund my shopping plans I have other priorities before December I am a procrastinator It helps me spread out my holiday shopping budget I like the thrill of last-minute shopping Other I am waiting for family members/friends to let me know what they want as gifts I am busy with other activities which delay/ restrict the time I have to holiday shop I like to shop for the holiday season during the holiday season Why Shoppers Have Only Finished Half or Less of Their Holiday Shopping 44.7% 27.2% 27.1% 25.4% 22.5% 22.3% 20.2% 16.3% 9.5% 8.0% 7.0% 4.0%
  30. 30. nrf.com/url GIFTS ALREADY BOUGHT THIS SEASON Most popular gift purchases this season include clothing/accessories, toys and gift cards. Types of Gifts Purchased So Far 2288..33%% Clothing or clothing accessories Toys Gift cards/gift certificates Books, CDs, DVDs, videos or video games Consumer electronics or computer- related accessories Personal care or beauty items Food/ candy Home décor or home-related furnishings Jewelry or precious metal accessories Sporting goods or leisure items Home improvement items or tools Flowers/ plants Other 50.3% 35.5% 34.1% 32.9% 22.6% 20.7% 20.4% 18.9% 16.6% 12.9% 9.4% 3.2% 9.9% nrf.com/holiday
  31. 31. Gifts of Experience I'm planning to give a gift of experience I would love to receive a gift of experience None of the above 22.8% 38.1% 47.5% nrf.com/url Men are more likely than the general population to give a gift of experience, but less likely to want one. Women are the opposite: They’re more likely to want one, but less likely to give. GIFTS OF EXPERIENCE nrf.com/holiday
  32. 32. WHERE CONSUMERS PLAN TO DO REMAINDER OF SHOPPING Over half plan to finish the rest of their holiday shopping online, which is a survey high. Millennials (62 percent) are significantly more likely than older generations to complete their shopping online. Where Consumers Plan to Finish Holiday Shopping (only top responses shown) Online Department store Discount store Clothing or Accessories store Electronics store Local/Small business Grocery store/supermarket Outlet stores 52.3% 42.0% 27.2% 20.9% 18.0% 14.4% 12.9% 9.9% nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday
  33. 33. Similar to last year, those who receive gift cards will likely wait for really good sales. Another two in 10 will use their cards as quickly as they get them. RECEIVING GIFT CARDS I'll watch for a really good sale or promotion to maximize the value of my gift card(s) My gift cards generally end up at the bottom of a drawer, purse, or wallet – and I forget to spend them I don't anticipate receiving any gift cards this holiday season I'll use my gift cards as quickly as I receive them I tend to re-gift my gift cards to someone else or try to sell them for cash I'll save my gift cards for a rainy day or sometime when I feel the need to treat myself Gift Card Use 40.7% 22.3% 18.6% 1.6% 0.6% 16.3% nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday
  34. 34. nrf.com/url Over two-thirds plan to shop after-Christmas sales, either online or in the stores, up slightly from last year. Millennials are the most likely to do so, with approximately eight in 10 planning on it. AFTER-CHRISTMAS SALES Percent Planning to Shop After-Christmas Sales Yes – In store Yes – Online No 48.0% 44.3% 32.5% nrf.com/holiday
  35. 35. nrf.com/holiday This SlideShare will be updated at the same time we release any new data. nrf.com/holiday

×