2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Supply

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Marcus Stewart, Energy Supply Manager, on our energy supply projections from the 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios report.

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2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Supply

  1. 1. Twitter: #ukenergy email: transmission.ukfes@nationalgrid.com Energy Supply Marcus Stewart : Energy Supply Manager
  2. 2. X Generation position 2014 vs 2013 2 Net Position -0.9 GW But 3GW of new projects cancelled... Closures -3.7 GW Returns 2 GW Openings 1.1 GW
  3. 3. 0 5 10 15 20 25 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35 2035/36 InstalledCapacityGW GG14 SP14 NP14 LCL 14 Average Gas Increase In all scenarios IED opt out plant run down by early 2020’s 3 Aggressive closure profile across all scenarios with GG and SP at lower end Minimal amount of plant remaining is assumed to comply with IED or be converting to CCS Early IED opt out The increase in gas fired plant in order to compensate for coal closure profile Coal
  4. 4. Security of supply outlook 4 LOLE* Decreasing security of supply Increasing security of supply *Loss of Load Expectation (LoLE) is measurement of the risk to consumers’ power supplies, and the Reliability Standard set by government is the maximum acceptable value of LoLE.
  5. 5. Security of supply outlook 5 Mid decade products SBR and DSBR to address EMR Capacity mechanism in place LOLE
  6. 6. 2020 Generation mix % 339 TWh 338 TWh 345 TWh 353 TWh 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 6
  7. 7. 2035 Generation mix % 424 TWh 331 TWh 339 TWh 406 TWh 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 7
  8. 8. 8 Key Messages Aggressive coal closure assumptions Gas most likely to fill gap, but market intervention needed Beyond 2020 technology range broadens across the scenarios
  9. 9. Shale - Hero or Zero? 9
  10. 10. 2035 Import dependency 10 90%40% 50% 70%
  11. 11. Low Carbon Life 11
  12. 12. No Progression 12
  13. 13. 13 Key Messages Shale assumptions determine import dependency Large variation across scenarios Existing importation capacity can meet all scenarios

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